The Minutes of Bill Gurley on returns https://minutesof.com/bill-gurley/on/returns/ Everything Bill Gurley has said on returns: 8 verbatim quotes between December 2012 and June 2025, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording it… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:22:00 +0000 Gurley calculates that delaying exits from year ten to fifteen requires 2.5x higher returns to meet expectatio https://minutesof.com/q/e29dbda1-8142-4974-8ce0-af18c18eae60/ https://minutesof.com/q/e29dbda1-8142-4974-8ce0-af18c18eae60/ “If you just take that 10% compounding, it now needs to be worth a $160 in year fifteen.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 returns Gurley calculates that delaying exits five years requires 2.5x higher returns due to compounding and dilution. https://minutesof.com/q/9ad3b046-f346-4b29-bf9d-0d59be68614b/ https://minutesof.com/q/9ad3b046-f346-4b29-bf9d-0d59be68614b/ “If you make the argument that these people invested in venture to get a big return, then your cost of capital is not five.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 returns Gurley says firms that exited in the late 1990s bubble missed the vast majority of returns. https://minutesof.com/q/1999384c-643e-44d4-bfb8-a478a7df965f/ https://minutesof.com/q/1999384c-643e-44d4-bfb8-a478a7df965f/ “But the vast majority of the returns are in these periods at the top of these bubbles.” — Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 returns Gurley says venture capital returns are heavily dependent on performance during the hottest part of market cyc https://minutesof.com/q/07f83cae-c84a-4ad1-81b4-6776d3832448/ https://minutesof.com/q/07f83cae-c84a-4ad1-81b4-6776d3832448/ “what I realized was that the IRR numbers and the ROI numbers on the venture capital category were heavily dependent on performance in the hottest part of the cycle and so in the tip of that sawtooth” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 returns Gurley found that venture capital returns are heavily dependent on performance during the hottest part of cycl https://minutesof.com/q/f4b8422e-b5ab-4f54-b76f-4f5b03caeb54/ https://minutesof.com/q/f4b8422e-b5ab-4f54-b76f-4f5b03caeb54/ “the IRR numbers and the ROI numbers on the venture capital category were heavily dependent on performance in the hottest part of the cycle” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 returns Gurley argues that funding businesses because capital is cheap is equivalent to funding low-return businesses. https://minutesof.com/q/fdfccf6b-0c20-47c3-9a39-376d35f04df9/ https://minutesof.com/q/fdfccf6b-0c20-47c3-9a39-376d35f04df9/ “The exact flip way of saying that is, I'm excited about funding low return businesses and I'm gonna go do it.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 returns Gurley says top ten venture funds all fell out when their single best performer was removed. https://minutesof.com/q/4deb26f8-e394-4711-b277-35e2bbc8e185/ https://minutesof.com/q/4deb26f8-e394-4711-b277-35e2bbc8e185/ “And then they took the top performer out of those funds and they all fell out of the top 10 or maybe one of them stayed.” — GigaOm Fri, 14 Dec 2012 18:03:42 +0000 returns Gurley cites LP analysis showing top 10 VC funds all fell out when removing their single best performer. https://minutesof.com/q/5bb74cef-13b5-4330-9ef6-8b858e3eeb32/ https://minutesof.com/q/5bb74cef-13b5-4330-9ef6-8b858e3eeb32/ “And then they took the top performer out of those funds and they all fell out of the top 10 or maybe one of them stayed.” — GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:56:41 +0000 returns