The Minutes of Bill Gurley on ai scaling laws https://minutesof.com/bill-gurley/on/ai-scaling-laws/ Everything Bill Gurley has said on ai scaling laws: 3 verbatim quotes from November 2024, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording it came from. en Mon, 31 Aug 2026 13:09:33 +0000 Gurley identifies parameter count ceiling as key scaling law constraint where adding variables stops adding va https://minutesof.com/q/08070d61-6181-4091-b574-2385e59a9851/ https://minutesof.com/q/08070d61-6181-4091-b574-2385e59a9851/ “But when you take the variables up to a certain level, they they they it stops adding value. You just get too close to the fit.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:09:14 +0000 ai scaling laws Gurley says OpenAI and Anthropic promised linear or better scaling with 10x then 100x spending increases. https://minutesof.com/q/04202446-e0f5-4683-98ee-8af6663ac2c5/ https://minutesof.com/q/04202446-e0f5-4683-98ee-8af6663ac2c5/ “there was a argument being made by, you know, OpenAI and Anthropic that, oh, you're just gonna see the next number drop and the next number's gonna be way better than the last number.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:09:14 +0000 ai scaling laws Gurley argues scaling law slowdown represents a surprise shift from Sam and Dario's expectations twelve months https://minutesof.com/q/0001ed59-99a5-4ce0-b7af-0905a12eb000/ https://minutesof.com/q/0001ed59-99a5-4ce0-b7af-0905a12eb000/ “The first thing that comes to my mind, and once again, I'm not asking you to agree with this, it's just like what's in my head, is that this is not the expectation that Sam and Dario had twelve months ago.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:09:14 +0000 ai scaling laws