The Minutes of Bill Gurley https://minutesof.com/bill-gurley/ Bill Gurley: 1228 verbatim quotes from 143 appearances on regulatory capture, venture capital and ipo market. Latest August 2026. Every quote timestamped… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:21:58 +0000 Gurley cites Ferriss has sold 10 million books, has 2 million email subscribers, and podcast approaching a bil https://minutesof.com/q/cce2f69e-547b-47ea-9837-db5dc76975c7/ https://minutesof.com/q/cce2f69e-547b-47ea-9837-db5dc76975c7/ “He sold 10,000,000 books. I got a list here. He's got 2,000,000 email subs, over a thousand blog posts, 7,000,000 followers on social media, and his podcast is about to pass a billion downloads.” — BlackNova Productions Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:36:09 +0000 Gurley asks about Spotify's success competing with Apple's podcast player. https://minutesof.com/q/ac553977-5327-4082-8fd4-6ef471893dff/ https://minutesof.com/q/ac553977-5327-4082-8fd4-6ef471893dff/ “You're in a position to know this. I'm not how successful have they been encroaching on Apple's podcast player or others?” — BlackNova Productions Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:36:09 +0000 Gurley wonders if LinkedIn had avoided monetizing InMail like Twitter it could have hosted powerful conversati https://minutesof.com/q/c01264f9-8098-4469-9cda-8289eb3da654/ https://minutesof.com/q/c01264f9-8098-4469-9cda-8289eb3da654/ “I've wondered over the years if LinkedIn hadn't polluted their InMail and made it monetized. Yep. And they had done what Twitter did, how much of the most powerful conversations in the world would happen?” — BlackNova Productions Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:36:09 +0000 Gurley says he learned waiting solves many problems, citing Silicon Valley Bank weekend as example. https://minutesof.com/q/2694825c-e8a0-48fb-9243-38cc5e918c51/ https://minutesof.com/q/2694825c-e8a0-48fb-9243-38cc5e918c51/ “And I used I I I used to go deep in them, and this weekend was a perfect example, and there's a good transition to Silicon Valley Bank.” — BlackNova Productions Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:36:09 +0000 Gurley says many people acted manically during SVB crisis weekend but problems resolved by morning. https://minutesof.com/q/9ffe4f8c-125f-4078-84d6-c21b1f5fc003/ https://minutesof.com/q/9ffe4f8c-125f-4078-84d6-c21b1f5fc003/ “But a lot of people did a lot of crazy manic things this weekend that didn't matter. Yeah. Because it all got solved this morning.” — BlackNova Productions Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:36:09 +0000 Gurley told OpenTable CFO they would reach 99% market share, not 17%, due to network effects understanding. https://minutesof.com/q/1eb4b408-38eb-4bf1-8e61-01bdef163820/ https://minutesof.com/q/1eb4b408-38eb-4bf1-8e61-01bdef163820/ “And he said, oh, no one gets more than 17% market share, all the businesses I've worked with. Because I believed in network effects, I was like, we're gonna get 99.” — BlackNova Productions Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:34:54 +0000 Gurley says Uber in San Francisco was 20 times bigger than the taxi market, proving TAM conservatism wrong. https://minutesof.com/q/5ab0ffc7-704b-4cb1-aa64-fa8498e4e0ac/ https://minutesof.com/q/5ab0ffc7-704b-4cb1-aa64-fa8498e4e0ac/ “By the time I wrote that, I already knew that Uber in San Francisco was 20 x bigger than the taxi market in San Francisco.” — BlackNova Productions Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:34:54 +0000 Gurley discovered Amazon was running same-day delivery experiments on top of Uber using burner phones and driv https://minutesof.com/q/1de082cf-3681-416b-8030-2799026d6c09/ https://minutesof.com/q/1de082cf-3681-416b-8030-2799026d6c09/ “And I'm like, what happens at 02:30? He goes, I have to meet at the Amazon warehouse at 02:30.” — BlackNova Productions Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:34:54 +0000 Gurley says most companies over $20-30M in revenue wouldn't run Amazon's experimental hack approach due to acc https://minutesof.com/q/43f17b9f-5bc9-492c-b7d0-a83ee459c65f/ https://minutesof.com/q/43f17b9f-5bc9-492c-b7d0-a83ee459c65f/ “I know for a fact that most of the companies I've worked with that have gotten over 20 or 30,000,000 in revenue would not run that experiment because someone would say, oh, we won't know how to do the accounting. We can't like, that's too much of a hack, like, whatever.” — BlackNova Productions Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:34:54 +0000 Gurley quotes Bezos saying internal experiments get killed only when the last person with good judgment gives https://minutesof.com/q/bec814f7-65f4-4f96-974a-25111131fde8/ https://minutesof.com/q/bec814f7-65f4-4f96-974a-25111131fde8/ “They ask him, when does a internal experiment get killed? And he said, when the last person with good judgment gives up.” — BlackNova Productions Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:34:54 +0000 Gurley recounts being told to gather 15 people with maximum donation checks just to meet a congressman. https://minutesof.com/q/fd06c04c-ea46-46c6-a4df-c79daeed173f/ https://minutesof.com/q/fd06c04c-ea46-46c6-a4df-c79daeed173f/ “And I'm like, what do you mean a bunch of people? I just wanted to say hello. Noah, I need you to get 15 people in the conference room.” — BlackNova Productions Tue, 04 Aug 2026 07:34:54 +0000 Gurley notes colleges previously prohibited major selection until end of sophomore year to allow exploration. https://minutesof.com/q/65ebe77e-dc98-41b5-9aac-5a4c02541bd5/ https://minutesof.com/q/65ebe77e-dc98-41b5-9aac-5a4c02541bd5/ “when I was young, when you went to college, they would not allow you to pick a major until the end of your sophomore year.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Gurley criticizes modern colleges requiring 17-year-olds to commit to majors when applying. https://minutesof.com/q/e9681d04-f478-49b1-99e4-87ad4cff1278/ https://minutesof.com/q/e9681d04-f478-49b1-99e4-87ad4cff1278/ “Today, at many schools, you have to apply to the major. So you're talking to a 17 year old saying, what do you wanna do the rest of your life?” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Gurley finds Chinese entrepreneurs have the most cultural affinity with American entrepreneurs globally. https://minutesof.com/q/6f304bac-c4cf-4ded-91cf-2b04bc7b6f51/ https://minutesof.com/q/6f304bac-c4cf-4ded-91cf-2b04bc7b6f51/ “of all the places I've visited around the world, the one place where I find the most cultural affinity between entrepreneurs, between American entrepreneurs and some foreign entrepreneurs, China. Like, the most like mindedness.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Gurley says Chinese entrepreneurs have greatest cultural affinity with American entrepreneurs globally based o https://minutesof.com/q/1b18b742-c7ee-4d44-a3be-9b6f3c35635d/ https://minutesof.com/q/1b18b742-c7ee-4d44-a3be-9b6f3c35635d/ “the one place where I find the most cultural affinity between entrepreneurs, between American entrepreneurs and some foreign entrepreneurs, China. Like, the most like mindedness.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Gurley says he developed skills in synthesizing and communicating through blogs and podcasts during his ventur https://minutesof.com/q/47df155f-b877-4466-be3e-9919afb359a8/ https://minutesof.com/q/47df155f-b877-4466-be3e-9919afb359a8/ “I've, I've developed a pretty good rhythm about being able to synthesize and communicate. So I did that in my venture career through blogs and eventually things like podcasts.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Gurley's regulatory capture talk at All In conference received four and a half million views. https://minutesof.com/q/5a9b4549-c4ba-4d94-a6da-a4d8391e15e0/ https://minutesof.com/q/5a9b4549-c4ba-4d94-a6da-a4d8391e15e0/ “I'd I tested doing it outside my field with a talk I gave at the all in conference on regulatory capture, which had, like, four and a half million views.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Gurley says people elect officials based on intentions without tracking whether they create actual change. https://minutesof.com/q/70aedfc2-0b46-4b37-803f-9992f1038c23/ https://minutesof.com/q/70aedfc2-0b46-4b37-803f-9992f1038c23/ “And I think we elect a lot of people because we like what they're saying, but no one follows up to see if they can actually create change.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Gurley suggests highlighting state versus state competition in US modeled on China's provincial competition. https://minutesof.com/q/d2245f30-b32b-4a5e-b75c-b906db58c59b/ https://minutesof.com/q/d2245f30-b32b-4a5e-b75c-b906db58c59b/ “I'm I'm enamored by the provincial competition in China, and I wonder if shining a brighter light on state versus state competition could lead to some pretty amazing and positive things for our own country.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Gurley coined the phrase regulation is the friend of the incumbent to describe how incumbents use regulation t https://minutesof.com/q/071a9fbf-9796-4a05-b974-2d0f48956429/ https://minutesof.com/q/071a9fbf-9796-4a05-b974-2d0f48956429/ “I have I have a phrase I use, regulation is the friend of the incumbent.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Gurley says telecom regulatory capture equals or exceeds health care and finance levels. https://minutesof.com/q/2b89babe-418a-4c96-9a45-e830ea493939/ https://minutesof.com/q/2b89babe-418a-4c96-9a45-e830ea493939/ “there are many I mean, first of all, the the the telecom space is probably equal to health care and finance in terms of regulatory capture.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Gurley explains telecoms passed state laws preventing cities from competing despite receiving pole rights from https://minutesof.com/q/68104e5d-22d9-4f56-ba1c-306aa556dc7a/ https://minutesof.com/q/68104e5d-22d9-4f56-ba1c-306aa556dc7a/ “And they were able to pass laws that said cities can't compete with them even though they're getting their poll rights from the the cities themselves.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 I spent twenty five years in Silicon Valley, it was titled 2851. And I I used that title because I had a punch https://minutesof.com/q/73fe2654-4fe2-49cb-b30c-11d28124149d/ https://minutesof.com/q/73fe2654-4fe2-49cb-b30c-11d28124149d/ “I spent twenty five years in Silicon Valley, it was titled 2851. And I I used that title because I had a punch line at the end where I said the reason Silicon Valley works so well is because it's so far fucking away from Washington DC, and that was the distance in miles.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Gurley says Silicon Valley has become more rooted in Washington DC than ever before since he gave his talk. https://minutesof.com/q/cb22a217-c81c-4190-b3a8-9f27013f7e8b/ https://minutesof.com/q/cb22a217-c81c-4190-b3a8-9f27013f7e8b/ “But since I gave that talk, I'd say Silicon Valley has gotten more, like, rooted in Washington DC than it ever has more. Than it ever has before.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Gurley says Anthropic's early lobbying efforts are comparable only to FTX and SBF, with people in every state. https://minutesof.com/q/2afbab4b-0826-4acd-bd3b-f21b355f591e/ https://minutesof.com/q/2afbab4b-0826-4acd-bd3b-f21b355f591e/ “There's Anthropic's lobbying the only company that has lobbied as much as Anthropic early in its life was was FTX and SBF.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Gurley compares Anthropic's early lobbying intensity to FTX, noting ground presence in every state. https://minutesof.com/q/e90ec3d7-690c-411a-abf3-11fcd4e1fa90/ https://minutesof.com/q/e90ec3d7-690c-411a-abf3-11fcd4e1fa90/ “Anthropic's lobbying the only company that has lobbied as much as Anthropic early in its life was was FTX and SBF.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Like, they he also lobbied heavily, but they have people on the ground in every state. They're the ones pushin https://minutesof.com/q/26430594-fc82-4c0f-b3b2-e17a8c9a309e/ https://minutesof.com/q/26430594-fc82-4c0f-b3b2-e17a8c9a309e/ “Like, they he also lobbied heavily, but they have people on the ground in every state. They're the ones pushing for state by state regulation.” — Bill Gurley Tue, 21 Jul 2026 17:02:49 +0000 Gurley argues that for proactive continuous learners, AI is a jetpack that enables them to achieve more faster https://minutesof.com/q/63703631-a706-485d-9fec-eed78dac23c2/ https://minutesof.com/q/63703631-a706-485d-9fec-eed78dac23c2/ “For that person, AI is a jetpack. Like they can now do more things faster than they wanted to do, and they can achieve more than they were able to before.” — Bill Gurley Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:30:41 +0000 Gurley says founders are the chief salesperson for their company, selling to investors, employees, and custome https://minutesof.com/q/36e93003-d494-4ec2-8a46-4af33c99a678/ https://minutesof.com/q/36e93003-d494-4ec2-8a46-4af33c99a678/ “But if you're a founder, you're selling to new investors, you're selling to employees, you own the company culture and the perception of the company, you're striking deals, you're selling to customers, you're just out selling all you're the number one sale you're the chief salesperson for your company,” — Bill Gurley Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:30:41 +0000 Gurley argues founders are constantly selling to investors, employees, customers, and in deals. https://minutesof.com/q/bb21d6dd-5932-4a68-99bd-48ebf6f3a9cf/ https://minutesof.com/q/bb21d6dd-5932-4a68-99bd-48ebf6f3a9cf/ “if you're a founder, you're selling to new investors, you're selling to employees, you own the company culture and the perception of the company, you're striking deals, you're selling to customers, you're just out selling all” — Bill Gurley Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:30:41 +0000 Gurley says venture capitalists who see successful pivots learn it's all about the founder. https://minutesof.com/q/166336d4-444e-4185-be47-b98f59d9e1cb/ https://minutesof.com/q/166336d4-444e-4185-be47-b98f59d9e1cb/ “And for any venture capitalist that's been through one of those pivots, they're famously known as pivots now, it's all about the person. Like, it's all about the founder.” — Bill Gurley Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:30:41 +0000 Gurley cites that new CEO hires are a fifty-fifty bet at best, questioning why investors would take that risk. https://minutesof.com/q/40ff08b4-cf88-433b-9872-97652526b9f4/ https://minutesof.com/q/40ff08b4-cf88-433b-9872-97652526b9f4/ “I'm sure it's not scientific, but as new CEO hires a fifty fifty bet at best.” — Bill Gurley Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:30:41 +0000 Gurley explains VCs can only join about two boards per year, unlike public investors evaluating unlimited posi https://minutesof.com/q/907de551-83d8-4736-bf81-e78cf0968d04/ https://minutesof.com/q/907de551-83d8-4736-bf81-e78cf0968d04/ “If it's positive IRR and I'll make 14%, I'll do it. Yep. But venture capitalists have a limited number of boards they can go on, probably two a year.” — Bill Gurley Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:30:41 +0000 Gurley explains VCs can only join two boards yearly so must emotionally commit, not just meet hurdle rates. https://minutesof.com/q/45bd9854-83a8-44d0-84d7-a2b0b991ed0d/ https://minutesof.com/q/45bd9854-83a8-44d0-84d7-a2b0b991ed0d/ “But venture capitalists have a limited number of boards they can go on, probably two a year. And and so they don't have limited shot unlimited shots on goal.” — Bill Gurley Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:30:41 +0000 Gurley explains VCs invest in only two boards yearly requiring emotional commitment not just IRR. https://minutesof.com/q/ec0804c1-2a6d-4da7-aa83-562faccfd9e0/ https://minutesof.com/q/ec0804c1-2a6d-4da7-aa83-562faccfd9e0/ “venture capitalists have a limited number of boards they can go on, probably two a year. And and so they don't have limited shot unlimited shots on goal.” — Bill Gurley Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:30:41 +0000 Gurley explains VCs are limited to about two boards yearly so cannot fund everything above hurdle rate. https://minutesof.com/q/714f3697-2ff0-4569-90f8-03b7d8bc555f/ https://minutesof.com/q/714f3697-2ff0-4569-90f8-03b7d8bc555f/ “And and so they don't have limited shot unlimited shots on goal. They can't fund everything that's over 12% hurdle rate.” — Bill Gurley Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:30:41 +0000 Gurley notes owning 100% of a $20 million exit creates lifetime wealth and attracts more acquirers than larger https://minutesof.com/q/17717505-f71b-4440-84f3-caef76ecf3b8/ https://minutesof.com/q/17717505-f71b-4440-84f3-caef76ecf3b8/ “Your boss won't care. If you own a 100% of a $20,000,000 company, that's lifetime wealth.” — Bill Gurley Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:30:41 +0000 Gurley argues owning 100% of a $20M company beats owning diluted equity in $500M sale. https://minutesof.com/q/989ad6ba-be21-40f4-a53c-674037297390/ https://minutesof.com/q/989ad6ba-be21-40f4-a53c-674037297390/ “If you own a 100% of a $20,000,000 company, that's lifetime wealth. Like, trying to make $20,000,000 selling a company for 500,000,000, that's hard because it's hard to sell if” — Bill Gurley Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:30:41 +0000 Gurley explains liquidation preference means common shareholders only benefit after $500M raised is repaid. https://minutesof.com/q/7e0138ad-f8a5-411d-97bf-10d038ba2ba2/ https://minutesof.com/q/7e0138ad-f8a5-411d-97bf-10d038ba2ba2/ “if you've raised in these days of these AI rounds, if you raise 500,000,000, Lake Common doesn't even participate until you get a sale over that, technically.” — Bill Gurley Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:30:41 +0000 Gurley argues that becoming the most AI-productive person in your field makes you indispensable and sought-aft https://minutesof.com/q/c727c5c6-f418-4490-a239-27b96cf08737/ https://minutesof.com/q/c727c5c6-f418-4490-a239-27b96cf08737/ “And if you are the most AI productive human in your field, you're not getting fired. Like, you're you're the one they're asking all the questions of.” — Bill Gurley Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:30:41 +0000 Gurley says being the most AI-productive person in your field makes you indispensable and sought-after. https://minutesof.com/q/2e318d61-d081-48e4-8f57-bdcdd58d0dd3/ https://minutesof.com/q/2e318d61-d081-48e4-8f57-bdcdd58d0dd3/ “And if you are the most AI productive human in your field, you're not getting fired. Like, you're you're the one they're asking all the questions of. Like, what's this capable of?” — Bill Gurley Wed, 15 Jul 2026 16:30:41 +0000 Gurley says most VCs are so focused on AI that non-AI companies can't raise money at any valuation. https://minutesof.com/q/d554338f-6c56-4342-8d40-c2135869c4b5/ https://minutesof.com/q/d554338f-6c56-4342-8d40-c2135869c4b5/ “So you really have this massive black, white, have, have not situation where the AI companies are raising money at crazy valuations and the non AI companies can't raise money at any valuation.” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley says venture firms now proactively push money on working companies rather than waiting for companies to https://minutesof.com/q/33328e91-96e3-4a86-a1e8-b57706d01435/ https://minutesof.com/q/33328e91-96e3-4a86-a1e8-b57706d01435/ “They all now believe in network effects and power laws. And so if a company's working, they proactively go to them and ask them to take money, which is what you just referred to.” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley contrasts old fundraising where companies decided timing versus today where investors proactively offer https://minutesof.com/q/c45ea03a-bf5f-4d2e-9c42-49e96666d877/ https://minutesof.com/q/c45ea03a-bf5f-4d2e-9c42-49e96666d877/ “And today people are just showing up at the door and saying, take the money. In many cases, with the implication, if you don't take it, they'll give it to the competitor.” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley warns that high valuations represent discounted future expectations, creating risk for founders. https://minutesof.com/q/61eeb6f9-bae8-42cc-b4d4-e039e5c7332d/ https://minutesof.com/q/61eeb6f9-bae8-42cc-b4d4-e039e5c7332d/ “The other thing that founders should always realize that they unfortunately, especially young ones, don't understand. Valuations represent discounted future expectations.” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley warns that higher valuations create higher expectations where slight missteps put companies underwater. https://minutesof.com/q/57620673-e793-4b0d-819a-af788755f600/ https://minutesof.com/q/57620673-e793-4b0d-819a-af788755f600/ “Valuations represent discounted future expectations. So the higher the valuation you take, the more is expected of you and the slight misstep and you could be way underneath.” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley explains private cap tables are structured to only go up, unlike public stocks. https://minutesof.com/q/0a06511c-242c-42de-b348-ed2d247f9a88/ https://minutesof.com/q/0a06511c-242c-42de-b348-ed2d247f9a88/ “private one last thing. Yeah. Sorry. Private cap tables are not structured very well to go down.” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley explains private cap tables are structurally built to only go up unlike public stocks. https://minutesof.com/q/4c728910-d595-46c5-9294-db3275d4810a/ https://minutesof.com/q/4c728910-d595-46c5-9294-db3275d4810a/ “Private cap tables are not structured very well to go down. It would take forever to explain exactly why that is with lick preference stacks and whatnot and ratchets, but they're built to kind of only go up and public companies stocks can go up and down.” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley cites Uber burning $2B yearly, now generating over $10B in annual free cash flow. https://minutesof.com/q/800bc5a3-0a2a-41c5-ae68-feac635778e5/ https://minutesof.com/q/800bc5a3-0a2a-41c5-ae68-feac635778e5/ “Uber's a case where we were burning 2,000,000,000 a year and Dara, you know, has it now generating over 10,000,000,000 a year in free cash flow.” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley says being conservative isn't realistic as seven companies each raised over $200 million in coding and https://minutesof.com/q/16792076-7704-4f74-9f25-5119116b41b2/ https://minutesof.com/q/16792076-7704-4f74-9f25-5119116b41b2/ “Because then we'll just throw out two examples, the coding space and the legal AI space. There's seven companies that have raised over $200,000,000” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Because then we'll just throw out two examples, the coding space and the legal AI space. There's seven compani https://minutesof.com/q/9ae1cf63-50a9-41f2-b9cf-7891113e877c/ https://minutesof.com/q/9ae1cf63-50a9-41f2-b9cf-7891113e877c/ “Because then we'll just throw out two examples, the coding space and the legal AI space. There's seven companies that have raised over $200,000,000 and they're all gonna mount customer acquisition strategies with those dollars.” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley notes seven companies raised over $200M in coding and legal AI, making conservative approaches unviable https://minutesof.com/q/d6e55694-c96b-4231-a809-7b98a5e3b292/ https://minutesof.com/q/d6e55694-c96b-4231-a809-7b98a5e3b292/ “There's seven companies that have raised over $200,000,000 and they're all gonna mount customer acquisition strategies with those dollars.” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley suspects some AI companies are reselling tokens below cost, creating unsustainable growth. https://minutesof.com/q/65d95540-d4fb-4137-a233-cc618df80c3c/ https://minutesof.com/q/65d95540-d4fb-4137-a233-cc618df80c3c/ “I suspect there are companies that are selling, reselling tokens from Amazon or Anthropic or whoever at a price lower than they're paying for them. And which looks like growth, but it is unsustainable.” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley says Bezos looks for unbounded determinism when making angel investments. https://minutesof.com/q/afd06c8c-a524-40b3-94dc-63e87b00b428/ https://minutesof.com/q/afd06c8c-a524-40b3-94dc-63e87b00b428/ “Bezos likes to talk. I because I asked him once how he had all these amazing angel investments. He he's looking for unbounded determinism.” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley says when people are fascinated by something, others naturally connect them with opportunities. https://minutesof.com/q/21f5df04-89d0-47b4-b332-b7c555099dc6/ https://minutesof.com/q/21f5df04-89d0-47b4-b332-b7c555099dc6/ “So if you knew someone who was just wouldn't stop chatting about modern architecture or whatever, and then you run into someone else and you go, oh, you should talk to Sally like this.” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley cites Neil Cotchill using AI throughout Supreme Court tariff case preparation, making top lawyer run fa https://minutesof.com/q/4cf6751a-cba8-4710-ad62-44ede9b60215/ https://minutesof.com/q/4cf6751a-cba8-4710-ad62-44ede9b60215/ “I was just at Ted and Neil Cotchill, who is one of the most famous lawyers in the world, he just argued the case where they beat the tariff in front of the Supreme Court.” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley says college admissions pressure creates sixth-grade resume arms race leaving kids overscheduled and un https://minutesof.com/q/c5a376ff-a00e-42fc-aabc-28a48c6f0100/ https://minutesof.com/q/c5a376ff-a00e-42fc-aabc-28a48c6f0100/ “I think the schools are so hard to get into that parents begin this thing in sixth grade, which Jonathan Hite calls the resume arms race, where you're just cello lessons, Mandarin lessons, lacrosse lessons, the kids are over scheduled” — Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 Gurley cites Daniel Pink's research showing regrets of inaction are the number one regret people have at end o https://minutesof.com/q/b4ede822-b51a-449c-a608-2c6de83a891f/ https://minutesof.com/q/b4ede822-b51a-449c-a608-2c6de83a891f/ “And the number one thing people regret at the end of their lives is what he calls boldness regrets, their regrets of inaction.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 Gurley argues fascination makes learning free and energizing rather than draining like studying uninteresting https://minutesof.com/q/4adf06a3-1799-458d-b1c9-6736419a5745/ https://minutesof.com/q/4adf06a3-1799-458d-b1c9-6736419a5745/ “when you're fascinated with something, the learning is free. Like like you you study things for fun.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 Gurley argues fascination makes learning effortless and energizing, while unfascinating work depletes energy a https://minutesof.com/q/bcdaea8d-47b1-4657-bec6-ab3f4f10002e/ https://minutesof.com/q/bcdaea8d-47b1-4657-bec6-ab3f4f10002e/ “Like like you you study things for fun. Like like you get done reading it, you go, ah, you wanna tell somebody you're excited, you get energy.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 Gurley argues studying what fascinates you generates energy while unwanted study depletes it. https://minutesof.com/q/fdc57c7a-a6e5-4157-811e-40232b09df80/ https://minutesof.com/q/fdc57c7a-a6e5-4157-811e-40232b09df80/ “Like like you get done reading it, you go, ah, you wanna tell somebody you're excited, you get energy. When you study things you don't wanna be studying, they sap energy.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 Gurley argues the best jobs for thriving come from creating opportunities yourself rather than waiting for pos https://minutesof.com/q/ba5af02d-78dc-46a2-b363-4fc8d1b3abb2/ https://minutesof.com/q/ba5af02d-78dc-46a2-b363-4fc8d1b3abb2/ “I think the best jobs for, like, you to really thrive are ones where you go and create the opportunity yourself.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 Gurley advises moving to your industry's epicenter because it amplifies learning, mentorship, peers, and optio https://minutesof.com/q/127fe817-7bd6-43b7-9244-353ee5fdfd2d/ https://minutesof.com/q/127fe817-7bd6-43b7-9244-353ee5fdfd2d/ “If your industry has an epicenter, and we're sitting in an epicenter, but like if like, and you are confident this is your fascination lane, you should go.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 Gurley argues moving to an industry's epicenter amplifies all career advantages including learning, mentors, a https://minutesof.com/q/6c7a995c-b40d-4049-aaa9-61085bab94e2/ https://minutesof.com/q/6c7a995c-b40d-4049-aaa9-61085bab94e2/ “Because all the other principles in the book get better. So I talk about continuous learning, I talk about finding mentors, I talk about finding peers.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 Gurley says being at the industry epicenter amplifies all career principles because continuous learning, mento https://minutesof.com/q/9845fc2f-de1e-4517-a77b-0e9e713b5bb2/ https://minutesof.com/q/9845fc2f-de1e-4517-a77b-0e9e713b5bb2/ “all the other principles in the book get better. So I talk about continuous learning, I talk about finding mentors, I talk about finding peers. Like, all those things in the epicenter happen continuously.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 Gurley describes how MrBeast at 17 formed a peer group of four who spent 16 hours daily together learning YouT https://minutesof.com/q/2fb8f493-bf95-4249-949a-cc77bfa15d0f/ https://minutesof.com/q/2fb8f493-bf95-4249-949a-cc77bfa15d0f/ “And he was trying to figure out how to be better at the game of YouTube, and he met three other people that were on that same journey.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 Gurley recounts how MrBeast and three peers spent sixteen hours daily on Skype for four years learning YouTube https://minutesof.com/q/9263177e-94da-4167-936e-a47f96e87a5b/ https://minutesof.com/q/9263177e-94da-4167-936e-a47f96e87a5b/ “And they claim, this is probably an overstatement, but they claimed they were on Skype together sixteen hours a day for four years.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 Gurley recounts MrBeast and peers claiming sixteen-hour daily Skype calls for four years learning YouTube toge https://minutesof.com/q/ba976c45-807b-4bc0-adea-74dea0ef1031/ https://minutesof.com/q/ba976c45-807b-4bc0-adea-74dea0ef1031/ “they claim, this is probably an overstatement, but they claimed they were on Skype together sixteen hours a day for four years. And they shared everything they learned together.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 Gurley proposes using AI to simulate working in different careers for a week each to test fit. https://minutesof.com/q/77ad29f9-22f9-4030-a35b-3faa4b5507da/ https://minutesof.com/q/77ad29f9-22f9-4030-a35b-3faa4b5507da/ “you could use AI and just imagine yourself in a career for a week. Like, cause you could just talk to AI every day.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 Gurley quotes Mark Cuban dividing people into those using LLMs to learn faster versus skip learning. https://minutesof.com/q/3713bce4-ca87-4ddf-bfca-95b0e709fc17/ https://minutesof.com/q/3713bce4-ca87-4ddf-bfca-95b0e709fc17/ “Mark Cuban said there are two types of people in this world, those that use LLMs to learn faster than they ever could before and those that use LLMs to skip learning altogether.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 And I mean so at this recent TED, I just went to Neil Cotyal who argued the supreme court case on the tariffs https://minutesof.com/q/e480481d-3182-43ab-a74e-6143ac364723/ https://minutesof.com/q/e480481d-3182-43ab-a74e-6143ac364723/ “And I mean so at this recent TED, I just went to Neil Cotyal who argued the supreme court case on the tariffs and won.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 The biggest problem is if you're a AI skeptic because you're never trying to figure that out. And the truth of https://minutesof.com/q/15bb1fb6-8220-47fb-9aae-9dc1eb91e618/ https://minutesof.com/q/15bb1fb6-8220-47fb-9aae-9dc1eb91e618/ “The biggest problem is if you're a AI skeptic because you're never trying to figure that out. And the truth of the matter is humans have evolved with their tools forever.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 Gurley argues competing without AI is like farming with shovel against modern equipment, zero chance. https://minutesof.com/q/910160e0-ae68-4264-9d50-26e0d7cbd109/ https://minutesof.com/q/910160e0-ae68-4264-9d50-26e0d7cbd109/ “If if I ask you to compete with a farmer that has modern farming equipment and I give you a shovel and a hoe and an oxen, there's zero chance you're gonna be competitive.” — Jackson Square Ventures Book Club Wed, 08 Jul 2026 23:30:51 +0000 Gurley defines complex systems as multi-variable non-linear systems that can behave unpredictably when one var https://minutesof.com/q/f1e6e6c8-30c2-4fe8-bbd8-373ba107633a/ https://minutesof.com/q/f1e6e6c8-30c2-4fe8-bbd8-373ba107633a/ “And multi variable non linear systems are very hard to predict. They can behave one way for a long time, and then one variable can switch and they can behave another way.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley learned from Bill Miller that network effects justify Amazon growing at unreasonable rates for extended https://minutesof.com/q/1dad726e-c24d-496f-b737-c89aaf4ad012/ https://minutesof.com/q/1dad726e-c24d-496f-b737-c89aaf4ad012/ “value just means that the asset is underpriced relative to what you think it will be worth in the future.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley says Wall Street is the buyer of the product venture capitalists create through M&A or IPO. https://minutesof.com/q/02dd2c0f-8caf-4c67-8163-de90100d86ec/ https://minutesof.com/q/02dd2c0f-8caf-4c67-8163-de90100d86ec/ “You know, I've always thought of Wall Street as the buyer of the product that venture capitalists create.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley argues understanding the masters of your field is wildly differentiating in job interviews. https://minutesof.com/q/076eca21-0d69-4f3d-8c50-0453465e7962/ https://minutesof.com/q/076eca21-0d69-4f3d-8c50-0453465e7962/ “Imagine you're interviewing for a job at P and G or Pepsi out of college, and there's 20 people there, and you're the one that understands the masters of marketing more than the others, and you're able to bring that up in the interview. Isn't that wildly differentiating?” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley argues knowing the masters of your field would be wildly differentiating in job interviews. https://minutesof.com/q/6e61cf29-c540-49cd-8be4-4253f6ed0e9d/ https://minutesof.com/q/6e61cf29-c540-49cd-8be4-4253f6ed0e9d/ “Imagine you're interviewing for a job at P and G or Pepsi out of college, and there's 20 people there, and you're the one that understands the masters of marketing more than the others, and you're able to bring that up in the interview.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley uses a farming metaphor to explain why China's open source AI models may innovate faster than closed US https://minutesof.com/q/a9c81e3e-d001-4250-b1e7-78614d5bd9c4/ https://minutesof.com/q/a9c81e3e-d001-4250-b1e7-78614d5bd9c4/ “I'll use a simple metaphor, but imagine you have two societies and both agricultural societies.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley argues China's open-source AI models create a system capable of innovating faster than closed US models https://minutesof.com/q/2369caae-466c-4705-a395-fa6e43953281/ https://minutesof.com/q/2369caae-466c-4705-a395-fa6e43953281/ “And the other society, when the farmers come to market, they're forced to share best practices with all the other farmers. Which which one of those is gonna gonna evolve faster?” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley says he wouldn't have believed Mag Seven would turn $50-100B annual free cash flow to zero via CapEx. https://minutesof.com/q/7fc89112-8507-4b35-920f-772137efbe56/ https://minutesof.com/q/7fc89112-8507-4b35-920f-772137efbe56/ “If you told me five years ago that these, mag seven would become worth $3,000,000,000,000 and then turn around and take their free cash flow from 50 to a 100,000,000,000 a year down near zero because they were gonna spend it all on CapEx, I'd have been like, no way. Like, I wouldn't have believed it.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley says venture capital is getting more risk seeking due to belief in power laws. https://minutesof.com/q/ca6ec235-bb1d-4c90-884a-fc89177c6191/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca6ec235-bb1d-4c90-884a-fc89177c6191/ “the venture capital community as a whole is is getting more risk seeking and taking on more risk because of their knowledge of how things have played out in the past.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley critiques circular deals where cloud providers fund AI companies to spend on their own services. https://minutesof.com/q/dd36ea89-f539-4537-a05a-f02ef1abd4ce/ https://minutesof.com/q/dd36ea89-f539-4537-a05a-f02ef1abd4ce/ “Imagine you're a cloud service provider and you notice that this company, Anthropic, wants to develop this model. It's gonna cost maybe $5,000,000,000, but they don't have that money.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley contrasts stablecoins' instant penny transfers with traditional credit cards' two-plus percent fees. https://minutesof.com/q/188e41ff-4d33-458d-bf59-8b11dec600ce/ https://minutesof.com/q/188e41ff-4d33-458d-bf59-8b11dec600ce/ “If you have a Coinbase account, you can put your money in a USDC stablecoin and earn 4%. And within seconds immediately transfer money to someone else for pennies.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley says Visa and Mastercard have 60 percent operating margins as bank-created duopolies. https://minutesof.com/q/4b0b9713-4889-4a2c-8e84-fca19578e257/ https://minutesof.com/q/4b0b9713-4889-4a2c-8e84-fca19578e257/ “They have like 60% operating margins and they're they're duopolies and and they were created by the banks.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley says China's instant transfers enabled Alibaba and Tencent to build wallets used for everything from st https://minutesof.com/q/7ccd8a14-1d4b-4a16-b032-832c7ce48006/ https://minutesof.com/q/7ccd8a14-1d4b-4a16-b032-832c7ce48006/ “In China, because they had this digital immediate transfer, Alibaba and Tencent were able to very quickly build digital wallets that people carry around.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley describes how China's digital payment system lets people pay for everything via QR codes. https://minutesof.com/q/2d416d69-fd6f-49d7-9093-572ae454a584/ https://minutesof.com/q/2d416d69-fd6f-49d7-9093-572ae454a584/ “You scan a QR code, like, at a you check out of a restaurant. Like, can just pay at your table. There's a QR code on the table.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley says he would offer Elon's Tesla compensation package to every company he's worked with. https://minutesof.com/q/0e85272c-8b19-4977-a595-2cd36856cc47/ https://minutesof.com/q/0e85272c-8b19-4977-a595-2cd36856cc47/ “that package, that type of package that they did for Elon, I've said this, you know, publicly, I would agree to that type of package for every company I've ever worked with, and most CEOs wouldn't take it. It basically says you don't make money unless the stock goes way up.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley defends Tesla's Elon Musk compensation as aligned with shareholders despite ISS opposition. https://minutesof.com/q/5a13778a-d077-470f-8557-0ec4921e8df3/ https://minutesof.com/q/5a13778a-d077-470f-8557-0ec4921e8df3/ “It basically says you don't make money unless the stock goes way up. And if your stock goes way up, you make an obscene amount of money.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley quotes Bezos saying he only asks if entrepreneurs will do this no matter what. https://minutesof.com/q/575d07b2-67f6-495b-a7d9-c4ce8f5c5faa/ https://minutesof.com/q/575d07b2-67f6-495b-a7d9-c4ce8f5c5faa/ “when I meet an entrepreneur, there's only one thing I ask myself. Is this person gonna do this no matter what?” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Gurley recalls Uber's mega-burn era had no precedent, leaving board with no mentors or case studies. https://minutesof.com/q/3146a5d6-a15a-4728-abd5-fdd21f7ccaf1/ https://minutesof.com/q/3146a5d6-a15a-4728-abd5-fdd21f7ccaf1/ “You could take the board members from Walmart and Costco and GM and and General Electric or whatever you consider the top 10 best company, and they would have never been in this situation before.” — The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 Workplace deaths fell by 40 x. Life expectancy went up 60%, and global poverty went from 75% of humanity to un https://minutesof.com/q/ee3cc796-ba53-4a12-b647-730af737c260/ https://minutesof.com/q/ee3cc796-ba53-4a12-b647-730af737c260/ “Workplace deaths fell by 40 x. Life expectancy went up 60%, and global poverty went from 75% of humanity to under 10%.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 29 May 2026 22:47:49 +0000 Gurley lists specific metrics showing technology and capitalism drove massive human progress since 1891 despit https://minutesof.com/q/2aca191f-f082-4a44-81a0-b321f9ba5eb1/ https://minutesof.com/q/2aca191f-f082-4a44-81a0-b321f9ba5eb1/ “All those things happened because of technology, innovation, and capitalism, which is exactly what Leo the thirteenth was warning against.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 29 May 2026 22:47:49 +0000 Gurley says Anthropic uniquely both leads AI development and is the most negative public commentator on AI ris https://minutesof.com/q/32d33841-24df-470a-acdf-59cbce29a0fa/ https://minutesof.com/q/32d33841-24df-470a-acdf-59cbce29a0fa/ “I have to tell you that Anthropic is a mystery to me. I've never ever seen a company that is both leading their field and the most negatively outspoken commenter on what they do.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 29 May 2026 22:47:49 +0000 Gurley says Anthropic uniquely leads AI while being the most negatively outspoken about their own field. https://minutesof.com/q/d8f43153-a96f-4d3e-ad13-7cdcc5788d28/ https://minutesof.com/q/d8f43153-a96f-4d3e-ad13-7cdcc5788d28/ “I've never ever seen a company that is both leading their field and the most negatively outspoken commenter on what they do. I've just never seen it.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 29 May 2026 22:47:49 +0000 Gurley cites Dario envisioning AI systems deciding resource allocation to humans based on what AIs think makes https://minutesof.com/q/1d02062d-b9f0-4dcb-80d6-b77ca205051c/ https://minutesof.com/q/1d02062d-b9f0-4dcb-80d6-b77ca205051c/ “And then he says, it could be a capitalist economy of AI systems, which then give out resources to humans based on some secondary economy of what the AI systems think makes sense to reward in humans.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 29 May 2026 22:47:49 +0000 Gurley quotes Dario envisioning AI systems deciding resource allocation to humans in a secondary economy based https://minutesof.com/q/56c70525-0e26-4826-a2bd-f878aa5752a1/ https://minutesof.com/q/56c70525-0e26-4826-a2bd-f878aa5752a1/ “he says, it could be a capitalist economy of AI systems, which then give out resources to humans based on some secondary economy of what the AI systems think makes sense to reward in humans.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 29 May 2026 22:47:49 +0000 Gurley says Anthropic is midwifing a deity, and he's uncertain which theory is scarier: regulatory capture or https://minutesof.com/q/eb1791ac-c0cf-4184-a426-f4f6bc2fdcf5/ https://minutesof.com/q/eb1791ac-c0cf-4184-a426-f4f6bc2fdcf5/ “I think they're midwifing a deity gear. And and I don't know which one I'm more afraid of, the regulatory capture or the second theory I call the Doctor.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 29 May 2026 22:47:49 +0000 Gurley says Anthropic is midwifing a deity and he fears that more than regulatory capture. https://minutesof.com/q/edb26cd9-48f4-49df-9eea-1eb6a0f70327/ https://minutesof.com/q/edb26cd9-48f4-49df-9eea-1eb6a0f70327/ “I think they're midwifing a deity gear. And and I don't know which one I'm more afraid of, the regulatory capture or the second theory I call the Doctor. Frankenstein theory.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 29 May 2026 22:47:49 +0000 Gurley says open source connectors like MCP can commoditize AI model interfaces similar to Google's Kubernetes https://minutesof.com/q/513cf376-60ea-46f0-9750-634aadf377de/ https://minutesof.com/q/513cf376-60ea-46f0-9750-634aadf377de/ “Some of the smarter people in the open source community have suggested to me that we need more open source connectors of types. So MCP, is actually run by the Linux Foundation.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 29 May 2026 22:47:49 +0000 Gurley argues AI productivity gains will be competed away through lower prices, not retained as higher margins https://minutesof.com/q/5a74db41-fe73-4bf3-8db5-0364c51b4091/ https://minutesof.com/q/5a74db41-fe73-4bf3-8db5-0364c51b4091/ “I don't think there's any scenario where you just do more for less and all of a sudden everyone has 70% operating margins. That's not gonna happen.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 29 May 2026 22:47:49 +0000 Gurley argues AI productivity gains won't lead to 70% margins because competition will lower prices instead. https://minutesof.com/q/87992770-69e8-450c-b3c4-1c7b7d80c347/ https://minutesof.com/q/87992770-69e8-450c-b3c4-1c7b7d80c347/ “I don't think there's any scenario where you just do more for less and all of a sudden everyone has 70% operating margins.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 29 May 2026 22:47:49 +0000 Gurley argues AI competition will drive prices down, creating productivity boom with cheaper goods rather than https://minutesof.com/q/a836bc2e-b869-476e-8ac8-dad40b65601e/ https://minutesof.com/q/a836bc2e-b869-476e-8ac8-dad40b65601e/ “And so the thing that could happen is we could have a productivity boom from lower priced goods and services.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 29 May 2026 22:47:49 +0000 Gurley read three biographies from different fields that inspired the framework for his book. https://minutesof.com/q/b3182ff8-db1a-400b-a3f0-3308a0085638/ https://minutesof.com/q/b3182ff8-db1a-400b-a3f0-3308a0085638/ “There was a period in my life about ten years ago, I was reading a lot of biographies and I read these three biographies of people that were in very different fields” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley profiles Bob Dylan, Danny Meyer, and Bobby Knight as three biographical subjects in his book. https://minutesof.com/q/dd5da98d-500a-415d-9dae-600f8eb6ae1f/ https://minutesof.com/q/dd5da98d-500a-415d-9dae-600f8eb6ae1f/ “Bob Dylan, Danny Meyer is a famous New York restaurateur who's probably spoken here before, and Bobby Knight.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley describes his father going from model airplanes to NASA control room for moon landing at age 33. https://minutesof.com/q/5597f699-f239-4796-9e7e-701fed2f2103/ https://minutesof.com/q/5597f699-f239-4796-9e7e-701fed2f2103/ “Like, think about the idea of falling in love with model airplanes as a kid and being in the control room when they land on the moon in 1969. He was born, he was 33.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley discovered his father wrote influential NASA paper on rocket atmospheric bounce at age 27. https://minutesof.com/q/2dc85483-c172-498b-bc2f-615835724008/ https://minutesof.com/q/2dc85483-c172-498b-bc2f-615835724008/ “And I looked at the date on that document and he was 27 years old when he wrote it.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley describes Danny Meyer creating a list of ten impressive people in his field and keeping journals studyi https://minutesof.com/q/5c011a18-7e28-40bf-9559-30cb1e8f96df/ https://minutesof.com/q/5c011a18-7e28-40bf-9559-30cb1e8f96df/ “Danny created a list right when he decided to go do it of the 10 most impressive people in the restaurant industry at that moment in time, from his perspective, and started keeping a journal on each one of them and studying them from afar.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley started as computer engineer with Commodore VIC-20 but left after projects became repetitive and boring https://minutesof.com/q/60bc4fad-b982-421a-86be-dbdbc2b7167f/ https://minutesof.com/q/60bc4fad-b982-421a-86be-dbdbc2b7167f/ “I started as a computer engineer. I was fascinated with a Commodore VIC-twenty. I fell in love.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley says he started as computer engineer but grew bored when third project looked like the second and first https://minutesof.com/q/ecd4b1df-68ef-4bb9-b615-d7408561b6bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/ecd4b1df-68ef-4bb9-b615-d7408561b6bc/ “It was my fascination but after I got in the role for a couple years the third project looked like the second looked like the first and I started to get bored” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley recommends asking whether you want to do current job thirty years from now as career test. https://minutesof.com/q/17199e3a-5b5b-4947-a27c-223390258313/ https://minutesof.com/q/17199e3a-5b5b-4947-a27c-223390258313/ “and I asked myself a question which I think anyone can use in any job you're in I said do I still want to be doing this thirty years from now and when I got when I asked myself that question it was a quick no” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 I asked myself a question which I think anyone can use in any job you're in I said do I still want to be doing https://minutesof.com/q/c7089779-4bdf-48e4-aad0-72f5deabe115/ https://minutesof.com/q/c7089779-4bdf-48e4-aad0-72f5deabe115/ “I asked myself a question which I think anyone can use in any job you're in I said do I still want to be doing this thirty years from now and when I got when I asked myself that question it was a quick no like a quick no and then I moved” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley argues studying industry pioneers differentiates you and tests whether you're truly fascinated by the f https://minutesof.com/q/1bbe1fe9-edeb-47d7-91e6-ee6e48b1b7b2/ https://minutesof.com/q/1bbe1fe9-edeb-47d7-91e6-ee6e48b1b7b2/ “And one, I think you develop a really awesome bedrock for thinking about your industry and just knowing this history. It's a good test as to whether you're really fascinated by it” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley says Brett Taylor became an AI expert in three years despite not being one previously. https://minutesof.com/q/cbc020bc-17a7-40f2-974a-e79a4460b2c1/ https://minutesof.com/q/cbc020bc-17a7-40f2-974a-e79a4460b2c1/ “Well guess what like three years ago he wasn't an AI expert but he became one.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley says most Silicon Valley people have innate FOMO about new technology, installing tools immediately out https://minutesof.com/q/b928c5c8-f58e-474c-a29c-6bd0c80fd9f5/ https://minutesof.com/q/b928c5c8-f58e-474c-a29c-6bd0c80fd9f5/ “most people that live in Silicon Valley just have this innate FOMO built into them about what's next.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley advises seeking mentors two steps above you rather than shooting too high like CEOs. https://minutesof.com/q/ca69c003-ef78-4baf-ad91-c38a926ea241/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca69c003-ef78-4baf-ad91-c38a926ea241/ “the person that's two steps above you on the ladder has never been asked to be a mentor, and that's probably your best place to start, and they'll be flattered that you ask.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley says the number of US public companies is less than half the peak, calling it a big problem. https://minutesof.com/q/b5a85579-edb6-4b01-9b23-cada5d511bed/ https://minutesof.com/q/b5a85579-edb6-4b01-9b23-cada5d511bed/ “the number of public companies that exist in The US today is less than half what the peak was. And companies just aren't going public. And I think it's a big problem.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley argues learning has never been easier or freer than today for high-agency people. https://minutesof.com/q/628ae1b7-efd9-4bb2-88c8-c87fd48cdd1b/ https://minutesof.com/q/628ae1b7-efd9-4bb2-88c8-c87fd48cdd1b/ “For people that have high agency and want to learn, there's never been a time in the history of the world where that is as easy and free as it is today.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley explains that when fascinated with something, learning gives energy rather than consuming it, creating https://minutesof.com/q/49a2ce34-71cc-49a0-a008-37b0afd2e6a1/ https://minutesof.com/q/49a2ce34-71cc-49a0-a008-37b0afd2e6a1/ “when you're fascinated with something, obsessive with something, the learning's free. And what I mean by free is it doesn't suck energy, it gives you energy.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley criticizes Dario for being both top cheerleader and doomer while raising billions and cashing out emplo https://minutesof.com/q/435fa68a-bc00-41d2-8593-07086bc9a2e3/ https://minutesof.com/q/435fa68a-bc00-41d2-8593-07086bc9a2e3/ “Dario, the guy leading a company that's raising billions of dollars and cashing out billions in secondary to his employees is simultaneously the top cheerleader and the top doomer.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 15 May 2026 23:32:47 +0000 Gurley argues high agency people studying the edge of their field are safer than those with rote algorithms. https://minutesof.com/q/c2d715e1-88b7-4a6e-b594-4b5cc2ce6309/ https://minutesof.com/q/c2d715e1-88b7-4a6e-b594-4b5cc2ce6309/ “I think people that are high agency and fascinated are, they not only study the history of their field and all that, but they're constantly studying the edge of their field, which is a much safer place to be.” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley warns that rote knowledge taught in school is already in AI models, making it an unsafe career position https://minutesof.com/q/33aa1a17-600d-48aa-ac3b-57a768c6977a/ https://minutesof.com/q/33aa1a17-600d-48aa-ac3b-57a768c6977a/ “If you just arm yourself with the road algorithms that they taught you in school, those are in the models.” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley predicts AI will cause high-agency fascinated people to separate even more from others. https://minutesof.com/q/bb6d68b1-6b16-4f3f-a2f0-e6bb7121506d/ https://minutesof.com/q/bb6d68b1-6b16-4f3f-a2f0-e6bb7121506d/ “I just think, in fact, one thing I might worry about in a, in a AI world is these high agency fascinated people might separate. Even more.” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley explains venture capitalists live in fear of missing the one or two asymmetric deals each year. https://minutesof.com/q/bb27b2e4-358f-4d96-bd9f-4161b22aa2cd/ https://minutesof.com/q/bb27b2e4-358f-4d96-bd9f-4161b22aa2cd/ “Once again, because of this asymmetric outcome thing, live in fear of missing this one or two deals a year. There's like, how could you possibly minimize the chance of not finding that?” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley argues older investors build cynical mental models that make them miss next disruptive thing. https://minutesof.com/q/42936be2-556f-4b3e-8f43-c9a349d06410/ https://minutesof.com/q/42936be2-556f-4b3e-8f43-c9a349d06410/ “Two, I think, and this all goes back to the asymmetric optimism thing, as you get older, you build more mental models and you become more cynical.” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley says aging venture capitalists build mental models that create cynicism, causing them to miss disruptiv https://minutesof.com/q/9879a132-e095-4bd1-be25-6e538779a359/ https://minutesof.com/q/9879a132-e095-4bd1-be25-6e538779a359/ “I think, and this all goes back to the asymmetric optimism thing, as you get older, you build more mental models and you become more cynical.” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley says SoftBank threatened to fund competitors if founders refused money, forcing preemptive rounds. https://minutesof.com/q/fc1a511d-12dd-40f9-b6aa-909b0296d8ec/ https://minutesof.com/q/fc1a511d-12dd-40f9-b6aa-909b0296d8ec/ “And there's an implicit threat that, at least at SoftBank, Masa was very direct about and not implicit. That if you don't take it, I'll give it to your competitor.” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley notes seven AI coding or lawyer companies raised hundreds of millions, unlike venture capital he practi https://minutesof.com/q/2beeea34-9776-4109-9773-36d2dd4648b6/ https://minutesof.com/q/2beeea34-9776-4109-9773-36d2dd4648b6/ “There's seven companies that have raised hundreds of millions of dollars. And that's not the venture capital I practiced.” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley cites Uber shifting from burning $2B yearly to generating $10B in free cash flow through unit economics https://minutesof.com/q/f6c24726-1992-4b0d-a107-884385704465/ https://minutesof.com/q/f6c24726-1992-4b0d-a107-884385704465/ “I mean, Uber was burning 2,000,000,000 a year and Dara had 10,000,000,000 in free cash flow last year. Being able to make that shift, it's gonna require an innate understanding of your true unit economics.” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley invokes Carlota Perez to argue real disruptive waves attract speculators and charlatans, creating bubbl https://minutesof.com/q/46d1c7e4-b301-42d2-98e8-c39af26423b2/ https://minutesof.com/q/46d1c7e4-b301-42d2-98e8-c39af26423b2/ “And what happens is with a wave that's real, people get rich quick. When people get rich quick, fools rush in. Like speculators, charlatans, they come in.” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley argues China built a highly competitive system inside communism through provincial competition mechanis https://minutesof.com/q/746c1171-f47b-4bdf-af74-4ebc82fb005d/ https://minutesof.com/q/746c1171-f47b-4bdf-af74-4ebc82fb005d/ “They have built, inside of a communist country, have built a system that's highly competitive. And it comes from leveraging provincial competition and some other things.” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley says China had 150 EV car companies, creating more intense competition than in the US. https://minutesof.com/q/aa4ed541-05b1-4955-bd33-a4233a464c32/ https://minutesof.com/q/aa4ed541-05b1-4955-bd33-a4233a464c32/ “And you'll see, there were 150 EV car companies there. So hyper competition. In fact, I could argue the model they've created has more intense competition than we have here.” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley states South Korea builds nuclear plants at one fourth the US cost, calling it alarming. https://minutesof.com/q/226edc58-204f-473d-b45a-0c4cc365ace5/ https://minutesof.com/q/226edc58-204f-473d-b45a-0c4cc365ace5/ “South Korea, not China, South Korea can build a nuclear fission plant for one fourth the price that we can in The US. And someone needs to be massively alarmed by that.” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley states South Korea builds nuclear fission plants for one-fourth the US cost. https://minutesof.com/q/55de8053-7173-4127-93c7-013114657fc1/ https://minutesof.com/q/55de8053-7173-4127-93c7-013114657fc1/ “South Korea, not China, South Korea can build a nuclear fission plant for one fourth the price that we can in The US.” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley repeats MrBeast claim that fifth random person on four-year Skype calls would have become millionaire. https://minutesof.com/q/465f3689-8ecf-4393-a9c8-b118662ba700/ https://minutesof.com/q/465f3689-8ecf-4393-a9c8-b118662ba700/ “And he said if a fifth person had been on those calls, they would have made a million dollars also. Regardless of who the individual was.” — MIT Sloan VCPE Mon, 11 May 2026 19:59:13 +0000 Gurley argues that consulting, venture capital, and law offer breadth through exposure to multiple clients and https://minutesof.com/q/3343eb58-d91e-41e2-babf-8a114ad22815/ https://minutesof.com/q/3343eb58-d91e-41e2-babf-8a114ad22815/ “If you're a consultant, if you're a venture capitalist, if you're a lawyer, like you'll have clients across multiple, you know, places and you'll get to study more things.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 27 Apr 2026 23:00:02 +0000 Gurley shares he studied stocks at night as an engineer before switching to Wall Street career. https://minutesof.com/q/a41f48d9-6036-450a-bae9-9fa9a3fcf6bb/ https://minutesof.com/q/a41f48d9-6036-450a-bae9-9fa9a3fcf6bb/ “And I didn't say to myself, Oh, maybe that's a sign, but it was, right?” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 27 Apr 2026 23:00:02 +0000 Gurley advises people may not find career fit until 30s or 40s and should check yearly. https://minutesof.com/q/0561eb7e-f3b3-4a68-b5bc-381900bb0652/ https://minutesof.com/q/0561eb7e-f3b3-4a68-b5bc-381900bb0652/ “Some of these people didn't find their perfect fit until they're 30 or 40. And so get as many shots on goal.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 27 Apr 2026 23:00:02 +0000 Gurley describes mental exercise asking if he sees himself doing current job thirty years from now. https://minutesof.com/q/6c8ab3ee-3b69-41b6-be2b-258fb479e44a/ https://minutesof.com/q/6c8ab3ee-3b69-41b6-be2b-258fb479e44a/ “I had a mental exercise that I did in my first two stops in my career, where a couple of years in, said, Do I see myself doing this thirty years from now?” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 27 Apr 2026 23:00:02 +0000 Gurley cites survey data showing 60% of people would choose a different career if they could start over. https://minutesof.com/q/19161fac-898f-452d-8c70-b885560e82ca/ https://minutesof.com/q/19161fac-898f-452d-8c70-b885560e82ca/ “we did a survey where we asked people if you could go back in time and start your career over again, would you do something different? Six out of 10 said yes.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 27 Apr 2026 23:00:02 +0000 Gurley argues society pushes people toward safe jobs from well-intentioned worry about economic stability. https://minutesof.com/q/5e3307aa-0024-44ed-b090-e95a723bee42/ https://minutesof.com/q/5e3307aa-0024-44ed-b090-e95a723bee42/ “I think many of these parents and counselors are very well intentioned. I don't think they're out to make a mistake. A lot of them are worried about the economic stability of the child.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 27 Apr 2026 23:00:02 +0000 Gurley proposes viewing any profession as artisanship, noting people don't typically think of lawyers this way https://minutesof.com/q/e193f3ee-7c8f-4a36-9c7c-2765ddd7bce8/ https://minutesof.com/q/e193f3ee-7c8f-4a36-9c7c-2765ddd7bce8/ “I have this interesting theory where almost any job you could think of it as being an artisan.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 27 Apr 2026 23:00:02 +0000 Gurley says human relationships and strong peer and mentor networks will matter way more in AI era. https://minutesof.com/q/14e06fa4-f501-482c-a028-88b018224e51/ https://minutesof.com/q/14e06fa4-f501-482c-a028-88b018224e51/ “A lot of people have a theory that I think is reasonable that human relationships will matter way more. So, do you have a strong peer network? Do you have a strong mentor network?” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 27 Apr 2026 23:00:02 +0000 Gurley uses Bjorn Borg's failed comeback with outdated equipment to argue humans must evolve with their tools. https://minutesof.com/q/f7e2a87d-e587-4a45-9cd2-e55c352589bb/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7e2a87d-e587-4a45-9cd2-e55c352589bb/ “He tried to make a comeback at like 38 and he brought that old wooden racket out there and he got smoked.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 27 Apr 2026 23:00:02 +0000 Gurley argues humans evolve with their tools, comparing a farmer with tractor and drone to one with hoe and do https://minutesof.com/q/ec1437c1-4b68-4573-a037-963819f1c1d8/ https://minutesof.com/q/ec1437c1-4b68-4573-a037-963819f1c1d8/ “Like you're if you're a farmer with a tractor and a drone thing and all this stuff, you're going to run over a farmer with a hoe and a donkey, right?” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 27 Apr 2026 23:00:02 +0000 Gurley urges embracing new AI tools despite their rapid arrival, comparing to technological evolution. https://minutesof.com/q/d88b5cf7-15a3-4d29-971a-9a633f2e21b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/d88b5cf7-15a3-4d29-971a-9a633f2e21b1/ “And so you have to think that way about these tools. This one came out as fast, I admit, but you to roll around in it.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 27 Apr 2026 23:00:02 +0000 Gurley says Bjorn Borg tried comeback with wooden racket after industry switched to graphite during his retire https://minutesof.com/q/129f60b6-ce3c-42a9-8d1a-1087d06b1616/ https://minutesof.com/q/129f60b6-ce3c-42a9-8d1a-1087d06b1616/ “He retired real early in his from a age perspective. Like, I think he was around 30, and he tried to make a comeback when he was, like, 36 or something.” — Tom Bilyeu Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley plans to identify policy issues where communication alone can shift public perception like nuclear ener https://minutesof.com/q/6cc672fe-0281-4863-8e75-6b64435183ce/ https://minutesof.com/q/6cc672fe-0281-4863-8e75-6b64435183ce/ “I'm I'm gonna look to see if I can find more things like that where just highlighting things and communicating could potentially change things.” — Tom Bilyeu Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley says regulation is the friend of the incumbent, used to raise prices and prevent competition. https://minutesof.com/q/5088e7fd-cd96-490d-8e28-742996e15d58/ https://minutesof.com/q/5088e7fd-cd96-490d-8e28-742996e15d58/ “I have a phrase I use, regulation is the friend of the incumbent. So they use it to actually raise prices, prevent competition, and further in ensconce themselves in the leadership role they're already in.” — Tom Bilyeu Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley describes Comcast lobbyist who worked for mayor then became most important executive at Comcast. https://minutesof.com/q/d2a828bb-3680-4efe-824d-e6ec0ec6359d/ https://minutesof.com/q/d2a828bb-3680-4efe-824d-e6ec0ec6359d/ “There was a gentleman who was the head of the the head of lobbying at Comcast where I think New York Times or the Post, someone did a article where they said this is the most important executive at Comcast. And he had been working for the mayor before he went into that role.” — Tom Bilyeu Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley claims Anthropic has lobbied as much early in its life as FTX did, with people in every state. https://minutesof.com/q/54cb11fd-63e4-4494-97dd-45427d018d58/ https://minutesof.com/q/54cb11fd-63e4-4494-97dd-45427d018d58/ “Anthropic's lobbying the only company that has lobbied as much as Anthropic early in its life was was FTX and SBF. Like, they he also lobbied heavily.” — Tom Bilyeu Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley says Austin, one of the fastest growing cities, has seen rents fall for four years due to good policy. https://minutesof.com/q/936bd8e2-976c-4b52-b3f2-e2bfc7c17846/ https://minutesof.com/q/936bd8e2-976c-4b52-b3f2-e2bfc7c17846/ “One of the fastest growing cities in the nation, rents have fallen for four years. That's good policy.” — Tom Bilyeu Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley says it costs 400% more to build nuclear plants in US than in South Korea or China. https://minutesof.com/q/bd6849da-ba81-44bd-8403-379ef60f8995/ https://minutesof.com/q/bd6849da-ba81-44bd-8403-379ef60f8995/ “it costs four x, 400% more to build a a a fission nuclear plant, 70 year old technology in The US than it does in South Korea or China.” — Tom Bilyeu Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley warns US AI regulation could create a fence around America while China serves the rest of the world. https://minutesof.com/q/207e2db4-50ca-4a83-8176-b941d3714ecf/ https://minutesof.com/q/207e2db4-50ca-4a83-8176-b941d3714ecf/ “I think what may happen if you look at what happened with the Internet, there was a global market that the American company served, and there was a ring fence around China.” — Tom Bilyeu Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:01:05 +0000 I think what could happen with AI is we could build a fence around ourselves, and China could end up serving t https://minutesof.com/q/83ecd26c-a88f-4bdb-8672-337576a8c048/ https://minutesof.com/q/83ecd26c-a88f-4bdb-8672-337576a8c048/ “I think what could happen with AI is we could build a fence around ourselves, and China could end up serving the rest of the world.” — Tom Bilyeu Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:01:05 +0000 I think the marginal cost of a PCR test was below $2, and the average price that was recompensated by the gove https://minutesof.com/q/b2a182f4-2f3f-4fdc-965f-3d07044df609/ https://minutesof.com/q/b2a182f4-2f3f-4fdc-965f-3d07044df609/ “I think the marginal cost of a PCR test was below $2, and the average price that was recompensated by the government was over $100.” — Tom Bilyeu Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:01:05 +0000 We only had two manufacturers, and they charged, like, $12 a test, so 10 x higher. https://minutesof.com/q/2298d6b7-6c4d-497f-a116-2fe7befb18fc/ https://minutesof.com/q/2298d6b7-6c4d-497f-a116-2fe7befb18fc/ “We only had two manufacturers, and they charged, like, $12 a test, so 10 x higher.” — Tom Bilyeu Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley says he is seeing the most risk seeking venture capital behavior he has ever seen in his entire life. https://minutesof.com/q/0d969e05-e88f-47f3-a8da-dcac55b2f3f0/ https://minutesof.com/q/0d969e05-e88f-47f3-a8da-dcac55b2f3f0/ “You would have a hard time convincing me that risk capital is in shortage in America right now. I'm seeing the most risk seeking venture capital behavior I've ever seen in my entire life.” — Tom Bilyeu Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley cites Brett Taylor as example of founder who repots himself across technology waves from maps to social https://minutesof.com/q/5595f074-745a-4d7b-8b44-e30b60648589/ https://minutesof.com/q/5595f074-745a-4d7b-8b44-e30b60648589/ “He's just always right there as the thing changes and on top of the next thing.” — Forbes Tue, 21 Apr 2026 23:11:11 +0000 Gurley changed careers twice using the thirty-year test before finding his path to venture capital. https://minutesof.com/q/ea836ebf-cf49-4754-b6e0-e5c42d3fc38c/ https://minutesof.com/q/ea836ebf-cf49-4754-b6e0-e5c42d3fc38c/ “I went to MBA school, I went to Wall Street, worked there for three years, had the same discussion with myself, which got me looking in a different direction,” — Forbes Tue, 21 Apr 2026 23:11:11 +0000 Gurley describes woman who became top agent after discovering hundreds of support jobs surround individual tal https://minutesof.com/q/6bfa5da6-116d-45dc-8f51-813a53f96be7/ https://minutesof.com/q/6bfa5da6-116d-45dc-8f51-813a53f96be7/ “There was a woman that all she could think about was movies, and she didn't see herself as an actress, so she went and got a normal degree and didn't ever consider it.” — Forbes Tue, 21 Apr 2026 23:11:11 +0000 Well, biggest mistake I made in my career is when I was three years into the venture capital business, I met L https://minutesof.com/q/04752b21-480d-4192-9f36-1766cb3bfdb3/ https://minutesof.com/q/04752b21-480d-4192-9f36-1766cb3bfdb3/ “Well, biggest mistake I made in my career is when I was three years into the venture capital business, I met Larry and Sergey at their office with 25 employees.” — Forbes Tue, 21 Apr 2026 23:11:11 +0000 Gurley reveals he met Larry and Sergey when Google had 25 employees but Benchmark failed to invest. https://minutesof.com/q/324c3d29-cfe7-4d90-a852-e96208594306/ https://minutesof.com/q/324c3d29-cfe7-4d90-a852-e96208594306/ “I met Larry and Sergey at their office with 25 employees. They pitched Benchmark, and we failed to invest” — Forbes Tue, 21 Apr 2026 23:11:11 +0000 Gurley says OpenTable had the most intellectual appeal because Benchmark invested at three restaurants with a https://minutesof.com/q/79c471c3-6a9b-4308-8e84-6ec9e0315fd8/ https://minutesof.com/q/79c471c3-6a9b-4308-8e84-6ec9e0315fd8/ “The one that had kind of the most intellectual appeal was probably OpenTable because we invested when there were three restaurants on the network and had a theory that a network effect could take place where it could tip towards winter, take most.” — Forbes Tue, 21 Apr 2026 23:11:11 +0000 Gurley backed OpenTable with only three restaurants on the network based on network effect thesis. https://minutesof.com/q/248f40ae-860e-4b94-a51a-9e3e53b5b098/ https://minutesof.com/q/248f40ae-860e-4b94-a51a-9e3e53b5b098/ “we invested when there were three restaurants on the network and had a theory that a network effect could take place where it could tip towards winter, take most.” — Forbes Tue, 21 Apr 2026 23:11:11 +0000 Gurley argues software requiring deterministic data like financial ledgers is safer from AI disruption than tr https://minutesof.com/q/23a969a2-5061-4d6e-8304-9cb4a8df86ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/23a969a2-5061-4d6e-8304-9cb4a8df86ed/ “It needs to be quite deterministic, and so I think the software that's safer is one where there's a need for deterministic data,” — Forbes Tue, 21 Apr 2026 23:11:11 +0000 Gurley notes radiologists have increased in number despite AI automation speeding up reading scans. https://minutesof.com/q/f5741cb6-70f3-4781-9b64-e6ab061e6386/ https://minutesof.com/q/f5741cb6-70f3-4781-9b64-e6ab061e6386/ “I think there was someone at TED talking about the fact that the number of radiologists has gone up, not down, despite the fact that you can read these things so much faster.” — Forbes Tue, 21 Apr 2026 23:11:11 +0000 Gurley warns founder equity drops from 90% to 10% while market prefers $20-100M exits over billion dollar outc https://minutesof.com/q/5defb14b-5816-4802-b421-c1767848f717/ https://minutesof.com/q/5defb14b-5816-4802-b421-c1767848f717/ “And very quickly, almost in a flash before you know it, your founder's equity goes from 90% to 10%. And I've watched it happen over and over and again.” — Forbes Tue, 21 Apr 2026 23:11:11 +0000 And the world wants to do more M and A in the 20,000,000 to $100,000,000 tuck in range than they want to do bi https://minutesof.com/q/b58c16b4-2bd0-432e-bb8f-1599e32ed42b/ https://minutesof.com/q/b58c16b4-2bd0-432e-bb8f-1599e32ed42b/ “And the world wants to do more M and A in the 20,000,000 to $100,000,000 tuck in range than they want to do billion dollar exits.” — Forbes Tue, 21 Apr 2026 23:11:11 +0000 Gurley cites Tito's founder who worked twenty years in other fields before starting vodka company. https://minutesof.com/q/d47647f2-0f0e-4d84-9540-316f86013643/ https://minutesof.com/q/d47647f2-0f0e-4d84-9540-316f86013643/ “There's a gentleman named Burt Beveridge who was a seismologist undergrad, worked in oil and gas for ten years, got scared actually because he was in Latin America, things got dicey, became a mortgage broker for another ten years, and then one weekend convinced himself to launch a vodka company named Tito's,” — Forbes Tue, 21 Apr 2026 23:11:11 +0000 Gurley says Tito's generates 400 million dollars annual free cash flow with founder owning 100 percent. https://minutesof.com/q/5723a227-f8d2-41c0-b6c3-7bb67dc5b230/ https://minutesof.com/q/5723a227-f8d2-41c0-b6c3-7bb67dc5b230/ “which he owns 100% of, and I think it's doing $400,000,000 a year in free cash flow.” — Forbes Tue, 21 Apr 2026 23:11:11 +0000 Gurley says college prep system evolved so everyone feels forced to play resume-building game starting in sixt https://minutesof.com/q/a19056f4-8769-4380-88d2-bf2614514060/ https://minutesof.com/q/a19056f4-8769-4380-88d2-bf2614514060/ “I don't think there's anybody that's intentionally making wrong decisions, but the system has evolved to a place where everyone feels like they have to play the game.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley says competitive parents start building resumes by sixth grade with programmed activities, citing Haidt https://minutesof.com/q/e0d4c139-af50-4dfc-ae2a-a14faa0b1352/ https://minutesof.com/q/e0d4c139-af50-4dfc-ae2a-a14faa0b1352/ “by the time you're in sixth grade, if you're a kid, you know, in a in a competitive environment with competitive parents, they're like, you know, okay, we gotta start pound building that resume.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley cites data showing over 50% of people work outside their college major ten years after graduation. https://minutesof.com/q/bc259110-1a0c-4217-8fc7-1f501c90cc5b/ https://minutesof.com/q/bc259110-1a0c-4217-8fc7-1f501c90cc5b/ “Like over 50% of people are no longer working in the career that was was stated by their major. And I bet that number's getting worse.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley offers heuristic for career decisions: ask yourself if you see doing current job thirty years from now. https://minutesof.com/q/c39dbcb3-20f7-44e2-8652-b79b8d83cdc8/ https://minutesof.com/q/c39dbcb3-20f7-44e2-8652-b79b8d83cdc8/ “But I then had a reflection and this is the heuristic I think people can use. I, I one day thought to myself, do I see myself doing this thirty years from now?” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley describes his heuristic of asking whether he could see himself doing the same job thirty years later. https://minutesof.com/q/40bf8195-de3c-4907-a90a-aa29c7c3b491/ https://minutesof.com/q/40bf8195-de3c-4907-a90a-aa29c7c3b491/ “I one day thought to myself, do I see myself doing this thirty years from now?” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley explains that regrets of inaction intensify with age more than mistakes made. https://minutesof.com/q/9ce37508-4b9d-4056-ac74-487f82584e5c/ https://minutesof.com/q/9ce37508-4b9d-4056-ac74-487f82584e5c/ “Daniel has, in his book on regrets, talks a lot about regrets of inaction. He calls them boldness regrets.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley observes Silicon Valley has unusually high willingness to give advice to strangers, similar to Nashvill https://minutesof.com/q/1ef87871-f845-4846-8d8f-9749f2769ed9/ https://minutesof.com/q/1ef87871-f845-4846-8d8f-9749f2769ed9/ “In Silicon Valley, if you walk up to somebody that you don't know and ask them for advice, the probability that they say yes and spend time is higher than you would ever expect.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley recounts MrBeast and three peers Skyped sixteen hours daily for four years, all became millionaires wit https://minutesof.com/q/ab8b6ff2-34aa-47a1-8a1f-b3e818751e47/ https://minutesof.com/q/ab8b6ff2-34aa-47a1-8a1f-b3e818751e47/ “And they were doing a Skype call together for, he says, sixteen hours a day for four years. And they were sharing what they were learning.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley describes how MrBeast and three peers Skyped sixteen hours daily for four years, all becoming millionai https://minutesof.com/q/c553b4a7-8923-4afc-ad74-37bd10a5fd09/ https://minutesof.com/q/c553b4a7-8923-4afc-ad74-37bd10a5fd09/ “they were doing a Skype call together for, he says, sixteen hours a day for four years. And they were sharing what they were learning.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley describes MrBeast and three peers doing sixteen-hour daily Skype calls for four years, all becoming mil https://minutesof.com/q/67fdfca5-0ee9-416c-a371-66195d10b748/ https://minutesof.com/q/67fdfca5-0ee9-416c-a371-66195d10b748/ “he says, sixteen hours a day for four years. And they were sharing what they were learning. And they didn't view themselves as competitors. They all ended up with over a million followers.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley quotes MrBeast saying any random person on those Skype calls would have achieved the same millionaire s https://minutesof.com/q/f12a8554-5023-451e-890c-a293d9968744/ https://minutesof.com/q/f12a8554-5023-451e-890c-a293d9968744/ “And he said another thing which I think really drives home the point. He said, if any random person had been on those Skype calls, they would have achieved those same things.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley recounts MrBeast saying anyone on their sixteen-hour-a-day Skype calls would have succeeded on YouTube. https://minutesof.com/q/355d1f3f-9975-41cd-8cf4-f9ad2b0eee75/ https://minutesof.com/q/355d1f3f-9975-41cd-8cf4-f9ad2b0eee75/ “He said, if any random person had been on those Skype calls, they would have achieved those same things.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley quotes MrBeast reframing Gladwell's ten thousand hours as forty thousand when multiplied across four pe https://minutesof.com/q/868685c7-4238-406e-adea-943d70e82225/ https://minutesof.com/q/868685c7-4238-406e-adea-943d70e82225/ “MrBeast borrowed the Malcolm Gladwell ten thousand hours and said we got forty thousand hours because we had four of us. That's pretty profound way to say it, right? And so it all gets better.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues real disruptive waves like AI naturally create bubbles alongside genuine innovation. https://minutesof.com/q/562b8dc9-626b-4f01-b14d-58e8dfa3bdc7/ https://minutesof.com/q/562b8dc9-626b-4f01-b14d-58e8dfa3bdc7/ “And so I think that's where we are right now. It's real, it's disruptive, it's amazing, it it's changing a lot of different things in industry.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley contrasts dot-com era when companies went public at million monthly revenue versus today's opposite sta https://minutesof.com/q/4621ef8d-4c8c-4db3-a833-4195ae0036db/ https://minutesof.com/q/4621ef8d-4c8c-4db3-a833-4195ae0036db/ “In the .com period, if you had 1,000,000 a month a million a month in revenue, you went public. Here, the exact opposite.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley says AI companies now burn more than Uber's $2 billion annual losses that he found anxiety-inducing. https://minutesof.com/q/ffef1e34-a652-4c52-a111-33560e8e48aa/ https://minutesof.com/q/ffef1e34-a652-4c52-a111-33560e8e48aa/ “I thought losing 2,000,000,000 a year was nuts and very anxiety inducing, And these companies are doing more than that.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley cites rumors of thirty billion dollar Nvidia investment into OpenAI, calls modern venture capital sport https://minutesof.com/q/4869c3d0-0043-4407-9bc4-53ad3b71d2f7/ https://minutesof.com/q/4869c3d0-0043-4407-9bc4-53ad3b71d2f7/ “And so, there's rumors today of a $30,000,000,000 investment from Nvidia into OpenAi on top of everything they've already already raised and spent.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley cites rumors of thirty billion dollar Nvidia investment into OpenAI, calling it sport of kings venture https://minutesof.com/q/b7045076-603b-4c26-984a-54f91fc6ea97/ https://minutesof.com/q/b7045076-603b-4c26-984a-54f91fc6ea97/ “there's rumors today of a $30,000,000,000 investment from Nvidia into OpenAi on top of everything they've already already raised and spent.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley credits Pinker and others with shifting public perception on nuclear energy from negative to positive. https://minutesof.com/q/2fe3808f-17ee-46b4-8044-80eeb30f8c2d/ https://minutesof.com/q/2fe3808f-17ee-46b4-8044-80eeb30f8c2d/ “Like like, the the the world has vilified this technology. It's amazing technology. It's clean technology.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley credits Pinker, Musk, and others for shifting nuclear energy perception from vilified to positive five https://minutesof.com/q/41bdf8c3-f31e-4d2c-968c-30d9339df1ef/ https://minutesof.com/q/41bdf8c3-f31e-4d2c-968c-30d9339df1ef/ “Like like, the the the world has vilified this technology. It's amazing technology. It's clean technology. What Germany is doing is bad.” — Metis Strategy Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues society pushes people toward safe jobs out of worry about economic well-being, not to stifle cre https://minutesof.com/q/7945bbfa-f71b-47d0-8005-2dd4c87f0323/ https://minutesof.com/q/7945bbfa-f71b-47d0-8005-2dd4c87f0323/ “I always wanna say that because I don't think I don't think anyone's out to stifle creativity per se, but they worry. They worry about the kids' economic well-being.” — Aaron Lazar: Impossible Dreams Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:00:15 +0000 Gurley argues society pushes people toward safer jobs out of well-intentioned worry about economic well-being https://minutesof.com/q/987be8b9-6bc4-4f7a-a2eb-ece5f06b8e2c/ https://minutesof.com/q/987be8b9-6bc4-4f7a-a2eb-ece5f06b8e2c/ “They worry about the kids' economic well-being. They worry about, you know, their ability to have a family and put food on the table, and and they push people towards safer jobs.” — Aaron Lazar: Impossible Dreams Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:00:15 +0000 Gurley says the continuum between safe jobs and creative passionate jobs has gone too far to one side. https://minutesof.com/q/5763a111-62aa-49dc-b2da-8888b4d02e47/ https://minutesof.com/q/5763a111-62aa-49dc-b2da-8888b4d02e47/ “I think I think we the continuum between safe jobs and and and creative passionate jobs has has just gone too far to one side.” — Aaron Lazar: Impossible Dreams Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:00:15 +0000 Gurley says Seinfeld initially didn't know stand up comedy could be a real professional career. https://minutesof.com/q/4e71a0e9-84ed-4495-ab63-f545907cf622/ https://minutesof.com/q/4e71a0e9-84ed-4495-ab63-f545907cf622/ “Jerry Seinfeld was was wandering around New York thinking about what his career would be, and he had an inkling that he wanted to be a stand up comedian, but he didn't know that it was a real thing. He didn't know that you could actually go be successful and have a career.” — Aaron Lazar: Impossible Dreams Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:00:15 +0000 Gurley says ultra competitive college path creates zero sum mindset when most fields actually have tons of win https://minutesof.com/q/c8d98da3-41a8-43a6-a28f-f476f4c3e791/ https://minutesof.com/q/c8d98da3-41a8-43a6-a28f-f476f4c3e791/ “And in most fields, and I'm sure this is true in theater even though I've never worked in it, there's tons of winners.” — Aaron Lazar: Impossible Dreams Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:00:15 +0000 Gurley says people avoid industry epicenters fearing competition, but there are way more jobs and learning bec https://minutesof.com/q/8609346c-a4dc-4106-91e7-87e1fa13b2c0/ https://minutesof.com/q/8609346c-a4dc-4106-91e7-87e1fa13b2c0/ “Peers are easier. They're all around all the time. It's people, I think, don't do it because they fear it's too much competition, but there's also way more jobs.” — Aaron Lazar: Impossible Dreams Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:00:15 +0000 Gurley argues artisans differentiate on field nuances not in LLM models, which AI attacks last. https://minutesof.com/q/8104ccc3-d295-400e-9ca5-a0e8f9f8f923/ https://minutesof.com/q/8104ccc3-d295-400e-9ca5-a0e8f9f8f923/ “And it's the subtle nuance in any field that's not baked into the LLM models. And so this is where I go back to this notion as an artisan.” — Aaron Lazar: Impossible Dreams Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:00:15 +0000 Gurley argues artisans differentiating at the edge of their field are the last thing AI will replace, not rote https://minutesof.com/q/7855103f-8b8e-4a6f-9410-140117b2eb79/ https://minutesof.com/q/7855103f-8b8e-4a6f-9410-140117b2eb79/ “The way you're differentiating yourself is what's out on the edge of that field. And that's the last thing the AI is coming after.” — Aaron Lazar: Impossible Dreams Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:00:15 +0000 Gurley warns people who chose safe jobs without loving them are sitting ducks for AI technology. https://minutesof.com/q/2349db67-caed-4da5-a643-a91df3d9302b/ https://minutesof.com/q/2349db67-caed-4da5-a643-a91df3d9302b/ “I think you're those are the people, oddly enough, that are kinda sitting ducks for this new technology that's coming along.” — Aaron Lazar: Impossible Dreams Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:00:15 +0000 Mark Cuban, who you mentioned had a tweet the other day. He said, there are two types of people, those that us https://minutesof.com/q/f3d02210-1ade-4160-b563-f59bb5c40e70/ https://minutesof.com/q/f3d02210-1ade-4160-b563-f59bb5c40e70/ “Mark Cuban, who you mentioned had a tweet the other day. He said, there are two types of people, those that use an LLM to learn as much as they possibly can.” — Aaron Lazar: Impossible Dreams Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:00:15 +0000 Gurley argues studying what fascinates you gives energy while studying uninteresting subjects drains it, creat https://minutesof.com/q/f51bdffd-6fef-45bd-bf61-7cce1375a850/ https://minutesof.com/q/f51bdffd-6fef-45bd-bf61-7cce1375a850/ “If you're completely fascinated with something, the hone your craft, the continuous learning gives you energy. If you're forced to study a subject you're not that interested in, it feels like work.” — Aaron Lazar: Impossible Dreams Tue, 31 Mar 2026 13:00:15 +0000 Gurley argues high-agency people fascinated by their work find AI accelerates their lives rather than threaten https://minutesof.com/q/cdefc7df-cda5-4700-8d29-27714200ce5e/ https://minutesof.com/q/cdefc7df-cda5-4700-8d29-27714200ce5e/ “And in some ways I would say people with high agency that are really fascinated about what they do, their life is accelerated by AI.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley states winning companies now raise $400-500 million minimum before considering going public. https://minutesof.com/q/6aef2f58-4a02-45d1-9f67-49e991467942/ https://minutesof.com/q/6aef2f58-4a02-45d1-9f67-49e991467942/ “Today, every company that is being identified as a winner is ingesting 400 or $500,000,000 minimum before they even think about going public, if they're ever gonna think about that.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley notes US public companies have fallen to less than half their peak number. https://minutesof.com/q/cec4ec45-01c9-4ca8-9a67-910b58d8f18e/ https://minutesof.com/q/cec4ec45-01c9-4ca8-9a67-910b58d8f18e/ “So the number of public companies in The US is less than half of peak. And so we've really had a fall off in the number of companies that are actually public.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley argues late stage funds intercept growth years formerly in public markets oligopolistically. https://minutesof.com/q/6fbe8217-d77e-4c3f-9c9c-21b954c18e5a/ https://minutesof.com/q/6fbe8217-d77e-4c3f-9c9c-21b954c18e5a/ “I would say the late stage funds have come up with a pretty clever premise, which is if they can intercept those growth years that used to be in the public markets and keep it for themselves in an oligopic kind of way.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley calls circular deals horrific and says auditors should not have approved them. https://minutesof.com/q/3916df0a-ae9e-48ea-9091-3bcb1c22c4cf/ https://minutesof.com/q/3916df0a-ae9e-48ea-9091-3bcb1c22c4cf/ “I think the circular deals are horrific. I don't think the auditor should have approved them. And I think whenever you eventually have an unwinding, they're gonna make it worse because they won't be sustainable.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley criticizes circular deals where companies convert cash to revenue, saying all major AI players do it. https://minutesof.com/q/b7b0e59d-9163-4caa-9cd5-f7e1864e8839/ https://minutesof.com/q/b7b0e59d-9163-4caa-9cd5-f7e1864e8839/ “You shouldn't be able to move cash from your balance sheet and create revenue on your income statement. I just don't think that should be okay. But they're all doing it.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley says ChatGPT compared circular AI deals to WorldCom and Enron when given deal structures. https://minutesof.com/q/4bcc4a0f-d365-451d-8017-91d3532b2df8/ https://minutesof.com/q/4bcc4a0f-d365-451d-8017-91d3532b2df8/ “I just explained the structure of them to chat GPT, and I would encourage anyone to go do this like it's a exercise anyone could do.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley says ChatGPT unprompted compared AI circular deal structures to WorldCom and Enron when he described th https://minutesof.com/q/fa055c70-5946-427d-b598-8b884e668b71/ https://minutesof.com/q/fa055c70-5946-427d-b598-8b884e668b71/ “And it immediately started talking about WorldCom and Enron unprompted by me. I just said, what do you think about these types of structures?” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley explains Microsoft's OpenAI deal involves cashless revenue through cloud credits for equity. https://minutesof.com/q/155ebc2c-332b-4d65-97c1-cb00df037d5d/ https://minutesof.com/q/155ebc2c-332b-4d65-97c1-cb00df037d5d/ “So you get equity for credits and then those credits are used to run workloads on Azure. That is cashless revenue for Microsoft.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley argues circular deals explain why Nvidia's multiple won't go higher despite strong growth. https://minutesof.com/q/d6c97e35-a153-488e-a289-9b08b060d417/ https://minutesof.com/q/d6c97e35-a153-488e-a289-9b08b060d417/ “People wanna understand why the Nvidia multiple won't go higher. I think it's the circular deals. Like if they're not material, don't do them.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley questions Nvidia's contract guaranteeing to buy CoreWeave's excess capacity as abnormal business practi https://minutesof.com/q/1ec48ad7-e41a-451b-bc0d-f305a4cf7de6/ https://minutesof.com/q/1ec48ad7-e41a-451b-bc0d-f305a4cf7de6/ “But then they wrote a contract with CoreWeave, which said if CoreWeave ever has extra capacity, we'll buy that capacity, which presumably helps it get more debt financing, that kind of thing.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley notes AI fear polling is 20 percent in China versus 80 percent in America. https://minutesof.com/q/f239d8bf-d4d7-4bca-bf01-84e3ab1c7f2a/ https://minutesof.com/q/f239d8bf-d4d7-4bca-bf01-84e3ab1c7f2a/ “And I think you guys mentioned this, but the polling on AI fear in China is like 20% or something like that. And it's like 80 here in America.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley blames AI founder fear-mongering for data center projects being stopped and regulatory impacts. https://minutesof.com/q/a65b4d1c-6546-4202-aeb7-687602eee76d/ https://minutesof.com/q/a65b4d1c-6546-4202-aeb7-687602eee76d/ “That starts- Some of the founders. Yeah. And it's starting to have ramifications for the industry. A number of data center projects has been stopped.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley says AI startups worrying about regulation from the beginning is unprecedented except for SBF. https://minutesof.com/q/67725d2f-cd07-4104-bf4b-c15210a3ffd2/ https://minutesof.com/q/67725d2f-cd07-4104-bf4b-c15210a3ffd2/ “Prior I to SBF, I've never seen a startup worry about regulation this much from the very beginning. Now we're seeing it again here.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley says young AI companies begging for regulation is unprecedented and threatens idealistic entrepreneursh https://minutesof.com/q/e9edbc38-d9be-482d-914e-0289ed176255/ https://minutesof.com/q/e9edbc38-d9be-482d-914e-0289ed176255/ “So there's these new areas there and now AI where very young companies are begging for regulation, which is not anything I've seen in my career either.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley argues Microsoft's late nineties regulatory threat enabled Amazon and Google to emerge. https://minutesof.com/q/38451ef6-c26a-49ea-90de-c686cf7e3a12/ https://minutesof.com/q/38451ef6-c26a-49ea-90de-c686cf7e3a12/ “I think that had Microsoft not been under threat in the late nineties, you may not have seen Amazon or Google or a lot of companies you may not have seen.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley argues high margins at big tech companies may indicate market failure not success. https://minutesof.com/q/fefe2358-bd38-4d13-853f-87d306efe0ec/ https://minutesof.com/q/fefe2358-bd38-4d13-853f-87d306efe0ec/ “I would argue that this, I don't think you're going to get a lot of other people in Silicon Valley that would be willing to say this, but it might be indicative of market failure rather than market success.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 Gurley explains OpenTable unlocked parametric search for restaurants that was previously impossible without ca https://minutesof.com/q/513c9532-941f-4003-bc8b-99ed9fd817b3/ https://minutesof.com/q/513c9532-941f-4003-bc8b-99ed9fd817b3/ “Before OpenTable, you could not do that. You'd have to call each one of them, and so it unlocked a consumer value proposition that didn't exist.” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley argues dynamic pricing is essential for digital marketplaces and giving it up would be fatal. https://minutesof.com/q/73c2c5d8-9bd8-4fba-83e3-6c51a81efd3b/ https://minutesof.com/q/73c2c5d8-9bd8-4fba-83e3-6c51a81efd3b/ “And I knew that if you wanted to create a digital marketplace, you wanna use price to to cause liquidity, to get encourage drivers to come out at the right time, like you'd hate to give up price in a digital marketplace or auction, like you never would.” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley explains dynamic pricing is essential for digital marketplace liquidity and driver supply management. https://minutesof.com/q/9dda9f9d-2235-4f8c-a5b9-ae359e76574c/ https://minutesof.com/q/9dda9f9d-2235-4f8c-a5b9-ae359e76574c/ “I knew that if you wanted to create a digital marketplace, you wanna use price to to cause liquidity, to get encourage drivers to come out at the right time, like you'd hate to give up price in a digital marketplace or auction, like you never would.” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley told partners to pursue any company layering technology on top of black cars before seeing Uber. https://minutesof.com/q/cf949927-ec97-41f5-aa77-59dc7fdec4a5/ https://minutesof.com/q/cf949927-ec97-41f5-aa77-59dc7fdec4a5/ “I said to my partners, if we ever see a company that's putting a layer on top of the black cars, we should run at it.” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley quotes Bezos saying he only invests in founders with unstoppable determination to execute regardless of https://minutesof.com/q/2bed28e2-1655-47e7-bc98-4cc4459f29ca/ https://minutesof.com/q/2bed28e2-1655-47e7-bc98-4cc4459f29ca/ “He said, I wanna believe this person's gonna go do this, come hell or high water, whether I get involved or not, nothing's gonna stop him.” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley quotes Bezos saying he only looks for determinism in founders who will succeed regardless of investment https://minutesof.com/q/c5317496-b8eb-4ba0-99d5-946284636787/ https://minutesof.com/q/c5317496-b8eb-4ba0-99d5-946284636787/ “He said, I wanna believe this person's gonna go do this, come hell or high water, whether I get involved or not, nothing's gonna stop him. And that's the trade he's looking for.” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley says best VCs have missed lists because they position themselves for opportunities, prerequisite to gre https://minutesof.com/q/c6156ffa-f22e-4097-ae9a-ddfb0a440622/ https://minutesof.com/q/c6156ffa-f22e-4097-ae9a-ddfb0a440622/ “yeah, I mean, it took me forever to realize that some of the best venture capitalists have this missed list and the reason they have the missed list is because they're really effective at putting themselves in the right position to have the opportunity, which is a prerequisite to actually making the great investments.” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley says he brought Larry and Sergei to his partnership but failed to chase the Google investment. https://minutesof.com/q/c7a6d3c5-c7c3-46c9-b80d-5bdb811cf81b/ https://minutesof.com/q/c7a6d3c5-c7c3-46c9-b80d-5bdb811cf81b/ “I met Larry and Sergei, was very early in my career, I brought them into the partnership and they presented and we failed to lay chase.” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley argues network effects are easier to build when supply is fragmented rather than consolidated like Tick https://minutesof.com/q/3beb79f3-3ded-4460-ad76-b4a75d312007/ https://minutesof.com/q/3beb79f3-3ded-4460-ad76-b4a75d312007/ “Part of what I loved about both OpenTable and Uber, it's easier to build a network effect if supply is limited, I can't You know how many people have tilted against Ticketmaster and whatnot?” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley estimates 98% of venture capitalists are exclusively focused on AI investments right now. https://minutesof.com/q/5b15d55b-3653-430e-9c44-998df322fb39/ https://minutesof.com/q/5b15d55b-3653-430e-9c44-998df322fb39/ “From where I sit, 98% of venture capitalists are only looking at AI and they're AI all day long, they don't wanna see another business” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley claims 98% of VCs focus only on AI and non-AI valuations were cut in half in five weeks. https://minutesof.com/q/c7b90370-c001-428b-afdc-c9e23cfb21b2/ https://minutesof.com/q/c7b90370-c001-428b-afdc-c9e23cfb21b2/ “98% of venture capitalists are only looking at AI and they're AI all day long, they don't wanna see another business and and and in the past five weeks, the valuations on the non AI companies have been cut in half and so that mentality is gonna be reinforced even more and so there's just no oxygen.” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley reports 98% of VCs focus solely on AI and non-AI company valuations halved in five weeks. https://minutesof.com/q/1903222d-7b84-4e37-8842-0ccc87468827/ https://minutesof.com/q/1903222d-7b84-4e37-8842-0ccc87468827/ “98% of venture capitalists are only looking at AI and they're AI all day long, they don't wanna see another business and and and in the past five weeks, the valuations on the non AI companies have been cut in half” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley says non-AI company valuations have been cut in half in past five weeks due to VC focus on AI. https://minutesof.com/q/72fb6e8e-f76a-452e-8beb-86af85241468/ https://minutesof.com/q/72fb6e8e-f76a-452e-8beb-86af85241468/ “in the past five weeks, the valuations on the non AI companies have been cut in half and so that mentality is gonna be reinforced even more and so there's just no oxygen.” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley argues venture capital bends toward youth because founders are young and young VCs understand new techn https://minutesof.com/q/fd6756e0-2a7c-4ccb-a15b-811bf5dc5281/ https://minutesof.com/q/fd6756e0-2a7c-4ccb-a15b-811bf5dc5281/ “I think it's very hard to be a venture capitalist as you get older and I think it's very easy to break into venture capital as a young person.” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley warns venture capital has massive oversupply of aspirants and being young alone won't make someone good https://minutesof.com/q/ca3597d6-2f62-403f-88f0-7ee3619d11f4/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca3597d6-2f62-403f-88f0-7ee3619d11f4/ “If you think like just being young will make you good at venture capital, that's wrong. But and it is a job that does not have a supply demand balance.” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley states the average age of a new Benchmark partner is about 30 years old. https://minutesof.com/q/57bdc43b-b943-4966-9cfb-4135291134b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/57bdc43b-b943-4966-9cfb-4135291134b1/ “the way, the average age of a new partner at Benchmark that becomes an equal partner is about 30.” — School of Hard Knocks Podcast Thu, 26 Mar 2026 21:34:25 +0000 Gurley argues leading AI companies seek regulatory protection while conducting billions in secondary transacti https://minutesof.com/q/ad476678-15dd-466a-be2b-1b1b02718825/ https://minutesof.com/q/ad476678-15dd-466a-be2b-1b1b02718825/ “Can also though frame Like they're also raising billions and billions of dollars for the They're leading the biggest secondary transactions for their employees in the history of venture capital, the history of the world.” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley argues leading AI companies seek regulatory protection because their biggest threat is open source move https://minutesof.com/q/e4043dbe-2145-4a8c-b890-3c30405eb7b2/ https://minutesof.com/q/e4043dbe-2145-4a8c-b890-3c30405eb7b2/ “They're leading the biggest secondary transactions for their employees in the history of venture capital, the history of the world.” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley argues leading AI model providers seek regulatory protection as biggest threat to their billions is ope https://minutesof.com/q/0158a532-e7ce-4b2b-996d-8635aef6f23e/ https://minutesof.com/q/0158a532-e7ce-4b2b-996d-8635aef6f23e/ “And so people are putting billions of dollars in their pocket. And so there's also a huge incentive to from the two leading model providers to seek regulatory protection, which most people wouldn't think regulation is but they've been begging for regulation since they started from from three years ago.” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley says AI leaders want regulation because open source is their biggest business threat https://minutesof.com/q/6dc3f095-6bdb-4fa0-89ad-d1424af5f9ff/ https://minutesof.com/q/6dc3f095-6bdb-4fa0-89ad-d1424af5f9ff/ “And the reason I think they want it is the biggest threat to their businesses where they're cashing in billions of dollars is the open source movement.” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley identifies open source as the biggest threat to leading AI model providers' businesses. https://minutesof.com/q/612e2837-3f64-4d0a-9d89-4dc039f838af/ https://minutesof.com/q/612e2837-3f64-4d0a-9d89-4dc039f838af/ “the biggest threat to their businesses where they're cashing in billions of dollars is the open source movement.” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley argues AI anxiety is much lower in China because leaders there don't engage in doomsday messaging. https://minutesof.com/q/1a94f5d0-c4d6-42b5-ab46-a4ab628bd72b/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a94f5d0-c4d6-42b5-ab46-a4ab628bd72b/ “there have been polls about this AI anxiety in China that are a fraction of the anxiety levels that they have here in The US.” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley notes AI anxiety polls in China show fraction of US levels because Chinese leaders don't do doomsday me https://minutesof.com/q/8b5e4658-34d2-4329-8df4-b2a41a7dcbd1/ https://minutesof.com/q/8b5e4658-34d2-4329-8df4-b2a41a7dcbd1/ “Why? I think it's because the leaders over there that are working on these products aren't doing the doomsday stuff that Dario is doing.” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley calls it radical that US AI company leaders are the biggest doomsayers about their own technology. https://minutesof.com/q/ecc15017-3614-45f0-8c79-0aa93a8bf503/ https://minutesof.com/q/ecc15017-3614-45f0-8c79-0aa93a8bf503/ “The people leading the effort at the top companies here in The US are the biggest doomsayers. It's radical.” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley calls it radical that US AI company leaders are the biggest doomsayers about their own technology. https://minutesof.com/q/59939fbe-b4ee-47e4-a7d9-9dce4698b992/ https://minutesof.com/q/59939fbe-b4ee-47e4-a7d9-9dce4698b992/ “The people leading the effort at the top companies here in The US are the biggest doomsayers. It's radical. But I would also say we have been prone to overstating these risks in the past.” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley notes more bank tellers exist today than forty years ago despite ATMs. https://minutesof.com/q/a31ebbcc-002e-48d4-b85b-ce0d5d10650f/ https://minutesof.com/q/a31ebbcc-002e-48d4-b85b-ce0d5d10650f/ “There's still people working in banks today despite the fact that the ATM There've been studies that say there's more bank tellers today than there were like forty years ago.” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley says AI wave threatens more broadly than previous tech waves like PC, internet, or mobile. https://minutesof.com/q/1efc9f3a-17ba-4cfc-8c7c-1a1723ee234c/ https://minutesof.com/q/1efc9f3a-17ba-4cfc-8c7c-1a1723ee234c/ “And the past week in the financial markets, like a whole bunch of companies, you know, traded down because of fear that this would would disrupt them.” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley's research found seven out of ten college graduates would do it differently if starting over. https://minutesof.com/q/d3d60c89-be75-4a3e-a8c7-628aa3941ec5/ https://minutesof.com/q/d3d60c89-be75-4a3e-a8c7-628aa3941ec5/ “And seven out of 10 said yes. Wow. And we redid this study with Wharton to make sure we had done it scientifically” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley says colleges now require major applications at high school junior year, three years earlier than befor https://minutesof.com/q/01790d49-0498-400b-b831-5e203c25da04/ https://minutesof.com/q/01790d49-0498-400b-b831-5e203c25da04/ “Today at many colleges, you have to apply to the major as a junior in high school. So that mindset has been lost.” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley describes hating traditional college hiring with 30 candidates getting fifteen minute slots each https://minutesof.com/q/5347634b-7b03-44f9-bccf-e03d4a8c4d1d/ https://minutesof.com/q/5347634b-7b03-44f9-bccf-e03d4a8c4d1d/ “You got to stand out next to everyone that's just like you. And it seems so unoptimal to me.” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley announces foundation giving 105 grants annually to people financially stuck but wanting to chase their https://minutesof.com/q/3ab8a970-ba49-47d0-95d4-523396d3d7ef/ https://minutesof.com/q/3ab8a970-ba49-47d0-95d4-523396d3d7ef/ “I'm also starting launching a foundation. I've already set aside the money, but I'm gonna give a $105 grants a year to people who want to chase their dreams, but maybe a little stuck financially and need a little help to get there.” — Mighty Pursuit Tue, 24 Mar 2026 15:49:15 +0000 Gurley repeated career regret survey with Wharton People Analytics to validate SurveyMonkey findings on career https://minutesof.com/q/a030cf59-2a15-47ca-9df2-37fbc9d5456f/ https://minutesof.com/q/a030cf59-2a15-47ca-9df2-37fbc9d5456f/ “We did a survey first on survey monkey, and then we did it again with Wharton people analytics, because we wanted to make sure we got it right.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley's survey found six to seven out of 10 college graduates would do their career differently if starting o https://minutesof.com/q/22748847-9ebd-449f-b059-35790e0eb9f9/ https://minutesof.com/q/22748847-9ebd-449f-b059-35790e0eb9f9/ “if you could start your career over again, would you do it differently? And in our original SurveyMonkey, seven out of 10 said yes. With Wharton, it was six out of 10.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley's SurveyMonkey found seven out of ten would restart careers differently, Wharton survey found six out o https://minutesof.com/q/b20bc5b6-c24e-45d3-bcca-2d6164d60c19/ https://minutesof.com/q/b20bc5b6-c24e-45d3-bcca-2d6164d60c19/ “And in our original SurveyMonkey, seven out of 10 said yes. With Wharton, it was six out of 10. It's still a vast majority of people.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley cites Daniel Pink finding that humans dwell on regrets of inaction more than action mistakes. https://minutesof.com/q/e0fab412-c645-4650-98b2-8dee785077ba/ https://minutesof.com/q/e0fab412-c645-4650-98b2-8dee785077ba/ “With Wharton, it was six out of 10. It's still a vast majority of people. Daniel Pink in his book, The Power of Regret notes that humans dwell on regrets of inaction.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley cites Daniel Pink finding humans dwell on boldness regrets, inactions they never tried. https://minutesof.com/q/6b533906-fec2-41e7-9bdf-90d0375781fa/ https://minutesof.com/q/6b533906-fec2-41e7-9bdf-90d0375781fa/ “Daniel Pink in his book, The Power of Regret notes that humans dwell on regrets of inaction. He calls them boldness re regrets.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley contrasts humans easily forgiving action mistakes but struggling with things never tried. https://minutesof.com/q/e07f939e-f6b2-42e6-ad2c-4a338251a0f2/ https://minutesof.com/q/e07f939e-f6b2-42e6-ad2c-4a338251a0f2/ “And the older you get, the more they weigh on you. Humans are fabulous at forgiving themselves for mistakes, kind of what you just walked through. Those are action mistakes.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley argues society steers people toward safe jobs that AI may make unsafe anyway over 80,000 working hours. https://minutesof.com/q/30bf31f7-005a-493e-91e3-d91856858f81/ https://minutesof.com/q/30bf31f7-005a-493e-91e3-d91856858f81/ “And I fear that our society has been steering people towards quote safe jobs, which in a day of AI may not even be that safe anymore.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley argues that safe jobs are threatened by AI and fascination-based careers are actually safest now. https://minutesof.com/q/5dff896f-fc6a-4ae6-9d35-d871d9c8aeb4/ https://minutesof.com/q/5dff896f-fc6a-4ae6-9d35-d871d9c8aeb4/ “I fear that our society has been steering people towards quote safe jobs, which in a day of AI may not even be that safe anymore.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley describes Bob Dylan as always having been a historian, insanely studious about music. https://minutesof.com/q/c49fcda5-b030-4ef4-a381-67b522b7063f/ https://minutesof.com/q/c49fcda5-b030-4ef4-a381-67b522b7063f/ “Dylan is a, and and always was going way back to when he when he got started is is a historian. He, he liked, and he's insanely studious about music.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley argues Dylan knew more about folk music than anyone in Minnesota before leaving. https://minutesof.com/q/33d66ce8-6b4b-4a59-b143-5a9ab77b0e9f/ https://minutesof.com/q/33d66ce8-6b4b-4a59-b143-5a9ab77b0e9f/ “And I have a high confidence level based on what I've read that he knew more about folk music than anyone else in Minnesota when he left for New York.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley asserts Dylan knew more about folk music than anyone else in Minnesota through obsessive study. https://minutesof.com/q/90f0db88-a96f-4a9f-82d9-e8f83e54dca6/ https://minutesof.com/q/90f0db88-a96f-4a9f-82d9-e8f83e54dca6/ “I have a high confidence level based on what I've read that he knew more about folk music than anyone else in Minnesota when he left for New York.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 part of what's really cool about an artisan or a craftsman is they're really studying the nuance at the edge o https://minutesof.com/q/a34f5372-de74-4c0e-acc9-8eacfdda2738/ https://minutesof.com/q/a34f5372-de74-4c0e-acc9-8eacfdda2738/ “part of what's really cool about an artisan or a craftsman is they're really studying the nuance at the edge of the field. And that's the stuff that's not in the AI model.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley quotes Cuban dividing people into those who use LLMs to learn faster versus those avoiding learning. https://minutesof.com/q/375c0aa5-584c-4c43-8505-5984f1b4c30d/ https://minutesof.com/q/375c0aa5-584c-4c43-8505-5984f1b4c30d/ “He said, there are two types of people in the world, those that use LLMs to learn faster and even more, and those that use LLMs to avoid learning.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley says college makes people competitive and sharp-elbowed when the world is not actually zero sum. https://minutesof.com/q/78269afd-6a9c-4f4f-824a-bb93fb6218ba/ https://minutesof.com/q/78269afd-6a9c-4f4f-824a-bb93fb6218ba/ “But what I would tell people is the world's not zero sum. In any field that we're in, there's, there's many, many winners, many, many great winners.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley recounts Matthew McConaughey's father telling him not to half-ass his film career switch. https://minutesof.com/q/690e6d86-848b-460a-b2e0-b684e4f14a8f/ https://minutesof.com/q/690e6d86-848b-460a-b2e0-b684e4f14a8f/ “And he was afraid to tell his father, but when he did, his father said famously now, Don't half ass it.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley claims this is the best time in history to chase dreams due to AI learning tools. https://minutesof.com/q/ff4d9691-5eac-45b3-bf1c-3339d21fdcbd/ https://minutesof.com/q/ff4d9691-5eac-45b3-bf1c-3339d21fdcbd/ “the, the methodology in my book, the, the AI tools that are out there for learning and connecting have never been this is the best time in the history of the world to go chase your dreams.” — Anthony Scaramucci Tue, 17 Mar 2026 16:00:20 +0000 Gurley advises running toward AI to understand its capabilities in your field provides protection and differen https://minutesof.com/q/87b504aa-8f56-4248-a42b-4659565352e7/ https://minutesof.com/q/87b504aa-8f56-4248-a42b-4659565352e7/ “Know exactly what AI can achieve in your field and be on the edge and the forefront of playing with it, and you will be remarkably differentiated.” — Ilana Golan - Leap Academy Tue, 17 Mar 2026 11:00:30 +0000 Gurley recommends annually asking yourself if you want to do your current job thirty years from now. https://minutesof.com/q/5896b753-874b-404f-8054-1a144351de41/ https://minutesof.com/q/5896b753-874b-404f-8054-1a144351de41/ “I would encourage people to at least once a year rise up and say, is this what I wanna do with the rest of my life?” — Ilana Golan - Leap Academy Tue, 17 Mar 2026 11:00:30 +0000 Gurley illustrates barbell strategy by combining historical knowledge with understanding of TikTok for marketi https://minutesof.com/q/799b996f-2c4a-4ef3-beb5-29e09bea45f9/ https://minutesof.com/q/799b996f-2c4a-4ef3-beb5-29e09bea45f9/ “imagine, go back to this 20 people interviewing for this marketing job. If I walk in, I know the history and I know everything about how TikTok works. I look like that candidate of one.” — Ilana Golan - Leap Academy Tue, 17 Mar 2026 11:00:30 +0000 Gurley cites 2023 Gallup poll showing over 50% aren't engaged at work, only 23% qualify as engaged. https://minutesof.com/q/3bf71ed5-1400-4e1f-92a3-b6de2cdd3955/ https://minutesof.com/q/3bf71ed5-1400-4e1f-92a3-b6de2cdd3955/ “If you're unfulfilled at work, there's a 2023 Gallup poll study that came out and said over 50% of people aren't actively engaged at work. And the number that qualifies engaged is like 23%.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 16 Mar 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley cites 2023 Gallup poll showing only 23% are engaged at work, over 50% not actively engaged. https://minutesof.com/q/35c4bd0c-408d-4696-9d49-4231661c71e3/ https://minutesof.com/q/35c4bd0c-408d-4696-9d49-4231661c71e3/ “there's a 2023 Gallup poll study that came out and said over 50% of people aren't actively engaged at work. And the number that qualifies engaged is like 23%.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 16 Mar 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley argues AI models contain only written best practices, not edge knowledge being discovered today. https://minutesof.com/q/0ca7c98f-fe4d-4695-a284-a881d62e65be/ https://minutesof.com/q/0ca7c98f-fe4d-4695-a284-a881d62e65be/ “So AI and large language models are recording like all the best practices that have been written down. But the stuff that's on the edge that's being discovered today is not in the models.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 16 Mar 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley argues AI captures documented best practices but misses cutting-edge knowledge being discovered now. https://minutesof.com/q/39994756-b5d6-488b-9611-16a6b4a383a1/ https://minutesof.com/q/39994756-b5d6-488b-9611-16a6b4a383a1/ “AI and large language models are recording like all the best practices that have been written down. But the stuff that's on the edge that's being discovered today is not in the models.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 16 Mar 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley reports survey finding that 60% of people would choose a different career if starting over. https://minutesof.com/q/680bc053-7fd3-4e9e-b390-198f3fe3c17d/ https://minutesof.com/q/680bc053-7fd3-4e9e-b390-198f3fe3c17d/ “we did a survey where we asked people if you could go back in time and start your career over again, would you do something different? And six out of 10 said yes.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 16 Mar 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley argues almost any job can be approached as an artisan would, not just creative fields. https://minutesof.com/q/925bffd1-ef75-438a-8aca-04bb8d84d261/ https://minutesof.com/q/925bffd1-ef75-438a-8aca-04bb8d84d261/ “I have this interesting theory where almost any job you could think of it as being an artisan.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 16 Mar 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley argues top performers in any field understand nuance, which AI struggles with. https://minutesof.com/q/f1238b1e-5a1c-48f9-9e94-bd4b0743eaeb/ https://minutesof.com/q/f1238b1e-5a1c-48f9-9e94-bd4b0743eaeb/ “Or do you think of, and I would say the best in those And fields probably so what is it they do? They understand nuance in their field quite a bit.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 16 Mar 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley uses Bjorn Borg as example of athlete who retired before equipment evolution changed the game. https://minutesof.com/q/17d76fcb-a505-4e4b-9cfa-330d649a07ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/17d76fcb-a505-4e4b-9cfa-330d649a07ae/ “Bjorn Borg, the tennis player retired very early in his life. He'd like in his thirties. And for a variety of reasons, was burned out.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 16 Mar 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley uses Bjorn Borg's failed comeback with outdated racket to illustrate importance of adopting new tools. https://minutesof.com/q/eaa3a572-2c68-4e82-99c1-99858fdeb0b0/ https://minutesof.com/q/eaa3a572-2c68-4e82-99c1-99858fdeb0b0/ “And for a variety of reasons, was burned out. But he was one of the last generation of people to play with these small wooden rackets.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 16 Mar 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley describes how Bjorn Borg retired playing wooden rackets while others switched to superior graphite tech https://minutesof.com/q/3cb83de3-f9ec-4e0a-b4e7-1470b07a26db/ https://minutesof.com/q/3cb83de3-f9ec-4e0a-b4e7-1470b07a26db/ “I don't know if you ever even know what those are. But while he was retired, everyone switched to these bigger graphite rackets with a much bigger sweet spot.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 16 Mar 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley uses Bjorn Borg's failed comeback with wooden racket to illustrate humans must evolve with tools. https://minutesof.com/q/e420be15-a2f3-44c9-a320-5f29629e34a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/e420be15-a2f3-44c9-a320-5f29629e34a3/ “He tried to make a comeback at like 38 and he brought that old wooden racket out there and he got smoked.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 16 Mar 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley argues humans evolve with tools and modern tools create overwhelming competitive advantages. https://minutesof.com/q/46d35285-9c8f-4353-969f-5bd14acbd7de/ https://minutesof.com/q/46d35285-9c8f-4353-969f-5bd14acbd7de/ “Like you're if you're a farmer with a tractor and a drone thing and all this stuff, you're going to run over a farmer with a hoe and a and a donkey.” — Silicon Valley Girl Clips Mon, 16 Mar 2026 13:01:05 +0000 Gurley's Wharton survey found six out of ten people would choose a different career if starting over. https://minutesof.com/q/0130f5f7-ef93-449e-b6c9-3498373b6cfa/ https://minutesof.com/q/0130f5f7-ef93-449e-b6c9-3498373b6cfa/ “I launched a survey on SurveyMonkey that said, if you could go back and start over, would you would you do a different career? And seven out of 10 people said yes.” — Chris Williamson Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00:16 +0000 Gurley notes forty percent of people shift away from college major within five years. https://minutesof.com/q/fa9bb3f8-096e-4679-b578-5b2b75dd7562/ https://minutesof.com/q/fa9bb3f8-096e-4679-b578-5b2b75dd7562/ “I invested all of this to get to this college, to get to this degree. And if I move away from that, did I just waste all that time?” — Chris Williamson Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00:16 +0000 Gurley cites research showing forty percent leave their major field within five years, increasing further at t https://minutesof.com/q/8d6aa7fc-f3d5-4673-8894-4acc6e937aec/ https://minutesof.com/q/8d6aa7fc-f3d5-4673-8894-4acc6e937aec/ “five years after college, forty percent of people are no longer working in the field that was their major. And that number gets bigger at 10.” — Chris Williamson Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00:16 +0000 Gurley says colleges now require major selection at high school junior year, three years earlier than before. https://minutesof.com/q/ce184f43-3bed-4ef0-a66f-daea247e4ef6/ https://minutesof.com/q/ce184f43-3bed-4ef0-a66f-daea247e4ef6/ “So we've moved the decision of what major are you gonna pick from the end of your sophomore year to the end of your junior year in high school.” — Chris Williamson Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00:16 +0000 Gurley reports Tito launched his vodka company which became North America's best selling spirit with 100% owne https://minutesof.com/q/35e18fc4-3863-4f0d-936c-00520d3671b5/ https://minutesof.com/q/35e18fc4-3863-4f0d-936c-00520d3671b5/ “Tito's is now the most best selling spirit in North America. He owns a 100% of it himself.” — Chris Williamson Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00:16 +0000 Gurley quotes MrBeast saying collaborative learning group achieved forty thousand hours through shared knowled https://minutesof.com/q/cc04f581-69ed-47ef-8bb0-71dc6b4ca4f0/ https://minutesof.com/q/cc04f581-69ed-47ef-8bb0-71dc6b4ca4f0/ “He said, you know how they talk about ten thousand hours referring to the Malcolm Gladwell book? He says, we got forty thousand hours because we were sharing it all.” — Chris Williamson Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00:16 +0000 Now, if you contrast that with someone who is a proactive, independent climber, who's trying to build their cr https://minutesof.com/q/95654a14-dfc1-4344-b977-fdf441aebb58/ https://minutesof.com/q/95654a14-dfc1-4344-b977-fdf441aebb58/ “Now, if you contrast that with someone who is a proactive, independent climber, who's trying to build their craft, their world, they're a continuous learner. For that person, AI is a jet pack.” — Chris Williamson Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00:16 +0000 Gurley dismisses mid-market private equity work as unmotivating though acknowledging money can be made there. https://minutesof.com/q/548ef570-3e05-41b9-8094-3dc2be229f0d/ https://minutesof.com/q/548ef570-3e05-41b9-8094-3dc2be229f0d/ “I don't even I would never be motivated by it, but but, you know, I'm not not necessarily shitting on them too bad. Like, somebody there are you can make money.” — Chris Williamson Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00:16 +0000 Gurley explains liquidation preference allows VCs to treat investments like debt, getting paid first in sales. https://minutesof.com/q/2e31e5d2-4194-47c7-9a1d-f7ab119b6eb0/ https://minutesof.com/q/2e31e5d2-4194-47c7-9a1d-f7ab119b6eb0/ “So venture capitalists typically take preferred stock, and it has a term called liquidation preference, which means in a sale, they get the option to basically treat it like debt.” — Chris Williamson Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00:16 +0000 Gurley explains liquidation preference means founders in AI rounds raising $500M see no proceeds until that am https://minutesof.com/q/f530cbe5-4d14-4798-9942-63d7a47e93fe/ https://minutesof.com/q/f530cbe5-4d14-4798-9942-63d7a47e93fe/ “And so if you've raised in these days of these AI rounds, if you raise 500,000,000, Lake Common doesn't even participate until you get a sale over that, technically.” — Chris Williamson Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00:16 +0000 Gurley used AI to analyze best nonfiction conclusions, discovering eight of ten take orthogonal directions. https://minutesof.com/q/1335ce6e-4221-43bd-b65e-f5166025c69c/ https://minutesof.com/q/1335ce6e-4221-43bd-b65e-f5166025c69c/ “And in reading through that list, I noticed that eight or nine of the 10 took an orthogonal direction to the book, so it didn't summarize.” — Chris Williamson Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00:16 +0000 Gurley used GPT to analyze best conclusion chapters, discovering eight or nine of ten took orthogonal directio https://minutesof.com/q/1e9da732-7c6a-4190-8598-b00d51b2dfa8/ https://minutesof.com/q/1e9da732-7c6a-4190-8598-b00d51b2dfa8/ “And in reading through that list, I noticed that eight or nine of the 10 took an orthogonal direction to the book,” — Chris Williamson Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00:16 +0000 Gurley reports lawyers he spoke with have already drastically reduced paralegal staff due to AI. https://minutesof.com/q/50c0e087-0aca-4cdd-962b-e88b9dc320ef/ https://minutesof.com/q/50c0e087-0aca-4cdd-962b-e88b9dc320ef/ “Paralegals are already under threat, and I have talked to lawyers that have drastically reduced the size of their paralegal force. I've talked to them. That has already happened.” — Chris Williamson Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00:16 +0000 Paralegals are already under threat, and I have talked to lawyers that have drastically reduced the size of th https://minutesof.com/q/143ea33c-991f-4feb-a97f-17643bff4fab/ https://minutesof.com/q/143ea33c-991f-4feb-a97f-17643bff4fab/ “Paralegals are already under threat, and I have talked to lawyers that have drastically reduced the size of their paralegal force. I've talked to them.” — Chris Williamson Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00:16 +0000 Gurley criticizes schools requiring major declaration as high school juniors when students cannot know their p https://minutesof.com/q/a2dba08f-0a1e-4723-8102-9998e709eb3a/ https://minutesof.com/q/a2dba08f-0a1e-4723-8102-9998e709eb3a/ “Now at many schools, you have to apply to your major, like, as you're applying to college. So you're a junior in high school and people are like, what's your passion?” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 Gurley cites Stanford research showing 40% of people shift away from their college major within four to five y https://minutesof.com/q/51f60a5f-e143-48db-a3f9-387baff3fcf9/ https://minutesof.com/q/51f60a5f-e143-48db-a3f9-387baff3fcf9/ “But a lot of people do. There's Dave Evans at Stanford who does the Designing Your Life class and book, you know, they highlight that like four years, five years out, 40% of people are no longer doing the work that was in their major.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 Gurley asked himself if he saw himself doing computer engineering in thirty years, triggering his career shift https://minutesof.com/q/2b724da8-5ac7-476e-b7f3-5e72fcbde647/ https://minutesof.com/q/2b724da8-5ac7-476e-b7f3-5e72fcbde647/ “I was going home at night and studying something different. And I asked myself that question, do I see myself doing this in thirty years?” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 And I paused in each one of them and said, do I want to be here thirty years from now, like in that office? https://minutesof.com/q/ccb39945-8504-4c3b-9c60-bf980f17febd/ https://minutesof.com/q/ccb39945-8504-4c3b-9c60-bf980f17febd/ “And I paused in each one of them and said, do I want to be here thirty years from now, like in that office?” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 Gurley used the thirty-year test again on Wall Street, walking through senior offices at 10PM. https://minutesof.com/q/c7181cd6-1504-4b04-8d78-ac2b730d2c39/ https://minutesof.com/q/c7181cd6-1504-4b04-8d78-ac2b730d2c39/ “I paused in each one of them and said, do I want to be here thirty years from now, like in that office? Assume I do great, but I've done this my whole life.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 I paused in each one of them and said, do I want to be here thirty years from now, like in that office? https://minutesof.com/q/5e32ab91-c769-4a52-bccb-0bd6ecef8a0e/ https://minutesof.com/q/5e32ab91-c769-4a52-bccb-0bd6ecef8a0e/ “I paused in each one of them and said, do I want to be here thirty years from now, like in that office?” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 I ended up in Silicon Valley and got into venture capital and spent twenty five years there and never asked my https://minutesof.com/q/bc6523ef-0de9-49ec-852d-43b1c7eb1cb2/ https://minutesof.com/q/bc6523ef-0de9-49ec-852d-43b1c7eb1cb2/ “I ended up in Silicon Valley and got into venture capital and spent twenty five years there and never asked myself that question again.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 Gurley cites Dan Gilbert who became more known for side hustles than core jobs, creating Microsoft Garage as e https://minutesof.com/q/a075b3db-1210-429b-9732-37b510d07b22/ https://minutesof.com/q/a075b3db-1210-429b-9732-37b510d07b22/ “In almost every case, he ended up becoming known more for the side hustle than the core job.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 Gurley cites 2023 Gallup poll showing only 23% feel engaged at work, 59% quiet quitting. https://minutesof.com/q/6c5dd4a6-b73a-4562-8fec-367c13891e92/ https://minutesof.com/q/6c5dd4a6-b73a-4562-8fec-367c13891e92/ “Gallup did a poll in 2023 where only 23% of people feel engaged at work. And they qualified like 59% as quiet quitting.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 They had 25 employees at the time, to tell you how early it was. And they presented and we failed to chase tha https://minutesof.com/q/7a195e79-0aae-44db-94ee-f0f316ba0775/ https://minutesof.com/q/7a195e79-0aae-44db-94ee-f0f316ba0775/ “They had 25 employees at the time, to tell you how early it was. And they presented and we failed to chase that.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 Gurley says venture capital requires breaking your own rules or you'll say no to everything. https://minutesof.com/q/ca3a2602-6846-4e3b-bc4e-2abd25f17632/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca3a2602-6846-4e3b-bc4e-2abd25f17632/ “venture capital is a game where you have to one of the reasons, group decision making works so well is you're you're gonna have to break one of your rules or you're gonna say no to everything.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 Gurley explains fascination on the edge lets you become the most learned in the world very quickly, citing MrB https://minutesof.com/q/6fe0d2c6-9d0b-4b04-a139-d5e503b450fc/ https://minutesof.com/q/6fe0d2c6-9d0b-4b04-a139-d5e503b450fc/ “And a fascination on the edge, which is one of the things about having a fascination about something on the edge is you become the most learned very quickly.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 Gurley describes MrBeast spending sixteen hours a day for four years on Skype calls with peers learning YouTub https://minutesof.com/q/0351dacd-362d-46a6-8991-3dbbf7b76fe6/ https://minutesof.com/q/0351dacd-362d-46a6-8991-3dbbf7b76fe6/ “And they ended up, he says on Skype calls for over sixteen hours a day for four years. And they learn together.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 Gurley reports all four MrBeast collaborators gained over a million followers and made over a million dollars. https://minutesof.com/q/afaf3ab7-e689-48ae-9ff7-1658e10374a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/afaf3ab7-e689-48ae-9ff7-1658e10374a3/ “And he claims that every one of those people ended up with over a million followers. Every one of them ended up making over $1,000,000.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 And even says more profoundly, if a fifth person had been on the calls, almost no matter who they were, they w https://minutesof.com/q/346e9cca-bb20-4ff9-a739-b3aa97c58df3/ https://minutesof.com/q/346e9cca-bb20-4ff9-a739-b3aa97c58df3/ “And even says more profoundly, if a fifth person had been on the calls, almost no matter who they were, they would have had the same success.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 In just unbelievable reality, all eight of those people are division one athletic directors now on top of the https://minutesof.com/q/fb036818-7b26-4488-b767-3eaf1f0ff71b/ https://minutesof.com/q/fb036818-7b26-4488-b767-3eaf1f0ff71b/ “In just unbelievable reality, all eight of those people are division one athletic directors now on top of the biggest programs in the country. Right.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 I could have, I think, fooled myself. And I went through this mental model when I was thinking about it and sa https://minutesof.com/q/22f69ce9-b41f-4583-8588-2a0deceaa0f6/ https://minutesof.com/q/22f69ce9-b41f-4583-8588-2a0deceaa0f6/ “I could have, I think, fooled myself. And I went through this mental model when I was thinking about it and said, oh, I'll be the best venture capitalist in a the sixth VC city.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 Gurley says Silicon Valley's willingness to grant fifteen-minute meetings is shockingly higher than Wall Stree https://minutesof.com/q/2bfd315b-94d8-470f-b6ce-f75fc9ea1aba/ https://minutesof.com/q/2bfd315b-94d8-470f-b6ce-f75fc9ea1aba/ “In Silicon Valley, the frequency with which you can ask someone for fifteen minutes of their time and get a yes is shockingly high.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 Gurley describes how Tito's vodka founder launched number one North American spirit at age 40 with no prior in https://minutesof.com/q/99c113b4-8674-424e-b037-bdedf3d51860/ https://minutesof.com/q/99c113b4-8674-424e-b037-bdedf3d51860/ “And that exercise led Burt Beverage, whose nickname is Tito, to launch the first spirit company in Texas, a vodka company that now is the number one selling spirit in North America.” — Afford Anything Podcast Fri, 13 Mar 2026 19:00:04 +0000 Gurley argues humans evolve with their tools, comparing AI adoption to a tractor versus plow competition. https://minutesof.com/q/e7b0b220-9cd6-4a74-a1e5-3fa2e4fed4b0/ https://minutesof.com/q/e7b0b220-9cd6-4a74-a1e5-3fa2e4fed4b0/ “There's tons of anthropologists that have written about how we evolve with our tools, and you can just imagine a farming competition between a guy with a tractor and some drones and the other guys got a plow and a donkey. Who's gonna win? And you need to think about it that way.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 Gurley claims understanding AI's impact on your role better than peers protects you from layoffs. https://minutesof.com/q/f24b53db-8e51-430d-8a83-452bade1b4a4/ https://minutesof.com/q/f24b53db-8e51-430d-8a83-452bade1b4a4/ “If there are 40 people in your org all doing the same thing and you understand how AI affects that role more than the rest of them, you're not getting laid off.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 Gurley developed a mental exercise asking himself if he saw himself in the same role thirty years later. https://minutesof.com/q/d729e08a-fd3c-4797-8ebc-4ccdf462fef5/ https://minutesof.com/q/d729e08a-fd3c-4797-8ebc-4ccdf462fef5/ “I developed this mental exercise that I didn't realize I was doing, but at the time, but I said to myself, well, a couple years in, we started a third project, looked like the second project, looked like the first project.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 Gurley evaluated his Compaq career by asking if he wanted to be like the thirty-year engineers he saw. https://minutesof.com/q/1ff4964b-7a78-4cea-82ee-fd2decb6e07f/ https://minutesof.com/q/1ff4964b-7a78-4cea-82ee-fd2decb6e07f/ “I said to myself, do I see myself here thirty years from now? And there were people in the building that had been engineers for thirty years, so I could, you know, I could I could get a perspective on it by just thinking, do I wanna be them?” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 Gurley found Dell trading at six times earnings after laptop fire and option hedging problems. https://minutesof.com/q/3e460770-4958-4a5f-8d92-fd49cdb4a8b4/ https://minutesof.com/q/3e460770-4958-4a5f-8d92-fd49cdb4a8b4/ “It was trading at six times earnings. Their laptop had caught on fire, and they had this option hedging strategy gone awry Uh-huh.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 Gurley's ROIC analysis showed Dell had a 10 to 1 advantage over Compaq in inventory and cash flow. https://minutesof.com/q/82a99cbf-a6fd-445b-b414-bc73855ef672/ https://minutesof.com/q/82a99cbf-a6fd-445b-b414-bc73855ef672/ “And they had like a 10 to one advantage over Compaq and the other companies because of how they work their inventory and their positive cash flow cycle.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 Yeah. I mean, if I have one goal of this book, it's to be Uncle Richard for as many people as possible. https://minutesof.com/q/1f081f27-08f9-4585-8d41-b7826d583442/ https://minutesof.com/q/1f081f27-08f9-4585-8d41-b7826d583442/ “Yeah. I mean, if I have one goal of this book, it's to be Uncle Richard for as many people as possible.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 He enrolled in a in a $300 restaurant management course that he found in a magazine on a corner of the street https://minutesof.com/q/5997a8eb-1923-462d-a747-d814c5f04e4f/ https://minutesof.com/q/5997a8eb-1923-462d-a747-d814c5f04e4f/ “He enrolled in a in a $300 restaurant management course that he found in a magazine on a corner of the street in those boxes, you know, in New York.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 Gurley recommends profiling field-defining figures to study what makes them great using available resources. https://minutesof.com/q/3e0e8822-c788-4b8c-9d6f-1f5735a59397/ https://minutesof.com/q/3e0e8822-c788-4b8c-9d6f-1f5735a59397/ “Like if you're gonna go be a writer, you know, have a profile of Michael Lewis and Malcolm Gladwell and Krakauer and like study what makes them great.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 Gurley recommends creating profiles studying great practitioners in your field, saying there's never been bett https://minutesof.com/q/b6bfca2b-5ffc-4c4a-8e50-f68e5b64292c/ https://minutesof.com/q/b6bfca2b-5ffc-4c4a-8e50-f68e5b64292c/ “Like, there's there's never been a better time in the history of the world to learn on your own time. Right. There's so much stuff out there.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 Gurley describes how Bezos developed his 80-year-old self framework while David Shaw tried to retain him. https://minutesof.com/q/6de422b0-7395-4691-b1ed-c93c51b0ea7d/ https://minutesof.com/q/6de422b0-7395-4691-b1ed-c93c51b0ea7d/ “David Shaw was trying he worked at DE Shaw. David Shaw was trying to get him to not go, and he came up with this idea which is” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 Gurley announces Running Down a Dream Foundation offering $105,000 grants to support career transitions. https://minutesof.com/q/ea745484-e04b-4e7e-960d-e269b7cff4cb/ https://minutesof.com/q/ea745484-e04b-4e7e-960d-e269b7cff4cb/ “I was inspired by getting this question a lot, and if you look on the last page in the book, I'm gonna launch a foundation called the Running Down a Dream Foundation.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 Gurley is launching Running Down a Dream Foundation offering $105,000 grants to help people change career dire https://minutesof.com/q/efed3887-2d17-4499-948f-f4ee31fc444d/ https://minutesof.com/q/efed3887-2d17-4499-948f-f4ee31fc444d/ “I we'll see how it goes, but we're gonna offer a $105,000 grants to people who need a little boost to get headed in this direction.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 Gurley argues LLMs contain only existing best practices, so working on the industry edge provides AI protectio https://minutesof.com/q/ad383df2-d709-4518-a543-b4317e57dee8/ https://minutesof.com/q/ad383df2-d709-4518-a543-b4317e57dee8/ “So if you somehow put yourself on the edge of the industry and are thinking about what's coming in the future, you're more future proof from this.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 Gurley cites Cuban's distinction between using LLMs to accelerate learning versus avoiding learning entirely. https://minutesof.com/q/ed64b474-d5b1-49aa-b0af-480f49214056/ https://minutesof.com/q/ed64b474-d5b1-49aa-b0af-480f49214056/ “Mark Cuban the other day tweeted, he said he said there's two types of people. The the people that use LLMs to learn faster and the people that use LLMs to not learn at all.” — Bill Gurley Fri, 06 Mar 2026 02:57:59 +0000 Gurley says Michael Dell acknowledged that Gurley's ROIC analysis revealed insights Dell didn't know about the https://minutesof.com/q/84fbd138-a46d-4cb1-ada9-488239f7e92d/ https://minutesof.com/q/84fbd138-a46d-4cb1-ada9-488239f7e92d/ “Michael kindly tweeted about my book the other day and said he taught us some things we didn't know ourselves about our business.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 Gurley explains Benchmark created an equal partnership structure where all partners earn the same and have equ https://minutesof.com/q/9b9770f2-18a2-4c93-86d5-45ef0cd50c1b/ https://minutesof.com/q/9b9770f2-18a2-4c93-86d5-45ef0cd50c1b/ “The benchmark guys had lived within those frameworks decided to do something crazy, which was to create an equal partnership where everyone makes the exact same amount of money and everyone has the exact same power within the organization for decision making and there's no leader.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 Gurley's Wharton survey found six in ten people would choose a different career path if starting over. https://minutesof.com/q/7288e242-36ad-4e3d-aa42-ae9af2befaff/ https://minutesof.com/q/7288e242-36ad-4e3d-aa42-ae9af2befaff/ “We hired we hired Wharton to do an official academic review, and that one came out six and ten. There's a book by Daniel Pink about regrets called the power of regrets.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 Gurley wrote a post debunking an NYU professor's analysis that Uber would never exceed $4 billion in value. https://minutesof.com/q/8e98f130-77e9-4631-85ed-88969d27f6f7/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e98f130-77e9-4631-85ed-88969d27f6f7/ “He published this piece that said Uber would never be worth more than $4,000,000,000 And I wrote one of my favorite blog posts ever titled How to Miss by a Mile, where I took apart his analysis and tried to well, I had a little I had an unfair advantage.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 Gurley knew Uber was already 20x bigger than taxi market in San Francisco when professor valued it at $4 billi https://minutesof.com/q/2c885987-19ef-4ccb-ae15-63930428aead/ https://minutesof.com/q/2c885987-19ef-4ccb-ae15-63930428aead/ “I already knew in San Francisco that Uber was 20 x bigger than the taxi market. He didn't know that.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 Gurley knew Uber was already 20 times bigger than taxi market in San Francisco contradicting professor's TAM a https://minutesof.com/q/61322fad-fe58-4032-b3d6-1b2d655b4bf8/ https://minutesof.com/q/61322fad-fe58-4032-b3d6-1b2d655b4bf8/ “I already knew in San Francisco that Uber was 20 x bigger than the taxi market.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 Gurley notes the professor analyzing Uber admitted he had never used the product, only taxis. https://minutesof.com/q/8e79f90e-8324-4a57-8462-413113c60312/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e79f90e-8324-4a57-8462-413113c60312/ “Not only that. In in the in the report of his, which a summary version got public, but I found the background version, he admits that he had never ridden Uber and only taken taxis.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 Gurley states Mag Seven companies formerly generated approximately $3.4 trillion in cash flow before CapEx shi https://minutesof.com/q/6b912563-fb9e-4421-a025-79fd80dd6653/ https://minutesof.com/q/6b912563-fb9e-4421-a025-79fd80dd6653/ “I will tell you, I have a couple different answers to this, which I think are quite interesting. First of all, the Mag seven formerly were creating, I don't know, $3,400,000,000,000 in cash flow.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 Gurley warns Microsoft and Google's AI investments may repeat IBM's mistake of empowering a future competitor. https://minutesof.com/q/3dc55801-84c8-4ec3-82aa-d2d2dcd8c013/ https://minutesof.com/q/3dc55801-84c8-4ec3-82aa-d2d2dcd8c013/ “I don't think they're dependent on the partner anymore, and it harkens back in my brain to IBM letting Microsoft put the OS inside their PC.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 Gurley argues most US endowments and foundations are now overinvested in private equity and venture capital. https://minutesof.com/q/0999a2b8-e591-41fb-b3aa-25d197235cbd/ https://minutesof.com/q/0999a2b8-e591-41fb-b3aa-25d197235cbd/ “I think the Swinson mimic effect has now played out. And I think personally that most of the endowments and foundations in The US are over invested in private, both PE and venture.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 Gurley argues most US endowments and foundations are over-invested in private markets with no incentive to get https://minutesof.com/q/8617f662-a82f-411e-8327-239874331e26/ https://minutesof.com/q/8617f662-a82f-411e-8327-239874331e26/ “And I think that the way the industry is structured in this would require longer conversation. There's no incentive for the operators inside of the endowments or foundations to get the paper marks right.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 Gurley says Bezos looks for unbridled determinism in founders who will execute regardless of investor involvem https://minutesof.com/q/2cdb4503-3777-42f5-bbb4-6ad2252df53a/ https://minutesof.com/q/2cdb4503-3777-42f5-bbb4-6ad2252df53a/ “I only look for one thing, which is that this person's going to go do this thing.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley recalls Travis Kalanick's first two companies ending in bankruptcy or minimal returns before Uber. https://minutesof.com/q/f8bbfec5-034b-484a-80d0-c1f0d116fc80/ https://minutesof.com/q/f8bbfec5-034b-484a-80d0-c1f0d116fc80/ “I remember when we did the first Uber investment, Travis, his his first couple of companies, one of them I think ended up in bankruptcy.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley quotes Josh Wolf's saying that chips on shoulders put chips in pockets. https://minutesof.com/q/9debc952-245c-4d9c-a541-e957b82d5039/ https://minutesof.com/q/9debc952-245c-4d9c-a541-e957b82d5039/ “Josh Wolf of Lux Capital has a saying chips on shoulders put chips in pockets.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley emphasizes the person matters more than the concept, citing founders who pivoted 180 degrees. https://minutesof.com/q/f2d02a58-afd8-4623-bd75-15ed6a3f8a86/ https://minutesof.com/q/f2d02a58-afd8-4623-bd75-15ed6a3f8a86/ “And we've seen incredible businesses be built by great founders who have pivoted a 180 degrees from the original idea.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley says at Benchmark's level, 80% of portfolio can fail because winners are so large. https://minutesof.com/q/609cf1a4-66d6-4739-a241-c97d66449e80/ https://minutesof.com/q/609cf1a4-66d6-4739-a241-c97d66449e80/ “The winners are so big at that level, you could have 80% of your portfolio fail. So it's a game that's a lot riskier, and you're searching for the really big outcomes.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley says AI is a huge threat to people following a conveyor belt career path without differentiation. https://minutesof.com/q/caa98154-105e-4482-8dde-375c72e067f6/ https://minutesof.com/q/caa98154-105e-4482-8dde-375c72e067f6/ “I think those people, AI is a huge threat because they're like, they don't really know why they're there.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley argues AI is a jetpack for people running their own lane with bespoke passion and goals. https://minutesof.com/q/bdbc0ac3-335c-4534-ab90-629bf0b1529d/ https://minutesof.com/q/bdbc0ac3-335c-4534-ab90-629bf0b1529d/ “For that individual, is AI a threat or is it a jetpack? I actually think it's a jetpack because now I can go learn about anything I want.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley warns that China's open source AI dynamic creates hypercompetitive weapon politicians don't understand. https://minutesof.com/q/2d1639dd-c74e-45fa-8656-561f596627f3/ https://minutesof.com/q/2d1639dd-c74e-45fa-8656-561f596627f3/ “And I don't think the world, especially the the the politicians understand how, like unbelievably powerful open source is as a a as a weapon, like, as a competitive weapon.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley argues open source creates hypercompetitive dynamics politicians don't understand as competitive weapon https://minutesof.com/q/08fa0e21-7e51-43ed-9d85-3ecb68d0c16f/ https://minutesof.com/q/08fa0e21-7e51-43ed-9d85-3ecb68d0c16f/ “I don't think the world, especially the the the politicians understand how, like unbelievably powerful open source is as a a as a weapon, like, as a competitive weapon.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley argues open source creates hypercompetitive dynamics where innovations are immediately absorbed across https://minutesof.com/q/1a12e93a-ad89-4cbb-b50f-13fa477ab793/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a12e93a-ad89-4cbb-b50f-13fa477ab793/ “And if you have 10 companies all doing open source, the minute an idea is shared, it's available to the other 10, and they absorb it immediately.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley predicts the US cannot stay ahead of China in AI with two proprietary models versus ten open source one https://minutesof.com/q/a2ff5dff-54a5-44d7-86dd-3f44d1147b98/ https://minutesof.com/q/a2ff5dff-54a5-44d7-86dd-3f44d1147b98/ “I think the odds that that, you know, The US with two, you know, proprietary models can stay ahead of China with 10 open source ones is very low.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley reports Chinese VCs told him Chinese founders study US relentlessly while Americans don't study China. https://minutesof.com/q/213fc00d-0261-4795-ad46-bb4d221833ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/213fc00d-0261-4795-ad46-bb4d221833ed/ “They watch the YouTube interviews. They listen to the podcast. They study them like crazy. He said, founders and and VCs in America don't study Chinese.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley says venture funding is now completely preemptive with investors forcing money on companies. https://minutesof.com/q/cc862399-6c8a-4f6a-bc9c-abb6a41f5ed1/ https://minutesof.com/q/cc862399-6c8a-4f6a-bc9c-abb6a41f5ed1/ “So the the the the days when the company would run out of money or get close to running out and decide, oh, we're gonna go raise now is over. Like, the the it's preemptive.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley says Adam Neumann's salesmanship in WeWork Series A was unlike anything he had ever seen. https://minutesof.com/q/f13ccefb-36ee-4378-b791-65b91a91f7c0/ https://minutesof.com/q/f13ccefb-36ee-4378-b791-65b91a91f7c0/ “I remember where I was when he presented to us. Now keep in mind, Benchmark's never done a real estate transaction in the history of the firm.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley recalls WeWork founder's salesmanship was so exceptional he knew thirty minutes into series A they woul https://minutesof.com/q/ac7df29a-adcb-4fc7-8355-62622f8fac4a/ https://minutesof.com/q/ac7df29a-adcb-4fc7-8355-62622f8fac4a/ “I remember where I was when he presented to us. Now keep in mind, Benchmark's never done a real estate transaction in the history of the firm. And we're about thirty minutes into the presentation.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley recalls knowing Benchmark would fund WeWork at Series A despite never doing real estate deals. https://minutesof.com/q/0a9770c4-f5d0-45cf-a291-fa9d1de89d4d/ https://minutesof.com/q/0a9770c4-f5d0-45cf-a291-fa9d1de89d4d/ “Now keep in mind, Benchmark's never done a real estate transaction in the history of the firm. And we're about thirty minutes into the presentation. This is series a.” — BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 Gurley's father was recruited from Langley Air Force Base to help start NASA in Houston. https://minutesof.com/q/e54bff77-b13b-4c9c-8db5-7522ce0d35fc/ https://minutesof.com/q/e54bff77-b13b-4c9c-8db5-7522ce0d35fc/ “And he's working at Langley Air Force Base in a wind tunnel. And someone comes by and ask him and 49 other people working there, would you wanna move to Houston and help start NASA?” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley developed a mental exercise asking if he saw himself in his job thirty years from now. https://minutesof.com/q/7ff17263-0f8b-43a8-89dd-86131d26e796/ https://minutesof.com/q/7ff17263-0f8b-43a8-89dd-86131d26e796/ “I had this I developed this mental exercise that I didn't realize I was doing, but at the time, but I said to myself well, a couple years in, we started a third project, looked like the second project, looked like the first project.” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley used a mental exercise asking if he could see himself doing the same work thirty years later. https://minutesof.com/q/424ef94d-ac9e-4272-b287-5b62af89754d/ https://minutesof.com/q/424ef94d-ac9e-4272-b287-5b62af89754d/ “I developed this mental exercise that I didn't realize I was doing, but at the time, but I said to myself well, a couple years in, we started a third project, looked like the second project, looked like the first project.” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley was the only one among 40 Wall Street MBA hires not from Columbia or Wharton. https://minutesof.com/q/832321e6-3a10-4c10-922e-1c9985ece3b2/ https://minutesof.com/q/832321e6-3a10-4c10-922e-1c9985ece3b2/ “the incoming group of of people from NBA programs that year, there were 40 of us, and I was the only one that wasn't Columbia, Wharton Right. You know, the ones you would expect.” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley spotted Dell trading at six times earnings after laptop fire and hedging problems, then went positive o https://minutesof.com/q/b16043fc-d31a-4df3-90a2-aec40a9592da/ https://minutesof.com/q/b16043fc-d31a-4df3-90a2-aec40a9592da/ “It this the company was in trouble. It was trading at six times earnings. Their laptop had caught on fire, and they had this option hedging strategy gone awry” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley used return on invested capital analysis showing Dell had 10 to 1 advantage over Compaq. https://minutesof.com/q/bf1aff98-560e-4409-b654-777b23386233/ https://minutesof.com/q/bf1aff98-560e-4409-b654-777b23386233/ “we had done some analysis using this new tool called return on invested capital, and they had like a 10 to one advantage over Compact” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley identified Dell's 10-to-1 advantage over Compaq using return on invested capital analysis. https://minutesof.com/q/269b9e7e-cdf5-4505-b7fa-0b3699be1e41/ https://minutesof.com/q/269b9e7e-cdf5-4505-b7fa-0b3699be1e41/ “we had done some analysis using this new tool called return on invested capital, and they had like a 10 to one advantage over Compact and the other companies because of how they worked their inventory and their positive cash flow cycle. And we went positive on it.” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley paused in front of senior offices at 10 PM asking if he wanted that career path. https://minutesof.com/q/f8252270-9009-4ecc-80bd-3bc31344ebe4/ https://minutesof.com/q/f8252270-9009-4ecc-80bd-3bc31344ebe4/ “I don't even know why I did this in front of each of those four offices and said, is that gonna be me?” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley recounts how Danny Meyer's uncle gave permission to pursue restaurants instead of law school. https://minutesof.com/q/ec2b2104-2c54-4d50-a44c-97817a4376ac/ https://minutesof.com/q/ec2b2104-2c54-4d50-a44c-97817a4376ac/ “And this led to a conversation where his uncle Richard told him, you know, Danny, all you ever do is think about restaurants.” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley recommends keeping fanboy journals studying people defining your field to accelerate learning. https://minutesof.com/q/fb772c10-a729-43ff-9fee-b1af465bbe9b/ https://minutesof.com/q/fb772c10-a729-43ff-9fee-b1af465bbe9b/ “Like, there's there's never been a better time in the history of the world to learn on your own time.” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley describes high school teacher who built football play categorization app with 700,000 followers after s https://minutesof.com/q/9898740b-1449-4e96-935a-dd07e05ac1fb/ https://minutesof.com/q/9898740b-1449-4e96-935a-dd07e05ac1fb/ “And it took about five years, but he launched a website where he categorizes offensive football plays, and then he created created a software app.” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley is launching a foundation offering $105,000 grants to help people change career direction. https://minutesof.com/q/89fcf22c-d27b-4bef-b8f5-fb26349dc357/ https://minutesof.com/q/89fcf22c-d27b-4bef-b8f5-fb26349dc357/ “I we'll see how it goes, but we're gonna offer a $105,000 grants to people who need a little boost to get headed in this direction.” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley advises being the most AI-enabled version of yourself using tractor versus donkey analogy. https://minutesof.com/q/580a1c41-7aa9-4ac2-806a-f5ebc5f6acb0/ https://minutesof.com/q/580a1c41-7aa9-4ac2-806a-f5ebc5f6acb0/ “One, in any role in any field, be the most AI enabled version of yourself you can possibly be.” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley advises being the most AI-enabled version of yourself in any field, citing tool evolution. https://minutesof.com/q/d485ee07-a5c6-4807-82f2-90f6d3462741/ https://minutesof.com/q/d485ee07-a5c6-4807-82f2-90f6d3462741/ “in any role in any field, be the most AI enabled version of yourself you can possibly be. There's tons of anthropologists that have written about how we evolve with our tools.” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley argues those who best understand AI's impact on their role won't be laid off. https://minutesof.com/q/ad682a9f-d25d-42f4-82c8-b189e1b608f6/ https://minutesof.com/q/ad682a9f-d25d-42f4-82c8-b189e1b608f6/ “if there are 40 people in your org all doing the same thing, and you understand how AI affects that role more than the rest of them, you're not getting laid off.” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley quotes Cuban's distinction between using LLMs to learn faster versus not learning at all. https://minutesof.com/q/c56db1eb-8fb8-40d3-a029-f506fb068417/ https://minutesof.com/q/c56db1eb-8fb8-40d3-a029-f506fb068417/ “Mark Cuban the other day tweeted, he said he said there's two types of people. The the people that use LLMs to learn faster and the people that use LLMs to not learn at all.” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley cites Mark Cuban distinguishing people who use LLMs to learn faster versus not learn at all. https://minutesof.com/q/115921b9-8451-43d9-bef1-5283c15e4b26/ https://minutesof.com/q/115921b9-8451-43d9-bef1-5283c15e4b26/ “The the people that use LLMs to learn faster and the people that use LLMs to not learn at all. I thought that was profound.” — Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California Mon, 02 Mar 2026 17:48:19 +0000 Gurley quotes Bezos saying he only invests when founders will pursue their vision regardless of funding. https://minutesof.com/q/10df2b7e-f9fd-41d2-8226-4072329498b9/ https://minutesof.com/q/10df2b7e-f9fd-41d2-8226-4072329498b9/ “I only look for one thing. I want to know that this person's gonna go do this thing come hell or high water, whether I invest or not.” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley says Nadella diagnosed Microsoft as a know-it-all culture and transformed it into a learn-it-all cultur https://minutesof.com/q/2f3ab552-4b93-4fe6-832f-f083289b0978/ https://minutesof.com/q/2f3ab552-4b93-4fe6-832f-f083289b0978/ “And he said, he told everyone we're gonna change it from a know it all culture to a learn it all culture.” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley says Silicon Valley has nightly networking events that massively increase probability of lucky career b https://minutesof.com/q/bd3e637e-2f2d-4980-8274-80bae7de86c5/ https://minutesof.com/q/bd3e637e-2f2d-4980-8274-80bae7de86c5/ “And on top of all that, what I just said, a lot of people talk about luck in their career path.” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley argues that being in an industry epicenter dramatically increases probability of lucky career events. https://minutesof.com/q/99610be0-161f-44f9-8c27-dddfa5cd1062/ https://minutesof.com/q/99610be0-161f-44f9-8c27-dddfa5cd1062/ “In the epicenter, your probability of lucky events goes way up. Way up. And so, if you can do it, do it. There's this belief we all have that competition makes it too hard.” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley explains tech stock selloffs occur because terminal value collapses if AI threatens twenty-year surviva https://minutesof.com/q/7339e8da-6ddc-4065-b386-8fef28d5a1bd/ https://minutesof.com/q/7339e8da-6ddc-4065-b386-8fef28d5a1bd/ “And for most of these high-tech companies, the next five years cash flow are a fraction of their actual market cap, which means all the values in the terminal value.” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley explains tech valuations depend on terminal value, so existential concerns collapse price-to-earnings m https://minutesof.com/q/481b12da-0839-4433-a067-c6a1fe9888fd/ https://minutesof.com/q/481b12da-0839-4433-a067-c6a1fe9888fd/ “for most of these high-tech companies, the next five years cash flow are a fraction of their actual market cap, which means all the values in the terminal value.” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley describes how industrialized VC funds now offer money to keep best companies private. https://minutesof.com/q/6a5f3f7b-3269-4581-b7f4-64d1c31737cb/ https://minutesof.com/q/6a5f3f7b-3269-4581-b7f4-64d1c31737cb/ “And one of the things that they've decided to do is to approach the companies, the best in class companies, and offer them money to stay private” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley says Stripe and Databricks were expected to IPO five or six years ago but may never go public. https://minutesof.com/q/0780dd00-dc2f-4fe8-a79c-13c49036a66b/ https://minutesof.com/q/0780dd00-dc2f-4fe8-a79c-13c49036a66b/ “And so, you know, companies like Stripe and Databricks, you know, people thought they were going to go public five or six years ago.” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley notes Collison brothers suggest Stripe may never go public as VC funds tell LPs companies stay private. https://minutesof.com/q/634d2f2e-c752-4b65-8f72-e0eb7b468a28/ https://minutesof.com/q/634d2f2e-c752-4b65-8f72-e0eb7b468a28/ “And those funds that do that turn around and tell the LPs these are the foundations and the endowments that invest in these type of things. You know, these companies aren't going public anymore.” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley argues IPOs should match supply and demand through bidding, calling current handpicked pricing process https://minutesof.com/q/98bb7ed5-e319-49d0-8616-723e71624c85/ https://minutesof.com/q/98bb7ed5-e319-49d0-8616-723e71624c85/ “So if you ask any first year comp sci student and first year finance student to write a model of how an IPO should work, you would allow everyone to bid and you would award the shares to the highest bidder. It's just not like, it's not, it should just be tautological.” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley argues IPOs should match supply and demand through bidding rather than bankers handpicking prices. https://minutesof.com/q/67c8c5c8-b48a-46b3-a440-d13eba3c321e/ https://minutesof.com/q/67c8c5c8-b48a-46b3-a440-d13eba3c321e/ “if you ask any first year comp sci student and first year finance student to write a model of how an IPO should work, you would allow everyone to bid and you would award the shares to the highest bidder. It's just not like, it's not, it should just be tautological.” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley argues any first-year student would design IPOs to award shares to highest bidder, not handpicked price https://minutesof.com/q/fc370fe8-5fec-4cf4-afd1-14c8335032f9/ https://minutesof.com/q/fc370fe8-5fec-4cf4-afd1-14c8335032f9/ “It's just not like, it's not, it should just be tautological. Like I don't know why there would be any debate.” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley notes bonds and crypto ICOs already use supply-demand matching that IPOs avoid. https://minutesof.com/q/803966fe-41dd-4bd0-b690-1b8da3d43d6c/ https://minutesof.com/q/803966fe-41dd-4bd0-b690-1b8da3d43d6c/ “And by the way, that's how every bond is priced. And that's by the way, how all the initial coin offerings work in the crypto world. It's just what you would do.” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley criticizes bankers handpicking IPO prices and allocating shares only to top clients. https://minutesof.com/q/5e367992-f39c-4964-b97f-e9bc6790e19a/ https://minutesof.com/q/5e367992-f39c-4964-b97f-e9bc6790e19a/ “Why would you have a handpicked price when we know how to match supply and demand? And then they really only offer it to their top clients, which is just nutty.” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley says Nasdaq and NYSE pushed for direct listings but banks were dragged into it reluctantly. https://minutesof.com/q/17cf0633-abdf-43ea-97de-94b6e5dbf841/ https://minutesof.com/q/17cf0633-abdf-43ea-97de-94b6e5dbf841/ “They were dragged into direct listings. I would I would say because I spent a ton of time with them, both the Nasdaq and the NYSE were pushing to get these things across the line,” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley says the IPO market has consolidated from the four horsemen to an oligopoly of three big banks. https://minutesof.com/q/d2c0ae16-a5df-4de8-8d4c-94808e207ac5/ https://minutesof.com/q/d2c0ae16-a5df-4de8-8d4c-94808e207ac5/ “It's very common to see all three of the big banks on the cover. And so it's really become a oligopoly of sorts.” — Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 Gurley cites 2023 Gallup poll showing 53% of people are disengaged at work. https://minutesof.com/q/7f935901-587d-4b6a-850f-e2b9f4a19ed8/ https://minutesof.com/q/7f935901-587d-4b6a-850f-e2b9f4a19ed8/ “there was a Gallup poll in 2023 that like 53% of people are disengaged at work. And that's not great. We've all heard about quiet quitting.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley notes colleges now require major selection at application, three years earlier than before. https://minutesof.com/q/4929f331-2568-4fb1-86f3-13aa92e00e07/ https://minutesof.com/q/4929f331-2568-4fb1-86f3-13aa92e00e07/ “Now they make kids apply to majors when they apply to college a So lot of you've brought that forward like three years.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley says regrets of inaction weigh on people's minds increasingly over time, unlike mistakes they forgive t https://minutesof.com/q/6a742d8a-a0b3-45f6-82af-888d3033963f/ https://minutesof.com/q/6a742d8a-a0b3-45f6-82af-888d3033963f/ “But the thing we never did, the thing we always thought we should do that we didn't get to, those things weigh on our brain more and more and more as we get older.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 he says, seventeen hours a day on Skype together for four years. And so what's going on there? Well, they're c https://minutesof.com/q/20c6fd76-79e8-4215-aa5a-0bb2a4c16a4d/ https://minutesof.com/q/20c6fd76-79e8-4215-aa5a-0bb2a4c16a4d/ “he says, seventeen hours a day on Skype together for four years. And so what's going on there? Well, they're co learning what it takes to be successful on YouTube.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley reports Mr. Beast says all four members of his learning group became millionaires with million-plus fol https://minutesof.com/q/58f9c142-8f92-4a9c-9fee-94db46dd1b85/ https://minutesof.com/q/58f9c142-8f92-4a9c-9fee-94db46dd1b85/ “And he says all four of them ended up with over a million followers, all four of them ended up millionaires.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley describes how Mr. Beast's learning group of four all became millionaires with over a million followers. https://minutesof.com/q/4bad9f2d-d8bf-4815-aec7-b9f531404c04/ https://minutesof.com/q/4bad9f2d-d8bf-4815-aec7-b9f531404c04/ “he says all four of them ended up with over a million followers, all four of them ended up millionaires.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley claims learning and finding mentors is 10 to 100 times easier in industry epicenters. https://minutesof.com/q/a3143ba1-2194-42fb-b850-a048264658f3/ https://minutesof.com/q/a3143ba1-2194-42fb-b850-a048264658f3/ “But the thing is many of the principles that I have in the book from constant learning to peers and mentors are just 10 to a 100 times easier if you're right in the middle of it with everybody else.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley reports lawyers at large firms have already drastically reduced paralegal numbers due to AI. https://minutesof.com/q/f7bb00b0-24c5-4df8-a81b-e781d355b46b/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7bb00b0-24c5-4df8-a81b-e781d355b46b/ “I've talked to lawyers that run large firms that have already drastically reduced the number of paralegals. So it's not theoretical at this point. It's real.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley argues workers must understand AI's impact on their industry, comparing it to farmers adopting tractors https://minutesof.com/q/07fe252d-9546-46a1-abc7-fc9c55ad9be5/ https://minutesof.com/q/07fe252d-9546-46a1-abc7-fc9c55ad9be5/ “Like if this technology has the ability to impact your industry, you need to know about it.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley argues people in safe jobs they don't love are most vulnerable to AI disruption. https://minutesof.com/q/4f0d167a-35b5-48bd-9263-9f07b3fd4a9f/ https://minutesof.com/q/4f0d167a-35b5-48bd-9263-9f07b3fd4a9f/ “I think a lot of the people that go through that college conveyor belt that are chasing a safe job that end up working as a widget or a cog in an industry they may not love, I think they are ripe for disruption.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley argues current moment offers unprecedented learning speed, making AI an advantage for continuous learne https://minutesof.com/q/8a8260bc-8190-4802-9482-80f1b2b916c4/ https://minutesof.com/q/8a8260bc-8190-4802-9482-80f1b2b916c4/ “And so if you're constantly learning, honing, if you're figuring out how to get AI to help you be more productive, you're gonna have even better chance of winning.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley argues heavy regulation consistently produces oligopolies, citing airplane manufacturing as extreme exa https://minutesof.com/q/7a002360-69af-41ea-857e-f3a041edf25c/ https://minutesof.com/q/7a002360-69af-41ea-857e-f3a041edf25c/ “in almost every industry in The US where there's heavy regulation, you've ended up with less diversity, fewer companies, more of a oligopoly.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley argues Anthropic and OpenAI seek regulation to handicap startups and open source competitors. https://minutesof.com/q/ffc48012-9190-40a1-87fa-32418d245252/ https://minutesof.com/q/ffc48012-9190-40a1-87fa-32418d245252/ “I think for certain reason Anthropic and OpenAI are begging for regulation is so that they can write rules that make it harder for startups, open source models to be competitive with them, which I think is very rational for them to do, but I don't think it's good for society.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley warns undiplomatic behavior could push global partners toward China, which he saw performing strongly i https://minutesof.com/q/955af3a7-4baa-4e57-b7f9-5b9cf593e8d5/ https://minutesof.com/q/955af3a7-4baa-4e57-b7f9-5b9cf593e8d5/ “if we are undiplomatic with our partners around the globe, that they will, it'll be more easier for them to rationalize agreements with China.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley warns undiplomatic US behavior could push global partners toward China, which he observed hitting on ma https://minutesof.com/q/7cf16c90-29fb-4730-8e61-827c1b244cb7/ https://minutesof.com/q/7cf16c90-29fb-4730-8e61-827c1b244cb7/ “And China is, I just spent some time there in August is hitting on many, many cylinders.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley warns alienating trade partners could result in China serving global AI markets while America is isolat https://minutesof.com/q/0c8bc270-d6cb-4864-b503-8419ab63acb2/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c8bc270-d6cb-4864-b503-8419ab63acb2/ “I think this could even happen with AI models where there's a fence around America and China's serving the rest of the world.” — On with Kara Swisher Thu, 26 Feb 2026 15:18:55 +0000 Gurley used a thirty-year thought experiment to test career fit, mirroring Bezos's eighty-year self framework. https://minutesof.com/q/a3651980-8734-498a-8c16-eb6146bb9791/ https://minutesof.com/q/a3651980-8734-498a-8c16-eb6146bb9791/ “I don't know that I said, I'm doing this exercise kind of like Bezos did when he started. But I said to myself, do I see myself doing this thirty years from now?” — Lux Capital Wed, 25 Feb 2026 18:19:27 +0000 Gurley evaluated career paths by asking if he could see himself doing the job thirty years later. https://minutesof.com/q/296af2b4-ee3c-47fc-bc06-69af9d9b396e/ https://minutesof.com/q/296af2b4-ee3c-47fc-bc06-69af9d9b396e/ “And you can look around the org and see the people that have been in that type of job that long and look at their life and just say, is that something I would enjoy?” — Lux Capital Wed, 25 Feb 2026 18:19:27 +0000 Gurley walked Wall Street offices late at night to visualize his future as a senior analyst. https://minutesof.com/q/ecec9fb5-75bf-41cb-a956-a4584f083fdd/ https://minutesof.com/q/ecec9fb5-75bf-41cb-a956-a4584f083fdd/ “I walked around the office late one night, about 10PM Park Avenue Plaza and the 63rd, 36th Floor and the corner offices were the most senior sell side analysts.” — Lux Capital Wed, 25 Feb 2026 18:19:27 +0000 Gurley's Wharton survey found sixty percent of people would choose a different career path if starting over. https://minutesof.com/q/32baf5d4-6e14-47e9-bc99-6c3c5fc893e6/ https://minutesof.com/q/32baf5d4-6e14-47e9-bc99-6c3c5fc893e6/ “We did a survey with Wharton and said, if you could go back and start over, would you choose a different career path? And sixty percent of people said yes.” — Lux Capital Wed, 25 Feb 2026 18:19:27 +0000 Gurley argues Silicon Valley offers daily networking events that accelerate learning and connections by 10X or https://minutesof.com/q/03760161-e749-4114-b136-d044c6c1761b/ https://minutesof.com/q/03760161-e749-4114-b136-d044c6c1761b/ “if you're in Silicon Valley and you have time, you can find an event every night. And at that event, you might meet a peer.” — Lux Capital Wed, 25 Feb 2026 18:19:27 +0000 Gurley describes Fidel reading a Rolling Stone article about Apple stars at General Magic. https://minutesof.com/q/7d4fc412-745c-4a83-a9f6-705687534200/ https://minutesof.com/q/7d4fc412-745c-4a83-a9f6-705687534200/ “He read a Rolling Stone magazine article, which I just sent it. I found the copy on eBay and sent it to him that mentioned the, the stars of Apple.” — Lux Capital Wed, 25 Feb 2026 18:19:27 +0000 Gurley describes Fidel stalking General Magic for six months after reading Rolling Stone, passing up Apple off https://minutesof.com/q/d8b5c536-ad1f-4efe-8ef1-b4a77f9e0443/ https://minutesof.com/q/d8b5c536-ad1f-4efe-8ef1-b4a77f9e0443/ “These were the individuals of Apple and they had all left to go to a company, General Magic. He didn't know what they did.” — Lux Capital Wed, 25 Feb 2026 18:19:27 +0000 Gurley clarifies Google presented to Benchmark at 25 employees shortly after he joined the firm. https://minutesof.com/q/ca552e7d-f09a-464d-b7f3-4fdfef5e1836/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca552e7d-f09a-464d-b7f3-4fdfef5e1836/ “I had Larry and Sergei present to the Benchmark partnership shortly after I joined Benchmark with the company had 25 employees, Google.” — Lux Capital Wed, 25 Feb 2026 18:19:27 +0000 Gurley learned from missing Google that passing on an outlier costs a thousand times more than a loss. https://minutesof.com/q/c2d538e0-39f3-4b30-bb37-c33459b118df/ https://minutesof.com/q/c2d538e0-39f3-4b30-bb37-c33459b118df/ “I came out of that with a little bit of your chips on shoulder situation and a little bit more having a higher recognition of an asymmetric wrist indenture and that missing an outlier cost you a thousand X or more than a loss.” — Lux Capital Wed, 25 Feb 2026 18:19:27 +0000 Gurley says Benchmark focused quarterly reviews on studying missed deals rather than failed investments. https://minutesof.com/q/44050377-0527-43b9-bcb4-1124d33dd02b/ https://minutesof.com/q/44050377-0527-43b9-bcb4-1124d33dd02b/ “from that day on, we never spent much time talking about the failures. We never beat up a partner because a deal didn't work, but we would once a quarter study the deals we didn't do at nauseum and talk about why we either didn't see them or passed on them” — Lux Capital Wed, 25 Feb 2026 18:19:27 +0000 Gurley describes Collison probing how Elon uses extreme time constraints to force creative problem-solving. https://minutesof.com/q/a2409465-2c94-4b6a-8dbf-b96b4305f230/ https://minutesof.com/q/a2409465-2c94-4b6a-8dbf-b96b4305f230/ “I think the world has been trying to figure out how Elon does what he does, especially from a leadership standpoint.” — Lux Capital Wed, 25 Feb 2026 18:19:27 +0000 Gurley explains Elon Musk uses time constraints like Jobs used physical constraints to force creative problem- https://minutesof.com/q/1b279f95-2661-444d-b88c-037818116aba/ https://minutesof.com/q/1b279f95-2661-444d-b88c-037818116aba/ “And I realized what he's doing is the exact jobs would tell them the phone has to be this thick.” — Lux Capital Wed, 25 Feb 2026 18:19:27 +0000 Gurley realized Elon uses time constraints like Jobs used physical constraints to force creative problem-solvi https://minutesof.com/q/8fc3f7a1-bfa6-44ae-9fbb-172460c5ab3b/ https://minutesof.com/q/8fc3f7a1-bfa6-44ae-9fbb-172460c5ab3b/ “I realized what he's doing is the exact jobs would tell them the phone has to be this thick. And then their mind can only operate within that constraint. And Elon's doing that with time.” — Lux Capital Wed, 25 Feb 2026 18:19:27 +0000 Gurley says modern venture capitalists refuse to take meetings on anything that is not AI-related. https://minutesof.com/q/6803df25-a6a8-4d80-9924-ba2cd86f9707/ https://minutesof.com/q/6803df25-a6a8-4d80-9924-ba2cd86f9707/ “There's a reality where a modern venture capitalist does not wanna take a meeting in anything on AI.” — Young and Profiting Mon, 23 Feb 2026 11:01:05 +0000 Gurley's survey found seven out of ten people would choose a different career if they could start over. https://minutesof.com/q/4c22dd27-ed0e-422d-be6c-57c572e94ca1/ https://minutesof.com/q/4c22dd27-ed0e-422d-be6c-57c572e94ca1/ “We ask a thousand people, if you could start your career over again, would you do something different? Seven out of 10 said yes.” — Young and Profiting Mon, 23 Feb 2026 11:01:05 +0000 Gurley describes how technology waves attract speculators who rush in after seeing quick wealth creation. https://minutesof.com/q/60b72bce-4c3d-4330-a6a9-9d3a307862ce/ https://minutesof.com/q/60b72bce-4c3d-4330-a6a9-9d3a307862ce/ “One of the things that happens any time there's a technology wave is people get rich quick and then a whole bunch of people see people getting rich quick and they rush in.” — Young and Profiting Mon, 23 Feb 2026 11:01:05 +0000 Gurley suggests we may be in an AI bubble where people are doing speculative things that don't usually work. https://minutesof.com/q/1e467aea-35c7-47e2-bbee-e2c6e297a62e/ https://minutesof.com/q/1e467aea-35c7-47e2-bbee-e2c6e297a62e/ “When you're in a bubbly time, and we may be right now with AI, people do silly things, things that don't usually work. They get very speculative.” — Young and Profiting Mon, 23 Feb 2026 11:01:05 +0000 Gurley reports survey finding that seven out of ten people would choose a different career. https://minutesof.com/q/cd4fdf2d-f305-4418-a954-055b1438b4ca/ https://minutesof.com/q/cd4fdf2d-f305-4418-a954-055b1438b4ca/ “we asked a thousand people, if you could start your career over again, would you do something different? And seven out of 10 said yes.” — Young and Profiting Mon, 23 Feb 2026 11:01:05 +0000 Gurley expresses sadness that venture capitalists are completely uninterested in non-AI companies right now. https://minutesof.com/q/c7bf87f2-a024-4f3a-9a5c-99506143e0c5/ https://minutesof.com/q/c7bf87f2-a024-4f3a-9a5c-99506143e0c5/ “There is a reality where a modern venture capitalist does not want to take a meeting, uninterested in anything on AI.” — Young and Profiting Mon, 23 Feb 2026 11:01:05 +0000 Gurley acknowledges VC's AI-only focus may be rationally correct behavior but creates hardship for non-AI foun https://minutesof.com/q/16efa965-b8dd-4e1f-9cbe-d2e0b9d136e5/ https://minutesof.com/q/16efa965-b8dd-4e1f-9cbe-d2e0b9d136e5/ “But I I think it's unquestionably true. Like there's just zero interest. And so that's a tough call for someone that's in a business that may have good unit economics that's not AI.” — Young and Profiting Mon, 23 Feb 2026 11:01:05 +0000 Gurley argues the lifetime value formula causes more trouble for founders than success. https://minutesof.com/q/f2e50a80-64df-4924-a980-f2ed6d99078b/ https://minutesof.com/q/f2e50a80-64df-4924-a980-f2ed6d99078b/ “I think people get into more trouble with the LTV formula than they do, then they get success out of it.” — Young and Profiting Mon, 23 Feb 2026 11:01:05 +0000 Gurley argues running Google ads is the least creative, most ignorant way to acquire customers. https://minutesof.com/q/4297f1a0-74f0-435f-ab4a-629e3773f052/ https://minutesof.com/q/4297f1a0-74f0-435f-ab4a-629e3773f052/ “I've always felt that if you're starting a business, the easiest way you could possibly get a customer, the first way the most ignorant person would assume to go get a customer would be to run a Google ad.” — Young and Profiting Mon, 23 Feb 2026 11:01:05 +0000 Gurley describes how most venture rounds now happen proactively with investors forcing money on companies. https://minutesof.com/q/ae60960c-a694-44bf-b8d8-4994eeaf7e61/ https://minutesof.com/q/ae60960c-a694-44bf-b8d8-4994eeaf7e61/ “Someone thinks you're doing well and knocked on the door and is force feeding you money. And that is currently the way things happen.” — Young and Profiting Mon, 23 Feb 2026 11:01:05 +0000 Gurley describes current venture capital as sport of Kings fight to the death, different from past era. https://minutesof.com/q/f5151417-8649-4570-900f-ca38eeb6fd93/ https://minutesof.com/q/f5151417-8649-4570-900f-ca38eeb6fd93/ “I say it's not your father's venture capital. This is a sport of Kings world we've evolved into and it's fight to the death.” — Young and Profiting Mon, 23 Feb 2026 11:01:05 +0000 Gurley warns disciplined fundraising means irrelevance when competitors each have $500M to deploy. https://minutesof.com/q/31de15b5-68e7-49d3-b472-5ff831b08736/ https://minutesof.com/q/31de15b5-68e7-49d3-b472-5ff831b08736/ “Well, if you're the disciplined one and there's six players with $500,000,000 each hiring salespeople, you're not going to matter.” — Young and Profiting Mon, 23 Feb 2026 11:01:05 +0000 Gurley credits Dara with building Uber to $200 billion valuation with over $10 billion annual free cash flow. https://minutesof.com/q/1a7859d1-d819-4fae-9b87-9f34272d6e9d/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a7859d1-d819-4fae-9b87-9f34272d6e9d/ “And Dara has done an amazing job. I mean, to take it from there to $200,000,000,000 public company, over 10,000,000,000 a year in free cash flow, like from where we were. Yeah, unbelievable.” — Young and Profiting Mon, 23 Feb 2026 11:01:05 +0000 Gurley cites current employee engagement at fifteen-year lows with 58% disengaged and some actively underminin https://minutesof.com/q/e5d5ab0b-d466-4bc8-908a-e45ba2aecc79/ https://minutesof.com/q/e5d5ab0b-d466-4bc8-908a-e45ba2aecc79/ “58% of people say they're not engaged at work. 15 of those 58 say they're quiet quitting. These are horrible numbers.” — Scott D. Clary - Success Story Podcast Sun, 22 Feb 2026 21:44:44 +0000 Gurley cites 58% disengagement and 15% quiet quitting data, contrasts with founders' constant learning require https://minutesof.com/q/00d99650-22a6-4a18-b5db-7665be4ac472/ https://minutesof.com/q/00d99650-22a6-4a18-b5db-7665be4ac472/ “15 of those 58 say they're quiet quitting. These are horrible numbers. Founders live on the edge of a new technological shift constantly, and they can't not know what's happening next.” — Scott D. Clary - Success Story Podcast Sun, 22 Feb 2026 21:44:44 +0000 Gurley argues founders must constantly study new technology at a level uncommon in most other industries. https://minutesof.com/q/6807cebd-2822-43b5-96cf-71604b3bd1b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/6807cebd-2822-43b5-96cf-71604b3bd1b1/ “Founders live on the edge of a new technological shift constantly, and they can't not know what's happening next. It requires a level of studying that is foreign in other industries and other fields.” — Scott D. Clary - Success Story Podcast Sun, 22 Feb 2026 21:44:44 +0000 Gurley realized by his second year as an engineer that repeating similar projects wasn't his long-term path. https://minutesof.com/q/4d348b2c-5228-4515-8051-d65b5d880c38/ https://minutesof.com/q/4d348b2c-5228-4515-8051-d65b5d880c38/ “I was an engineer. I had an engineering degree in undergrad and you know, in my second year as an engineer, you know, we were starting the third project I had worked on and it looked like the second and it looked like the first” — Scott D. Clary - Success Story Podcast Sun, 22 Feb 2026 21:44:44 +0000 Gurley partnered with Wharton researcher to study career regret, finding six in ten would choose differently i https://minutesof.com/q/db8bf543-f98c-42c9-a482-150c4f2a023b/ https://minutesof.com/q/db8bf543-f98c-42c9-a482-150c4f2a023b/ “We partnered with Wharton and did a much broader one. Ours was seven and ten, theirs came back six and ten.” — Scott D. Clary - Success Story Podcast Sun, 22 Feb 2026 21:44:44 +0000 Gurley's Wharton survey confirmed six in ten people would choose a different career if starting over. https://minutesof.com/q/5d379f90-7ae1-49e3-bd52-a0b2f868739f/ https://minutesof.com/q/5d379f90-7ae1-49e3-bd52-a0b2f868739f/ “Ours was seven and ten, theirs came back six and ten. I mean, it's still” — Scott D. Clary - Success Story Podcast Sun, 22 Feb 2026 21:44:44 +0000 Gurley cites Gallup data showing 58% not engaged at work, 15% actively quiet quitting. https://minutesof.com/q/58a11ff1-26a6-4d1b-99c7-ed8cbb5b91b3/ https://minutesof.com/q/58a11ff1-26a6-4d1b-99c7-ed8cbb5b91b3/ “58% of people say they're not engaged at work and 15 of those 58 say they're they're, they're quite quitting. They're like intentionally trying to undermine the organization, but these are, these are horrible numbers,” — Scott D. Clary - Success Story Podcast Sun, 22 Feb 2026 21:44:44 +0000 Gurley's test for true passion is whether you would study the topic in free time instead of consuming entertai https://minutesof.com/q/5fb548fc-2cd5-4f3f-afbb-14cb689a44d1/ https://minutesof.com/q/5fb548fc-2cd5-4f3f-afbb-14cb689a44d1/ “I have a test that I think is the right test for whether something is the type of passion where the tools in this book could help you be successful.” — Scott D. Clary - Success Story Podcast Sun, 22 Feb 2026 21:44:44 +0000 Gurley's test for career passion is whether you would spend free time learning about the topic. https://minutesof.com/q/3c855cc8-44e9-4f03-a0f8-429ac883fb84/ https://minutesof.com/q/3c855cc8-44e9-4f03-a0f8-429ac883fb84/ “And that is simply, would you spend time outside of work learning about this topic?” — Scott D. Clary - Success Story Podcast Sun, 22 Feb 2026 21:44:44 +0000 Gurley cites Danny Meyer leaving a $200,000 salary forty years ago to pursue restaurants. https://minutesof.com/q/091b25bb-7b45-47f1-8490-77018332d2e3/ https://minutesof.com/q/091b25bb-7b45-47f1-8490-77018332d2e3/ “Danny Meyer, when he, he walked away from a sales job, this company that sold these devices that hook into clothes so that you can't steal them from stores.” — Scott D. Clary - Success Story Podcast Sun, 22 Feb 2026 21:44:44 +0000 Gurley cites Danny Meyer walking away from $200,000 salary forty years ago to pursue restaurant career. https://minutesof.com/q/93860fd2-2474-43f2-8707-b3d8c7f109ab/ https://minutesof.com/q/93860fd2-2474-43f2-8707-b3d8c7f109ab/ “He was making over $200,000 a year and this was forty years ago. And so that's a lot” — Scott D. Clary - Success Story Podcast Sun, 22 Feb 2026 21:44:44 +0000 Gurley brought Larry and Sergey to Benchmark at 25 employees but the firm failed to invest in Google. https://minutesof.com/q/01f70b00-ec3b-436a-8ae4-0640c38a5d44/ https://minutesof.com/q/01f70b00-ec3b-436a-8ae4-0640c38a5d44/ “I had the, both the fortune and now the, the kind of weight of having brought Larry and Sergey in to present to our partnership when they were 25 employees.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley argues regulation most often protects incumbents despite public perception to the contrary. https://minutesof.com/q/ccc05c29-4691-41ad-8142-64dbb600f1a9/ https://minutesof.com/q/ccc05c29-4691-41ad-8142-64dbb600f1a9/ “regulation, I'd say most often ends up protecting the incumbent and the world thinks the opposite is true.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley argues regulation most often protects incumbents rather than constraining them, contrary to public perc https://minutesof.com/q/215c21bd-994d-4541-9559-926a502c2efe/ https://minutesof.com/q/215c21bd-994d-4541-9559-926a502c2efe/ “And so companies get big, they spend money lobbying, they spend time in Washington and they get laws written to help them rather than to constrain them.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley plans to study countries with less regulatory capture to understand their policies for his new institut https://minutesof.com/q/1a0adeee-226d-4131-af88-79ef3ed9fa4e/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a0adeee-226d-4131-af88-79ef3ed9fa4e/ “Want to, and this will be part of my new thing. I want to go study countries that have less of it and try and understand the policies.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley notes committee members fundraise across jurisdictions, which he finds inappropriate. https://minutesof.com/q/d8b087a9-0d6f-4746-bf78-1a06e70d41d4/ https://minutesof.com/q/d8b087a9-0d6f-4746-bf78-1a06e70d41d4/ “One thing that's really amazing that most Americans probably don't realize is once your senator or congressman goes on a committee, they start fundraising in other jurisdictions.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley notes congressmen on committees can fundraise from relevant industries nationwide, which seems inapprop https://minutesof.com/q/8177fc33-cd61-4424-aaea-f05b0a74f87c/ https://minutesof.com/q/8177fc33-cd61-4424-aaea-f05b0a74f87c/ “Like if you're on the finance committee, you can go raise money from every bank around the country. That just doesn't seem appropriate.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley argues capitalism and democracy corrupt each other over time, with most broken industries being most re https://minutesof.com/q/71229363-71be-4b54-a271-59a7ce8e8e4f/ https://minutesof.com/q/71229363-71be-4b54-a271-59a7ce8e8e4f/ “No, I think it's gotten worse over time. I made up this statement once that capitalism and democracy corrupt each other over time. Like at the starting state, everything's fine.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley states capitalism and democracy corrupt each other over time as they commingle. https://minutesof.com/q/7326d4bb-2116-4a3f-a8cb-19023bd7d129/ https://minutesof.com/q/7326d4bb-2116-4a3f-a8cb-19023bd7d129/ “I made up this statement once that capitalism and democracy corrupt each other over time. Like at the starting state, everything's fine.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley states capitalism and democracy corrupt each other over time through prolonged commingling. https://minutesof.com/q/1fae7a7f-fcef-425f-a897-db976affd607/ https://minutesof.com/q/1fae7a7f-fcef-425f-a897-db976affd607/ “capitalism and democracy corrupt each other over time. Like at the starting state, everything's fine. But as they get to commingle for a really, really, really long period of time” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley says the current AI bubble is unlike anything he has seen in his career including previous tech waves. https://minutesof.com/q/e42070a1-55b7-416d-9110-73d3f21efc04/ https://minutesof.com/q/e42070a1-55b7-416d-9110-73d3f21efc04/ “Yes. And in a way, I've, I mean, I've seen a lot of waves and a lot of bubbles, and this is like nothing I've ever seen. Yeah. Like when Amazon was losing a billion” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley says OpenAI's burn rate is five times Amazon's or Uber's, unprecedented in venture capital. https://minutesof.com/q/4ce348b3-531e-4309-9f53-b6a1ddf1ec61/ https://minutesof.com/q/4ce348b3-531e-4309-9f53-b6a1ddf1ec61/ “And when we did at Uber, we had the same kind of burn rate, but Open the Eyes got a burn rate that's five times that size.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley says unprecedented capital at every AI project creates uncharted competitive territory. https://minutesof.com/q/cb183734-4890-424e-8f87-6914b43816b0/ https://minutesof.com/q/cb183734-4890-424e-8f87-6914b43816b0/ “now we're in a weird world where the amount of money that gets thrown at every project, I kind of lived through this with Uber Lyft because both companies had billions and billions of dollars” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley says competing in top AI categories now requires willingness to lose a billion dollars per year. https://minutesof.com/q/5d31e85a-0c95-434e-88c5-ad36bc813d20/ https://minutesof.com/q/5d31e85a-0c95-434e-88c5-ad36bc813d20/ “So every one of the most interesting AI categories, you may have to be willing to lose 1,000,000,000 a year just to compete” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley cites UK, China, India, and Brazil all created instant digital payment systems years ago. https://minutesof.com/q/79876f3a-71d7-4fbe-b3ec-756dd00bd2e5/ https://minutesof.com/q/79876f3a-71d7-4fbe-b3ec-756dd00bd2e5/ “The UK created something called Faster Payment seventeen years ago. And China has one and India has one. Brazil created one seven years ago, six years ago called PIX that's wildly successful.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley says with crypto wallets you can send $25,000 in two seconds for two cents. https://minutesof.com/q/e23cca16-1b7e-4bb5-920a-7621c1ca100b/ https://minutesof.com/q/e23cca16-1b7e-4bb5-920a-7621c1ca100b/ “And now if you have a wallet of any kind and I have a wallet of any kind, I can send you, you know, 25,000 US dollars in two seconds, and it'll cost me 2¢ to send it to” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley worked with researcher Joseph Friedman to study academic research on career passion and grit for his bo https://minutesof.com/q/38917be2-e0e1-48f7-bfb3-462f13957271/ https://minutesof.com/q/38917be2-e0e1-48f7-bfb3-462f13957271/ “Malcolm actually, his team introduced me to a researcher named Joseph Friedman, who pushed us to study the academic part. So we started reading all the research.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley's Wharton survey found six in ten people would choose a different career if they could go back. https://minutesof.com/q/4726eef7-a774-4407-bd98-fd8459ca65b3/ https://minutesof.com/q/4726eef7-a774-4407-bd98-fd8459ca65b3/ “It led to us doing this survey with Wharton where we asked people, if you could go back in life, would you choose a different career? And six in 10 people say yes.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley argues the IPO process is broken due to regulatory capture and most people don't understand how it actu https://minutesof.com/q/9a394fb2-90fc-4946-838f-d8f08883cd9f/ https://minutesof.com/q/9a394fb2-90fc-4946-838f-d8f08883cd9f/ “I think the IPO process almost certainly also because of regulatory capture is remarkably broken. I don't actually think the average citizen even knows.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley argues citizens mistakenly believe IPOs work like direct listings with price-based allocation. https://minutesof.com/q/f3fc5ca8-8916-4c4d-ac0a-cb2865cdd700/ https://minutesof.com/q/f3fc5ca8-8916-4c4d-ac0a-cb2865cdd700/ “I think they think a bunch of people put orders in, you sort them based on who's willing to pay the highest price” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley argues IPO bankers handpick both price and allocation, creating expected first-day pops for decades. https://minutesof.com/q/cbe58297-7f58-47c5-991e-1d98a51f86bb/ https://minutesof.com/q/cbe58297-7f58-47c5-991e-1d98a51f86bb/ “So it's a handpicked price and it's hand allocated. And for the past twenty five, thirty years, you have these pops that have become expected,” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley says IPO bankers hand-pick price and allocations, creating expected pops as one-day giveaways to client https://minutesof.com/q/46a04a7a-587a-4f65-a58e-fd2652a0affe/ https://minutesof.com/q/46a04a7a-587a-4f65-a58e-fd2652a0affe/ “And for the past twenty five, thirty years, you have these pops that have become expected, I would say. And it's a one day giveaway to their clients.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley recommends executives develop five peers in similar companies for quarterly knowledge sharing. https://minutesof.com/q/d290b796-13a7-4a86-83fe-095ecc97f748/ https://minutesof.com/q/d290b796-13a7-4a86-83fe-095ecc97f748/ “I've often gone to my founders or CEOs and I say, you should tell every one of your direct reports to develop five peers in nearby companies, not direct competitors, things that look similar, and have them meet with them four times a year and then bring back and report up.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley says he encourages founders to have executives develop five external peers and meet quarterly, but gets https://minutesof.com/q/c3a3ebcc-d267-4154-8be7-466b3576b440/ https://minutesof.com/q/c3a3ebcc-d267-4154-8be7-466b3576b440/ “And I've been very unable to make that programmatic or make that successful and people find it foreign.” — Tetragrammaton with Rick Rubin Thu, 12 Feb 2026 16:34:22 +0000 Gurley says his biggest career mistake was not pursuing Google when Larry and Sergei presented at 25 employees https://minutesof.com/q/add8221b-3250-43ae-a370-e08312af5339/ https://minutesof.com/q/add8221b-3250-43ae-a370-e08312af5339/ “The there's a there's a notion in venture capital about asymmetric risks. So if you if you you know, the biggest mistake of my career is I had Larry and Sergei present to the partnership when there were 25 employees at Google and we failed to chase the deal.” — Yahoo Finance Mon, 26 Jan 2026 13:00:06 +0000 Gurley says missing Google at 25 employees was his biggest career mistake, not failed investments. https://minutesof.com/q/ec2ca988-9456-495b-b912-425f22c920d1/ https://minutesof.com/q/ec2ca988-9456-495b-b912-425f22c920d1/ “I had Larry and Sergei present to the partnership when there were 25 employees at Google and we failed to chase the deal.” — Yahoo Finance Mon, 26 Jan 2026 13:00:06 +0000 Gurley explains asymmetric risk: funding failures lose 1x while missing big wins loses 10,000x your money. https://minutesof.com/q/1a5542d5-f450-4c82-8749-b192e18c43f6/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a5542d5-f450-4c82-8749-b192e18c43f6/ “If you fund something that doesn't work, you lose one times your money. If you miss this big thing, you lose, you know, 10,000 extra money.” — Yahoo Finance Mon, 26 Jan 2026 13:00:06 +0000 Gurley cites AI company jumping from $100K seed valuation to $300M Series A with $10M raised. https://minutesof.com/q/8ab051f4-61d1-4eb1-9a14-e54182681b79/ https://minutesof.com/q/8ab051f4-61d1-4eb1-9a14-e54182681b79/ “I heard just this week about a company that did a seed at a 100 pre and is doing their a for 10,000,000 at 300 pre.” — Yahoo Finance Mon, 26 Jan 2026 13:00:06 +0000 Gurley cites AI company going from $100M seed to $300M Series A valuation, diluting investor ownership. https://minutesof.com/q/d4e0a964-c50f-4470-8402-64275db34ef0/ https://minutesof.com/q/d4e0a964-c50f-4470-8402-64275db34ef0/ “So that venture investor that's doing 10 at 300 pre is getting, you know, you know, a tiny percent of this company relative to what people used to get.” — Yahoo Finance Mon, 26 Jan 2026 13:00:06 +0000 Gurley says AI companies have bigger burn rates than Amazon or any company in venture capital history. https://minutesof.com/q/a4dff475-403f-42f3-9d71-df6f1a93c46f/ https://minutesof.com/q/a4dff475-403f-42f3-9d71-df6f1a93c46f/ “Oh, more than Amazon ever lost. And so the the burn rates are bigger than they've ever been in the history of venture capital. And eventually, they're gonna wanna bring those in.” — Yahoo Finance Mon, 26 Jan 2026 13:00:06 +0000 Gurley predicts AI will shift from innovation to optimization like dot-com era Oracle-to-Linux migration. https://minutesof.com/q/5eb89444-9fb4-41a0-9286-a46c2c7a1102/ https://minutesof.com/q/5eb89444-9fb4-41a0-9286-a46c2c7a1102/ “So there were you went from a period of innovation to a period of optimization where people are much more worried about cost.” — Yahoo Finance Mon, 26 Jan 2026 13:00:06 +0000 Gurley warns that widespread dependence on one player creates correction risk if they default on commitments. https://minutesof.com/q/d6f3de2f-7d6c-4c30-a225-242b012b1403/ https://minutesof.com/q/d6f3de2f-7d6c-4c30-a225-242b012b1403/ “And that is another thing that could lead to a correction if they ever have to start defaulting on some of those commitments.” — Yahoo Finance Mon, 26 Jan 2026 13:00:06 +0000 Gurley notes OpenAI is being funded at $300-500 billion pre-money valuation by proven multi-decade investors. https://minutesof.com/q/7ce74cee-8cdd-4317-ba7e-906edb2dda5a/ https://minutesof.com/q/7ce74cee-8cdd-4317-ba7e-906edb2dda5a/ “They clearly like, you're not funding something at 300,000,000,000 pre, 400, 500,000,000,000 pre if you don't already believe that.” — Yahoo Finance Mon, 26 Jan 2026 13:00:06 +0000 Gurley argues real technology waves necessarily attract speculation and bubble behavior as pairs. https://minutesof.com/q/d3207c47-aae5-4f3e-b3ce-b72c8f5f5808/ https://minutesof.com/q/d3207c47-aae5-4f3e-b3ce-b72c8f5f5808/ “If the wave is real, then you're going to have bubble like behavior. Like they come together as a pair precisely because anytime there's very quick wealth creation, you're going to get a lot of people that want to come try and take advantage of that or participate in it.” — Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 Gurley warns retail investors that 100x AI returns already happened; current odds are very low. https://minutesof.com/q/bd5b05d6-34a6-4b5a-b236-2f88b007c06d/ https://minutesof.com/q/bd5b05d6-34a6-4b5a-b236-2f88b007c06d/ “And that's not to say there won't be an incremental AI investment that makes money, I think there will. But your odds right now of that being the case are really, really low.” — Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 Gurley argues invisible hand capitalism with hyper competition is actively happening in China despite communis https://minutesof.com/q/1948c3cb-c870-4afe-94f8-2523e15bb7e8/ https://minutesof.com/q/1948c3cb-c870-4afe-94f8-2523e15bb7e8/ “So I think the thing that a lot of people in Silicon Valley love about capitalism is this notion of the invisible hand and competition that leads to innovation and best practice, and the winners rise up and they're better for it. That is happening there.” — Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 Gurley states China builds nuclear fission plants at one fourth the price of US construction costs. https://minutesof.com/q/b4b27ee4-b302-4da0-920d-6ff0f1dd72ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/b4b27ee4-b302-4da0-920d-6ff0f1dd72ed/ “So they are building new nuclear fission plants. So fission being old school, not new school, at one fourth the price that we do it here in The US.” — Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 Gurley reports China builds nuclear fission plants at one-fourth the US price; South Korea does too. https://minutesof.com/q/46abef0c-3d45-47a5-bd10-f86486954242/ https://minutesof.com/q/46abef0c-3d45-47a5-bd10-f86486954242/ “So fission being old school, not new school, at one fourth the price that we do it here in The US. So is South Korea, by the way.” — Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 Gurley says Xiaomi uses one-third the employees per car; predicts one-sixth in ten years. https://minutesof.com/q/35d9a346-58f3-49a1-8f13-0afab73e67b6/ https://minutesof.com/q/35d9a346-58f3-49a1-8f13-0afab73e67b6/ “The Xiaomi factory was a third, based on some numbers I was able to acquire, a third the number of employees per car output.” — Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 Gurley predicts reshored manufacturing will bring hundreds of thousands of jobs, not millions, due to automati https://minutesof.com/q/fb9d38d0-66da-4ae9-b3bb-5d1afc8872fe/ https://minutesof.com/q/fb9d38d0-66da-4ae9-b3bb-5d1afc8872fe/ “And so you could calculate the total number of jobs you'd be bringing back if you brought back all this car production and it'd be hundreds of thousands. It's not millions and millions of jobs.” — Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 Gurley quotes Dan Wong saying America is run by lawyers while China is run by engineers. https://minutesof.com/q/ce5b9934-eba8-47b4-8254-05d030cc2236/ https://minutesof.com/q/ce5b9934-eba8-47b4-8254-05d030cc2236/ “I think Dan Wong does a good job of saying that America is run by lawyers the author of of Breakneck. Our country's run by lawyers and theirs is run by engineers.” — Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 Gurley questions whether America benefits from Mag7's trillion-dollar valuations or if they signal market fail https://minutesof.com/q/0c2c511c-7def-42da-b91c-cc0618d3880f/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c2c511c-7def-42da-b91c-cc0618d3880f/ “Hearing that caused me to ask the question, does America really benefit by the fact that the Mag7 have $3,000,000,000,000 market caps?” — Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 Gurley calls claims that China lacks innovation capabilities flat wrong based on direct observation during vis https://minutesof.com/q/0178caa5-3d30-46d4-95fa-151d71666594/ https://minutesof.com/q/0178caa5-3d30-46d4-95fa-151d71666594/ “And that's just flat wrong. Whoever's saying that just hasn't been there. They don't know the facts on the ground.” — Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 Gurley says Chinese entrepreneurs match US quality, citing MEMS LiDAR at $130 per car versus thousands. https://minutesof.com/q/19f92f69-fdeb-4b0f-8094-3ddf216ba811/ https://minutesof.com/q/19f92f69-fdeb-4b0f-8094-3ddf216ba811/ “These entrepreneurs are every bit as good as the entrepreneurs they are here. There are examples like in LiDAR, they built a MEMS LiDAR product that's like $130 a car.” — Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 Gurley notes China has ten open source AI models in hyper competition versus US proprietary approach. https://minutesof.com/q/144ed357-e1fd-4b28-8dee-60a604810677/ https://minutesof.com/q/144ed357-e1fd-4b28-8dee-60a604810677/ “Wild. And by the way, I mean, not to divert too much back, but right now China has 10 open source AI models.” — Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 Gurley argues IPO pricing is fundamentally broken because bankers pick price and allocation instead of markets https://minutesof.com/q/9b75fa0d-8ad6-42ba-a235-20a9aafeaf1b/ https://minutesof.com/q/9b75fa0d-8ad6-42ba-a235-20a9aafeaf1b/ “The way that an IPO's price is so god awful stupid. They pick who gets the stock and they pick the price.” — Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 Gurley argues IPO pricing should match supply and demand anonymously like bonds, not banker allocation and pri https://minutesof.com/q/435fcf1d-9e85-4c0e-80ef-c12c60eb6a14/ https://minutesof.com/q/435fcf1d-9e85-4c0e-80ef-c12c60eb6a14/ “And I've said it over and over again, but a freshman comp size student and a freshman finance student, if you told them to design the IPO, they would just match supply and demand anonymously.” — Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 Gurley fed AI descriptions of abnormal AI transactions and it flagged patterns similar to Enron and WorldCom. https://minutesof.com/q/89ba8d79-ecf1-4045-a23a-2dcb22c8653a/ https://minutesof.com/q/89ba8d79-ecf1-4045-a23a-2dcb22c8653a/ “And I just described those things to CHIGBT and ask it for its analysis both as an accountant and as a financial investor.” — Bg2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:56:17 +0000 Gurley says boards and CFOs feel competitive pressure to engage in questionable AI transactions. https://minutesof.com/q/2566df32-2ab3-41ff-a71b-80191739e049/ https://minutesof.com/q/2566df32-2ab3-41ff-a71b-80191739e049/ “So I think there are many boards and many CFOs who have been put in a position where they say, well, if we don't do it, everyone else is doing it, you might fall behind.” — Bg2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:56:17 +0000 Gurley criticizes Microsoft-OpenAI deal where credits become revenue without cash changing hands. https://minutesof.com/q/426381f9-81e6-4eb1-9572-baa0cd988bf7/ https://minutesof.com/q/426381f9-81e6-4eb1-9572-baa0cd988bf7/ “That's a rev that's a cashless transaction. Like, there's no cash, but it becomes an income statement revenue item for Microsoft.” — Bg2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:56:17 +0000 Gurley argues Microsoft's in-kind OpenAI investment creates cashless revenue on income statements, which is no https://minutesof.com/q/ef450a94-7e23-421f-a308-0ccb8d1c788f/ https://minutesof.com/q/ef450a94-7e23-421f-a308-0ccb8d1c788f/ “That's a rev that's a cashless transaction. Like, there's no cash, but it becomes an income statement revenue item for Microsoft. And I don't think that's ideal from an economic standpoint.” — Bg2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:56:17 +0000 Gurley identifies Meta agreeing to cover debt failure without owning the debt as classic off-balance-sheet fin https://minutesof.com/q/cd293f6c-b4a7-4beb-898b-e518bc330e72/ https://minutesof.com/q/cd293f6c-b4a7-4beb-898b-e518bc330e72/ “Meta agreed to pay for the failure of debt on a facility where they don't own the debt. You know? And to me, that's classic off balance sheet financing.” — Bg2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:56:17 +0000 Gurley flags NVIDIA's promise to buy unsold CoreWeave capacity as highly unusual arrangement. https://minutesof.com/q/f01ef787-0218-496c-9b10-9c8217b3118d/ https://minutesof.com/q/f01ef787-0218-496c-9b10-9c8217b3118d/ “One of the more peculiar of all the deals is, and this was disclosed in a CoreWeave filing, was NVIDIA has promised to buy any of CoreWeave's service availability that they can't sell to anyone else.” — Bg2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:56:17 +0000 Gurley flags NVIDIA's unusual promise to buy unsold CoreWeave capacity as revealed in regulatory filings. https://minutesof.com/q/b4be77a2-c887-404a-a346-9a375dad5b9f/ https://minutesof.com/q/b4be77a2-c887-404a-a346-9a375dad5b9f/ “One of the more peculiar of all the deals is, and this was disclosed in a CoreWeave filing, was NVIDIA has promised to buy any of CoreWeave's service availability that they can't sell to anyone else. That is very unusual. That's not the same as making an investment.” — Bg2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:56:17 +0000 Gurley says NVIDIA promised to buy any unsold CoreWeave service availability, disclosed in CoreWeave filing, c https://minutesof.com/q/ca322c81-0e52-4f74-8498-094a688c0276/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca322c81-0e52-4f74-8498-094a688c0276/ “That is very unusual. That's not the same as making an investment. That could easily help CoreWeave with their debtors and and getting more debt financing.” — Bg2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:56:17 +0000 Gurley contrasts US payment friction with instant settlement systems in Brazil, UK, China, and India. https://minutesof.com/q/a82a4b4e-0901-42cc-a88d-691b6c510912/ https://minutesof.com/q/a82a4b4e-0901-42cc-a88d-691b6c510912/ “Your ACH takes three days to settle. Your wire costs $25 for domestic, $50 for international, and you have to fill out pages and pages exactly.” — Bg2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:56:17 +0000 Gurley highlights Coinbase offering 4% daily interest on any stablecoin balance without deposit requirements. https://minutesof.com/q/668a2038-5c1d-4b7e-a5d7-9c23c207d56f/ https://minutesof.com/q/668a2038-5c1d-4b7e-a5d7-9c23c207d56f/ “Here, whether it's $10 or or a million bucks, you know, you put it in stable coin with Coinbase and you start earning 4% daily.” — Bg2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:56:17 +0000 Gurley criticizes Trump administration investigating Brazil's PIX for undercutting Visa and Apple. https://minutesof.com/q/c86e5053-da08-4651-9558-767994a45a39/ https://minutesof.com/q/c86e5053-da08-4651-9558-767994a45a39/ “As part of its aggressive economic and political campaign against Brazil is investigating PICS, accusing the payment system of unfairly utter undercutting US financial and technology companies like Visa and Apple.” — Bg2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:56:17 +0000 I mean, that's the most absurd thing I've ever heard. Undercutting Visa? Like, do do they realize they have Vi https://minutesof.com/q/daa01882-612d-4c63-9900-20b594d64542/ https://minutesof.com/q/daa01882-612d-4c63-9900-20b594d64542/ “I mean, that's the most absurd thing I've ever heard. Undercutting Visa? Like, do do they realize they have Visa and Mastercard have, like, the top two operating incomes in the history of American business?” — Bg2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:56:17 +0000 Gurley's research found 70% would restart careers differently; Wharton replication confirmed six in ten would. https://minutesof.com/q/ab88cd5c-5353-43fa-bb5f-7986b44caa00/ https://minutesof.com/q/ab88cd5c-5353-43fa-bb5f-7986b44caa00/ “We did this survey and asked people if you could start your career over again, would you do things differently? And in that survey, 70% of people said yes.” — Bg2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:56:17 +0000 Gurley reveals NVIDIA promised to buy any CoreWeave service availability they cannot sell to others. https://minutesof.com/q/ef7b15a8-cd98-4f36-a05b-c737f3951a71/ https://minutesof.com/q/ef7b15a8-cd98-4f36-a05b-c737f3951a71/ “One of the more peculiar of all the deals is, and this was disclosed in a CoreWeave filing, was NVIDIA has promised to buy any of CoreWeave's service availability that they can't sell to anyone else. That is very unusual. That's not the same as making an investment.” — BG2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:40:02 +0000 Gurley warns NVIDIA backstop obscures real demand signals for CoreWeave from investors. https://minutesof.com/q/cf90251e-a478-4fa1-adf6-3445694c5eac/ https://minutesof.com/q/cf90251e-a478-4fa1-adf6-3445694c5eac/ “That could easily help CoreWeave with their debtors and and getting more debt financing. But it also means as a investor, we we don't know what's going on with real demand for CoreWeave because we probably won't be told if they start moving into the world where they're offloading to NVIDIA or not.” — BG2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:40:02 +0000 Gurley notes Coinbase offers 4% daily interest on stablecoin balances without deposit requirements. https://minutesof.com/q/b6e1150f-05ee-4c6e-9c31-ad78da1dee4d/ https://minutesof.com/q/b6e1150f-05ee-4c6e-9c31-ad78da1dee4d/ “Here, whether it's $10 or or a million bucks, you know, you put it in stable coin with Coinbase and you start earning 4% daily.” — BG2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:40:02 +0000 Gurley calls investigation of Brazil's PIX for undercutting Visa absurd given Visa and Mastercard's record ope https://minutesof.com/q/f7094366-3b1f-4c0d-b452-14f8bf1622ec/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7094366-3b1f-4c0d-b452-14f8bf1622ec/ “I mean, that's the most absurd thing I've ever heard. Undercutting Visa? Like, do do they realize they have Visa and Mastercard have, like, the top two operating incomes in the history of American business?” — BG2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:40:02 +0000 Gurley cites surveys showing 70% then 60% would restart careers differently if possible. https://minutesof.com/q/12ba53b7-f4b2-4082-a376-c9778c8c0aa9/ https://minutesof.com/q/12ba53b7-f4b2-4082-a376-c9778c8c0aa9/ “We did this survey and asked people if you could start your career over again, would you do things differently? And in that survey, 70% of people said yes.” — BG2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:40:02 +0000 Gurley reports Chinese VCs study the West exhaustively while the West does not reciprocate on China. https://minutesof.com/q/34b87ef9-35f3-4d4b-a907-6e40b949b559/ https://minutesof.com/q/34b87ef9-35f3-4d4b-a907-6e40b949b559/ “They read everything they possibly can. They study any speech. They look at the financials. And he said, the West doesn't do that of China.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:51:07 +0000 Gurley says Chinese founders and VCs study the West at a nauseating level while the West does not study China. https://minutesof.com/q/e2990768-e244-4b36-af03-f1f381ba817b/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2990768-e244-4b36-af03-f1f381ba817b/ “over lunch, this individual told me, you know, every founder and every VC in China studies the West at a nauseating level.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:51:07 +0000 Gurley reports Chinese founders and VCs study the West exhaustively while the West does not reciprocate for Ch https://minutesof.com/q/cc0ddae4-34ee-4daa-974a-718ec97a03fb/ https://minutesof.com/q/cc0ddae4-34ee-4daa-974a-718ec97a03fb/ “They read everything they possibly can. They study any speech. They look at the financials. And he said, the West doesn't do that of China.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:51:07 +0000 Gurley reports Xiaomi factory makes one thousand cars daily with two thousand employees versus six in US. https://minutesof.com/q/517d4f44-e4e5-42bd-92a0-90a33cd2c473/ https://minutesof.com/q/517d4f44-e4e5-42bd-92a0-90a33cd2c473/ “The factory makes a thousand cars a day with 2,000 employees. It was highly automated, like really highly automated.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:51:07 +0000 Gurley reports Xiaomi factory produces one car per day per two employees versus six in the US. https://minutesof.com/q/c179eb55-6e01-44cd-b4b1-1354df26c5b9/ https://minutesof.com/q/c179eb55-6e01-44cd-b4b1-1354df26c5b9/ “Let's say they took it to a thousand employees for a thousand cars. That'd be employed per car per day. That number is like at six in The US.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:51:07 +0000 Gurley argues bringing manufacturing jobs back may be futile because automation will eliminate them anyway. https://minutesof.com/q/94a07fe8-e85a-4ee8-aa93-298afc0bb19d/ https://minutesof.com/q/94a07fe8-e85a-4ee8-aa93-298afc0bb19d/ “Like, if you wanna bring the jobs back there by the time you get the jobs back, there may not be any jobs. Like like at one Because of automation.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:51:07 +0000 Gurley predicts global car manufacturing employment could drop to 400 total jobs due to automation. https://minutesof.com/q/cd3be90b-3237-4bf1-849c-7bc5d071aca3/ https://minutesof.com/q/cd3be90b-3237-4bf1-849c-7bc5d071aca3/ “Like like at one Because of automation. The entire global, you know, potential for car manufacturing in five or ten years from now could be like 400 total.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:51:07 +0000 Gurley reports Ford CEO Farley shipped a Xiaomi car to Chicago and made extreme statements after driving it. https://minutesof.com/q/d30a2244-15b1-4298-90b9-89c679a84bf2/ https://minutesof.com/q/d30a2244-15b1-4298-90b9-89c679a84bf2/ “And he insisted they ship him one back to Chicago, and he's been driving it around. And he's made some pretty extreme statements after having experienced Xiaomi.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:51:07 +0000 Gurley quotes Ford CEO Farley saying Chinese vehicle quality is far superior and Ford's future depends on comp https://minutesof.com/q/c372bdd3-3ac1-4d1c-b117-d9c68e1c2f22/ https://minutesof.com/q/c372bdd3-3ac1-4d1c-b117-d9c68e1c2f22/ “And he says even beyond that, their cost, their quality of vehicles is far superior to what I see in the West.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:51:07 +0000 Gurley quotes Ford CEO saying Chinese vehicle cost and quality are far superior to the West. https://minutesof.com/q/ac5e3988-2b7f-4115-afae-05500abbe53e/ https://minutesof.com/q/ac5e3988-2b7f-4115-afae-05500abbe53e/ “And he says even beyond that, their cost, their quality of vehicles is far superior to what I see in the West. We are in a global competition with China, and it's not just EVs.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:51:07 +0000 Gurley reports BYD executive denying government subsidies and challenging critics to find evidence in public f https://minutesof.com/q/2a384c15-af86-4bfe-bf47-54d5f6c6a56a/ https://minutesof.com/q/2a384c15-af86-4bfe-bf47-54d5f6c6a56a/ “I brought up the subsidization with Stella Lee at BYD, and she said she said, if I'm getting all this government subsidy money, can you please find it and show it to me?” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:51:07 +0000 Gurley reports BYD executive challenged him to find government subsidies in their public company financials. https://minutesof.com/q/76e2131a-35e6-42a3-8bad-00e944e23e79/ https://minutesof.com/q/76e2131a-35e6-42a3-8bad-00e944e23e79/ “We're we're a public company. Come show me the money I'm getting from the government. She's like, say, I'm getting nothing.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:51:07 +0000 Gurley finds only four of twenty-four CCP select committee members have visited China within seven years. https://minutesof.com/q/c4f1033c-3390-4b52-9c3b-718141c5a9f3/ https://minutesof.com/q/c4f1033c-3390-4b52-9c3b-718141c5a9f3/ “I did a deep dive on on your favorite product chat, GBT, $300 version deep research, and on the 24 members of the select committee for the CCP.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:51:07 +0000 Gurley says research shows all but four members of the CCP select committee have never been to China. https://minutesof.com/q/04f75866-6e10-437e-9d76-8638aae1d999/ https://minutesof.com/q/04f75866-6e10-437e-9d76-8638aae1d999/ “And I think all but four have never been to China. Right. And the ones that went, it was seven years ago.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:51:07 +0000 Gurley reports Xiaomi factory produces thousand cars daily with 2,000 employees versus six per car in US. https://minutesof.com/q/cea300ed-652f-4f9d-8396-b5ddd908a188/ https://minutesof.com/q/cea300ed-652f-4f9d-8396-b5ddd908a188/ “The factory makes a thousand cars a day with 2,000 employees. It was highly automated, like really highly automated.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:39:23 +0000 Gurley warns bringing manufacturing jobs back may be futile as automation eliminates those positions. https://minutesof.com/q/b6e4a83f-9ef0-4590-891e-38a4f7bab26f/ https://minutesof.com/q/b6e4a83f-9ef0-4590-891e-38a4f7bab26f/ “Like, if you wanna bring the jobs back there by the time you get the jobs back, there may not be any jobs. Like like, at one Because of automation.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:39:23 +0000 Gurley reports BYD executive challenges claims of Chinese subsidies, says they receive nothing as public compa https://minutesof.com/q/52f79c93-bc83-4725-9cdb-1129b155e94f/ https://minutesof.com/q/52f79c93-bc83-4725-9cdb-1129b155e94f/ “We're we're a public company. Come show me the money I'm getting from the government. She's like, say, I'm getting nothing.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:39:23 +0000 Gurley finds only four of 24 members on China committee have visited China, last time seven years ago. https://minutesof.com/q/c96a458e-b819-49cb-b6fb-bb38b6bf952f/ https://minutesof.com/q/c96a458e-b819-49cb-b6fb-bb38b6bf952f/ “And I think all but four have never been to China. Right. And the ones that went, it was seven years ago.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:39:23 +0000 Gurley argues seven to eight deep-pocketed Chinese open-source models can distill each other to accelerate imp https://minutesof.com/q/5e755aba-f687-4536-ad57-34a4a9dc2d51/ https://minutesof.com/q/5e755aba-f687-4536-ad57-34a4a9dc2d51/ “I think there may be seven or eight dig pocketed players with open models in China, they all learn from each other extremely fast.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:11:15 +0000 Gurley says Mistral should be distilling Chinese models right now if they want to compete. https://minutesof.com/q/a4421198-8184-45f7-9a12-37a84f641769/ https://minutesof.com/q/a4421198-8184-45f7-9a12-37a84f641769/ “I do expect to see that. And if I'm the Mistral team, if you're not distilling on these Chinese models, I don't know what you're doing right now.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:11:15 +0000 Gurley notes Google cannot match OpenAI's competitive advantage of losing seven billion dollars annually. https://minutesof.com/q/e9c81378-12b4-44eb-9df8-06a50109f89c/ https://minutesof.com/q/e9c81378-12b4-44eb-9df8-06a50109f89c/ “I still think it's particularly interesting that Google has to compete with OpenAI because OpenAI is gonna lose 7,000,000,000 this year and Google won't. Like they would never allow themselves to do that.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:11:15 +0000 Gurley reports rumors that some best-known AI brands have negative gross margins from pricing below cost. https://minutesof.com/q/d36dd034-e36f-4370-9235-6b98149f4ca5/ https://minutesof.com/q/d36dd034-e36f-4370-9235-6b98149f4ca5/ “There's rumors of even some of the best known brands in AI having negative gross margin.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:11:15 +0000 Gurley believes OpenAI's long-term success depends more on switching costs than staying at model frontier. https://minutesof.com/q/73d7db06-dce9-4935-86ad-f9f531266347/ https://minutesof.com/q/73d7db06-dce9-4935-86ad-f9f531266347/ “I continue to believe that OpenAI's most likely chance to long term success comes from switching cost and lock in more than it will come from staying on the edge of the of the model race? Because I think” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:11:15 +0000 Gurley explains ChatGPT usage expands as people discover it can replace multi-step workflows like search-extra https://minutesof.com/q/f67292f9-906f-422b-91fe-31581adabfab/ https://minutesof.com/q/f67292f9-906f-422b-91fe-31581adabfab/ “one of the reasons I think it expands is people come to understand all the things it can do and all the kinds of prompts, you know, another one is like, like I used to do a Google search, go to a webpage, find a number, and then put that into a formula and multiply it on a calculator.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 21 Jun 2025 15:51:43 +0000 Gurley argues Amazon's lower GPU demand stems from lacking a major consumer AI application unlike Microsoft an https://minutesof.com/q/899389ab-537c-4e0e-abdb-7bac077b2ac1/ https://minutesof.com/q/899389ab-537c-4e0e-abdb-7bac077b2ac1/ “Microsoft derivatively is supporting ChatGPT as is Oracle and CoreWeave on this slide. Amazon doesn't really have a big consumer application, right?” — BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 Gurley describes Meta's Scale AI acquisition structure: 49% stake for $15B at $30B valuation to avoid regulato https://minutesof.com/q/0915bf55-0e5e-4785-9ef6-bc14134d0999/ https://minutesof.com/q/0915bf55-0e5e-4785-9ef6-bc14134d0999/ “Meta has done this interesting structured deal, they're buying 49% of the company, they're paying a $30,000,000,000 valuation so they're paying effectively 15,000,000,000, they're avoiding regulatory scrutiny, the CEO of scale is going to help lead efforts at Meta.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 Gurley argues OpenAI must go public to democratize access to trillion-dollar company returns beyond private ma https://minutesof.com/q/05c37d37-9d45-4449-8606-7b6a50208eec/ https://minutesof.com/q/05c37d37-9d45-4449-8606-7b6a50208eec/ “It needs to be a public company. The idea that we're going to have trillion dollar companies and the only people who get to participate are the people sitting around this table, right?” — BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 Gurley contrasts Google's 187,000 employees with OpenAI's 2,700, noting OpenAI plans to stay under 20,000 usin https://minutesof.com/q/5fa65c40-4a35-4267-9cf0-24691152754e/ https://minutesof.com/q/5fa65c40-4a35-4267-9cf0-24691152754e/ “Google has 187,000 employees, OpenAI 2,700. We're not going to be a company of 20,000 employees. He didn't say we're not going be a company of 187,000 employees, Right?” — BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 Gurley states there are approximately a thousand private companies valued over a billion dollars pre-LLM. https://minutesof.com/q/7c0a8737-7bf4-4c82-aa47-ba37240db72e/ https://minutesof.com/q/7c0a8737-7bf4-4c82-aa47-ba37240db72e/ “There's somewhere around a thousand. So these are a thousand private companies that have raised money over a billion dollars.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley estimates roughly a thousand private companies have raised over a billion dollars pre-LLM era. https://minutesof.com/q/1e85c64f-5ef4-439f-b274-18b9c4f13a82/ https://minutesof.com/q/1e85c64f-5ef4-439f-b274-18b9c4f13a82/ “So these are a thousand private companies that have raised money over a billion dollars. And Chad GBD told me it was $12.50. NBCA says 900.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley identifies approximately 1,000 private companies valued over $1 billion pre-LLM era. https://minutesof.com/q/e1996f61-7794-4698-9ecb-e5cc2c369d40/ https://minutesof.com/q/e1996f61-7794-4698-9ecb-e5cc2c369d40/ “So these are a thousand private companies that have raised money over a billion dollars. And Chad GBD told me it was $12.50. NBCA says 900. Let's just say it's near a thousand.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley estimates zombie unicorns have collectively raised $300 billion in capital. https://minutesof.com/q/03d9400e-4b6c-4621-8ae6-5af743b2d3fa/ https://minutesof.com/q/03d9400e-4b6c-4621-8ae6-5af743b2d3fa/ “Yeah. Seems like they've raised somewhere between 2 and 300,000,000 each. And so you roll all that up, it's 300,000,000,000.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues no one in the private market system has incentive to accurately mark valuations to LPs. https://minutesof.com/q/782d9571-591b-41a4-965c-b7c40c476f53/ https://minutesof.com/q/782d9571-591b-41a4-965c-b7c40c476f53/ “No one has an incentive to get the marks right. For those that don't know this world, private investing, both on the PE side and the VC side is this weird world where the GPs, the people responsible for the investments, report the price to the LPs.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley explains liquidation preference mechanics where aggregate capital raised can claim majority of M&A proc https://minutesof.com/q/753dda69-e3be-467a-bb08-d4a867713b32/ https://minutesof.com/q/753dda69-e3be-467a-bb08-d4a867713b32/ “And in M and A outcomes, the investor can choose to take the LIC preference and not convert to common so they can get their money back.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley notes the unprecedented situation where Nasdaq rose 30% in 2024 yet the IPO window remained closed. https://minutesof.com/q/fdddccba-e097-4aff-ba4f-835e995a1d5a/ https://minutesof.com/q/fdddccba-e097-4aff-ba4f-835e995a1d5a/ “If you look at last year, 2024, the Nasdaq was up 30% and the window was closed. That seems to be the general belief of everyone out there.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues 2024's 30% Nasdaq gain with closed IPO window defies historical correlation, pointing to bank-fo https://minutesof.com/q/222b59f6-f047-4def-9148-3487a08d0234/ https://minutesof.com/q/222b59f6-f047-4def-9148-3487a08d0234/ “I believe a part of it I've been very passionate about is the IPO discount that the banks force upon the market, especially the well known high branded ones.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues the belief that AI is the biggest platform shift ever is driving current market behavior. https://minutesof.com/q/9f1cae2d-8ecf-49d8-a29c-0617fe1a5fbf/ https://minutesof.com/q/9f1cae2d-8ecf-49d8-a29c-0617fe1a5fbf/ “I think post LLM, the world believes, and I think this is my fifth point or something, but the world believes AI is the biggest platform shift in anyone's lifetime.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues Yale has had more impact on endowment management strategy than any other institution. https://minutesof.com/q/051feb0b-a218-4bda-898f-cff90c34e9f8/ https://minutesof.com/q/051feb0b-a218-4bda-898f-cff90c34e9f8/ “I would argue no single institution's had a bigger impact on the strategy of endowment management than Yale.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley notes Yale model achieved 13% returns over 35 years by overweighting illiquid assets. https://minutesof.com/q/e380ce5e-99d8-4e6d-b485-c08d3f7fd938/ https://minutesof.com/q/e380ce5e-99d8-4e6d-b485-c08d3f7fd938/ “Yale, I think they say had a 13% compounding return over thirty five years under David Swenson. He is known for the Yale model.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley questions if Yale model works when universally adopted, notes Yale itself selling $6B. https://minutesof.com/q/e64f76a4-2e08-434f-973a-d7ac71178786/ https://minutesof.com/q/e64f76a4-2e08-434f-973a-d7ac71178786/ “What if everyone goes to 50% illiquid? Will it still work? I think that's a provocative question. But I think that's what happened for sure.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley cites research showing IPO underpricing plus fees creates 33% cost of capital. https://minutesof.com/q/e3a13ed2-090a-4a54-898c-8085c3384944/ https://minutesof.com/q/e3a13ed2-090a-4a54-898c-8085c3384944/ “I had my friend Jay Ritter rerun the data. Is there up 25, 26% underpricing? You add in the 7% fee and you're like a 33% cost of capital.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley cites data showing IPO underpricing plus fees creates a 33% cost of capital for going public. https://minutesof.com/q/5ab8ce92-74cf-4b5c-bfee-66913e77d5c0/ https://minutesof.com/q/5ab8ce92-74cf-4b5c-bfee-66913e77d5c0/ “Jay Ritter rerun the data. Is there up 25, 26% underpricing? You add in the 7% fee and you're like a 33% cost of capital.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues excessive capital availability forces all-or-nothing strategies, with AI companies burning $100- https://minutesof.com/q/ae267b39-192b-48a9-bf76-de676192f9b4/ https://minutesof.com/q/ae267b39-192b-48a9-bf76-de676192f9b4/ “Traditional company building isn't spend a 100 or 150,000,000 a year in cash burn, but all the big AI companies are doing that, maybe more.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley notes OpenAI will burn $7 billion annually, calling it radically different from traditional venture. https://minutesof.com/q/bea14b6b-bc50-449c-b8eb-9e0c33ee7b0c/ https://minutesof.com/q/bea14b6b-bc50-449c-b8eb-9e0c33ee7b0c/ “I think OpenAI said they're gonna be 7,000,000,000 in a year. That's not your grandfather's startup business or your grandfather's venture capital. That's a radically different world.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley calculates five-year delay from year ten to fifteen requires $160 instead of $100 just from compounding https://minutesof.com/q/b9b79df1-97cd-49ac-947b-0af62ed8c891/ https://minutesof.com/q/b9b79df1-97cd-49ac-947b-0af62ed8c891/ “Let's say you were expecting to get a $100 back from investment in year ten and you wanna delay it to year fifteen.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley calculates that delaying exits from year ten to fifteen requires 2.5x higher returns to meet expectatio https://minutesof.com/q/e29dbda1-8142-4974-8ce0-af18c18eae60/ https://minutesof.com/q/e29dbda1-8142-4974-8ce0-af18c18eae60/ “If you just take that 10% compounding, it now needs to be worth a $160 in year fifteen.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley calculates that delaying exits five years requires 2.5x higher returns due to compounding and dilution. https://minutesof.com/q/9ad3b046-f346-4b29-bf9d-0d59be68614b/ https://minutesof.com/q/9ad3b046-f346-4b29-bf9d-0d59be68614b/ “If you make the argument that these people invested in venture to get a big return, then your cost of capital is not five.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley calculates five-year delay requires $160 return versus $100 due to 15% cost plus 5% dilution. https://minutesof.com/q/ab0dfbf1-8f5c-4f8e-8ca6-ab85fe9cb754/ https://minutesof.com/q/ab0dfbf1-8f5c-4f8e-8ca6-ab85fe9cb754/ “That's the risk free rate. It's 15. And then it's 20% a year. 15 plus the five from the equity dilution.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 He said, the head of the world's largest sovereign wealth fund said the clock is ticking for private equity an https://minutesof.com/q/ee43f8e6-cce8-458a-80a8-3c8ae51a57e9/ https://minutesof.com/q/ee43f8e6-cce8-458a-80a8-3c8ae51a57e9/ “He said, the head of the world's largest sovereign wealth fund said the clock is ticking for private equity and join the chorus of investors who've grown worried about the industry's valuation practices.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley notes DeepSeek triggered Alibaba and Xiaomi releasing open source models, with Baidu announcing June op https://minutesof.com/q/68a7fb3a-1d0a-4785-be79-73c6a4c97f2c/ https://minutesof.com/q/68a7fb3a-1d0a-4785-be79-73c6a4c97f2c/ “What happened in China, however, is Alibaba made Twin open source. Xiaomi has a model out now.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley predicts four well-funded open-source Chinese AI models could create massive optionality versus US prop https://minutesof.com/q/6df33c77-f744-49e4-a3c7-6dc7fbea4e25/ https://minutesof.com/q/6df33c77-f744-49e4-a3c7-6dc7fbea4e25/ “And Robin Li of Baidu had his model proprietary and he said in June, it's going to be open source.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley predicts four deep-pocketed Chinese open-source AI models will create massive experimentation advantage https://minutesof.com/q/e804c4a9-ca71-4f7a-b17b-3186f1b734e9/ https://minutesof.com/q/e804c4a9-ca71-4f7a-b17b-3186f1b734e9/ “And so that level of competition, if it leads to four deep pocketed all open products is gonna be ultra powerful.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley says China ensures 500 to 1000 competitors in target industries, letting markets select winners rather https://minutesof.com/q/3282dfbc-a62e-4b87-ad71-76067163ee7e/ https://minutesof.com/q/3282dfbc-a62e-4b87-ad71-76067163ee7e/ “in these industries where they wanna succeed, they actually make sure that there are 500 competitors or a thousand competitors. And then they let the market whittle down to what the best one is.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 05 Jun 2025 23:20:47 +0000 Gurley notes Chinese solid-state LiDAR costs $130 per car versus Waymo's $5,000, a result of competitive optio https://minutesof.com/q/035c913e-1b4a-4fee-b520-d37ee018abac/ https://minutesof.com/q/035c913e-1b4a-4fee-b520-d37ee018abac/ “And it's actually in China right now is, I think being priced at like $130 a car, this solid state MEMS LiDAR, whereas the Waymo LiDAR is like $5,000 a car.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 05 Jun 2025 23:20:47 +0000 Gurley contrasts China's 500 EV startups with only four legitimate ones in the United States. https://minutesof.com/q/8964cdaf-aa45-4082-b50b-342cd85bfc85/ https://minutesof.com/q/8964cdaf-aa45-4082-b50b-342cd85bfc85/ “in EVs where there were over 500 EV startups, 500 in The US. What has there been? Four legitimate ones?” — BG2 Pod Thu, 05 Jun 2025 23:20:47 +0000 Gurley argues Chinese government may not prioritize market cap as a win, citing BYD's recent 30% price cut. https://minutesof.com/q/5e922f40-7f20-41cb-b225-c25237e09d96/ https://minutesof.com/q/5e922f40-7f20-41cb-b225-c25237e09d96/ “the Chinese government may not consider that part of the objective function of what a win is. And in the past three weeks, we saw BYD take prices down 30%.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 05 Jun 2025 23:20:47 +0000 Gurley notes 50% of AI researchers are Chinese-origin and China now leads in AI patents, questioning immigrati https://minutesof.com/q/551539a9-4696-47ff-b640-c9235c059c6f/ https://minutesof.com/q/551539a9-4696-47ff-b640-c9235c059c6f/ “some people say 50% of AI researchers are of Chinese origin. And I believe now the patent count in AI coming out of China is larger than The US.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 05 Jun 2025 23:20:47 +0000 Gurley warns highest-profile companies face greatest risk from activist Delaware judges, not smaller market ca https://minutesof.com/q/f01bd721-46a0-47c8-8185-fd2f2e5689b3/ https://minutesof.com/q/f01bd721-46a0-47c8-8185-fd2f2e5689b3/ “I think it's actually the highest profile companies that are at risk because they're the ones that, you know, an activist judge is gonna wanna make a a exception out of.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 05 Jun 2025 23:20:47 +0000 Gurley notes ISS and Glass Lewis are now over 80% owned outside the United States. https://minutesof.com/q/2d96df4e-cd56-41dd-8a7b-5e18fa7beaa1/ https://minutesof.com/q/2d96df4e-cd56-41dd-8a7b-5e18fa7beaa1/ “The senator that you're talking about said on on on when he was giving this talk that that these two companies are now both over 80% owned outside The US.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 05 Jun 2025 23:20:47 +0000 Bingo. And I think had we continued on that path or if we go back towards that path, because I don't think thi https://minutesof.com/q/ffefa2e3-ee50-46c3-ad6e-11517efad566/ https://minutesof.com/q/ffefa2e3-ee50-46c3-ad6e-11517efad566/ “Bingo. And I think had we continued on that path or if we go back towards that path, because I don't think this is over.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 May 2025 16:23:05 +0000 Gurley claims many VCs have become China hawks because they need that stance to justify their military-tech in https://minutesof.com/q/3936ac29-a5c2-46da-a94a-7ed1ed0b2fbd/ https://minutesof.com/q/3936ac29-a5c2-46da-a94a-7ed1ed0b2fbd/ “And I will tell you after spending twenty five years in venture capital, there's just this instinctive thing.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 May 2025 16:23:05 +0000 Gurley cites research showing Delaware awards attorney fee multiples 23x to 57x more frequently than federal c https://minutesof.com/q/ad883e0e-eb84-4197-b58a-e19cff0ac5c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/ad883e0e-eb84-4197-b58a-e19cff0ac5c6/ “in Delaware, seven times or higher is 23 times more likely than in a federal court. And 10 times or higher is 57 times or higher than in a federal court.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 May 2025 16:23:05 +0000 Gurley reveals 55% of high-multiplier Delaware cases are assigned to just two judges including the chancellor https://minutesof.com/q/c0c62f7e-1639-49eb-a75a-2ae218af1dcd/ https://minutesof.com/q/c0c62f7e-1639-49eb-a75a-2ae218af1dcd/ “It turns out that in the 20 cases where you have this this super high multiplier, 55% of the cases are just two of the judges.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 May 2025 16:23:05 +0000 Gurley notes China now has four deep-pocketed open source AI models including Baidu's upcoming release, creati https://minutesof.com/q/82785e3f-5876-4e15-8fb0-ddafa5ff5e7f/ https://minutesof.com/q/82785e3f-5876-4e15-8fb0-ddafa5ff5e7f/ “this will be the fourth deep pocket funded model in China that are all open source. And when you consider I mean, this is a competitive dynamic, right, that leads to that.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 May 2025 16:23:05 +0000 Gurley clarifies Manus operates exclusively on US models, has no foundational model, and never used Chinese mo https://minutesof.com/q/fd5410f3-d8f3-4e95-8c4a-68082adc8050/ https://minutesof.com/q/fd5410f3-d8f3-4e95-8c4a-68082adc8050/ “first of all, they've only operated on US models. They're a wrapper company. They don't have a foundational model and and they've only operated on top of US models.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 May 2025 16:23:05 +0000 Gurley explains DeepSeek innovated by separating parameters to work with smaller counts faster than competitor https://minutesof.com/q/dd419e62-f500-4370-8d57-c84a06675948/ https://minutesof.com/q/dd419e62-f500-4370-8d57-c84a06675948/ “They were able to do that because they figured out a way to separate the parameters and work on things with smaller parameter counts faster, which no one else had done before.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 05 Feb 2025 23:13:28 +0000 Gurley reports DeepSeek pricing is one twentieth of OpenAI on comparable API models. https://minutesof.com/q/f2fcae4d-e3e9-474b-9572-95f3a2e55fad/ https://minutesof.com/q/f2fcae4d-e3e9-474b-9572-95f3a2e55fad/ “if you look at the models that are apples to apples on the API right now, that that DeepSeek's pricing about one twentieth of OpenAI.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 05 Feb 2025 23:13:28 +0000 Gurley reports 1,300 variants of DeepSeek R1 appeared on Hugging Face within days of release. https://minutesof.com/q/2fad991a-2404-440c-9dd6-13bf493b7e2b/ https://minutesof.com/q/2fad991a-2404-440c-9dd6-13bf493b7e2b/ “forty eight hours after r one was posted, they had 500 variants on Hugging Face. And today I pinged them this morning before we started, they're up to 1,300.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 05 Feb 2025 23:13:28 +0000 Gurley cites China held 33% of global GDP in 1820 before Mao's isolation reduced it dramatically. https://minutesof.com/q/f45c1242-8cd4-4414-9710-bd491d1de9c9/ https://minutesof.com/q/f45c1242-8cd4-4414-9710-bd491d1de9c9/ “in 1820, China's economy was wide open, and they actually, had 33% of the global economy. 33% of global GDP was China.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 05 Feb 2025 23:13:28 +0000 Gurley states China's GDP share fell from 33% to 5% after Mao closed the economy. https://minutesof.com/q/f52bec3b-273e-400a-b92e-a375dc082420/ https://minutesof.com/q/f52bec3b-273e-400a-b92e-a375dc082420/ “at the end of Mao's reign, and Mao had raised the wall and and kind of turned China inwards, they had fallen to 5% of global GDP.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 05 Feb 2025 23:13:28 +0000 Gurley says Stargate will be a property-owner and operating-company structure with one owning and the other le https://minutesof.com/q/df4f224d-99fa-44a3-a351-2c11e7f42795/ https://minutesof.com/q/df4f224d-99fa-44a3-a351-2c11e7f42795/ “People are telling me it's gonna be a prop co op co structure, which I didn't even know it was twenty four hours ago, but it's it's like a one person owns the property.” — CNBC Television Fri, 24 Jan 2025 21:30:16 +0000 Gurley says the Stargate project will use a property-operating company structure he just learned about. https://minutesof.com/q/2499819a-2c9b-4621-ae61-6e857ffd9ba7/ https://minutesof.com/q/2499819a-2c9b-4621-ae61-6e857ffd9ba7/ “People are telling me it's gonna be a prop co op co structure, which I didn't even know it was twenty four hours ago,” — CNBC Television Fri, 24 Jan 2025 21:30:16 +0000 Gurley says Oracle assets in Abilene and Crusoe are potentially being rolled into the Stargate structure. https://minutesof.com/q/67003e24-58a2-497e-9279-9b4b9d6e91cc/ https://minutesof.com/q/67003e24-58a2-497e-9279-9b4b9d6e91cc/ “They're potentially rolling in assets from Oracle that are in Abilene. There's a company called Crusoe that's been involved in in the the build of that.” — CNBC Television Fri, 24 Jan 2025 21:30:16 +0000 Gurley questions why SoftBank would participate in a private credit pool given their typical investment approa https://minutesof.com/q/81c331d7-883b-4be3-b6d3-dca222ea49d1/ https://minutesof.com/q/81c331d7-883b-4be3-b6d3-dca222ea49d1/ “And this this I have three observations if all those things are true. One, I'm curious why SoftBank would wanna be part of a private credit pool. It's not what they've typically done.” — CNBC Television Fri, 24 Jan 2025 21:30:16 +0000 Gurley says propco-opco structure would add major lease liability to OpenAI's already complex cap structure. https://minutesof.com/q/047f13f6-0153-46f4-82fe-55466c8f5643/ https://minutesof.com/q/047f13f6-0153-46f4-82fe-55466c8f5643/ “if it is a prop co op co structure, this represents a big lease liability or the equivalent of a lease liability for OpenAI.” — CNBC Television Fri, 24 Jan 2025 21:30:16 +0000 Gurley says OpenAI already has the most complex cap structure ever and is adding more complexity. https://minutesof.com/q/b9883689-771f-4acb-97d3-d8ac72d6543a/ https://minutesof.com/q/b9883689-771f-4acb-97d3-d8ac72d6543a/ “So this company already had probably the most complex cap structure of any company like it that we've ever known, and they're gonna be putting one more complex piece on top.” — CNBC Television Fri, 24 Jan 2025 21:30:16 +0000 Gurley notes OpenAI already has the most complex cap structure ever seen, now adding lease liability. https://minutesof.com/q/af226d26-b704-4747-a086-b0e51f5732a1/ https://minutesof.com/q/af226d26-b704-4747-a086-b0e51f5732a1/ “So this company already had probably the most complex cap structure of any company like it that we've ever known,” — CNBC Television Fri, 24 Jan 2025 21:30:16 +0000 Gurley expects over-promotion when Trump, Masa, and Sam announce AI projects together. https://minutesof.com/q/c521e64f-f0c8-4355-89b2-224b806e9a77/ https://minutesof.com/q/c521e64f-f0c8-4355-89b2-224b806e9a77/ “And when you get Trump and and Masa and Sam in a room together, like, I I would expect some amount of over promotion.” — CNBC Television Fri, 24 Jan 2025 21:30:16 +0000 Gurley calls the Microsoft-OpenAI deal one of the most complex deals of all time. https://minutesof.com/q/0812855d-886e-4bc2-8608-82c28deb7527/ https://minutesof.com/q/0812855d-886e-4bc2-8608-82c28deb7527/ “The deal between Microsoft and OpenAI, as it's been reported, once again, I've never seen it. Sounds like one of the more complex deals of all time.” — CNBC Television Fri, 24 Jan 2025 21:30:16 +0000 Gurley says the Microsoft-OpenAI deal with $90 billion profit rights is one of the most complex ever. https://minutesof.com/q/d83902d8-ceb0-4c5f-a5f3-199363ca33f5/ https://minutesof.com/q/d83902d8-ceb0-4c5f-a5f3-199363ca33f5/ “The deal between Microsoft and OpenAI, as it's been reported, once again, I've never seen it. Sounds like one of the more complex deals of all time. They have profit rights up to, like, $90,000,000,000.” — CNBC Television Fri, 24 Jan 2025 21:30:16 +0000 Gurley notes Microsoft has profit rights up to $90 billion, unprecedented in any prior deal. https://minutesof.com/q/e09e9402-23fc-4be9-8e2d-8835a1d1017d/ https://minutesof.com/q/e09e9402-23fc-4be9-8e2d-8835a1d1017d/ “They have profit rights up to, like, $90,000,000,000. No one's ever signed a piece of paper like that before.” — CNBC Television Fri, 24 Jan 2025 21:30:16 +0000 Gurley notes uncertainty around whether Microsoft will convert OpenAI profit rights to equity. https://minutesof.com/q/53576486-a752-4056-a649-74104929ca23/ https://minutesof.com/q/53576486-a752-4056-a649-74104929ca23/ “And so they also we don't know. You know, it it sounds like OpenEye wants them to convert to equity, and we have no idea whether they're willing to do that or not.” — CNBC Television Fri, 24 Jan 2025 21:30:16 +0000 Gurley says Uber was already 20x bigger than the San Francisco taxi market when critics valued it at $4 billio https://minutesof.com/q/5ffad9d0-2541-45f5-90c8-0de940e5c6db/ https://minutesof.com/q/5ffad9d0-2541-45f5-90c8-0de940e5c6db/ “in San Francisco, we're already 20 x bigger than the San Francisco taxi market at the time he wrote it.” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley warns AI companies receiving server capacity for equity don't recognize their true COGS in real-time. https://minutesof.com/q/209f2c4d-3a71-4c64-9d3e-9e57dcde0186/ https://minutesof.com/q/209f2c4d-3a71-4c64-9d3e-9e57dcde0186/ “They're trading equity for server capacity. And so those companies are running on a day to day basis with a high COGS, but they don't know it” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley warns AI companies trading equity for server capacity don't recognize true COGS and get warped decision https://minutesof.com/q/0c835641-540c-4ab5-841a-5efd76b94e8b/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c835641-540c-4ab5-841a-5efd76b94e8b/ “They're trading equity for server capacity. And so those companies are running on a day to day basis with a high COGS, but they don't know it because they're not paying cash for it.” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley explains missing Google despite negative signs including Yahoo's collapse and Larry and Sergey both wan https://minutesof.com/q/9dfc2aff-ebe0-466f-b6fc-088bff42a3c5/ https://minutesof.com/q/9dfc2aff-ebe0-466f-b6fc-088bff42a3c5/ “These were other search companies, right, at the time. Right. Larry and Sergey both wanted to be CEO and they were PhD students at Stanford.” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley observes venture's loose money trend has persisted beyond the zero interest rate period unexpectedly. https://minutesof.com/q/a6230c8a-5ba6-4e5f-ad74-b96dbd3e45e3/ https://minutesof.com/q/a6230c8a-5ba6-4e5f-ad74-b96dbd3e45e3/ “There's been a trend in venture recently. Recently. I I thought thought it it was was the the zero zero interest interest rate rate thing that caused it, but it's sustaining beyond that.” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley says Benchmark peers increased fund sizes tenfold and moved to multi-stage investing model. https://minutesof.com/q/438efbac-8f2e-4762-9e53-636238e1cc8c/ https://minutesof.com/q/438efbac-8f2e-4762-9e53-636238e1cc8c/ “Many of the peers of Benchmark have taken their fund size up 10 x. So their their assets under management and they've entered they've declared themselves multi stage.” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley states over a thousand private unicorns have average growth rates below 10 percent. https://minutesof.com/q/399cf522-fca6-4b43-85de-6ce4999e68f9/ https://minutesof.com/q/399cf522-fca6-4b43-85de-6ce4999e68f9/ “There's over a thousand private unicorns. Some people estimate that the average growth rate, which we should talk about because it ties into unit economics and pragmatism, is below 10%.” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley says late-stage investors force-feed capital to companies based on power law beliefs in unprecedented w https://minutesof.com/q/38b4e4d8-6263-482d-b43d-4956e85b0217/ https://minutesof.com/q/38b4e4d8-6263-482d-b43d-4956e85b0217/ “It's it's it's just worse as it's ever been, where because you have these monolithic late stage players who believe in power laws, believe in network effects,” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley says late-stage VCs force-feed companies fifty to hundred million despite no capital need, like foie gr https://minutesof.com/q/6dca7dbe-2528-438c-ab6c-fb62c699362a/ https://minutesof.com/q/6dca7dbe-2528-438c-ab6c-fb62c699362a/ “They just wanna cram money in. I I I thought about it. I I learned how they force feed geese to make for gras.” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley discovered SpaceX's average employee age at Boca Chica is 29 after attending booster catch launch. https://minutesof.com/q/a32675ea-4e15-4b74-9ada-f3dc4a40b997/ https://minutesof.com/q/a32675ea-4e15-4b74-9ada-f3dc4a40b997/ “And we're at an after party after this thing, which is really lunch on South Padre Island. And we're looking around and young people everywhere.” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley reports SpaceX Boca Chica has an average employee age of 29, matching early NASA. https://minutesof.com/q/4fe06199-8dec-433d-b180-3947f9349241/ https://minutesof.com/q/4fe06199-8dec-433d-b180-3947f9349241/ “The average age at Boca Chica is 29, which is fascinating. Yeah. Yeah. And it was funny because I asked my dad, was that true at NASA? He said, yes.” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley reveals SpaceX Boca Chica average age is 29, matching early NASA when his father wrote reports at 26. https://minutesof.com/q/200f1a13-03ec-40b0-8078-26e8e831bb2c/ https://minutesof.com/q/200f1a13-03ec-40b0-8078-26e8e831bb2c/ “The average age at Boca Chica is 29, which is fascinating. Yeah. Yeah. And it was funny because I asked my dad, was that true at NASA?” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley says SpaceX maps rocket clubs at colleges and high schools for recruiting like athletic programs do. https://minutesof.com/q/6e80a619-5655-42ae-856c-ef8f220167b4/ https://minutesof.com/q/6e80a619-5655-42ae-856c-ef8f220167b4/ “I found out from this HR person that that SpaceX is mapping the rocket clubs at the college level and the best high schools. Right.” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley quotes Angela Duckworth saying perseverance cannot hold without sufficient passion underlying it. https://minutesof.com/q/d90ba268-7f85-49b3-9d67-c0ce71b93f27/ https://minutesof.com/q/d90ba268-7f85-49b3-9d67-c0ce71b93f27/ “she said what she's learned since she wrote it is the perseverance part can't hold if the passion part's not strong enough.” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley says AI consensus is unprecedented in venture history with even Fortune five hundred fully committed. https://minutesof.com/q/b48a23fb-1aeb-44d6-8f51-8a70131df81e/ https://minutesof.com/q/b48a23fb-1aeb-44d6-8f51-8a70131df81e/ “And if even if I go back to the mobile wave or the Internet wave, there were plenty of skeptics like within the Fortune 500.” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley says late-stage investors enable two-year employee liquidity at OpenAI and Stripe, removing IPO pressur https://minutesof.com/q/da209ba2-0265-4fbe-8e68-e23dd54d8d0e/ https://minutesof.com/q/da209ba2-0265-4fbe-8e68-e23dd54d8d0e/ “one of the things they're doing is they're supporting massive founder liquidity and employee liquidity. And so that's happening at Stripe, that's happening.” — McCombs School of Business Fri, 24 Jan 2025 00:57:51 +0000 Gurley argues every Delaware company should move domicile to avoid derivative lawsuit risk from staying. https://minutesof.com/q/fb2c443f-71ee-45d9-beb4-be20d7f215a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/fb2c443f-71ee-45d9-beb4-be20d7f215a3/ “I would make the argument that every company in Delaware has to move to a different domicile because they could be sued in a future derivative lawsuit for the risk they've taken by staying” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 06 Jan 2025 21:47:42 +0000 Gurley says private companies with weak metrics aren't better off than public ones; staying private is self-de https://minutesof.com/q/9a1f0cc4-ed1c-4f16-b81d-d9460343414c/ https://minutesof.com/q/9a1f0cc4-ed1c-4f16-b81d-d9460343414c/ “If you're private at a 100,000,000 revenue with a 10% growth rate, it's not like you're better off. Like like, you're just fooling yourself.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 06 Jan 2025 21:47:42 +0000 Gurley contrasts Zuckerberg's technical transparency with Altman and Amodei's high-level platitudes, suggestin https://minutesof.com/q/c7989118-6a29-4f08-9568-e50b14854a3e/ https://minutesof.com/q/c7989118-6a29-4f08-9568-e50b14854a3e/ “Dario and Sam talk in these high level platitudes about how this stuff's gonna cure cancer and we're all gonna not have to work anymore. And Zuck was down in the weeds in the meet.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 06 Jan 2025 21:47:42 +0000 Gurley contrasts Zuckerberg's technical transparency with Altman and Amodei's high-level platitudes about AI. https://minutesof.com/q/a0decd53-60b4-4484-8e86-67e72884ee76/ https://minutesof.com/q/a0decd53-60b4-4484-8e86-67e72884ee76/ “Dario and Sam talk in these high level platitudes about how this stuff's gonna cure cancer and we're all gonna not have to work anymore.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 06 Jan 2025 21:47:42 +0000 Gurley suggests a healthcare industrial complex has emerged that prioritizes profit over cost-effective preven https://minutesof.com/q/1fe9bd9a-dbc8-4271-af01-69814b89c715/ https://minutesof.com/q/1fe9bd9a-dbc8-4271-af01-69814b89c715/ “People talk about the military industrial complex. We may have created a health care industrial complex that really can't stop maximizing profitability and not focus necessarily on the lowest cost, best, most preventative process.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 06 Jan 2025 21:47:42 +0000 Gurley calls anti-Chinese sentiment irrational given China's lead in EVs and infrastructure while America main https://minutesof.com/q/168141e4-9ed2-43a1-b661-cd71af64f1a7/ https://minutesof.com/q/168141e4-9ed2-43a1-b661-cd71af64f1a7/ “I think this anti Chinese mentality is a little nuts because if you look at low cost EVs, if you look at their subway stations, if you look at, they're leading us in many areas.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 06 Jan 2025 21:47:42 +0000 Gurley criticizes anti-Chinese sentiment, arguing China leads in EVs and infrastructure while America has holi https://minutesof.com/q/6ebfd782-f4eb-48e9-800b-cc3c265a6f2b/ https://minutesof.com/q/6ebfd782-f4eb-48e9-800b-cc3c265a6f2b/ “And we have this holier than thou attitude that America is the best and that we're the leader and we're being passed.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 06 Jan 2025 21:47:42 +0000 with Blackwell, not only is it way, way, way faster, anywhere from 10 to 15 times on really large models for i https://minutesof.com/q/c310de9b-dc1b-4540-a8b1-6178b1463f48/ https://minutesof.com/q/c310de9b-dc1b-4540-a8b1-6178b1463f48/ “with Blackwell, not only is it way, way, way faster, anywhere from 10 to 15 times on really large models for inference because they've optimized it for very large language models.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Patel says Blackwell delivers five times performance TCO improvement in single year, accelerating LLM cost dec https://minutesof.com/q/279cdc86-ddf1-4907-8bcc-3cb1c5004ac8/ https://minutesof.com/q/279cdc86-ddf1-4907-8bcc-3cb1c5004ac8/ “At least that's what Blackwell is, and we'll see what Ruben does. But, you know, five x plus in a single year for performance TCO is an insane pace.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Patel explains scaling laws require ten times more investment for each model iteration with specific dollar am https://minutesof.com/q/7248cc4c-a766-4898-a77f-0a473c94f72a/ https://minutesof.com/q/7248cc4c-a766-4898-a77f-0a473c94f72a/ “A log I e, it takes 10 x more investment to get the next iteration. Well, 10 x more investment, you know, you know, going from 30,000,000 to 300,000,000, 300,000,000 to 3,000,000,000 is relevant.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Patel notes AI initially threatened artists most, but synthetic data generation now targets technical jobs. https://minutesof.com/q/79f4dc61-489c-4b1d-a9f1-ec3da385537c/ https://minutesof.com/q/79f4dc61-489c-4b1d-a9f1-ec3da385537c/ “Artists are the one that are the most, you know, out of luck, not not technical jobs.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Patel argues scaling continues because hyperscalers are building multi-gigawatt data centers and connecting th https://minutesof.com/q/075fb7fa-7e85-45f7-a574-720f900c7136/ https://minutesof.com/q/075fb7fa-7e85-45f7-a574-720f900c7136/ “Why is why is Amazon building these multi gigawatt data centers? Why is Google? Why is Microsoft building multiple gigawatt data centers plus buying billions and billions of dollars of fiber to connect them together” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Patel argues hyperscalers are building multi-gigawatt data centers and buying billions in fiber to win on scal https://minutesof.com/q/c4005777-b6ad-4670-bcaf-ceb3ab21315d/ https://minutesof.com/q/c4005777-b6ad-4670-bcaf-ceb3ab21315d/ “Why is Microsoft building multiple gigawatt data centers plus buying billions and billions of dollars of fiber to connect them together because they think, hey.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Patel distinguishes NVIDIA's revenue from positive cash flows versus Cisco's dot-com era credit-funded telecom https://minutesof.com/q/0800fb16-0936-4ac6-b8b4-246c7c89f3ad/ https://minutesof.com/q/0800fb16-0936-4ac6-b8b4-246c7c89f3ad/ “Cisco's revenue, a lot of it was funded through private slash credit investments into building out telecom infrastructure. Right? When we look at NVIDIA's revenue sources, very little of it is private slash credit.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Patel describes reasoning models generating thousands of thinking tokens, sometimes switching languages mid-re https://minutesof.com/q/476ea39f-bfb6-495d-9a59-81ea69699b0d/ https://minutesof.com/q/476ea39f-bfb6-495d-9a59-81ea69699b0d/ “It generates tons of things. It's like it it sometimes switches between Chinese and English. Right? Like, whatever it is. It's thinking. Right? It's churning.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Patel explains reasoning models increase cost ten times by outputting 11,000 tokens versus 1,000 for same quer https://minutesof.com/q/9aed22e0-c898-4e8e-9a74-966679c754b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/9aed22e0-c898-4e8e-9a74-966679c754b1/ “I outputted a thousand tokens to I outputted 11,000 tokens. I've 10x'd my spend to generate no. Not the same thing. Right? It's higher quality.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Gurley explains o one reasoning models cost 50x more per query due to 10x tokens and one-fifth concurrent user https://minutesof.com/q/38ed7f4e-e6ed-4c16-bbcb-20d3ff13c81a/ https://minutesof.com/q/38ed7f4e-e6ed-4c16-bbcb-20d3ff13c81a/ “E. Concurrent users I can have is a fraction of that. One fourth to one fifth the number of users can currently use the server.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Patel calculates reasoning models cost fifty times more per query due to batch size and token generation combi https://minutesof.com/q/3af95131-05a1-45d4-ae2d-9578bd46190d/ https://minutesof.com/q/3af95131-05a1-45d4-ae2d-9578bd46190d/ “Cost increase for a single token to be generated is four to five x, but then I'm generating 10 x as many tokens.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 You know, I can go from 10,000,000 to 100,000,000 to billion to $10,000,000,000 on reasoning in such a quick s https://minutesof.com/q/62ff4fe1-86c3-4195-b4f5-3a55efd51a21/ https://minutesof.com/q/62ff4fe1-86c3-4195-b4f5-3a55efd51a21/ “You know, I can go from 10,000,000 to 100,000,000 to billion to $10,000,000,000 on reasoning in such a quick succession.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Gurley notes NVIDIA's highest cost of goods sold is HBM memory, not TSMC silicon, which people don't realize. https://minutesof.com/q/64260f0b-5b01-41cc-b5e6-b4cd813494c1/ https://minutesof.com/q/64260f0b-5b01-41cc-b5e6-b4cd813494c1/ “Their highest cost of goods sold is not TSMC, which is a thing that people don't realize. It's actually HBM memory, primarily SK for now also.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Patel says Amazon and Anthropic building 400,000 chip Trainium supercomputer proves they believe scaling conti https://minutesof.com/q/fb579459-b9f0-48bb-b811-bb4cfc02123b/ https://minutesof.com/q/fb579459-b9f0-48bb-b811-bb4cfc02123b/ “And and because of this, right, Amazon and Anthropic have decided to, you know, make a 400,000 Trainium server supercomputer. Right? 400,000 chips. Right? Going back to the whole scaling law is dead.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Patel reveals Amazon and Anthropic are building a 400,000 Trainium chip supercomputer as evidence scaling cont https://minutesof.com/q/f82e7a79-273d-4b6e-8272-b34b89b6482f/ https://minutesof.com/q/f82e7a79-273d-4b6e-8272-b34b89b6482f/ “Amazon and Anthropic have decided to, you know, make a 400,000 Trainium server supercomputer. Right? 400,000 chips. Right? Going back to the whole scaling law is dead.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Gurley warns 2026 is when the reckoning comes on whether AI infrastructure spending continues at current pace. https://minutesof.com/q/56f29114-bc4f-4980-8a5f-590223cf0360/ https://minutesof.com/q/56f29114-bc4f-4980-8a5f-590223cf0360/ “It's gonna bring so many people with them. But 2026 is like where the reckoning comes. Right? But, you know, will will people keep spending like this?” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 The Middle East, the sovereign wealth funds in Singapore and and Nordics and, you know, Canadian pension fund https://minutesof.com/q/e01e75bd-0b6b-4610-9a72-cafd7fec1909/ https://minutesof.com/q/e01e75bd-0b6b-4610-9a72-cafd7fec1909/ “The Middle East, the sovereign wealth funds in Singapore and and Nordics and, you know, Canadian pension fund and all these folks.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Patel predicts sovereign wealth funds from Middle East, Singapore, and Nordics will write big checks to AI lab https://minutesof.com/q/bfc5b0ee-d5c2-404c-b2d2-4e0abbef82b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/bfc5b0ee-d5c2-404c-b2d2-4e0abbef82b1/ “The Middle East, the sovereign wealth funds in Singapore and and Nordics and, you know, Canadian pension fund and all these folks. They can throw they can write really big checks.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 Gurley states NVIDIA holds 98% of purchased AI workloads when captive workloads are excluded. https://minutesof.com/q/4a0e2fd9-353f-417e-b371-e627e55d06c2/ https://minutesof.com/q/4a0e2fd9-353f-417e-b371-e627e55d06c2/ “If you just look at, I guess, workloads people are purchasing to do work on their own, so you take the captives out, you're at 98, right?” — BG2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:12:56 +0000 Gurley notes AI leaders previously implied linear scaling gains but current reality differs from that impressi https://minutesof.com/q/9e8745ec-5c54-4385-accb-630672e0cc36/ https://minutesof.com/q/9e8745ec-5c54-4385-accb-630672e0cc36/ “They had left that impression. And so we get to this place as you described it, it's not quite like that.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:12:56 +0000 Gurley draws parallel to internet era when companies migrated away from Oracle and Sun as optimization replace https://minutesof.com/q/7dbd3f8a-f998-4148-9e33-947ed3fcc5ad/ https://minutesof.com/q/7dbd3f8a-f998-4148-9e33-947ed3fcc5ad/ “And five years later, they weren't on Oracle or Sun. And some have argued it went from a development sandbox world to a optimization world.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:12:56 +0000 Gurley calls Nadella possibly the best CEO hire of all time, citing trillion-dollar value creation. https://minutesof.com/q/a835bbb3-8ed9-42b4-b389-2fb5d84db925/ https://minutesof.com/q/a835bbb3-8ed9-42b4-b389-2fb5d84db925/ “I think that it's definitive that you may be the best CEO hire of all time. I mean, trillion is unmatched.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 12 Dec 2024 18:20:19 +0000 Gurley argues this AI shift differs from past platform shifts because all incumbents are awake and starting si https://minutesof.com/q/b5c60fc9-1d66-4358-a1e6-daaab9bc74ec/ https://minutesof.com/q/b5c60fc9-1d66-4358-a1e6-daaab9bc74ec/ “I could argue, especially since I'm old and I've seen these shifts that everyone's awake on this one, or it has, it's the most awake, like it's heavily choreographed.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 12 Dec 2024 18:20:19 +0000 Gurley questions whether platforms will allow AI agents to control apps and access data across their ecosystem https://minutesof.com/q/e2b0ed2f-7fd2-497f-a473-fb606ec289fa/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2b0ed2f-7fd2-497f-a473-fb606ec289fa/ “Will Apple allow Microsoft to control other apps on iOS? Will Microsoft let ChatGPT instantiate apps and take data from apps on Windows OS? I mean, you get the question.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 12 Dec 2024 18:20:19 +0000 Gurley asks whether platforms will allow AI agents to control apps and access data across ecosystems. https://minutesof.com/q/7050efb1-437d-41d6-9e9a-73b59a249aa1/ https://minutesof.com/q/7050efb1-437d-41d6-9e9a-73b59a249aa1/ “Will Apple allow Microsoft to control other apps on iOS? Will Microsoft let ChatGPT instantiate apps and take data from apps on Windows OS?” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 12 Dec 2024 18:20:19 +0000 Gurley extends the interoperability question to whether marketplaces will allow AI to execute transactions wit https://minutesof.com/q/ca57aae9-0a43-473b-9f20-932060c02488/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca57aae9-0a43-473b-9f20-932060c02488/ “It goes all the way to when you start thinking about search and commerce, like, will booking.com let Gemini run transactions on it without their permission or knowledge?” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 12 Dec 2024 18:20:19 +0000 Gurley questions whether AI-first products could make existing infrastructure like Excel spreadsheets obsolete https://minutesof.com/q/649e356b-f687-433d-ba6b-bcdb6dc09206/ https://minutesof.com/q/649e356b-f687-433d-ba6b-bcdb6dc09206/ “Do you worry that someone might think kind of first principles AI from ground up and that some of the infrastructure say in an Excel spreadsheet isn't necessary to know if you did an AI first product.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 12 Dec 2024 18:20:19 +0000 Gurley notes shifting narrative suggesting inference scaling is preferable to training CapEx. https://minutesof.com/q/168ba19f-f3d8-48fd-bbbd-632f2cb46217/ https://minutesof.com/q/168ba19f-f3d8-48fd-bbbd-632f2cb46217/ “There was a podcast recently where they kind of flipped everything on their head and they said, well, if we're not doing that anymore, it's way better because we can just move on to inference, which is getting cheaper and you won't have to spend all this CapEx.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 12 Dec 2024 18:20:19 +0000 Gurley says China graduates 35% STEM versus below 10% in US, giving them necessary advantages. https://minutesof.com/q/98dc1d54-6308-4414-aea0-3dfcd4115d72/ https://minutesof.com/q/98dc1d54-6308-4414-aea0-3dfcd4115d72/ “the number of graduates in China's university system that are STEM is 35%, and that number is below 10 in The US.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:11:58 +0000 Gurley argues blocking technology exports to China is not working and US needs to face reality. https://minutesof.com/q/3852c40c-1d77-4af5-97c3-abd014d5ce96/ https://minutesof.com/q/3852c40c-1d77-4af5-97c3-abd014d5ce96/ “And I don't think blocking ASML or blocking AI technology or blocking anything is working. It's just not working.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:11:58 +0000 Gurley explains compounding IPO ratchets create misalignment by making late investors want lower IPO prices. https://minutesof.com/q/91e56e39-ac9e-412e-bcd7-0dbc639baef0/ https://minutesof.com/q/91e56e39-ac9e-412e-bcd7-0dbc639baef0/ “The the later stage investors that wrote this compounding ratchet term actually want the IPO to be as low as possible because they'll they'll get more shares.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:11:58 +0000 Gurley says Visa and Mastercard have the highest operating margins in North American markets. https://minutesof.com/q/d16b8027-1c33-419f-99c1-bcc03e79163b/ https://minutesof.com/q/d16b8027-1c33-419f-99c1-bcc03e79163b/ “And there's another fact that you should know in North America, which is Visa and Mastercard have the two highest operating margin percentages in our markets total.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:11:58 +0000 Gurley praises Anthropic's decision to open source their MCP data connection tool with GitHub and Slack integr https://minutesof.com/q/b14549ce-28c4-4912-93ab-339c21784ef1/ https://minutesof.com/q/b14549ce-28c4-4912-93ab-339c21784ef1/ “They released several integrations already in the initial pack, with good GitHub and Slack and a few others so that you can start having your agents interact with these things.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:11:58 +0000 Gurley says Anthropic and investor Eric Schmidt have been pushing for more AI oversight and regulation. https://minutesof.com/q/b428897a-63d3-4789-aa14-437a0bceef08/ https://minutesof.com/q/b428897a-63d3-4789-aa14-437a0bceef08/ “based on what I've heard and seen and read and listened to on podcast, Anthropic and their investors like Eric Schmidt have been some of the people that have been encouraging, you know, more and more AI oversight and AI regulation” — BG2 Pod Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:11:58 +0000 Gurley says if scaling laws are hitting limits it has implications but doesn't mean AI is done. https://minutesof.com/q/d43376c8-e7cc-4cb7-b307-3a5be2ec94aa/ https://minutesof.com/q/d43376c8-e7cc-4cb7-b307-3a5be2ec94aa/ “if the the comment, you know, that you read earlier is true and that these and that they're not getting the benefit, there are implications.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:09:14 +0000 Gurley argues OpenAI and Anthropic expected continued scaling twelve months ago, not current limits. https://minutesof.com/q/03ecea7e-21cb-4d1e-8895-c6002871a50e/ https://minutesof.com/q/03ecea7e-21cb-4d1e-8895-c6002871a50e/ “Like, because they were promoting a thesis that it was just gonna keep going up” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:09:14 +0000 Gurley says NVIDIA differentiation is greatest at largest cluster size for LLM pre-training. https://minutesof.com/q/d25c217f-5ffb-410e-901d-e5e6d84b201d/ https://minutesof.com/q/d25c217f-5ffb-410e-901d-e5e6d84b201d/ “One, the NVIDIA differentiation as we've talked about is greatest at the largest cluster size. So if pre training, once again, I only equate this to LLMs, you know, I don't think of FSD problem.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:09:14 +0000 Gurley says DOGE methodology is to expose government waste publicly, with transparency as disinfectant. https://minutesof.com/q/7be4417c-1baa-4556-8349-739161fb7122/ https://minutesof.com/q/7be4417c-1baa-4556-8349-739161fb7122/ “The methodology that I'm gonna assume was Elon's idea is basically to shine a flashlight on the ideocracy that exists. And, you know, transparency can be a hell of a disinfectant.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:09:14 +0000 Gurley says two largest US departments failed audits for three to five years running. https://minutesof.com/q/c56c4df5-bcf0-4304-929c-91ce0577aed0/ https://minutesof.com/q/c56c4df5-bcf0-4304-929c-91ce0577aed0/ “one of the things that's already come up is I think two of the largest departments in the country have failed audits for like three to five of the past years.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:09:14 +0000 Gurley asks what percentage of 1,400 pre-LLM private unicorns could raise up rounds today. https://minutesof.com/q/724a7042-19ae-4489-95c8-8b64fc6f9da4/ https://minutesof.com/q/724a7042-19ae-4489-95c8-8b64fc6f9da4/ “What percentage of those could raise an up round right now? Yeah. What is the number?” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:46:51 +0000 Gurley recounts PE firm making billion dollars on DoubleClick exit but struggling because it was in $4 billion https://minutesof.com/q/3343a9c6-fb7e-44a0-8c79-7c3ca1fbe971/ https://minutesof.com/q/3343a9c6-fb7e-44a0-8c79-7c3ca1fbe971/ “I said to him, I want to say, congratulations, man, that's incredible. He goes, well, it's in a $4,000,000,000 fund. Wow. Wow. You know? Yeah. So, That's you have an incredible outcome.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:46:51 +0000 Gurley notes TSMC announced 20% across-the-board price increase as expected proof point of supply-demand dynam https://minutesof.com/q/c6c1ad8c-5c13-4f2b-b47b-f745e6942016/ https://minutesof.com/q/c6c1ad8c-5c13-4f2b-b47b-f745e6942016/ “Another thing that came out this morning that I was kind of waiting on as a proof point, because it didn't make sense to me that it hadn't happened yet, TSMC said they're gonna do across the board 20 price increase.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:46:51 +0000 Gurley explains Google's revenue per visit will fall with completed transactions because advertisers pay less https://minutesof.com/q/4501a6cf-9ca9-44e6-abfb-22019280aba1/ https://minutesof.com/q/4501a6cf-9ca9-44e6-abfb-22019280aba1/ “Because someone is spending marketing dollars to take that customer to their website and run the transaction with the hopes that they'll come directly back to that website.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:46:51 +0000 Gurley argues NVIDIA's competitive advantage is strongest in the largest systems, not at the edge. https://minutesof.com/q/4150c1eb-f5ad-4034-bb6a-14707e5b147a/ https://minutesof.com/q/4150c1eb-f5ad-4034-bb6a-14707e5b147a/ “it appears to me that NVIDIA's competitive advantage is strongest where the size of the system is largest, which is another way of saying what Renee said. It's flipping it on its head.” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:35:00 +0000 Gurley explains NVIDIA's networking, NVLink, and CUDA advantages emerge specifically in the largest system dep https://minutesof.com/q/3cd5de34-3e0c-4b75-adef-e5e5e2d29a6d/ https://minutesof.com/q/3cd5de34-3e0c-4b75-adef-e5e5e2d29a6d/ “That's when the networking piece thrives. That's where NVLink thrives. That's where CUDA really comes alive in the biggest systems that are out there.” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:35:00 +0000 Gurley realizes NVIDIA needs multiple large system companies like CoreWeave to maximize its competitive advant https://minutesof.com/q/51cfee06-b666-4d7b-b25f-8d608242bf2d/ https://minutesof.com/q/51cfee06-b666-4d7b-b25f-8d608242bf2d/ “Like like like if if the biggest systems are where the biggest competitive advantage is, you need as many of these big system companies as you can possibly have.” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:35:00 +0000 Gurley notes early internet startups shifted from 100% Oracle and Sun to Linux and MySQL in five years. https://minutesof.com/q/b2544452-e14d-41e8-b5c6-0c3f63852547/ https://minutesof.com/q/b2544452-e14d-41e8-b5c6-0c3f63852547/ “Every single fucking one of them were running on Oracle and Sun. And five years later, they were all running on Linux and MySQL, like in five years.” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:35:00 +0000 Gurley observes Elon Musk obtained roughly 10% of NVIDIA's quarterly availability for x.ai despite massive dem https://minutesof.com/q/8e7d8a0c-2204-44fe-ac49-f158eb188d2d/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e7d8a0c-2204-44fe-ac49-f158eb188d2d/ “And he walks in and takes what equate sounds looks like about 10% of the quarter's availability.” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:35:00 +0000 Gurley argues NVIDIA's moat is misunderstood because it spans the full stack, not just chips. https://minutesof.com/q/ef7835c6-2a48-4ab9-8b62-88211069735f/ https://minutesof.com/q/ef7835c6-2a48-4ab9-8b62-88211069735f/ “one of the most misunderstood things about NVIDIA is how deep the true NVIDIA moat is, right?” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:30:00 +0000 Gurley says analysts miss NVIDIA's ecosystem thinking and multi-year planning beyond current architecture. https://minutesof.com/q/99aeb509-4a3a-4028-8ea3-3139a56861f1/ https://minutesof.com/q/99aeb509-4a3a-4028-8ea3-3139a56861f1/ “I think analysts always focus on the current architectural bet. But I think one of the biggest takeaways from this conversation is that we're thinking about the entire ecosystem and many years out.” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:30:00 +0000 Gurley says hyperscalers as nuclear customers may be 10x better than utilities, bringing more risk-tolerant in https://minutesof.com/q/67d325ec-bd6b-4e04-8475-98a37dd44792/ https://minutesof.com/q/67d325ec-bd6b-4e04-8475-98a37dd44792/ “if the hyperscalers become part of the customer set for the nuclear startups that may be like 10x better than selling just to utilities alone.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 25 Sep 2024 16:21:38 +0000 Gurley explains Strawberry requires 10X processing for linear improvement, meaning 10-100X inference costs for https://minutesof.com/q/27a00324-83ae-472e-8e7b-d4900e14122e/ https://minutesof.com/q/27a00324-83ae-472e-8e7b-d4900e14122e/ “in order to get linear improvement, you have to do maybe 10X the amount of processing. And this is all inference. So what are the implications of that?” — BG2 Pod Wed, 25 Sep 2024 16:21:38 +0000 Gurley argues Sam Altman's Washington access is valuable as regulation could reinforce OpenAI's competitive lo https://minutesof.com/q/47b39a4c-1e89-481a-8489-4d372d16ccee/ https://minutesof.com/q/47b39a4c-1e89-481a-8489-4d372d16ccee/ “He seems to have remarkable touch in Washington and access, which, you know, regulation appears to be coming at us fast and furious.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 25 Sep 2024 16:21:38 +0000 Gurley says successful companies now routinely pressured to raise $500M or more, fundamentally changing ventur https://minutesof.com/q/ca64b827-0916-439e-8df3-f698daf3e82a/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca64b827-0916-439e-8df3-f698daf3e82a/ “I think you're gonna, until this change, I think you're gonna have very few companies that are considered to be doing well that aren't asked by the industry to raise $500,000,000 or more.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 25 Sep 2024 16:21:38 +0000 Gurley questions whether overfeeding startups with cash leads to poor execution, citing companies burning $20M https://minutesof.com/q/6ea8b04c-2d32-4909-ba85-48b1e9bf99e2/ https://minutesof.com/q/6ea8b04c-2d32-4909-ba85-48b1e9bf99e2/ “does overfeeding these companies with cash lead to non optimal execution? And you and I were deeply involved in the Uber situation, but you know, when you start losing a billion dollars a year, or even I would say $20,000,000 a month, you're very far away from profitability. And we talk a lot about focus and constraints” — BG2 Pod Wed, 25 Sep 2024 16:21:38 +0000 Gurley says U.S. nuclear plants cost $13 billion per gigawatt versus China's $2.5 billion for equivalent techn https://minutesof.com/q/51aa0c48-2372-4bb2-aa33-eebfd76a7372/ https://minutesof.com/q/51aa0c48-2372-4bb2-aa33-eebfd76a7372/ “We recently brought on two new plants in The U. S. Vogtle three and four in And the total cost of that was about 30,000,000,000 for 2.2 gigawatts. It turns out over $13,000,000,000 per gigawatt.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley says China brings level three fission plants online at $2.5 billion per gigawatt versus $13 billion in https://minutesof.com/q/23658c84-6f9a-452a-a951-afa47d8da278/ https://minutesof.com/q/23658c84-6f9a-452a-a951-afa47d8da278/ “The plants in China that are the equivalent level three fission plants right now are coming on board at two point five billion per gigawatt.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley says the most surprising finding is that nuclear industry insiders are not shocked by the 5X cost diffe https://minutesof.com/q/8de503d1-ad42-40cd-89bd-f10065ea8080/ https://minutesof.com/q/8de503d1-ad42-40cd-89bd-f10065ea8080/ “So 13 to 2.5. Right, right. And that's a shocking Delta. Yes. And one of, I would say the single most surprising thing to me of all the discussions I've had in the past two weeks with everyone that's in this industry is how few people are shocked by that.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley notes South Korea achieves the same low nuclear costs as China while being a democracy and U.S. ally. https://minutesof.com/q/17755769-e00f-4a3f-bb0d-dd26d81677b5/ https://minutesof.com/q/17755769-e00f-4a3f-bb0d-dd26d81677b5/ “South Korea is a democracy, a friend of The United States, they're at the same delivered price point as And they're doing it at scale and they're starting to export their technology.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley explains U.S. nuclear permitting takes ten years and the NRC charges hourly fees to regulate plants. https://minutesof.com/q/cf597b63-b3c6-4844-83b5-ae87abb4bf60/ https://minutesof.com/q/cf597b63-b3c6-4844-83b5-ae87abb4bf60/ “So the separate federal and state environmental permitting processes in The US is onerous, lengthy, probably ten years for a nuclear power plant, expensive.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley explains the NRC charges nuclear operators hourly fees for regulation, driving up costs significantly. https://minutesof.com/q/69e62bd1-7bc0-43e4-9cba-ea3784fc9bf2/ https://minutesof.com/q/69e62bd1-7bc0-43e4-9cba-ea3784fc9bf2/ “Most people don't know this, you have no reason to know this, but the NRC is a fee based regulatory.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley explains the NRC charges fees per hour for regulation, making nuclear development expensive in the US. https://minutesof.com/q/c11cd4a7-d663-455f-9cfe-2e05a1dc3a31/ https://minutesof.com/q/c11cd4a7-d663-455f-9cfe-2e05a1dc3a31/ “Most people don't know this, you have no reason to know this, but the NRC is a fee based regulatory. So you literally pay per hour to have them come regulate you.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley argues anti-China attitudes are counterproductive when China is leading in infrastructure and cost effi https://minutesof.com/q/d8951f59-2336-4eed-9da1-a6d3e26822b4/ https://minutesof.com/q/d8951f59-2336-4eed-9da1-a6d3e26822b4/ “I think this anti Chinese mentality is a little nuts because if you look at low cost EVs, if you look at their subway stations, if you look at, they're leading us in many areas and we have this holier than thou attitude that America is the best and that we're the leader and we're being passed.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley argues U.S. refuses to license South Korean nuclear technology despite cost advantages due to mental bl https://minutesof.com/q/8b848938-80c2-4224-8dd6-ac2843227c57/ https://minutesof.com/q/8b848938-80c2-4224-8dd6-ac2843227c57/ “I ask all the AI bots, do you think there's any chance we would license something from South Korea? They all said, no, there's no chance we would do that.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 You know, they used to call or I've heard people refer to modern day semiconductor investing as a sport of Kin https://minutesof.com/q/783ee825-21f7-4da9-9936-05321c2ba2e1/ https://minutesof.com/q/783ee825-21f7-4da9-9936-05321c2ba2e1/ “You know, they used to call or I've heard people refer to modern day semiconductor investing as a sport of Kings. Right. Because you're 50,000,000 to first take.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley says SMR startups face $60 million in NRC fees just to get approval, citing NuScale's failure as exampl https://minutesof.com/q/25d4305c-dd0e-4f2c-af18-e3bac256d1a4/ https://minutesof.com/q/25d4305c-dd0e-4f2c-af18-e3bac256d1a4/ “NuScale had to start laying people off it's just tough. And the other tough part, the NRC, which we haven't talked much about, but the regulatory commission here in The U.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley reports SMR startups face $60 million in fees just for NRC approval before building anything. https://minutesof.com/q/15a27560-7f78-4850-90db-1459700b5313/ https://minutesof.com/q/15a27560-7f78-4850-90db-1459700b5313/ “And the other tough part, the NRC, which we haven't talked much about, but the regulatory commission here in The U. S.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley says SMR startups face $60 million in NRC fees just to get approval before building anything. https://minutesof.com/q/b83e19e6-5069-401b-b41c-ec3d21d32307/ https://minutesof.com/q/b83e19e6-5069-401b-b41c-ec3d21d32307/ “Is fee based and all the people that are playing in this market I've talked to say you're probably 60,000,000 to first approval, just on fees the startups gonna pay to the NRC” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley cites Pennsylvania bridge rebuilt in twelve days when regulation was removed as counter-example to curr https://minutesof.com/q/c9d89b7a-4e1b-4a39-8c56-b6916f9a7363/ https://minutesof.com/q/c9d89b7a-4e1b-4a39-8c56-b6916f9a7363/ “And I don't think the impacts We're at a 4X cost if I don't think you get there, And you so, I mentioned this earlier, but Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor, everyone praises because this bridge went down on I-ninety 5 and he got it back up in twelve days.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley argues nuclear regulation must be rewritten from scratch and major projects protected from litigation. https://minutesof.com/q/eb17844f-b5a9-42a6-a273-d65d0076d9da/ https://minutesof.com/q/eb17844f-b5a9-42a6-a273-d65d0076d9da/ “if you want to go build this next generation level three plant, I think you've got to rewrite the regulation from zero ground up, like make it thinner and tighter and two, I think we've gotten to the point where we got to say, this is so important, you can't sue these people.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley argues eliminating lawsuit rights is necessary for important nuclear infrastructure projects to succeed https://minutesof.com/q/86b79c5d-3683-4aa3-ad67-c20e385ef65c/ https://minutesof.com/q/86b79c5d-3683-4aa3-ad67-c20e385ef65c/ “I think we've gotten to the point where we got to say, this is so important, you can't sue these people.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley says AI models confirm no one has attempted to commercialize Navy nuclear reactor technology for civili https://minutesof.com/q/a6e1d390-d00f-4ac6-9f0b-1e4b08a45e07/ https://minutesof.com/q/a6e1d390-d00f-4ac6-9f0b-1e4b08a45e07/ “I ask all the AIs, has anyone tried to commercialize the learnings of the Navy? And they said, no, everywhere I ask” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley proposes Manhattan Project approach with IP-free solutions borrowing from Navy nuclear experience to ca https://minutesof.com/q/852ce6d0-6bc6-4c17-bc7a-2336732e1abf/ https://minutesof.com/q/852ce6d0-6bc6-4c17-bc7a-2336732e1abf/ “And then two, consider some type of Manhattan project like approach where you get out of the current environment, you get a lot of smart people thinking from first principles, you may be borrowed from what the Navy's done and consider open source or IP free solutions to get everybody on the same page.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:50:28 +0000 Gurley says China builds nuclear plants at $2.5B per gigawatt versus $13B in the US. https://minutesof.com/q/95240bad-3a90-45e8-8faf-da958201364d/ https://minutesof.com/q/95240bad-3a90-45e8-8faf-da958201364d/ “The plants in China that are the equivalent level three fission plants right now are coming on board at 2,500,000,000 per gigawatt. Right. So 13 to 2.5.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:12:29 +0000 Gurley argues South Korea achieves China's nuclear costs as a democracy, making the comparison more relevant. https://minutesof.com/q/b0ab9b57-a56c-479c-9864-f622f26dde50/ https://minutesof.com/q/b0ab9b57-a56c-479c-9864-f622f26dde50/ “South Korea is a democracy, a friend of The United they're at the same delivered price point as And they're doing it at scale and they're starting to export their technology.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:12:29 +0000 Gurley explains the NRC is fee-based and environmental litigation prevents nuclear development in the US. https://minutesof.com/q/519b4da8-2867-4c01-9e18-ab154883a3d4/ https://minutesof.com/q/519b4da8-2867-4c01-9e18-ab154883a3d4/ “And so those costs are extremely high. The second thing is litigation. So multiple special interest groups, particularly environmental groups will sue to stop any development whatsoever.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:12:29 +0000 Gurley argues anti-China attitudes are misguided as China is leading in infrastructure and cost efficiency. https://minutesof.com/q/eaead953-0654-4e08-8dc7-843b4ca68ab3/ https://minutesof.com/q/eaead953-0654-4e08-8dc7-843b4ca68ab3/ “I think this anti Chinese mentality is a little nuts because if you look at low cost EVs, if you look at their subway stations, if you look at, they're leading us in many areas.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:12:29 +0000 Gurley calls nuclear investment a sport of emperors requiring multi-billions to first revenue. https://minutesof.com/q/c3f0c658-fcc4-45e8-90fb-3797b657d5aa/ https://minutesof.com/q/c3f0c658-fcc4-45e8-90fb-3797b657d5aa/ “If that's a sport of Kings, this is a sport of emperors. Like you may be multi billions to first revenue.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:12:29 +0000 Gurley proposes rewriting nuclear regulation from scratch and eliminating lawsuit rights for important project https://minutesof.com/q/4241ab74-6816-4ffb-a875-518044ebc518/ https://minutesof.com/q/4241ab74-6816-4ffb-a875-518044ebc518/ “And if you want to go build this next generation level three plant, I think you've got to rewrite the regulation from zero ground up, like make it thinner and tighter and two, I think we've gotten to the point where we got to say, this is so important, you can't sue these people.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:12:29 +0000 Gurley suggests leveraging Navy SMR technology with hyperscaler backing as a mini Manhattan Project approach. https://minutesof.com/q/d68282f0-fea3-45e1-95e2-7e89a81382d2/ https://minutesof.com/q/d68282f0-fea3-45e1-95e2-7e89a81382d2/ “Or for the SMR one by leveraging what's been done in the Navy, maybe getting these hyperscalers behind it. And maybe that's a mini version of a Manhattan project.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:12:29 +0000 Gurley argues AI wave is unprecedented because incumbents like Microsoft moved fast from the start, unlike typ https://minutesof.com/q/8c0cf8d3-e9ed-4b6e-a347-e11f3ef7ce9e/ https://minutesof.com/q/8c0cf8d3-e9ed-4b6e-a347-e11f3ef7ce9e/ “This is one of the very first waves where the incumbents were eyes wide open at the beginning of the technology shift.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 09 Aug 2024 00:27:40 +0000 Gurley suggests incumbents may be aggressively investing in AI specifically to block OpenAI and Anthropic from https://minutesof.com/q/d113f877-1953-4dfc-8201-c42774245901/ https://minutesof.com/q/d113f877-1953-4dfc-8201-c42774245901/ “And now you've got people, you know, trying to project income statements and balance sheets of these companies and they're speculating about whether they might need to raise again or not.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 09 Aug 2024 00:27:40 +0000 Gurley argues Google's search monetization is so superior that no Bing deal could match Apple's current econom https://minutesof.com/q/0fc4cd78-97e8-47f4-8bfb-7bd7d7401803/ https://minutesof.com/q/0fc4cd78-97e8-47f4-8bfb-7bd7d7401803/ “So there's no like Apple's not mad about this deal. They're very positively impacted by it.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 09 Aug 2024 00:27:40 +0000 Gurley proposes one-sided partnership terms as a new monopoly test under Sherman Act section two. https://minutesof.com/q/851116b2-8d58-45a7-a422-e16b48850618/ https://minutesof.com/q/851116b2-8d58-45a7-a422-e16b48850618/ “Because I do think it's a sign of strength. And I could even go further and say that it should qualify under the Section two of the Sherman Act.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 09 Aug 2024 00:27:40 +0000 Gurley identifies double taxation risk in take-under deals where MAG-seven payments flow through corporate rev https://minutesof.com/q/8e96089c-9869-4369-a417-3d5d584e7dab/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e96089c-9869-4369-a417-3d5d584e7dab/ “as I understand it, there is a substantial double taxation risk. And if this is not the case, it's a thing I'd love for someone to educate me on.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 09 Aug 2024 00:27:40 +0000 Gurley argues taxing unrealized capital gains would undermine entrepreneurial incentives and is nearly impossi https://minutesof.com/q/87353c66-0b0c-4319-a6e2-ae1970e60270/ https://minutesof.com/q/87353c66-0b0c-4319-a6e2-ae1970e60270/ “this crazy idea to tax unrealized capital gains and how that in and of itself is not only almost impossible to implement, but also would undermine the very incentive that entrepreneurs have to go create businesses.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:00:00 +0000 Gurley says Silicon Valley's political shift is about entrepreneurship policy, not personal tax rates. https://minutesof.com/q/d35227b0-45f5-453a-8a61-4dda40db5dbb/ https://minutesof.com/q/d35227b0-45f5-453a-8a61-4dda40db5dbb/ “Right? I do hear things around key policy areas that impact entrepreneurship that people care deeply about.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues Silicon Valley must actively engage in Washington to fight incumbent regulatory capture. https://minutesof.com/q/c6bb012e-afba-490d-83ba-71420c1256d7/ https://minutesof.com/q/c6bb012e-afba-490d-83ba-71420c1256d7/ “I think, that engagement by Silicon Valley to fight back against the incumbents who are trying to do the capture. Right?” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:00:00 +0000 Gurley says closed AI model companies must compete with frontier performance while Meta gives it away free. https://minutesof.com/q/1a3c7d28-5482-493f-b526-9c7b3c87b9ca/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a3c7d28-5482-493f-b526-9c7b3c87b9ca/ “If you're a closed model company, the question first is, okay, I'm going to have to compete and keep up with this frontier level competition. That's hard enough. It takes a lot of resources.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:00:00 +0000 Gurley reports Chinese consumers show high willingness to adopt autonomous driving despite inferior technology https://minutesof.com/q/3b68d5e9-0c98-45dd-a662-fbd79a7d6d58/ https://minutesof.com/q/3b68d5e9-0c98-45dd-a662-fbd79a7d6d58/ “she said she had some really lousy experiences in the cars, but she was blown away at the Chinese consumers' willingness to adopt the technology.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:00:00 +0000 Gurley says hyper-competition with every AI coding player having $400M can reduce venture returns despite mark https://minutesof.com/q/3393ed6a-9260-4daa-9764-d2347ce64ee5/ https://minutesof.com/q/3393ed6a-9260-4daa-9764-d2347ce64ee5/ “Having crazy money in the market is not necessarily consistent with creating positive return for your venture capital portfolio.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:24:05 +0000 Gurley questions whether AI CapEx spending is ahead of itself, citing Goldman and Sequoia research. https://minutesof.com/q/cdce91b6-49d4-463f-b95d-be9729abc4f8/ https://minutesof.com/q/cdce91b6-49d4-463f-b95d-be9729abc4f8/ “One, could the CapEx spend be ahead of itself? Which is what Sequoia mentioned and what the second piece of the Goldman piece is.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:24:05 +0000 Gurley suggests LLM models may have diminishing returns on spend, citing MIT professor and other experts. https://minutesof.com/q/857ffe78-4b2a-44ae-b0e8-bd75f85c4c8f/ https://minutesof.com/q/857ffe78-4b2a-44ae-b0e8-bd75f85c4c8f/ “Is LLM scaling exponential, linear, or will it diminish? And in addition to the MIT professor, I mean, there are a number of people that have been around these problems for a long time who that the LLM models will have diminishing return on spend.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:24:05 +0000 Gurley says acqui-hire deals like Adept and Inflection cannot possibly represent wins for venture capitalists. https://minutesof.com/q/eee6b9ba-2b6b-4c55-ae76-437dabea39ce/ https://minutesof.com/q/eee6b9ba-2b6b-4c55-ae76-437dabea39ce/ “There's no way that's a win for venture capitalists. Like, I'm sure venture capitalists try and spin it, and we heard some spin around inflection, but, you know, I, it's just not possible.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:24:05 +0000 Gurley notes Adept raised $415M and argues such acqui-hire structures cannot generate portfolio returns for VC https://minutesof.com/q/c7de09a2-6357-4949-b061-b8daff603e2b/ https://minutesof.com/q/c7de09a2-6357-4949-b061-b8daff603e2b/ “I mean, we need to be realistic. Like if you're a venture capitalist and every one of your deals turned into one of these weird human acqui hires with a licensed deal back, you're not going to generate a return for your portfolio. Like, it's best case, you're this company had raised $415,000,000” — BG2 Pod Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:24:05 +0000 Gurley cites claim that over 90% of NIH grants fund monetizable products versus preventative behavioral interv https://minutesof.com/q/acadbdb8-ed97-46d0-a57a-77bf86c9732b/ https://minutesof.com/q/acadbdb8-ed97-46d0-a57a-77bf86c9732b/ “over 90% of NIH grants go towards things that are potentially monetizable, so either a product or a drug, and that the NIH is less interested in funding things that might be just preventative behavior, like behavioral things, like what you eat or your diet or things that don't lead to monetization.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:24:05 +0000 Gurley argues U.S. may have created healthcare industrial complex focused on profit maximization over preventi https://minutesof.com/q/c4135138-08e1-41c5-b34f-f68e1afb805b/ https://minutesof.com/q/c4135138-08e1-41c5-b34f-f68e1afb805b/ “And we may have created a people talk about the military industrial complex, we may have created a healthcare industrial complex that really can't stop maximizing profitability and different ways of making money not focus necessarily on the lowest cost, best, most preventative process.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:24:05 +0000 Gurley reports Nvidia alone accounts for 5% of S&P 500 returns while 493 other companies contribute only 4%. https://minutesof.com/q/a68d0462-7e19-4c36-8a7d-2c12cb0921eb/ https://minutesof.com/q/a68d0462-7e19-4c36-8a7d-2c12cb0921eb/ “The other mag six are responsible for 5%. And then the other 493 companies in the S and P 500 are responsible for 4% of the 14% year to date returns.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 Gurley reports AI deals average $1 billion valuation and $120 million round size year to date. https://minutesof.com/q/27e4c9ca-967f-4c32-a9b3-4641027b3577/ https://minutesof.com/q/27e4c9ca-967f-4c32-a9b3-4641027b3577/ “Year to date, I think 200 deals, 22,000,000,000 of investment, average valuation, wait for it, $1,000,000,000. Right? Average round size, 120,000,000.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 Gurley says OpenAI executes faster than any company he's seen despite organizational turbulence. https://minutesof.com/q/feb8b7d0-6491-492f-8ca6-ecdcc0b6bebc/ https://minutesof.com/q/feb8b7d0-6491-492f-8ca6-ecdcc0b6bebc/ “To execute the way they have. True. Okay? Like, I got faster than any other company I've ever seen delivering great products in the market.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 Gurley argues trillion-dollar companies developing AGI should be accessible to retail investors, not just priv https://minutesof.com/q/9f3a9495-ebc4-4847-a836-b0191ffa24d7/ https://minutesof.com/q/9f3a9495-ebc4-4847-a836-b0191ffa24d7/ “I don't like the idea that you could have a company that could theoretically go to a trillion dollars in enterprise value, could theoretically develop AGI, and a retail investor never has a shot to invest in that company. I just don't think that's good for the structure of our markets.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 Gurley reports Trump proposed at Business Roundtable solving how to get companies more talented workers. https://minutesof.com/q/c5e6e907-04b4-48a3-81b1-1c39dd5deb19/ https://minutesof.com/q/c5e6e907-04b4-48a3-81b1-1c39dd5deb19/ “They said it was the first time they ever heard him say, and I gotta solve the problem for everybody in this room, how I get you more talented workers.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 Gurley reports Trump proposed automatic green cards for anyone completing a four-year US degree. https://minutesof.com/q/5328b159-6807-43ad-af58-33fcb6eb4356/ https://minutesof.com/q/5328b159-6807-43ad-af58-33fcb6eb4356/ “And he proposed something apparently at the roundtable. He said, anybody who comes here for a four year education completes their degree in The United States, we're gonna give them a green card.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 Gurley says excess capital prevented winner-take-most dynamics from developing profitably until capital dried https://minutesof.com/q/26a2f882-5241-4350-9fb4-50905c5b0327/ https://minutesof.com/q/26a2f882-5241-4350-9fb4-50905c5b0327/ “it slowed down and prevented the natural order of things. The 8020, the winner take most from developing in a profitable way.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 14:22:07 +0000 Gurley argues excess capital distorts company behavior and makes it difficult to stay efficient when all optio https://minutesof.com/q/3f55a815-cb79-4050-aa00-57bc41b27b0e/ https://minutesof.com/q/3f55a815-cb79-4050-aa00-57bc41b27b0e/ “It's not impossible, but it's very difficult to stay fit and efficient when you have a buffet of all options sitting in front of you and you can fund all of them.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 14:22:07 +0000 Gurley notes hyperscalers now spending $200 billion in total CapEx with questions about return on investment. https://minutesof.com/q/743c4b3d-d172-40cc-bd69-aa8649d5a14e/ https://minutesof.com/q/743c4b3d-d172-40cc-bd69-aa8649d5a14e/ “In fact, I think if people are gonna be critical of anything, a lot of people are looking at the total CapEx of the hyperscalers now at $200,000,000,000 and saying, when are you gonna get a return on the dollars that you're spending?” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 14:22:07 +0000 Gurley argues software deal slowdowns stem from uncertainty about AI bets rather than budget pressures. https://minutesof.com/q/87853343-dd7e-4e8e-ba0f-2a81a890a506/ https://minutesof.com/q/87853343-dd7e-4e8e-ba0f-2a81a890a506/ “Rather than budget pressures, what I really think you're seeing is the slowing down and the elongation of the big commits because people really need to make sure that they're betting on the future, not on the past.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 14:22:07 +0000 Gurley predicts headlines about death of software will appear silly in less than 24 months. https://minutesof.com/q/1f93a15e-86c5-4c0a-9944-9d4f2a02cade/ https://minutesof.com/q/1f93a15e-86c5-4c0a-9944-9d4f2a02cade/ “I suspect that these headlines, the end of software, the death of software, in I would argue less than twenty four months will appear to be silly.” — Bg2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 14:22:07 +0000 Gurley notes four non-Microsoft coding copilot companies raised over $200M each despite being only 18 months o https://minutesof.com/q/f18ae4cd-864c-4bf0-b328-98090bea616e/ https://minutesof.com/q/f18ae4cd-864c-4bf0-b328-98090bea616e/ “There are four companies in the coding co pilot space that are not named Microsoft that have raised over $200,000,000 each. And we're just these companies are all of a year and a half old.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 13:40:00 +0000 Gurley cites Sequoia's investments in Elon's companies at $50-100B range as departure from historic venture mo https://minutesof.com/q/57816d6e-5e9c-4f01-86fd-5f59baecc10f/ https://minutesof.com/q/57816d6e-5e9c-4f01-86fd-5f59baecc10f/ “I look at someone posted the just the investments Sequoia has made in Elon's companies, and they were rounds that were in the, you know, $506,100,000,000 dollar range, and there were three or four of them. And once again, just not not the historic venture capital model.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 13:40:00 +0000 Gurley criticizes investors earning 2% annual fees on $300-400M checks without taking board seats. https://minutesof.com/q/2aa4c945-0be4-4c2a-b6c1-5760586c792f/ https://minutesof.com/q/2aa4c945-0be4-4c2a-b6c1-5760586c792f/ “And for the listeners that may not know that 2 represents an annual management fee,” — BG2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 13:40:00 +0000 Gurley warns that Byrd founder took $50M out in private round before company went bankrupt. https://minutesof.com/q/5374aa55-62e0-4b68-afcb-9201c49f5bb9/ https://minutesof.com/q/5374aa55-62e0-4b68-afcb-9201c49f5bb9/ “Let let us not forget that the Byrd founder took out 50,000,000 in a private round, you know, and that company's now bankrupt, right?” — BG2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 13:40:00 +0000 Gurley highlights TSMC chairman publicly stating Sam Altman is too aggressive to believe. https://minutesof.com/q/5493dbf4-b8e6-42da-bd18-9fdf8dd9d0ee/ https://minutesof.com/q/5493dbf4-b8e6-42da-bd18-9fdf8dd9d0ee/ “There was a super interesting comment made by the new chairman of TSMC where he said, OpenAI, Sam Altman, is too aggressive for me to believe.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 13:40:00 +0000 Gurley notes 85% of CIOs increasing AI spend despite 92% having flat or declining budgets. https://minutesof.com/q/0c1499b8-363d-43ac-8683-1276298111e4/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c1499b8-363d-43ac-8683-1276298111e4/ “I think 8% of CIOs have a budget increase over 10%. So 92% don't. So think fixed, you know, near fixed budget. But 85% of them say they're aggressively increasing their spend on AI.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 13:40:00 +0000 Gurley observes the biggest AI doomers have the largest financial stakes in foundational models. https://minutesof.com/q/e3035ed9-a1ef-43dc-aec4-ddf0487b3dc3/ https://minutesof.com/q/e3035ed9-a1ef-43dc-aec4-ddf0487b3dc3/ “It's remarkably interesting that the biggest doomers are the ones that have the biggest financial stakes and the biggest foundational model.” — Forbes Tue, 04 Jun 2024 13:00:12 +0000 Gurley argues AI crimes are already illegal under existing laws, questioning need for new regulations. https://minutesof.com/q/5fc25346-6183-45ad-822f-b45bdec72880/ https://minutesof.com/q/5fc25346-6183-45ad-822f-b45bdec72880/ “If I defraud you with AI, it's still illegal as it would have been if I'd have done it with a phishing scam before AI. And so there why do we need new laws?” — Forbes Tue, 04 Jun 2024 13:00:12 +0000 Gurley states regulation favors incumbents and government should not pick AI winners now. https://minutesof.com/q/bfba2390-afed-4183-a10e-768810893e8b/ https://minutesof.com/q/bfba2390-afed-4183-a10e-768810893e8b/ “Regulation is the friend of the incumbent. It's not time for the government to start picking winners.” — Forbes Tue, 04 Jun 2024 13:00:12 +0000 Gurley contrasts AI founders lobbying Washington and funding super PACs with his twenty-five years without doi https://minutesof.com/q/d374bd8b-b5e7-4899-bb54-611a16fdfb35/ https://minutesof.com/q/d374bd8b-b5e7-4899-bb54-611a16fdfb35/ “I've spent twenty five years in this business and and not had to go kowtow to Washington to go to go placate, you know, senators and congressmen.” — Forbes Tue, 04 Jun 2024 13:00:12 +0000 Gurley calls AI founders' government engagement a horrible precedent for future technology waves in venture ca https://minutesof.com/q/cd9c9bf4-cd56-48a1-87eb-09439226177d/ https://minutesof.com/q/cd9c9bf4-cd56-48a1-87eb-09439226177d/ “I think it'd just be a horrible step for the venture industry for this to be the first move when any new wave comes along is for people to run and become friends with the government and try and lock in their winners.” — Forbes Tue, 04 Jun 2024 13:00:12 +0000 Gurley argues deglobalization is highly inflationary and makes US companies less competitive, not more. https://minutesof.com/q/934b2e5a-39a7-47e5-85fa-dae362b0bd56/ https://minutesof.com/q/934b2e5a-39a7-47e5-85fa-dae362b0bd56/ “Like, this is just, you know, deglobalization, highly inflationary, and will make our companies less competitive, not more.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 16 May 2024 19:31:21 +0000 Gurley says entrepreneurs design with cutting-edge AI models but switch to cheaper versions for 20x savings. https://minutesof.com/q/df8e3ee3-10a7-4b44-a6e3-779fbc28873c/ https://minutesof.com/q/df8e3ee3-10a7-4b44-a6e3-779fbc28873c/ “It's like 20x differential. And when I talk to our entrepreneurs that are using these models, they might design with the cutting edge model, but they all back off to the affordable models” — BG2 Pod Thu, 16 May 2024 19:31:21 +0000 Gurley expresses shock at Senate AI document recommending $32 billion annual spending for AI. https://minutesof.com/q/9d1bbb42-a7c4-452c-8f74-df1d41f90a4a/ https://minutesof.com/q/9d1bbb42-a7c4-452c-8f74-df1d41f90a4a/ “The big shocker for me was it recommended spending $32,000,000,000 a year. And I didn't even know that was on the table.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 16 May 2024 19:31:21 +0000 Gurley compares proposed $32B AI spending to NIH's $40B budget and NSF's $9B. https://minutesof.com/q/8d0854b5-b169-4e89-8ab9-c7346c240343/ https://minutesof.com/q/8d0854b5-b169-4e89-8ab9-c7346c240343/ “The National Science Foundation is nine down from 10. So 49, you're going to start the AI foundation or federation or whatever it is, institute at 32,000,000,000 a year.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 16 May 2024 19:31:21 +0000 Gurley questions moral basis of protecting $40/hour Iowa workers versus $15/hour Mexican workers. https://minutesof.com/q/55977cdb-2c98-464f-b8bc-42eba835d3c9/ https://minutesof.com/q/55977cdb-2c98-464f-b8bc-42eba835d3c9/ “it's unclear to me why a worker in Iowa needs $40 an hour if there's a worker in Mexico that's willing to bust his ass for 15.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 16 May 2024 19:31:21 +0000 Gurley notes Zillow had exited iBuying before he returned to the company https://minutesof.com/q/7f9ba262-567e-4b24-8251-3d6506ca9702/ https://minutesof.com/q/7f9ba262-567e-4b24-8251-3d6506ca9702/ “They had the the the kind of detour into home buying or iBuying, which is refreshing. They had exited by the time I came back. So, yeah. So there's a lot going on.” — Qualia Wed, 01 May 2024 17:09:06 +0000 Gurley says healthcare startups trying to monetize end up reinforcing bad system dynamics instead of changing https://minutesof.com/q/2f6d9efd-07a4-41e2-97c4-e8290a8d6361/ https://minutesof.com/q/2f6d9efd-07a4-41e2-97c4-e8290a8d6361/ “And then and then some of them end up in a place where they're actually reinforcing the bad stuff, you know, and making it worse.” — Qualia Wed, 01 May 2024 17:09:06 +0000 Gurley questions whether NAR-created real estate contracts were designed to help consumers https://minutesof.com/q/e876f454-09a6-44d0-840d-588d94f172b3/ https://minutesof.com/q/e876f454-09a6-44d0-840d-588d94f172b3/ “Was that document created to aid the consumer in any way whatsoever? Was that the objective function of the way that document was created? Do you have” — Qualia Wed, 01 May 2024 17:09:06 +0000 Gurley says NAR real estate contracts protect realtors not consumers with excessive signing requirements https://minutesof.com/q/4d6ba47b-9dbf-41cc-b914-0666deb0b9ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/4d6ba47b-9dbf-41cc-b914-0666deb0b9ed/ “Yeah. I say hell no. No. No. Like, that document was created to protect the realtor and that NAR created it.” — Qualia Wed, 01 May 2024 17:09:06 +0000 Gurley describes Matt Cohler's concept of remote control for your life with Uber as one-click ride example https://minutesof.com/q/4cb0be7b-8493-46f0-b365-c3be9a0bdc6c/ https://minutesof.com/q/4cb0be7b-8493-46f0-b365-c3be9a0bdc6c/ “And my my partner, Matt Cola, used to call this the remote control for your life. And we would talk about Uber as a one click ride.” — Qualia Wed, 01 May 2024 17:09:06 +0000 Gurley predicted black car marketplace would work better than taxi due to less friction before finding Uber https://minutesof.com/q/709fd42c-9df4-4490-99a0-edfa9e399043/ https://minutesof.com/q/709fd42c-9df4-4490-99a0-edfa9e399043/ “Because there's going to be less friction and we're going to be able to use the tools that entrepreneurs know how to use to be successful.” — Qualia Wed, 01 May 2024 17:09:06 +0000 Gurley says venture firms incrementally adopted risk like boiled frog before reaching iBuying extremes https://minutesof.com/q/e426efef-5030-48ef-b82c-14d92efec157/ https://minutesof.com/q/e426efef-5030-48ef-b82c-14d92efec157/ “And so people adopt incremental risk with the whole boiled frog metaphor without kinda realizing they're doing it.” — Qualia Wed, 01 May 2024 17:09:06 +0000 Gurley says the $20 subscription model is gone now that Meta AI is free and ad-supported models are coming. https://minutesof.com/q/d85290fd-7fe1-4754-b22a-3652d806253c/ https://minutesof.com/q/d85290fd-7fe1-4754-b22a-3652d806253c/ “I think, Perplexity claiming they're going to have an ad portion and OpenAI hinting at that, at least for the time being, I think the $20 concept is gone.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 29 Apr 2024 21:09:39 +0000 Gurley suggests personal memory features could potentially revive paid AI subscription models. https://minutesof.com/q/77003758-ab00-409c-9da0-e47fce7ac2c0/ https://minutesof.com/q/77003758-ab00-409c-9da0-e47fce7ac2c0/ “If some crazy feature comes along, you know, we've talked about personal memory, maybe that comes back.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 29 Apr 2024 21:09:39 +0000 Gurley contrasts Zuckerberg's detailed transparency with platitudes from Dario and Sam about AI's future impac https://minutesof.com/q/db2a5108-ca94-4be8-bd95-5f18c64efd7f/ https://minutesof.com/q/db2a5108-ca94-4be8-bd95-5f18c64efd7f/ “Dario and Sam talk in these high level platitudes about how this stuff's gonna cure cancer and we're all gonna not have to work anymore. And Zuck was down in the weeds in the meet.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 29 Apr 2024 21:09:39 +0000 Gurley says AI foundational models no longer qualify as startup market due to massive capital and big company https://minutesof.com/q/a7faf375-298c-4968-989e-fe2413fd4467/ https://minutesof.com/q/a7faf375-298c-4968-989e-fe2413fd4467/ “It's already evolved to a point that's very similar to where Uber, Lyft and DoorDash ended up, where there's just so much money moving around that I really don't even think about it as a startup market anymore.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley says AI foundational models are no longer a startup market, with big company involvement being dangerou https://minutesof.com/q/b300a6e9-c493-458b-90b1-ccb2d675cb3f/ https://minutesof.com/q/b300a6e9-c493-458b-90b1-ccb2d675cb3f/ “If you wanted to be accurate, non consensus in a way around these, part of it ties into the big guys being interested in what they're doing with their own balance sheet to reinforce this, which I consider to be remarkably dangerous and unhealthy.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley says initial LLM versions are structurally flawed around personal memory and RAG approaches don't solve https://minutesof.com/q/372ac5d4-e951-48c3-9f6a-25e4388b844d/ https://minutesof.com/q/372ac5d4-e951-48c3-9f6a-25e4388b844d/ “One quick thing, I do think that the initial versions of these models are structurally flawed around providing personal memory and allowing someone to become dependent on one of these things.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues initial LLM versions are structurally flawed around personal memory and RAG approaches don't sol https://minutesof.com/q/c3744cea-4801-46a1-bab6-6d2282aa5938/ https://minutesof.com/q/c3744cea-4801-46a1-bab6-6d2282aa5938/ “I do think that the initial versions of these models are structurally flawed around providing personal memory and allowing someone to become dependent on one of these things.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley says personalized foundational models that can retune for individuals could wildly change AI direction. https://minutesof.com/q/2d1bf244-c91e-4b66-a48c-64df45cbe6eb/ https://minutesof.com/q/2d1bf244-c91e-4b66-a48c-64df45cbe6eb/ “Any of that stuff could create a wildly new direction than what we have today.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley tests marketplace strength by asking if value to one side grows exponentially as the other side scales. https://minutesof.com/q/80dca9f5-e119-4b87-9c83-6d615716b0b0/ https://minutesof.com/q/80dca9f5-e119-4b87-9c83-6d615716b0b0/ “When I push entrepreneurs to think about this and it gets to your increasing marginal utility, but I just say, as you penetrate a supplier base, one side of a marketplace, whatever, is the value proposition to the other side going up? And ideally, it would be going up exponentially, which is super hard.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues increasing returns vary in strength, with some linear and some exponential, forming a scale of n https://minutesof.com/q/060ae2c0-40b0-4edf-ba65-806ffed62d77/ https://minutesof.com/q/060ae2c0-40b0-4edf-ba65-806ffed62d77/ “It's arguable there are levels of increasing returns. Like, you could come up with some kind of scale or index because some of them are more linear and some of them can go exponential.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley cites CrowdStrike as example of network effects in enterprise security through shared threat intelligen https://minutesof.com/q/961e648a-662c-46eb-8613-54c7bf600ac8/ https://minutesof.com/q/961e648a-662c-46eb-8613-54c7bf600ac8/ “But they posted a memo four years ago titled the CrowdStrike Security Cloud Network Effect.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley explains CrowdStrike's network effect where threat-sharing makes the largest security network most valu https://minutesof.com/q/d4a70966-50f8-49df-8b77-5537c0a1ec75/ https://minutesof.com/q/d4a70966-50f8-49df-8b77-5537c0a1ec75/ “the way that it worked for them and the way that the marginal customer ends up with more utility is if the threats are shared across a network, then if you belong to the biggest network, then you get the shared learning of everyone in that network, which lowers your threat exposure.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley questions why drug patents get seventeen years of protection while software patents are difficult to ob https://minutesof.com/q/e0d7fb63-5afe-4e30-8df7-0790ca189093/ https://minutesof.com/q/e0d7fb63-5afe-4e30-8df7-0790ca189093/ “I don't know that seventeen years makes any sense whatsoever and why that industry gets protected down to a very minute detail of innovation, whereas it's very hard to have a software patent.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues regulatory capture worsens as country ages because people learn to influence Washington over lon https://minutesof.com/q/43038c3e-931c-4be1-8516-0d5d485626b8/ https://minutesof.com/q/43038c3e-931c-4be1-8516-0d5d485626b8/ “The more people hang around Washington for a very long period of time, they just learn how to influence it.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley cites Boeing as example of regulatory coziness problem in industries with longest regulatory history. https://minutesof.com/q/b3ce4c20-78b7-4a53-94fa-f0545424528b/ https://minutesof.com/q/b3ce4c20-78b7-4a53-94fa-f0545424528b/ “There's a lot of talk about Boeing these days and a lack of competition and coziness with regulators. And it's a really big problem in the industries that have been around the longest.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues autocratic China has a massive advantage over the U.S. by avoiding layered regulatory constraint https://minutesof.com/q/e790ceb0-d175-41d4-b5d4-7b9d596d4862/ https://minutesof.com/q/e790ceb0-d175-41d4-b5d4-7b9d596d4862/ “It's likely a massive advantage for China where a more autocratic government can just decide, okay, we're gonna start doing things a new way.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley says China has massive advantage clearing regulatory decks permanently while US only grants exceptions https://minutesof.com/q/8e773658-d546-4a55-9ae5-82207abc7c7f/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e773658-d546-4a55-9ae5-82207abc7c7f/ “This is where I think China has a massive advantage. They could just clear the decks for good for every project going forward. Whereas we're now making exceptions maybe with the TSMC plant in Arizona.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley says venture capital structurally sucks due to low entry barriers and high exit barriers. https://minutesof.com/q/e9ec0586-f96d-4c2e-9b61-2f2683a1776b/ https://minutesof.com/q/e9ec0586-f96d-4c2e-9b61-2f2683a1776b/ “There's high competition. But the big problem, and this is structural, is there's low barriers to entry and high barriers to exit.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley says venture industry is structurally flawed on cyclicality and fixing it requires rewriting standard L https://minutesof.com/q/c8817200-fb1e-452d-be22-fceea7612169/ https://minutesof.com/q/c8817200-fb1e-452d-be22-fceea7612169/ “You'd have to rewrite the standard GPLP agreement, I think. I'll spend more time thinking about that later, but it is structurally flawed, I think, from a cyclicality standpoint.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley notes public company count has shrunk by almost half, changing venture landscape. https://minutesof.com/q/182ca37e-9d3e-4dbe-a6f7-5f66cd06a02a/ https://minutesof.com/q/182ca37e-9d3e-4dbe-a6f7-5f66cd06a02a/ “the number of public companies has shrunk dramatically. And Michael's written about this, but we've gone, I think, almost half. Is that right, Michael?” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley says SEC's well-intentioned response to fewer IPOs risks institutionalizing private investing for avera https://minutesof.com/q/7a9dc4a7-07e2-4aa6-b0db-f5f89af71061/ https://minutesof.com/q/7a9dc4a7-07e2-4aa6-b0db-f5f89af71061/ “I personally don't think it's healthy because a minute that happens and everyone realizes that there's less companies going public and companies staying private longer, then the SEC, I think in a well intentioned way goes, oh my god. The average investor's missing out on this asset class.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley warns SEC's well-intentioned response to fewer IPOs—institutionalizing private company investing—will f https://minutesof.com/q/26b239e6-257a-4921-9804-5795b26b9225/ https://minutesof.com/q/26b239e6-257a-4921-9804-5795b26b9225/ “But what they wanna do to fix it is then some kinda institutionalized investing in private companies, which I think will fail massively.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley says Wall Street became a big company game after four horsemen banks specializing in small IPOs disappe https://minutesof.com/q/cbb7ab31-2052-451b-8e5c-039ff72b89b2/ https://minutesof.com/q/cbb7ab31-2052-451b-8e5c-039ff72b89b2/ “The big banks have no interest in a small IPO. Years ago, there were these banks called the four horsemen, which were banks that just specialized in small IPOs,” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley says billion-dollar revenue threshold for IPOs fundamentally changes venture game and reduces accessibi https://minutesof.com/q/d8e48916-e6bf-4e12-8ada-a9ddba5ab7a6/ https://minutesof.com/q/d8e48916-e6bf-4e12-8ada-a9ddba5ab7a6/ “Anyone can start a company that can go public. If you have to get to a billion in revenue, it's just it's a totally different game.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley posed question about how player behavior changes when multiple competitors understand increasing return https://minutesof.com/q/0f693abc-7efe-457e-9260-6af19f3a948e/ https://minutesof.com/q/0f693abc-7efe-457e-9260-6af19f3a948e/ “I said to Michael one time, what if there were multiple players in an increasing returns game and they knew what the outcome was gonna look like? How would it affect their behavior?” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley suggests the Magnificent Seven's dominance may stem from all players now understanding network effects https://minutesof.com/q/e7c90608-1736-448a-be2e-268cfcae2151/ https://minutesof.com/q/e7c90608-1736-448a-be2e-268cfcae2151/ “maybe the reason the magnificent seven exists, maybe the reason why those price wars went to where they did is just everyone got educated.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley says foundational model companies burning $100-200M yearly cannot possibly represent high quality capit https://minutesof.com/q/0c0919e4-1f85-43b9-a386-96bb682fb306/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c0919e4-1f85-43b9-a386-96bb682fb306/ “100,000,000 a year? 200,000,000 a year? There's no way that's high quality capital allocation from my point of view.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues foundational AI model companies burning $100-200M annually represents poor capital allocation bu https://minutesof.com/q/682c9fbf-482e-4076-926a-e1e64b4e24c5/ https://minutesof.com/q/682c9fbf-482e-4076-926a-e1e64b4e24c5/ “100,000,000 a year? 200,000,000 a year? There's no way that's high quality capital allocation from my point of view. There's no chance. But maybe they don't have the alternative.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley calls foundational model companies' hundred-million-dollar annual burn rates poor capital allocation bu https://minutesof.com/q/e98656f5-e49e-4765-ad64-d71113e105f4/ https://minutesof.com/q/e98656f5-e49e-4765-ad64-d71113e105f4/ “200,000,000 a year? There's no way that's high quality capital allocation from my point of view. There's no chance. But maybe they don't have the alternative.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues venture capital patterns decay, citing how Intuit bias caused VCs to miss Shopify. https://minutesof.com/q/a74e745b-28ef-42d2-a857-39d19efeab74/ https://minutesof.com/q/a74e745b-28ef-42d2-a857-39d19efeab74/ “I think the patterns have a half life and they decay. Or I saw Toby from Shopify was talking about the VCs passing on them.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley admits pattern recognition decays; anti-small-business bias from Intuit caused VCs to miss HubSpot, Sho https://minutesof.com/q/3b7ece32-d7eb-4e7f-8905-be1a012ec459/ https://minutesof.com/q/3b7ece32-d7eb-4e7f-8905-be1a012ec459/ “And so you develop this anti small business mindset, which keeps you out of HubSpot and Shopify and Twilio.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley admits pattern recognition led VCs to miss HubSpot, Shopify, and Twilio due to anti-small-business bias https://minutesof.com/q/d497c52b-1752-4e58-8b3a-1c22a6659054/ https://minutesof.com/q/d497c52b-1752-4e58-8b3a-1c22a6659054/ “And so you develop this anti small business mindset, which keeps you out of HubSpot and Shopify and Twilio. Then miss massive amounts.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 Gurley says vast majority of IPOs concentrated in four or five firms, suggests need for banks dedicated to sma https://minutesof.com/q/f75bb273-65b5-4aec-b915-c3fb1cdb951a/ https://minutesof.com/q/f75bb273-65b5-4aec-b915-c3fb1cdb951a/ “I found some data which we can put up, like the vast majority of IPOs are being underwritten by like four or five firms.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 18 Apr 2024 17:23:12 +0000 Gurley argues Waymo faces unsolvable dilemma: building fleet to average demand disappoints peak users, buildin https://minutesof.com/q/3d5ca838-dbb0-4407-8b34-18ee9abb14f9/ https://minutesof.com/q/3d5ca838-dbb0-4407-8b34-18ee9abb14f9/ “And if you build it to peak, you're gonna have a bunch of very, very, very expensive CapEx sitting around doing nothing mostly.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 18 Apr 2024 17:23:12 +0000 Gurley challenges Waymo advocates to publish twenty-year financial projections showing how owned robotaxi flee https://minutesof.com/q/c1dcb64d-025e-49b8-91e4-fbcfa495ed9f/ https://minutesof.com/q/c1dcb64d-025e-49b8-91e4-fbcfa495ed9f/ “Let's build a public Google Sheet of the twenty year financial statements for this thing, and let's put it out there in the public.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 18 Apr 2024 17:23:12 +0000 Gurley argues LLMs alone won't be winners without durable differentiation enabling monopoly-like pricing. https://minutesof.com/q/29c66e90-0fe9-4d7b-b185-5d0e946452f8/ https://minutesof.com/q/29c66e90-0fe9-4d7b-b185-5d0e946452f8/ “I'm not sure that LLMs, like, if that's all you have going for you, I'm not sure that's going to be the winner.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 04 Apr 2024 17:20:29 +0000 Gurley says only frontier AI models are defensible while non-frontier models become fast depreciating assets. https://minutesof.com/q/32ff09ac-bf6e-4424-a1f9-51cbc432646a/ https://minutesof.com/q/32ff09ac-bf6e-4424-a1f9-51cbc432646a/ “But if you're not on the frontier, man, it seems that these are gonna be really fast depreciating assets” — BG2 Pod Thu, 04 Apr 2024 17:20:29 +0000 Gurley says China has 300 nuclear plants in development versus zero in US, with 7-10 year build cycles. https://minutesof.com/q/4612e543-cda9-44ba-91c3-bd9da9abd61c/ https://minutesof.com/q/4612e543-cda9-44ba-91c3-bd9da9abd61c/ “They have over 300 plants currently either being built or in development. We have zero, zero plants being built, I think 13 plants that are proposed, according to this data that we have here.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 04 Apr 2024 17:20:29 +0000 Gurley cites Microsoft opening a data center every three days, with data centers consuming nearly 10% of US el https://minutesof.com/q/baa29cab-465a-4ddf-9bf6-646b3345daff/ https://minutesof.com/q/baa29cab-465a-4ddf-9bf6-646b3345daff/ “Microsoft alone's opening opening a new data center globally every three days. These power hungry operations will together consume more than 480 terawatts hours of electricity or almost a tenth of US demand.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 04 Apr 2024 17:20:29 +0000 Gurley explains a large investor pushed for zero-based RSUs believing one RSU equals 2.5-3 options to reduce d https://minutesof.com/q/a9f03287-e26c-4ff5-9c1e-091efbb06f75/ https://minutesof.com/q/a9f03287-e26c-4ff5-9c1e-091efbb06f75/ “This particular investor in this very large public Internet company felt that if they move to zero based RSUs from options, and this gets into a technical detail around Black Shoals, that, you know, there's an argument from Black Shoals that a single RSU is worth about two and a half or three options.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Mar 2024 21:32:49 +0000 Gurley argues zero-based RSUs allow management to capture 80% value while shareholders lose 20%, showing misal https://minutesof.com/q/0bb5fb26-c655-4bc2-9a76-56adf4133f5c/ https://minutesof.com/q/0bb5fb26-c655-4bc2-9a76-56adf4133f5c/ “And here's where we get into questions of alignment with shareholders, because you could theoretically have a management team that leads a company, you know, over a year to a 20% decline and pick up 80% of the value of their equity award.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Mar 2024 21:32:49 +0000 Gurley notes Microsoft hands out $11 billion annually in RSUs, giving them advantage in recruiting AI talent. https://minutesof.com/q/33759596-2b57-40fb-b3bd-4c4506972150/ https://minutesof.com/q/33759596-2b57-40fb-b3bd-4c4506972150/ “So that's over 11,000,000,000 a year. And this morning we woke up and read about them taking some employees from a hot AI company in the valley.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Mar 2024 21:32:49 +0000 Gurley highlights Netflix's unique compensation letting employees choose between options or cash with no RSUs. https://minutesof.com/q/7edc7d31-cee1-4303-a5d5-32489e3bede3/ https://minutesof.com/q/7edc7d31-cee1-4303-a5d5-32489e3bede3/ “Netflix today has a remarkably unique compensation structure. No one does anything like them. But today, if you're an employee, you get to choose either options or cash.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Mar 2024 21:32:49 +0000 Gurley calls Inflection's implosion after Greylock's $1 billion pre-money round a warning sign for AI valuatio https://minutesof.com/q/051b652e-7ebb-4925-b84e-2c6494b40f07/ https://minutesof.com/q/051b652e-7ebb-4925-b84e-2c6494b40f07/ “Right? And this is a warning sign that you can't just pay any price for any deal in the AI sector and get paid.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Mar 2024 21:32:49 +0000 Gurley says LLM switching costs rate around two out of 100, showing extremely high promiscuity among models. https://minutesof.com/q/d4b98aac-1eff-4456-a957-ab2224e6fc2b/ https://minutesof.com/q/d4b98aac-1eff-4456-a957-ab2224e6fc2b/ “And the per promiscuity Mhmm. Is unbelievably high. Another way of saying that, one one of the things that leads to high valuation multiples is switching cost.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Mar 2024 21:32:49 +0000 Gurley says Tesla replaced coded self-driving with neural network using driver videos as input and controls as https://minutesof.com/q/0095dec9-4639-4988-8110-944d679ce57e/ https://minutesof.com/q/0095dec9-4639-4988-8110-944d679ce57e/ “What we learned this week is that they've completely tossed all of that out and gone with a neural network model where they're uploading videos from their best drivers.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:29:00 +0000 Gurley says big AI model companies and Vinod Khosla openly advocated for making open source illegal or blocked https://minutesof.com/q/66e81897-a081-4291-9aa7-7a2c6d0f576c/ https://minutesof.com/q/66e81897-a081-4291-9aa7-7a2c6d0f576c/ “And then Vinod started basically saying that literally, like, yes, we should block open source.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:29:00 +0000 Gurley says lawyers in Delaware derivative suit against Tesla are asking for five to six billion dollars in pa https://minutesof.com/q/b7532e35-fef9-457b-999b-eecea57cb9bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/b7532e35-fef9-457b-999b-eecea57cb9bc/ “One one data point you you left out, which came up recently, is the lawyers that that pursued this case are asking for 5 or $6,000,000,000 in payment.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:29:00 +0000 Gurley questions how a plaintiff with only nine shares can justify multibillion-dollar lawyer fees in Delaware https://minutesof.com/q/36141374-91f9-49d3-92f1-9fab5aeea978/ https://minutesof.com/q/36141374-91f9-49d3-92f1-9fab5aeea978/ “So how could how could a client with nine shares lead to a multibillion dollar award to a lawyer?” — BG2 Pod Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:29:00 +0000 Gurley says he would offer Musk's compensation package to any CEO and would buy stock in companies using simil https://minutesof.com/q/9542a103-9625-4b5d-bdb6-bb93b84c7d07/ https://minutesof.com/q/9542a103-9625-4b5d-bdb6-bb93b84c7d07/ “I would also say if any other CEO took a package like this, I would in a public company, I would be very encouraged to consider buying a lot of it.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:29:00 +0000 Gurley says AI leaders admit memory is a hard problem requiring expensive nightly retraining per user. https://minutesof.com/q/87618e7f-cbf2-46df-b02f-219e98fe2a29/ https://minutesof.com/q/87618e7f-cbf2-46df-b02f-219e98fe2a29/ “If you talk to the people that are at the tops of these firms and you say, hey, why can't this thing remember everything I want? And they go, oh, that's a hard problem.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:20:31 +0000 Gurley argues AI memory creates switching costs that lock users in to whichever platform solves it first. https://minutesof.com/q/35820014-6a20-4355-a535-0f39958be7b8/ https://minutesof.com/q/35820014-6a20-4355-a535-0f39958be7b8/ “I start relying on one of these things as my memory and I don't have a way to pull that out and jump to something else, I'm stuck. Yes. Like I am hooked, locked, stuck.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:20:31 +0000 Gurley calls the Altman-Masa plan to compete with Nvidia radical given AMD and others have decades head start. https://minutesof.com/q/12fdb8ce-abba-43a5-aa2b-5c00b3b71edf/ https://minutesof.com/q/12fdb8ce-abba-43a5-aa2b-5c00b3b71edf/ “There are already people competing with Nvidia. AMD's competing with Like, there are other people that have somewhat of a head start. Like decades.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:20:31 +0000 Gurley cites Morris Chang arguing Taiwan's chip competitiveness stems from labor model incompatible with US no https://minutesof.com/q/6cb6c561-aba9-4ad6-bc5b-dd31fc96c71f/ https://minutesof.com/q/6cb6c561-aba9-4ad6-bc5b-dd31fc96c71f/ “Morris makes the point that the reason Taiwan is competitive has to do with the labor model that exists there and the type of work people are willing to do and your ability to retain them. And he walks through his history of hiring in Texas and other parts of” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:20:31 +0000 Gurley says Morris Chang identifies Vietnam or India as likely disruptors, not advanced economies like the US. https://minutesof.com/q/8eae8456-74b2-457f-b741-9adb2d3105b8/ https://minutesof.com/q/8eae8456-74b2-457f-b741-9adb2d3105b8/ “And his says the country must more likely to disrupt Taiwan would be Vietnam or India, Not an advanced culture.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:20:31 +0000 Gurley says Silicon Valley rushes to price-to-revenue multiples because it's the crudest, least intelligent va https://minutesof.com/q/cd3e5ff6-4c65-4083-a0a4-eb3c90fc95d4/ https://minutesof.com/q/cd3e5ff6-4c65-4083-a0a4-eb3c90fc95d4/ “I've always said that Silicon Valley has the crudest kind of least intelligent view of valuation. They always rush to price to revenue because it's easy and because quite frankly, it's easier to be optimistic.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 Gurley argues Google's cage-match ad model generates far higher revenue than transactional models could achiev https://minutesof.com/q/10351f6d-b69b-4e5e-87a2-34354eb9bdf5/ https://minutesof.com/q/10351f6d-b69b-4e5e-87a2-34354eb9bdf5/ “Their business model is to throw their customers in a cage match and let them compete with one other to the death.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 Gurley argues Google lacks the internal culture to partner in win-win ways due to their cage-match business mo https://minutesof.com/q/505da922-466f-490a-9ebf-f63111b147bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/505da922-466f-490a-9ebf-f63111b147bc/ “In addition to everything I brought up, because their core business model is to throw their customers in a cage match, they don't they don't have the culture internally to partner in a friendly win win way.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 Gurley invokes Spielberg's Jaws example to suggest AI expectations may exceed what can actually be delivered. https://minutesof.com/q/60fe04c6-465b-4069-9fbb-afc84ae693f8/ https://minutesof.com/q/60fe04c6-465b-4069-9fbb-afc84ae693f8/ “I saw this inner great interview once with Spielberg when he was talking about Jaws. And he said, you know, I didn't show the shark until like 75% of the way through this thing.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 Gurley identifies long-term memory as a major unsolved problem preventing AI from becoming true personal assis https://minutesof.com/q/132863e0-30a1-451e-8a59-14170cd85857/ https://minutesof.com/q/132863e0-30a1-451e-8a59-14170cd85857/ “I do think this memory issue is a big, big deal, at least on the consumer side. So none of the major contenders today can remember who you are because it would require them.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 Gurley explains AI memory requires retraining models per person, creating an economically unsustainable struct https://minutesof.com/q/b6ddd3b6-4831-444b-b7ce-9d242ff2ad28/ https://minutesof.com/q/b6ddd3b6-4831-444b-b7ce-9d242ff2ad28/ “And of course that makes no sense economically. So it's actually a huge structural problem. There are complaints, you know, in Reddit about Character AI on this front.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 Gurley says cloud credit investments are definitively low quality revenue despite auditor approval. https://minutesof.com/q/058c7bb2-14bb-4dc1-9c86-421ab4a8c3ca/ https://minutesof.com/q/058c7bb2-14bb-4dc1-9c86-421ab4a8c3ca/ “From the big company players' side, I would just say definitively, this could get me in trouble, but This is flat out low quality revenue.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:07:19 +0000 Gurley says OpenAI only exists because Google's attention mechanism was open-sourced, not patented. https://minutesof.com/q/8602d0e8-4864-49c2-a2ce-2265188f252b/ https://minutesof.com/q/8602d0e8-4864-49c2-a2ce-2265188f252b/ “OpenAI doesn't exist today if that's patented and controlled. There's it just doesn't, which is another irony around this open source argument because they've been infringed from massively from a major but the idea of being shared, and this is also why I'm such a massive open source proponent” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:07:19 +0000 Gurley argues cloud credits given as AI investments create low quality revenue for big tech companies despite https://minutesof.com/q/81187ebc-065e-449e-9917-627230fa3672/ https://minutesof.com/q/81187ebc-065e-449e-9917-627230fa3672/ “From the big company players' side, I would just say definitively, this could get me in trouble, but this is low quality revenue.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley says cloud credits given as investments create low quality revenue despite auditor approval. https://minutesof.com/q/a5334162-13a4-4139-a95c-a70c324c8b53/ https://minutesof.com/q/a5334162-13a4-4139-a95c-a70c324c8b53/ “Like this is flat out low quality revenue and I'm certain that they've got their auditor to sign off on it.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley says cloud credit investments use balance sheet to drive income statement, which should be prohibited. https://minutesof.com/q/dc9b98ff-02dd-478f-b033-931fe6c72c16/ https://minutesof.com/q/dc9b98ff-02dd-478f-b033-931fe6c72c16/ “Well, yeah. I mean, a big skeptic would say you're using your balance sheet to drive your income statement, which should be a no no.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley uses hypothetical Ultra Hosting Company to illustrate how credits-as-investment creates revenue without https://minutesof.com/q/6a87e9b1-ee74-4f28-940d-9207294b2f93/ https://minutesof.com/q/6a87e9b1-ee74-4f28-940d-9207294b2f93/ “They built a big server farm and their only customers they have are companies that they went out and gave credits away to as a form of investment.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley criticizes large LLM players for attacking open source and lobbying regulators against it. https://minutesof.com/q/88e2d70b-c44d-4ba4-ae3b-c9ef0fdb90b7/ https://minutesof.com/q/88e2d70b-c44d-4ba4-ae3b-c9ef0fdb90b7/ “And for me, it's been a sad reality that some of the larger LLM players have literally attacked open source directly and are telling regulators to try and disable it.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley says large LLM companies attacking open source through regulators is unprecedented and makes him skepti https://minutesof.com/q/88381c07-a00f-4e1a-974f-30cf12e8f3ac/ https://minutesof.com/q/88381c07-a00f-4e1a-974f-30cf12e8f3ac/ “it's been a sad reality that some of the larger LLM players have literally attacked open source directly and are telling regulators to try and disable it.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley cites AI specialist suggesting data exhaustion may limit LLM scaling, not just parameter count. https://minutesof.com/q/9354b7cd-a74e-4029-b4fc-96fd9b14a07e/ https://minutesof.com/q/9354b7cd-a74e-4029-b4fc-96fd9b14a07e/ “And then a very smart, I was having a conversation with Melanie Mitchell from the Santa Fe Institute, who's a very smart AI specialist, and she thinks data may be what causes the asymptote.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley notes 800 startup shutdowns per year are happening quietly with minimal media coverage unlike previous https://minutesof.com/q/13b957c2-7997-44fc-887d-26643e23c31f/ https://minutesof.com/q/13b957c2-7997-44fc-887d-26643e23c31f/ “For the most part, I guess I guess with the election and Ukraine and Gaza, like, there's so much going on that, that maybe, you know, people just don't give a shit.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley criticizes founders obsessed with clearing their last round valuation when raising new capital. https://minutesof.com/q/59d40573-9077-4a2a-8ba7-7dbc17de95d2/ https://minutesof.com/q/59d40573-9077-4a2a-8ba7-7dbc17de95d2/ “Yeah. People get overly, focused on this last round valuation thing. Like, it is I can't tell you how many founders I've had a conversation with where it's clear the number one objective in their function about the next financing is to clear the bar of the last round. And it just shouldn't matter that much.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley criticizes board members for relying on price-to-revenue multiples, calling it one of the most naive va https://minutesof.com/q/0a229c1d-848a-4d66-88ce-b009c9b13e94/ https://minutesof.com/q/0a229c1d-848a-4d66-88ce-b009c9b13e94/ “I might point them to my one of my favorite blog posts, keys to the 10x revenue club, because Silicon Valley mostly lives on price to revenue multiples.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley predicts a smaller company with a courageous founder will IPO first, not Stripe or other large names. https://minutesof.com/q/2cde2a46-1886-4b87-8e6f-73d356f2eee2/ https://minutesof.com/q/2cde2a46-1886-4b87-8e6f-73d356f2eee2/ “I actually I actually think we'll probably see someone a smaller company with a courageous founder step through the window. Like, I don't think we don't have to wait around for Stripe.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley argues OpenAI wouldn't exist if Google's attention mechanism paper had been patented instead of open-so https://minutesof.com/q/7229045e-4ebd-4c99-ab12-e4521d7c749b/ https://minutesof.com/q/7229045e-4ebd-4c99-ab12-e4521d7c749b/ “This concept was done inside of Google as an open source concept, immediately copied by all the other players. So OpenAI doesn't exist today if that's patented and controlled.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley argues OpenAI wouldn't exist without open source DeepMind research, highlighting the irony of their ant https://minutesof.com/q/b47e707a-e32b-4860-92f0-4c9a501a4ffd/ https://minutesof.com/q/b47e707a-e32b-4860-92f0-4c9a501a4ffd/ “OpenAI doesn't exist today if that's patented and controlled. It just doesn't, which is another irony around this open source argument because they've benefited massively from a major, but the idea of being shared, and this is also why I'm such a massive open source proponent because I think it's so relevant to prosperity for the masses.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley argues Deng Xiaoping brought 500 million people out of poverty through capitalism, more than any altrui https://minutesof.com/q/ec27e8c3-9042-4449-984e-0ab902fca18e/ https://minutesof.com/q/ec27e8c3-9042-4449-984e-0ab902fca18e/ “Ding Xiaoping, who brought capitalism to China and brought 500,000,000, 500,000,000 people out of poverty.” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley argues Deng Xiaoping brought 500 million people out of poverty through capitalism, more than any altrui https://minutesof.com/q/c329b652-6d91-4ff3-af2a-6d587ac14427/ https://minutesof.com/q/c329b652-6d91-4ff3-af2a-6d587ac14427/ “No other human being, not not the most no, no, you know, not Mother Teresa, not like no altruist, no socialist has come anywhere close to this number that was done merely by unleashing the human potential that was latent inside of China by allowing for idea sharing and commerce” — Bg2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:05:50 +0000 Gurley observes all voices promoting AI regulation are executives or large investors with tens to hundreds of https://minutesof.com/q/ad0d3bce-2f21-4900-b434-e6e2355bebf4/ https://minutesof.com/q/ad0d3bce-2f21-4900-b434-e6e2355bebf4/ “In particular, it's quite notable that all of the loud voices are either executives at these companies and or large investors at these companies.” — This Week in Startups Tue, 10 Oct 2023 01:53:27 +0000 Gurley reports open source models like Llama 2 are gaining market share among portfolio startups using AI tool https://minutesof.com/q/bbddac03-fadc-4f95-8bdf-d3731f04576a/ https://minutesof.com/q/bbddac03-fadc-4f95-8bdf-d3731f04576a/ “What I'm hearing internally from our portfolio is this specifically the ilama too, Sunny sent me another one today, are really starting to gain market share amongst the startups that are using these tools.” — This Week in Startups Tue, 10 Oct 2023 01:53:27 +0000 Gurley notes AI companies have raised billions of dollars each at unprecedented levels despite being early sta https://minutesof.com/q/e00715d4-e5c3-427a-8328-fc53984e4d0f/ https://minutesof.com/q/e00715d4-e5c3-427a-8328-fc53984e4d0f/ “So yeah, you could call them early stage startups, but you could also I mean, who they've raised billions of dollars each, you know,” — This Week in Startups Tue, 10 Oct 2023 01:53:27 +0000 Gurley finds it suspect that incumbents, not academicians, are leading the charge to regulate open source AI. https://minutesof.com/q/6ee9d271-deed-4ec9-b3a5-8e4d89e0e946/ https://minutesof.com/q/6ee9d271-deed-4ec9-b3a5-8e4d89e0e946/ “The people that are leading the charge calling for the regulation and calling and some of them raising this question of whether open source should be allowed are the incumbents.” — This Week in Startups Tue, 10 Oct 2023 01:53:27 +0000 Gurley argues regions that shut down open source AI will fail to innovate relative to regions that allow it. https://minutesof.com/q/b4be9683-755b-42a5-95e8-b6912d99cd6d/ https://minutesof.com/q/b4be9683-755b-42a5-95e8-b6912d99cd6d/ “So if you shut it down in a particular region, that region is gonna fail to innovate relative to the other regions that are out there.” — This Week in Startups Tue, 10 Oct 2023 01:53:27 +0000 Gurley describes how telecom lobbyists drafted legislation directly, contradicting civic education about how l https://minutesof.com/q/6e9449f6-fd1b-481c-8f5d-2f497e715391/ https://minutesof.com/q/6e9449f6-fd1b-481c-8f5d-2f497e715391/ “They had put a bill on Governor Rindle's desk, proposal drafted by lobbyists for the telecommunications companies. This isn't what I learned on Schoolhouse Rock.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley shows Telecom Act of 1996 increased top four market share from 48% to 85%, opposite of stated goal. https://minutesof.com/q/66f86aa1-7c6c-4512-ab84-1aafbc17161f/ https://minutesof.com/q/66f86aa1-7c6c-4512-ab84-1aafbc17161f/ “In 1996, the top four had 48 market share. Four, five years later, after this heralded legislation, they're up to 85%. That didn't work.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley notes telecom market share consolidated from 48% to 85% after 1996 Telecommunications Act. https://minutesof.com/q/33c74caa-4bba-414e-affa-1a9bcb426f77/ https://minutesof.com/q/33c74caa-4bba-414e-affa-1a9bcb426f77/ “In 1996, the top four had 48 market share. Four, five years later, after this heralded legislation, they're up to 85%. That didn't work. Let's check-in on the second one. Were they promoting innovation?” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley shows telecom regulation killed innovation: VC investment dropped from 15% of total to below 1% in ten https://minutesof.com/q/b9f291c5-a207-4107-a2ce-49176e991e82/ https://minutesof.com/q/b9f291c5-a207-4107-a2ce-49176e991e82/ “This used to be 15% of what VCs did. Within ten years, it had gone below 1%, and a year later, the MVCA stopped tracking it.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley quotes Stigler's regulatory capture theory: regulation is acquired by industry and designed for its ben https://minutesof.com/q/3587eaeb-6fe0-442c-92a8-53fe5f69437b/ https://minutesof.com/q/3587eaeb-6fe0-442c-92a8-53fe5f69437b/ “As a rule, regulation is acquired by the industry and is designed and operated primarily for its benefit. I'd like to say regulation is the friend of the incumbent.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley quotes Nobel laureate Stigler that regulation is acquired by industry for its own benefit. https://minutesof.com/q/0ceb6ad8-9cc2-4f00-b88e-4e66c28597e2/ https://minutesof.com/q/0ceb6ad8-9cc2-4f00-b88e-4e66c28597e2/ “As a rule, regulation is acquired by the industry and is designed and operated primarily for its benefit.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley notes Epic's CEO was the only corporate representative on Obama's health IT council and was a major don https://minutesof.com/q/1a150e57-a2a3-4c33-a1ea-e232a02398be/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a150e57-a2a3-4c33-a1ea-e232a02398be/ “Obama put her on his health IT council. She was the only corporate representative. Should not surprise you that, she's a major donor to Obama.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley describes $38 billion program paying doctors $44,000 each to buy electronic health record software. https://minutesof.com/q/cd031a83-117d-4a17-9b0b-97597213caa7/ https://minutesof.com/q/cd031a83-117d-4a17-9b0b-97597213caa7/ “They came up with a brilliant idea. I have to assume she helped encourage this. Doctors would receive $44,000 each if they bought software. $38,000,000,000.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 I have to assume she helped encourage this. Doctors would receive $44,000 each if they bought software. $38,00 https://minutesof.com/q/e79bc668-dfba-4436-bdb3-c0e37fa21a66/ https://minutesof.com/q/e79bc668-dfba-4436-bdb3-c0e37fa21a66/ “I have to assume she helped encourage this. Doctors would receive $44,000 each if they bought software. $38,000,000,000. This is true. You can look it up.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley says Obama's stimulus included $38 billion paying doctors $44,000 each to buy EHR software. https://minutesof.com/q/8e8852af-edde-466f-a847-b772017c2257/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e8852af-edde-466f-a847-b772017c2257/ “Doctors would receive $44,000 each if they bought software. $38,000,000,000. This is true. You can look it up. I'm not making it up. $44,000, give it to a doctor, implement some software.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley says DOJ fined Epic competitors $155 million, $57 million, and $145 million for lacking mandated featur https://minutesof.com/q/22ee3c5a-5948-4d4c-9bca-75b0759097b7/ https://minutesof.com/q/22ee3c5a-5948-4d4c-9bca-75b0759097b7/ “But they got the Department of Justice to enforce people that didn't have the feature set that were getting the payments, and you had three record fines, 155,000,000, 57,000,000, 145,000,000 against the lesser competitors of Epic. Unreal.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley says Germany validated 96 COVID test vendors while US approved only three. https://minutesof.com/q/79404e94-d2a9-404c-8c61-0dd6ca1ed1bf/ https://minutesof.com/q/79404e94-d2a9-404c-8c61-0dd6ca1ed1bf/ “Germany leaned heavily into rapid tests. They got their scientists together, and they evaluated a 122 different vendors and validated 96 of them.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley says Germany validated 96 COVID test vendors, resulting in prices of 75 cents per test. https://minutesof.com/q/f5baaa34-9dc1-4a08-ab59-ed5559dc0f5c/ https://minutesof.com/q/f5baaa34-9dc1-4a08-ab59-ed5559dc0f5c/ “Here they are on the right, 96 different vendors that they ok'd. And as a result, in the German market, you could buy five tests for $3.75 or €75 cents a test.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley reveals FDA antigen test overseer Timothy Stenzel previously worked five years at Quidel and four at Ab https://minutesof.com/q/e61dcf06-83c3-45db-82ce-2668d4bc993c/ https://minutesof.com/q/e61dcf06-83c3-45db-82ce-2668d4bc993c/ “This guy's name is Timothy Stenzel. Now, he works for the FDA, and he runs the group that oversees which antigen test gets approved.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley notes all seven COVID tests at Walgreens and CVS are identically priced at $23.99. https://minutesof.com/q/8e744345-ec75-412d-96ae-b5ec00a1d8b2/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e744345-ec75-412d-96ae-b5ec00a1d8b2/ “Yesterday, just for kicks kinda, I went online. This is Walgreens and CVS antigen test. There's seven tests. They're all exactly $23.99. What is that? That's not a marketplace. That's not open competition.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley concludes Silicon Valley's success is because it is so far away from Washington DC. https://minutesof.com/q/ce52a09e-1e02-40c3-bc86-bad00bc5b4e1/ https://minutesof.com/q/ce52a09e-1e02-40c3-bc86-bad00bc5b4e1/ “The reason Silicon Valley has been so successful is because it's so fucking far away from Washington DC.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 16 Sep 2023 01:49:57 +0000 Gurley notes Instacart's stock-based compensation is a fraction of other tech companies, calling high SBC very https://minutesof.com/q/e922b1af-0ab0-4b1b-aa87-7c30b5106f29/ https://minutesof.com/q/e922b1af-0ab0-4b1b-aa87-7c30b5106f29/ “Their stock based comp is a fraction of all the other companies in the space and all the other tech companies.” — CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 Gurley says Netflix executives choosing cash over stock makes management more thoughtful about expenditures. https://minutesof.com/q/b8940ef7-0075-48e8-b478-0eba6630d48a/ https://minutesof.com/q/b8940ef7-0075-48e8-b478-0eba6630d48a/ “Netflix, they've let executives make a decision between cash and stock, and a lot of them have taken cash. And I personally think management is a lot more, thoughtful about cash expenditures,” — CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 Gurley argues management treats stock-based compensation as free while being more thoughtful with cash, but sh https://minutesof.com/q/1a596bde-524a-4717-afba-84a12d8f2778/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a596bde-524a-4717-afba-84a12d8f2778/ “I personally think management is a lot more, thoughtful about cash expenditures, and I think they think about this SBC as if it's free almost. Mhmm. But I don't think shareholders think that way.” — CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 Gurley argues management treats stock-based compensation as if it's free, unlike cash expenditures which get m https://minutesof.com/q/a1bca6c2-2983-49f4-a0c7-1cf1e734186f/ https://minutesof.com/q/a1bca6c2-2983-49f4-a0c7-1cf1e734186f/ “I personally think management is a lot more, thoughtful about cash expenditures, and I think they think about this SBC as if it's free almost.” — CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 Gurley observes venture markets rise slowly but crash immediately, based on experiencing three bubble cycles. https://minutesof.com/q/a28d89f9-eb3f-4eb7-821e-aa227e16db49/ https://minutesof.com/q/a28d89f9-eb3f-4eb7-821e-aa227e16db49/ “Yeah. Look, I've lived through three different bubbles and bursts in this industry, and unfortunately, it's highly cyclical. And when you and and it tends to go up slowly, and it tends to crash immediately.” — CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 Gurley says the venture industry is highly cyclical, rising slowly but crashing immediately across three bubbl https://minutesof.com/q/84e1ff8f-eb18-4a77-8fca-b2b4a9d43069/ https://minutesof.com/q/84e1ff8f-eb18-4a77-8fca-b2b4a9d43069/ “I've lived through three different bubbles and bursts in this industry, and unfortunately, it's highly cyclical. And when you and and it tends to go up slowly, and it tends to crash immediately.” — CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 Gurley observes tech valuations rise slowly but crash immediately, and he has now seen this pattern three time https://minutesof.com/q/cbb5d067-a876-4dec-92a7-d0540518889e/ https://minutesof.com/q/cbb5d067-a876-4dec-92a7-d0540518889e/ “it tends to go up slowly, and it tends to crash immediately. And so this is the third time I've seen valuations crash,” — CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 Gurley says massive multiple contraction happened across the industry, not due to company performance but mark https://minutesof.com/q/159bc233-8525-4df2-816c-c58371cc0c0b/ https://minutesof.com/q/159bc233-8525-4df2-816c-c58371cc0c0b/ “Like, it just happened. There was massive multiple contraction writ large across the industry, and the companies have to navigate it.” — CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 Gurley states valuation crashes are industry-wide and unrelated to individual company operations, requiring na https://minutesof.com/q/a676a033-c6a2-43ee-b70e-118f9147860d/ https://minutesof.com/q/a676a033-c6a2-43ee-b70e-118f9147860d/ “They can't magically wish for the valuation they want to add because it's not actually related to how they're operating.” — CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 Gurley explains stacked liquidation preferences on cap tables make navigating acute valuation corrections very https://minutesof.com/q/47b38120-190c-467c-b869-6eb62b0e8844/ https://minutesof.com/q/47b38120-190c-467c-b869-6eb62b0e8844/ “it's very difficult because these private company capitalization charts have stacks and stacks of liquidation preference, and it's when you have that acute of a correction, it's very hard to make this transition.” — CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 Gurley explains stacks of liquidation preferences make transitions very hard during acute market corrections. https://minutesof.com/q/29702fdd-0208-4747-97f2-21f72e22ede1/ https://minutesof.com/q/29702fdd-0208-4747-97f2-21f72e22ede1/ “these private company capitalization charts have stacks and stacks of liquidation preference, and it's when you have that acute of a correction, it's very hard to make this transition.” — CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 Gurley explains the slow IPO market results from companies struggling to reconcile liquidation preferences aft https://minutesof.com/q/d03e72b3-98e7-4d93-9d6e-e0087640b5c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/d03e72b3-98e7-4d93-9d6e-e0087640b5c6/ “And that's one of the reasons why the IPO market's been slow to get going because people have to get come to terms with all these things.” — CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 Gurley says valuation disparity takes time to accept because stakeholders have been repeatedly told they're wo https://minutesof.com/q/38bbf970-6ee5-4084-b2ad-3d1874d22bbb/ https://minutesof.com/q/38bbf970-6ee5-4084-b2ad-3d1874d22bbb/ “these this valuation disparity that they just talked about is a real issue, and it takes a while for people to come around. Like, they've been told, you're worth this.” — CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 Gurley says complex cap tables with multiple constituencies cause investors to opt out of unicorn financings e https://minutesof.com/q/44254464-6e1a-4628-9973-ec438e34d826/ https://minutesof.com/q/44254464-6e1a-4628-9973-ec438e34d826/ “a lot of people just say they opt out and say no this is too hard, I'm not going to go in there and negotiate with five different constituencies on how to do this.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 Gurley notes hyper-competition removed liquidation preference protection on IPOs, enabling founders to convert https://minutesof.com/q/51a8f0e5-6918-422e-adcc-35096c462ddf/ https://minutesof.com/q/51a8f0e5-6918-422e-adcc-35096c462ddf/ “There was a term removed from most term sheets that gave investors the right to protect their LICPREF on an IPO, that's gone in most of these cases.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 Gurley claims venture's outperformance depends entirely on tiny frothy windows; without peak years it's an uni https://minutesof.com/q/873d2f11-d308-4df3-8646-6745e5893268/ https://minutesof.com/q/873d2f11-d308-4df3-8646-6745e5893268/ “And if you don't, if you aren't around for that part, you know, you strip those years out a forty year assessment, it's actually not that interesting an asset class,” — All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 Gurley says venture firms should exit at peaks but instead become most confident about holding forever at thos https://minutesof.com/q/93fad824-abf1-4399-bf1a-2e085b9e01c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/93fad824-abf1-4399-bf1a-2e085b9e01c6/ “Yes, right when we are at the peak is when people get the most brazen, the most confident and they start talking about how we're going to hold forever.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 Gurley says only 10 to 15 companies in venture history merit hold-forever strategy but the rhetoric became com https://minutesof.com/q/8b22e462-2d9f-45d8-9184-4390fa1ed736/ https://minutesof.com/q/8b22e462-2d9f-45d8-9184-4390fa1ed736/ “I think the total number of companies that meet that criteria in the history of the venture industry is like 10 or 15. Yes.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 Gurley says during booms every firm started multiple funds, piling up money and slowly taking on unrecognized https://minutesof.com/q/6ce7bb89-8b04-4635-a24a-552688785040/ https://minutesof.com/q/6ce7bb89-8b04-4635-a24a-552688785040/ “So when things boom, everyone starts a venture firm. Right? And in this past boom, in addition to everyone starting a venture firm, every venture firm started multiple venture firms and growth firms, and all that money gets piled up and you're slowly taking on risk and you don't realize it.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley says in the recent boom every venture firm started multiple funds, slowly piling up risk unknowingly. https://minutesof.com/q/c1542d35-d580-4c80-a252-68a8b8f65783/ https://minutesof.com/q/c1542d35-d580-4c80-a252-68a8b8f65783/ “And in this past boom, in addition to everyone starting a venture firm, every venture firm started multiple venture firms and growth firms, and all that money gets piled up and you're slowly taking on risk and you don't realize it. It's like the roller coaster goes, nink, nink, nink, nink, nink.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley says in the recent boom every venture firm started multiple funds, piling up risk unnoticed. https://minutesof.com/q/f6a090a8-4f45-4e43-a76e-6486503c6eaa/ https://minutesof.com/q/f6a090a8-4f45-4e43-a76e-6486503c6eaa/ “And you're taking more and more risk and you don't know it because everyone around you is taking the same amount of risk.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley calls FTX the perfect pinnacle of the recent bubble where legendary investors ignored risk. https://minutesof.com/q/9b74baa1-b2aa-4691-a182-d1dc892d30ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/9b74baa1-b2aa-4691-a182-d1dc892d30ae/ “And maybe FTX is the perfect pinnacle of this past one where a bunch of legendary investors just ignored risk. You know, and they wouldn't have done that in 2009.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley notes SVB stock traded at $260 on March 8, arguing Wall Street misjudged risk too. https://minutesof.com/q/981906a5-c2b5-4e44-8e98-596f76571c4f/ https://minutesof.com/q/981906a5-c2b5-4e44-8e98-596f76571c4f/ “So on March 8, the stock was trading at $260 a share. So there are people that want to put this on risk taking in Silicon Valley, but Wall Street got it wrong too.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley says every VC speaking publicly is performing for entrepreneurs they haven't met yet. https://minutesof.com/q/37c248c9-fe10-41e6-b275-f1db588adcd8/ https://minutesof.com/q/37c248c9-fe10-41e6-b275-f1db588adcd8/ “Every venture capitalist, when they open their mouth in front of a microphone, which I guess I'm doing right now, is talking to the entrepreneur they haven't met yet.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley says every VC speaking publicly is performing for future founders, creating pressure to look supportive https://minutesof.com/q/7086236c-2739-4b19-b71c-7c5b6ed9c8b9/ https://minutesof.com/q/7086236c-2739-4b19-b71c-7c5b6ed9c8b9/ “There is so much important criticality in getting in front of the right pitches that everyone wants to look like the best actor.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley links VC cheerleading behavior directly to governance failures like FTX. https://minutesof.com/q/585b0f78-dba9-457b-b1c6-50e3919fb6b8/ https://minutesof.com/q/585b0f78-dba9-457b-b1c6-50e3919fb6b8/ “The problem is that's the exact same type of behavior that leads to the FTX situation because you take yourself out of a governance role completely because you just become the founder cheerleader.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley says venture capital must be measured over 20-40 years, longer than most employees stay. https://minutesof.com/q/488f7eba-5773-48dd-8a9e-c7936559f1fc/ https://minutesof.com/q/488f7eba-5773-48dd-8a9e-c7936559f1fc/ “You got to look at it over twenty to forty years, which is really bizarre because most firms don't have employees that long.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley says firms that exited in the late 1990s bubble missed the vast majority of returns. https://minutesof.com/q/1999384c-643e-44d4-bfb8-a478a7df965f/ https://minutesof.com/q/1999384c-643e-44d4-bfb8-a478a7df965f/ “But the vast majority of the returns are in these periods at the top of these bubbles.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley contrasts Bezos respectfully addressing shareholders in his S-1 against later founders' antagonistic ap https://minutesof.com/q/caa9f822-6993-41ed-a808-449a8b1570ac/ https://minutesof.com/q/caa9f822-6993-41ed-a808-449a8b1570ac/ “So if you reread his S-one where he writes a letter, it's titled To Our Share Owners, and he talks a lot about them.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley contrasts Bezos's respectful shareholder communication with other founders who antagonized Wall Street https://minutesof.com/q/2327f1f9-9950-44f8-bed6-58d92ee9dfce/ https://minutesof.com/q/2327f1f9-9950-44f8-bed6-58d92ee9dfce/ “All the entrepreneurs that followed Jeff that wrote that letter were kind of like, screw you, Wall Street. I'm going to run it my own way.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley criticizes FTX investors for funding a company with no board and commingled businesses. https://minutesof.com/q/0fa14a09-a0bd-413c-b6f4-b032089f040a/ https://minutesof.com/q/0fa14a09-a0bd-413c-b6f4-b032089f040a/ “I mean, the markets have a way of separating, very risk seeking individuals from their capital. It may not happen overnight, but it always happens eventually. Like there's no easy money.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley questions investors who funded FTX despite no board and commingled businesses. https://minutesof.com/q/abb3fb3e-b89e-4a4e-b595-d4bc1c765252/ https://minutesof.com/q/abb3fb3e-b89e-4a4e-b595-d4bc1c765252/ “I love the FTX story, not because I wanna pick on anybody, but to make the decision to give money to somebody that has no board and that has a side business that's commingled, who tells you it's not commingled, it turns out it was commingled. Like, what are you doing?” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley suggests Austin and Miami being fun cities may be a problem for attracting the most determined startup https://minutesof.com/q/f5d100c2-796b-4d21-bbe3-a93aa329c503/ https://minutesof.com/q/f5d100c2-796b-4d21-bbe3-a93aa329c503/ “I think many cities, whether it's Austin or Miami, they they have a problem that sounds ironic, but they're a lot of fun.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Gurley cites Ferriss's metrics: 10 million books sold, 2 million email subscribers, and podcast approaching on https://minutesof.com/q/52067ccb-8394-46a0-9d6e-e881f01e9dfd/ https://minutesof.com/q/52067ccb-8394-46a0-9d6e-e881f01e9dfd/ “He sold 10,000,000 books. I got a list here. He got 2,000,000 email subs, over a thousand blog posts, 7,000,000 followers on social media, and his podcast is about to pass a billion downloads.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 20 Jul 2023 20:37:52 +0000 Gurley frames luck and optionality as something you can increase by taking seemingly superfluous meetings that https://minutesof.com/q/cc500b89-3ab1-457e-b2c6-b9d6bbe344de/ https://minutesof.com/q/cc500b89-3ab1-457e-b2c6-b9d6bbe344de/ “it's a question of can you increase your optionality for fortune or luck or whatever anyone else says by taking meetings that may seem superfluous or uncertain or that then lead to these big outcomes?” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 20 Jul 2023 20:37:52 +0000 Gurley identifies email and podcasting as content forms structurally resistant to platform control due to thei https://minutesof.com/q/a27ed367-6bf8-4986-867e-f3868fd70949/ https://minutesof.com/q/a27ed367-6bf8-4986-867e-f3868fd70949/ “And email and podcasting are two content forms where there's no evil overlord that control. They're they're both these highly distributed things just by the way they're technically implemented.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 20 Jul 2023 20:37:52 +0000 Gurley observes email and podcasting are unique content forms with no centralized control due to their technic https://minutesof.com/q/0aa6ca76-85f4-4432-bcdc-d48cc0166eee/ https://minutesof.com/q/0aa6ca76-85f4-4432-bcdc-d48cc0166eee/ “email and podcasting are two content forms where there's no evil overlord that control. They're they're both these highly distributed things just by the way they're technically implemented.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 20 Jul 2023 20:37:52 +0000 Gurley speculates LinkedIn's InMail monetization prevented it from capturing powerful conversations like Twitt https://minutesof.com/q/d174e826-4488-424d-83f4-92deb9631905/ https://minutesof.com/q/d174e826-4488-424d-83f4-92deb9631905/ “I've wondered over the years if LinkedIn hadn't polluted their InMail and made it monetize and they had done what Twitter did, how much of the most powerful conversations in the world would” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 20 Jul 2023 20:37:52 +0000 Gurley advocates against tribalism, arguing people shouldn't let one group decide their opinions on everything https://minutesof.com/q/580e1a78-959f-46b1-a02f-b83eeac4f610/ https://minutesof.com/q/580e1a78-959f-46b1-a02f-b83eeac4f610/ “And I just feel like there's no reason that 50% of the world should have their opinion on everything decided by one group of people.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 20 Jul 2023 20:37:52 +0000 Gurley advocates waiting rather than reacting, citing Silicon Valley Bank weekend as example where panic prove https://minutesof.com/q/a3605c30-2ccf-4578-a26c-fda42a9192d2/ https://minutesof.com/q/a3605c30-2ccf-4578-a26c-fda42a9192d2/ “I've learned that if you just wait a little bit of time, a lot of problems go away.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 20 Jul 2023 20:37:52 +0000 Gurley says all investors must hold strong opinions loosely because variables constantly change. https://minutesof.com/q/7d12c629-8bb6-490c-8c87-22199fbb5e85/ https://minutesof.com/q/7d12c629-8bb6-490c-8c87-22199fbb5e85/ “And Yes. I think I think all investors have to work within that framework because things change.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 26 Jan 2023 19:45:00 +0000 Gurley notes the two best VCs at the time, Doerr and Moritz, invested in Google when he passed. https://minutesof.com/q/bbcbbfe2-1a8d-4450-974a-7bb0c250e7da/ https://minutesof.com/q/bbcbbfe2-1a8d-4450-974a-7bb0c250e7da/ “I'd like to highlight, and I always do, the two best venture capitalists in the world at the time, John Doerr and Mike Maritz, kinda locked hands and said yes.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 26 Jan 2023 19:45:00 +0000 Gurley discovered Dell had 20-to-1 ROIC advantage versus competitors using return on invested capital framewor https://minutesof.com/q/19c858a7-a0ae-45ba-85d9-70a9ca6dba21/ https://minutesof.com/q/19c858a7-a0ae-45ba-85d9-70a9ca6dba21/ “It turned out just by happenstance that Dell stood out like a sore thumb with ridiculously high ROIC numbers versus the rest of the industry. Like, night and day, like, 20 to one.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 26 Jan 2023 19:45:00 +0000 Gurley found Dell's return on invested capital was 20 times higher than competitors, initially unbelievable. https://minutesof.com/q/5834e02b-5116-49b3-8aec-6e2d797860c7/ https://minutesof.com/q/5834e02b-5116-49b3-8aec-6e2d797860c7/ “Like, night and day, like, 20 to one. Wasn't even close. And in fact, it was so ridiculous.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 26 Jan 2023 19:45:00 +0000 Gurley recalls OpenTable's CFO wanted to quit because his model capped market share at 17 percent. https://minutesof.com/q/0b2cf90f-177f-42e1-89ce-6875dffa6e4f/ https://minutesof.com/q/0b2cf90f-177f-42e1-89ce-6875dffa6e4f/ “And one day I showed up early for a board meeting and and the CFO comes to me and he says, Bill, I'm I'm gonna quit.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 26 Jan 2023 19:45:00 +0000 Gurley tells entrepreneurs the 2020-21 boom was a fantasy, not normal, and current conditions are reality. https://minutesof.com/q/97cdae8f-ade0-400e-adff-ed2f3244733e/ https://minutesof.com/q/97cdae8f-ade0-400e-adff-ed2f3244733e/ “Then I'm not the only one, there's other VC's getting, this is normal dude. Like that was a fantasy you were in and you need to forget it fast, but you can't.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 26 Jan 2023 19:45:00 +0000 Gurley says average Silicon Valley financial literacy is two out of ten versus eight-and-a-half in New York. https://minutesof.com/q/7d6607ac-c740-4a42-a97a-8f9f84e2d4a8/ https://minutesof.com/q/7d6607ac-c740-4a42-a97a-8f9f84e2d4a8/ “So this gets into some of the earlier stuff we talked about just about how deep you go on investing history and understanding But if there is a scale of financial sophistication between one and ten, and you would say a really smart person in New York is a eight and a half.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 26 Jan 2023 19:45:00 +0000 Gurley says profitable companies at IPO dropped from 90% in downturns to 5% by 2020-2021. https://minutesof.com/q/2104d574-1ccc-4cf1-b5f6-ad86fdff8778/ https://minutesof.com/q/2104d574-1ccc-4cf1-b5f6-ad86fdff8778/ “Right? And so in really dark times, the percentage of companies IPOing their profitable is like 90. But by 2020, 2021, that number is 5%.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 26 Jan 2023 19:45:00 +0000 Gurley believes Facebook's stock would double if they shut down VR, which costs $5-10 billion annually. https://minutesof.com/q/26d4b192-2680-4555-b3e8-a4c01d36376d/ https://minutesof.com/q/26d4b192-2680-4555-b3e8-a4c01d36376d/ “Wall Street's on my side on this one. I think if they shut down the VR effort, not only will the profitability would soar because they're spending real money, like 5 to 10,000,000,000 a” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 26 Jan 2023 19:45:00 +0000 Gurley notes Amazon ran same-day delivery experiments on Uber while most $20-30M companies would refuse due to https://minutesof.com/q/a9a9836c-d44f-42f9-9ffd-a48328624f93/ https://minutesof.com/q/a9a9836c-d44f-42f9-9ffd-a48328624f93/ “This is a company that's worth 100 billions of dollars that is running an experiment on top of Uber. And Yeah.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 26 Jan 2023 19:45:00 +0000 Gurley cites $44 billion spent paying doctors to implement EHR systems as regulatory capture example. https://minutesof.com/q/ca17b810-93b5-478a-8c30-99b0ce030516/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca17b810-93b5-478a-8c30-99b0ce030516/ “of my favorite examples, the Obama administration came up with this program where they spent $44,000,000,000 paying doctors to implement EHR systems.” — Tim Ferriss Thu, 26 Jan 2023 19:45:00 +0000 So you have low barriers to entry but you have very high barriers to exit https://minutesof.com/q/c8e873ed-bc45-45e1-8513-18dc9b4a80b3/ https://minutesof.com/q/c8e873ed-bc45-45e1-8513-18dc9b4a80b3/ “So you have low barriers to entry but you have very high barriers to exit” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 you have low barriers to entry but you have very high barriers to exit and so he felt that it was just systema https://minutesof.com/q/916fdadc-85ca-4d7c-9c01-f05fb354f0c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/916fdadc-85ca-4d7c-9c01-f05fb354f0c6/ “you have low barriers to entry but you have very high barriers to exit and so he felt that it was just systematically set up to rise and crash, rise and crash.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 Gurley describes venture cycles as sawtooth patterns rather than sine curves, with gradual risk-on and abrupt https://minutesof.com/q/8446b6e0-024f-41f3-815b-babb97db591e/ https://minutesof.com/q/8446b6e0-024f-41f3-815b-babb97db591e/ “it doesn't happen like a sine curve which is what we all imagine when we think of a cyclical business, it's more like a sawtooth.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 Gurley says venture cycles are sawtooth-shaped, not sine curves, with slow reflexive risk-on periods. https://minutesof.com/q/2c364756-6613-45a6-9d33-0cc579573d1f/ https://minutesof.com/q/2c364756-6613-45a6-9d33-0cc579573d1f/ “Risk on is a very slow process and it's reflexive so it grows and grows and grows and grows” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 Gurley describes risk-on as slow and reflexive while risk-off happens abruptly, not like a sine curve. https://minutesof.com/q/195df41e-5c24-4b0e-83ba-95f4fea63635/ https://minutesof.com/q/195df41e-5c24-4b0e-83ba-95f4fea63635/ “Risk on is a very slow process and it's reflexive so it grows and grows and grows and grows And then risk off tends to be very abrupt” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 Gurley dates the current risk-on cycle from 2009 to five months before this event. https://minutesof.com/q/f7c261ad-e621-4977-b7af-0e1a63e138f4/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7c261ad-e621-4977-b7af-0e1a63e138f4/ “And then risk off tends to be very abrupt and we've seen that here, This cycle risk on was from 'nine to five months ago.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 Gurley says venture capital returns are heavily dependent on performance during the hottest part of market cyc https://minutesof.com/q/07f83cae-c84a-4ad1-81b4-6776d3832448/ https://minutesof.com/q/07f83cae-c84a-4ad1-81b4-6776d3832448/ “what I realized was that the IRR numbers and the ROI numbers on the venture capital category were heavily dependent on performance in the hottest part of the cycle and so in the tip of that sawtooth” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 Gurley found that venture capital returns are heavily dependent on performance during the hottest part of cycl https://minutesof.com/q/f4b8422e-b5ab-4f54-b76f-4f5b03caeb54/ https://minutesof.com/q/f4b8422e-b5ab-4f54-b76f-4f5b03caeb54/ “the IRR numbers and the ROI numbers on the venture capital category were heavily dependent on performance in the hottest part of the cycle” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 Gurley coined the phrase that protecting against downside requires enjoying every bit of upside in venture cyc https://minutesof.com/q/931bfc23-4b12-4917-8ca7-cf1944131d96/ https://minutesof.com/q/931bfc23-4b12-4917-8ca7-cf1944131d96/ “that's where we came up with this phrase that the best way to protect yourself against the downside is to enjoy every last bit of the upside.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 Gurley states the best downside protection in venture capital is fully capturing the upside. https://minutesof.com/q/7dfb4ca9-25be-40bc-8072-a9faa927e97c/ https://minutesof.com/q/7dfb4ca9-25be-40bc-8072-a9faa927e97c/ “the best way to protect yourself against the downside is to enjoy every last bit of the upside.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 Gurley criticizes price-to-revenue multiples as the crudest possible valuation tool for evaluating companies. https://minutesof.com/q/97ef2aba-7191-44d0-8ab6-f8fa9c7a9df8/ https://minutesof.com/q/97ef2aba-7191-44d0-8ab6-f8fa9c7a9df8/ “price to revenue is like this really crude valuation tool, it's like the crudest you could possibly have.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 Gurley lists specific new scrutiny metrics buyers now apply to SaaS companies beyond crude price-to-revenue mu https://minutesof.com/q/40e6f4aa-d7b0-4899-8bcf-9546b1260b89/ https://minutesof.com/q/40e6f4aa-d7b0-4899-8bcf-9546b1260b89/ “what really values companies, you know, it's typically a discounted cash flows and so now all of a sudden the buy side's asking SaaS companies about net dollar retention, about long term operating margin, about whether their free cash flow is greater or less than their net income, about SBC as a percentage of free cash flow.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 Gurley says post-correction windows are the calmest periods with least anxiety in his three-decade career. https://minutesof.com/q/e93af461-4e49-42e6-8231-0844aafe4b3c/ https://minutesof.com/q/e93af461-4e49-42e6-8231-0844aafe4b3c/ “By the way, I found, and I shared this with my partners the other day, I found through my career, which wasn't four decades, okay.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 Gurley finds the period after market corrections to be the calmest with least anxiety in his career. https://minutesof.com/q/24e0feba-3fec-4656-b2a4-dc64442ff9bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/24e0feba-3fec-4656-b2a4-dc64442ff9bc/ “I found through my career, which wasn't four decades, okay. Over three That the window after the correction is the calmest, where there's least anxiety for me at least.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 Gurley finds the post-correction window calmest with less anxiety, slower pace, and more rational behavior. https://minutesof.com/q/2cfc88e0-1c95-481a-8b70-dfae58500dde/ https://minutesof.com/q/2cfc88e0-1c95-481a-8b70-dfae58500dde/ “the window after the correction is the calmest, where there's least anxiety for me at least. Like everything slows down, people talk rationally, people aren't doing silly things.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 So you have low barriers to entry, but you have very high barriers to exit. And so felt that it was just syste https://minutesof.com/q/ba3df185-1c63-4fa5-a233-ef1939e3a9e2/ https://minutesof.com/q/ba3df185-1c63-4fa5-a233-ef1939e3a9e2/ “So you have low barriers to entry, but you have very high barriers to exit. And so felt that it was just systematically set up to rise and crash, rise and crash.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 And then risk off tends to be very abrupt and we've seen that here, right? This this cycle, risk on was from o https://minutesof.com/q/308fd1f5-4b2f-484f-9aa5-19db5f9b947d/ https://minutesof.com/q/308fd1f5-4b2f-484f-9aa5-19db5f9b947d/ “And then risk off tends to be very abrupt and we've seen that here, right? This this cycle, risk on was from o nine. That's well said. To five months ago.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 Gurley explains venture firms must maximize upside because IRR depends on hot cycle performance, which may acc https://minutesof.com/q/74630893-0a8d-4332-8f11-489f98bbd7d5/ https://minutesof.com/q/74630893-0a8d-4332-8f11-489f98bbd7d5/ “And that's where we came up with this phrase that the best way to protect yourself against the downside is to enjoy every last bit of the upside.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 And so what really values companies, you know, it's typically a discounted cash flows. And so now all of a sud https://minutesof.com/q/c0036f3a-cf91-49ec-82e1-e592fc3f1c9f/ https://minutesof.com/q/c0036f3a-cf91-49ec-82e1-e592fc3f1c9f/ “And so what really values companies, you know, it's typically a discounted cash flows. And so now all of a sudden, the buy side's asking SaaS companies about net dollar retention, about long term operating margin, about whether their free cash flow is greater or less than their net income, about SBC as a percentage of free cash” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 Gurley finds post-correction windows the calmest period with least anxiety as people behave more rationally an https://minutesof.com/q/5d43bd16-477e-4bb5-a9de-5be91c7873bf/ https://minutesof.com/q/5d43bd16-477e-4bb5-a9de-5be91c7873bf/ “The window after the correction is the calmest, where there's least anxiety for me at least. Like, everything slows down, people talk rationally, people aren't doing silly things.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 Gurley says Second Life went from zero to 70 million dollars in revenue in under eighteen months. https://minutesof.com/q/d4116cc3-3cf5-4bab-b8c8-e208ff849148/ https://minutesof.com/q/d4116cc3-3cf5-4bab-b8c8-e208ff849148/ “I think the company went from 0 to 70,000,000 in revenue in less than eighteen months.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley says Second Life grew from zero to $70 million revenue in under eighteen months. https://minutesof.com/q/83098a01-2198-4e9a-b875-b25fbc1963e5/ https://minutesof.com/q/83098a01-2198-4e9a-b875-b25fbc1963e5/ “I think the company went from 0 to 70,000,000 in revenue in less than eighteen months. And so you had this vision and excitement about what was possible.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley explains Minecraft and Roblox succeeded with simpler primitives and child demographics versus Second Li https://minutesof.com/q/ab9ae27d-de5b-413e-b639-e412df314ecf/ https://minutesof.com/q/ab9ae27d-de5b-413e-b639-e412df314ecf/ “One, primitives are simpler. And so the creator tools at Second Life, you could do amazing rich things, but they were a little harder to use.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley is skeptical of avatar-based work meetings, having done eight such board meetings pre-Zoom. https://minutesof.com/q/81de191d-efc0-41b3-86e1-5142ed60f783/ https://minutesof.com/q/81de191d-efc0-41b3-86e1-5142ed60f783/ “And we've done them. Philip and I have done eight of those board meetings with avatars, and that was pre Zoom.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues simpler heuristics go viral faster than complex ones, favoring Discord over Meta's approach. https://minutesof.com/q/81ed8d25-0334-4f44-ad66-05719e0e9135/ https://minutesof.com/q/81ed8d25-0334-4f44-ad66-05719e0e9135/ “Personally, I've always found that simpler heuristics go viral faster than complex ones. And so when I equate what's happening in a Discord or a Twitter space with what's trying to be achieved by Meta.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley would bet on a 500 million user communication platform adding avatars over a perfect avatar system with https://minutesof.com/q/7521fcd3-90e3-4e74-9e69-15a5796b5ca9/ https://minutesof.com/q/7521fcd3-90e3-4e74-9e69-15a5796b5ca9/ “if I had to place a bet on whether someone that had 500,000,000 users on a digital place platform where people are communicating and that they might add avatars or some digital thing that makes it more immersive versus someone that built the perfect digital three d avatar immersive system but doesn't have the users yet?” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley says decentralization wasn't a limiting factor; Second Life creators were cashing out $100 million annu https://minutesof.com/q/f5ca9abd-574e-4071-88d1-8e874d30f95a/ https://minutesof.com/q/f5ca9abd-574e-4071-88d1-8e874d30f95a/ “If I made a list of 25 things that I think inhibited us from getting to a higher place, I don't think I'd put decentralization on that list.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley notes Second Life creators were cashing out $100 million annually from the platform. https://minutesof.com/q/a407ae36-8674-4b5a-9480-5c6893f9ef43/ https://minutesof.com/q/a407ae36-8674-4b5a-9480-5c6893f9ef43/ “The creators were cashing out a 100,000,000 a year last time I had access to the number. So Philip gave the GMV, but they were taking out a 100,000,000.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley says tokenization's intersection with marketplace and UGC companies is remarkably nuanced and tricky. https://minutesof.com/q/979f3803-4c5b-4227-af40-53d57a53a667/ https://minutesof.com/q/979f3803-4c5b-4227-af40-53d57a53a667/ “There's a ton of people that are thinking about tokenization and how that intersects with a marketplace company or a UGC company and a game company.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues tokenization with appreciating currency can provide massive advantage for marketplace bootstrapp https://minutesof.com/q/de31649a-67d7-4397-a2f4-9c8a48648cec/ https://minutesof.com/q/de31649a-67d7-4397-a2f4-9c8a48648cec/ “And so if you build the right incentive structure around your tokenization, that could be a massive advantage to an on ramp, especially if you're able to get your currency to appreciate over time.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley questions whether tokens have value without the ability to rake the system, citing Uniswap DAO. https://minutesof.com/q/9cea8102-8fdb-4ec2-afb0-1ff3e06aaaac/ https://minutesof.com/q/9cea8102-8fdb-4ec2-afb0-1ff3e06aaaac/ “It's interesting to me. I've been spending a lot of time trying to go deeper on crypto, and I think there's a fascinating question about whether or not a token will have value if it doesn't have the ability to eventually rake a system that it's involved in. And one of the great examples out there is the Uniswap DAO” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues governance tokens without economic rights would be worth a small fraction of tokens with rake ab https://minutesof.com/q/e3e37f10-6b7e-427a-893d-62e6ea783818/ https://minutesof.com/q/e3e37f10-6b7e-427a-893d-62e6ea783818/ “I think it's a fundamental question if that term weren't in the DAO or if instead it said the community will never rake a transaction, what would that do to the value of Uniswap?” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley argues governance tokens without economic rights would be worth a small fraction of tokens with revenue https://minutesof.com/q/8ba60c78-d89e-41fc-8e92-a0a9704fa5fb/ https://minutesof.com/q/8ba60c78-d89e-41fc-8e92-a0a9704fa5fb/ “And everything from my history of studying finance and economics would say that if you declared you'd never rake the system governance token, simply the right to kind of control a group or community would be worth a fraction, a small fraction of what an economic token would be.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley suggests if Solana eats Ethereum, the next competitor could make Solana equally uninteresting. https://minutesof.com/q/d5d7c03b-37ba-443e-be68-a0d5d23d3570/ https://minutesof.com/q/d5d7c03b-37ba-443e-be68-a0d5d23d3570/ “Yes. But I think there's an equally interesting counterpoint to that, that Solana might be cheaper than Ethereum, but then the son of Solana might make Solana equally uninteresting.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley warns that if Solana replaces Ethereum, it suggests all crypto tokens are worth far less due to race-to https://minutesof.com/q/21ece15c-63ae-4065-8f85-9b0a20a6a8dd/ https://minutesof.com/q/21ece15c-63ae-4065-8f85-9b0a20a6a8dd/ “And that's why someone said to me the other day, if Solana eats ETH, then all of these tokens are worth far less than we imagined because there's just a race to the bottom.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 07 Dec 2021 09:00:00 +0000 Gurley claims legacy IPO process transferred $200 billion over forty years to bank clients, $30 billion last y https://minutesof.com/q/96c4676b-42ca-4cb3-9b36-0a4d47a8a256/ https://minutesof.com/q/96c4676b-42ca-4cb3-9b36-0a4d47a8a256/ “the legacy IPO process has devolved into this process where a huge one day gains are transferred from the investment banks to their trading clients.” — CNBC Television Tue, 28 Sep 2021 12:18:07 +0000 Gurley states that IPO underpricing has transferred $200 billion over forty years, $30 billion in the last yea https://minutesof.com/q/0a8ea9f2-d725-47ea-ac40-ca1c61dc6fcc/ https://minutesof.com/q/0a8ea9f2-d725-47ea-ac40-ca1c61dc6fcc/ “And that number's 200,000,000,000 over the past forty years, 30,000,000,000 just last year. So it's actually gotten worse.” — CNBC Television Tue, 28 Sep 2021 12:18:07 +0000 Gurley argues direct listings use supply and demand pricing like bonds, which is how markets should work. https://minutesof.com/q/77590e77-8d48-46c9-a7f2-620491d6e9d8/ https://minutesof.com/q/77590e77-8d48-46c9-a7f2-620491d6e9d8/ “You can actually use supply and demand to determine price and allocation. And that's what the direct listing does. That's how every bond is priced.” — CNBC Television Tue, 28 Sep 2021 12:18:07 +0000 Gurley calculates that average IPO underpricing of 50% plus 7% fees equals a 57% cost of capital. https://minutesof.com/q/4c235011-66fc-469c-85a4-927566a6d454/ https://minutesof.com/q/4c235011-66fc-469c-85a4-927566a6d454/ “So last year in 2020, the average IPO was underpriced by 50%. If you add in a 7% fee on the investment bank, that's a 57% cost of capital.” — CNBC Television Tue, 28 Sep 2021 12:18:07 +0000 Gurley calculates 2020 average IPO had 57% cost of capital from 50% underpricing plus 7% bank fee. https://minutesof.com/q/539a38f3-e766-4f36-978a-3331b91ceb23/ https://minutesof.com/q/539a38f3-e766-4f36-978a-3331b91ceb23/ “last year in 2020, the average IPO was underpriced by 50%. If you add in a 7% fee on the investment bank, that's a 57% cost of capital.” — CNBC Television Tue, 28 Sep 2021 12:18:07 +0000 Gurley challenges anyone to find a finance professor who would justify a 57% cost of capital. https://minutesof.com/q/38c7a84f-d991-45c8-a2a3-dc1c45d4cbcd/ https://minutesof.com/q/38c7a84f-d991-45c8-a2a3-dc1c45d4cbcd/ “Find me any professor, any finance professor. We're a company that's got the possibility of going public, so it's highly legitimate.” — CNBC Television Tue, 28 Sep 2021 12:18:07 +0000 Gurley cites Jay Ritter's data showing direct listing companies wildly outperformed traditional IPO peers. https://minutesof.com/q/dca13555-75c7-4617-a304-00d7cd4fe2fb/ https://minutesof.com/q/dca13555-75c7-4617-a304-00d7cd4fe2fb/ “Jay Ritter put out some data at the end of August that you guys probably saw where he analyzed all the companies that have chosen the direct listing path and they've wildly outperformed their IPO peers,” — CNBC Television Tue, 28 Sep 2021 12:18:07 +0000 Gurley frames Prop 22 battle as SEIU, the largest lobbying spender in the US, versus tech companies https://minutesof.com/q/055af737-24e9-41d1-879b-66d64f3eab89/ https://minutesof.com/q/055af737-24e9-41d1-879b-66d64f3eab89/ “They're the largest, spender, in lobbying of any entity in The US against, you know, these companies that are trying to bring new job opportunities to people,” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 25 Aug 2021 23:40:05 +0000 Gurley says SEIU charges $420 annual fee to 2 million members in other industries to fund rideshare lawsuits https://minutesof.com/q/a4de01fc-c4b8-4c3a-925e-47e35fd61ea4/ https://minutesof.com/q/a4de01fc-c4b8-4c3a-925e-47e35fd61ea4/ “They want their minimum member fee is $420 a year that they charge their 2,000,000 members who, by the way, aren't in the ride sharing industry.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 25 Aug 2021 23:40:05 +0000 Gurley says SEIU charges $420 annual fee to 2 million members outside ridesharing to fund this fight. https://minutesof.com/q/42e3dc03-03cf-42bd-aad7-1ab46ab6cecb/ https://minutesof.com/q/42e3dc03-03cf-42bd-aad7-1ab46ab6cecb/ “They want their minimum member fee is $420 a year that they charge their 2,000,000 members who, by the way, aren't in the ride sharing industry. They're in hospitality and government and health care.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 25 Aug 2021 23:40:05 +0000 Gurley says SEIU charges $420 annual fee to 2 million members outside ridesharing to fund lawsuits in the indu https://minutesof.com/q/f3141acb-f523-4052-ad2c-b3e8b98c3cf9/ https://minutesof.com/q/f3141acb-f523-4052-ad2c-b3e8b98c3cf9/ “their minimum member fee is $420 a year that they charge their 2,000,000 members who, by the way, aren't in the ride sharing industry. They're in hospitality and government and health care.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 25 Aug 2021 23:40:05 +0000 Gurley cites Amazon paying $3,000 and McDonald's $500 bonuses to argue drivers prefer flexible work over shift https://minutesof.com/q/ca221d99-2f8a-40c8-a203-309ca55e191c/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca221d99-2f8a-40c8-a203-309ca55e191c/ “if if if these writer drivers wanted shift work, there's unbelievable opportunity out there right now. Amazon's paying $3,000 for you to become a shift worker.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 25 Aug 2021 23:40:05 +0000 Gurley argues shift work is incompatible with parenting, school, or supplemental income needs that flexible wo https://minutesof.com/q/b133d436-bc43-4c3a-8081-9a146e010e1c/ https://minutesof.com/q/b133d436-bc43-4c3a-8081-9a146e010e1c/ “You can't be a stay at home parent with shift work. You can't try and be an artist and meet supplemental income. You can't pay that.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 25 Aug 2021 23:40:05 +0000 Gurley reveals he took a personal Ethereum position after studying crypto, citing developer pragmatism over Bi https://minutesof.com/q/02fb07a8-fe9f-491e-ab59-ee626a059b90/ https://minutesof.com/q/02fb07a8-fe9f-491e-ab59-ee626a059b90/ “I was swayed by the arguments of the Ethereum crowd. And so if our and and and I've taken I've taken a personal position, not something at benchmark.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 25 Aug 2021 23:40:05 +0000 Gurley reveals personal position in Ethereum after studying crypto, says Ethereum crowd more pragmatic than Bi https://minutesof.com/q/9526d122-7505-4f88-9f8d-3bab7392ac7b/ https://minutesof.com/q/9526d122-7505-4f88-9f8d-3bab7392ac7b/ “We are in chain analysis, which you referenced. And I'm swayed by the Ethereum crowd. The parties that are involved there seem to be way more pragmatic.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 25 Aug 2021 23:40:05 +0000 Gurley says Robinhood makes 4x more revenue per options trade than stock trade due to payment for order flow. https://minutesof.com/q/ba0e1c79-fc7a-4b3c-a70c-291cb4d8c6f2/ https://minutesof.com/q/ba0e1c79-fc7a-4b3c-a70c-291cb4d8c6f2/ “So if you look at the Robinhood filings, they make about 4x the amount of revenue on a option trade than they do a stock trade.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 25 Aug 2021 23:40:05 +0000 Gurley says Robinhood makes 4x more revenue on options trades than stock trades despite democratization claims https://minutesof.com/q/8fef8dd8-1b0d-4bae-9b7b-6131e7e8682d/ https://minutesof.com/q/8fef8dd8-1b0d-4bae-9b7b-6131e7e8682d/ “they make about 4x the amount of revenue on a option trade than they do a stock trade. Why do I bring this up?” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 25 Aug 2021 23:40:05 +0000 Gurley claims remote work increases matching efficiency between skills and needs by two orders of magnitude https://minutesof.com/q/89241e59-4356-4bd2-9765-883dcb35bb15/ https://minutesof.com/q/89241e59-4356-4bd2-9765-883dcb35bb15/ “The the ability to match as I was talking about earlier like the ability to match skill type with need goes up, you know, two orders of magnitude when you just open it up to everyone on the planet which is is a really good thing actually.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 25 Aug 2021 23:40:05 +0000 Gurley cites twelve-year bull run and extreme SaaS multiples as major IPO incentives. https://minutesof.com/q/98a81965-4579-4224-bbf8-c90f072e0373/ https://minutesof.com/q/98a81965-4579-4224-bbf8-c90f072e0373/ “Add into that a roaring, screaming public market that's been on a bull run for, what, twelve years? And multiples in the public markets, especially in, the SaaS world that are out of this world.” — Axios Wed, 18 Aug 2021 17:10:45 +0000 Gurley says IPO pricing process has worsened over thirty years with inherent conflicts of interest. https://minutesof.com/q/ee18b10c-9901-4905-a82a-261d4a0aaf38/ https://minutesof.com/q/ee18b10c-9901-4905-a82a-261d4a0aaf38/ “And it's gotten worse, actually, over the past twenty or thirty years. The process itself has gotten more mundane.” — Axios Wed, 18 Aug 2021 17:10:45 +0000 Gurley reports seven of eight direct listings trade above first match, outperforming traditional IPO cohorts. https://minutesof.com/q/3ffd4ca4-02e8-4842-a747-265e84b0b63f/ https://minutesof.com/q/3ffd4ca4-02e8-4842-a747-265e84b0b63f/ “Yeah, there've been eight high profile ones. Seven of them interestingly are trading above that first match that they did, which is really astounding.” — Axios Wed, 18 Aug 2021 17:10:45 +0000 Gurley notes Japan's antitrust department recently launched investigation into standard IPO practices and conf https://minutesof.com/q/1a530a10-6ad2-48e2-896b-608ebb992b1c/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a530a10-6ad2-48e2-896b-608ebb992b1c/ “Interestingly, you know, as a side note, Japan's antitrust department just launched an investigation into standard IPO practices and these types of conflicts.” — Axios Wed, 18 Aug 2021 17:10:45 +0000 Gurley states 2020 average IPO was underpriced by 50 percent, a massive cost of capital. https://minutesof.com/q/079d9ef0-77b6-4d30-b1da-ab00eae303cf/ https://minutesof.com/q/079d9ef0-77b6-4d30-b1da-ab00eae303cf/ “In 2020, the average IPO was underpriced by 50%. You go to any finance school, they tell you you should care about the cost of capital. They teach you about weighted average cost of capital.” — Axios Wed, 18 Aug 2021 17:10:45 +0000 Gurley argues SPACs are only viable because broken IPO process makes direct listings look expensive by compari https://minutesof.com/q/e6b340fd-8b45-462b-afe0-e0f68cdfef6d/ https://minutesof.com/q/e6b340fd-8b45-462b-afe0-e0f68cdfef6d/ “But, you know, it appears to me that the thing is gonna, is either gonna slow down or they're gonna step in and do those types of changes you're talking about.” — Axios Wed, 18 Aug 2021 17:10:45 +0000 Gurley reveals Benchmark is a lead investor in Upwork under Hayden Brown. https://minutesof.com/q/1ec9e916-f03e-4fa1-98e7-41fa7464dd40/ https://minutesof.com/q/1ec9e916-f03e-4fa1-98e7-41fa7464dd40/ “We are actually a lead investor in Upwork. Hayden Brown's done an amazing job there the past couple of years.” — CNBC Television Fri, 09 Jul 2021 16:31:30 +0000 Gurley confirms Benchmark is a lead investor in Upwork and sees large opportunity in gig talent marketplaces. https://minutesof.com/q/5e82bc0b-b35a-4329-9037-428df27d8267/ https://minutesof.com/q/5e82bc0b-b35a-4329-9037-428df27d8267/ “We are actually a lead investor in Upwork. Hayden Brown's done an amazing job there the past couple of years. And we see this as a big, big opportunity.” — CNBC Television Fri, 09 Jul 2021 16:31:30 +0000 Gurley predicts more vertical-specific talent marketplaces will emerge, fragmenting LinkedIn's horizontal mode https://minutesof.com/q/ea43ecd9-3c10-467a-a69a-398a8b9c1251/ https://minutesof.com/q/ea43ecd9-3c10-467a-a69a-398a8b9c1251/ “People have talked about kind of, you know, the opening up of LinkedIn where people go into more specific verticals and are able to drive better outcomes, real work opportunities right away.” — CNBC Television Fri, 09 Jul 2021 16:31:30 +0000 Gurley contrasts InstaWORK's immediate job placement and training with traditional job listing sites like Link https://minutesof.com/q/27bcda42-4fc6-4702-b4a1-22aeb2bca405/ https://minutesof.com/q/27bcda42-4fc6-4702-b4a1-22aeb2bca405/ “The the the app tells you exactly where to go. The app teaches you how to do the job better before you actually show up.” — CNBC Television Fri, 09 Jul 2021 16:31:30 +0000 Gurley explains Didi's competitive strength internationally could separately impact Uber's valuation. https://minutesof.com/q/119cebc1-d2df-4d7b-a60e-9e4af73c108a/ https://minutesof.com/q/119cebc1-d2df-4d7b-a60e-9e4af73c108a/ “Uber also competes with DD internationally. And so whether or not this affects DD's ability to be competitive is a different force that could impact Uber's valuation.” — CNBC Television Fri, 09 Jul 2021 16:31:30 +0000 Gurley speculates China blocks US listings to keep capital and tax revenue domestic rather than offshore. https://minutesof.com/q/78170419-d2e3-4bdd-bd2d-9c0e78acb86c/ https://minutesof.com/q/78170419-d2e3-4bdd-bd2d-9c0e78acb86c/ “I wonder I and I don't have any data to back this up, but I wonder if part of what's going on is that the Chinese government wants to make sure that though that wealth is actually kept inside of China, taxed appropriately, and then able to be regenerative in that market.” — CNBC Television Fri, 09 Jul 2021 16:31:30 +0000 Gurley speculates Chinese government wants capital from tech companies kept and taxed domestically. https://minutesof.com/q/8b5c59af-c95e-47dc-b958-d172b8af4193/ https://minutesof.com/q/8b5c59af-c95e-47dc-b958-d172b8af4193/ “I wonder if part of what's going on is that the Chinese government wants to make sure that though that wealth is actually kept inside of China, taxed appropriately, and then able to be regenerative in that market.” — CNBC Television Fri, 09 Jul 2021 16:31:30 +0000 And I said, well, what does Airbnb have to accomplish to earn out this valuation that it has? https://minutesof.com/q/dd503956-1576-48c7-905f-de3208660ae4/ https://minutesof.com/q/dd503956-1576-48c7-905f-de3208660ae4/ “And I said, well, what does Airbnb have to accomplish to earn out this valuation that it has?” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 May 2021 16:26:01 +0000 Gurley notes Lemonade, Unity, and Palantir are still trading at 20 times sales despite falling 60%. https://minutesof.com/q/daea9c72-cc8e-4255-bd8b-97eb4a9c65bd/ https://minutesof.com/q/daea9c72-cc8e-4255-bd8b-97eb4a9c65bd/ “And yesterday in preparing for this, I was looking at some of the stocks that are outliers on price to sales and lemonade, unity and Palantir, which have come in 60% are still at 20 times over sales.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 May 2021 16:26:01 +0000 Gurley notes Lemonade, Unity, and Palantir are down 60% but still trade at 20 times sales. https://minutesof.com/q/87b07694-930e-4e47-a008-121e7f06003d/ https://minutesof.com/q/87b07694-930e-4e47-a008-121e7f06003d/ “I was looking at some of the stocks that are outliers on price to sales and lemonade, unity and Palantir, which have come in 60% are still at 20 times over sales.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 May 2021 16:26:01 +0000 Gurley says over half of Robinhood's revenue comes from payment for order flow for options, which history show https://minutesof.com/q/f8d3cae2-6d9a-413e-a911-77f5423caa4a/ https://minutesof.com/q/f8d3cae2-6d9a-413e-a911-77f5423caa4a/ “Over half of the revenue that Robinhood has reported is payment for order flow for options.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 May 2021 16:26:01 +0000 You know, it's interesting. I stumbled across a piece that Citadel had sent to the SEC in 2005, where they arg https://minutesof.com/q/04d390d1-677b-4a7c-8a71-7cef7733e4b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/04d390d1-677b-4a7c-8a71-7cef7733e4b1/ “You know, it's interesting. I stumbled across a piece that Citadel had sent to the SEC in 2005, where they argued that it should be illegal because of inherent conflicts of interest.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 May 2021 16:26:01 +0000 Gurley notes Citadel argued to the SEC in 2005 that payment for order flow should be illegal. https://minutesof.com/q/76129b3f-2e8f-4c47-bd6f-b5d1ed647c70/ https://minutesof.com/q/76129b3f-2e8f-4c47-bd6f-b5d1ed647c70/ “I stumbled across a piece that Citadel had sent to the SEC in 2005, where they argued that it should be illegal because of inherent conflicts of interest.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 May 2021 16:26:01 +0000 Gurley argues Google and Facebook's power led investors to wrongly believe consumer businesses are over. https://minutesof.com/q/34a66b21-08cd-4cb8-b5b6-80047409236f/ https://minutesof.com/q/34a66b21-08cd-4cb8-b5b6-80047409236f/ “I think over the past three or four years, mainly because of the power of Google and Facebook that a lot of people have come to tell themselves that consumers over.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 May 2021 16:26:01 +0000 Gurley argues no one would choose traditional IPOs anymore because in 2020 the average IPO was underpriced by https://minutesof.com/q/ccf2dac6-22bd-40fd-8701-5b455822241d/ https://minutesof.com/q/ccf2dac6-22bd-40fd-8701-5b455822241d/ “I think to the extent that we can effectively integrate raising primary capital with the direct listing, no one would choose a traditional IPO process anymore because it's gotten perversely worse in 2020, the average IPO was underpriced by 50%.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 May 2021 16:26:01 +0000 Gurley claims people who benefited from $30 billion in IPO underpricing are fighting regulatory changes. https://minutesof.com/q/a36419d9-05f5-43b4-95ac-7f9cde9b6a9e/ https://minutesof.com/q/a36419d9-05f5-43b4-95ac-7f9cde9b6a9e/ “There will be people that will fight it from a regulatory standpoint. And quite frankly, Brad, they're fighting the SPACs from a regulatory standpoint.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 May 2021 16:26:01 +0000 Gurley states 64% of Robinhood revenue comes from options trading despite democratization claims. https://minutesof.com/q/f4d0930f-5e4c-4e26-8bfa-0539525e3f87/ https://minutesof.com/q/f4d0930f-5e4c-4e26-8bfa-0539525e3f87/ “it's now known that 64% of their revenue comes from options trading. And so the company wants you to believe and and goes on public television and claims that their mission is to democratize investing.” — Bloomberg Tech Sat, 06 Feb 2021 00:47:45 +0000 Gurley cites IPO underpricing rising from $2B in 2016 to $30B last year, showing the problem is worsening. https://minutesof.com/q/83577fbc-53ee-4db3-9aff-92429d9038df/ https://minutesof.com/q/83577fbc-53ee-4db3-9aff-92429d9038df/ “under first day under pricing in 2,016, 2,000,000,000. 17, 4,000,000,000. 18, 7,000,000,000. 19, 9,000,000,000. Last year, 30,000,000,000. So the problem's getting ginormously worse.” — Bloomberg Tech Sat, 06 Feb 2021 00:47:45 +0000 Gurley provides IPO underpricing data showing escalation from $2B in 2016 to $30B last year. https://minutesof.com/q/0e3bab41-bfa3-4e89-92a6-cf4d2d4bc106/ https://minutesof.com/q/0e3bab41-bfa3-4e89-92a6-cf4d2d4bc106/ “under first day under pricing in 2,016, 2,000,000,000. 17, 4,000,000,000. 18, 7,000,000,000. 19, 9,000,000,000. Last year, 30,000,000,000.” — Bloomberg Tech Sat, 06 Feb 2021 00:47:45 +0000 Gurley cites IPO underpricing growing from $2B in 2016 to $30B in 2020, with one deal losing $9B. https://minutesof.com/q/0973cec8-f7c8-442d-acd4-904e11fdafcc/ https://minutesof.com/q/0973cec8-f7c8-442d-acd4-904e11fdafcc/ “Last year, 30,000,000,000. So the problem's getting ginormously worse. And then yesterday, on the Hong Kong exchange, Kuaishou, $5,000,000,000 deal, $9,000,000,000 underpricing on one deal.” — Bloomberg Tech Sat, 06 Feb 2021 00:47:45 +0000 Gurley cites Kuaishou's $5B IPO with $9B underpricing as extreme example of the problem. https://minutesof.com/q/a08c4375-3236-4e34-8e0d-3f807d6610b0/ https://minutesof.com/q/a08c4375-3236-4e34-8e0d-3f807d6610b0/ “And then yesterday, on the Hong Kong exchange, Kuaishou, $5,000,000,000 deal, $9,000,000,000 underpricing on one deal.” — Bloomberg Tech Sat, 06 Feb 2021 00:47:45 +0000 Gurley argues banks advise 30x oversubscription, contradicting four hundred years of economic principles on su https://minutesof.com/q/29524cfe-9553-4ffa-aff6-5ee750cc987f/ https://minutesof.com/q/29524cfe-9553-4ffa-aff6-5ee750cc987f/ “And no one, no one in four hundred years of economics would suggest that the best practice would be to have a 30 x supply demand imbalance.” — Bloomberg Tech Sat, 06 Feb 2021 00:47:45 +0000 Gurley argues regulation typically locks in incumbents who write rules blocking new entrants. https://minutesof.com/q/2c5c683e-4d2d-4ad7-9b02-d679af50346a/ https://minutesof.com/q/2c5c683e-4d2d-4ad7-9b02-d679af50346a/ “regulation's the friend of the incumbent. Most of the time when Washington DC leans into a new to to a new industry, you lock in the incumbents, and and the rules are written by the incumbents and make it very hard for new entrants to come up behind them.” — Bloomberg Tech Sat, 06 Feb 2021 00:47:45 +0000 Gurley argues regulation is the friend of the incumbent, locking in dominant players when Washington intervene https://minutesof.com/q/ca239027-75a6-4de6-b6be-80e6280af82c/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca239027-75a6-4de6-b6be-80e6280af82c/ “Most of the time when Washington DC leans into a new to to a new industry, you lock in the incumbents,” — Bloomberg Tech Sat, 06 Feb 2021 00:47:45 +0000 Gurley argues regulation locks in incumbents and makes entry harder, so more regulation favors existing stocks https://minutesof.com/q/cce45c87-478a-4494-b39f-92c15095aaa0/ https://minutesof.com/q/cce45c87-478a-4494-b39f-92c15095aaa0/ “So I would say the more regulation actually, the more you wanna own the stock.” — Bloomberg Tech Sat, 06 Feb 2021 00:47:45 +0000 Gurley says traditional IPOs only provide access to investment banks' biggest customers, not all investors. https://minutesof.com/q/7a32e6e1-77c2-45e5-9180-840f90a2c81b/ https://minutesof.com/q/7a32e6e1-77c2-45e5-9180-840f90a2c81b/ “The the the primary issues with the traditional IPO are twofold and the SEC nailed them both in their in their draft today, which is that it doesn't provide access to all investors.” — CNBC Television Tue, 22 Dec 2020 21:56:04 +0000 Gurley says traditional IPOs only provide access to select group who are investment bank's biggest customers. https://minutesof.com/q/d7b2d828-77ef-416c-beb3-2214432388c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/d7b2d828-77ef-416c-beb3-2214432388c6/ “It's just a select group of people that that happen to be the biggest customers of the investment bank.” — CNBC Television Tue, 22 Dec 2020 21:56:04 +0000 Gurley argues IPO pricing relies on human guessing rather than modern market mechanisms. https://minutesof.com/q/792c9b17-1686-41b5-96ba-bac0fa7017ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/792c9b17-1686-41b5-96ba-bac0fa7017ed/ “And the price and allocation are determined by humans just guessing, which makes no sense whatsoever in the modern age.” — CNBC Television Tue, 22 Dec 2020 21:56:04 +0000 Gurley predicts retail investors will access IPOs directly through platforms like Robinhood. https://minutesof.com/q/4bf218e3-59dc-46d4-bd34-6e510122c295/ https://minutesof.com/q/4bf218e3-59dc-46d4-bd34-6e510122c295/ “In the future, you'll be able to go on Robinhood, if you wanna participate in IPO, you can.” — CNBC Television Tue, 22 Dec 2020 21:56:04 +0000 Gurley notes order matching systems existed for twenty years and corporate bonds already use supply-demand pri https://minutesof.com/q/8ca7d641-97de-45b4-b1e8-0c8f29be3965/ https://minutesof.com/q/8ca7d641-97de-45b4-b1e8-0c8f29be3965/ “Let's let supply and demand matching, which, you know, unfortunately have been available order matching systems for for over twenty years.” — CNBC Television Tue, 22 Dec 2020 21:56:04 +0000 Gurley cites IPO underpricing totaling $6B in 2018, $7B in 2019, and over $34B this year. https://minutesof.com/q/3d0bd98a-e157-4e98-86d7-f1e81f698814/ https://minutesof.com/q/3d0bd98a-e157-4e98-86d7-f1e81f698814/ “In in in 2018, it was 6,000,000,000. In 2019, it was 7,000,000,000. This year, it's gonna be over $34,000,000,000 in one day giveaways.” — CNBC Television Tue, 22 Dec 2020 21:56:04 +0000 Gurley states 2020 IPO underpricing will exceed $34 billion in one-day giveaways, predicts fiduciary duty laws https://minutesof.com/q/53f94c90-eae1-4494-960f-3749350c5ed0/ https://minutesof.com/q/53f94c90-eae1-4494-960f-3749350c5ed0/ “This year, it's gonna be over $34,000,000,000 in one day giveaways. You know, if you you wanna talk about legal issues, I think people are gonna come after boards, for fiduciary duty violations” — CNBC Television Tue, 22 Dec 2020 21:56:04 +0000 Gurley predicts boards will face fiduciary duty claims for using traditional IPOs that underprice shares. https://minutesof.com/q/2c687f50-8386-4ad9-8cd7-8c4f603f0faa/ https://minutesof.com/q/2c687f50-8386-4ad9-8cd7-8c4f603f0faa/ “I think people are gonna come after boards, for fiduciary duty violations for knowingly entering into a process where you're selling a corporate asset at a massive discount.” — CNBC Television Tue, 22 Dec 2020 21:56:04 +0000 Gurley frames IPO underpricing as knowingly selling corporate assets at massive discount. https://minutesof.com/q/bcdd75e5-353b-4919-b4cf-ca13af758d1f/ https://minutesof.com/q/bcdd75e5-353b-4919-b4cf-ca13af758d1f/ “for knowingly entering into a process where you're selling a corporate asset at a massive discount.” — CNBC Television Tue, 22 Dec 2020 21:56:04 +0000 Gurley argues SPAC market emerged because traditional IPO underpricing was worsening. https://minutesof.com/q/d15038f8-7f3d-4e58-ac1d-2d07eb3acf43/ https://minutesof.com/q/d15038f8-7f3d-4e58-ac1d-2d07eb3acf43/ “I think one of the big reasons the SPAC market opened up was because the underpricing was getting worse and worse and worse.” — CNBC Television Tue, 22 Dec 2020 21:56:04 +0000 Gurley says direct listings with primary offerings are now clearly superior to both IPOs and SPACs. https://minutesof.com/q/a30c1c0c-debd-48d8-a19f-51eba7613f62/ https://minutesof.com/q/a30c1c0c-debd-48d8-a19f-51eba7613f62/ “Today's a super important day because I think it'll be very hard for anyone to argue whether it's a traditional IPO or a SPAC that that's gonna be better than a direct listing with a primary offering.” — CNBC Television Tue, 22 Dec 2020 21:56:04 +0000 Gurley states venture-backed IPOs left $6 billion on the table in underpricing over two years. https://minutesof.com/q/4ff453fc-1363-40d7-bcf6-dfe3f53e125f/ https://minutesof.com/q/4ff453fc-1363-40d7-bcf6-dfe3f53e125f/ “So last year and the year before, there were about $6,000,000,000 in underpricing across all of venture backed companies. Jay Ritter at the University of Florida aggregates this data.” — Bloomberg Tech Fri, 16 Oct 2020 00:08:57 +0000 Gurley says Snowflake's underpricing alone transferred $4.5 billion to allocated investors overnight. https://minutesof.com/q/3d9c1aed-62c9-4df3-91db-0af9aabcafff/ https://minutesof.com/q/3d9c1aed-62c9-4df3-91db-0af9aabcafff/ “Snowflake alone was 4,500,000,000, just one company. And so the day after the IPO, the people that were allocated the stock the night before have 4,500,000,000 in wealth they didn't have before.” — Bloomberg Tech Fri, 16 Oct 2020 00:08:57 +0000 Gurley argues IPO allocations transferred $4.5 billion in wealth from Snowflake to allocation recipients overn https://minutesof.com/q/f7b23592-81ae-4b10-bbbe-498acc2d6dbd/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7b23592-81ae-4b10-bbbe-498acc2d6dbd/ “And so the day after the IPO, the people that were allocated the stock the night before have 4,500,000,000 in wealth they didn't have before. And that money didn't just come out of nowhere.” — Bloomberg Tech Fri, 16 Oct 2020 00:08:57 +0000 Gurley describes direct listing as simply matching supply and demand unlike traditional IPOs. https://minutesof.com/q/b649059b-4589-4b5e-b7ef-eace447aca98/ https://minutesof.com/q/b649059b-4589-4b5e-b7ef-eace447aca98/ “We have a wonderful new age alternative called the direct listing that just matches supply and demand.” — Bloomberg Tech Fri, 16 Oct 2020 00:08:57 +0000 Gurley argues founders who stay private longer are shirking their duty to maximize shareholder value. https://minutesof.com/q/5fefb43d-4ee3-43e3-8258-e5aea88a1f04/ https://minutesof.com/q/5fefb43d-4ee3-43e3-8258-e5aea88a1f04/ “But that's the behavior of some of the founders in Silicon Valley that buy into the state private thing. Like the minute you started giving stock to your employees, you're in the game” — Bloomberg Tech Fri, 16 Oct 2020 00:08:57 +0000 Gurley argues founders who stay private longer fail their duty to maximize shareholder value for all constitue https://minutesof.com/q/de2b1b00-e9cf-4a1f-9c8d-6092f7a32577/ https://minutesof.com/q/de2b1b00-e9cf-4a1f-9c8d-6092f7a32577/ “Like the minute you started giving stock to your employees, you're in the game And your job is to maximize shareholder value for all your constituents, your investors, your employees, everything else.” — Bloomberg Tech Fri, 16 Oct 2020 00:08:57 +0000 Gurley argues 5 million people choosing to drive during low unemployment disproves claims it's a bad job. https://minutesof.com/q/6fc63c29-d900-4e0e-8fc6-7887dfe6caa3/ https://minutesof.com/q/6fc63c29-d900-4e0e-8fc6-7887dfe6caa3/ “One is, you know, 5,000,000 people committed to being drivers during the lowest unemployment in our lifetime.” — Bloomberg Tech Fri, 16 Oct 2020 00:08:57 +0000 Gurley claims unions that don't represent gig workers wrote AB5 legislation targeting that industry. https://minutesof.com/q/83ca26ed-50ba-4257-8b34-38b4cba4df6f/ https://minutesof.com/q/83ca26ed-50ba-4257-8b34-38b4cba4df6f/ “The SEIU and other unions leaned on the Sacramento legislature to write a law targeting an industry they don't even represent, which I think is also crazy.” — Bloomberg Tech Fri, 16 Oct 2020 00:08:57 +0000 Gurley believes Microsoft antitrust restrictions enabled Facebook, Google, and Amazon to emerge as dominant pl https://minutesof.com/q/916601b2-7af9-4fe3-8910-e55aaa30153e/ https://minutesof.com/q/916601b2-7af9-4fe3-8910-e55aaa30153e/ “I actually believe in my heart of hearts that the government restricting Microsoft's ability to leverage their way through the browser, open the door for Facebook, Google, Amazon.” — Bloomberg Tech Fri, 16 Oct 2020 00:08:57 +0000 Gurley believes government restricting Microsoft opened the door for Facebook, Google, and Amazon. https://minutesof.com/q/1b71679f-0b73-46f7-a0b4-90f535c7c549/ https://minutesof.com/q/1b71679f-0b73-46f7-a0b4-90f535c7c549/ “If they had been able to tie the browser to search the way they did, the way they went after Netscape aggressively, I think they would have succeeded. They're really good at that stuff.” — Bloomberg Tech Fri, 16 Oct 2020 00:08:57 +0000 Gurley says current markets show speculative risk appetite not seen since 1999 tech boom. https://minutesof.com/q/b7c3fbd0-c069-43cc-9b31-6d2d59678c38/ https://minutesof.com/q/b7c3fbd0-c069-43cc-9b31-6d2d59678c38/ “There is certainly what I would call a highly speculative nature to the markets today, a willingness to take on risk, a willingness to get excited about projects that may be five or ten years into the future that we haven't seen since the '99 time frame.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Oct 2020 16:26:10 +0000 Gurley states IPO underpricing totaled $24 billion in 2020, up from $6-7 billion prior years. https://minutesof.com/q/4c7d550d-1ac3-4b33-af87-2fc624d70460/ https://minutesof.com/q/4c7d550d-1ac3-4b33-af87-2fc624d70460/ “Ironically, you know, in year to date, 2020, the total underpricing dollars on the traditional IPO is $24,000,000,000 And it was in the 6 to 7 range the past two years up from three the year before.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Oct 2020 16:26:10 +0000 Gurley notes the number of public companies has declined by half over time. https://minutesof.com/q/989f846b-6d69-464b-ac04-697c1d8bb879/ https://minutesof.com/q/989f846b-6d69-464b-ac04-697c1d8bb879/ “We have a situation where the number of public companies today is half of what it was a while ago.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Oct 2020 16:26:10 +0000 Gurley links decline in public companies to $200 million average IPO underpricing tax. https://minutesof.com/q/b04e1843-3d8c-4f96-92d5-a191769c4d91/ https://minutesof.com/q/b04e1843-3d8c-4f96-92d5-a191769c4d91/ “And you ask, well, why is that? Well, the average IPO this year had to underprice by 200,000,000.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Oct 2020 16:26:10 +0000 Gurley characterizes the average IPO underpricing as a $200 million unnecessary tax. https://minutesof.com/q/92005dc1-7ecc-4658-aa38-2c5a5a3b15c4/ https://minutesof.com/q/92005dc1-7ecc-4658-aa38-2c5a5a3b15c4/ “So you have a $200,000,000 tax to go public through the traditional IPO route, which is completely unnecessary.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Oct 2020 16:26:10 +0000 Gurley argues SPAC craze exists because traditional IPO route allocates $200 million to bankers' friends. https://minutesof.com/q/74f09d86-3b95-495f-b0a8-44cb09f6058f/ https://minutesof.com/q/74f09d86-3b95-495f-b0a8-44cb09f6058f/ “I think is the SPAC craze because you've created this massive pricing umbrella arbitrage to get a company public where the traditional route means someone gets to allocate $200,000,000 to their buddies.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Oct 2020 16:26:10 +0000 Gurley argues SPAC sponsors are capturing allocation power from Goldman and Morgan Stanley. https://minutesof.com/q/223e430e-4bc5-4893-b5c2-11fbb3e3d1ca/ https://minutesof.com/q/223e430e-4bc5-4893-b5c2-11fbb3e3d1ca/ “Well, if someone gets to do that, the SPAC sponsors are saying, Hey Goldman, Hey Morgan, you don't get to allocate that money to your friends. I'm gonna allocate it to mine.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Oct 2020 16:26:10 +0000 Gurley explains SPACs emerged as sponsors arbitraging the $200 million allocation that banks give their friend https://minutesof.com/q/8a3fc02d-f7f1-4a22-8a90-3fedff8dbe1b/ https://minutesof.com/q/8a3fc02d-f7f1-4a22-8a90-3fedff8dbe1b/ “Well, if someone gets to do that, the SPAC sponsors are saying, Hey Goldman, Hey Morgan, you don't get to allocate that money to your friends.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Oct 2020 16:26:10 +0000 Gurley argues that during risk expansion periods, average entrepreneur quality declines as easy capital attrac https://minutesof.com/q/0bfed641-7f55-4b67-909f-74a9e04415bb/ https://minutesof.com/q/0bfed641-7f55-4b67-909f-74a9e04415bb/ “And I think you actually, that entire time that risk is increasing, the quality of your average entrepreneur that's getting funded is actually going down.” — Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley argues that entrepreneur quality declines during boom times and improves when risk appetite falls. https://minutesof.com/q/4667afd8-9c03-452b-b967-931e69d5c496/ https://minutesof.com/q/4667afd8-9c03-452b-b967-931e69d5c496/ “I think you actually, that entire time that risk is increasing, the quality of your average entrepreneur that's getting funded is actually going down.” — Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley argues downturns filter for innate entrepreneurs rather than quick-buck seekers. https://minutesof.com/q/9d5dbf52-16e6-4100-9924-a444b9cc7481/ https://minutesof.com/q/9d5dbf52-16e6-4100-9924-a444b9cc7481/ “And what happens when risk goes off is the only people that are left starting the companies are the ones that are choosing it innately as the way of life they want to have and not just because they think they can get a quick buck.” — Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley advises against small layoffs of five or ten percent because they cause cultural pain without meaningfu https://minutesof.com/q/bd9e4749-3a17-485d-aa30-7ac85f06bff3/ https://minutesof.com/q/bd9e4749-3a17-485d-aa30-7ac85f06bff3/ “One piece of advice though is never do a five or 10% layoff because it doesn't create any meaningful gain, yet you go through all the excruciating cultural pain.” — Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley calls the stay-private-longer strategy a fraud because private company cap tables are designed only to https://minutesof.com/q/0a98d7db-dda9-4e01-b8ac-91a07bbe11ff/ https://minutesof.com/q/0a98d7db-dda9-4e01-b8ac-91a07bbe11ff/ “It's times like this where that strategy, I think, gets exposed as the fraud that it was precisely because private company capitalization charts don't go down very well. They're designed to really only go up.” — Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley explains that IPOs unlock down-round complexity by converting all preferred shares to common stock. https://minutesof.com/q/ceeb44b0-aeb1-48b3-ba3b-8b3fb37f4081/ https://minutesof.com/q/ceeb44b0-aeb1-48b3-ba3b-8b3fb37f4081/ “And one of the things that the IPO does is unlocks all of that complexity and converts everyone to common.” — Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley argues that surviving downturns is easier as a public company because IPOs convert complex structures t https://minutesof.com/q/c4f4e35d-94da-41c5-8a0d-6b660bd883fa/ https://minutesof.com/q/c4f4e35d-94da-41c5-8a0d-6b660bd883fa/ “And it turns out that surviving down periods is a lot easier as a public company than a private company because you've converted all that away.” — Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley argues it is easier to survive downturns as a public company than as a late-stage private company. https://minutesof.com/q/7560c377-c112-4f22-983f-c9ccc8fc3d73/ https://minutesof.com/q/7560c377-c112-4f22-983f-c9ccc8fc3d73/ “And so oddly, it's easier as a public company than a late stage private company to go through these types of periods.” — Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley notes that OpenTable's two venture-backed competitors went bankrupt during the 2001 downturn, enabling https://minutesof.com/q/ff56711a-346e-4bbd-86a0-abe33e996a33/ https://minutesof.com/q/ff56711a-346e-4bbd-86a0-abe33e996a33/ “And as a result, you know, I think there were network effects, but nowhere in the history of OpenTable success story does anyone read two companies went out of business, but that's what happened.” — Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley recounts how Zappos extended payables to 90 days versus industry standard of 45 during crisis. https://minutesof.com/q/90c31104-2ec8-4b22-83e5-34db4f08d12c/ https://minutesof.com/q/90c31104-2ec8-4b22-83e5-34db4f08d12c/ “And I don't remember the exact number, but he said something like 90. And having worked with Nordstrom at nordstrom.com, I knew the industry standard was like half that, like 45.” — Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley recounts how Tony Hsieh doubled Zappos's payment terms from 45 to 90 days by threatening vendors during https://minutesof.com/q/08532ec0-b7f0-4db5-b82c-d416c2b7f868/ https://minutesof.com/q/08532ec0-b7f0-4db5-b82c-d416c2b7f868/ “And I said, how in the world did you accomplish that? And he said, I just called them all and said, if they didn't move to 90, we were going out of business.” — Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley invokes Graham and Dodd's principle to be greedy when others are fearful as guidance for entrepreneurs https://minutesof.com/q/84800ba6-8f76-49f6-83c3-2d6cabbf1f0f/ https://minutesof.com/q/84800ba6-8f76-49f6-83c3-2d6cabbf1f0f/ “Patrick, I'd leave everybody with this final thought. I think it was Graham and Dodd before Buffett that said, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” — Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley urges entrepreneurs to ask what it means to be greedy when everyone else is fearful. https://minutesof.com/q/2829da53-54d5-4689-bd46-7d588653e880/ https://minutesof.com/q/2829da53-54d5-4689-bd46-7d588653e880/ “I think it was Graham and Dodd before Buffett that said, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” — Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley traces Silicon Valley's dissatisfaction with IPO process back two decades, citing eBay and Hambrick cri https://minutesof.com/q/093b9558-e6b6-489b-b48d-4795396b0e93/ https://minutesof.com/q/093b9558-e6b6-489b-b48d-4795396b0e93/ “Silicon Valley's been, unhappy with the way the IPO works for a couple of decades now. I dug up, you know, some conversations Pierro Midiard had at eBay calling it undemocratic.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 02 Oct 2019 18:47:29 +0000 Gurley traces Silicon Valley's criticism of IPO unfairness through eBay, Hambrick and Quist, and Google's Dutc https://minutesof.com/q/f9cc217d-d366-4933-abb8-1c623971a9b6/ https://minutesof.com/q/f9cc217d-d366-4933-abb8-1c623971a9b6/ “Pierro Midiard had at eBay calling it undemocratic. You know, Hambrick and Quist, Bill Hambrick, twenty years ago called the IPO an insider's game.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 02 Oct 2019 18:47:29 +0000 Gurley says 2019 IPOs transferred $6 billion in first-day wealth despite losses from Uber, Lyft, and Peloton. https://minutesof.com/q/03f320c0-a1de-4562-8c71-943b00be8e90/ https://minutesof.com/q/03f320c0-a1de-4562-8c71-943b00be8e90/ “if you look at the first day pop net of the losses of the companies that have broken issue, Uber, Lyft, and and, Peloton, it's 6,000,000,000 to the positive, $6,000,000,000 in first day wealth transfer net gains.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 02 Oct 2019 18:47:29 +0000 Gurley argues staying private forever is unhealthy and going public is advantageous for companies. https://minutesof.com/q/816a792e-58cd-478b-9851-1f34ea3f4309/ https://minutesof.com/q/816a792e-58cd-478b-9851-1f34ea3f4309/ “But I don't think it's healthy for companies to stay private forever. I think it's super advantageous to companies to pass through and become public.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 02 Oct 2019 18:47:29 +0000 Gurley argues staying private indefinitely is unhealthy and going public is advantageous for companies. https://minutesof.com/q/64f9a508-5d14-4cc2-8d0c-d4cd6de94e6e/ https://minutesof.com/q/64f9a508-5d14-4cc2-8d0c-d4cd6de94e6e/ “I don't think it's healthy for companies to stay private forever. I think it's super advantageous to companies to pass through and become public.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 02 Oct 2019 18:47:29 +0000 Gurley says going public increases pressure and transparency, elevating companies to new performance levels. https://minutesof.com/q/6c46ad2a-b6e9-4abc-a441-33b30a509a2e/ https://minutesof.com/q/6c46ad2a-b6e9-4abc-a441-33b30a509a2e/ “I one of the reasons I encourage companies going public is because I think it ups their game. I think it it presents more pressure. It forces them to be more disclosive, more transparent.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 02 Oct 2019 18:47:29 +0000 Gurley cites Zuckerberg saying Facebook went public two years late, with market pressure revealing mobile issu https://minutesof.com/q/ea2fe518-106e-4c69-9911-4babd69fffdd/ https://minutesof.com/q/ea2fe518-106e-4c69-9911-4babd69fffdd/ “Even Zuckerberg was quoted as saying he waited two years too late to go public.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 02 Oct 2019 18:47:29 +0000 Gurley criticizes SoftBank's strategy of deploying hundreds of millions, which forces companies into massive l https://minutesof.com/q/09a728b9-c504-4c7f-b274-57c792a13177/ https://minutesof.com/q/09a728b9-c504-4c7f-b274-57c792a13177/ “I've I've been quoted publicly, like, they've, you know, played a strategy where you hand hundreds of millions of dollars to a company and say, here, go win in the market with this.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 02 Oct 2019 18:47:29 +0000 Gurley explains large capital deployments force massive losses since companies lack infrastructure to absorb f https://minutesof.com/q/7df9b2f2-0af2-4205-a2dc-91e161392ef3/ https://minutesof.com/q/7df9b2f2-0af2-4205-a2dc-91e161392ef3/ “the only way to deploy that amount of capital is to take on massive losses. There's there's no way to you know, these companies don't have massive infrastructure.” — Bloomberg Tech Wed, 02 Oct 2019 18:47:29 +0000 Gurley argues traditional IPOs lack market-based price discovery and equal access for all participants. https://minutesof.com/q/b682796e-62fb-459b-92fc-a0888a6779e1/ https://minutesof.com/q/b682796e-62fb-459b-92fc-a0888a6779e1/ “In the traditional IPO process, neither of those things are true. You don't have a market based price discovery, and you don't have open and equal access to all.” — CNBC Television Wed, 02 Oct 2019 17:35:22 +0000 Gurley illustrates direct listings allow any retail investor to participate at opening price, unlike IPOs. https://minutesof.com/q/feb9c1b1-ad2e-49d6-aec1-12412cc95c0a/ https://minutesof.com/q/feb9c1b1-ad2e-49d6-aec1-12412cc95c0a/ “If you put in a bid at $380.01 from a Robinhood account and they open at 38, you're filled. That is absolutely not true in the IPO process.” — CNBC Television Wed, 02 Oct 2019 17:35:22 +0000 Gurley cites $171 billion in first-day wealth transfer over thirty-eight years from IPO underpricing. https://minutesof.com/q/4be47518-8695-43d0-a49c-75d89b7fc9c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/4be47518-8695-43d0-a49c-75d89b7fc9c6/ “You know, thirty, forty years over the past thirty eight years, 171,000,000,000 in First Day Wealth Transfer.” — CNBC Television Wed, 02 Oct 2019 17:35:22 +0000 Gurley cites $171 billion in first-day wealth transfer over 38 years, $15 billion in the past three years. https://minutesof.com/q/c0faaaec-cd69-4d2b-8d11-eed9da7c6e8f/ https://minutesof.com/q/c0faaaec-cd69-4d2b-8d11-eed9da7c6e8f/ “You know, thirty, forty years over the past thirty eight years, 171,000,000,000 in First Day Wealth Transfer. And in the past 50 in the past three years, that's 15,000,000,000.” — CNBC Television Wed, 02 Oct 2019 17:35:22 +0000 Gurley argues IPO process has devolved from wide marketing to hand allocation among 10 to 15 firms. https://minutesof.com/q/1cb9f1de-321f-4998-ac94-64968dda526f/ https://minutesof.com/q/1cb9f1de-321f-4998-ac94-64968dda526f/ “I think there that it used to be that the IPO process was about disseminating and marketing and selling far and wide, and it's become a game of just hand allocating shares to the same 10 or 15 firms.” — CNBC Television Wed, 02 Oct 2019 17:35:22 +0000 Gurley explains Barry McCarthy discovered existing daily stock opening processes can enable direct listings. https://minutesof.com/q/85abc8a5-c40e-4a03-a476-d2dff8f01516/ https://minutesof.com/q/85abc8a5-c40e-4a03-a476-d2dff8f01516/ “What Barry McCarthy unlocked and and discovered was that the very same processes that you use at the NYSE and the Nasdaq to open stocks each and every day can actually do the match that that that do a direct listing opening.” — CNBC Television Wed, 02 Oct 2019 17:35:22 +0000 Gurley explains direct listings use existing daily stock-opening processes, removing steps rather than adding https://minutesof.com/q/26a53971-35fd-40d0-b943-7626e9f53c4b/ https://minutesof.com/q/26a53971-35fd-40d0-b943-7626e9f53c4b/ “What Barry McCarthy unlocked and and discovered was that the very same processes that you use at the NYSE and the Nasdaq to open stocks each and every day can actually do the match that that that do a direct listing opening. And so in the direct listing process, you're actually removing steps” — CNBC Television Wed, 02 Oct 2019 17:35:22 +0000 Gurley argues direct listings remove steps since IPOs use equivalent opening process the next day anyway. https://minutesof.com/q/60f954ef-334b-4a4d-8f62-31d8c40f2cf5/ https://minutesof.com/q/60f954ef-334b-4a4d-8f62-31d8c40f2cf5/ “And so in the direct listing process, you're actually removing steps because once you do an IPO, you actually do with the exact equivalent of direct listing opening the next morning.” — CNBC Television Wed, 02 Oct 2019 17:35:22 +0000 Gurley distinguishes direct listings from Dutch auctions by noting systems already exist in markets for daily https://minutesof.com/q/96c5a6ff-c053-45fb-9dd8-bd630e98522c/ https://minutesof.com/q/96c5a6ff-c053-45fb-9dd8-bd630e98522c/ “But what's really remarkable and very different from the Dutch auction, these systems are already inside of our financial markets.” — CNBC Television Wed, 02 Oct 2019 17:35:22 +0000 Gurley quantifies Silicon Valley IPO underpricing at $171 billion over thirty-nine years based on day-one pric https://minutesof.com/q/77a223ec-202e-4ba8-8868-1f88272385ef/ https://minutesof.com/q/77a223ec-202e-4ba8-8868-1f88272385ef/ “So the first slide is about underpricing, and this is solely looking at the difference between the price that the stocks handed out to the night before and the close the next day.” — CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 Gurley calculates Silicon Valley companies lost $171 billion over 39 years from IPO underpricing between offer https://minutesof.com/q/04927627-3f78-4c68-a2de-2f00e578d68c/ https://minutesof.com/q/04927627-3f78-4c68-a2de-2f00e578d68c/ “And so over thirty nine years, that's been a 171,000,000,000 for Silicon Valley companies, and it's been increasing lately.” — CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 Gurley states Silicon Valley lost $171 billion to IPO underpricing over 39 years, $6 billion year-to-date. https://minutesof.com/q/091f1a20-9e9a-4beb-a2e6-0ea7a9e96579/ https://minutesof.com/q/091f1a20-9e9a-4beb-a2e6-0ea7a9e96579/ “over thirty nine years, that's been a 171,000,000,000 for Silicon Valley companies, and it's been increasing lately. Just year to date, we're at 6,000,000,000 in underpricing.” — CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 Gurley presents data showing top-tier investment banks deliver the worst IPO execution over a decade and 100+ https://minutesof.com/q/bd1f6c4e-b79f-4d25-9694-f171065f5211/ https://minutesof.com/q/bd1f6c4e-b79f-4d25-9694-f171065f5211/ “So this is ten years of data, a decade of data over a 100 IPOs, per underwriter. And what you see is astonishing.” — CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 Gurley analyzed a decade of IPO data showing the top two banks deliver the worst execution. https://minutesof.com/q/5bef1245-e36f-4e4e-8057-c4fea5b609d0/ https://minutesof.com/q/5bef1245-e36f-4e4e-8057-c4fea5b609d0/ “this is ten years of data, a decade of data over a 100 IPOs, per underwriter. And what you see is astonishing.” — CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 Gurley argues top investment banks deliver worst IPO execution, unlike any other market where quality correlat https://minutesof.com/q/73b7d583-c76b-432e-9fde-e6f6b235bed9/ https://minutesof.com/q/73b7d583-c76b-432e-9fde-e6f6b235bed9/ “So it turns out that if you go with the best investment bank, you get the worst execution. And that is that's remarkably odd.” — CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 Gurley states top investment banks deliver the worst IPO execution for companies. https://minutesof.com/q/aa59fe5e-ce41-40fc-850b-2170eae99674/ https://minutesof.com/q/aa59fe5e-ce41-40fc-850b-2170eae99674/ “it turns out that if you go with the best investment bank, you get the worst execution. And that is that's remarkably odd.” — CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 Gurley reveals IPO underwriters target 20x overallocation, meaning they intentionally ignore 95 percent of sto https://minutesof.com/q/3a0cc956-0466-4756-a71e-e78288bfb681/ https://minutesof.com/q/3a0cc956-0466-4756-a71e-e78288bfb681/ “So 20 x over supply is a euphemism for we're about to ignore 95% of the demand for your stock.” — CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 Gurley reveals standard IPO practice targets 20x overallocation, meaning banks intentionally ignore 95% of sto https://minutesof.com/q/e7e1d7d0-60ea-4102-88c4-e6985c4140af/ https://minutesof.com/q/e7e1d7d0-60ea-4102-88c4-e6985c4140af/ “So 20 x over supply is a euphemism for we're about to ignore 95% of the demand for your stock. Intentionally ignore 95% of the demand for your stock.” — CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 Gurley argues banks face a multiple agency problem, serving buy-side clients rather than the companies going p https://minutesof.com/q/8fa964f2-67a6-4e14-85d1-05c36e5f5859/ https://minutesof.com/q/8fa964f2-67a6-4e14-85d1-05c36e5f5859/ “There's an area of study in economics called, the agency problem, and and there's a the variant of it called the multiple agency problem.” — CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 Gurley explains top banks deliver worst execution because they serve buy-side clients, not the company going p https://minutesof.com/q/401a6dbf-33c5-46b6-99f2-675af164c835/ https://minutesof.com/q/401a6dbf-33c5-46b6-99f2-675af164c835/ “So you've got an agent who's looking after multiple parties, the company, but guess what? Also the buy side.” — CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 Gurley argues investment banks serve buy-side clients, not startups, explaining worse execution at top banks. https://minutesof.com/q/2c2bc9c6-9e72-4d1a-8bab-64337f0a7ccc/ https://minutesof.com/q/2c2bc9c6-9e72-4d1a-8bab-64337f0a7ccc/ “So you just have to realize the customer is not the startup. The customer is the buy side.” — CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 Gurley explains direct listings guarantee order fills for retail investors while traditional IPOs do not provi https://minutesof.com/q/103202f5-1230-4645-8906-44c2932f469c/ https://minutesof.com/q/103202f5-1230-4645-8906-44c2932f469c/ “If you are in a direct listing, any direct listing, and you are at a Schwab account, a Robinhood account, I don't care what, and you put in an order that's a penny higher than the closing price, you get filled. That is not true in a traditional IPO.” — CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 Gurley contrasts direct listings where any retail investor gets filled versus traditional IPOs where retail ge https://minutesof.com/q/1eea5bb8-6836-422d-838d-1c9948020934/ https://minutesof.com/q/1eea5bb8-6836-422d-838d-1c9948020934/ “That is not true in a traditional IPO. In fact, retail's often held the 5%,” — CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 Gurley argues network effects decay as platforms scale, citing LinkedIn as an example of diminishing marginal https://minutesof.com/q/0a37b963-304d-4359-a925-0b2554335b04/ https://minutesof.com/q/0a37b963-304d-4359-a925-0b2554335b04/ “Like what's the value of an incremental member joining LinkedIn? It's probably less than what the value of the 10,000 person that joined LinkedIn.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley shares his unpublished formula for evaluating network effects using value versus market penetration. https://minutesof.com/q/a56186b6-d462-43bd-b39f-ac47e9b1e825/ https://minutesof.com/q/a56186b6-d462-43bd-b39f-ac47e9b1e825/ “If it's a two sided network, you could build one for the value to the supplier, one for the value to the consumer. On the x axis is your penetration into the market.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley says marketplace success requires doing unscalable things early, which frustrates most business school- https://minutesof.com/q/07becb42-0cc5-4f1f-8a17-9e9b93b04269/ https://minutesof.com/q/07becb42-0cc5-4f1f-8a17-9e9b93b04269/ “And if you took 90% of the entrepreneurs that have been to business school and understand scaling, it drives them nuts.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley coined the term liquidity quality and prioritizes it over geographic breadth when evaluating marketplac https://minutesof.com/q/e7b7f852-b373-4c1e-9b6c-a4da6fb14935/ https://minutesof.com/q/e7b7f852-b373-4c1e-9b6c-a4da6fb14935/ “And I've come up with this phrase I use internally that I made up. So I one day I'll have to write a definition of it, but I call it liquidity quality.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley introduces his concept of liquidity quality as more important than geographic breadth for marketplaces. https://minutesof.com/q/49377f0b-d375-4389-9007-0ff0cdb18b25/ https://minutesof.com/q/49377f0b-d375-4389-9007-0ff0cdb18b25/ “So I one day I'll have to write a definition of it, but I call it liquidity quality. And I tell entrepreneurs I care way more about that than I do how broad you are.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley advises waiting until 10 million users before monetizing advertising-based products to preserve growth. https://minutesof.com/q/d0c9e906-226e-4de3-b184-02d36d06af59/ https://minutesof.com/q/d0c9e906-226e-4de3-b184-02d36d06af59/ “If you're in an advertising oriented world, you should not try and monetize until you're north of 10,000,000 users.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley explains Mechanical Turk failed to show network effects because value didn't increase with supply penet https://minutesof.com/q/f3c1ba3f-c333-420c-87fa-540b058ae842/ https://minutesof.com/q/f3c1ba3f-c333-420c-87fa-540b058ae842/ “Rather than say don't work, let's say didn't show signs of a network effect was Mechanical Turk that Amazon built, which was a labor marketplace for perfunctory work that could be pushed over the internet.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley explains labor marketplaces fail because 5% supply provides same customer value as 95%, preventing netw https://minutesof.com/q/38b115fe-c11a-473c-a864-6d6791272a27/ https://minutesof.com/q/38b115fe-c11a-473c-a864-6d6791272a27/ “It turns out that if you get just 5% of the supply, the value you provide in customer is no different than if you get 95% of the supply.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Yeah, the flow of cash and the competition and how that money is being used. https://minutesof.com/q/63af2351-00a9-43a5-9a0f-9d2578277d46/ https://minutesof.com/q/63af2351-00a9-43a5-9a0f-9d2578277d46/ “Yeah, the flow of cash and the competition and how that money is being used.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley criticizes Silicon Valley's crude valuation approach, where entrepreneurs expect 10x revenue regardless https://minutesof.com/q/1bf09541-d7e4-4d2c-8bb6-66e0072f0170/ https://minutesof.com/q/1bf09541-d7e4-4d2c-8bb6-66e0072f0170/ “I've always felt Silicon Valley has a very crude understanding of valuation. Most entrepreneurs think they all deserve 10 times revenue and also with zero regard for what the revenue is.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley criticizes VCs who think cheap capital enables them to pursue low-return businesses in new industries. https://minutesof.com/q/91a7bb16-6d51-4980-8548-69b7ced6e390/ https://minutesof.com/q/91a7bb16-6d51-4980-8548-69b7ced6e390/ “But I overheard a VC on a panel say that now that capital's become so cheap, we as venture capitalists get to go after all these new industries.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley argues that VCs using cheap capital to enter new industries are actually funding low-return businesses. https://minutesof.com/q/348a68f1-9d14-4cb1-a949-1312117e8e38/ https://minutesof.com/q/348a68f1-9d14-4cb1-a949-1312117e8e38/ “I overheard a VC on a panel say that now that capital's become so cheap, we as venture capitalists get to go after all these new industries.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley mocked a VC who said cheap capital enables going after new industries, calling it flawed logic. https://minutesof.com/q/a299e771-4e48-439c-818d-165c43fe935b/ https://minutesof.com/q/a299e771-4e48-439c-818d-165c43fe935b/ “I overheard a VC on a panel say that now that capital's become so cheap, we as venture capitalists get to go after all these new industries. And it really made me chuckle.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley argues that funding businesses because capital is cheap is equivalent to funding low-return businesses. https://minutesof.com/q/fdfccf6b-0c20-47c3-9a39-376d35f04df9/ https://minutesof.com/q/fdfccf6b-0c20-47c3-9a39-376d35f04df9/ “The exact flip way of saying that is, I'm excited about funding low return businesses and I'm gonna go do it.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley argues private companies now have more capital than incumbents for the first time in history. https://minutesof.com/q/9a59c3ce-68cd-4fcf-8fc2-7dba9b9a68c9/ https://minutesof.com/q/9a59c3ce-68cd-4fcf-8fc2-7dba9b9a68c9/ “And for the first time in history, I believe private companies are the ones with more money and are attacking the long held incumbents, which is a radical thing to think about.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley criticizes banks for maintaining slow ACH settlement times for thirty years to protect themselves. https://minutesof.com/q/87019b5c-0c00-48a3-aa4c-2115d91aa67f/ https://minutesof.com/q/87019b5c-0c00-48a3-aa4c-2115d91aa67f/ “I these banks made a huge mistake, which is they've sat on their hands with ACH for thirty years, and they did it for all the wrong reasons.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley argues banks deliberately kept ACH slow for thirty years to protect themselves while other countries ma https://minutesof.com/q/66426ce5-8d56-41e5-8cf2-587d18f73f4d/ https://minutesof.com/q/66426ce5-8d56-41e5-8cf2-587d18f73f4d/ “They did it to protect themselves, like, three days to settle a transaction. There are other countries that just mandated UK faster payments.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley calculated Zoom and CrowdStrike each left $600 million on the table by underpricing their IPOs. https://minutesof.com/q/03a94a75-1bf4-4ae6-9236-952ca881331e/ https://minutesof.com/q/03a94a75-1bf4-4ae6-9236-952ca881331e/ “yet celebrate companies like Zoom and CrowdStrike and where the stock's up or Chewy recently where the stock's up 80% on the first day.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley calculates that Zoom and CrowdStrike each left $600 million on the table by underpricing their IPOs. https://minutesof.com/q/00ab628f-4456-4f48-8c66-06f8cde6d501/ https://minutesof.com/q/00ab628f-4456-4f48-8c66-06f8cde6d501/ “And this is something that I think it's odd to me that more people don't understand how ridiculous this is because had and I ran the math in the Zoom and CrowdStrike example, had those companies priced the IPO at the price of first trade, they would have 600,000,000 more dollars each in the bank” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley calculates Zoom and CrowdStrike each left $600 million on the table by underpricing their IPOs. https://minutesof.com/q/896b500c-6250-4fa2-8177-10c3898c40b7/ https://minutesof.com/q/896b500c-6250-4fa2-8177-10c3898c40b7/ “had those companies priced the IPO at the price of first trade, they would have 600,000,000 more dollars each in the bank with no incremental dilution.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley calculates Zoom and CrowdStrike each left $600 million on the table by underpricing their IPOs. https://minutesof.com/q/48459ad1-ad94-46dc-8945-4e4393e40933/ https://minutesof.com/q/48459ad1-ad94-46dc-8945-4e4393e40933/ “And I can make the argument that's malfeasance, but everyone's writing this stories about how wonderful it was.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 Gurley argues hyper competition makes VCs fear missing deals more than demanding discipline from founders. https://minutesof.com/q/c8bf150f-579c-4812-a91b-95b2c9379471/ https://minutesof.com/q/c8bf150f-579c-4812-a91b-95b2c9379471/ “Hyper competition has made it such that the majority of VCs biggest fear is missing out on the next investment.” — Bloomberg Tech Thu, 15 Feb 2018 00:05:18 +0000 Gurley says competitive dynamics have eliminated stewardship for discipline and results in venture capital. https://minutesof.com/q/e2097851-026e-46fc-ba27-8b834333ef30/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2097851-026e-46fc-ba27-8b834333ef30/ “And I think it's led to a situation where there's not a lot of of stewardship for discipline and and results and that kind of thing.” — Bloomberg Tech Thu, 15 Feb 2018 00:05:18 +0000 Gurley cites Druckenmiller's analogy that low interest rates drive unlimited speculation with other people's m https://minutesof.com/q/fdb82af1-e220-438c-a0c5-c0902fb68d62/ https://minutesof.com/q/fdb82af1-e220-438c-a0c5-c0902fb68d62/ “Drucker Miller just, you know, who's someone that's made a name in macro investing says, if you give, you know, Texas oilman the ability to drill holes with someone else's money, they'll drill as many as you possibly can.” — Bloomberg Tech Thu, 15 Feb 2018 00:05:18 +0000 Gurley argues being public helps companies run better through enforced discipline and smart questioning. https://minutesof.com/q/9909d2b8-eb5e-4064-bec2-5089341f6f58/ https://minutesof.com/q/9909d2b8-eb5e-4064-bec2-5089341f6f58/ “one of the things that I believe strongly that I think is less well understood is that being public actually helps the companies run better. It's an enforced discipline.” — Bloomberg Tech Thu, 15 Feb 2018 00:05:18 +0000 Gurley believes being public helps companies run better through enforced discipline from smart investors. https://minutesof.com/q/634d848a-d43f-49fc-a216-1451ff6a620e/ https://minutesof.com/q/634d848a-d43f-49fc-a216-1451ff6a620e/ “I believe strongly that I think is less well understood is that being public actually helps the companies run better. It's an enforced discipline.” — Bloomberg Tech Thu, 15 Feb 2018 00:05:18 +0000 Gurley expresses high confidence in Dara's track record addressing Uber's problems. https://minutesof.com/q/3abd7a1e-95c3-4305-9ee5-4a8d7e5e9edf/ https://minutesof.com/q/3abd7a1e-95c3-4305-9ee5-4a8d7e5e9edf/ “the DAR is starting to build up a track record of having put out these fires and and attack these problems.” — Bloomberg Tech Thu, 15 Feb 2018 00:05:18 +0000 Gurley says bug bounties are the only offensive security solution versus defensive dam-building approaches. https://minutesof.com/q/94837cf2-5fc7-47d5-89f1-c919cc3e31bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/94837cf2-5fc7-47d5-89f1-c919cc3e31bc/ “It is the only offensive solution. Most of the security solutions are defensive where you're just building a bigger and bigger dam and trying to hold people out.” — Bloomberg Tech Thu, 15 Feb 2018 00:05:18 +0000 Gurley sits on four boards where women are founders: Nextdoor, Marco Polo, Katrina, and Solve Health. https://minutesof.com/q/3e8002de-6882-4529-8781-92919d8cdcbb/ https://minutesof.com/q/3e8002de-6882-4529-8781-92919d8cdcbb/ “I sit on four boards where the women are founders. Nextdoor Marco Polo, Katrina, and Heather with with Solve Health, you know.” — Bloomberg Tech Thu, 15 Feb 2018 00:05:18 +0000 Gurley describes Stitch Fix using machine learning and collaborative filtering to deliver items customers have https://minutesof.com/q/92c4b837-2d20-40ea-b1ac-886831d8c170/ https://minutesof.com/q/92c4b837-2d20-40ea-b1ac-886831d8c170/ “We try and learn as much as we can about the individual, and then we use machine learning and collaborative filtering, a whole bunch of algorithms that helps of our stylists, and we deliver something to you that you haven't even seen yet.” — Bloomberg Television Fri, 17 Nov 2017 19:47:21 +0000 Gurley describes Stitch Fix's approach as ultimate recommendation engine that doesn't show customers the choic https://minutesof.com/q/598ea86e-f9de-4415-81e7-39e72f773907/ https://minutesof.com/q/598ea86e-f9de-4415-81e7-39e72f773907/ “Our head of algorithm says it's the ultimate recommendation engine because we don't even let you look at the choices. And that level of curation is something that's highly unique,” — Bloomberg Television Fri, 17 Nov 2017 19:47:21 +0000 Gurley says Stitch Fix reached billion-dollar run rate profitably, generating $60M free cash flow on just $40M https://minutesof.com/q/f0586c87-635a-4d3c-941c-7c0c172b5353/ https://minutesof.com/q/f0586c87-635a-4d3c-941c-7c0c172b5353/ “So we're at a billion dollar run rate. We've been profitable for many quarters. In fact, when the company came public, it is over a $100,000,000 of cash on the balance sheet.” — Bloomberg Television Fri, 17 Nov 2017 19:47:21 +0000 The company had only raised $40,000,000. Hence, we had created $60,000,000 in free cash flow, something that's https://minutesof.com/q/6f98baf1-d4b7-4035-b081-e35ab6b430e5/ https://minutesof.com/q/6f98baf1-d4b7-4035-b081-e35ab6b430e5/ “The company had only raised $40,000,000. Hence, we had created $60,000,000 in free cash flow, something that's extremely rare in Silicon Valley these days.” — Bloomberg Television Fri, 17 Nov 2017 19:47:21 +0000 Gurley claims Stitch Fix knows 10x more about customers and merchandise than competitors like Nordstrom's and https://minutesof.com/q/bb2f76dd-5ef0-47c1-bee6-293a75393251/ https://minutesof.com/q/bb2f76dd-5ef0-47c1-bee6-293a75393251/ “So you can put us up against anyone, Nordstrom's, Macy's, any of these players, and I am certain that we know 10 x more about our customers and even 10 x more about the merchandise.” — Bloomberg Television Fri, 17 Nov 2017 19:47:21 +0000 Gurley reveals five investors including Fidelity felt all Uber constituents were at risk before taking action. https://minutesof.com/q/2541cfab-6012-4ef9-b8ec-70a71823e2e9/ https://minutesof.com/q/2541cfab-6012-4ef9-b8ec-70a71823e2e9/ “So people typically say benchmark, but there was five investors, including Fidelity, who felt like all of the constituents at Uber were at risk, if action didn't happen sooner.” — Bloomberg Television Fri, 17 Nov 2017 19:47:21 +0000 Gurley argues excessive capital in Silicon Valley allows entrepreneurs to run without discipline or accountabi https://minutesof.com/q/ad01ba67-d5e7-43e7-85b2-5a10c7faf6e6/ https://minutesof.com/q/ad01ba67-d5e7-43e7-85b2-5a10c7faf6e6/ “The the I guess the thing I would say is that, you know, the excessive amount of capital that's been available to Silicon Valley has allowed a lot of entrepreneurs to run without much discipline because if you if if you're not running out of money, you're not constantly being regraded and asked to come back to the table.” — Bloomberg Television Fri, 17 Nov 2017 19:47:21 +0000 Gurley argues excessive capital availability lets entrepreneurs run without discipline since they never get re https://minutesof.com/q/7c51d2c2-fea0-4125-a88d-3c2514445a50/ https://minutesof.com/q/7c51d2c2-fea0-4125-a88d-3c2514445a50/ “I guess the thing I would say is that, you know, the excessive amount of capital that's been available to Silicon Valley has allowed a lot of entrepreneurs to run without much discipline because if you if if you're not running out of money, you're not constantly being regraded” — Bloomberg Television Fri, 17 Nov 2017 19:47:21 +0000 Gurley notes Stitch Fix has over 80% female employees, over 60% female management and board. https://minutesof.com/q/d331401e-c32c-4bed-bcff-28d0851f6a35/ https://minutesof.com/q/d331401e-c32c-4bed-bcff-28d0851f6a35/ “Stitch Fix, people may not know this. Over 80% of the employees are female. Over 60% of the management team's female. Over 60% of the board is female.” — Bloomberg Television Fri, 17 Nov 2017 19:47:21 +0000 Gurley notes Stitch Fix is over 80% female employees with 60% female management and board composition. https://minutesof.com/q/be4e2364-418c-445e-8fef-fda817ce410b/ https://minutesof.com/q/be4e2364-418c-445e-8fef-fda817ce410b/ “Over 80% of the employees are female. Over 60% of the management team's female. Over 60% of the board is female.” — Bloomberg Television Fri, 17 Nov 2017 19:47:21 +0000 Over 60% of the management team's female. Over 60% of the board is female. And I found out this morning she ma https://minutesof.com/q/e21a2aae-47fb-4251-b2d1-1ef63fd6a896/ https://minutesof.com/q/e21a2aae-47fb-4251-b2d1-1ef63fd6a896/ “Over 60% of the management team's female. Over 60% of the board is female. And I found out this morning she may be the youngest female founder to actually take their company public ever.” — Bloomberg Television Fri, 17 Nov 2017 19:47:21 +0000 Gurley says Katrina Lake may be the youngest female founder ever to take a company public. https://minutesof.com/q/0fffa57e-c860-43f2-986d-a9314f9a9cb2/ https://minutesof.com/q/0fffa57e-c860-43f2-986d-a9314f9a9cb2/ “I found out this morning she may be the youngest female founder to actually take their company public ever.” — Bloomberg Television Fri, 17 Nov 2017 19:47:21 +0000 Gurley argues successful AI requires huge datasets on both sides for matching. https://minutesof.com/q/cfdb898a-cf36-4f85-92f2-d3c406a2f12b/ https://minutesof.com/q/cfdb898a-cf36-4f85-92f2-d3c406a2f12b/ “In order to be successful and powerful in these types of areas, you need huge datasets, and you need them on both sides so that you can do the matching.” — CNBC Fri, 17 Nov 2017 18:49:28 +0000 Gurley explains Stitch Fix stayed under unicorn status by avoiding fundraising while maintaining profitability https://minutesof.com/q/dcc1a6e3-0994-48ef-bde7-6682e16d557d/ https://minutesof.com/q/dcc1a6e3-0994-48ef-bde7-6682e16d557d/ “One of the unique things about Stitch Fix relative to all of the unicorns out in Silicon Valley is that they've run very disciplined and profitable approach. They've been profitable for several years.” — CNBC Fri, 17 Nov 2017 18:49:28 +0000 Gurley notes Stitch Fix remained profitable for years and never raised above $1B valuation. https://minutesof.com/q/4ea319ae-64d7-4faf-9329-e533ed80c0ba/ https://minutesof.com/q/4ea319ae-64d7-4faf-9329-e533ed80c0ba/ “They've been profitable for several years. The reason that you never heard of them as a unicorn was because they never raised money above 1,000,000,000 because they didn't really do raise money.” — CNBC Fri, 17 Nov 2017 18:49:28 +0000 Gurley says Stitch Fix was never valued above a billion because they ran profitably and didn't need to raise m https://minutesof.com/q/cf45415c-ad9f-46ca-b0f3-604998510ba9/ https://minutesof.com/q/cf45415c-ad9f-46ca-b0f3-604998510ba9/ “The reason that you never heard of them as a unicorn was because they never raised money above 1,000,000,000 because they didn't really do raise money.” — CNBC Fri, 17 Nov 2017 18:49:28 +0000 Gurley predicts many unicorns will damage equity value by avoiding public markets and profitability. https://minutesof.com/q/896cc543-641d-4a61-81fa-1b3a753b232d/ https://minutesof.com/q/896cc543-641d-4a61-81fa-1b3a753b232d/ “I think you're gonna see a large number of unicorns who were afraid to play on Sunday, afraid to be in the public markets, that didn't get their act together in time, didn't get profitable, didn't understand unit economics, and and hurt the value of the equity as a result.” — CNBC Fri, 17 Nov 2017 18:49:28 +0000 Gurley says Uber's entire stakeholder base was at risk before leadership change. https://minutesof.com/q/b13117c1-db86-48aa-9850-f9df9a8b76d3/ https://minutesof.com/q/b13117c1-db86-48aa-9850-f9df9a8b76d3/ “We reached a point where we felt like, you know, the entire company, you know, and all of its constituencies, drivers, riders, employees, shareholders, were at risk if the company continued to move in the direction it was.” — CNBC Fri, 17 Nov 2017 18:49:28 +0000 Gurley observes maturing unicorns recognizing they must become profitable or go public. https://minutesof.com/q/e5a7c5ef-b498-4104-9e7c-23eb3bf7217c/ https://minutesof.com/q/e5a7c5ef-b498-4104-9e7c-23eb3bf7217c/ “I do think we are also watching, however, as many of the unicorns mature in age, that many of them are having to come to the recognition that they either need to grow up, get profitable, go public, or do something along those lines.” — CNBC Fri, 17 Nov 2017 18:49:28 +0000 Gurley observes aging unicorns recognizing they must become profitable or go public as staying private forever https://minutesof.com/q/6007088b-343f-446a-9f59-48c35a45a985/ https://minutesof.com/q/6007088b-343f-446a-9f59-48c35a45a985/ “And that this this silly notion of we're gonna stay private forever is not playing out in a very positive way.” — CNBC Fri, 17 Nov 2017 18:49:28 +0000 Gurley argues Bitcoin serves countries with overinflating currencies and low trust in government money. https://minutesof.com/q/68a62413-89a1-4e85-8ee5-9b0b913376cf/ https://minutesof.com/q/68a62413-89a1-4e85-8ee5-9b0b913376cf/ “And so if you live in one of those countries where you don't trust the currency of your own government, you know, how do you wanna get paid?” — CNBC Fri, 17 Nov 2017 18:49:28 +0000 Gurley says Benchmark pays white hat hackers through HackerOne in Bitcoin in countries with untrusted currenci https://minutesof.com/q/4da9d5d2-31ce-48b1-9d47-4e46d4cdee6f/ https://minutesof.com/q/4da9d5d2-31ce-48b1-9d47-4e46d4cdee6f/ “We we we work with a company called HackerOne that pays white hat hackers to find vulnerabilities in large websites.” — CNBC Fri, 17 Nov 2017 18:49:28 +0000 Gurley calls healthcare marketplaces extremely dangerous with forces in five directions and misaligned incenti https://minutesof.com/q/9a9943e8-12c5-4f8e-b1ed-627e337b5305/ https://minutesof.com/q/9a9943e8-12c5-4f8e-b1ed-627e337b5305/ “It's extremely dangerous because the the laws of most, marketplaces doesn't exist. You know, there's not a simple gravity. There's forces in five different directions.” — CNBC Fri, 17 Nov 2017 18:49:28 +0000 Gurley explains why targeting sales instead of HR made Salesforce wildly more successful than their HR SaaS co https://minutesof.com/q/3bcf1ebf-e587-4ada-8508-f356465c2082/ https://minutesof.com/q/3bcf1ebf-e587-4ada-8508-f356465c2082/ “the sales executive has a green light on any purchase in a company. The HR executive does not. They had a product where you could put it on a credit card.” — This Week in Startups Fri, 07 Apr 2017 23:27:51 +0000 Gurley explains Innovator's Dilemma: disruptive products succeed by targeting customers who reject incumbent c https://minutesof.com/q/60b1ab7a-113e-44ad-a3f3-3209723b061a/ https://minutesof.com/q/60b1ab7a-113e-44ad-a3f3-3209723b061a/ “Products that are able to be disruptive get over designed. They get over feature rich, they get complex, they get heavy.” — This Week in Startups Fri, 07 Apr 2017 23:27:51 +0000 Gurley argues the most regulated US industries like finance, telecom, and healthcare become the least capitali https://minutesof.com/q/1d20d24a-3406-4520-80a8-3ae6099e3062/ https://minutesof.com/q/1d20d24a-3406-4520-80a8-3ae6099e3062/ “what happens is capitalism and democracy evolve over time, especially in The US federal system. The most regulated industries become the ones that are least capitalistic. And so finance, telecom, healthcare are completely,” — This Week in Startups Fri, 07 Apr 2017 23:27:51 +0000 Gurley says lobbyists from regulated companies literally talk to congressmen about what goes into new laws. https://minutesof.com/q/8f23b934-6056-44b3-9754-11a376fcf41c/ https://minutesof.com/q/8f23b934-6056-44b3-9754-11a376fcf41c/ “If they're striking a new federal law, like the lobbyists from the companies being regulated are on M Street talking to the congressman about what to put into the bill.” — This Week in Startups Fri, 07 Apr 2017 23:27:51 +0000 Gurley compares late-stage private valuations to a Bernie Madoff dynamic with unaudited markups creating feedb https://minutesof.com/q/49b9f2d0-945d-4f92-b10b-b4fdd4b867a6/ https://minutesof.com/q/49b9f2d0-945d-4f92-b10b-b4fdd4b867a6/ “And I think what we see right now is a almost Bernie Madoff like dynamic where capital comes in, it gets marked up without any public scrutiny, unaudited financials.” — VivaTech Wed, 13 Jul 2016 11:33:12 +0000 Gurley says 140-150 companies have valuations that wouldn't sustain in public markets. https://minutesof.com/q/3b4c0cef-76e9-4b41-8ded-aaf68614ba96/ https://minutesof.com/q/3b4c0cef-76e9-4b41-8ded-aaf68614ba96/ “So we have 140 companies, 150 companies that have valuations that I think wouldn't sustain in the public market.” — VivaTech Wed, 13 Jul 2016 11:33:12 +0000 Gurley argues finance hasn't faced upheaval like telecom and extracts fees without fundamental value creation. https://minutesof.com/q/314d61f4-18d4-4123-9aad-e56a48882a76/ https://minutesof.com/q/314d61f4-18d4-4123-9aad-e56a48882a76/ “And there's a lot of fees that are being raked on things that you could say, like FX, that aren't fundamental creation of value.” — VivaTech Wed, 13 Jul 2016 11:33:12 +0000 Gurley warns the gap between capital deployed and liquidity returned has reached record levels without returns https://minutesof.com/q/b996fa00-4361-4706-bdc8-b3caac4b4df4/ https://minutesof.com/q/b996fa00-4361-4706-bdc8-b3caac4b4df4/ “And the gap that's been widening between the money that's been given versus the money that's been returned in liquidity is record levels.” — VivaTech Wed, 13 Jul 2016 11:33:12 +0000 Gurley states capital burn on headcount is breaking all prior records from 1999-2000 bubble. https://minutesof.com/q/332060d1-81ce-42c9-ae1d-0903a2aea65d/ https://minutesof.com/q/332060d1-81ce-42c9-ae1d-0903a2aea65d/ “And so the single biggest indicator for us is that the capital being burned in the market so this is usually on headcount, mostly people, not hard assets is breaking all the prior records of 'ninety nine, two thousand.” — VivaTech Wed, 13 Jul 2016 11:33:12 +0000 Gurley predicts three of next ten years' $300-500B companies will be in Silicon Valley, rest in China. https://minutesof.com/q/13d6311d-9294-4d95-b6f0-f6474e46141a/ https://minutesof.com/q/13d6311d-9294-4d95-b6f0-f6474e46141a/ “It's also highly likely that three of them are going be in the Silicon Valley. And then the rest are in China.” — VivaTech Wed, 13 Jul 2016 11:33:12 +0000 Gurley questions whether car-as-a-service models can replace ownership's sense of freedom and control for cons https://minutesof.com/q/4c013f68-229b-4716-9eed-5780a4810d59/ https://minutesof.com/q/4c013f68-229b-4716-9eed-5780a4810d59/ “You know, it could be a a car that you don't actually own, but you fractionally own, a car as a service via Uber, via many of these different services that are coming out.” — ChurchillClub Sat, 23 May 2015 01:16:56 +0000 Gurley reports Hyperloop Technologies has 32 full-time employees building the system, which is simpler than ex https://minutesof.com/q/169af411-5225-4b08-aa84-39b31ad7d3b4/ https://minutesof.com/q/169af411-5225-4b08-aa84-39b31ad7d3b4/ “Technologies like Hyperloop are much simpler than people actually imagine. So I invite all of you, if you want, to come to LA and get a tour.” — ChurchillClub Sat, 23 May 2015 01:16:56 +0000 Gurley predicts Hyperloop will achieve over 700 mph on a two-mile track within twenty-four months. https://minutesof.com/q/ccc19b0f-9f77-479c-881e-8c21ee1e0dfe/ https://minutesof.com/q/ccc19b0f-9f77-479c-881e-8c21ee1e0dfe/ “So the prediction is we'll have Hyperloop working in about twenty four months on a two mile track and hit over 700 miles per hour, and we can go faster than that.” — ChurchillClub Sat, 23 May 2015 01:16:56 +0000 Gurley states the 50 largest cargo ships pollute more than all cars combined, referencing transportation alter https://minutesof.com/q/c8ab4fa8-c36b-4626-92b3-c13a9634daf7/ https://minutesof.com/q/c8ab4fa8-c36b-4626-92b3-c13a9634daf7/ “By the way, the 50 largest cargo ships in the world pollute the world and pollute the world more than all the cars that Bill Gurley hates, added up together. So just those 50 ships.” — ChurchillClub Sat, 23 May 2015 01:16:56 +0000 Gurley says the government paid doctors $44,000 to implement electronic health records in 2009. https://minutesof.com/q/d088e949-e8d4-4f7f-81c9-f2c929a5aba0/ https://minutesof.com/q/d088e949-e8d4-4f7f-81c9-f2c929a5aba0/ “So in 2009, when the government passed the Reinvestment Act to try and get America going or whatever it was called, they put in place a program where a doctor is paid, believe this or not, paid $44,000 to implement EHR, electronic health records.” — SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 Gurley says the government paid doctors $44,000 to implement electronic health records under the 2009 Reinvest https://minutesof.com/q/51dcfdff-ca44-46db-8dd6-2e6bc57b6b5e/ https://minutesof.com/q/51dcfdff-ca44-46db-8dd6-2e6bc57b6b5e/ “So, it'd basically be like telling a construction company if you put in NetSuite, you get paid $50.” — SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 Gurley reports the government has paid $29 billion total for doctors to implement electronic health record sof https://minutesof.com/q/b982457f-82a9-4f00-b1f2-269c1d35419e/ https://minutesof.com/q/b982457f-82a9-4f00-b1f2-269c1d35419e/ “So, the payments for these incentive programs, because I just looked it up to get the recent update, dollars 29,000,000,000. So, our government has paid $29,000,000,000 for doctors to implement software” — SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 Gurley reports the government has paid $29 billion for doctors to implement EHR software. https://minutesof.com/q/87fdb737-6828-4bb0-9a05-84083de83b80/ https://minutesof.com/q/87fdb737-6828-4bb0-9a05-84083de83b80/ “So, the payments for these incentive programs, because I just looked it up to get the recent update, dollars 29,000,000,000.” — SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 Gurley reports the government has paid $29 billion total for doctors to implement electronic health record sof https://minutesof.com/q/33d4e8d2-3583-4eb8-93b5-8eb1154b163e/ https://minutesof.com/q/33d4e8d2-3583-4eb8-93b5-8eb1154b163e/ “So, our government has paid $29,000,000,000 for doctors to implement software that they weren't naturally implementing on their own.” — SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 Gurley contrasts U.S. healthcare spending at 17% of GDP with Singapore's 1.7%, a 10x difference. https://minutesof.com/q/d6af8d12-4327-4afd-ad5a-b8f5c49d08f9/ https://minutesof.com/q/d6af8d12-4327-4afd-ad5a-b8f5c49d08f9/ “The U. S. Spends 17% of GDP on healthcare and Singapore spends 1.7. So, it's a 10x delta and they have relatively reputable healthcare system.” — SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 Gurley notes US healthcare costs 17% of GDP versus Singapore's 1.7%, a 10x difference explained by making ever https://minutesof.com/q/ddbaad8f-13ad-4961-9f05-c065819b0335/ https://minutesof.com/q/ddbaad8f-13ad-4961-9f05-c065819b0335/ “Spends 17% of GDP on healthcare and Singapore spends 1.7. So, it's a 10x delta and they have relatively reputable healthcare system. And the key thing they do is they make everyone a payer.” — SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 Gurley states Uber has 300,000 drivers globally and is adding 50,000 per month, the fastest job creation he kn https://minutesof.com/q/1c69ece4-c7bd-48ec-bbf1-91cf622cf4d9/ https://minutesof.com/q/1c69ece4-c7bd-48ec-bbf1-91cf622cf4d9/ “There's about 300,000 Uber drivers right now and they're adding it right now at a pace of 50,000 a month. That's on a global basis.” — SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 Gurley argues that for eighty years we grossly underestimated transportation demand by limiting it with taxi m https://minutesof.com/q/e71e6958-d091-42e8-8dfa-4e4e94589810/ https://minutesof.com/q/e71e6958-d091-42e8-8dfa-4e4e94589810/ “The most fascinating thing for me is that for basically eighty years, we grossly underestimated the demand for transportation services. And we limited it at a city government level with the taxi medallion.” — SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 Gurley cites Morgan Stanley finding that cars are 97% idle despite representing 15% of global capital expendit https://minutesof.com/q/027bc066-8eb8-4fc2-8e03-5a6ed7b98924/ https://minutesof.com/q/027bc066-8eb8-4fc2-8e03-5a6ed7b98924/ “There's an interesting thing that Morgan Stanley put out where they calculate that 97% of cars are idle.” — SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 Gurley argues current risk bubble differs from 1999 because investors now put hundreds of millions into four-y https://minutesof.com/q/37904117-1b3e-46f3-8f0e-d375ba48b973/ https://minutesof.com/q/37904117-1b3e-46f3-8f0e-d375ba48b973/ “But you didn't have a situation where people were putting $102,103 $104,109 $1,001,000,000,000 dollars into a private company who might only be four years old. These companies just haven't had the time to mature.” — SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 Gurley warns that unlimited capital leads to poor execution and burn rates are now higher than ever before. https://minutesof.com/q/cdc4ee2a-3810-4557-bb41-e5fb332e0653/ https://minutesof.com/q/cdc4ee2a-3810-4557-bb41-e5fb332e0653/ “Being able to just do everything leads to poor business execution. And so now we have numbers of companies, I think, making poor decisions. Burn rates are higher than they've ever been.” — SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 Gurley observes there is a complete absence of fear in Silicon Valley right now, which typically leads to prob https://minutesof.com/q/7aac2437-7284-42e6-86f2-d064e4b5dfe9/ https://minutesof.com/q/7aac2437-7284-42e6-86f2-d064e4b5dfe9/ “And while I'm I'm not here to accuse people of being greedy, there is no fear in Silicon Valley right now, a complete absence of fear.” — SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 Gurley notes Seattle's four pillar companies Microsoft, Amazon, Costco, and Starbucks were all venture backed. https://minutesof.com/q/7471feb2-aa80-4113-a5d5-476f54fe2968/ https://minutesof.com/q/7471feb2-aa80-4113-a5d5-476f54fe2968/ “the four pillars of Seattle, Microsoft, Amazon, Costco, and Starbucks, they were all venture backed.” — TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 Gurley argues the venture business has an anti-IPO attitude that prevents companies from hitting home runs. https://minutesof.com/q/6a84016b-e42e-437d-aab1-e6028dcec5bf/ https://minutesof.com/q/6a84016b-e42e-437d-aab1-e6028dcec5bf/ “in the venture business, we have this problem, this kind of anti IPO attitude that I think prohibits companies from hitting the long ball.” — TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 Gurley says Wall Street's anti-loyal mentality focused on cash over equity hurts startup culture in New York. https://minutesof.com/q/ca5bd905-054f-47cf-a833-dde7bbc484d4/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca5bd905-054f-47cf-a833-dde7bbc484d4/ “I formerly worked on Wall Street years ago and I think the Wall Street mentality is still prevalent in different places. And I consider that a very anti loyal mentality.” — TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 Gurley says Wall Street's anti-loyalty mentality focused on cash over equity hurts New York startups. https://minutesof.com/q/6d5a9fd4-a1ab-4fcb-a132-79e46ad34e74/ https://minutesof.com/q/6d5a9fd4-a1ab-4fcb-a132-79e46ad34e74/ “And I consider that a very anti loyal mentality. People just trade firms constantly and they're really into cash comp and they don't think about equity.” — TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 Gurley says late-stage private market is the frothiest since the late '90s despite down IPOs. https://minutesof.com/q/dc7ea89e-1745-4529-8faa-351e52b54975/ https://minutesof.com/q/dc7ea89e-1745-4529-8faa-351e52b54975/ “I would say on a couple of fronts, the late stage private market continues to be the most frothy thing I've seen since the late '90s.” — TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 Gurley says the late stage private market is the frothiest he has seen since the late 1990s. https://minutesof.com/q/e68fdfc9-4bf3-47d2-8f48-2f310315d004/ https://minutesof.com/q/e68fdfc9-4bf3-47d2-8f48-2f310315d004/ “the late stage private market continues to be the most frothy thing I've seen since the late '90s.” — TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 Gurley calls the lifetime value model a house of cards and an excuse. https://minutesof.com/q/d6c86e32-f353-489e-9ee0-0f991a2c9734/ https://minutesof.com/q/d6c86e32-f353-489e-9ee0-0f991a2c9734/ “I think this whole LTV model is a real house of cards. It's just an excuse to say.” — TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 Gurley calls the LTV model a house of cards where numbers can be manipulated. https://minutesof.com/q/c774fb6a-9cf3-42f1-a242-8317d78829f1/ https://minutesof.com/q/c774fb6a-9cf3-42f1-a242-8317d78829f1/ “Lifetime value model, where people say, as long as we're paying below our lifetime value, cost of capital. But the numbers can be run-in a whole bunch of different ways.” — TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 Gurley says making user-generated content communities work requires knowing 10 to 15 specific nuanced things. https://minutesof.com/q/16e85fcf-a331-4263-aea7-3ae8d6480b98/ https://minutesof.com/q/16e85fcf-a331-4263-aea7-3ae8d6480b98/ “the nuances that are necessary to make these UGC communities work, there's a list of 10 or 15 things that you have to know how to do.” — TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 Gurley argues Apple and Google don't know how to build UGC communities because it requires specific expertise. https://minutesof.com/q/f071c0a2-70e5-4597-a726-4bdd0f651f08/ https://minutesof.com/q/f071c0a2-70e5-4597-a726-4bdd0f651f08/ “And it turns out the majority of people don't know how, including really large companies like Apple and Google because it's really hard and it requires a lot of hand holding and hand stitching and building in place a network effect where the atoms start to bounce into one another.” — TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 And it turns out the majority of people don't know how, including really large companies like Apple and Google https://minutesof.com/q/8935308d-6f2c-488f-b180-c89c9db67f49/ https://minutesof.com/q/8935308d-6f2c-488f-b180-c89c9db67f49/ “And it turns out the majority of people don't know how, including really large companies like Apple and Google” — TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 Gurley says capital available to late stage private companies is unbelievable with behavior reminiscent of the https://minutesof.com/q/98d0d61f-6d31-4861-8d21-ad450161b7ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/98d0d61f-6d31-4861-8d21-ad450161b7ae/ “the amount of dollars available to successful late stage private companies is unbelievable. And the behavior that you'll see for the competition in those dollars is very reminiscent of the late 90s.” — TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 Gurley says late-stage private funding behavior is very reminiscent of the late 1990s bubble. https://minutesof.com/q/8c724370-9cc2-4b12-b423-d002c9dfa15a/ https://minutesof.com/q/8c724370-9cc2-4b12-b423-d002c9dfa15a/ “And the behavior that you'll see for the competition in those dollars is very reminiscent of the late 90s.” — TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 Gurley says Yellow Pages took eighty years to peak but fell by half in less than six years. https://minutesof.com/q/4709c336-64d3-4140-be41-f8e913d900a0/ https://minutesof.com/q/4709c336-64d3-4140-be41-f8e913d900a0/ “So in a six it took eighty years for it to reach that pinnacle and in less than six, it's more than fallen in half.” — SVTV Mon, 17 Dec 2012 16:59:38 +0000 Gurley states local advertising peaked at over one hundred billion dollars around 2006. https://minutesof.com/q/4bab6181-ca90-483d-8bd7-4b5b50c61a14/ https://minutesof.com/q/4bab6181-ca90-483d-8bd7-4b5b50c61a14/ “So local advertising measured by a bunch of different groups peaked at about the same time at over 100,000,000,000.” — SVTV Mon, 17 Dec 2012 16:59:38 +0000 Gurley reports Uber expanded San Francisco's black car fleet from 650 to 850 vehicles. https://minutesof.com/q/603b275e-52f6-40a5-8dc2-f552aa9fd85f/ https://minutesof.com/q/603b275e-52f6-40a5-8dc2-f552aa9fd85f/ “When Uber started, there were six fifty licensed black cars in San Francisco. Today, there's eight fifty in San Francisco driving on Uber.” — SVTV Mon, 17 Dec 2012 16:59:38 +0000 Gurley observes people routinely eliminating second cars and using Uber for daily transportation instead. https://minutesof.com/q/b0ee748c-1abe-457b-8947-05129fb39173/ https://minutesof.com/q/b0ee748c-1abe-457b-8947-05129fb39173/ “There are people spending 10 to $15 a year, and I routinely meet people who have gotten rid of a second car and are using Uber in their daily lives.” — SVTV Mon, 17 Dec 2012 16:59:38 +0000 Gurley identifies taxi commissioners and taxi fleets as drivers of all Uber legal issues. https://minutesof.com/q/16c4605a-2c12-4aae-a523-9da6f266ef22/ https://minutesof.com/q/16c4605a-2c12-4aae-a523-9da6f266ef22/ “The predominant driver of most 100% of the legal issues is either a taxi commissioner or a taxi fleet.” — SVTV Mon, 17 Dec 2012 16:59:38 +0000 Gurley cites D.C. council member whose jailed ex-chief of staff took taxi fleet bribes still deciding regulati https://minutesof.com/q/c8bf9c24-8402-47c0-b87f-2e433895cc4d/ https://minutesof.com/q/c8bf9c24-8402-47c0-b87f-2e433895cc4d/ “C, his former chief of staff is in jail because he took a bribe from the taxi fleet, you know, like two years ago, and he's still on the commission that's deciding these things.” — SVTV Mon, 17 Dec 2012 16:59:38 +0000 Gurley warns consolidation of independent practitioners into large medical groups is bad for healthcare innova https://minutesof.com/q/f04e7919-9587-4edb-adfb-0154a4ce2937/ https://minutesof.com/q/f04e7919-9587-4edb-adfb-0154a4ce2937/ “the large medical groups have been building out these huge platforms of MRI centers and labs and x-ray, and they're increasingly inviting general practitioners to live under their umbrella, and as that happens, the number of independent general practitioners is dropping as a percentage of all doctors, and that's really bad for innovation.” — SVTV Mon, 17 Dec 2012 16:59:38 +0000 Gurley cites DP Review, a one-person digital camera review site acquired by Amazon for forty to seventy millio https://minutesof.com/q/e552184b-0985-4b3c-b7fc-66ebf5bba2da/ https://minutesof.com/q/e552184b-0985-4b3c-b7fc-66ebf5bba2da/ “One guy, one founder and Amazon reported, you know, no one knows the exact number but I've heard anywhere from 40 to $70,000,000 for a single guy.” — GigaOm Fri, 14 Dec 2012 18:03:42 +0000 Gurley recounts Austin Ventures told him to work twenty years before entering venture capital. https://minutesof.com/q/936f3d5c-62a6-4a70-ad99-bc04f97647e3/ https://minutesof.com/q/936f3d5c-62a6-4a70-ad99-bc04f97647e3/ “And while I was there, I went and talked to some of the Austin Ventures partners and I said, I want to get into venture, what should I do?” — GigaOm Fri, 14 Dec 2012 18:03:42 +0000 Gurley says boardroom strategy is 5% of venture at best; most time is spent selling. https://minutesof.com/q/b1d4df8c-a030-4af0-b78b-50c67b41baab/ https://minutesof.com/q/b1d4df8c-a030-4af0-b78b-50c67b41baab/ “That's probably 5% of the business at best. Most of the time you're on the phone trying to sell something.” — GigaOm Fri, 14 Dec 2012 18:03:42 +0000 Gurley says top ten venture funds all fell out when their single best performer was removed. https://minutesof.com/q/4deb26f8-e394-4711-b277-35e2bbc8e185/ https://minutesof.com/q/4deb26f8-e394-4711-b277-35e2bbc8e185/ “And then they took the top performer out of those funds and they all fell out of the top 10 or maybe one of them stayed.” — GigaOm Fri, 14 Dec 2012 18:03:42 +0000 Gurley argues ten percent layoffs are too small to meaningfully reduce burn rate. https://minutesof.com/q/45840ac3-86d9-496c-bb59-46805001b3aa/ https://minutesof.com/q/45840ac3-86d9-496c-bb59-46805001b3aa/ “I read about someone doing a 10% layoff and you should never do 10 because it's not consequential enough to really affect your burn rate.” — GigaOm Fri, 14 Dec 2012 18:03:42 +0000 Gurley traces late-stage private market boom to Yuri Milner's contrarian Facebook bet below ten billion valuat https://minutesof.com/q/fc7960a7-e0b3-4db6-85f1-768ff8ba2f19/ https://minutesof.com/q/fc7960a7-e0b3-4db6-85f1-768ff8ba2f19/ “And a very, very smart man, Yuri Milner makes a bet on Facebook at a price that seems fairly high.” — GigaOm Fri, 14 Dec 2012 18:03:42 +0000 Gurley calls late-stage private market of past two years the most reckless investment behavior since the bubbl https://minutesof.com/q/cd98e610-22e8-4593-a199-5b61e58a7a4b/ https://minutesof.com/q/cd98e610-22e8-4593-a199-5b61e58a7a4b/ “I think if you look back, could say over the past two years, the most reckless investment behavior we've seen since the bubble was the late stage private market of the past two years.” — GigaOm Fri, 14 Dec 2012 18:03:42 +0000 Gurley argues smartphones enable apps to replace expensive dedicated embedded devices at dramatically lower co https://minutesof.com/q/54ccbfdd-0496-470e-9db0-9e48af87348d/ https://minutesof.com/q/54ccbfdd-0496-470e-9db0-9e48af87348d/ “I mean we were talking earlier about local, the things you can do now that I can write an app instead of building a dedicated embedded device that would have cost $2, it's night and day.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 18:06:49 +0000 Gurley predicts the next ten years will involve removing enterprise technology and moving systems outside via https://minutesof.com/q/1e19ffb2-72ef-4185-9eb3-dd7621638e65/ https://minutesof.com/q/1e19ffb2-72ef-4185-9eb3-dd7621638e65/ “I say we spent forty years cramming technology into the enterprise. We're going to spend the next ten yanking it out. It's just so wholesale that you're moving systems outside.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 18:06:49 +0000 Gurley contrasts past Microsoft dominance with today's five to seven competing monoliths creating more startup https://minutesof.com/q/177345e7-9b27-441c-8b45-c7d617df7a7e/ https://minutesof.com/q/177345e7-9b27-441c-8b45-c7d617df7a7e/ “When I got into venture, every startup presentation ended with what are you going to do when Microsoft does this? Right.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 18:06:49 +0000 Gurley identifies five to seven major tech companies today, unlike the aligned Wintel coalition of the past. https://minutesof.com/q/6f68a77b-5988-4d2a-baba-a56d8b6821b8/ https://minutesof.com/q/6f68a77b-5988-4d2a-baba-a56d8b6821b8/ “And interestingly, they're not, you know, least with Wintel, you had Microsoft, Intel and Dell and Compaq all fairly aligned to the same initiative.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 18:06:49 +0000 I think that creates, I think it should create a rather healthy M and A market, but I also think it helps crea https://minutesof.com/q/39503d34-75bd-4036-935e-bc7aa258cce7/ https://minutesof.com/q/39503d34-75bd-4036-935e-bc7aa258cce7/ “I think that creates, I think it should create a rather healthy M and A market, but I also think it helps create opportunities because you know, you look at the Yelp and OpenTable integration with Apple, you know, if there were only one monolith and there weren't five, that probably doesn't happen.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 18:06:49 +0000 Gurley describes GrubHub's track-your-grub feature as example of smartphone-enabled marketplace workflow innov https://minutesof.com/q/fbce7284-ad6a-49c6-bef3-66646ce7e74f/ https://minutesof.com/q/fbce7284-ad6a-49c6-bef3-66646ce7e74f/ “You'd never done it before. And then a few weeks ago, we released a product called track your grub.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 18:06:49 +0000 Gurley observes marketplace companies invest equally in supplier workflow systems as in consumer-facing produc https://minutesof.com/q/c030be65-a045-42b2-8550-bd812dfa21ee/ https://minutesof.com/q/c030be65-a045-42b2-8550-bd812dfa21ee/ “Lot of my marketplace companies that I'm working with are spending as much R and D money on systems, workflow systems for the supplier side as they are on the consumer side.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 18:06:49 +0000 Gurley explains Uber was impossible before smartphones due to cost of installing embedded systems in cars. https://minutesof.com/q/e62c07e2-423e-4543-9cbb-49b9043a05f6/ https://minutesof.com/q/e62c07e2-423e-4543-9cbb-49b9043a05f6/ “You're not going to go install 700 embedded systems designs in every car and the wireless and build the contracts. You're not going to do all that.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 18:06:49 +0000 Gurley says the majority of Benchmark partners joined at about 30 years old. https://minutesof.com/q/4d6f1696-0ba8-4e68-b249-7a574fd05a2b/ https://minutesof.com/q/4d6f1696-0ba8-4e68-b249-7a574fd05a2b/ “Kevin Harvey joined the venture business about that time. Peter Fenton also joined at about that age. And so across our partnership, the majority of the partners joined at about 30 years old.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:56:41 +0000 Gurley says the majority of Benchmark partners joined at about 30 years old because venture is a hustle game. https://minutesof.com/q/56b29243-a0dc-48c1-a93a-1298afa884d6/ https://minutesof.com/q/56b29243-a0dc-48c1-a93a-1298afa884d6/ “And so across our partnership, the majority of the partners joined at about 30 years old. And there's a number of reasons why I think youth plays to an advantage. One, it's a hustle game.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:56:41 +0000 Gurley says the majority of Benchmark partners joined at about 30 years old. https://minutesof.com/q/cebee660-d5e7-4a3d-95b2-2607f8c4ab8e/ https://minutesof.com/q/cebee660-d5e7-4a3d-95b2-2607f8c4ab8e/ “And so across our partnership, the majority of the partners joined at about 30 years old.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:56:41 +0000 Gurley recounts Austin Ventures told him to work twenty years before entering venture, opposite of Benchmark's https://minutesof.com/q/248ebe1a-0fbe-43b1-b3d6-4f7ae4f09c3f/ https://minutesof.com/q/248ebe1a-0fbe-43b1-b3d6-4f7ae4f09c3f/ “And while I was there, I went and talked to some of the Austin Ventures partners and I said, I want to get into venture, what should I do?” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:56:41 +0000 Gurley recounts being told to work twenty years before entering venture capital. https://minutesof.com/q/f729ecd1-a099-4782-9fbf-7ecff211d9f1/ https://minutesof.com/q/f729ecd1-a099-4782-9fbf-7ecff211d9f1/ “I went and talked to some of the Austin Ventures partners and I said, I want to get into venture, what should I do?” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:56:41 +0000 Gurley contrasts Austin Ventures' advice to work twenty years before VC with Benchmark's opposite approach. https://minutesof.com/q/7fbc48a1-04a8-4d72-833a-b1ef72bd408b/ https://minutesof.com/q/7fbc48a1-04a8-4d72-833a-b1ef72bd408b/ “And they said, go work for twenty years and then get in. And it's ironic when I think back to that moment in time because we have kind of the exact opposite process.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:56:41 +0000 Gurley says boardroom strategy is only about 5% of the venture business. https://minutesof.com/q/9e7edcbf-be85-4d16-bc86-dfb59cc79050/ https://minutesof.com/q/9e7edcbf-be85-4d16-bc86-dfb59cc79050/ “I often hear people describe venture and they think about sitting around in board rooms thinking up cool strategies. That's probably 5% of the business at best.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:56:41 +0000 Gurley says boardroom strategy is 5% of venture capital at best, most time is spent selling. https://minutesof.com/q/7b798201-8da3-4474-aafe-ae8db87be0a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/7b798201-8da3-4474-aafe-ae8db87be0a3/ “That's probably 5% of the business at best. Most of the time you're on the phone trying to sell something.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:56:41 +0000 Gurley says most venture capital work involves selling and convincing people. https://minutesof.com/q/73ba66d6-b1ef-4ce7-b966-dbf79b8ff320/ https://minutesof.com/q/73ba66d6-b1ef-4ce7-b966-dbf79b8ff320/ “You're trying to convince, you know, to close an investment opportunity, you're trying to close an executive, you're trying to close a biz dev deal,” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:56:41 +0000 Gurley describes LP data showing top venture funds depend on their single best performer. https://minutesof.com/q/00263382-bfa7-497f-82bb-4b66963c5a1b/ https://minutesof.com/q/00263382-bfa7-497f-82bb-4b66963c5a1b/ “There's one of the LPs used to give a presentation where they showed the top 10 funds of all time, not the venture firms, but the specific funds.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:56:41 +0000 Gurley cites LP analysis showing top 10 VC funds all fell out when removing their single best performer. https://minutesof.com/q/5bb74cef-13b5-4330-9ef6-8b858e3eeb32/ https://minutesof.com/q/5bb74cef-13b5-4330-9ef6-8b858e3eeb32/ “And then they took the top performer out of those funds and they all fell out of the top 10 or maybe one of them stayed.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:56:41 +0000 Gurley recalls predictions from five years ago that venture capital would become obsolete due to cheap startup https://minutesof.com/q/7f270237-4a03-4d0f-9c16-4a86b735b4ee/ https://minutesof.com/q/7f270237-4a03-4d0f-9c16-4a86b735b4ee/ “If you go back about five years, a whole bunch of people said, well Venture's dead because there's infinite angel money and you can start a company for cheap and you won't need Venture anymore.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley observes an angel glut beginning a year ago, with some companies raising $5 million in seed money. https://minutesof.com/q/96f49468-90a6-4cc7-bf83-e88dcb685236/ https://minutesof.com/q/96f49468-90a6-4cc7-bf83-e88dcb685236/ “In fact, starting about a year ago I think there was probably what you might call an angel glut of companies who had maybe raised one, two, we've seen companies with $5,000,000 of convertible seed money.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley identifies an angel glut a year ago with companies raising $5 million in seed unable to get Series A. https://minutesof.com/q/827c7a2a-e603-4d35-bfba-8223fc23aab8/ https://minutesof.com/q/827c7a2a-e603-4d35-bfba-8223fc23aab8/ “In fact, starting about a year ago I think there was probably what you might call an angel glut of companies who had maybe raised one, two, we've seen companies with $5,000,000 of convertible seed money. That's a lot of seed money who can't raise series A.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley argues that while starting is cheap, scaling a company requires both capital and expertise. https://minutesof.com/q/c7010802-6090-473f-ba44-eca7f2f1e71a/ https://minutesof.com/q/c7010802-6090-473f-ba44-eca7f2f1e71a/ “And what I think has come out of it is that you may be able to start a company for nothing but if you want to scale a company you will need capital and you'll need expertise to scale it to the next level.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley argues scaling requires capital and expertise even if starting a company is cheap. https://minutesof.com/q/6646e3b5-8838-46c7-bdfd-1edf67786248/ https://minutesof.com/q/6646e3b5-8838-46c7-bdfd-1edf67786248/ “I think has come out of it is that you may be able to start a company for nothing but if you want to scale a company you will need capital and you'll need expertise to scale it to the next level. Not every single player, Benioff who got it up without venture” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley argues companies that can't generate $100 million in revenue shouldn't take venture funding. https://minutesof.com/q/2869d4aa-f653-444e-a8fb-01d67a4cb417/ https://minutesof.com/q/2869d4aa-f653-444e-a8fb-01d67a4cb417/ “I'm the first to argue that if your idea is not something that can generate a $100,000,000 in revenue, you may not want to take venture.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley states most acquisitions are $20-70 million, but venture backing raises expectations to $150 million or https://minutesof.com/q/fb42d77b-29e0-40e4-859c-c7fc2b76b6c4/ https://minutesof.com/q/fb42d77b-29e0-40e4-859c-c7fc2b76b6c4/ “The number one type of acquisition that the big companies like to do is twenty to seventy million dollars and the minute you take venture, they help you raise the B and all of a sudden everyone's expectation is it's got to be 150 or more or we're not saying yes.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley calculates that owning 80% of a $30 million exit yields $24 million for the entrepreneur. https://minutesof.com/q/93f3886c-2578-413e-b571-6695b6251de4/ https://minutesof.com/q/93f3886c-2578-413e-b571-6695b6251de4/ “And so if you have a killer product that might elicit a $30,000,000 exit and you can bootstrap and hustle your way and own 80% of it, you know, 80% of 30,000,000 is $24,000,000.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley calculates that owning eighty percent of a thirty million dollar exit yields twenty-four million for th https://minutesof.com/q/5938c5fa-f2af-4c79-9aaa-40bb38bb6457/ https://minutesof.com/q/5938c5fa-f2af-4c79-9aaa-40bb38bb6457/ “if you have a killer product that might elicit a $30,000,000 exit and you can bootstrap and hustle your way and own 80% of it, you know, 80% of 30,000,000 is $24,000,000.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley cites DP Review, a one-person digital camera review site acquired by Amazon for forty to seventy millio https://minutesof.com/q/f117dfac-51f1-444d-b5ac-45adae440a89/ https://minutesof.com/q/f117dfac-51f1-444d-b5ac-45adae440a89/ “I love this story of DP Review, which is a website for digital camera reviews.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley cites DP Review selling to Amazon for $40-70 million as a single-founder bootstrapped success. https://minutesof.com/q/9b63b3bf-47be-4a2e-9553-8ad7e88bd799/ https://minutesof.com/q/9b63b3bf-47be-4a2e-9553-8ad7e88bd799/ “One guy, one founder and Amazon reported, no one knows the exact number, but I've heard anywhere from 40 to $70,000,000 for a single guy.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley explains Benchmark uses the phrase long term greedy and is not judged on IRR. https://minutesof.com/q/43f6b647-4d63-4553-8b60-0e08e4d161b7/ https://minutesof.com/q/43f6b647-4d63-4553-8b60-0e08e4d161b7/ “We have a phrase that not all the partners like to use, say we're long term greedy. You know, we're luckily in a business where we're not judged on IRR per se.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley explains Benchmark isn't judged on IRR and would pass on 20% IRR deals due to board seat limits. https://minutesof.com/q/eaf3533c-a506-49d8-93bb-eb229aba5452/ https://minutesof.com/q/eaf3533c-a506-49d8-93bb-eb229aba5452/ “You know, we're luckily in a business where we're not judged on IRR per se.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley says Benchmark turns down twenty percent IRR opportunities because LPs invest for beta and home runs, n https://minutesof.com/q/69fad620-90e5-4b10-8957-a17c4519d1da/ https://minutesof.com/q/69fad620-90e5-4b10-8957-a17c4519d1da/ “Like if there's an opportunity where we can make a 20% IRR someone might go, oh you should do every one of those, but we're limited by the number of board seats we can take and our LPs are investing in us to get beta and so they want the home runs” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley says no LP in Benchmark's history has ever asked them to provide liquidity faster. https://minutesof.com/q/76427795-dc05-469d-a2c8-2a3e76beb837/ https://minutesof.com/q/76427795-dc05-469d-a2c8-2a3e76beb837/ “And we've never once, never in the history of the firm as I ever recall a limited partner calling us and saying why aren't you getting us liquidity faster?” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:49:11 +0000 Gurley says carrier consolidation from four to three increases oligopoly power and reduces venture opportuniti https://minutesof.com/q/c5db4956-2b8c-471f-9cd0-7af04554e1dc/ https://minutesof.com/q/c5db4956-2b8c-471f-9cd0-7af04554e1dc/ “Having more oligopic behavior within that industry is gonna from my perspective lead to less innovation not more.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:15:50 +0000 Gurley argues oligopolistic carrier consolidation reduces innovation and makes ventures targeting carriers dif https://minutesof.com/q/26d5648c-8b55-4bba-ab8b-7f279690f02d/ https://minutesof.com/q/26d5648c-8b55-4bba-ab8b-7f279690f02d/ “It had already become very difficult for us to seed ventures where the primary customer was the carrier” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:15:50 +0000 Gurley says carrier consolidation from four to three increases market power and makes venture funding harder. https://minutesof.com/q/2192ef8c-888c-43fa-a4a3-8ec3e0921914/ https://minutesof.com/q/2192ef8c-888c-43fa-a4a3-8ec3e0921914/ “It had already become very difficult for us to seed ventures where the primary customer was the carrier And so now to have three instead of four, you just increase the market power of those of those players.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:15:50 +0000 Gurley argues cloud migration is the most investable theme, predicting ten years of pulling enterprise compute https://minutesof.com/q/64537e8e-4eb2-4a46-9e39-1957b93efeef/ https://minutesof.com/q/64537e8e-4eb2-4a46-9e39-1957b93efeef/ “this is to me one of the most investable themes of our time simply because we spent the last thirty to forty years putting computing technology inside the enterprise Right.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:15:50 +0000 Gurley says cloud migration is the most investable theme, predicting ten years of pulling enterprise computing https://minutesof.com/q/c17bad13-e9cb-4b5f-8ca0-9c92b0f1e8e9/ https://minutesof.com/q/c17bad13-e9cb-4b5f-8ca0-9c92b0f1e8e9/ “one of the most investable themes of our time simply because we spent the last thirty to forty years putting computing technology inside the enterprise Right.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:15:50 +0000 we spent the last thirty to forty years putting computing technology inside the enterprise Right. And we're go https://minutesof.com/q/9f05d634-82ad-44a5-98db-32aac881326f/ https://minutesof.com/q/9f05d634-82ad-44a5-98db-32aac881326f/ “we spent the last thirty to forty years putting computing technology inside the enterprise Right. And we're gonna spend the next ten pulling it out.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:15:50 +0000 Gurley names Grubhub as a Benchmark investment illustrating the cloud opportunity for small business. https://minutesof.com/q/5cf50bae-8dce-47e1-835a-ee420499c119/ https://minutesof.com/q/5cf50bae-8dce-47e1-835a-ee420499c119/ “Grubhub is a great example. Grubhub? You probably haven't heard of this company. It's one of our investments.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:15:50 +0000 Gurley describes cloud-connected workflows from business to consumer through apps as unexploited white space a https://minutesof.com/q/27bf88ff-f7f6-4f53-be44-230ed6cfa76a/ https://minutesof.com/q/27bf88ff-f7f6-4f53-be44-230ed6cfa76a/ “Once it's in the cloud, they connect to Zillow, they connect to rent.com, they push the listings out, they communicate with the end user of the apartment, and so this workflow that starts to be connected from the cloud to the small business, to the consumer, to the smartphone app, that's all white space in a bunch of different verticals.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:15:50 +0000 Gurley lists five portfolio companies connecting small businesses online and reports seeing strong current int https://minutesof.com/q/1019a4c5-9f84-48ca-8310-4140a5e5cffc/ https://minutesof.com/q/1019a4c5-9f84-48ca-8310-4140a5e5cffc/ “we have a number of investments from Yelp to OpenTable to Zillow to Grubhub to UberCab, where all these companies build this technology to connect these small businesses, and we're seeing unbelievable interest from these small businesses in in being online and having an online presence.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:15:50 +0000 Gurley claims late-stage private market investments have less information than pink sheet stocks and may be hi https://minutesof.com/q/b8da8232-6ed3-4096-995a-a207b098d14c/ https://minutesof.com/q/b8da8232-6ed3-4096-995a-a207b098d14c/ “I mean, you you could have more financial information on a thinly traded pink sheet Canadian public company than you have.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:15:50 +0000 Gurley calls late-stage private investments the least informed in history, with less disclosure than pink shee https://minutesof.com/q/2eca078a-cb1a-4a09-881b-1c065c3f202d/ https://minutesof.com/q/2eca078a-cb1a-4a09-881b-1c065c3f202d/ “These these might be these might be the least informed investment actions in in our history.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:15:50 +0000 Gurley argues late-stage private investments may be the least informed in history and shouldn't be equated to https://minutesof.com/q/618aafb5-890f-4d28-83f1-d1c2c9249819/ https://minutesof.com/q/618aafb5-890f-4d28-83f1-d1c2c9249819/ “These these might be these might be the least informed investment actions in in our history. And so I don't know that you can pay too much attention to the price because they're very uninformed.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:15:50 +0000 Gurley explains that struggling Silicon Valley companies suffer brain drain due to abundant alternative opport https://minutesof.com/q/5a617821-0a3b-42ca-a71c-b08d375f3ca4/ https://minutesof.com/q/5a617821-0a3b-42ca-a71c-b08d375f3ca4/ “In Silicon Valley, when you have a company on the outs, there are so many job opportunities around here. You get the brain drain, the creative talent leaves.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 26 Aug 2011 00:33:21 +0000 Gurley recounts learning Jobs personally decided which icons appear on the iPhone home screen. https://minutesof.com/q/1a8b4973-fbdb-4571-905b-87704a042543/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a8b4973-fbdb-4571-905b-87704a042543/ “Because we've got some great companies, Zillow, OpenTable, and I love to talk to him about getting something on there. And he just starts laughing.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 26 Aug 2011 00:33:21 +0000 Gurley argues most great leaders delegate because no one can be expert in everything at scale. https://minutesof.com/q/599621c3-1f8d-4c04-9cc8-9743043ab56c/ https://minutesof.com/q/599621c3-1f8d-4c04-9cc8-9743043ab56c/ “I think there are very few great leaders. If you were to just take a picture of a whole bunch of great leaders, most of them are good at delegation, getting other people to make decisions because organizations are so large, and no one has the capacity to be an expert in so many things.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 26 Aug 2011 00:33:21 +0000 Gurley cites Jobs' decision to exclude Flash from iPad as example of gutsy feature removal. https://minutesof.com/q/08db96fb-dfea-4a75-844c-c9a3bbd370a2/ https://minutesof.com/q/08db96fb-dfea-4a75-844c-c9a3bbd370a2/ “The decision not to put flash in the iPad. Right. Here's a fundamental reason for that, but that's a gutsy bet.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 26 Aug 2011 00:33:21 +0000 Gurley notes Apple grew from $2 billion to $343 billion market cap under Jobs, exceeding Microsoft and Intel c https://minutesof.com/q/27951534-4f38-48a7-aeb9-aa46f1b47393/ https://minutesof.com/q/27951534-4f38-48a7-aeb9-aa46f1b47393/ “started at $2,000,000,000 when in market cap when he came in. Today, they're three forty three and bigger than Microsoft and Intel combined.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 26 Aug 2011 00:33:21 +0000 Gurley says Jobs's CEO execution level is unprecedented, crediting Cook's operational contributions. https://minutesof.com/q/039bc3b4-52d3-4f87-a9ea-1657e9718319/ https://minutesof.com/q/039bc3b4-52d3-4f87-a9ea-1657e9718319/ “I don't know if whoever sees CEO execution of this level. Of course, it's not just the CEO execution. You got what Tim Cook's done in operation.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 26 Aug 2011 00:33:21 +0000 Gurley says Benchmark will have four IPOs this year, unprecedented for a single venture firm in a long time. https://minutesof.com/q/76520b24-417d-4404-847e-e78cdf0a274a/ https://minutesof.com/q/76520b24-417d-4404-847e-e78cdf0a274a/ “Earlier today, one of our investments, Ambarella, filed, which will be our fourth IPO this year. And that hasn't happened, you know, for a single venture firm in a very long time.” — Bloomberg Originals Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:20:44 +0000 Gurley says Benchmark will have four IPOs this year, unprecedented for a single venture firm in a long time. https://minutesof.com/q/34a23fc7-4680-4393-9577-7c376ba6317c/ https://minutesof.com/q/34a23fc7-4680-4393-9577-7c376ba6317c/ “Ambarella, filed, which will be our fourth IPO this year. And that hasn't happened, you know, for a single venture firm in a very long time.” — Bloomberg Originals Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:20:44 +0000 Gurley observes IPO market valuations currently exceed M&A market valuations. https://minutesof.com/q/5b9b5710-3c8a-48a0-9706-647ea75484cf/ https://minutesof.com/q/5b9b5710-3c8a-48a0-9706-647ea75484cf/ “I think another interesting characteristic of that, in my mind, the IPO market's paying much higher valuations in the m and a market right now.” — Bloomberg Originals Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:20:44 +0000 Gurley explains that the financial crisis caused institutional investors to drastically reduce venture capital https://minutesof.com/q/0fb077f6-d4df-459e-b36c-fa025d9a6644/ https://minutesof.com/q/0fb077f6-d4df-459e-b36c-fa025d9a6644/ “When the financial crisis happened, that model kinda came undone, and everyone has drastically reduced the amount of money they allocate to this category.” — Bloomberg Originals Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:20:44 +0000 Gurley says venture firm count has shrunk dramatically after endowments reduced illiquid asset allocations pos https://minutesof.com/q/962f6772-44c3-4afd-90f3-f4af663ef18b/ https://minutesof.com/q/962f6772-44c3-4afd-90f3-f4af663ef18b/ “And as a result, the number of venture firms has begun to shrunk rather dramatically.” — Bloomberg Originals Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:20:44 +0000 Gurley argues organic versus bought traffic is a critical distinction for valuing Internet businesses. https://minutesof.com/q/be64aa0b-ac89-425a-98c8-c96afd8fb140/ https://minutesof.com/q/be64aa0b-ac89-425a-98c8-c96afd8fb140/ “One that one that I think people really should focus on is where, especially for these Internet businesses, is whether traffic is organic or bought.” — Bloomberg Originals Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:20:44 +0000 Gurley distinguishes between companies that buy traffic through marketing versus those with organic customer a https://minutesof.com/q/f8cc7cc3-b22e-41dd-b39d-38c99d6d7e62/ https://minutesof.com/q/f8cc7cc3-b22e-41dd-b39d-38c99d6d7e62/ “Any company that's spending heavily on marketing to drive people in, that's just a far different value proposition than someone who has a product that's so good that everyone comes to it.” — Bloomberg Originals Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:20:44 +0000 Gurley lists Google, Skype, OpenTable, and LinkedIn as examples of companies that never ran ads to grow. https://minutesof.com/q/6739783b-4e15-4875-bc06-8b7bdf592788/ https://minutesof.com/q/6739783b-4e15-4875-bc06-8b7bdf592788/ “Google never ran marketing ads, you know, in its day to get to get big. Skype never ran ads. OpenTable never ran ads. Linkedin doesn't run ads.” — Bloomberg Originals Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:20:44 +0000 Gurley argues marketing-heavy companies rent customers and should trade at lower multiples than organic-growth https://minutesof.com/q/eb0aae37-546e-401d-9f11-b639e7e6f6b6/ https://minutesof.com/q/eb0aae37-546e-401d-9f11-b639e7e6f6b6/ “I don't see any reason why a company that's heavy on marketing will get the same kind of multiple as someone with an organic customer base.” — Bloomberg Originals Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:20:44 +0000 Gurley argues daily deal business value is inversely tied to platform rake, like a casino. https://minutesof.com/q/e31d75c1-2b6a-42a0-948e-2888eed41196/ https://minutesof.com/q/e31d75c1-2b6a-42a0-948e-2888eed41196/ “The thing that strikes me about the deal business is that the value to the customer is a direct function of the rake of the platform or the margin the platform maker takes.” — Bloomberg Originals Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:20:44 +0000 Gurley argues daily deal platforms with lower take rates will inevitably attract more customers than high-rake https://minutesof.com/q/81072470-5f7d-4010-825d-69979c0b10fc/ https://minutesof.com/q/81072470-5f7d-4010-825d-69979c0b10fc/ “In other words if you had a casino on one side of the street that took a 50% rake and another one on the other that took a 10% rake, eventually all the customers are gonna go to where the rake's 10%. Right?” — Bloomberg Originals Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:20:44 +0000 Gurley predicts Facebook or Google could offer better daily deals by taking lower rake. https://minutesof.com/q/3cea8659-1720-4c1c-8fc9-7f66bdb3aa49/ https://minutesof.com/q/3cea8659-1720-4c1c-8fc9-7f66bdb3aa49/ “So if we see a Facebook or a Google offering a much lower rake to participate, I think it's inevitable that they have better offers.” — Bloomberg Originals Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:20:44 +0000 Gurley states that only three out of 25-30 IPOs this year were unprofitable at launch. https://minutesof.com/q/d7cdd27a-f66f-40d3-a5e0-1c46fe40126b/ https://minutesof.com/q/d7cdd27a-f66f-40d3-a5e0-1c46fe40126b/ “I think of the 25 or 30 this year, three were not profitable at the time of going out.” — TechCrunch Fri, 01 Oct 2010 23:16:15 +0000 the number of IPOs, as Michael mentioned, have been 30 in the first half of this year versus five in 'eight an https://minutesof.com/q/7c275de9-0f7c-4fb4-b11d-a8bef2730f95/ https://minutesof.com/q/7c275de9-0f7c-4fb4-b11d-a8bef2730f95/ “the number of IPOs, as Michael mentioned, have been 30 in the first half of this year versus five in 'eight and twelve in 'nine.” — TechCrunch Fri, 01 Oct 2010 23:16:15 +0000 Gurley states the historical median for high-tech VC-backed IPOs is around sixty, excluding the bubble period. https://minutesof.com/q/22bad725-6831-41d8-bfbb-cc238b52f5f3/ https://minutesof.com/q/22bad725-6831-41d8-bfbb-cc238b52f5f3/ “If you look, if you ignore that period of time, the number of high-tech VC backed IPOs is somewhere between sixty and” — TechCrunch Fri, 01 Oct 2010 23:16:15 +0000 Gurley predicts staying private will eventually cost more than going public for some companies. https://minutesof.com/q/338318fb-fedf-4a34-bc8a-01fd0e392000/ https://minutesof.com/q/338318fb-fedf-4a34-bc8a-01fd0e392000/ “Well, at some point, I think they're gonna be spending more dollars avoiding public than being public. It's just going be more of a hassle.” — TechCrunch Fri, 01 Oct 2010 23:16:15 +0000 Gurley cites Data Domain and ArcSight as examples of IPO-then-acquisition premium strategy working. https://minutesof.com/q/0f369672-7f47-4108-9733-1dc1708e515c/ https://minutesof.com/q/0f369672-7f47-4108-9733-1dc1708e515c/ “Another interesting thing is with Data Domain and ArcSight and three part, you've seen companies go public, establish a valuation and then get an M and A premium on top of that.” — TechCrunch Fri, 01 Oct 2010 23:16:15 +0000 Gurley notes public mergers avoid the 10-15% escrow typical of private acquisitions. https://minutesof.com/q/a46fd433-862f-48f4-a223-af0e65e90ea1/ https://minutesof.com/q/a46fd433-862f-48f4-a223-af0e65e90ea1/ “And one last thing most entrepreneurs probably don't know, when you do a public merger, there's no escrow.” — TechCrunch Fri, 01 Oct 2010 23:16:15 +0000 Gurley points out that public mergers have no escrow while private ones typically hold 10 to 15 percent in esc https://minutesof.com/q/06d2c8b2-6989-4350-a64d-32ce5d2142f0/ https://minutesof.com/q/06d2c8b2-6989-4350-a64d-32ce5d2142f0/ “And one last thing most entrepreneurs probably don't know, when you do a public merger, there's no escrow. And most private ones have 10 to 15% escrow,” — TechCrunch Fri, 01 Oct 2010 23:16:15 +0000 Gurley notes public mergers avoid the 10-15% escrow typical in private deals, adding financial advantage. https://minutesof.com/q/86e56cef-6f92-4fd9-86f7-d9c882bc06a9/ https://minutesof.com/q/86e56cef-6f92-4fd9-86f7-d9c882bc06a9/ “And most private ones have 10 to 15% escrow, so that's even another part of the price that doesn't you know, that's advantageous to the public.” — TechCrunch Fri, 01 Oct 2010 23:16:15 +0000