The Minutes of Brad Gerstner https://minutesof.com/brad-gerstner/ Brad Gerstner: 526 verbatim quotes from 187 appearances on nvidia, openai and valuation. Latest July 2026. Every quote timestamped and linked to its… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:21:48 +0000 Gerstner offers to escalate a user's Invest America activation issue and add fifty dollars for the hassle https://minutesof.com/q/92f8b46b-09b5-436c-8001-4dafa5bb352b/ https://minutesof.com/q/92f8b46b-09b5-436c-8001-4dafa5bb352b/ “@RexMacMillan @TrumpAccounts I just bumped this up. Hopefully, will get resolved soon. Once you get the account open and hit me up and I’ll put in an extra $50 for the hassle. 🙏🇺🇸” — X Sat, 29 Aug 2026 20:46:44 +0000 Gerstner argues replacing a software engineer may require 2 million expensive tokens where quality matters sig https://minutesof.com/q/3e6d5a7b-33d9-42df-859c-42d179ffedf7/ https://minutesof.com/q/3e6d5a7b-33d9-42df-859c-42d179ffedf7/ “if you're talking about replacing a software engineer for two hours, that may take 2,000,000 expensive tokens. And the consequence of using something that's 95% as good is really high.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 13 Jul 2026 20:30:36 +0000 Gerstner uses consulting firms charging $200/hour as example for AI agent replacement economics. https://minutesof.com/q/02ff18ea-bd72-4976-96b4-707b77204638/ https://minutesof.com/q/02ff18ea-bd72-4976-96b4-707b77204638/ “if an AI agent is replacing a $200 an hour consultant right? Take that as an example. So three consulting firms, they're competing. They need the smartest consultant. It they're charging $200 an hour.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 13 Jul 2026 20:30:36 +0000 Gerstner says $3 vs $15 inference cost is irrelevant when replacing $200/hour consultants with AI. https://minutesof.com/q/66b4e5c7-97fa-4ee3-be7d-b6576e351c41/ https://minutesof.com/q/66b4e5c7-97fa-4ee3-be7d-b6576e351c41/ “It's just irrelevance. That inference cost difference is irrelevant if you're getting something that's bulletproof for $15.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 13 Jul 2026 20:30:36 +0000 Gerstner asserts there is no evidence the gap between commodity and frontier AI models is collapsing. https://minutesof.com/q/a8d1c486-d4d7-4326-9c95-7b5d622f81a8/ https://minutesof.com/q/a8d1c486-d4d7-4326-9c95-7b5d622f81a8/ “People are speculating that the intelligence gap between that commodity stuff and the frontier stuff is going to collapse to the point that people won't pay for the frontier stuff.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 13 Jul 2026 20:30:36 +0000 Gerstner predicts AI companies ending the year over $100B could triple to quintuple revenue next year. https://minutesof.com/q/5f3c7550-2121-4825-8582-416232c8b742/ https://minutesof.com/q/5f3c7550-2121-4825-8582-416232c8b742/ “If these guys end the year over 100,000,000,000, I think that they're on a revenue trajectory that they could three to five x again next year.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 11 Jul 2026 16:00:19 +0000 Gerstner says $200B of incremental revenue is incomprehensible in Silicon Valley history. https://minutesof.com/q/d8aca40b-82c8-4ecb-a41d-faf992c93daf/ https://minutesof.com/q/d8aca40b-82c8-4ecb-a41d-faf992c93daf/ “We're talking from 100,000,000,000 to 300,000,000,000. 200,000,000,000 of incremental revenue is incomprehensible in the history of Silicon Valley.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 11 Jul 2026 16:00:19 +0000 Gerstner argues intelligence represents the largest total addressable market in history. https://minutesof.com/q/79e46948-e35b-467d-9f50-5fc69f6cc495/ https://minutesof.com/q/79e46948-e35b-467d-9f50-5fc69f6cc495/ “I think the thing that's different is that intelligence is the largest TAM we've ever seen in the history of the world.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 11 Jul 2026 16:00:19 +0000 Every child forevermore born into this country under the age of two is gonna get a thousand dollars invested i https://minutesof.com/q/e2a7525b-805a-4d7f-a145-0eeb6b8ec15e/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2a7525b-805a-4d7f-a145-0eeb6b8ec15e/ “Every child forevermore born into this country under the age of two is gonna get a thousand dollars invested in the S and P 500 that can compound for their lifetime.” — Altimeter Capital Mon, 06 Jul 2026 17:55:46 +0000 Gerstner announces Gwen Shotwell gifted 2 million SpaceX shares to 2 million children through Invest America a https://minutesof.com/q/fe4b403e-f197-416c-a938-03fd2deeb92c/ https://minutesof.com/q/fe4b403e-f197-416c-a938-03fd2deeb92c/ “Gwen Shotwell's gift this morning, an extraordinary gift. 2,000,000 shares of SpaceX to 2,000,000 kids that they'll hold in their accounts over the course of the the next ten to to twenty years.” — Altimeter Capital Mon, 06 Jul 2026 17:55:46 +0000 Gerstner says the president asked him and Michael Dell to raise $100 billion, with tens of billions already co https://minutesof.com/q/3b7857d4-d51b-4018-9757-837e6b45d960/ https://minutesof.com/q/3b7857d4-d51b-4018-9757-837e6b45d960/ “The president asked Michael Dell and I to go out and raise a $100,000,000,000 for these Trump accounts and we're well on our way.” — Altimeter Capital Mon, 06 Jul 2026 17:55:46 +0000 Gerstner expects Social Security Administration to auto-create 70 million accounts for all children under 18 w https://minutesof.com/q/95f5a8c4-ec16-46af-8692-6070ffdb707e/ https://minutesof.com/q/95f5a8c4-ec16-46af-8692-6070ffdb707e/ “I hope that over the course of the next few months we're going to be auto creating with the Social Security Administration 70,000,000 accounts for every kid under the age of 18 so that we can get this money into those accounts and and get it compounding.” — Altimeter Capital Mon, 06 Jul 2026 17:55:46 +0000 Gerstner claims AI investment is contributing over 100 basis points to US GDP growth this year. https://minutesof.com/q/bc9b5389-5ba9-49dc-aed3-256d1972f3b4/ https://minutesof.com/q/bc9b5389-5ba9-49dc-aed3-256d1972f3b4/ “This is the single most important contributor to the GDP growth of The United States Of America this year. It's contributing over a 100 basis points of our GDP growth.” — Altimeter Capital Mon, 06 Jul 2026 17:55:46 +0000 Gerstner says Elon has struck deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection generating significant revenue. https://minutesof.com/q/8cfb15ce-c73f-44d0-8cd5-6b868694e402/ https://minutesof.com/q/8cfb15ce-c73f-44d0-8cd5-6b868694e402/ “He's he's struck incredible deals with Anthropic and Google and Reflection and others. Really smart. Generated terrific amount of revenue.” — Altimeter Capital Mon, 06 Jul 2026 17:55:46 +0000 Gerstner announces that starting Saturday, every American child born will receive a $1,000 S&P 500 account at https://minutesof.com/q/8ee5e74b-d44a-48ed-855a-13dc0cb97226/ https://minutesof.com/q/8ee5e74b-d44a-48ed-855a-13dc0cb97226/ “The idea that starting this Saturday, every child born forevermore forevermore in the history of America will get an investment account at birth, seeded with a thousand dollars in the S and P 500 that will compound for their lifetime.” — Altimeter Capital Thu, 02 Jul 2026 20:07:21 +0000 Gerstner reports Micron announced $250 million for a million kids' accounts this week. https://minutesof.com/q/4aa7b82e-1b1e-435d-a3f9-4bc41a933646/ https://minutesof.com/q/4aa7b82e-1b1e-435d-a3f9-4bc41a933646/ “And the momentum we have around this is totally extraordinary. Every company that is signing up to add money to the accounts of of of the kids, of their employees, companies like Micron, Sanjay announced this week, $250,000,000 going to a million kids in the communities they serve.” — Altimeter Capital Thu, 02 Jul 2026 20:07:21 +0000 Gerstner says billions more in corporate contributions to children's accounts are queued up beyond the $6.25 b https://minutesof.com/q/b8adfca0-cd37-4f15-b377-8f8e9e8b3b18/ https://minutesof.com/q/b8adfca0-cd37-4f15-b377-8f8e9e8b3b18/ “Of course, everybody's familiar with the $6,250,000,000 gift from the Dells, but we have Ray Dalio in Connecticut, me in Indiana, Harold Hammond in Oklahoma.” — Altimeter Capital Thu, 02 Jul 2026 20:07:21 +0000 Gerstner predicts a robust back half if OpenAI hits $100 billion exit revenue and IPOs this year. https://minutesof.com/q/000da9f5-9c45-42be-bcc4-8021a5f9c2a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/000da9f5-9c45-42be-bcc4-8021a5f9c2a3/ “If that revenue is on track, right, if they're headed to a $100,000,000,000 of exit revenue, you know, this year and and and have an IPO in the back half, I think you could see a really robust, you know, back half of the year.” — Altimeter Capital Thu, 02 Jul 2026 20:07:21 +0000 Gerstner reveals he's asking AI companies including OpenAI to voluntarily contribute 1% of shares to children' https://minutesof.com/q/178f45cd-06ce-43e6-bb7a-82d7975df4ec/ https://minutesof.com/q/178f45cd-06ce-43e6-bb7a-82d7975df4ec/ “You know, we could set up a dedicated citizen pool where all the money could go that, and it goes directly to citizens.” — Altimeter Capital Thu, 02 Jul 2026 20:07:21 +0000 Gerstner opposes any government seizure of company equity regardless of party, calling it unconstitutional and https://minutesof.com/q/4d00cad0-e352-4e5f-bd8c-eb9a7e8a0eff/ https://minutesof.com/q/4d00cad0-e352-4e5f-bd8c-eb9a7e8a0eff/ “You pick the number. I don't care who's suggesting it. I don't care if a Republican suggesting it. I don't care if a Democrat's suggesting it.” — Altimeter Capital Thu, 02 Jul 2026 20:07:21 +0000 Gerstner cites Micron's $250 million contribution to a million kids and the Dells' $6.25 billion gift. https://minutesof.com/q/5f34e446-d057-4b98-a104-f0e9ec69d552/ https://minutesof.com/q/5f34e446-d057-4b98-a104-f0e9ec69d552/ “Companies like Micron, Sanjay announced this week, $250,000,000 going to a million kids in the communities they serve. Of course, everybody's familiar with the $6,250,000,000 gift from the Dells,” — CNBC Television Thu, 02 Jul 2026 19:39:39 +0000 Gerstner says he has billions in additional announcements queued up for children's accounts. https://minutesof.com/q/fc83b8a7-09fb-4d7f-8d51-79820bbdb09e/ https://minutesof.com/q/fc83b8a7-09fb-4d7f-8d51-79820bbdb09e/ “And I can tell you, I have billions and billions of announcements in queue for the kids. This is bonus dollars” — CNBC Television Thu, 02 Jul 2026 19:39:39 +0000 Gerstner says children will own shares in SpaceX, Google, and OpenAI as part of a decades-long journey. https://minutesof.com/q/70342b72-757d-4742-9428-ab160df3adc6/ https://minutesof.com/q/70342b72-757d-4742-9428-ab160df3adc6/ “Owning some shares in SpaceX, in Google, in OpenAI, and in Thropping. And all these companies that we're talking about, this is step one. Remember, this is a journey that will last decades,” — CNBC Television Thu, 02 Jul 2026 19:39:39 +0000 Gerstner announces first-ever joint NYSE-Nasdaq opening bell from the Oval Office on Monday. https://minutesof.com/q/d7ef11ae-aa0a-4c5a-b406-fdd3f61566ac/ https://minutesof.com/q/d7ef11ae-aa0a-4c5a-b406-fdd3f61566ac/ “I'll be at the White House on Monday for a historic joint bell ringing where the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are coming together for the first time, and we're gonna ring the opening bell, a joint bell from the Oval Office” — CNBC Television Thu, 02 Jul 2026 19:39:39 +0000 Gerstner argues direct stock gifts to all children enable large-scale philanthropy without overhead. https://minutesof.com/q/a254884b-f762-480c-b560-1ab6a0814fc0/ https://minutesof.com/q/a254884b-f762-480c-b560-1ab6a0814fc0/ “Think about the transformational effect of that. So we now have the ability to have large scale direct philanthropy,” — CNBC Television Thu, 02 Jul 2026 19:39:39 +0000 Gerstner cites research showing children with savings have better educational, economic, and incarceration out https://minutesof.com/q/78ee0809-37d8-4200-be30-792d9fa5af84/ https://minutesof.com/q/78ee0809-37d8-4200-be30-792d9fa5af84/ “And we know when kids have savings, when they have investment, they're more likely to graduate from high school and college. They're more likely to buy a home.” — CNBC Television Thu, 02 Jul 2026 19:39:39 +0000 Gerstner says SpaceX moved to $27 billion AI hyperscaler revenue in six weeks with Anthropic and Google deals. https://minutesof.com/q/26faf65e-92b5-4630-90c0-444aad1b40ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/26faf65e-92b5-4630-90c0-444aad1b40ae/ “In literally six weeks, they went from not in the game to $27,000,000,000 of AI hyperscaler revenue with big deals Google? With big deals from Anthropic and Google.” — Altimeter Capital Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:55:26 +0000 Gerstner predicts SpaceX will become the largest AI hyperscaler in the United States within a few years. https://minutesof.com/q/798fe64b-4568-417f-b494-0c5610d614c8/ https://minutesof.com/q/798fe64b-4568-417f-b494-0c5610d614c8/ “My estimate is in a few years, they're gonna be the largest AI hyperscaler in The United States.” — Altimeter Capital Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:55:26 +0000 Gerstner says Altimeter considered Cursor the next best lab after Frontier Labs, expecting $10 billion revenue https://minutesof.com/q/bdcca5ad-82aa-4024-bb64-a4a2ba8d4629/ https://minutesof.com/q/bdcca5ad-82aa-4024-bb64-a4a2ba8d4629/ “I think it was probably the next best lab in the country beyond the Frontier Labs. We thought this company could get to 10,000,000,000 in revenue on its own this year.” — Altimeter Capital Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:55:26 +0000 Gerstner explains SpaceX sold AI compute to Anthropic and Google at a premium due to U.S. compute shortage. https://minutesof.com/q/841d0fdf-9ddd-4e51-b3aa-3c7b2c6ac333/ https://minutesof.com/q/841d0fdf-9ddd-4e51-b3aa-3c7b2c6ac333/ “They just sold this compute to Anthropic and Google at a big premium, Scott, because we we are out of compute in this country.” — Altimeter Capital Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:55:26 +0000 Gerstner forecasts $20 to $30 billion in demand from index funds buying SpaceX in fifteen days. https://minutesof.com/q/3ac6196e-59b3-4262-a92b-937bc9268082/ https://minutesof.com/q/3ac6196e-59b3-4262-a92b-937bc9268082/ “In fifteen days from now, you're gonna see twenty to thirty billion dollars of demand roll into the market as the index funds start buying the security.” — Altimeter Capital Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:55:26 +0000 Gerstner says 60 to 70 percent of people don't participate in capital markets upside, expects related announce https://minutesof.com/q/999434f2-8311-48a8-afb8-f425c6a0e60a/ https://minutesof.com/q/999434f2-8311-48a8-afb8-f425c6a0e60a/ “60 to 70% of people today don't compound in the upside of our capital markets. I think you'll see a lot of announcements in the weeks ahead.” — Altimeter Capital Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:55:26 +0000 Gerstner identifies SK Hynix at 7x 2027 earnings as the single greatest bottleneck in token production. https://minutesof.com/q/f0ff4ce0-8d06-42c7-872d-d7d2d0bf00f1/ https://minutesof.com/q/f0ff4ce0-8d06-42c7-872d-d7d2d0bf00f1/ “SK Hynix. Back to your point, seven times twenty twenty seven numbers, the single greatest bottleneck in the production of tokens.” — Altimeter Capital Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:55:26 +0000 Every child under two, remember, is gonna get a thousand dollars automatically funded on July 4. Most kids bet https://minutesof.com/q/ca2ec590-b2ec-4ec2-ac41-b5c13b780b8b/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca2ec590-b2ec-4ec2-ac41-b5c13b780b8b/ “Every child under two, remember, is gonna get a thousand dollars automatically funded on July 4. Most kids between the age of two and 10 will get at least $250.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 29 May 2026 17:05:40 +0000 Gerstner explains Invest America funds will be invested in the top 500 US companies, making children direct sh https://minutesof.com/q/c6160188-2057-4886-b3f9-c9fde0213e05/ https://minutesof.com/q/c6160188-2057-4886-b3f9-c9fde0213e05/ “All of the money that goes into these accounts will be invested in the best 500 companies in America. They will be direct shareholders, a little bit of Nvidia,” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 29 May 2026 17:05:40 +0000 Gerstner calculates that $1,000 plus $50 monthly becomes $50,000 at 18 and $175,000 at 30. https://minutesof.com/q/421d3f08-274c-4ea7-b641-7334505c3427/ https://minutesof.com/q/421d3f08-274c-4ea7-b641-7334505c3427/ “If you start with a thousand and just add $50 a month, that's $50,000 at 18. That's a $175,000 at age 30.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 29 May 2026 17:05:40 +0000 Gerstner defends rotating out of Snowflake (up 10%) into Micron and Arm (both up 200% year-to-date). https://minutesof.com/q/d5ecdc44-f0c9-43d5-aa17-58b5359de935/ https://minutesof.com/q/d5ecdc44-f0c9-43d5-aa17-58b5359de935/ “Compare that what we moved the money into, like Micron, which is up 200% year to date, or Arm, which is up 200% year to date.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 29 May 2026 17:05:40 +0000 Gerstner says SpaceX IPO is rumored for June 12 at the New York Stock Exchange. https://minutesof.com/q/267c4dfc-527c-43f2-8c67-0657b85964a9/ https://minutesof.com/q/267c4dfc-527c-43f2-8c67-0657b85964a9/ “We have incredible IPOs coming starting with SpaceX rumored on June 12. Hopefully, I'll be back in the New York Stock Exchange with you guys.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 29 May 2026 17:05:40 +0000 Gerstner asserts Elon Musk is the best in the world at turning electrons into tokens. https://minutesof.com/q/1008cf46-972d-4b15-b3aa-45f932f60fb6/ https://minutesof.com/q/1008cf46-972d-4b15-b3aa-45f932f60fb6/ “There's no human being on the planet that is better at turning electrons into tokens than Elon Musk. Right? Let me say that again.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 29 May 2026 17:05:40 +0000 Gerstner reports Snowflake beat consensus with 33% growth versus 27% expected and raised full year guidance. https://minutesof.com/q/75c343f6-1ea3-4d3c-9e62-2a776bc99af9/ https://minutesof.com/q/75c343f6-1ea3-4d3c-9e62-2a776bc99af9/ “33% growth, accelerating growth versus consensus of 27% growth. They took up their full year guide by more than their q one beat.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 May 2026 17:00:15 +0000 Gerstner explains rotating from Snowflake (up 10%) into Micron and Arm (both up 200% year to date). https://minutesof.com/q/8abb85b0-70c4-4b99-8c05-28f07697891c/ https://minutesof.com/q/8abb85b0-70c4-4b99-8c05-28f07697891c/ “Compare that what we moved the money into, like Micron, which is up 200% year to date, or Arm, which is up 200% year to date.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 May 2026 17:00:15 +0000 Gerstner advises managing portfolios in three sizes: small, medium, and large position allocations. https://minutesof.com/q/fd937191-99ae-4e5b-91a9-88b38a35e280/ https://minutesof.com/q/fd937191-99ae-4e5b-91a9-88b38a35e280/ “A simple heuristic for the people watching at home, think about a sigh think about managing your portfolio in three sizes, small, medium, and large.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 May 2026 17:00:15 +0000 Gerstner states SpaceX IPO will raise approximately $75 billion and is rumored for June 12. https://minutesof.com/q/ca982319-8c30-482f-9daa-5b2284cccaad/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca982319-8c30-482f-9daa-5b2284cccaad/ “It's gonna be an incredible IPO. It's gonna raise about 75 it's gonna raise about $75,000,000,000.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 May 2026 17:00:15 +0000 Gerstner warns the market could see a 10 to 20% consolidation after recent gains. https://minutesof.com/q/31bc9965-bb52-401b-90c0-de580a832362/ https://minutesof.com/q/31bc9965-bb52-401b-90c0-de580a832362/ “But the bigger risk right now is simply that we've come a long way quickly. Right? We could have a 10 to 20% consolidation in the socks or these other technology and AI markets,” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 May 2026 17:00:15 +0000 Gerstner asserts Elon Musk is the best at converting electrons into AI tokens globally. https://minutesof.com/q/387a95cd-d890-4f6a-b70d-3463af3d5021/ https://minutesof.com/q/387a95cd-d890-4f6a-b70d-3463af3d5021/ “There's no human being on the planet that is better at turning electrons into tokens than Elon Musk.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 May 2026 17:00:15 +0000 Gerstner says Musk is building the largest data centers on Earth and eventually in space. https://minutesof.com/q/61e8f8d6-f0ae-42ed-aa4e-c33b32a5b543/ https://minutesof.com/q/61e8f8d6-f0ae-42ed-aa4e-c33b32a5b543/ “Elon is building the biggest data centers on Earth and eventually in space of anybody, and nobody is better at turning those electrons into tokens.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 May 2026 17:00:15 +0000 They've announced a trillion dollars over the course of the next six to eight quarters of demand on on, you kn https://minutesof.com/q/c732ff6b-f197-43b8-8938-d34421a963c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/c732ff6b-f197-43b8-8938-d34421a963c6/ “They've announced a trillion dollars over the course of the next six to eight quarters of demand on on, you know, Blackwell's and now Vera Rubins.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 15 May 2026 20:31:59 +0000 Gerstner argues that token production and consumption is the fundamental basis of all AI intelligence. https://minutesof.com/q/108fa4fc-95f6-46b6-b83f-019d063ae52f/ https://minutesof.com/q/108fa4fc-95f6-46b6-b83f-019d063ae52f/ “There is no intelligence. There's no consumer chat GPT. There's no enterprise intelligence. There's no clawed code without the production of tokens.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 15 May 2026 20:31:59 +0000 Gerstner says institutional demand for Cerebras is around $250-275 range, while demand over $300 is mostly ret https://minutesof.com/q/95fb74a5-3d35-4c34-8520-cb3bf93f56a7/ https://minutesof.com/q/95fb74a5-3d35-4c34-8520-cb3bf93f56a7/ “I would say it's more in that range. That's what I'm hearing from the institutions. I think most of the demand over 300 is frankly retail that listen.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 15 May 2026 20:31:59 +0000 Gerstner warns that 30-40% of compute is delayed this year, which could slow the entire AI trade if delays per https://minutesof.com/q/9a8caf62-46c4-44ea-a4a0-1f5fe7163727/ https://minutesof.com/q/9a8caf62-46c4-44ea-a4a0-1f5fe7163727/ “And you heard the rumors and seen the headlines that 30 or 40% of compute now is delayed this year. So keep your eye on power and compute.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 15 May 2026 20:31:59 +0000 Gerstner says the US is financing nearly a trillion dollars in annual AI capex privately, unlike China's gover https://minutesof.com/q/c48365dd-8117-4367-8cf3-593909495dd4/ https://minutesof.com/q/c48365dd-8117-4367-8cf3-593909495dd4/ “I think it's extraordinary that we're financing almost a trillion dollars of capex a year to build out the the entire AI infrastructure without any money from the US government.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 15 May 2026 20:31:59 +0000 Gerstner argues software stocks have reverted from premium valuations to market multiples when adjusted for st https://minutesof.com/q/faf2901e-7c97-4bf1-962f-69b5efbd3d5c/ https://minutesof.com/q/faf2901e-7c97-4bf1-962f-69b5efbd3d5c/ “Software stocks have reverted from a decade long superior multiple to the market to a market multiple.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 15 May 2026 20:31:59 +0000 Gerstner says the Mag Five will spend $800 billion in total capex this year. https://minutesof.com/q/71605f31-0146-4113-b115-1ebb3323eac8/ https://minutesof.com/q/71605f31-0146-4113-b115-1ebb3323eac8/ “This year, we're gonna have 800,000,000,000 in total CapEx by the Mag five. And the question was, would there be revenues to justify that?” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 05 May 2026 22:10:35 +0000 Gerstner cites hyperscaler revenue growth: Amazon 28%, Azure 39%, Google 63%, and Anthropic at historic rates. https://minutesof.com/q/e72f2fb5-947f-453c-8aaa-bd38d3706cd1/ https://minutesof.com/q/e72f2fb5-947f-453c-8aaa-bd38d3706cd1/ “28% revenue growth out of Amazon at tremendous scale or 39% for Azure, 63% for Google, extraordinary. And of course, Anthropic is adding revenues at rates we've never seen before.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 05 May 2026 22:10:35 +0000 Gerstner says memory trades at 5x earnings and NVIDIA at 13-14x fully taxed GAAP earnings. https://minutesof.com/q/5094e131-01d9-482c-a310-2f57fd8690b0/ https://minutesof.com/q/5094e131-01d9-482c-a310-2f57fd8690b0/ “Think about memory as an industry is only trading at five times earning. In the case of NVIDIA, trading at 13 or 14, fully taxed gap earnings.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 05 May 2026 22:10:35 +0000 Gerstner predicts NVIDIA will be the first $10 trillion company and still believes this in May 2026. https://minutesof.com/q/129e13e6-5fbe-4081-95ac-46eb801a1f02/ https://minutesof.com/q/129e13e6-5fbe-4081-95ac-46eb801a1f02/ “I've said before, I think NVIDIA will be the first $10,000,000,000,000 company. I you know, as I sit here, you know, in in May '26, I believe that to be true.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 05 May 2026 22:10:35 +0000 Gerstner notes hyperscalers grew collective revenue from $150 billion to $350 billion in just eight quarters. https://minutesof.com/q/3bca3627-39ad-451a-b22f-91c71ec6186e/ https://minutesof.com/q/3bca3627-39ad-451a-b22f-91c71ec6186e/ “Let me just give you a statistic. It's just eight quarters ago that collectively they were doing a $150,000,000,000 in revenue. Now they're doing $350,000,000,000 in revenue.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 05 May 2026 22:10:35 +0000 Gerstner announces Invest America accounts launching July 4th with automatic $1,000 for every newborn. https://minutesof.com/q/6932a0fe-80ca-401b-831a-19c1f21ad742/ https://minutesof.com/q/6932a0fe-80ca-401b-831a-19c1f21ad742/ “Starting in, on July 4, just sixty days from today, every child forevermore born in America will start off with an investment account at birth, automatic, stapled to their Social Security with a thousand dollars in the S and P 500.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 05 May 2026 22:10:35 +0000 Gerstner says 40 million kids are eligible for Trump accounts with $250 minimum or $1,000 under age two. https://minutesof.com/q/9b990a54-c24b-4320-9a45-f9b7ec4ae6dc/ https://minutesof.com/q/9b990a54-c24b-4320-9a45-f9b7ec4ae6dc/ “There are 40,000,000 kids in this country eligible today to go sign up at trumpaccounts.gov. They get at least $250.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 05 May 2026 22:10:35 +0000 Gerstner says 80% of Altimeter's capital is in memory, logic, and compute companies like Nvidia, SK Hynix, and https://minutesof.com/q/0a13c4a1-fadd-4bf8-9861-e3eecd9424c7/ https://minutesof.com/q/0a13c4a1-fadd-4bf8-9861-e3eecd9424c7/ “80% of our capital has been in memory and logic and compute, you know, companies like Nvidia, companies like SK Hynix, companies like CoreWeave, etcetera. And so that's consumed a lot of capital.” — CNBC Television Mon, 04 May 2026 19:16:21 +0000 Gerstner notes memory companies trade at 5x fully taxed earnings and Samsung will profit more than Google this https://minutesof.com/q/295ddc25-3844-40e9-ad8b-e31f81299114/ https://minutesof.com/q/295ddc25-3844-40e9-ad8b-e31f81299114/ “They're they're trading at five x fully taxed earnings. Samsung's gonna do more in profits this year than Google.” — CNBC Television Mon, 04 May 2026 19:16:21 +0000 Gerstner notes Nvidia at $195 trades lower than six months ago at 13-14x earnings. https://minutesof.com/q/66ef6e45-a60f-423f-b1bd-1b71ff6bf27b/ https://minutesof.com/q/66ef6e45-a60f-423f-b1bd-1b71ff6bf27b/ “At a $195, Nvidia is trading lower than it was six months ago. So it's hard to say at 13 or 14 times” — CNBC Television Mon, 04 May 2026 19:16:21 +0000 Gerstner asserts Nvidia is terribly under-owned and undervalued, and Altimeter is happy to hold it. https://minutesof.com/q/35da5df9-c184-4c63-b775-aeb64dac0cb2/ https://minutesof.com/q/35da5df9-c184-4c63-b775-aeb64dac0cb2/ “I think NVIDIA is terribly, under owned. I think it's terribly, undervalued today, and so we're happy to sit in that and to own it.” — CNBC Television Mon, 04 May 2026 19:16:21 +0000 Gerstner warns $120 oil will hurt markets if Iran situation isn't resolved in three to four months. https://minutesof.com/q/c877114b-169f-4fcc-a18d-357bee75fea8/ https://minutesof.com/q/c877114b-169f-4fcc-a18d-357bee75fea8/ “A $120 oil will take its toll on the market if we don't solve that over the course of the next three to four months.” — CNBC Television Mon, 04 May 2026 19:16:21 +0000 Gerstner mentions ChatGPT 5.5 trained on Blackwell chips and Vera Rubin rolling out later this year. https://minutesof.com/q/61aef15b-e837-4b5b-a22d-198c91f9157c/ https://minutesof.com/q/61aef15b-e837-4b5b-a22d-198c91f9157c/ “On new Blackwell chips. We got Vera Rubin rolling out later this year. Notwithstanding all of the noise in the market,” — CNBC Television Mon, 04 May 2026 19:16:21 +0000 Gerstner cites a trillion dollars in Nvidia orders over the next six to eight quarters. https://minutesof.com/q/620dd345-6d0e-430c-be37-13bf3dbb5607/ https://minutesof.com/q/620dd345-6d0e-430c-be37-13bf3dbb5607/ “But I think if you just look at the numbers, a trillion dollars over the course of the next, you know, six to eight quarters, I think speaks for itself.” — CNBC Television Mon, 04 May 2026 19:16:21 +0000 Gerstner says AI will be bigger than the Internet, the fourth super cycle he has lived through. https://minutesof.com/q/9592cbe3-238d-4085-a82d-e3bc436c5f4a/ https://minutesof.com/q/9592cbe3-238d-4085-a82d-e3bc436c5f4a/ “I've lived through four, the Internet, cloud computing, mobile computing, and now we're entering the age of AI. It will be bigger than the Internet itself.” — Fox Business Mon, 02 Mar 2026 03:00:34 +0000 Gerstner says Altimeter's investment thesis for two years has been correlation to intelligence improvements. https://minutesof.com/q/a30a1c29-6df9-4dd5-a542-e00e3ff8c561/ https://minutesof.com/q/a30a1c29-6df9-4dd5-a542-e00e3ff8c561/ “The overarching theme now for two years at Altimeter is we wanna be positively correlated to improvements in intelligence.” — Fox Business Mon, 02 Mar 2026 03:00:34 +0000 Gerstner explains software stocks fall before earnings miss due to higher discount rates and lower terminal va https://minutesof.com/q/28ecaca1-f18f-411c-9884-1412a939497d/ https://minutesof.com/q/28ecaca1-f18f-411c-9884-1412a939497d/ “We can't forecast as well. Therefore, the terminal value must be lower. The discount rate is higher and the multiple comes down. So the stocks come down well before they start missing.” — Fox Business Mon, 02 Mar 2026 03:00:34 +0000 Gerstner says the big five will spend $650-700 billion on AI and are still token constrained with unfulfilled https://minutesof.com/q/237fdde5-1f55-4578-8cb5-642191f173bd/ https://minutesof.com/q/237fdde5-1f55-4578-8cb5-642191f173bd/ “650,000,000,000 to 700,000,000,000 of spend out of the big five companies in The US, and they say they're still token constrained.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 10 Feb 2026 21:40:23 +0000 Gerstner compares the next three years of AI investment to building the interstate highway system, all private https://minutesof.com/q/edcca4b7-9900-4e93-957b-7b9a8995331d/ https://minutesof.com/q/edcca4b7-9900-4e93-957b-7b9a8995331d/ “I think for the next three years, this is like building the interstate highway system. Right? This is significant. It's important to The United States Of America, by the way.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 10 Feb 2026 21:40:23 +0000 Gerstner explains software stocks fell because AI uncertainty reduced visibility, lowering multiples from 35x https://minutesof.com/q/75766c5d-d8e2-491b-94ff-55a3e5aaff61/ https://minutesof.com/q/75766c5d-d8e2-491b-94ff-55a3e5aaff61/ “Give them 35 times free cash flow because I had that level of predictability. It was like a government bond. It was a sure thing.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 10 Feb 2026 21:40:23 +0000 Gerstner says he wants his personal and fund net worth levered to AI, with NVIDIA as largest public position. https://minutesof.com/q/f425219d-ac2c-48be-af41-e5b0df85e985/ https://minutesof.com/q/f425219d-ac2c-48be-af41-e5b0df85e985/ “I want my personal net worth. I want my funds net worth levered against AI because all human progress is gonna be derived from machines helping humans think and augment human thinking.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 10 Feb 2026 21:40:23 +0000 Gerstner says Chinese AI stack including DeepSeek and other models is making disturbing inroads in Middle East https://minutesof.com/q/0747bd60-bb55-46d1-98e7-3331e41198ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/0747bd60-bb55-46d1-98e7-3331e41198ed/ “No. For sure. And in fact, I I hear disturbing things all the time about the Chinese stack making great inroads in The Middle East and in the Southern Hemisphere, etcetera, because, frankly, they're working really quickly to put their chips and their models, their open source models, Deepsea, Kimi k two, Quinn, etcetera, and exporting those to the world.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 10 Feb 2026 21:40:23 +0000 The president said last week, twenty years from now, there will be a 100,000,000 kids and families that have 3 https://minutesof.com/q/1e1b84ab-705a-4b5f-8136-c3d8c6ff6f12/ https://minutesof.com/q/1e1b84ab-705a-4b5f-8136-c3d8c6ff6f12/ “The president said last week, twenty years from now, there will be a 100,000,000 kids and families that have 3 to 4,000,000,000,000 in wealth that would have otherwise had zero because they start off with a thousand dollars, and we add money to those accounts.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 10 Feb 2026 21:40:23 +0000 Gerstner explains software stocks previously traded at 35x free cash flow due to bond-like predictability. https://minutesof.com/q/a868d3c3-ab1c-4b55-9cbd-71646ac2beb2/ https://minutesof.com/q/a868d3c3-ab1c-4b55-9cbd-71646ac2beb2/ “Give them 35 times free cash flow because I had that level of predictability. It was like a government bond.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:47:27 +0000 Gerstner says AI uncertainty has rationally caused investors to discount future cash flows and terminal values https://minutesof.com/q/b1727be3-768a-4412-8f88-ef2843728845/ https://minutesof.com/q/b1727be3-768a-4412-8f88-ef2843728845/ “I can't see as far into the future, so I'm gonna pay less for the terminal value. I'm gonna pay less for those future free cash flows.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:47:27 +0000 Gerstner says software valuations only recover when companies prove they are AI beneficiaries through revenue https://minutesof.com/q/182f0ca9-fc80-49b2-876b-62df8150996f/ https://minutesof.com/q/182f0ca9-fc80-49b2-876b-62df8150996f/ “So the only way that reverses, Scott, is those companies have to accelerate their core revenues and show that they are beneficiaries of AI.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:47:27 +0000 Gerstner cites Databricks growing over 60% as example of companies accelerating because AI relies on them. https://minutesof.com/q/0bcee712-5036-472b-8bba-847722a07e36/ https://minutesof.com/q/0bcee712-5036-472b-8bba-847722a07e36/ “I think this quarter, they're they grew over 60%. Snowflake, Clickhouse, these are companies that are accelerating their core revenues because AI relies on them.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:47:27 +0000 Gerstner describes exponential AI change creating fog of war where investors cannot predict 35 years of cash f https://minutesof.com/q/d92352fb-403c-4898-93c3-57c399f3774a/ https://minutesof.com/q/d92352fb-403c-4898-93c3-57c399f3774a/ “Fog of war. I can't predict thirty five years into the future of those free cash flows, so I have to pull it in a little bit.” — Altimeter Capital Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:47:27 +0000 Gerstner announces that starting July 4, 2026, every child born will receive a thousand-dollar investment acco https://minutesof.com/q/9a4e7ce4-f940-46ce-97e7-a19e46e99b5a/ https://minutesof.com/q/9a4e7ce4-f940-46ce-97e7-a19e46e99b5a/ “In 2026, this year on July 4, every child born forevermore, think about that, forevermore. This is the magnitude of Social Security.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:01:23 +0000 Gerstner projects that adding $750 yearly to the initial $1,000 grows to $1 million by age 55. https://minutesof.com/q/c3f6b06c-394d-4a26-894d-ebd4531f5a6f/ https://minutesof.com/q/c3f6b06c-394d-4a26-894d-ebd4531f5a6f/ “If you start with a thousand bucks and add just $750 a year, it's 50,000 at 18, it's 200,000 at age 30, and it's a million dollars at age 55.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:01:23 +0000 Gerstner says the major tech companies will spend over $500 billion on AI capex this year. https://minutesof.com/q/26edcdcf-0bbd-4dc4-97c7-cfa8795a5de4/ https://minutesof.com/q/26edcdcf-0bbd-4dc4-97c7-cfa8795a5de4/ “The spending, the CapEx from that group alone is gonna be over $500,000,000,000 this year.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:01:23 +0000 Gerstner contrasts today's GPU utilization with 2000 when only 7% of fiber was utilized. https://minutesof.com/q/548fba38-3666-49ec-a5fa-dfd869fc6448/ https://minutesof.com/q/548fba38-3666-49ec-a5fa-dfd869fc6448/ “Remember back in 2000, we talked a lot about dark fiber. Only 7% of the fiber going into the ground in the year 2000 was being utilized. 7%.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:01:23 +0000 Gerstner reports OpenAI added one billion dollars in API revenue in the last thirty days. https://minutesof.com/q/3e677c0c-8957-4680-9959-8b6af44aa78d/ https://minutesof.com/q/3e677c0c-8957-4680-9959-8b6af44aa78d/ “OpenAI just announced last in the last few days that they've added $1,000,000,000 of API revenue in the last thirty days.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:01:23 +0000 Gerstner says OpenAI has over $40 billion cash and could raise another $70-100 billion for a fortress balance https://minutesof.com/q/40389807-c542-438d-b0cd-f559e708cfaf/ https://minutesof.com/q/40389807-c542-438d-b0cd-f559e708cfaf/ “If these reports are true and they're gonna raise another 70 to 100,000,000,000, they would have over a 100,000,000,000 of cash on their balance sheet.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:01:23 +0000 Gerstner notes OpenAI has not built data centers while Microsoft, Oracle, CoreWeave, and SoftBank are building https://minutesof.com/q/4a47bf51-98b8-4446-9c8e-eda99762df39/ https://minutesof.com/q/4a47bf51-98b8-4446-9c8e-eda99762df39/ “I haven't heard them break ground on any data center. I hear Microsoft building data centers, Oracle building data centers, CoreWeb building data centers, SoftBank building data centers.” — Altimeter Capital Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:01:23 +0000 Gerstner says AI capex jumped from $150B in 2023 to over $500B this year in committed purchase orders. https://minutesof.com/q/6c4c2aab-18b6-4975-81b9-68235e3e8fba/ https://minutesof.com/q/6c4c2aab-18b6-4975-81b9-68235e3e8fba/ “In 2023, these companies spent $150,000,000,000 on capex building out data centers. This year, over 500,000,000,000. That's not speculative. That is purchase orders. Those are buildings.” — Altimeter Capital Wed, 07 Jan 2026 22:13:03 +0000 Gerstner predicts Google's TPU will not match NVIDIA Rubin's token efficiency despite advantages. https://minutesof.com/q/0af5a587-16c0-4b3a-8c44-88ed54311784/ https://minutesof.com/q/0af5a587-16c0-4b3a-8c44-88ed54311784/ “First, Google is a massive consumer of NVIDIA GPUs, Right? Not only for its own workloads, but also the workloads, you know, in Google Cloud.” — Altimeter Capital Wed, 07 Jan 2026 22:13:03 +0000 Gerstner predicts Anthropic and OpenAI will go public within twelve to eighteen months. https://minutesof.com/q/e1926a21-4a7d-4ace-9f80-c7d09ca77f45/ https://minutesof.com/q/e1926a21-4a7d-4ace-9f80-c7d09ca77f45/ “Over the course of the next twelve to eighteen months, both Anthropic and OpenAI will come public would be my guess.” — Altimeter Capital Wed, 07 Jan 2026 22:13:03 +0000 Gerstner cites 5x inference and 3.5x training performance improvements on NVIDIA Rubin chips. https://minutesof.com/q/6f93f4d3-32b3-4a01-894a-5b1ef572640b/ https://minutesof.com/q/6f93f4d3-32b3-4a01-894a-5b1ef572640b/ “He just improved his inference performance by five x, not even including Grok, which I think will give him, you know, another huge boost.” — Altimeter Capital Wed, 07 Jan 2026 22:13:03 +0000 Gerstner says software multiples fell from 17x forward revenue in 2021 to 4.2x today, a generational low. https://minutesof.com/q/a9ba3b83-6851-49ef-baed-4447f23000bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/a9ba3b83-6851-49ef-baed-4447f23000bc/ “Look at that peak in 2021. Right? We're almost 17 times forward revenue. Today, we're at at about 4.2 times. So we're at a generational low in terms of the the multiple for software.” — Altimeter Capital Wed, 07 Jan 2026 22:13:03 +0000 Gerstner says software multiples fell from 17x forward revenue in 2021 to 4.2x today, a generational low. https://minutesof.com/q/8e49e679-5d5f-426c-a50f-3c228c0702cc/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e49e679-5d5f-426c-a50f-3c228c0702cc/ “We're almost 17 times forward revenue. Today, we're at at about 4.2 times. So we're at a generational low in terms of the the multiple for software.” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jan 2026 18:27:14 +0000 Gerstner describes the market belief that AI tools can build CRM systems in an hour, threatening traditional s https://minutesof.com/q/7020f7ae-9abe-4f37-a924-fba417a3573c/ https://minutesof.com/q/7020f7ae-9abe-4f37-a924-fba417a3573c/ “I could tell it what I want, And I can literally have it build a customer relationship management system for my business in about an hour.” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jan 2026 18:27:14 +0000 Gerstner says Databricks and Snowflake are accelerating because they provide the data substrate for agentic AI https://minutesof.com/q/28161199-1201-4d20-bcda-aa3078c6c6e7/ https://minutesof.com/q/28161199-1201-4d20-bcda-aa3078c6c6e7/ “But there are other companies that we own and love, like Databricks and Snowflake, that are actually accelerating. Why are they accelerating? They are the data substrate upon which enterprises are building agentic solutions.” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jan 2026 18:27:14 +0000 Gerstner argues the market wrongly treats all software equally and expects meaningfully accelerating revenues https://minutesof.com/q/583c4e53-58a6-4ec3-baa9-7fad3ea5234b/ https://minutesof.com/q/583c4e53-58a6-4ec3-baa9-7fad3ea5234b/ “And so we'll see. These guys have to deliver. And so I expect we're gonna see meaningfully accelerating revenues out of those companies,” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jan 2026 18:27:14 +0000 Gerstner says now is the time to find the 10% of beaten-down software companies that will benefit from AI. https://minutesof.com/q/0047d296-7de1-4260-bf65-8cefb5be9242/ https://minutesof.com/q/0047d296-7de1-4260-bf65-8cefb5be9242/ “90% of the companies that are down deserve to be down. Find the 10 that got thrown out with the bathwater. Find the 10%, right, that are going to benefit from AI.” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jan 2026 18:27:14 +0000 Gerstner predicts 60 million Invest America accounts will be created by June, calling it a massive change. https://minutesof.com/q/d6aff6b3-1a8c-4fa5-81c3-8c9e82d79e16/ https://minutesof.com/q/d6aff6b3-1a8c-4fa5-81c3-8c9e82d79e16/ “60,000,000 accounts created this year by June. Invest America Trump accounts are gonna change the game. It's gonna be a massive change for this country.” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jan 2026 18:27:14 +0000 Gerstner notes NVIDIA consensus is 65% earnings growth in 2025 and 30% in 2027 at 25x multiple. https://minutesof.com/q/3344c550-e75a-4713-842b-9dc7cc319db4/ https://minutesof.com/q/3344c550-e75a-4713-842b-9dc7cc319db4/ “The consensus estimate this year, I think, is that they're gonna grow earnings about 65%, maybe 30% in 2027. You said it's an earnings driven market, so they don't need to expand multiple.” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jan 2026 18:25:41 +0000 Gerstner reduced exposure to tiny by April 2024 due to fears about the Navarro nuclear option on tariffs. https://minutesof.com/q/a424b6b3-be4e-4e33-881e-86d109c31028/ https://minutesof.com/q/a424b6b3-be4e-4e33-881e-86d109c31028/ “By April, we were tiny in terms of our overall exposure to the market because of our fears about I came on this program and talked about, you know, the Navarro nuclear option around tariffs.” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jan 2026 18:25:41 +0000 In 2023, these companies spent $150,000,000,000 on capex building out data centers. This year, over 500,000,00 https://minutesof.com/q/d355f2bc-75c1-45af-97c8-e4d4cbc914b2/ https://minutesof.com/q/d355f2bc-75c1-45af-97c8-e4d4cbc914b2/ “In 2023, these companies spent $150,000,000,000 on capex building out data centers. This year, over 500,000,000,000. Though, that's not speculative. That is purchase orders. Those are buildings. That's power.” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jan 2026 18:25:41 +0000 Gerstner says CoreWeave stands alone among Neo Clouds due to its performance and strategic importance to NVIDI https://minutesof.com/q/2a2e9ddc-cb1a-49a2-bcc6-300639d6ff88/ https://minutesof.com/q/2a2e9ddc-cb1a-49a2-bcc6-300639d6ff88/ “We think CoreWeave stands alone, in terms of its performance, the software that is built on top of the cloud, its execution capability, its strategic importance to NVIDIA in terms of deploying Rubin, etcetera.” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jan 2026 18:25:41 +0000 Gerstner says $250 billion on NVIDIA implies $500 billion total AI CapEx spending. https://minutesof.com/q/a92236da-9042-40b4-8a83-468edac2a60e/ https://minutesof.com/q/a92236da-9042-40b4-8a83-468edac2a60e/ “one of the things that keeps investors like me up in the nights is a 250,000,000,000 being spent on NVIDIA on on the semi side of things.” — BG2 Pod Tue, 23 Dec 2025 23:00:00 +0000 Gerstner argues AI must generate $1 trillion revenue to justify current CapEx versus $400 billion for all soft https://minutesof.com/q/6e401eb5-6c61-41ac-bac8-c4109c5148f6/ https://minutesof.com/q/6e401eb5-6c61-41ac-bac8-c4109c5148f6/ “then you've gotta earn about a trillion dollars of AI revenue for all of this CapEx to be worth it.” — BG2 Pod Tue, 23 Dec 2025 23:00:00 +0000 Gerstner says 50 million of 65 million kids under 18 would never own a compounding account without this progra https://minutesof.com/q/443ec3b2-6c8e-4b4b-a0a9-8f5b79f5e7d9/ https://minutesof.com/q/443ec3b2-6c8e-4b4b-a0a9-8f5b79f5e7d9/ “Under the age of 18, that's 65,000,000 kids. And of those 65,000,000, 50,000,000 would never own an account that compounds.” — Prof G Markets Thu, 04 Dec 2025 14:00:48 +0000 Gerstner projects $1,000 with $750 annual additions grows to $50,000 at 18 and $1 million by age 55. https://minutesof.com/q/476ca62e-7ea9-4115-b11e-65a7c6cbfa7d/ https://minutesof.com/q/476ca62e-7ea9-4115-b11e-65a7c6cbfa7d/ “if they start with $1,000, and an employer or mom and dad or a philanthropist adds just $750 a year, that's $50,000 at the age of 18.” — Prof G Markets Thu, 04 Dec 2025 14:00:48 +0000 Gerstner notes Dell's $6.25 billion contribution targets zip codes with average incomes under $150,000. https://minutesof.com/q/2b858ff2-4727-4f45-b591-a5e8d4bfa311/ https://minutesof.com/q/2b858ff2-4727-4f45-b591-a5e8d4bfa311/ “A key component of their announcement, Ed, was that their 6,250,000,000 is only going to families that live in zip codes where the average income is less than $150,000” — Prof G Markets Thu, 04 Dec 2025 14:00:48 +0000 Gerstner announces Texas will add $1,000 to every child's account born in the state. https://minutesof.com/q/39586c20-3947-40a9-89b9-22fb60e95bab/ https://minutesof.com/q/39586c20-3947-40a9-89b9-22fb60e95bab/ “The state of Texas just announced today, they're going to add $1,000 to every account in the state of Texas, all the kids born in the state of Texas.” — Prof G Markets Thu, 04 Dec 2025 14:00:48 +0000 Gerstner asserts less than half of people under 40 believe in capitalism. https://minutesof.com/q/2d3530cc-cd1c-49a0-8714-940b604b1fd8/ https://minutesof.com/q/2d3530cc-cd1c-49a0-8714-940b604b1fd8/ “There's a reason less than half of people under the age of 40 believe in capitalism, Ed.” — Prof G Markets Thu, 04 Dec 2025 14:00:48 +0000 Gerstner argues going from zero to something is a bigger move than going from one to five. https://minutesof.com/q/3d9e183d-1dda-4fdc-a506-b15fb2eafed0/ https://minutesof.com/q/3d9e183d-1dda-4fdc-a506-b15fb2eafed0/ “But going from nothing to something. Yes. Going from zero and the prospect of zero your whole life to one, that is a far bigger move than going from one to five.” — Prof G Markets Thu, 04 Dec 2025 14:00:48 +0000 Gerstner notes NVIDIA added almost $200 billion of revenue in the last three years. https://minutesof.com/q/6d4a663f-9ee4-437d-8f84-e6793465fa5d/ https://minutesof.com/q/6d4a663f-9ee4-437d-8f84-e6793465fa5d/ “You know, you've seen NVIDIA add almost $200,000,000,000 of revenue in the last three years. Yeah. Truly extraordinary.” — CNBC Television Tue, 02 Dec 2025 14:15:59 +0000 Gerstner argues NVIDIA at 23-24x forward earnings and Mag Seven at 25-30x are not bubble valuations. https://minutesof.com/q/865094af-0736-4bbd-97cb-d1cab3cd4010/ https://minutesof.com/q/865094af-0736-4bbd-97cb-d1cab3cd4010/ “That is not the stuff that bubbles are made of. Right? I think the rest of the mag seven all trades somewhere between twenty five and thirty times, maybe met is at 21 times earnings.” — CNBC Television Tue, 02 Dec 2025 14:15:59 +0000 Gerstner reveals Altimeter invested in NVIDIA in December 2022, up 10x as revenue grew from $30B to over $200B https://minutesof.com/q/9030a5bb-a787-4fea-a498-d2349d4cb62e/ https://minutesof.com/q/9030a5bb-a787-4fea-a498-d2349d4cb62e/ “The stock's up over ten ten times. 10 x over that period of time as the revenue went from roughly $30,000,000,000 a year to over $200,000,000,000 a year.” — CNBC Television Tue, 02 Dec 2025 14:15:59 +0000 Gerstner says NVIDIA indicated a $100 billion run rate expected by end of next year. https://minutesof.com/q/d6a087d2-b073-4284-9362-983a835fec11/ https://minutesof.com/q/d6a087d2-b073-4284-9362-983a835fec11/ “And they just told us that we should expect a run rate by the end of next year of a $100,000,000,000.” — CNBC Television Tue, 02 Dec 2025 14:15:59 +0000 Gerstner compares Bitcoin down 10% to gold up 50-60%, calling one a risk asset and one not. https://minutesof.com/q/d149ca38-e39e-4108-8e1c-1f6a0dedfd1d/ https://minutesof.com/q/d149ca38-e39e-4108-8e1c-1f6a0dedfd1d/ “Bitcoin this year is down 10%. Gold is up 50 or 60%. I hope we can dispel the myth. Right? One is a risk asset and one is not.” — CNBC Television Tue, 02 Dec 2025 14:15:59 +0000 Gerstner reports Altman disclosed OpenAI is doing more than $13 billion in revenue. https://minutesof.com/q/d5d472b6-2f76-4bc6-a668-0ee8bc526ece/ https://minutesof.com/q/d5d472b6-2f76-4bc6-a668-0ee8bc526ece/ “Sam came on the podcast. He was a little bit feisty. And he said, listen. We're doing more than 13,000,000,000 in revenue.” — CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 22:30:01 +0000 Gerstner notes Altman tweeted OpenAI will exit the year at $20 billion in revenue. https://minutesof.com/q/6ffe6ce0-73c8-48d0-a15d-2cccc7372119/ https://minutesof.com/q/6ffe6ce0-73c8-48d0-a15d-2cccc7372119/ “And he just said in his tweet that they're gonna exit the year at $20,000,000,000 in revenue.” — CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 22:30:01 +0000 Gerstner reports Altman expects OpenAI to exceed $100 billion in revenue in 2027 or 2028. https://minutesof.com/q/ada2afaf-1860-4728-ad73-de827b2bb568/ https://minutesof.com/q/ada2afaf-1860-4728-ad73-de827b2bb568/ “What Sam said multiple times on the pod and since is that he expects that they'll do over 100,000,000,000 in revenues in twenty seven or '28.” — CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 22:30:01 +0000 Gerstner argues that $100-200 billion in revenue by 2028-29 makes the capex spend responsible. https://minutesof.com/q/321829bd-6978-421e-be99-3f33e66f14c4/ https://minutesof.com/q/321829bd-6978-421e-be99-3f33e66f14c4/ “Now if they're doing a 100 to 200,000,000,000 in revenue in 2829, then now we're in the zone of responsible.” — CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 22:30:01 +0000 And if they're doing that and you spread the CapEx out, so we talked about 1,400,000,000,000, half of that's g https://minutesof.com/q/62a700d7-3c7b-4795-91fd-596303f72565/ https://minutesof.com/q/62a700d7-3c7b-4795-91fd-596303f72565/ “And if they're doing that and you spread the CapEx out, so we talked about 1,400,000,000,000, half of that's gonna be borne by their partners.” — CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 17:51:39 +0000 Gerstner argues $100-200B annual capex is responsible if OpenAI hits $100-200B revenue in 2028-29. https://minutesof.com/q/2040160c-48c9-44cd-91a1-2e262a1544e9/ https://minutesof.com/q/2040160c-48c9-44cd-91a1-2e262a1544e9/ “Now if they're doing a 100 to 200,000,000,000 in revenue in 2829, then now we're in the zone of responsible.” — CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 17:51:39 +0000 Gerstner warns that if AI revenues don't materialize, the public market AI trade will have a problem beyond NV https://minutesof.com/q/fa69c424-22a0-479f-8a56-73a54a82c6fe/ https://minutesof.com/q/fa69c424-22a0-479f-8a56-73a54a82c6fe/ “The market the public market does not have a way to play pure AI outside of NVIDIA. It is going to be watching.” — CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 17:51:39 +0000 Gerstner compares AI buildout to Manhattan Project, calling it both national and economic security imperative https://minutesof.com/q/2a8fac41-0bb5-4155-9499-750763a34c14/ https://minutesof.com/q/2a8fac41-0bb5-4155-9499-750763a34c14/ “We are in a global AI race with China. This is like the Manhattan Project. We have to build out compute. It it's a it's not only a national security imperative.” — CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 17:51:39 +0000 Gerstner states Microsoft has invested $13-14 billion in OpenAI for 27% ownership on a fully diluted basis. https://minutesof.com/q/40b18130-c136-4666-8e0e-e042e6b415b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/40b18130-c136-4666-8e0e-e042e6b415b1/ “Microsoft started investing in 2019, has invested in the ballpark of $1,314,000,000,000 dollars into OpenAI. And for that, you get 27% of the business ownership in the business on a fully diluted basis.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 31 Oct 2025 23:11:44 +0000 Gerstner notes OpenAI's nonprofit is capitalized with $130 billion in stock, making it one of the world's larg https://minutesof.com/q/eaa234e8-aefe-4242-9a78-7876610cda5a/ https://minutesof.com/q/eaa234e8-aefe-4242-9a78-7876610cda5a/ “The nonprofit is already capitalized with a $130,000,000,000, a $130,000,000,000 of OpenAI stock. It's one of the largest in the world out of the gates. It could end up being much, much larger.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 31 Oct 2025 23:11:44 +0000 Gerstner contrasts OpenAI's $13 billion revenue with its $1.4 trillion compute commitment over four to five ye https://minutesof.com/q/1a8f6d20-9f02-4359-896d-f54abf9f4e5e/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a8f6d20-9f02-4359-896d-f54abf9f4e5e/ “OpenAI's revenues are still a reported $13,000,000,000 in 2025. And Sam, on your live stream this week, you talked about this massive commitment to compute, right? 1,400,000,000,000 over the next four or five years” — BG2 Pod Fri, 31 Oct 2025 23:11:44 +0000 Gerstner breaks down OpenAI's compute commitments: $500 million to Nvidia, $300 million to AMD and Oracle, $25 https://minutesof.com/q/91ec54df-26d4-4ba7-89a3-5561b97b84dd/ https://minutesof.com/q/91ec54df-26d4-4ba7-89a3-5561b97b84dd/ “with, you know, big commitments, 500,000,000 to Nvidia, 300,000,000 to AMD and Oracle, $250,000,000,000 to Azure.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 31 Oct 2025 23:11:44 +0000 Gerstner calculates OpenAI could IPO at a trillion dollar valuation at 10x $100 billion revenue, below Faceboo https://minutesof.com/q/13d8c70e-131b-442f-abd6-68b88af7cc60/ https://minutesof.com/q/13d8c70e-131b-442f-abd6-68b88af7cc60/ “if you guys went public at 10 times 100,000,000,000 in revenue, right, which would be I think a lower multiple than Facebook went public at, a lower multiple than a lot of other big consumer companies went public at, That would put you at a trillion dollars.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 31 Oct 2025 23:11:44 +0000 Gerstner cites Microsoft's $400 billion in remaining performance obligations as booked business that continues https://minutesof.com/q/673f6704-1ccd-4ba3-becc-86b17ed47c27/ https://minutesof.com/q/673f6704-1ccd-4ba3-becc-86b17ed47c27/ “you talked about 400,000,000,000 it's an incredible number, of remaining performance obligations last night. You said that, you know, that's your booked business today. It'll surely go up tomorrow as sales continue to come in.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 31 Oct 2025 23:11:44 +0000 Tech companies are investing over the course of the next four or five years, it's about 10 times the size of t https://minutesof.com/q/01ffca9f-8e11-4998-80d2-adc9447c7130/ https://minutesof.com/q/01ffca9f-8e11-4998-80d2-adc9447c7130/ “Tech companies are investing over the course of the next four or five years, it's about 10 times the size of the Manhattan Project on an inflation adjusted or GDP adjusted basis.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 31 Oct 2025 23:11:44 +0000 Gerstner argues the AI phase shift is as big as the internet transformation. https://minutesof.com/q/2e67885f-bccb-4681-b79a-5907f5de92ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/2e67885f-bccb-4681-b79a-5907f5de92ae/ “is the phase shift associated with AI? Is the transformation of all computing with now computer assisted intelligence, is it as big as the Internet?” — CNBC Television Wed, 15 Oct 2025 12:48:34 +0000 Gerstner notes NVIDIA dropped to $92 on tariffs but has recovered to $180. https://minutesof.com/q/b0737eda-47d6-4150-a627-fe536a0c84a8/ https://minutesof.com/q/b0737eda-47d6-4150-a627-fe536a0c84a8/ “Remember the deep sea moment? Stock stock was down 25%. And then on the tariff moment, the stock got down to $92 a share. It's at a 180 today.” — CNBC Television Wed, 15 Oct 2025 12:48:34 +0000 Gerstner says over a thousand billion-dollar-plus companies in Silicon Valley are trying to raise capital and https://minutesof.com/q/7ba5e596-8d06-4fd7-8dfd-0b2dd71427fa/ https://minutesof.com/q/7ba5e596-8d06-4fd7-8dfd-0b2dd71427fa/ “There are over a thousand of those in Silicon Valley, over a billion dollars that are trying to raise capital right now.” — CNBC Television Wed, 15 Oct 2025 12:48:34 +0000 Gerstner quotes AMD's Lisa Su calling this year two of a ten-year compute buildout supercycle. https://minutesof.com/q/af25e4b1-6f30-420a-9ce3-baefd8aa1c9e/ https://minutesof.com/q/af25e4b1-6f30-420a-9ce3-baefd8aa1c9e/ “Lisa said we're in year two of a ten year super cycle to build out the compute in America. If you're not on the AI wave, then you're not gonna participate in all that upside.” — CNBC Television Wed, 15 Oct 2025 12:48:34 +0000 Gerstner argues Google captured 98% of all upside in search despite having 20 competitors with good technology https://minutesof.com/q/acaf7a0e-0f58-40be-afa2-c7ec839eb85d/ https://minutesof.com/q/acaf7a0e-0f58-40be-afa2-c7ec839eb85d/ “20 competitors in search. They all have pretty good technologies, but Google consumed 98% of all the upside ever associated with search.” — CNBC Television Wed, 15 Oct 2025 12:48:34 +0000 Gerstner says ChatGPT has over 1.5 billion monthly users and 800 million weekly users with rising engagement. https://minutesof.com/q/a5b30ecc-73b8-4285-b1d0-c5c12221a97f/ https://minutesof.com/q/a5b30ecc-73b8-4285-b1d0-c5c12221a97f/ “I think chat GPT at one you know, well over a billion and a half monthly users, over 800,000,000 weekly users, and what most people don't talk about is the engagement. Engagement is going up.” — CNBC Television Wed, 15 Oct 2025 12:48:34 +0000 Gerstner warns red flags arise when chip makers fund single customers who then buy their chips with that capit https://minutesof.com/q/89c95380-882b-4ccf-a9fa-46080e93dc5b/ https://minutesof.com/q/89c95380-882b-4ccf-a9fa-46080e93dc5b/ “So there's no other potential customers, and the buyer would not have had the ability to buy it but for that capital. That to me raises big red flags.” — BG2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:40:02 +0000 Gerstner cites NVIDIA forecast of $200B revenue this year growing to $350B in five years, equating to specific https://minutesof.com/q/5c14627c-380b-49f1-af71-9587664517f5/ https://minutesof.com/q/5c14627c-380b-49f1-af71-9587664517f5/ “This is the NVIDIA sell side forecast. Okay? Forecast this year is for about 200,000,000,000 in revenues, growing to about 350,000,000,000 in revenues over the next five years.” — BG2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:40:02 +0000 Gerstner argues AI is scaling faster than the Internet did, citing his investments in Google and Meta. https://minutesof.com/q/ac7d417d-7577-44b2-9028-5284d3cf66b7/ https://minutesof.com/q/ac7d417d-7577-44b2-9028-5284d3cf66b7/ “ChatGPT became the verb and I would argue, maybe just So, you know, if we go to this slide right here, You know, AI is scaling way faster than the Internet did.” — Khosla Ventures Wed, 10 Sep 2025 22:51:48 +0000 Gerstner reports from Middle East that ChatGPT is the only consumer AI interface being used globally. https://minutesof.com/q/76d259e5-06a6-4186-9cb9-4a72745bc375/ https://minutesof.com/q/76d259e5-06a6-4186-9cb9-4a72745bc375/ “It's ChatGPT. It is the verb. It is the thing that Google had in 2003.” — Khosla Ventures Wed, 10 Sep 2025 22:51:48 +0000 Gerstner states Meta cut from 87,000 to 62,000 employees and reorganized around AI in February 2023. https://minutesof.com/q/5e9554e4-6f5a-43e6-bd46-d8bb03618654/ https://minutesof.com/q/5e9554e4-6f5a-43e6-bd46-d8bb03618654/ “They went from 87,000 employees to 62,000 employees in October of 'twenty two. They reorganized the company around AI starting in February of 'twenty three.” — Khosla Ventures Wed, 10 Sep 2025 22:51:48 +0000 Gerstner recounts Satya Nadella saying most applications are just interfaces on CRUD databases, which Benioff https://minutesof.com/q/a4dd377f-3935-433c-a57f-c01d37aeb182/ https://minutesof.com/q/a4dd377f-3935-433c-a57f-c01d37aeb182/ “When Satya came on our pod and he said that, you know, that at the end of the day, most applications are just consumer interfaces sitting on top of a CRUD database and, you know, Mark Benioff calls me and he's like, you know, that's not true.” — Khosla Ventures Wed, 10 Sep 2025 22:51:48 +0000 Gerstner tells some portfolio companies to shut down because AI opportunities are too big to miss. https://minutesof.com/q/a7aeb3ba-89c0-4acf-870e-17d45668a625/ https://minutesof.com/q/a7aeb3ba-89c0-4acf-870e-17d45668a625/ “And I'm sorry if not everybody agrees here, but I'm saying to some of my companies, this is too important a time. The opportunities are too big, right?” — Khosla Ventures Wed, 10 Sep 2025 22:51:48 +0000 Gerstner proposes giving every newborn a $1,000 S&P 500 account with corporate contributions from major compan https://minutesof.com/q/75a83da6-3773-4656-9be3-b8d3ac317a54/ https://minutesof.com/q/75a83da6-3773-4656-9be3-b8d3ac317a54/ “You start every child at birth, 3,700,000 kids with $1,000 investment account in the S and P 500. It's a four zero one ks from birth.” — Khosla Ventures Wed, 10 Sep 2025 22:51:48 +0000 Gerstner says his Invest America proposal was included in reconciliation bill after three-year fight. https://minutesof.com/q/8856e1ca-d0fd-4fc2-8307-ff46b0234d6f/ https://minutesof.com/q/8856e1ca-d0fd-4fc2-8307-ff46b0234d6f/ “I fought for this for three years. We just got it included in the reconciliation bill. The House lost their mind, some freedom caucusers and tried to rename it MAGA accounts.” — Khosla Ventures Wed, 10 Sep 2025 22:51:48 +0000 Gerstner says OpenAI and Anthropic deals are bigger than any tech IPO in five years. https://minutesof.com/q/644f09b1-f5d0-47cf-94a6-6d3526944ec7/ https://minutesof.com/q/644f09b1-f5d0-47cf-94a6-6d3526944ec7/ “I was just looking at these. I think these are bigger private IPOs than any public IPO done in the last five years in the tech market.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:39:23 +0000 Gerstner cites Jensen Huang saying half of world's AI researchers are in China and innovating. https://minutesof.com/q/4fb92128-e709-47f6-9e17-6527a7386ebd/ https://minutesof.com/q/4fb92128-e709-47f6-9e17-6527a7386ebd/ “Jensen Huang reminded us recently that 50% of the world's AI researchers are in China, and they're indeed innovating and not copying.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:39:23 +0000 Gerstner notes US is only 14% of China's exports and 3% of China's GDP. https://minutesof.com/q/118adf92-a072-4293-96f1-0f83d0f73bf2/ https://minutesof.com/q/118adf92-a072-4293-96f1-0f83d0f73bf2/ “The US only represents about 14% of China's exports. The US only represents about 3% of China's GDP.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:39:23 +0000 Gerstner warns believing China only wins through theft or subsidies prevents US self-improvement. https://minutesof.com/q/179b1911-b380-4dc6-a494-e4a711cce0f4/ https://minutesof.com/q/179b1911-b380-4dc6-a494-e4a711cce0f4/ “if we have this view that the only reason China's competitive or winning is because they're they're stealing or they're subsidized, I think what that view does is it allows us to dilute ourselves into believing we don't need to get better ourselves.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:39:23 +0000 Gerstner highlights US fission reactors cost four to five times more and none are being built. https://minutesof.com/q/72442d2b-51d8-44b7-959f-23d864647405/ https://minutesof.com/q/72442d2b-51d8-44b7-959f-23d864647405/ “Why does it cost us four to five times to build a fission reactor in this country? Why are we building no nuclear reactors in this country?” — BG2 Pod Thu, 28 Aug 2025 23:39:23 +0000 Gerstner is asked about Apple evaluating Perplexity and other LLM providers for potential partnerships. https://minutesof.com/q/8a8feb77-333f-4b9f-894d-4a971b0b4711/ https://minutesof.com/q/8a8feb77-333f-4b9f-894d-4a971b0b4711/ “I haven't heard your thoughts on the revelation that people inside Apple were kicking the tires at Perplexity and some of the other LLM providers and AI companies.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Aug 2025 17:35:29 +0000 Gerstner suggests Apple should acquire AI capabilities given their $2 trillion market cap and cash position. https://minutesof.com/q/7df9b330-da17-478a-bbf4-49b621827f37/ https://minutesof.com/q/7df9b330-da17-478a-bbf4-49b621827f37/ “What's your opinion on the build it versus buy it debate around Apple? I feel like for $2,025,000,000,000, they should just buy it, just given how much cash they have” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Aug 2025 17:35:29 +0000 Gerstner notes Jensen raised compute buildout forecast from $2 trillion to $3-4 trillion through decade end. https://minutesof.com/q/58f9ff51-18ce-48d6-97b3-28e16f14ea80/ https://minutesof.com/q/58f9ff51-18ce-48d6-97b3-28e16f14ea80/ “Jensen said, you know, when he was on our pod last year, he said, we think the build out between now and the end of the decade's $2,000,000,000,000 of total compute.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Aug 2025 17:12:24 +0000 Gerstner says Google's monthly token generation exploded 100x in a year, from 9 trillion to 980 trillion token https://minutesof.com/q/c5f66780-d7e1-4b21-9d13-444df206cd01/ https://minutesof.com/q/c5f66780-d7e1-4b21-9d13-444df206cd01/ “Today, it's 980,000,000,000,000 tokens. So from 9,000,000,000,000 to nine eighty, it's a 100 x increase in a year.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Aug 2025 17:12:24 +0000 Gerstner calculates 50% growth would bring NVIDIA to $300 billion datacenter revenue, about $8 per share. https://minutesof.com/q/3302a3bc-c63c-4b44-b281-26e8b2841b9f/ https://minutesof.com/q/3302a3bc-c63c-4b44-b281-26e8b2841b9f/ “So the consensus for next year is 250,000,000,000 of data center revenue. If they grow up 50%, that's gonna be closer to 300,000,000,000 or closer to $8 a share.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Aug 2025 17:12:24 +0000 Gerstner believes there's over 50% probability NVIDIA can sell Blackwell chips in China, a $50 billion market. https://minutesof.com/q/aee2b073-7d63-44ce-bd48-38a445a90dca/ https://minutesof.com/q/aee2b073-7d63-44ce-bd48-38a445a90dca/ “China is a $50,000,000,000 market for NVIDIA unto itself. So I believe that the probability they're gonna be able to sell chips China is north of 50%.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Aug 2025 17:12:24 +0000 Gerstner argues OpenAI's global expansion mirrors Google's early 2000s strategy of competing worldwide without https://minutesof.com/q/23e792a0-63b0-4083-a1ed-5dfa30a88bde/ https://minutesof.com/q/23e792a0-63b0-4083-a1ed-5dfa30a88bde/ “This is what Google did in the early two thousand. Right? And by the way, Google didn't have to go to Washington to get a permission or to get a license.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Aug 2025 17:12:24 +0000 Gerstner notes Alibaba's Qwen model has passed 400 million downloads under Apache 2.0 license. https://minutesof.com/q/61b701ab-5440-4bd6-b877-eb17aff4e766/ https://minutesof.com/q/61b701ab-5440-4bd6-b877-eb17aff4e766/ “Of course, that's released like these other models under the Apache 2.0 open source license, so very open, as Bill's talked about.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:11:15 +0000 Gerstner reports X.AI targets 50 million H100 equivalent units, requiring 4 million GPUs and 11 gigawatts. https://minutesof.com/q/c0b52752-79e9-4f45-919f-7a388d7cab11/ https://minutesof.com/q/c0b52752-79e9-4f45-919f-7a388d7cab11/ “If you look at this one out of Elon talking about the X dot AI goal is 50,000,000 in units of H100 equivalent.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:11:15 +0000 Gerstner says Anthropic raising $5B at $170B valuation on $5B revenue, unprecedented venture scale. https://minutesof.com/q/72b574bb-6c89-4f94-955c-823123abab46/ https://minutesof.com/q/72b574bb-6c89-4f94-955c-823123abab46/ “I think that Iconic is going to lead a $5,000,000,000 round into Anthropic at $170,000,000,000 In the case of Anthropic, it's, you know, 170,000,000,000 on rumored $5,000,000,000 in revenue.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:11:15 +0000 Gerstner argues consumer ownership, not hardware, determines value; Google dominated for twenty years this way https://minutesof.com/q/19ca1b64-10d8-4f63-902b-e2dac6fe1613/ https://minutesof.com/q/19ca1b64-10d8-4f63-902b-e2dac6fe1613/ “The battle for the consumer is ultimately where the value accrues, Sonny, not who runs, you know, what hardware.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:11:15 +0000 Gerstner predicts Trump will pursue the biggest-ever China deal, calling himself a deal junkie at AI summit. https://minutesof.com/q/af0f4d5d-23e3-4523-8f78-3dafffa49505/ https://minutesof.com/q/af0f4d5d-23e3-4523-8f78-3dafffa49505/ “He said at the AI summit last week, I'm a deal junkie. I like to do deals. You can't be the biggest deal maker in the world without doing a big deal with China.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:11:15 +0000 Gerstner forecasts major China deal after Trump visit planned for September through November timeframe. https://minutesof.com/q/15ff7e1b-6ed8-4f85-8995-66a07a8dbd66/ https://minutesof.com/q/15ff7e1b-6ed8-4f85-8995-66a07a8dbd66/ “They've invited the president to China. The president has suggested he's going to go to China the first week of September, sometime between September and November.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:11:15 +0000 Gerstner recounts Kevin Weil saying a trillion-dollar valuation would underwhelm him when joining OpenAI. https://minutesof.com/q/95735eb1-3b11-4a30-999c-801d98dfe784/ https://minutesof.com/q/95735eb1-3b11-4a30-999c-801d98dfe784/ “I remember when you joined OpenAI and I asked you the question, can OpenAI get to a trillion dollars, right in total value?” — BG2 Pod Sat, 21 Jun 2025 15:51:43 +0000 Gerstner characterizes OpenAI as shifting from regulatory advocacy to launching open source models. https://minutesof.com/q/bd11649a-86e7-43ae-92c0-deaa8847c90e/ https://minutesof.com/q/bd11649a-86e7-43ae-92c0-deaa8847c90e/ “And now I think it's like more clear, the distinction that's being drawn. OpenAI is talking about launching an open source model here shortly,” — BG2 Pod Sat, 21 Jun 2025 15:51:43 +0000 Gerstner cites Sam Altman's Gentle Singularity blog arguing AGI won't arrive as sudden disruption. https://minutesof.com/q/65fc7c19-97f8-44b5-aca8-d870e0139bdf/ https://minutesof.com/q/65fc7c19-97f8-44b5-aca8-d870e0139bdf/ “I don't know if you read Sam Altman's blog that was out this week called the Gentle Singularity.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 21 Jun 2025 15:51:43 +0000 Gerstner notes the world changed dramatically in 24 months, switching from Google to ChatGPT. https://minutesof.com/q/6c85668b-e231-4d10-a866-ab8530026dc0/ https://minutesof.com/q/6c85668b-e231-4d10-a866-ab8530026dc0/ “Sam's like the world has already changed dramatically over the course of last twenty four months, but people aren't, you know, it's not changed that much about our daily lives.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 21 Jun 2025 15:51:43 +0000 the market cap of the world, the net worth of the world is like $45,500,000,000,000,000. Equities, I think, ar https://minutesof.com/q/bb25da06-6ca8-4094-b7a3-324b1457896f/ https://minutesof.com/q/bb25da06-6ca8-4094-b7a3-324b1457896f/ “the market cap of the world, the net worth of the world is like $45,500,000,000,000,000. Equities, I think, are like 120 or stuff. Real estate's probably another 100, 150.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 we're like Bitcoin at two. And I'm like, god, so Bitcoin represents two out of 500 of the net worth of the wor https://minutesof.com/q/2a330d71-7d66-4678-b197-11584fdbeddf/ https://minutesof.com/q/2a330d71-7d66-4678-b197-11584fdbeddf/ “we're like Bitcoin at two. And I'm like, god, so Bitcoin represents two out of 500 of the net worth of the world or 400, whatever. It moves a little bit. Could it be four?” — BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 Gerstner calculates Microsoft could reach $7 trillion market cap in ten years growing at just 7% annually. https://minutesof.com/q/77311223-0022-4c88-b2ea-cbfb1b759659/ https://minutesof.com/q/77311223-0022-4c88-b2ea-cbfb1b759659/ “the largest company, Microsoft, today is like 3 and onetwo trillion. Let's say that Microsoft, I don't know, doubles in ten years. It would only be growing at 7% per year.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 Gerstner's data shows Google page views grow 4% annually for users without ChatGPT subscriptions, contrasting https://minutesof.com/q/ba063ec1-83a2-484d-bec3-cd582faa31bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/ba063ec1-83a2-484d-bec3-cd582faa31bc/ “absent ChatGDP, ChatGPT, maybe Google page views for a particular user are growing 4% per year. So we are consuming more Google.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 Gerstner's analysis shows Google page views decline 8-11% year-over-year for users who subscribe to ChatGPT. https://minutesof.com/q/c8eac535-452a-4b6e-8c91-ceaf06696696/ https://minutesof.com/q/c8eac535-452a-4b6e-8c91-ceaf06696696/ “And you can see peak to trough is down 8% year over year. Peak to trough is, let's say, down 11. So clearly, page views are going down,” — BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 Gerstner calculates that 2.5-3.5% annual productivity growth for a decade could substantially reduce the US de https://minutesof.com/q/1985298b-35b6-47bd-9bbe-070c98fdca51/ https://minutesof.com/q/1985298b-35b6-47bd-9bbe-070c98fdca51/ “if productivity for the next decade or so was about two and a half to three and a half percent per year, we could achieve substantial reductions in this key ratio of debt to GDP.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 Gerstner notes 1990s experts wrongly predicted debt-to-GDP would rise to 80%; instead it fell from 60 to 40. https://minutesof.com/q/f7e5ee2a-9317-45ec-a0c6-e02fddeffd5d/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7e5ee2a-9317-45ec-a0c6-e02fddeffd5d/ “in 1993, debt to GDP was supposed to go from 40 to or 60 to 80 by experts, it in fact went from 60 to 40. Yes. So experts can be wrong by a lot.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 Gerstner references Henry Blodgett's $400 Amazon call in 2000 as historical precedent for AI investments. https://minutesof.com/q/4ac7b5bb-d43b-4aa9-aa5d-338c2683c4c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/4ac7b5bb-d43b-4aa9-aa5d-338c2683c4c6/ “I talked about Henry Blodgett's 400 call on Amazon back in 2000. Right? What do you think Amazon is today relative to the $400 call that Henry Blodgett made in 2000?” — CNBC Television Thu, 12 Jun 2025 17:50:39 +0000 Gerstner notes Amazon is up 87x since Blodgett's 2000 call, validating long-term thinking. https://minutesof.com/q/cb2823c6-9e97-4367-aa5d-8fd037b43b7f/ https://minutesof.com/q/cb2823c6-9e97-4367-aa5d-8fd037b43b7f/ “Amazon is up 87 times today from where it was when he made that call.” — CNBC Television Thu, 12 Jun 2025 17:50:39 +0000 Gerstner says ChatGPT reached a billion searches daily eight years faster than Google did. https://minutesof.com/q/0ba71f25-ea44-4b97-b300-5c6bead088f0/ https://minutesof.com/q/0ba71f25-ea44-4b97-b300-5c6bead088f0/ “ChatGPT got to a billion searches a day. Eight years faster than Google did. Is not internet time. Is AI hyper speed. It is way faster.” — CNBC Television Thu, 12 Jun 2025 17:50:39 +0000 Gerstner states OpenAI is four times the size Google was at IPO in revenue and searches. https://minutesof.com/q/afa5e9ca-0fd5-4c73-8fb0-11ffc3fb6a8b/ https://minutesof.com/q/afa5e9ca-0fd5-4c73-8fb0-11ffc3fb6a8b/ “OpenAI today is four times the size that Google was when it went public in terms of revenue, in terms of searches.” — CNBC Television Thu, 12 Jun 2025 17:50:39 +0000 Gerstner warns Huawei went from 0% to 50% Saudi market share, arguing US must export AI technology. https://minutesof.com/q/b39df35c-a461-4811-aca6-f8de41c8d66d/ https://minutesof.com/q/b39df35c-a461-4811-aca6-f8de41c8d66d/ “Huawei has gone from 0% market share in Saudi Arabia to 50% market share in Saudi Arabia.” — CNBC Television Thu, 12 Jun 2025 17:50:39 +0000 Gerstner says NVIDIA had 80% China market share with developers in CUDA ecosystem, generating billions in US t https://minutesof.com/q/781aa249-aab8-4a99-9d5e-3907bda9199b/ https://minutesof.com/q/781aa249-aab8-4a99-9d5e-3907bda9199b/ “NVIDIA has you know, it went from 80% market share in China where all the developers, second largest developer market in the world, were were developing in CUDA.” — CNBC Television Thu, 12 Jun 2025 17:50:39 +0000 Gerstner recounts Amazon peaked at $243 in 1998, fell to $26 after Blodgett's $400 call. https://minutesof.com/q/94e0bd25-ff4f-417c-bed8-b18d31825e65/ https://minutesof.com/q/94e0bd25-ff4f-417c-bed8-b18d31825e65/ “Amazon, if you recall, Bill, and I know you do, it peaked at $243 a share in 1998. But at the start of 2000, it's at $150 a share.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 05 Jun 2025 23:20:47 +0000 Gerstner says OpenAI reached 400 billion annual searches eight years faster than Google did. https://minutesof.com/q/d8bc3b3c-6786-485f-ad97-a551d6ed0f2e/ https://minutesof.com/q/d8bc3b3c-6786-485f-ad97-a551d6ed0f2e/ “I did I saw some analysis from my team this week will post that OpenAI reached, you know, 400,000,000,000 annual searches, eight years faster than Google.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 05 Jun 2025 23:20:47 +0000 Gerstner cites study showing 40-50% of top US AI researchers are Chinese. https://minutesof.com/q/5e2d07c0-7fef-407b-ab7d-b61d9ace2621/ https://minutesof.com/q/5e2d07c0-7fef-407b-ab7d-b61d9ace2621/ “I saw a study that suggested that 40 to 50% of the AI researchers in The United States, our best researchers are Chinese.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 05 Jun 2025 23:20:47 +0000 Gerstner proposes trading AI chip access to China for rare earth materials access. https://minutesof.com/q/f62ea508-a2ac-42a6-97f7-3cc4207a65a5/ https://minutesof.com/q/f62ea508-a2ac-42a6-97f7-3cc4207a65a5/ “On point three, it gets us right? If we do this trade, and I don't know that China would do this trade, but if we did this trade, then it would get us access to those rare earths right now, which is absolutely critical, and it buys us time to stand up our own rare earth supply.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 05 Jun 2025 23:20:47 +0000 Gerstner warns chip ban increases risk China moves on Taiwan given AGI timeline claims. https://minutesof.com/q/8498a796-15c4-4e13-ac56-a3a80afb7155/ https://minutesof.com/q/8498a796-15c4-4e13-ac56-a3a80afb7155/ “I think it dramatically increases the chances that China is forced to move on Taiwan. Right? We're out there telling everybody in the world that AI is totally existential.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 05 Jun 2025 23:20:47 +0000 Gerstner says US will go from 0% to 15-20% leading edge chip capacity by 2030. https://minutesof.com/q/c9272ee1-e5b2-4332-be06-c3237d4b2f09/ https://minutesof.com/q/c9272ee1-e5b2-4332-be06-c3237d4b2f09/ “Today, have about 0% of leading edge chips fabbed outside of Taiwan. Right? Almost nothing in The United States.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 05 Jun 2025 23:20:47 +0000 Gerstner says 70% of Americans don't participate in market upside and less than half under 40 favor capitalism https://minutesof.com/q/45f71de1-1ce4-4740-8c70-802b437ee5bd/ https://minutesof.com/q/45f71de1-1ce4-4740-8c70-802b437ee5bd/ “They don't have accounts that compound. They feel left out. They feel left behind. Less than half of people under the age of 40 have a favorable view of capitalism.” — Bloomberg Live Thu, 05 Jun 2025 09:44:40 +0000 Gerstner says Invest America costs $3.7 billion annually, equivalent to one Patriot missile battery. https://minutesof.com/q/8ac2b20a-63f5-4b8c-9ffc-9853e62fb32e/ https://minutesof.com/q/8ac2b20a-63f5-4b8c-9ffc-9853e62fb32e/ “So the total cost of this, 3,700,000 kids born a year, a thousand bucks each kid, $3,700,000,000. Just to contextualize that, that's about the cost of a single Patriot missile battery.” — Bloomberg Live Thu, 05 Jun 2025 09:44:40 +0000 Gerstner projects that $1,000 seed plus $750 annually grows to $50,000 by age 18. https://minutesof.com/q/32425a67-ceb5-4819-8b88-ac5bfa276110/ https://minutesof.com/q/32425a67-ceb5-4819-8b88-ac5bfa276110/ “If we do this, $7.50 a year, it's $50,000 at age 18 when they can first touch it,” — Bloomberg Live Thu, 05 Jun 2025 09:44:40 +0000 Gerstner argues cutting $2 trillion in one year would create negative 7% GDP and trigger recession. https://minutesof.com/q/d4826d97-af07-4934-88e0-8cb6fd3f33eb/ https://minutesof.com/q/d4826d97-af07-4934-88e0-8cb6fd3f33eb/ “The problem is every $300,000,000,000 you cut is a 1% headwind to GDP. So if you cut $2,000,000,000,000 in a single year, you have negative 7% GDP, right?” — Bloomberg Live Thu, 05 Jun 2025 09:44:40 +0000 Gerstner reports Saudi minister said Huawei went from 0% to 40% market share, nearly winning the contract. https://minutesof.com/q/d71c627d-97cf-4a30-974f-0a8923b1034a/ https://minutesof.com/q/d71c627d-97cf-4a30-974f-0a8923b1034a/ “One of the ministers in Saudi Arabia said to me that Huawei had gone from 0% market share to 40% market share and they were months away from making the decision to go with the Huawei stack right? Because they can't be left behind. They have to do something.” — Bloomberg Live Thu, 05 Jun 2025 09:44:40 +0000 Gerstner argues NVIDIA's $40 billion China business keeps them on CUDA and export bans risk forcing Taiwan con https://minutesof.com/q/8e2b6629-58fa-4882-a625-98329e4cd5a8/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e2b6629-58fa-4882-a625-98329e4cd5a8/ “It's $40,000,000,000 business NVIDIA in China to keep them on the CUDA ecosystem rather than allowing them to have a monopoly on the Huawei ecosystem.” — Bloomberg Live Thu, 05 Jun 2025 09:44:40 +0000 Gerstner notes 70% of current jobs didn't exist in 1940 to illustrate technology's job creation. https://minutesof.com/q/998a9eb2-da95-41e7-bbf1-27e99f0149b0/ https://minutesof.com/q/998a9eb2-da95-41e7-bbf1-27e99f0149b0/ “70% of the jobs that exist today did not exist in 1940. Okay? So we have to evolve and we have to expand.” — Bloomberg Live Thu, 05 Jun 2025 09:44:40 +0000 Gerstner says the UAE-US AI campus announced is five gigawatts, equivalent to 2.5 million GPUs. https://minutesof.com/q/80b86fdf-a612-4f6e-84b0-ea3470e3aaa7/ https://minutesof.com/q/80b86fdf-a612-4f6e-84b0-ea3470e3aaa7/ “So in in Abu Dhabi, they announced a five gigawatt US AI you know, it's a UAE, US AI campus. It's an incredible architectural campus.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 May 2025 16:23:05 +0000 Gerstner recalculated tariffs from original $800 billion estimate on Liberation Day to new figure. https://minutesof.com/q/a32a7376-d0cf-4c15-9271-1e6b621f50bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/a32a7376-d0cf-4c15-9271-1e6b621f50bc/ “So remember, I came on here on liberation day, and I held up the list of tariffs that that that were on the poster board that Trump showed.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 May 2025 16:23:05 +0000 Gerstner now forecasts $300 billion in tariffs, 4x last year's $77 billion revenue. https://minutesof.com/q/fa49d30d-9c9f-4a94-9987-e86b840b383d/ https://minutesof.com/q/fa49d30d-9c9f-4a94-9987-e86b840b383d/ “Okay? I just told you that last year tariffs were 77,000,000,000. So that's still a four x increase in tariff revenue,” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 May 2025 16:23:05 +0000 Gerstner estimates NVIDIA lost track to $50 billion China business from chip export ban. https://minutesof.com/q/2933e7dd-60f4-4164-a09c-21f875253189/ https://minutesof.com/q/2933e7dd-60f4-4164-a09c-21f875253189/ “I think if you forecast out two or three years, they were on track to be a $50,000,000,000 business, I think in China.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 May 2025 16:23:05 +0000 Gerstner says House renamed his Invest America proposal to MAGA account, which is polarizing. https://minutesof.com/q/f292ad99-5a09-4acb-9ceb-1818c9da6848/ https://minutesof.com/q/f292ad99-5a09-4acb-9ceb-1818c9da6848/ “In the house version of the bill, they renamed it the MAGA account, which stood for money account for growth and advancement.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 May 2025 16:23:05 +0000 There's gonna be a lot of alpha. This is a stock pickers market. This is not a market just to own the index an https://minutesof.com/q/dc507453-8c81-4a3e-a0f2-09a121b99672/ https://minutesof.com/q/dc507453-8c81-4a3e-a0f2-09a121b99672/ “There's gonna be a lot of alpha. This is a stock pickers market. This is not a market just to own the index and go to sleep.” — CNBC Television Mon, 05 May 2025 18:29:26 +0000 Gerstner quotes Buffett saying free and fair trade has been the most powerful engine for prosperity for fifty https://minutesof.com/q/c857c799-4674-46d6-b18c-d745eac6ae6e/ https://minutesof.com/q/c857c799-4674-46d6-b18c-d745eac6ae6e/ “Just this weekend, he said, free and fair trade, right, has been the most powerful engine for prosperity on a global basis and this country for the last fifty years.” — CNBC Television Mon, 05 May 2025 18:29:26 +0000 Gerstner says 70% of Americans lack compounding accounts and proposes $1,000 at birth in private federal accou https://minutesof.com/q/bcaf514e-ed3b-4546-959b-1f6782a433ce/ https://minutesof.com/q/bcaf514e-ed3b-4546-959b-1f6782a433ce/ “We need to get them into the game. So it's a thousand dollars at birth, seeded by the, the federal government, but private accounts.” — CNBC Television Mon, 05 May 2025 18:29:26 +0000 Gerstner says 3.7 million kids born yearly would get private accounts, with Uber, Dell, Oracle, and Nvidia con https://minutesof.com/q/ff43b829-1483-42a3-a151-3a76d6cc1039/ https://minutesof.com/q/ff43b829-1483-42a3-a151-3a76d6cc1039/ “And we have companies like Uber and Dell and many, many others, Oracle, Nvidia, etcetera, all say they'll contribute to the accounts of the kids of their employees.” — CNBC Television Mon, 05 May 2025 18:29:26 +0000 Gerstner projects Invest America accounts would grow to $50,000-$60,000 by age 18 through S&P 500 compounding. https://minutesof.com/q/433a7652-4e35-4118-8696-2ae501a4ee28/ https://minutesof.com/q/433a7652-4e35-4118-8696-2ae501a4ee28/ “So by the time you're an eight you're 18 years old, you will have an account in the S and P five hundred that's worth upwards of 50 to $60,000.” — CNBC Television Mon, 05 May 2025 18:29:26 +0000 Gerstner says Invest America could pass by July 4, 2026, giving 40 million children ownership in Apple, Berksh https://minutesof.com/q/06542901-f0be-4283-b631-803ba71315e7/ https://minutesof.com/q/06542901-f0be-4283-b631-803ba71315e7/ “If the president signs this into law as part of reconciliation on July 4 of this year, that means on our two hundred and fiftieth anniversary, 07/04/2026, we can have 40,000,000 children, 40,000,000 families.” — CNBC Television Mon, 05 May 2025 18:29:26 +0000 Gerstner says FSD versions 12.3 and 12.9 convinced him autonomy had arrived. https://minutesof.com/q/8559a717-5ded-4baf-bb13-b0dab660aa34/ https://minutesof.com/q/8559a717-5ded-4baf-bb13-b0dab660aa34/ “And starting in the spring of last year when we saw full self driving, you know, 12.3, and then by the end of the year, 12.9, we just knew autonomy was here.” — CNBC Television Thu, 03 Apr 2025 18:08:17 +0000 Gerstner says his December Tesla Model S drives him everywhere without touching the steering wheel. https://minutesof.com/q/c4449e39-0a56-4302-823e-58947bef8088/ https://minutesof.com/q/c4449e39-0a56-4302-823e-58947bef8088/ “I have a a new Tesla Model s I bought in December. It drives me everywhere. I tweeted about it the other day. I don't touch the steering wheel.” — CNBC Television Thu, 03 Apr 2025 18:08:17 +0000 Gerstner believes robotaxis pose a fundamental risk to Uber's business model. https://minutesof.com/q/d9bf9ba2-64ad-4f01-9591-d18ae4bb686b/ https://minutesof.com/q/d9bf9ba2-64ad-4f01-9591-d18ae4bb686b/ “I I I think this does pose a risk fundamentally to the Uber business model.” — CNBC Television Thu, 03 Apr 2025 18:08:17 +0000 Gerstner observes San Francisco parents prefer Waymo robotaxis over human-driven Ubers for their kids. https://minutesof.com/q/a1c25c17-9cad-437f-bf53-b7a8e8be6d88/ https://minutesof.com/q/a1c25c17-9cad-437f-bf53-b7a8e8be6d88/ “We see parents all over San Francisco that are getting their kids to after school activities in Waymo's with no drivers. They actually prefer it to an Uber with a driver.” — CNBC Television Thu, 03 Apr 2025 18:08:17 +0000 Gerstner has added a small Uber position in recent weeks during pullbacks. https://minutesof.com/q/ef844a59-5578-4ce5-af3c-e132ce078b21/ https://minutesof.com/q/ef844a59-5578-4ce5-af3c-e132ce078b21/ “We actually have a small slice of of Uber in our portfolio today that we've added right over the course of the past few weeks on some of these pullbacks.” — CNBC Television Thu, 03 Apr 2025 18:08:17 +0000 Gerstner earned 100x returns on Amazon in public markets, returns now going to private investors instead. https://minutesof.com/q/4bfaeb57-cf43-4ffb-b8ad-63cfb6e177cc/ https://minutesof.com/q/4bfaeb57-cf43-4ffb-b8ad-63cfb6e177cc/ “So I earned a 100 x return in the public markets. Right? By all accounts, venture capitalists would do back flips for that return, but those returns were going to private market participants.” — Upfront Ventures Thu, 13 Mar 2025 21:33:08 +0000 Gerstner says OpenAI's $10B raise at $150B valuation is essentially public but excludes retail investors. https://minutesof.com/q/47f2f6a4-777d-4a8f-87f2-7f7f421cbaac/ https://minutesof.com/q/47f2f6a4-777d-4a8f-87f2-7f7f421cbaac/ “You know, it's just nomenclature to not call that public. The problem with it is, the only people who get access to that are accredited investors, and retail investors are completely cut out.” — Upfront Ventures Thu, 13 Mar 2025 21:33:08 +0000 Gerstner reports organic search traffic down 20-40% as companies push AI-embedded answers above traditional re https://minutesof.com/q/6ed4d5f1-0a53-494c-ad8b-9ea2367106c4/ https://minutesof.com/q/6ed4d5f1-0a53-494c-ad8b-9ea2367106c4/ “They're saying organic search is down 20 to 40%. Why? Because they're putting AI on top of it. They got to push it down the page.” — Upfront Ventures Thu, 13 Mar 2025 21:33:08 +0000 Gerstner reports OpenAI will exceed $11 billion in revenue this year per recent CNBC disclosure. https://minutesof.com/q/f14b73e0-2ecf-47a5-95af-e918f8ca841e/ https://minutesof.com/q/f14b73e0-2ecf-47a5-95af-e918f8ca841e/ “OpenAI, you could see the pacing from the launch of their first consumer product relative to Google and Meta. Sarah just talked on CNBC last week, this year will be over $11,000,000,000” — Upfront Ventures Thu, 13 Mar 2025 21:33:08 +0000 Gerstner calculates proposed tariffs would 10x revenue to $500B while Doge cuts $1T spending, totaling $1.5T a https://minutesof.com/q/0611c7f4-6769-4eb4-8594-5873c287a92a/ https://minutesof.com/q/0611c7f4-6769-4eb4-8594-5873c287a92a/ “If you look at tariffs, they're likely to impose, we currently generate about $50,000,000,000 in tariff revenue. The president is targeting 500,000,000,000, so a 10x increase in tariff revenue.” — Upfront Ventures Thu, 13 Mar 2025 21:33:08 +0000 Gerstner argues successful government austerity means short-term pain for markets by withdrawing liquidity fro https://minutesof.com/q/7b7386e0-c4be-4480-ae1b-0d9f3f3a9d16/ https://minutesof.com/q/7b7386e0-c4be-4480-ae1b-0d9f3f3a9d16/ “I think ironically, what people are not yet bracing for is that the success of austerity, the success of balancing the budget, the success of Doge, likely means short term pain for markets.” — Upfront Ventures Thu, 13 Mar 2025 21:33:08 +0000 Gerstner cites United Airlines government ticket sales down 50% year-to-date as indicator of spending cuts' ca https://minutesof.com/q/5737dfb5-6447-473a-8815-2b467905fca6/ https://minutesof.com/q/5737dfb5-6447-473a-8815-2b467905fca6/ “I heard a stat the other day that United Airlines ticket sales to the government this year are down 50% year to date, five zero.” — Upfront Ventures Thu, 13 Mar 2025 21:33:08 +0000 Gerstner says CEO uncertainty from tariff negotiations forces real decisions on pricing and supply chains. https://minutesof.com/q/f61d9902-5463-482d-8cfa-de4dd5d7224d/ https://minutesof.com/q/f61d9902-5463-482d-8cfa-de4dd5d7224d/ “They gotta make real life decisions about what do I do with prices, what do I do with my supply chain, etcetera.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 Mar 2025 13:00:04 +0000 Gerstner explains recent market decline as rising uncertainty increasing discount rates and compressing multip https://minutesof.com/q/87ff320f-836b-487e-9716-16a70df9701f/ https://minutesof.com/q/87ff320f-836b-487e-9716-16a70df9701f/ “When uncertainty goes up, discount rates go up, risk premiums go up, multiples come down, markets come down. That's that's the explanation for the last four weeks in the market.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 Mar 2025 13:00:04 +0000 Gerstner cites recent Delta and United warnings about softening consumer demand as grabbing Fed attention. https://minutesof.com/q/91715c32-644e-4989-a615-cffb35228e3a/ https://minutesof.com/q/91715c32-644e-4989-a615-cffb35228e3a/ “But when they hear Delta Airlines warn this week that they're seeing, you know, a softening of consumer demand, when they see United Airlines, Scott Kirby, you know, say the same things.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 Mar 2025 13:00:04 +0000 Gerstner argues White House is moving fast because delaying tariff resolution risks 2026 midterms with recessi https://minutesof.com/q/1d421ebe-4a6e-4f86-a6f4-41fdeff1335a/ https://minutesof.com/q/1d421ebe-4a6e-4f86-a6f4-41fdeff1335a/ “But that's why I think that the speaker and the White House are moving at lightning speed. They know this can't drift into the summer or fall, or you run the risk of starting 2026.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 Mar 2025 13:00:04 +0000 Gerstner says TSMC pledged $100 billion more, contributing to $1.5 trillion in total U.S. reinvestment commitm https://minutesof.com/q/e5ca5eb9-cc98-492b-8356-ed620a8c3c70/ https://minutesof.com/q/e5ca5eb9-cc98-492b-8356-ed620a8c3c70/ “I mean, the list of companies, I think we're up to a trillion, a trillion and $0.5 of reinvestment.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 Mar 2025 13:00:04 +0000 Gerstner cites CoreWeave's $12 billion OpenAI Stargate deal announced yesterday as evidence AI buildout contin https://minutesof.com/q/49c880e4-2625-4096-ae06-c44b2d83e61e/ https://minutesof.com/q/49c880e4-2625-4096-ae06-c44b2d83e61e/ “CoreWeave announced yesterday a $12,000,000,000 deal with OpenAI on Stargate. Those things are getting constructive. We're investors there. I I can tell you those things are getting built.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 Mar 2025 13:00:04 +0000 Gerstner says M&A teams dormant for three years are back to work after ServiceNow's $3 billion Moveworks deal. https://minutesof.com/q/0e689960-0eff-4389-a225-24d8e5f781ca/ https://minutesof.com/q/0e689960-0eff-4389-a225-24d8e5f781ca/ “I can tell you every company has pulled their m and a teams off the beach. They haven't done anything for three years, and they're all back to work.” — CNBC Television Wed, 12 Mar 2025 13:00:04 +0000 Gerstner proposes seeding $1,000 S&P 500 accounts at birth, treating them like 401(k)s from day one. https://minutesof.com/q/7b8ac06f-87c7-40fe-96e5-5a64f8220922/ https://minutesof.com/q/7b8ac06f-87c7-40fe-96e5-5a64f8220922/ “Seed it with a thousand dollars in a lockbox in the S and P 500, and treat it like a four zero one k from birth.” — Milken Institute Wed, 12 Feb 2025 20:55:21 +0000 Gerstner cites 401(k) programs hold $13 trillion with $75 billion contributed annually as model. https://minutesof.com/q/58097da2-3386-49e4-a1a0-9bde50f2e057/ https://minutesof.com/q/58097da2-3386-49e4-a1a0-9bde50f2e057/ “The four zero one k program in this country now has $13,000,000,000,000 in it. 75,000,000,000 is contributed annually.” — Milken Institute Wed, 12 Feb 2025 20:55:21 +0000 Gerstner says less than half of under-40s believe in capitalism, making private accounts critical. https://minutesof.com/q/a706399d-3e9b-43b9-aad2-423f40f48177/ https://minutesof.com/q/a706399d-3e9b-43b9-aad2-423f40f48177/ “Less than half of people under the age of 40 believe in it. Okay? Gallup, Pew, Axios, we have all the data.” — Milken Institute Wed, 12 Feb 2025 20:55:21 +0000 Gerstner reports DeepSeek is massively compute constrained now, with GPU differential growing versus OpenAI fo https://minutesof.com/q/7915177a-c38e-49f6-8c41-f1704a1047cb/ https://minutesof.com/q/7915177a-c38e-49f6-8c41-f1704a1047cb/ “On top of that, we learned, you know, they are massively compute constrained right now. So you've seen some tweets about this, people that are, you know, getting server delay and all this stuff” — BG2 Pod Wed, 05 Feb 2025 23:13:28 +0000 Gerstner suggests Trump believes America peaked during 1880s high-tariff era before income tax replaced tariff https://minutesof.com/q/a41d2bdb-ec56-4c06-8ec4-a0d42f857dd7/ https://minutesof.com/q/a41d2bdb-ec56-4c06-8ec4-a0d42f857dd7/ “So prior to 1910, which is when we got the income tax, right, the vast majority,” — BG2 Pod Wed, 05 Feb 2025 23:13:28 +0000 Gerstner contrasts buying NVIDIA in fall 2022 based purely on tech fundamentals versus today's layered policy https://minutesof.com/q/2fa1a55a-6d2f-4f09-b7ed-0addc1932d35/ https://minutesof.com/q/2fa1a55a-6d2f-4f09-b7ed-0addc1932d35/ “What do I do as an investor? You know, what did I do in the fall of twenty two that led me into NVIDIA in the first place?” — BG2 Pod Wed, 05 Feb 2025 23:13:28 +0000 Gerstner argues sovereign wealth fund must clear 5% hurdle rate given $40 trillion debt at 5% cost. https://minutesof.com/q/ab9b1770-cf9b-4c61-970a-1277f16b5bd0/ https://minutesof.com/q/ab9b1770-cf9b-4c61-970a-1277f16b5bd0/ “So we're a debtor nation, and we're paying 5% on all that debt. So the hurdle rate to our return that is needed on the sovereign wealth fund, right, is 5%.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 05 Feb 2025 23:13:28 +0000 Gerstner says Jensen confirmed a trillion dollars of data center CPU replacement workloads over four years bey https://minutesof.com/q/857cfae0-7c82-485a-b86b-ff7f2b2886b5/ https://minutesof.com/q/857cfae0-7c82-485a-b86b-ff7f2b2886b5/ “he said, but we're also going to have a trillion dollars of CPU replacement, of data center replacement workloads over the course of the next four years.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:12:56 +0000 Gerstner argues NVIDIA at 30 PE versus Cisco's 120 PE means comparison to 2000 bubble is uninformed. https://minutesof.com/q/e4af539d-f8f1-4c5f-b0ca-826f690d71ec/ https://minutesof.com/q/e4af539d-f8f1-4c5f-b0ca-826f690d71ec/ “So you would have to think that there would be 70% PE compression from here or that their revenue was going to fall by 70% or that their earnings were going to fall by 70%.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:12:56 +0000 Gerstner argues GPU capex sustainability depends on hyperscalers generating commensurate inference revenues, c https://minutesof.com/q/1f05e933-62cf-41bc-8ccd-b022653c4c8b/ https://minutesof.com/q/1f05e933-62cf-41bc-8ccd-b022653c4c8b/ “It all comes down ultimately to the revenues that are generated by the people who are making the purchases of the GPUs. Right?” — BG2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:12:56 +0000 Gerstner posits 30% annual infrastructure expense growth requires matching inference revenue growth from enter https://minutesof.com/q/6de51955-08c4-41cb-b6a1-1ee2e37ef67e/ https://minutesof.com/q/6de51955-08c4-41cb-b6a1-1ee2e37ef67e/ “if you think that infrastructure expenses are going to grow at 30% a year, then I think you have to believe that the underlying inference revenues, right, both on the consumer side and the enterprise side are gonna grow somewhere in that range as well.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:12:56 +0000 Gerstner claims all human GDP growth occurred after America's founding and wealth of nations publication. https://minutesof.com/q/20238ddb-9934-4ffb-8be8-5c8775fdad9a/ https://minutesof.com/q/20238ddb-9934-4ffb-8be8-5c8775fdad9a/ “So we have two thousand years, you have no GDP growth. And it all happens to magically line up with, you know, the founding of America, the wealth of nations, limited government, entrepreneurialism, etcetera.” — Hoover Institution Tue, 10 Dec 2024 20:07:35 +0000 Gerstner argues regulatory burdens keep companies private longer, harming retail investors. https://minutesof.com/q/fa0e298b-b580-4e1c-9b76-2a7e5932332c/ https://minutesof.com/q/fa0e298b-b580-4e1c-9b76-2a7e5932332c/ “I think we're better off as a country when these companies are coming public sooner. But that's that's in fact what's happened. So we invest early.” — Hoover Institution Tue, 10 Dec 2024 20:07:35 +0000 Gerstner predicts AI super cycle will be bigger than internet, mobile, and cloud combined. https://minutesof.com/q/19600c22-99b0-4a8a-8509-b93431eb62ef/ https://minutesof.com/q/19600c22-99b0-4a8a-8509-b93431eb62ef/ “I think this super cycle is going to be bigger than all the other super cycles put together like I think this is what we're going to be investing again against for decades to come.” — Hoover Institution Tue, 10 Dec 2024 20:07:35 +0000 Gerstner cites studies showing children with investment accounts have better educational and economic outcomes https://minutesof.com/q/4447000d-1b79-4f74-a977-e4d8ea3ba6d3/ https://minutesof.com/q/4447000d-1b79-4f74-a977-e4d8ea3ba6d3/ “We know that kids who have an investment account for birth, they're more likely to graduate from high school. They're more likely to be financially literate.” — Hoover Institution Tue, 10 Dec 2024 20:07:35 +0000 Gerstner says less than half of Americans under 40 believe in capitalism, prompting his proposal. https://minutesof.com/q/2aac0e85-848b-45cb-9fd7-3e0e731cea05/ https://minutesof.com/q/2aac0e85-848b-45cb-9fd7-3e0e731cea05/ “Okay? He said the Marxists are going to hate this because every child from birth is going to be aligned with capital Right?” — Hoover Institution Tue, 10 Dec 2024 20:07:35 +0000 Gerstner argues balancing the budget by 2029 requires reducing government spending 3% annually from $7T to $6T https://minutesof.com/q/366a2470-1dc7-4f61-9e92-d0f6de65efeb/ https://minutesof.com/q/366a2470-1dc7-4f61-9e92-d0f6de65efeb/ “Now you get there by simply reducing the size of government by about 3% a year for the next four years. Again, just still going from 5,000,000,000,000 in 2019 to 6,000,000,000,000 in 2029.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:11:58 +0000 Gerstner calculates that 4.9% revenue growth would produce a $450B surplus by 2029. https://minutesof.com/q/f1d8458c-31f7-430e-b03c-1ddefce263ce/ https://minutesof.com/q/f1d8458c-31f7-430e-b03c-1ddefce263ce/ “If we grew revenues at the same rate that we have for the last twenty years, right, starting next year, which is 4.9% per year CAGR for twenty years, we would end up with a $450,000,000,000 surplus in 2029.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:11:58 +0000 Gerstner notes Tesla's Fremont factory employs 20,000 people and produces over 550,000 cars. https://minutesof.com/q/569ff5ca-b0f2-4109-94aa-c2f9cd3df110/ https://minutesof.com/q/569ff5ca-b0f2-4109-94aa-c2f9cd3df110/ “Tesla, of course, produces cars over in Fremont just across across the bay from here, employs 20,000 people, produced over 550,000 Teslas in the Fremont factory.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:11:58 +0000 Gerstner cites Scott Bessent describing Trump's tariff strategy as loaded gun that will rarely be discharged. https://minutesof.com/q/b8bb5ef4-06a3-400f-84b5-a58dfba7c7fc/ https://minutesof.com/q/b8bb5ef4-06a3-400f-84b5-a58dfba7c7fc/ “His nominee to be treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has said, quote, the tariff gun will be loaded but rarely discharged, end quote.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:11:58 +0000 Gerstner describes Invest America as creating 3.7M annual investment accounts for newborns with corporate cont https://minutesof.com/q/b314fc2d-9605-4227-b37c-08806e129b08/ https://minutesof.com/q/b314fc2d-9605-4227-b37c-08806e129b08/ “So the idea is that the federal government would cause to be created 3,700,000 investment accounts a year for every child that's born in America.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:11:58 +0000 Gerstner says individuals with $100B+ could invest $10B to match contributions for families earning under $150 https://minutesof.com/q/37b54c29-0cb5-4239-be9b-39603847d7ee/ https://minutesof.com/q/37b54c29-0cb5-4239-be9b-39603847d7ee/ “I've heard from several of these folks who have upwards of a $100,000,000,000 that they could take $10,000,000,000, put it in a drawdown trust in their state, for example, invest in the S and P 500, and match for all the kids of the families who earn, let's call it, under a $150,000.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 27 Nov 2024 19:11:58 +0000 Gerstner notes NVIDIA's Hopper demand remains exceptional and will continue into next year, defying expectatio https://minutesof.com/q/f47ba054-fac3-496b-92ea-adf63b767aa7/ https://minutesof.com/q/f47ba054-fac3-496b-92ea-adf63b767aa7/ “We may have people thought hopper demand would be over by now, frankly, and he said it's going to continue well into next year.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:09:14 +0000 Gerstner reports Microsoft expects Azure revenue to accelerate despite already growing 34% on a $66 billion ba https://minutesof.com/q/fc678a4f-5eda-42b1-aae4-a76a32a97f3d/ https://minutesof.com/q/fc678a4f-5eda-42b1-aae4-a76a32a97f3d/ “Microsoft, which is on $66,000,000,000 run rate at Azure, has said they expect q one and q two Azure revenue to accelerate. Think about that, Bill. Azure is growing at 34% on a $66,000,000,000 base,” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:09:14 +0000 Gerstner estimates Tesla FSD 13 will match Waymo at around 25,000 miles per critical disengagement at Q4 launc https://minutesof.com/q/46d8898f-8c82-456c-9b26-c9d8099c2eb4/ https://minutesof.com/q/46d8898f-8c82-456c-9b26-c9d8099c2eb4/ “At launch in q four of this year, it looks like version 13 will be somewhere around 25,000 miles per critical disengagement.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:09:14 +0000 Gerstner projects Tesla FSD could reach 500,000 miles per critical disengagement by mid-2025, matching human a https://minutesof.com/q/cb8784cb-8490-4af9-9f61-93b7e7853de4/ https://minutesof.com/q/cb8784cb-8490-4af9-9f61-93b7e7853de4/ “And at the current rate of improvement, right, in q one of next year, they could be at a 100,000 miles per critical disengagement. By the middle of next year, 500,000 miles per critical disengagement.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:09:14 +0000 Gerstner calls 2024 the ChatGPT moment for full self-driving technology based on deployment evidence. https://minutesof.com/q/0e4dcf3c-1ef6-4f23-acbb-63ff3acb6210/ https://minutesof.com/q/0e4dcf3c-1ef6-4f23-acbb-63ff3acb6210/ “Right? That's self reported, right, with with with human drivers. So if 2024 was the chat GPT moment for full self driving, Bill, where we started seeing Waymo's on every street corner in San Francisco,” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:09:14 +0000 Gerstner argues federal budget can balance in four years with modest 5-5-2% spending cuts and 3-4% revenue gro https://minutesof.com/q/3ea3a46a-13b4-47da-a103-1700b0372bf3/ https://minutesof.com/q/3ea3a46a-13b4-47da-a103-1700b0372bf3/ “So all that does is get you back to trend line from 2019 As though we increased spending 3% a year from 2019, the budget balances.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Nov 2024 19:09:14 +0000 Gerstner calculates that raising $5 billion every two years generates $1 billion annually in management fees a https://minutesof.com/q/122a28b8-0532-4492-9a9c-7047b9933629/ https://minutesof.com/q/122a28b8-0532-4492-9a9c-7047b9933629/ “if you're on a run rate where you're raising $5,000,000,000 every two years. Okay? So give or take, that's, you know, $50,000,000,000 over a ten year period of time.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:46:51 +0000 Gerstner notes Google Cloud grew 35% year-over-year, adding $2.5 billion ARR in one quarter, equivalent to Dat https://minutesof.com/q/f5342d96-f9f8-4fb4-bb36-2d8782fe3d61/ https://minutesof.com/q/f5342d96-f9f8-4fb4-bb36-2d8782fe3d61/ “So just to put that in perspective, they added about 2,500,000,000 of new ARR in the quarter. That's like adding a Databricks in the quarter.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:46:51 +0000 Gerstner reports Masa Son said $9 trillion cumulative capex on 200 million GPUs is reasonable, possibly too sm https://minutesof.com/q/93a8a999-c2cc-4bca-94ea-c9bcdf6a2daa/ https://minutesof.com/q/93a8a999-c2cc-4bca-94ea-c9bcdf6a2daa/ “Masa at FII today said 9,000,000,000,000 of cumulative capex on 200,000,000 GPUs is very reasonable. He said, in fact, I think it may be too small.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:46:51 +0000 Gerstner observes companies can now cut tens of thousands of employees while increasing customer satisfaction, https://minutesof.com/q/98b41d86-0707-4d67-8d91-cbd20f9a1d74/ https://minutesof.com/q/98b41d86-0707-4d67-8d91-cbd20f9a1d74/ “Never have has he seen or have I seen the ability for companies to take out 10,000 people and actually see customer satisfaction scores increase.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:46:51 +0000 Gerstner says ChatGPT consumed much of his former search time, yet Google search revenues remain unaffected. https://minutesof.com/q/7ff7c4e6-2e12-4fab-9011-774217090131/ https://minutesof.com/q/7ff7c4e6-2e12-4fab-9011-774217090131/ “ChatGPT has consumed an extraordinary percentage of the time and energy that I used to spend in search.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:46:51 +0000 Gerstner says CUDA library now has over 300 industry-specific acceleration algorithms across diverse fields https://minutesof.com/q/1fe347e2-ded1-497b-92e7-06560fc62035/ https://minutesof.com/q/1fe347e2-ded1-497b-92e7-06560fc62035/ “he talked about, you know, the the the CUDA library now has over 300 industry specific acceleration algorithms. Yep. Right? Where they deeply learn the industry.” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:35:00 +0000 Gerstner reports Jensen predicts inference will scale 100x to billion-x with 40% of NVIDIA revenue already fro https://minutesof.com/q/50e70e24-1d30-4bef-bf58-58b1d0263aa5/ https://minutesof.com/q/50e70e24-1d30-4bef-bf58-58b1d0263aa5/ “he said as a consequence of that, inference is going to a 100 x, thousand x, a million x, maybe even a billion x.” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:35:00 +0000 Gerstner says Jensen confirmed GPU clusters are already at 200-300k scale and will reach 500k to 1 million https://minutesof.com/q/0442e975-6387-46e1-861e-c0e1580fb267/ https://minutesof.com/q/0442e975-6387-46e1-861e-c0e1580fb267/ “I said, are we already at the phase of two and three hundred thousand cluster scale? And he said, yes. And then I said, and will we go to 500,000 a million?” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:35:00 +0000 Gerstner says OpenAI's voice API can call humans on the telephone and place orders https://minutesof.com/q/5e29d35c-d592-4958-9a4d-84ce8bdb4e52/ https://minutesof.com/q/5e29d35c-d592-4958-9a4d-84ce8bdb4e52/ “Well, I mean, the Easter egg that I thought got dropped last week is they did this event on, you know, their voice API. Right?” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:35:00 +0000 Gerstner says Jensen claims NVIDIA can scale business 2-3x while increasing headcount only 20-25% using AI age https://minutesof.com/q/67836a02-9d95-4aca-8a2b-a57fb34df90b/ https://minutesof.com/q/67836a02-9d95-4aca-8a2b-a57fb34df90b/ “This idea that Jensen can scale the business two or three times with, you know, increasing the headcount by, you know, 20 or 25%. Right?” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:35:00 +0000 Gerstner notes NVIDIA's 2023 revenue was $60B versus analyst forecasts of $26B in January 2023. https://minutesof.com/q/c3e07797-00df-4f95-a71a-e0f1938003fd/ https://minutesof.com/q/c3e07797-00df-4f95-a71a-e0f1938003fd/ “The forecast for Nvidia at that dinner in January 2023 was that you would do 26,000,000,000 of revenue for the year 2023. You did 60,000,000,000, right?” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:30:00 +0000 Gerstner says OpenAI will do $5B revenue this year, $10B next, twice Google's IPO revenue. https://minutesof.com/q/30a597fe-2d94-4004-be8e-d971422d7cda/ https://minutesof.com/q/30a597fe-2d94-4004-be8e-d971422d7cda/ “Reports are that they'll do 5,000,000,000 ish of revenue or run rate revenue this year, maybe going to 10,000,000,000 next year.” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:30:00 +0000 Gerstner says OpenAI has twice Google's IPO user count and trades at 15x forward revenue. https://minutesof.com/q/5c48c817-77e3-4f85-bd41-b5ef717ca95b/ https://minutesof.com/q/5c48c817-77e3-4f85-bd41-b5ef717ca95b/ “average users, which we estimate is twice the amount Google had at the time of its And if you look at the multiple of the business, if you believe 10,000,000,000 next year it's about 15 times the forward revenue, which is about the multiple of Google and Meta at the time of their IPO.” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:30:00 +0000 Gerstner says NVIDIA generates $4M revenue and $2M profit per employee, unprecedented efficiency. https://minutesof.com/q/121cbd15-7ce3-45ce-ab6d-b26e12ea4c00/ https://minutesof.com/q/121cbd15-7ce3-45ce-ab6d-b26e12ea4c00/ “You know NVIDIA is in a league of its own really, know, at about 4,000,000 of revenue per employee, about 2,000,000 of profits or free cash flow per employee.” — BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:30:00 +0000 Gerstner says GDP was flat for 1800 years then went parabolic after 1800. https://minutesof.com/q/721f803c-9c47-41cc-8a7d-7bf5b6a9d9cd/ https://minutesof.com/q/721f803c-9c47-41cc-8a7d-7bf5b6a9d9cd/ “Eighteen hundred years, okay? Almost zero growth in GDP. And then just after the year 1800, you have this parabolic move in global GDP.” — Summit Tue, 01 Oct 2024 18:01:32 +0000 Gerstner claims 99% of humans who ever lived never saw a single invention. https://minutesof.com/q/fa5c49c7-b5a7-4526-9219-dc8c450ce0aa/ https://minutesof.com/q/fa5c49c7-b5a7-4526-9219-dc8c450ce0aa/ “99 of them never saw a single invention in their entire life. Their entire life, right, was about survival.” — Summit Tue, 01 Oct 2024 18:01:32 +0000 Gerstner says US GDP per capita is 100x Nicaragua's today versus equal 100 years ago. https://minutesof.com/q/9d6d7990-c199-4dc4-8fa5-e27d4c52bca4/ https://minutesof.com/q/9d6d7990-c199-4dc4-8fa5-e27d4c52bca4/ “The today, the GDP per capita of The United States to Nicaragua is a 100 x. Why? Right? We're living at a time where I think there's a lot of controversy about capitalism.” — Summit Tue, 01 Oct 2024 18:01:32 +0000 Gerstner proposes every child born gets a $1000 Invest America account in S&P 500. https://minutesof.com/q/ec8bc5b1-b003-4010-96a9-274edf2690d5/ https://minutesof.com/q/ec8bc5b1-b003-4010-96a9-274edf2690d5/ “So every child born, 3,700,000 children born in this country a year, they all get a thousand dollar investment account invested in the S and P 500.” — Summit Tue, 01 Oct 2024 18:01:32 +0000 Gerstner says Invest America accounts compound to $175k at 30 and $1M at 50. https://minutesof.com/q/e1b9e3f2-f289-49c3-b7d2-26858c2fe86a/ https://minutesof.com/q/e1b9e3f2-f289-49c3-b7d2-26858c2fe86a/ “At 30, you have $175,000. And at 50, you have a million dollars. But most importantly, your entire life, you have hope. Right? Your entire life, we tackle the problem of hopelessness in this country.” — Summit Tue, 01 Oct 2024 18:01:32 +0000 Gerstner links job loss fears from AI to anti-immigration sentiment as predictable response. https://minutesof.com/q/3295cb35-7c3b-431a-9569-32e383ab284d/ https://minutesof.com/q/3295cb35-7c3b-431a-9569-32e383ab284d/ “You're a driver, you lose your job to autonomous driving. You know, go through the list, and we're gonna see a lot of this. Right?” — Summit Tue, 01 Oct 2024 18:01:32 +0000 Gerstner reports Oracle, Amazon, and Microsoft are all moving forward with nuclear-powered data center project https://minutesof.com/q/a2662d7b-fc56-4e1f-a2a2-3f0111e20029/ https://minutesof.com/q/a2662d7b-fc56-4e1f-a2a2-3f0111e20029/ “Amazon is buying this nuclear powered Talon data center facility, and now Microsoft this week announces with CEG that they're going to bring 3 Mile Island out of retirement.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 25 Sep 2024 16:21:38 +0000 Gerstner cites Morgan Stanley forecasting carbon offset spending rising from $2 billion to $100 billion by 203 https://minutesof.com/q/0bf3507f-9deb-4dce-a5e2-5e9d21d5e7a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/0bf3507f-9deb-4dce-a5e2-5e9d21d5e7a3/ “In 2020, Morgan Stanley estimates that about $2,000,000,000 was spent on the carbon offset market, and by 2030 they expect that to be $100,000,000,000 by these large hyperscalers that have to buy these massive carbon offsets.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 25 Sep 2024 16:21:38 +0000 Gerstner calculates OpenAI's rumored $150 billion valuation represents 15 times forward revenue of roughly $10 https://minutesof.com/q/1f8a7996-6ead-45e9-9649-8e8c27acd7c8/ https://minutesof.com/q/1f8a7996-6ead-45e9-9649-8e8c27acd7c8/ “If that trajectory were to continue, right, that'd give you like roughly $10,000,000,000 next year. And the round's rumored to be at $150,000,000,000 so that's about 15 times forward revenue.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 25 Sep 2024 16:21:38 +0000 Gerstner argues venture capital remains at $300 billion pre-COVID levels, claiming the market hasn't actually https://minutesof.com/q/fcb63ac7-5520-4b3b-88d0-3354bc896853/ https://minutesof.com/q/fcb63ac7-5520-4b3b-88d0-3354bc896853/ “And so while we call all of this venture, Bill, one of the big differences I have here, and I've said many times, is that the venture market really hasn't grown that much.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 25 Sep 2024 16:21:38 +0000 Gerstner frames NVIDIA debate as 6 million GPUs versus bearish 4.5 million estimate for next year. https://minutesof.com/q/c9e9c5c6-42df-435e-951f-17dba05285f1/ https://minutesof.com/q/c9e9c5c6-42df-435e-951f-17dba05285f1/ “We're kind of at 6,000,000 GPUs for next year. The bearish people are at like 4,500,000. The numbers will ultimately tell.” — BG2 Pod Wed, 25 Sep 2024 16:21:38 +0000 Gerstner argues US can address nuclear cost problems through regulatory consolidation and clustered reactor co https://minutesof.com/q/8da10156-cdab-417d-a096-e4612c67b49a/ https://minutesof.com/q/8da10156-cdab-417d-a096-e4612c67b49a/ “It seems to me the first two, right, we can tackle, right? You can consolidate the regulatory environment in The United States so that you reduce the time to bring one of these things online and I also think that if you clustered some of these, if we wanted to get back to building more of these reactors” — BG2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:12:29 +0000 Gerstner warns low-cost power enables larger AI infrastructure, creating strategic risk if China leads nuclear https://minutesof.com/q/cd556f3c-4872-4253-8bb4-91036179bc61/ https://minutesof.com/q/cd556f3c-4872-4253-8bb4-91036179bc61/ “Because if you are the low cost power provider in the world, right, then you're going to be able to build bigger data centers that power bigger AI clusters, etcetera.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:12:29 +0000 Gerstner proposes dedicating individual nuclear reactors at Diablo to major tech companies for their data cent https://minutesof.com/q/87f2bdd7-b1c0-4af8-836a-2b8fcf3ab06b/ https://minutesof.com/q/87f2bdd7-b1c0-4af8-836a-2b8fcf3ab06b/ “I could imagine if you had four more reactors sitting here, right, if you could land them at the right price, you could have one reactor for Meta, one for Amazon, one for Microsoft, one for Nvidia, you could have the data center sitting right next to them.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 09 Sep 2024 02:12:29 +0000 Gerstner notes stocks are up 60% in six quarters since Q1 2023 when ChatGPT launched. https://minutesof.com/q/0e4d9100-3202-4724-8e74-9b49f4d300f4/ https://minutesof.com/q/0e4d9100-3202-4724-8e74-9b49f4d300f4/ “So that's just six quarters ago. Right after chat GPT hit the screens, you know, stocks are up 60%.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 09 Aug 2024 00:27:40 +0000 Gerstner estimates Trump tax cuts contributed 20% of S&P 500 gains and their expiration would be a headwind. https://minutesof.com/q/796abca2-3284-4b82-a1f0-cc4a5c76b512/ https://minutesof.com/q/796abca2-3284-4b82-a1f0-cc4a5c76b512/ “some people have estimated that the tax decreases from the Trump tax cuts contributed to about 20% of the gains in the S and P 500.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 09 Aug 2024 00:27:40 +0000 Gerstner says big four tech companies will spend $220 billion on capex this year. https://minutesof.com/q/aa553c92-c6b1-45b0-a73e-623c8d712a85/ https://minutesof.com/q/aa553c92-c6b1-45b0-a73e-623c8d712a85/ “if you look at the big four, they're gonna spend $220,000,000,000 this year on CapEx.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 09 Aug 2024 00:27:40 +0000 Gerstner argues this would be the first major technology phase shift with capex and revenues perfectly aligned https://minutesof.com/q/54b90048-1d13-4b23-ba66-674d4e8fa462/ https://minutesof.com/q/54b90048-1d13-4b23-ba66-674d4e8fa462/ “the idea that we're going to go through this phase shift with CapEx and revenues perfectly aligned and perfectly matched, right?” — BG2 Pod Fri, 09 Aug 2024 00:27:40 +0000 Gerstner doubts ChatGPT and SearchGPT metrics will support reaching a billion users. https://minutesof.com/q/0d63766e-8ba9-4b83-b3f3-6415b1638081/ https://minutesof.com/q/0d63766e-8ba9-4b83-b3f3-6415b1638081/ “I don't think we're seeing the metrics, you know, from ChatGPT and even SearchGPT that are going to lead to the breakout needed to get to that billion users.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 09 Aug 2024 00:27:40 +0000 Gerstner argues taxing unrealized gains would require forced liquidity and create situations where people pay https://minutesof.com/q/dbda1a9f-e81f-46b0-b240-b7216a3ce309/ https://minutesof.com/q/dbda1a9f-e81f-46b0-b240-b7216a3ce309/ “And then the third point, which you just mentioned, there would be numerous situations where you'd have people pay a tax and then the valuations would collapse.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:00:00 +0000 Gerstner notes government is spending $42 billion on rural broadband despite Starlink already providing perfec https://minutesof.com/q/87d4e63f-c07a-4fd7-b8cc-1cd2e1370dc5/ https://minutesof.com/q/87d4e63f-c07a-4fd7-b8cc-1cd2e1370dc5/ “So anyway, they decided they were going to spend 42,000,000,000 on rural broadband. And between ten years ago and now, Starlink's been built.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:00:00 +0000 Gerstner identifies a fifteen-year trend of top tech companies using open source strategically as a defensive https://minutesof.com/q/4e696c7f-d232-4deb-a5ab-b014743bbec6/ https://minutesof.com/q/4e696c7f-d232-4deb-a5ab-b014743bbec6/ “And Google convinced the rest of the world, all the handset manufacturers, the carriers to support this model by telling them it was going be open.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:00:00 +0000 And and I playing around with credit card data, I think OpenAI is about 2,000,000,000, Anthropix about a 100,0 https://minutesof.com/q/95315ca6-40fe-46c4-a341-afb87b579103/ https://minutesof.com/q/95315ca6-40fe-46c4-a341-afb87b579103/ “And and I playing around with credit card data, I think OpenAI is about 2,000,000,000, Anthropix about a 100,000,000, and Perplexity is at like 25,000,000. Yeah. Just I'm guessing” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:00:00 +0000 Gerstner reveals OpenAI has only 35% retention at twelve months, questioning the durability of its business mo https://minutesof.com/q/cdc3137b-46bc-4f2f-b806-0027eff1d1ce/ https://minutesof.com/q/cdc3137b-46bc-4f2f-b806-0027eff1d1ce/ “But at twelve months, the retention even in OpenAI is like 35%. So I doubt that anyone that is looking at that even at 2,000,000,000 feels great about that as a durable business model.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:00:00 +0000 Gerstner states lockdowns achieved nothing according to excess death data and lost generations of kids from sc https://minutesof.com/q/9997042f-11f7-434d-9294-5ea72a223b2c/ https://minutesof.com/q/9997042f-11f7-434d-9294-5ea72a223b2c/ “I think most people believe there were consequences to lockdowns definitely with kids. Yes. Lost generations of kids from school.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:00:00 +0000 Semiconductors and semi stocks have driven most of the net selling during these months, and overall hedge fund https://minutesof.com/q/0a9a804e-dd7a-47a3-8063-b013a3accf3b/ https://minutesof.com/q/0a9a804e-dd7a-47a3-8063-b013a3accf3b/ “Semiconductors and semi stocks have driven most of the net selling during these months, and overall hedge funds are more underweight growth than at any point Morgan Stanley has seen in the last ten years.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:24:05 +0000 Gerstner says earnings are up 38% for major tech companies while the other 495 S&P stocks are down 5%. https://minutesof.com/q/18f74001-1861-45d9-a92b-20e36c386c0c/ https://minutesof.com/q/18f74001-1861-45d9-a92b-20e36c386c0c/ “And if you look at if you take out those tech stocks, the other 495 earnings are actually down 5%.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:24:05 +0000 Gerstner says Altimeter's peak exposure to major tech stocks was 70% and they've taken almost half off. https://minutesof.com/q/d7721d0c-2f3e-4e1e-83eb-598f6bf6d209/ https://minutesof.com/q/d7721d0c-2f3e-4e1e-83eb-598f6bf6d209/ “Altimeter's peak exposure to these names was about 70% over the course of the last twelve months. So we had 70% of our dollars at one point in time in these names.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:24:05 +0000 Gerstner argues Amazon spent over $100 billion on AWS for eight years before profitability, paralleling AI inv https://minutesof.com/q/0818b7a9-f534-4cb5-9037-b7de373c9007/ https://minutesof.com/q/0818b7a9-f534-4cb5-9037-b7de373c9007/ “Amazon spent over a $100,000,000,000 on AWS, invested for over eight years before they saw profitability in that business.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:24:05 +0000 Gerstner says five times as many women die of heart attacks annually as breast cancer in America. https://minutesof.com/q/7685a08f-c03c-4c72-a889-3297197410d6/ https://minutesof.com/q/7685a08f-c03c-4c72-a889-3297197410d6/ “Five times as many women die of a heart attack each year in this country as die of breast cancer.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:24:05 +0000 Gerstner argues AI wave differs from internet era because hyperscalers are deploying massive capex directly, n https://minutesof.com/q/71831442-3ca1-433c-bb54-4260edd5816d/ https://minutesof.com/q/71831442-3ca1-433c-bb54-4260edd5816d/ “because all AI tools are being delivered as a service in the cloud, there's just a massive amount of CapEx happening.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 Gerstner notes Satya called AI a supply-driven wave with much experimental work, creating reset risk. https://minutesof.com/q/9c92f33c-5ad1-45b6-ad4f-a24358c590e0/ https://minutesof.com/q/9c92f33c-5ad1-45b6-ad4f-a24358c590e0/ “Satya very quickly said this is a supply driven wave. And I think up to date, that is true. We're we're building ahead of demand.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 Gerstner reports Coatue's Philippe suggested companies now need $10 billion market cap to go public. https://minutesof.com/q/ad05aa01-329b-4eaf-87b8-c6750a7cbd71/ https://minutesof.com/q/ad05aa01-329b-4eaf-87b8-c6750a7cbd71/ “he implied you tell me if I got this wrong. He implied that in the modern era, you need to be $10,000,000,000 to go public. Yeah. Market cap. Yes.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 Gerstner estimates OpenAI's consumer business represents $2.1 billion of roughly $3-4 billion total revenue. https://minutesof.com/q/edee5ce6-f851-4261-8b67-186bd741c93c/ https://minutesof.com/q/edee5ce6-f851-4261-8b67-186bd741c93c/ “It would imply that there are about 2.1 of the three four is the consumer business” — BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 Gerstner reports OpenAI consumer product has 65% annual churn rate based on credit card data. https://minutesof.com/q/250854f5-f93f-4259-a16a-85e6841f5cf6/ https://minutesof.com/q/250854f5-f93f-4259-a16a-85e6841f5cf6/ “At least for the cohorts that are old enough, the churn's about 65% annually. So they're only 35% retaining, which Sax had hinted at on all in.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 Gerstner calls Elon Musk's Tesla compensation package the most shareholder-aligned CEO pay structure he has se https://minutesof.com/q/0e7e4e96-cd0a-4cb5-92b7-29068fa89275/ https://minutesof.com/q/0e7e4e96-cd0a-4cb5-92b7-29068fa89275/ “the Elon package is the most shareholder aligned comp CEO compensation package I've ever seen. I would be thrilled if all of my hired CEOs had a very similar package. Right. I'd be thrilled.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 Gerstner reports Netflix board member said company considering compensation changes due to ISS pressure despit https://minutesof.com/q/e0d8fb44-a7d5-4bc3-a646-ba9483275bc8/ https://minutesof.com/q/e0d8fb44-a7d5-4bc3-a646-ba9483275bc8/ “one of their board members said, well, they're they are even considering change because ISF won't leave them alone. And it's just it's horrific.” — BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 Gerstner details Altimeter's Google trades: owned from $90 to $120, re-entered at $130 after a pullback. https://minutesof.com/q/f11c00d6-1df5-4555-b909-27647f132c17/ https://minutesof.com/q/f11c00d6-1df5-4555-b909-27647f132c17/ “we own the stock last year from $90 a share up to over a $120 a share. We thought it got a little bit ahead of itself.” — CNBC Television Tue, 11 Jun 2024 17:21:48 +0000 Gerstner argues users are shifting from Google's ten blue links to ChatGPT, Claude, and Apple Intelligence. https://minutesof.com/q/65850684-3493-44a7-9305-0fc448d2107c/ https://minutesof.com/q/65850684-3493-44a7-9305-0fc448d2107c/ “Because people are going to turn to Apple Intelligence instead of 10 blue links to find answers to the questions they have.” — CNBC Television Tue, 11 Jun 2024 17:21:48 +0000 Gerstner asserts Google lost its dominance in the AI era despite dominating traditional search. https://minutesof.com/q/a94d9ba3-2eb9-447f-8a3f-11ede0b973ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/a94d9ba3-2eb9-447f-8a3f-11ede0b973ed/ “They were dominant in 10 blue links. They are not dominant in this. There are a lot of other players in the age of” — CNBC Television Tue, 11 Jun 2024 17:21:48 +0000 Gerstner praises Jassy's efficiency focus at Amazon retail, expects margin expansion as investment thesis. https://minutesof.com/q/2bf1de93-3be6-45eb-a95c-900e0809de32/ https://minutesof.com/q/2bf1de93-3be6-45eb-a95c-900e0809de32/ “Why are we in Amazon? Because we think the retail businesses margins are gonna go up. Jassy has absolutely found religion.” — CNBC Television Tue, 11 Jun 2024 17:21:48 +0000 Gerstner identifies AWS disadvantage risk if Microsoft's OpenAI access proves decisive and Amazon lacks equiva https://minutesof.com/q/ccd2dc2d-6afd-4b1d-bbe1-89a0c177ae35/ https://minutesof.com/q/ccd2dc2d-6afd-4b1d-bbe1-89a0c177ae35/ “I think there is a lot of worry about, you know, if Microsoft has access to OpenAI and Amazon doesn't, is that going to put them at a disadvantage if open AI is a runaway winner?” — CNBC Television Tue, 11 Jun 2024 17:21:48 +0000 Gerstner says only 5% of Apple users can access Apple intelligence, requiring device upgrades. https://minutesof.com/q/49f3bd42-a418-45c6-b4ad-2627a5ac1901/ https://minutesof.com/q/49f3bd42-a418-45c6-b4ad-2627a5ac1901/ “only 5% of Apple users today can access Apple intelligence. So they're going to have to upgrade these devices in order to play.” — CNBC Television Tue, 11 Jun 2024 16:52:46 +0000 Gerstner suspects OpenAI's integration with Apple is deeper than publicly disclosed, creating unequal competit https://minutesof.com/q/9a857d55-bbd4-4f3d-a5e3-41ebd1d837a9/ https://minutesof.com/q/9a857d55-bbd4-4f3d-a5e3-41ebd1d837a9/ “I suspect that the integration going on with OpenAI is deeper than what we heard about yesterday. Right? So I don't know that this is going to be everybody playing equal.” — CNBC Television Tue, 11 Jun 2024 16:52:46 +0000 Gerstner states consensus Nvidia estimate for next year is around $3.50 per share. https://minutesof.com/q/f70986f0-c308-4c5a-82aa-e98a6a3d3ce8/ https://minutesof.com/q/f70986f0-c308-4c5a-82aa-e98a6a3d3ce8/ “the consensus estimate for next year for Nvidia, I think is around $3.50 per share.” — CNBC Television Tue, 11 Jun 2024 16:52:46 +0000 Gerstner's Nvidia estimate is closer to $5 per share, ahead of consensus since fall 2022. https://minutesof.com/q/75cf64ae-892b-4b95-8187-a5ea949de724/ https://minutesof.com/q/75cf64ae-892b-4b95-8187-a5ea949de724/ “we're we're closer to $5 a share. We've been ahead of the consensus estimate since the fall of twenty two.” — CNBC Television Tue, 11 Jun 2024 16:52:46 +0000 Gerstner says AI customers must place orders five years in advance and secure power and data centers. https://minutesof.com/q/86a9f483-87af-4eaa-bc23-de3775a5647e/ https://minutesof.com/q/86a9f483-87af-4eaa-bc23-de3775a5647e/ “they have to place orders five years in advance for these products. They have to go find power. They have to find data centers” — CNBC Television Tue, 11 Jun 2024 16:52:46 +0000 Gerstner says his hedge fund is running 60% net long exposure despite bullish AI view. https://minutesof.com/q/6118b905-7668-440d-a17b-7da597a4960c/ https://minutesof.com/q/6118b905-7668-440d-a17b-7da597a4960c/ “Our net exposures are 60%. What does that mean again? Reminder for folks at home. That means I have six out of ten dollars at risk” — CNBC Television Tue, 11 Jun 2024 16:52:46 +0000 Gerstner argues excess capital distorts company behavior and makes it difficult to stay efficient when all opt https://minutesof.com/q/f99072f3-6a6d-4f86-9471-605a490a434e/ https://minutesof.com/q/f99072f3-6a6d-4f86-9471-605a490a434e/ “It's not impossible, but it's very difficult to stay fit and efficient when you have a buffet of all options sitting in front of you and you can fund all of them.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 13:40:00 +0000 Gerstner notes AI funding in 2023 was $28 billion over 700 deals, with 65% going to five or six companies. https://minutesof.com/q/fc2bff2a-fcc3-45d7-8136-ccb6a8b7a20c/ https://minutesof.com/q/fc2bff2a-fcc3-45d7-8136-ccb6a8b7a20c/ “I think AI funding in twenty twenty three, four x, you know, 28,000,000,000 and over 700 deals.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 13:40:00 +0000 Gerstner says hyperscalers' total capex is now at $200 billion, raising questions about return on investment. https://minutesof.com/q/c6673b2c-4f7d-4be3-a26b-32b0ca5b9b66/ https://minutesof.com/q/c6673b2c-4f7d-4be3-a26b-32b0ca5b9b66/ “In fact, I think if people are gonna be critical of anything, a lot of people are looking at the total CapEx of the hyperscalers now at $200,000,000,000 and saying, when are you gonna get a return on the dollars that you're spending?” — BG2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 13:40:00 +0000 Gerstner explains enterprise software spending slowdown is due to uncertainty about AI's impact on existing pl https://minutesof.com/q/d79b2d92-6d41-4f8b-833f-23654351dc57/ https://minutesof.com/q/d79b2d92-6d41-4f8b-833f-23654351dc57/ “Then one thing you didn't point out is when people have questions, like, about the future, which they do around AI.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 13:40:00 +0000 Gerstner predicts software acceleration will begin in Q3-Q4 2024, proving AI is an accelerant rather than a th https://minutesof.com/q/df5258ce-6d71-463c-aa36-a0995c2fb5bf/ https://minutesof.com/q/df5258ce-6d71-463c-aa36-a0995c2fb5bf/ “And when that happens, people will say, oh, no. Software's not dead. It in fact is an accelerant, but it's not gonna be equally good for all companies.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 13:40:00 +0000 Gerstner says GPT-4o is first model to process voice, text, and vision in single neural net like humans. https://minutesof.com/q/7ace3e7f-d36e-4e49-9d3e-c2f2767593af/ https://minutesof.com/q/7ace3e7f-d36e-4e49-9d3e-c2f2767593af/ “This is the first time that we really have a model that reasons across voice, text, and vision in a single model. You know, it's processing all three modalities in a single neural net.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 16 May 2024 19:31:21 +0000 Gerstner estimates Apple needs 75 gigs of DRAM on phones to run 7B on-device models. https://minutesof.com/q/4c94cf62-8cc0-4ef5-9679-00a68b01f29c/ https://minutesof.com/q/4c94cf62-8cc0-4ef5-9679-00a68b01f29c/ “I think the question that Apple's probably struggling with, Bill, is in order to do that, even a 7B model, you probably have to have, you know, 75 gigs of DRAM on your phone, right?” — BG2 Pod Thu, 16 May 2024 19:31:21 +0000 Gerstner reports data company lamenting OpenAI sets pricing umbrella with no margin floor for models. https://minutesof.com/q/c2f9d545-8281-4e09-b16c-ee9b76e58258/ https://minutesof.com/q/c2f9d545-8281-4e09-b16c-ee9b76e58258/ “I was talking to a large data company this week who's in the business of serving models, they were lamenting the fact that the pricing umbrella was set by OpenAI and there is no price, right? So that it's a much lower margin business than the traditional software business.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 16 May 2024 19:31:21 +0000 Gerstner predicts BPO companies face disruption as voice and video modalities threaten their core business. https://minutesof.com/q/24f97ec7-6724-4dfe-b63e-5092ace9cb23/ https://minutesof.com/q/24f97ec7-6724-4dfe-b63e-5092ace9cb23/ “BPO companies woke up yesterday and they're like oh my god, this is about voice, this is about call centers, this is about video in, this is about you know?” — BG2 Pod Thu, 16 May 2024 19:31:21 +0000 Gerstner warns Nasdaq at all-time high amid slowing economy, light earnings, and AI disruption. https://minutesof.com/q/3f5e9eaf-2c7f-48f8-b0bc-58f4e721ceb3/ https://minutesof.com/q/3f5e9eaf-2c7f-48f8-b0bc-58f4e721ceb3/ “And the backdrop is that the economy is slowing, earnings are coming in lighter than people expected, and AI is creating more disruption, creating more uncertainty than we expected.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 16 May 2024 19:31:21 +0000 Gerstner says Microsoft and NVIDIA remain relatively safe investments for AI exposure amid uncertainty. https://minutesof.com/q/c8f4b361-ea0f-4d50-9bd0-c71b55caed21/ https://minutesof.com/q/c8f4b361-ea0f-4d50-9bd0-c71b55caed21/ “I think that if you're an investor, owning some of the companies that you think you're really confident are going to continue to compound and benefit from AI, the Microsofts of the world, the Nvidias of the world, seems to me like a relatively safe place.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 16 May 2024 19:31:21 +0000 Gerstner identifies four ingredients to compete in AI: capital at $40B/year, data scaling, compute infrastruct https://minutesof.com/q/95328126-a772-45b7-bfb4-88470ae2d513/ https://minutesof.com/q/95328126-a772-45b7-bfb4-88470ae2d513/ “I think there are four important ingredients to compete in this market. Number one, you have to have capital, and the leaders are spending $40,000,000,000 a year.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 29 Apr 2024 21:09:39 +0000 In two years, that company has gone from $22,000,000,000 in net income to $55,000,000,000 in net income. They' https://minutesof.com/q/b7fd7c09-01f2-4d6c-8773-9ce75f450166/ https://minutesof.com/q/b7fd7c09-01f2-4d6c-8773-9ce75f450166/ “In two years, that company has gone from $22,000,000,000 in net income to $55,000,000,000 in net income. They've reduced their headcount from 85,000 people to 69,000 people.” — BG2 Pod Mon, 29 Apr 2024 21:09:39 +0000 He said to me, the IPO market is slow in volume terms for lack of supply, not lack of demand. And I've been ma https://minutesof.com/q/ec7e294c-a1fa-4fb3-97ad-186c8e426eb9/ https://minutesof.com/q/ec7e294c-a1fa-4fb3-97ad-186c8e426eb9/ “He said to me, the IPO market is slow in volume terms for lack of supply, not lack of demand. And I've been making this case that the IPO window is wide open.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 18 Apr 2024 17:23:12 +0000 Gerstner identifies deep private capital from sovereign wealth funds as structural change preventing companies https://minutesof.com/q/f0838d80-6cc8-4b07-85a4-e11807183173/ https://minutesof.com/q/f0838d80-6cc8-4b07-85a4-e11807183173/ “And if you look at the private market alternatives for them for capital, we didn't have sovereign wealth funds that were writing multi billion dollar checks at that point in time.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 18 Apr 2024 17:23:12 +0000 Gerstner proposes three investment categories instead of two: venture under $100M revenue, quasi-public over $ https://minutesof.com/q/90a4e6b7-ccbe-458d-a2b7-6dc68fe1759a/ https://minutesof.com/q/90a4e6b7-ccbe-458d-a2b7-6dc68fe1759a/ “One thing that we have done and I've encouraged LPs like endowments to think about is we used to have these two buckets. Right? Venture and public when I talk to technology investors.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 18 Apr 2024 17:23:12 +0000 Gerstner estimates robotaxi revenue per car drops from $140K to $100K due to increased supply lowering prices https://minutesof.com/q/ea7bebeb-7121-42d2-a106-d1176445a9de/ https://minutesof.com/q/ea7bebeb-7121-42d2-a106-d1176445a9de/ “When you do that in self driving, we think it goes down to about a 100,000. Why? Well, you have actually more rides in the self driven car.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 18 Apr 2024 17:23:12 +0000 Gerstner reports major tech CEO plans 50% revenue growth with 10-20% personnel cost reduction over three years https://minutesof.com/q/ec8d31db-299c-4f2a-a458-c3267d55079e/ https://minutesof.com/q/ec8d31db-299c-4f2a-a458-c3267d55079e/ “And he said, over the course of the next three years, we'll grow our top line 50%, and we'll reduce our personnel costs by 10 to 20%.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 18 Apr 2024 17:23:12 +0000 Gerstner argues people would be more excited about nuclear fission if discovered today than they are about AI. https://minutesof.com/q/e65dfe02-6235-480d-a213-595870a5af7c/ https://minutesof.com/q/e65dfe02-6235-480d-a213-595870a5af7c/ “if World War II never happened, the atomic bomb never happened, and someone just showed up in 2024 and said, I figured out this thing, it's nuclear fission, people would be like, oh my god, like, probably be more excited than you are about AI.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 04 Apr 2024 17:20:29 +0000 Gerstner states US nuclear deployment costs are limited by regulation, not technology, creating gap with China https://minutesof.com/q/7e46492e-e6e1-4b80-b3d1-badf506f93ee/ https://minutesof.com/q/7e46492e-e6e1-4b80-b3d1-badf506f93ee/ “our cost of deploying new nuclear fission infrastructure is limited by our own regulatory framework, not by the technology.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 04 Apr 2024 17:20:29 +0000 Gerstner warns data centers acquiring independent energy producers could trigger regulatory intervention on gr https://minutesof.com/q/8b67f38c-a28b-4381-aeab-898c9b743dfe/ https://minutesof.com/q/8b67f38c-a28b-4381-aeab-898c9b743dfe/ “if you start to see data centers pick off the independents, that could put pressure on the grid in a way that might bring the regulators in to voice their opinion.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 04 Apr 2024 17:20:29 +0000 Gerstner describes recent AI startup fast failures including Inflection, noting venture returns are now off th https://minutesof.com/q/4908cf37-1898-4680-9fca-46f8d8ccc63b/ https://minutesof.com/q/4908cf37-1898-4680-9fca-46f8d8ccc63b/ “So, we've had what I call these fast failures. You might maybe the inflection team will get their money back, but that's not what Venture is about.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 04 Apr 2024 17:20:29 +0000 Gerstner notes Perplexity reversed position on advertising despite previously opposing it, signaling business https://minutesof.com/q/ed0d95b4-5500-4a83-bb07-06eadf95dd0d/ https://minutesof.com/q/ed0d95b4-5500-4a83-bb07-06eadf95dd0d/ “Perplexity came out and said that they were, you know, considering advertising and they there were statements in their previous releases that were very negative on advertising.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 04 Apr 2024 17:20:29 +0000 Gerstner reports some AI models are already priced below cost due to hyper-competitive market dynamics. https://minutesof.com/q/d5c0f9f2-b446-446d-930c-8ba4108784f0/ https://minutesof.com/q/d5c0f9f2-b446-446d-930c-8ba4108784f0/ “the second thing people said was that the runtime models are just highly competitive and many people think that some of the models are already priced under cost, which goes back to the credit investment theme that you and I have talked about.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 04 Apr 2024 17:20:29 +0000 Gerstner says Google offers AI engineers $500K cash plus $1.5M in monthly-vesting RSUs, totaling millions annu https://minutesof.com/q/ad39ff58-d36d-43f2-a037-8a2259886766/ https://minutesof.com/q/ad39ff58-d36d-43f2-a037-8a2259886766/ “Okay? But instead of cash, for example, Google's offering 500,000 in cash plus a million and $0.5 in RSUs vesting monthly, right, to these engineers.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Mar 2024 21:32:49 +0000 Gerstner says AI has become the leading edge of sovereign battles, making TikTok's status quo path inconceivab https://minutesof.com/q/259fa1a3-a282-47b8-acd4-74c5d3051d30/ https://minutesof.com/q/259fa1a3-a282-47b8-acd4-74c5d3051d30/ “So given that, I think it's almost inconceivable for me now to see how TikTok US has a path forward under kind of the status quo.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Mar 2024 21:32:49 +0000 Gerstner says we're entering a global AI cold war on the economic front, which he doesn't celebrate. https://minutesof.com/q/88632d02-f742-4d27-ad56-a6ffff61bb67/ https://minutesof.com/q/88632d02-f742-4d27-ad56-a6ffff61bb67/ “So I don't celebrate that we're entering what appears to be a global AI cold war Yeah. On the economic front.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Mar 2024 21:32:49 +0000 Gerstner explains that ARR (annual recurring revenue) gets high multiples because it's predictable like cable https://minutesof.com/q/bf18b9e3-70e1-4349-8cd1-986feb0867c2/ https://minutesof.com/q/bf18b9e3-70e1-4349-8cd1-986feb0867c2/ “ARR stands for annual recurring revenue. And recurring revenue, like a monopoly cable subscription, gets a really high multiple. That's why softwares have gotten high multiples. They're very predictable.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Mar 2024 21:32:49 +0000 I mean, Satya talks about all the vast value capture occurs in the two to three year period around phase shift https://minutesof.com/q/e7f08faa-a8fa-4f32-b2d0-407022d7cf65/ https://minutesof.com/q/e7f08faa-a8fa-4f32-b2d0-407022d7cf65/ “I mean, Satya talks about all the vast value capture occurs in the two to three year period around phase shifts. But it's hard to forecast in this those moments.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:29:00 +0000 Gerstner says NVIDIA EPS was forecast at $5.70 but ended up at $25, far exceeding expectations. https://minutesof.com/q/38b29e1c-3a61-4adf-aacc-fe77f8b01aab/ https://minutesof.com/q/38b29e1c-3a61-4adf-aacc-fe77f8b01aab/ “The EPS at the beginning of last year, the earnings per share was expected to be $5.70, and now it looks like it's gonna be $25.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:29:00 +0000 Gerstner explains Tesla's new FSD model uses driver behavior as the label, not deterministic code for stopligh https://minutesof.com/q/3a576b4c-d7a7-44d8-b9d8-f04401152db1/ https://minutesof.com/q/3a576b4c-d7a7-44d8-b9d8-f04401152db1/ “Now in this new model, it's pixels in. So the model itself has no code. It doesn't know this is a stoplight per se. In fact, they just watched the driver's behavior.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:29:00 +0000 Gerstner notes Tesla has 7% FSD penetration at $12,000 per customer, with mixed reviews before version 12. https://minutesof.com/q/fb5294d2-76c1-4b95-8e58-4cddfd70d75b/ https://minutesof.com/q/fb5294d2-76c1-4b95-8e58-4cddfd70d75b/ “If you look at it today, they have about 7% penetration of s FSD. That was, let's call it, through FSD 11, and those people paid $12,000 incrementally for that FSD.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:29:00 +0000 Gerstner models Tesla FSD penetration rising from 7% to 20% at $500 monthly maintaining contribution margin de https://minutesof.com/q/d055430b-ac5c-4e0c-b804-af7d28d50882/ https://minutesof.com/q/d055430b-ac5c-4e0c-b804-af7d28d50882/ “I'm happy to pay $500 a month. You know, if you get to, you know, 20% penetration, then your contribution margin at Tesla, right, is about the same, even though you're charging half as much.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:29:00 +0000 Gerstner states Google processes 10 billion queries daily, more than one per human globally. https://minutesof.com/q/8e7be5a2-17b0-49d8-9a24-56fc5639b0d4/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e7be5a2-17b0-49d8-9a24-56fc5639b0d4/ “So, you know, a couple queries are more than a query for every human on the planet, and it has the most efficient system in the world for doing that.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:20:31 +0000 Gerstner calculates AI answers cost 10x more than traditional search: 4 cents versus 0.3 cents per query. https://minutesof.com/q/6d279606-acc6-4ba3-92f6-4309075c6a9b/ https://minutesof.com/q/6d279606-acc6-4ba3-92f6-4309075c6a9b/ “Now, what does it cost to do that for $7.50 tokens today? And of course, this will go down over time, but it's 10x more, right? It's 4¢ per query.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:20:31 +0000 Gerstner argues memory and context matter more than raw intelligence for AI assistants. https://minutesof.com/q/0fb92875-8ae9-4b8e-9736-f735c69ea782/ https://minutesof.com/q/0fb92875-8ae9-4b8e-9736-f735c69ea782/ “Or would you like to have an assistant that's just above average intelligence, knows everything about you, and they can use the Internet?” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:20:31 +0000 Gerstner cites Morris Chang explaining why Texas cannot compete with Taiwan fab plants. https://minutesof.com/q/00bd9b5c-d90e-4106-b11f-e8805a5c73d1/ https://minutesof.com/q/00bd9b5c-d90e-4106-b11f-e8805a5c73d1/ “The U. Yeah. Interestingly enough, he ran a fab plant for Texas Instruments in Texas. And he explains why Taiwan, like why Texas could never possibly compete with a fat plant in Taiwan.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:20:31 +0000 Gerstner quotes Jensen predicting data center infrastructure will double from $1T to $2T in four to five years https://minutesof.com/q/e1a04006-788c-440c-96ca-495cf037020f/ https://minutesof.com/q/e1a04006-788c-440c-96ca-495cf037020f/ “And over the course of the next four to five years, we'll have 2,000,000,000,000 of data centers powering software around the world and it will all be accelerated compute.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:20:31 +0000 Gerstner argues consensus Nvidia forecast assumes market share drops from 55% to 26% by 2028. https://minutesof.com/q/e448f8c2-4b61-45ee-8832-d984d469788d/ https://minutesof.com/q/e448f8c2-4b61-45ee-8832-d984d469788d/ “Okay, so the consensus forecast that has the stock at $700 a share assumes, if you believe this TAM to be accurate, assumes that their share will go from 55% today to 26% in 2028.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:20:31 +0000 Gerstner notes that growth historically commands a 2-3x valuation premium over margin in the rule of 40. https://minutesof.com/q/9125ff81-84ed-4357-b4b8-aca5992d1699/ https://minutesof.com/q/9125ff81-84ed-4357-b4b8-aca5992d1699/ “What this chart shows is that, you know, again during dessert period, right growth was a huge multiplier like that's all people cared about.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 Gerstner explains that rule of 40 and revenue multiples are shortcuts for determining free cash flow multiples https://minutesof.com/q/92f29f74-0348-4086-9b6f-4803f4a5053e/ https://minutesof.com/q/92f29f74-0348-4086-9b6f-4803f4a5053e/ “Whether your rule of 40 or a multiple of revenue, those are shorthands for getting at the multiple of free cash flow.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 Gerstner cites Morgan Stanley research showing super cycles are systematically underestimated by about 40% at https://minutesof.com/q/db7151b5-6f29-4261-b2d7-b9e1d1dcbb8f/ https://minutesof.com/q/db7151b5-6f29-4261-b2d7-b9e1d1dcbb8f/ “When I think about what's going on here of course they show they went back and did some math against initial estimates and said, you know, super cycles are about 40% underestimated at the start.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 Gerstner predicts a zone of disillusionment will hit within four quarters as AI adoption takes longer than exp https://minutesof.com/q/b25e2255-7278-4ee6-a832-635428bc1887/ https://minutesof.com/q/b25e2255-7278-4ee6-a832-635428bc1887/ “I can absolutely see sometime over the next four quarters. We're gonna hit a zone of disillusionment because everybody's pig piled in here.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 Gerstner believes AI will have a bigger impact on economic productivity than the internet itself. https://minutesof.com/q/c06c9a63-43ea-47cd-bd34-3d775dfa7698/ https://minutesof.com/q/c06c9a63-43ea-47cd-bd34-3d775dfa7698/ “my sense here is, you know, and I've said the AI is gonna be bigger than the Internet itself in terms of impact on economic productivity.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 Gerstner says he was concerned a year ago that Microsoft's OpenAI partnership would cause Amazon customers to https://minutesof.com/q/4c29463c-03e3-4be7-b7a7-2c8f22328c5c/ https://minutesof.com/q/4c29463c-03e3-4be7-b7a7-2c8f22328c5c/ “A year ago, I was concerned and some others were whether or not Microsoft's early lead because of their partnership with OpenAI would cause a bunch of customers to leave Amazon and go to Azure in order to take advantage of the benefits of OpenAI.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:54:25 +0000 Gerstner predicts Anthropic models will match GPT-4 and 4.5 turbo quality in the near term. https://minutesof.com/q/69e99490-3061-434b-a68c-846f3bb5b2fb/ https://minutesof.com/q/69e99490-3061-434b-a68c-846f3bb5b2fb/ “They're gonna have models which are every bit as good, you know, in the near term as chat GPT four and four point five turbo, etcetera.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:54:25 +0000 Gerstner notes critics compared AI training spending to 2001 dark fiber, claiming pullforward had occurred. https://minutesof.com/q/723a23da-b306-4871-8338-07827779e928/ https://minutesof.com/q/723a23da-b306-4871-8338-07827779e928/ “Everybody said at the last end of last year, we had pulled forward all of the training. You know, this was dark fiber from Internet in 2001.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:54:25 +0000 Gerstner says NVIDIA traded at 20x earnings, its lowest multiple ever, and is now up 25-30 percent. https://minutesof.com/q/408552e2-6237-4734-ba4f-fbcec9691df0/ https://minutesof.com/q/408552e2-6237-4734-ba4f-fbcec9691df0/ “It was overvalued despite the fact it was trading at 20 times earnings, its lowest multiple in history. Now it's up 25 or 30% after opening, the year down.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:54:25 +0000 Gerstner cites Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta all confirming massive AI inference and future infrastructure inves https://minutesof.com/q/be3f41ef-475b-4d6a-936e-73cd87d6b72c/ https://minutesof.com/q/be3f41ef-475b-4d6a-936e-73cd87d6b72c/ “It's up because Susan Lee from Meta just told us yesterday that they're going to make huge future investments in infrastructure, read NVIDIA, in order to support all of these initiatives.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:54:25 +0000 Gerstner notes Meta reduced headcount from 87,000 to 67,000 since his letter in Q3 2022. https://minutesof.com/q/06f6f08c-adc3-4fab-9439-ce1f25fd93e6/ https://minutesof.com/q/06f6f08c-adc3-4fab-9439-ce1f25fd93e6/ “When we wrote that letter in q three of twenty two, the head count at this company was 87,000 people. As of this quarter, it was 67,000 people.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:00:57 +0000 Gerstner says Meta nearly tripled earnings per employee in fifteen months. https://minutesof.com/q/df823f3b-46bb-4289-8031-13989cff00c0/ https://minutesof.com/q/df823f3b-46bb-4289-8031-13989cff00c0/ “They've nearly tripled their earnings per person working at the company in in over that fifteen month period of time.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:00:57 +0000 Gerstner claims Meta is the largest AI profit beneficiary in public markets outside NVIDIA. https://minutesof.com/q/aecddc1e-d22c-489b-802a-fea0a969b2d4/ https://minutesof.com/q/aecddc1e-d22c-489b-802a-fea0a969b2d4/ “They are the single largest beneficiary of AI from a profit perspective in the public markets today outside of NVIDIA.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:00:57 +0000 Gerstner notes Google barely reduced headcount from 187,000 to 183,000 over the same period. https://minutesof.com/q/86d932ef-9212-462b-965e-db28c85c848d/ https://minutesof.com/q/86d932ef-9212-462b-965e-db28c85c848d/ “You know, if you look at Google over that same period of time, I pulled the numbers this morning.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:00:57 +0000 Gerstner calculates the market assigns negative $120 per share valuation to Reality Labs. https://minutesof.com/q/286e7734-0ac5-4983-b73a-09725cf6a2e0/ https://minutesof.com/q/286e7734-0ac5-4983-b73a-09725cf6a2e0/ “The market's assigning a 20 times multiple to the company. So that's effectively an implied valuation of negative $120 per share for Reality Labs.” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:00:57 +0000 Gerstner reports hyperscalers added over $15 billion ARR in the quarter, a record. https://minutesof.com/q/f8a5c499-b5b2-4e62-991a-daea301a4510/ https://minutesof.com/q/f8a5c499-b5b2-4e62-991a-daea301a4510/ “In the quarter, if you aggregate the hyperscalers together, we added over $15,000,000,000 in ARR. That's annual recurring revenue, the single largest quarter in the history” — CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:00:57 +0000 Gerstner says Altimeter's best AI bets over the past two years were NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Snowflake. https://minutesof.com/q/99bf97ec-7a4d-4ff6-99f4-58e910b6f28b/ https://minutesof.com/q/99bf97ec-7a4d-4ff6-99f4-58e910b6f28b/ “the best bets on AI over the course of the last eighteen months or two years, we were fortunate to be in, were NVIDIA and Microsoft, Snowflake.” — iConnections Wed, 31 Jan 2024 17:38:34 +0000 Gerstner held over 70% of deployed capital in top positions, arguing concentration matters more than participa https://minutesof.com/q/396f3dbc-5fe2-45b6-ad81-a748b95589f1/ https://minutesof.com/q/396f3dbc-5fe2-45b6-ad81-a748b95589f1/ “Those positions represented over 70% of the deployed long capital in our fund last year. Stock selection matters. Concentration matters.” — iConnections Wed, 31 Jan 2024 17:38:34 +0000 Gerstner reveals Meta was trading at 6x fully taxed earnings at the start of 2023. https://minutesof.com/q/e8218527-2642-44e5-b79d-58d6b8b66ee9/ https://minutesof.com/q/e8218527-2642-44e5-b79d-58d6b8b66ee9/ “Meta was trading at six times fully taxed earnings, right? And so unless you were doing the work” — iConnections Wed, 31 Jan 2024 17:38:34 +0000 Gerstner calls investing in technology for the next two decades the biggest cheat in all investing. https://minutesof.com/q/4bdc8c2d-7e56-486a-90fd-bcd6cd919eac/ https://minutesof.com/q/4bdc8c2d-7e56-486a-90fd-bcd6cd919eac/ “I think the biggest cheat in all of investing is investing in technology for the next two decades. It will outcompound non tech.” — iConnections Wed, 31 Jan 2024 17:38:34 +0000 Gerstner proposes seeding 3.7 million accounts annually with $1,000 each, costing $3.7 billion yearly. https://minutesof.com/q/27701a69-3ec7-45e9-9808-8c05682c9140/ https://minutesof.com/q/27701a69-3ec7-45e9-9808-8c05682c9140/ “This legislation will cause the Treasury Department to set up 3,700,000 private accounts. Those private accounts will be seeded with $1,000 from the federal government.” — iConnections Wed, 31 Jan 2024 17:38:34 +0000 Gerstner projects Invest America accounts would grow to $175k at age 30 and $1 million at 55. https://minutesof.com/q/48b69fd4-dd69-4c79-b424-f3f6cf78d7ff/ https://minutesof.com/q/48b69fd4-dd69-4c79-b424-f3f6cf78d7ff/ “At the age of 55, everybody has a million bucks based upon the compounding that's occurred for the last seventy five years in the S and P 500.” — iConnections Wed, 31 Jan 2024 17:38:34 +0000 Gerstner highlights Super Micro raised full-year guidance by 40% to $14 billion. https://minutesof.com/q/584d2a5d-006f-487e-8ec5-9d97132a3343/ https://minutesof.com/q/584d2a5d-006f-487e-8ec5-9d97132a3343/ “Super Micro took their full year guide up after the bell today by 40%. 40% to $14,000,000,000. So that's why you're seeing these moves.” — CNBC Television Mon, 29 Jan 2024 23:20:37 +0000 Gerstner recalls NVIDIA data center revenue forecasts shifted from -6% to +25% last year. https://minutesof.com/q/3b798c64-1de6-4f61-baf9-1f2a35b1da5d/ https://minutesof.com/q/3b798c64-1de6-4f61-baf9-1f2a35b1da5d/ “Think about NVIDIA at the start of last year. Data center revenues were expected to shrink by 6%. Right?” — CNBC Television Mon, 29 Jan 2024 23:20:37 +0000 Gerstner notes NVIDIA traded at 20x earnings last year, its lowest multiple ever. https://minutesof.com/q/3cbafc48-1c09-438b-93f5-2057d942c6f1/ https://minutesof.com/q/3cbafc48-1c09-438b-93f5-2057d942c6f1/ “So NVIDIA ended last year at 20 times earnings. Its lowest multiple of earnings it's ever traded at, despite the fact that it's the the the purest play AI name in in the space.” — CNBC Television Mon, 29 Jan 2024 23:20:37 +0000 Gerstner says Altimeter's NVIDIA numbers remain well above Street consensus for this year. https://minutesof.com/q/95ed61dd-41b7-4aeb-82fb-045a18618f18/ https://minutesof.com/q/95ed61dd-41b7-4aeb-82fb-045a18618f18/ “Our numbers are still well above the street for this year. I think there's a lot of doubt. You know, the the common, discussion at the end of last year” — CNBC Television Mon, 29 Jan 2024 23:20:37 +0000 Gerstner says NVIDIA holds 90% plus market share and trades at historical average multiples. https://minutesof.com/q/311c6aee-e4dc-4484-969a-fe01d2583e1e/ https://minutesof.com/q/311c6aee-e4dc-4484-969a-fe01d2583e1e/ “So if you wanna express that bet, right, which is AI leadership at 25 to 30 times earnings, which is consistent with historical averages for NVIDIA.” — CNBC Television Mon, 29 Jan 2024 23:20:37 +0000 Gerstner says MANG (Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Google) went from near-zero VC investing to $25 billion last ye https://minutesof.com/q/14def7f9-9646-4442-b698-113f8477048a/ https://minutesof.com/q/14def7f9-9646-4442-b698-113f8477048a/ “we have this explosion in venture capital investing coming out of four companies, right? He called them MANG. Microsoft, Amazon, know, Nvidia and Google.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:07:19 +0000 Gerstner argues MANG participation is distorting market prices compared to arm's length transactions with fina https://minutesof.com/q/a99d2717-a496-436b-9205-164558f77226/ https://minutesof.com/q/a99d2717-a496-436b-9205-164558f77226/ “I do think that it is a really important thing that you're pointing out, which is at a very minimum, I think we can say that the participation of MANG, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Google, is distorting the price in the market in a way that wouldn't occur if it was all arm's length transaction with financial investors.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:07:19 +0000 Gerstner forecasts Microsoft, Amazon, and Snowflake will accelerate growth rates, calling this unprecedented a https://minutesof.com/q/836e0b05-83ca-4b66-bc71-7adbf9cbd11d/ https://minutesof.com/q/836e0b05-83ca-4b66-bc71-7adbf9cbd11d/ “We expect our forecast is that Microsoft and Amazon, you know, Snowflake, they'll all accelerate their growth rates this year. Right?” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:07:19 +0000 Gerstner says portfolio return targets normalized from 80% in early 2023 to 20-30% now. https://minutesof.com/q/4a9c8673-8651-4fc6-baef-6cb729227567/ https://minutesof.com/q/4a9c8673-8651-4fc6-baef-6cb729227567/ “I think the return to target in our portfolio is 20 to 30%, whereas the start of last year, Bill, it was like 80%.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:07:19 +0000 Gerstner argues normalized valuations mean 2024 won't match easy returns of early 2023. https://minutesof.com/q/083d2f86-2944-41e6-a0b1-39ec9dd3f24f/ https://minutesof.com/q/083d2f86-2944-41e6-a0b1-39ec9dd3f24f/ “So that's the big thing. The world is normalized. Multiples have normalized. It's not gonna be as easy as it was at the start of '23.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:07:19 +0000 Gerstner cites ten-year data showing tech earnings compounded at 13% versus 6% for non-tech. https://minutesof.com/q/ba435bff-0a95-4d72-a56f-b2048fade289/ https://minutesof.com/q/ba435bff-0a95-4d72-a56f-b2048fade289/ “But if you look at non tech, so if you take the S and P and you strip out all the tech companies, they've only compounded earnings at about 6%.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:07:19 +0000 Gerstner notes S&P 500 is rapidly becoming a tech index, setting up observation about investor mistakes. https://minutesof.com/q/2706b589-faa5-4386-8e9e-a46e3dae2da9/ https://minutesof.com/q/2706b589-faa5-4386-8e9e-a46e3dae2da9/ “It turns out that even the SPY, which is the S and P five hundred index, is very quickly And becoming a tech so I think a big mistake here's an interesting one.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:07:19 +0000 Gerstner says Uber went from losing $2.5B to profiting $3.5B in free cash flow under Khosrowshahi. https://minutesof.com/q/78d9ba48-a347-4595-947f-3587a41b2120/ https://minutesof.com/q/78d9ba48-a347-4595-947f-3587a41b2120/ “The company went from losing over 2,500,000,000 or around 2,500,000,000 when Dara took over to profiting over 3,500,000,000, and we're talking free cash flow.” — This Week in Startups Fri, 12 Jan 2024 05:28:40 +0000 Gerstner notes consensus forecasts Uber reaching almost $10B in free cash flow in a few years. https://minutesof.com/q/7fc0ecce-e0fe-4920-8deb-c9f88b0a4b8e/ https://minutesof.com/q/7fc0ecce-e0fe-4920-8deb-c9f88b0a4b8e/ “if you look at the consensus forecast for the business, which is pretty mind boggling, it's estimated by the consensus that it'll reach almost 10,000,000,000 in free cash flow, just a few years from now.” — This Week in Startups Fri, 12 Jan 2024 05:28:40 +0000 Gerstner argues Khosrowshahi's capital markets expertise was critical fit for cash-hemorrhaging Uber needing f https://minutesof.com/q/bdd29fa5-2d57-49d2-8b3e-5f09ffdc2b76/ https://minutesof.com/q/bdd29fa5-2d57-49d2-8b3e-5f09ffdc2b76/ “Uber at the time was hemorrhaging cash, needed to get rid of some divisions, needed to focus on the core.” — This Week in Startups Fri, 12 Jan 2024 05:28:40 +0000 Gerstner describes negative reflexivity of overpriced rounds forcing companies to spend money foolishly to mat https://minutesof.com/q/81e44dda-ccc3-495f-add2-6334ff802d7c/ https://minutesof.com/q/81e44dda-ccc3-495f-add2-6334ff802d7c/ “I wouldn't have had to spend money like a fool. They nail it yet again. The negative reflexivity that occurs when you have a headline valuation,” — This Week in Startups Fri, 12 Jan 2024 05:28:40 +0000 Gerstner says Zillow's Barton immediately red-teamed AI impact on vertical search after ChatGPT launched. https://minutesof.com/q/2febc7ff-d27d-48ca-9a7a-33ce2ed436a6/ https://minutesof.com/q/2febc7ff-d27d-48ca-9a7a-33ce2ed436a6/ “We're gonna red team blue team AI. What is the impact that AI is gonna have on 10 blue links? What is the impact that AI is gonna have on vertical search?” — This Week in Startups Fri, 12 Jan 2024 05:28:40 +0000 Gerstner recounts that Satya Nadella bought his company Faircast for Microsoft in 2008 when running Bing. https://minutesof.com/q/fb04b8ea-38dc-4788-959b-7d2defbb2cf0/ https://minutesof.com/q/fb04b8ea-38dc-4788-959b-7d2defbb2cf0/ “The person who bought Ferricast in 2008 for Microsoft was Satya Nadella. Oh, He was running Bing at the time. Right.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Mon, 20 Nov 2023 15:00:53 +0000 Gerstner says Nadella predicted fifteen years before ChatGPT that Microsoft needed answers, not links, to beat https://minutesof.com/q/23028c1a-2fc9-45e8-b065-6411ce4a43ce/ https://minutesof.com/q/23028c1a-2fc9-45e8-b065-6411ce4a43ce/ “Fifteen years before ChatGPT started producing answers, Satya knew that that's where they had to get to if they were going to leapfrog Google.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Mon, 20 Nov 2023 15:00:53 +0000 Gerstner claims AI delivers 30 to 50 percent productivity gains to engineers, unprecedented in technology hist https://minutesof.com/q/4de657b3-fe07-4ac4-a59c-273f5d11add1/ https://minutesof.com/q/4de657b3-fe07-4ac4-a59c-273f5d11add1/ “If you think about what AI is already doing for the enterprise, we're seeing 30 to 50% productivity improvements in engineers. There's never been a technology history of technology.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Mon, 20 Nov 2023 15:00:53 +0000 Gerstner proposes federal government seed $1,000 S&P 500 accounts for 3.7 million children born annually. https://minutesof.com/q/2a05d881-24a2-4b96-8910-9cc7525753d8/ https://minutesof.com/q/2a05d881-24a2-4b96-8910-9cc7525753d8/ “This idea is a bipartisan piece of legislation where the federal government will seed a private investment account for every child born in America. So think about this. 3,700,000 children born a year.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Mon, 20 Nov 2023 15:00:53 +0000 Gerstner details Invest America accounts would grow tax-free with $750 annual additions from employers or fami https://minutesof.com/q/88058515-0922-4df0-bdea-4f87264fb588/ https://minutesof.com/q/88058515-0922-4df0-bdea-4f87264fb588/ “If you start with a thousand and you only have an addition of $750 a year, okay, families can contribute to that. Tax free. Correct.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Mon, 20 Nov 2023 15:00:53 +0000 Gerstner argues Google 2004 IPO investors captured 90 percent of internet search profits, illustrating patienc https://minutesof.com/q/121159a8-aa5b-4cd8-a515-8e45f957fbf2/ https://minutesof.com/q/121159a8-aa5b-4cd8-a515-8e45f957fbf2/ “You could have waited to invest in Google in 2004 and their IPO and you would have captured 90 plus percent of all the profits ever generated in internet search.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Mon, 20 Nov 2023 15:00:53 +0000 Gerstner launched Altimeter in 2008 with promised funding from endowments despite the financial crisis. https://minutesof.com/q/41688c08-dd5d-48d6-b651-ee5b5948bf26/ https://minutesof.com/q/41688c08-dd5d-48d6-b651-ee5b5948bf26/ “I had, you know, I had some endowments who had promised me some money at the end of two thousand and seven, but this is a good lesson, starting any business, right?” — Elad Gil Thu, 09 Nov 2023 16:27:02 +0000 Gerstner's first trade at Altimeter on November 1, 2008 was buying Priceline stock. https://minutesof.com/q/0da4a63c-d71e-472c-bff4-13caf8037afd/ https://minutesof.com/q/0da4a63c-d71e-472c-bff4-13caf8037afd/ “11/01/2008, yesterday was our fifteenth anniversary, okay? The first trade I ever placed, right, in my own fund. I bought, Priceline was the first stock we bought.” — Elad Gil Thu, 09 Nov 2023 16:27:02 +0000 Gerstner invested $170M in Snowflake's Series B when it was pre-revenue with only 10 beta customers. https://minutesof.com/q/f17f9e0e-e330-4739-a91b-78eff97d2e9c/ https://minutesof.com/q/f17f9e0e-e330-4739-a91b-78eff97d2e9c/ “So those are, you know, in the case of Snowflake, that Series B was $170,000,000 The Series C was 500,000,000 The Series B, it was still pre revenue.” — Elad Gil Thu, 09 Nov 2023 16:27:02 +0000 Snowflake grew from $170M to over $50B enterprise value with Altimeter still a major shareholder. https://minutesof.com/q/c64e42a2-0010-433c-b19a-f37235c8b078/ https://minutesof.com/q/c64e42a2-0010-433c-b19a-f37235c8b078/ “Yeah, that was total enterprise value of Snowflake when we got involved, and we're still one of their largest shareholders today, and it's over $50,000,000,000 in enterprise value,” — Elad Gil Thu, 09 Nov 2023 16:27:02 +0000 Gerstner proposes federal government seed $1,000 S&P 500 accounts for all newborns since 70% never benefit fro https://minutesof.com/q/9fa2e410-3dea-4663-a193-c840777d7165/ https://minutesof.com/q/9fa2e410-3dea-4663-a193-c840777d7165/ “Seed it with $1,000 in the S and P 500 because today, 70% of families and kids will never benefit from savings or investment, right?” — Elad Gil Thu, 09 Nov 2023 16:27:02 +0000 Gerstner views OpenAI's $85B valuation with capped upside as poor risk-reward given few companies exceed $100B https://minutesof.com/q/697e5c02-faa7-4c9b-aff9-98b36ecbf1ff/ https://minutesof.com/q/697e5c02-faa7-4c9b-aff9-98b36ecbf1ff/ “I can then plot a distribution of likely outcomes. How many companies have ever in the history of Silicon Valley been worth durably more than $100,000,000,000” — Elad Gil Thu, 09 Nov 2023 16:27:02 +0000 Gerstner proposes $1,000 S&P 500 accounts for all 3.7 million newborns yearly, costing only 3.7 billion annual https://minutesof.com/q/9ecb3b00-2446-4933-b34e-426361cd8bfb/ https://minutesof.com/q/9ecb3b00-2446-4933-b34e-426361cd8bfb/ “This is a bipartisan piece of legislation we hope to have introduced in the spring that would cause the treasury to create a $1,000 seed investment account for every child born in America.” — CNBC Television Wed, 08 Nov 2023 15:50:49 +0000 Gerstner says the accounts would grow to $12,000 by age 10, giving kids ownership stakes in major companies. https://minutesof.com/q/8aaa9960-8612-4278-ba3f-9e55b74014f5/ https://minutesof.com/q/8aaa9960-8612-4278-ba3f-9e55b74014f5/ “At 10 years old, you'll have $12,000 in that account. You see that you own a little bit of Tesla, of of Microsoft, of UnitedHealthcare.” — CNBC Television Wed, 08 Nov 2023 15:50:49 +0000 Gerstner says Uber CEO Dara agreed to match contributions for employees' children, likening it to a 401k from https://minutesof.com/q/842dc726-5931-4417-8691-010e06a797de/ https://minutesof.com/q/842dc726-5931-4417-8691-010e06a797de/ “So I was with Dara. I said, Dara, if we set this up, will you match it for all the kids of your drivers and employees?” — CNBC Television Wed, 08 Nov 2023 15:50:49 +0000 Gerstner predicts the ten-year treasury will settle in a three to four percent range, creating a highly invest https://minutesof.com/q/ae921316-b4a3-4353-9b51-16f8a0ce3567/ https://minutesof.com/q/ae921316-b4a3-4353-9b51-16f8a0ce3567/ “I think we're going back to a period of three to four on the ten year, a highly investable period.” — CNBC Television Wed, 08 Nov 2023 15:35:15 +0000 Gerstner says the key missing element for the last three years has been predictability in markets. https://minutesof.com/q/aecf35c7-2ec3-48b3-baea-e62f5bcaf206/ https://minutesof.com/q/aecf35c7-2ec3-48b3-baea-e62f5bcaf206/ “What we need In the nineties. We need predictability. Yeah. And what we haven't had the last three years is predictability.” — CNBC Television Wed, 08 Nov 2023 15:35:15 +0000 Gerstner says the Fed made a clear mistake in summer 2021 by not seeing inflation coming. https://minutesof.com/q/f72e17ad-522b-4dd9-96d2-4a3d75bb3870/ https://minutesof.com/q/f72e17ad-522b-4dd9-96d2-4a3d75bb3870/ “But by the summer of twenty one, when the Fed was saying they don't see inflation, that was clearly a mistake.” — CNBC Television Wed, 08 Nov 2023 15:35:15 +0000 Gerstner reveals Altimeter reduced net exposure from 93% at year start to 60% currently. https://minutesof.com/q/82c9eb8d-85ea-462c-9019-514f103f6e1d/ https://minutesof.com/q/82c9eb8d-85ea-462c-9019-514f103f6e1d/ “For us, our our net exposure today is 60%. Like I said, we started the year at 93.” — CNBC Television Wed, 08 Nov 2023 15:35:15 +0000 Gerstner says AI is creating massive bottom-line opportunities as companies like Uber continue reducing headco https://minutesof.com/q/76972eb1-97fa-4a54-a7bb-e71426412574/ https://minutesof.com/q/76972eb1-97fa-4a54-a7bb-e71426412574/ “The re you know, and Dara told you yesterday, quarter over quarter we've actually reduced head count again. Right. We have this massive bottom line opportunity in all these businesses because of AI.” — CNBC Television Wed, 08 Nov 2023 15:35:15 +0000 Gerstner reports Satya Nadella told him Copilot is Microsoft's fastest growing product ever, beating Windows a https://minutesof.com/q/df0aecb4-c8f1-4d99-bfa7-c55e980ce0ca/ https://minutesof.com/q/df0aecb4-c8f1-4d99-bfa7-c55e980ce0ca/ “Satya, the CEO of Microsoft, who I saw last week, said to me that Copilot is the fastest growing product in the history of Microsoft.” — FII Institute Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:01:13 +0000 Gerstner says professional analysts predicted NVIDIA data center revenue would decline 6 percent, highlighting https://minutesof.com/q/92655be9-98bd-4d4b-aec5-e738b69a9dfb/ https://minutesof.com/q/92655be9-98bd-4d4b-aec5-e738b69a9dfb/ “The consensus estimate for NVIDIA this year was that data center growth revenue growth was gonna be negative 6%. Right? That's the pros. They got it that wrong.” — FII Institute Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:01:13 +0000 Gerstner predicts next year will see more compute deployed globally than in all of human history combined. https://minutesof.com/q/cfd3f479-3c10-46cb-848d-e02ca3829c36/ https://minutesof.com/q/cfd3f479-3c10-46cb-848d-e02ca3829c36/ “We're going to deploy more compute on a global basis next year than all the compute ever deployed by humanity combined. That's how much compute is going to drive these training models.” — FII Institute Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:01:13 +0000 I think there's plenty of time. If this is going to be as big and as transformational as humanity as we all th https://minutesof.com/q/7e4d8b5f-4b70-4806-b8eb-aff80239e7d4/ https://minutesof.com/q/7e4d8b5f-4b70-4806-b8eb-aff80239e7d4/ “I think there's plenty of time. If this is going to be as big and as transformational as humanity as we all think it will be, remember, you didn't have to invest in search until Google's IPO in 2004 to capture 95% of all ever generated by Internet search.” — FII Institute Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:01:13 +0000 Gerstner reveals Altimeter has passed on 75 AI investment opportunities in the last twelve months. https://minutesof.com/q/1ca388e2-ebae-4d03-9017-44ca1f0f0ccf/ https://minutesof.com/q/1ca388e2-ebae-4d03-9017-44ca1f0f0ccf/ “Today to me, you know, we've passed on 75 AI businesses over the course of the last twelve months that we've looked at, not because we don't think those are good founders or maybe even good business models,” — FII Institute Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:01:13 +0000 Gerstner calculates that Invest America started thirty years ago would give 29-year-olds $250,000 today. https://minutesof.com/q/1aa44a6c-4a2a-448b-a467-dfabb723ab95/ https://minutesof.com/q/1aa44a6c-4a2a-448b-a467-dfabb723ab95/ “If we had started this thirty years ago, a 29 year old today would have over $250,000 in their Invest America account.” — Joe Lonsdale Wed, 25 Oct 2023 18:32:55 +0000 Gerstner predicts 2024 will see more compute deployed than all previous years combined for AI. https://minutesof.com/q/d8e7bd22-8bfa-4a59-976b-04a457353f4b/ https://minutesof.com/q/d8e7bd22-8bfa-4a59-976b-04a457353f4b/ “We're gonna launch more. We're gonna deploy more compute in 2024 than in all previous years combined.” — Joe Lonsdale Wed, 25 Oct 2023 18:32:55 +0000 Gerstner cites Amazon CodeWhisperer reporting 56% increase in engineering productivity from AI coding tools. https://minutesof.com/q/2d8e05c8-cbd0-48d0-8673-7920bb71b4ac/ https://minutesof.com/q/2d8e05c8-cbd0-48d0-8673-7920bb71b4ac/ “I think Amazon CodeWhisperer, so this is a cogeneration copilot Mhmm. Is reporting that they've seen 56% increase in engineering productivity” — Joe Lonsdale Wed, 25 Oct 2023 18:32:55 +0000 Gerstner reveals ByteDance has 40,000 content moderators and expects 90% reduction via AI within a year. https://minutesof.com/q/40ca00c3-d4fa-46c8-adb7-5371f3a7e005/ https://minutesof.com/q/40ca00c3-d4fa-46c8-adb7-5371f3a7e005/ “ByteDance, where we're investors, has about 40,000 content moderators. Okay? These are folks who are flagging, you know, content that” — Joe Lonsdale Wed, 25 Oct 2023 18:32:55 +0000 Gerstner cites that 44% of Americans aged 18-29 believe socialism is superior to capitalism. https://minutesof.com/q/1be213de-3f77-4536-94a0-99cf393eb02b/ https://minutesof.com/q/1be213de-3f77-4536-94a0-99cf393eb02b/ “Joe, among the age group 18 29, 44% of that group believe socialism is a superior form of organizing government than capitalism.” — Joe Lonsdale Wed, 25 Oct 2023 18:32:55 +0000 Gerstner calculates $5,000 compounded to age 60 yields $1 million in Invest America accounts. https://minutesof.com/q/5f593743-9bf3-41bf-a29c-9a186e87da0c/ https://minutesof.com/q/5f593743-9bf3-41bf-a29c-9a186e87da0c/ “5,000 compounded by the age of 60, you have a million dollars in your Invest America account.” — Joe Lonsdale Wed, 25 Oct 2023 18:32:55 +0000 Gerstner argues the Fed made a knowable mistake ignoring 20x shipping cost increases in summer 2021. https://minutesof.com/q/7612e0a6-d040-4109-ab37-56aa77382eff/ https://minutesof.com/q/7612e0a6-d040-4109-ab37-56aa77382eff/ “The cost of a container from China to The US had gone up 20x. Okay. The idea that we didn't have an inflation problem in the summer of twenty twenty one” — Joe Lonsdale Wed, 25 Oct 2023 18:32:55 +0000 Gerstner characterizes Google as a monopoly that has been a tax collector on the Internet for twenty years. https://minutesof.com/q/505cb21a-c8cc-4c3b-83ac-856051db4d08/ https://minutesof.com/q/505cb21a-c8cc-4c3b-83ac-856051db4d08/ “Google has been a monopoly, a tax collector on everything on the Internet for twenty years.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 22:00:34 +0000 Gerstner argues Google's culture evolved from product-led growth to a research institution. https://minutesof.com/q/144c4b16-a09b-4f54-9ed3-bf0e48a0066d/ https://minutesof.com/q/144c4b16-a09b-4f54-9ed3-bf0e48a0066d/ “the culture at Google had evolved in such a way that it had become more of a research institution than a product led growth institution.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 22:00:34 +0000 Gerstner says GPT has become the default verb for AI, not Google's Bard. https://minutesof.com/q/62a6fd8a-3781-437f-9bc6-b2803fbd1db8/ https://minutesof.com/q/62a6fd8a-3781-437f-9bc6-b2803fbd1db8/ “Do you bard or do you chat GPT? GPT has become the default verb for all things AI.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 22:00:34 +0000 Gerstner says Google made a mistake letting OpenAI go first despite having the technology and capabilities. https://minutesof.com/q/e6c21217-8fa5-4d12-9b00-0660d8d1ccd3/ https://minutesof.com/q/e6c21217-8fa5-4d12-9b00-0660d8d1ccd3/ “And to relinquish that spot by letting OpenAI go first, when you had the technology, you had the supercompute, you had the capabilities to release that product, I think was a mistake.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 22:00:34 +0000 Gerstner says cargo container costs increased tenfold by June 2021 when inflation was evident. https://minutesof.com/q/76ce1075-5537-454d-ac71-744ee664e22b/ https://minutesof.com/q/76ce1075-5537-454d-ac71-744ee664e22b/ “June 2021, when the world knew inflation was here. I mean, the cost of a cargo container had gone up by 10 x.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:12:52 +0000 Gerstner cites Kashkari's June 2021 forecast of no rate hikes until 2024 as evidence of Fed miscalculation. https://minutesof.com/q/472c426b-85d3-4279-90be-5d543ca9080f/ https://minutesof.com/q/472c426b-85d3-4279-90be-5d543ca9080f/ “He says we're not gonna have rate hikes until 2024. That's how wrong the Fed's forecast was in June 2021 because they were making the argument that inflation was transient.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:12:52 +0000 Gerstner highlights the shift from zero rates to 8% mortgages as evidence of dramatic policy change. https://minutesof.com/q/5a993ced-5033-444b-9b80-710973ab71a2/ https://minutesof.com/q/5a993ced-5033-444b-9b80-710973ab71a2/ “We've gone from effectively a 0% interest rate environment in ZERP, where corporations borrowed for free and consumers borrowed for free, to now we have 8% mortgages.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:12:52 +0000 Gerstner lists specific consumer borrowing costs: 10% car loans and 20% credit cards. https://minutesof.com/q/94715e83-2cef-44c6-8bbf-662daec71e22/ https://minutesof.com/q/94715e83-2cef-44c6-8bbf-662daec71e22/ “We have 10% car loans. We have 20% credit cards. Student loans are about to kick in.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:12:52 +0000 Gerstner states he is certain the probability of meaningful economic slowing in 2024 has increased. https://minutesof.com/q/ce4a62a1-ff59-4801-9c1d-3672c8820a5c/ https://minutesof.com/q/ce4a62a1-ff59-4801-9c1d-3672c8820a5c/ “I am certain that the probability that we're going to have meaningful slowing in 2024 has gone up.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:12:52 +0000 Gerstner notes Fed raised 2024 GDP forecast from 1.1% to 1.5% despite worsening real economy conditions. https://minutesof.com/q/5964ea00-d263-4a47-95b6-c477e7054d7c/ https://minutesof.com/q/5964ea00-d263-4a47-95b6-c477e7054d7c/ “The Fed forecast in June of this year for GDP growth for 2024 was 1.1%. Today, the Fed forecast for GDP growth in 2024 is 1.5%.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:12:52 +0000 Gerstner argues AI follows the 1998-99 internet pattern: overpriced short-term but underestimated long-term im https://minutesof.com/q/e71da3f1-0b62-4edd-a895-68d3f45635ad/ https://minutesof.com/q/e71da3f1-0b62-4edd-a895-68d3f45635ad/ “But much like the Internet in 9899, where there was overpricing in the short run, we dramatically underestimated the impact it was going to have over the preceding decade.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:10:17 +0000 Gerstner says he made his first AI investment in 2005, backing University of Washington AI head. https://minutesof.com/q/c38abb91-76ba-49cd-9f5c-cc7558d599f1/ https://minutesof.com/q/c38abb91-76ba-49cd-9f5c-cc7558d599f1/ “My first AI investment was in 2005, backing the head of AI out of the University of Washington. So this has been going on for a long time.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:10:17 +0000 Gerstner predicted in 2018 that AI's impact would exceed the internet's, a year after the transformer model. https://minutesof.com/q/7054fcb4-5aa6-4cc6-aef2-428000bd6d50/ https://minutesof.com/q/7054fcb4-5aa6-4cc6-aef2-428000bd6d50/ “And at that event, in 2018, I said, and this was a year after the transformer model, that the impact would be greater than the Internet itself.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:10:17 +0000 Gerstner says OpenAI at $90 billion valuation may be overinflated like 2021 stocks, but AI remains profound. https://minutesof.com/q/c652313a-93c1-4d0c-bdfb-37d58f79b57a/ https://minutesof.com/q/c652313a-93c1-4d0c-bdfb-37d58f79b57a/ “OpenAI at $90,000,000,000 may be ahead of itself just like we saw stocks get ahead of themselves in 2021, but it doesn't mean that AI itself is is not gonna be profound.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:10:17 +0000 Gerstner notes consensus forecast predicted negative 6% NVIDIA data center growth and hard landing in early 20 https://minutesof.com/q/888f70c3-566c-49e2-9b37-b8bb0c92a4d4/ https://minutesof.com/q/888f70c3-566c-49e2-9b37-b8bb0c92a4d4/ “if we look at the start of the year, the consensus forecast for NVIDIA was that data center growth would be negative 6% this year.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:10:17 +0000 Gerstner argues NVIDIA at $400 from $100 looks expensive but trades only 20x next year's earnings. https://minutesof.com/q/5a8074dc-e4ca-4f4c-be62-c6147d860ec3/ https://minutesof.com/q/5a8074dc-e4ca-4f4c-be62-c6147d860ec3/ “But the fact of the matter is on consensus forecast for next year, it's trading just over $20 or 20 times earnings.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:10:17 +0000 What I would tell you is under 500,000,000, maybe under 600,000,000. Right? Series b and c rounds are as hot a https://minutesof.com/q/1ff2e9af-50f8-4a34-b237-5ae02ed9f79f/ https://minutesof.com/q/1ff2e9af-50f8-4a34-b237-5ae02ed9f79f/ “What I would tell you is under 500,000,000, maybe under 600,000,000. Right? Series b and c rounds are as hot as I've ever seen them in data infrastructure and AI and software, etcetera.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 Gerstner cites Wiz raising at $10B valuation with $200M ARR as evidence of late-stage market activity. https://minutesof.com/q/df3ad1d2-f935-45d5-8834-916bffcf04e9/ https://minutesof.com/q/df3ad1d2-f935-45d5-8834-916bffcf04e9/ “I just read Wiz raised more money. It's got $200,000,000 ARR raised at 10,000,000,000. So those markets are definitely” — All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 Gerstner predicts private market valuations will normalize to match public market declines of 50%, not just 5- https://minutesof.com/q/c66de8b8-e3f9-40fd-a73a-2f9f533d5c9e/ https://minutesof.com/q/c66de8b8-e3f9-40fd-a73a-2f9f533d5c9e/ “There was some you know, there's a report out this week that lots of people comment on Twitter where public markets were down 50% and private marks were down, I don't know, five to 10%.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 Gerstner reveals Altimeter tracked 100 potential IPOs in 2021, three in 2022, and zero in 2023 year-to-date. https://minutesof.com/q/4b136cbd-1b88-4a8c-b0f3-92de42e095bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/4b136cbd-1b88-4a8c-b0f3-92de42e095bc/ “So that was 46 in 2020, a 100 in 2021, three in 2022, and zero year to date in 2023.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 Gerstner says Instacart will IPO at around $10B versus its $50-60B private valuation, an 80% down round. https://minutesof.com/q/722ebe6f-5b3e-46da-9e1b-b3071bd89e9c/ https://minutesof.com/q/722ebe6f-5b3e-46da-9e1b-b3071bd89e9c/ “Right? Super high quality company. I think its last private round was 50 or 60,000,000,000 in the bubble, and now it's rumored to be going public at somewhere around $10,000,000,000.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 Gerstner forecasts 5-7 good-sized IPOs in Q4 2023 and closer to 10 in Q1 2024. https://minutesof.com/q/ac8bdfcc-9833-4b20-b2f7-d128b97fe885/ https://minutesof.com/q/ac8bdfcc-9833-4b20-b2f7-d128b97fe885/ “I think we're gonna see five, six, seven IPOs, good sized IPOs in q four. We'll probably see closer to 10 in q one,” — All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 Gerstner says IPO investors today demand significantly higher returns than 2021 deals as margin of safety. https://minutesof.com/q/88d79bfc-ad80-44da-a9ed-6b843a1bf530/ https://minutesof.com/q/88d79bfc-ad80-44da-a9ed-6b843a1bf530/ “anybody who does an IPO today, okay, is going to demand a, you know, a rate of return into that offering that is a significant margin of safety relative to all deals that were done in 2021.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 16 Jun 2023 20:55:00 +0000 Gerstner credits Mike Wilson for calling 2022 correctly but says he was tragically wrong on 2023 Q1 bearish ca https://minutesof.com/q/308844c4-75d7-47a2-aae3-0e18f4afa03d/ https://minutesof.com/q/308844c4-75d7-47a2-aae3-0e18f4afa03d/ “Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley, who may give him credit, made the call in 2022. He said '22 was gonna be awful. He was right.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 16 Jun 2023 20:55:00 +0000 Gerstner says AI stocks including Nvidia are now at or within 10% of his year-end price targets. https://minutesof.com/q/e8f48d09-e7c5-4307-96c8-f40415aa33dc/ https://minutesof.com/q/e8f48d09-e7c5-4307-96c8-f40415aa33dc/ “a lot of the AI related stocks are now at or within 10% of our end of year price target. And when you when you see that, take something like Nvidia,” — All-In Podcast Fri, 16 Jun 2023 20:55:00 +0000 Gerstner notes Nvidia revised Q2 datacenter guidance from $7 billion to $11 billion, defying negative expectat https://minutesof.com/q/5c50291b-f319-4934-9ce1-3f5787b4c4a6/ https://minutesof.com/q/5c50291b-f319-4934-9ce1-3f5787b4c4a6/ “People thought data center revenues this year were gonna be negative, and they just revised their guide from 7,000,000,000 in q two to to 11,000,000,000 in q two.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 16 Jun 2023 20:55:00 +0000 Gerstner frames the $20 trillion question as how the web's open architecture gets rearchitected for AI. https://minutesof.com/q/f2edbc0b-af73-484c-9e63-aed71168f4fe/ https://minutesof.com/q/f2edbc0b-af73-484c-9e63-aed71168f4fe/ “the $20,000,000,000,000 question is how does the entire open architecture of the web get rearchitected in the age of AI?” — All-In Podcast Fri, 16 Jun 2023 20:55:00 +0000 Gerstner says there's growing confidence that search dollars will redistribute over 5-7 years, even Google mus https://minutesof.com/q/aeb92c7b-6dd5-40ed-86cb-d645bccc00c9/ https://minutesof.com/q/aeb92c7b-6dd5-40ed-86cb-d645bccc00c9/ “And make no mistake, Google is well positioned to make its claim for that, but its claim is going to come at the expense of search.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 16 Jun 2023 20:55:00 +0000 Gerstner reveals Altimeter has said no to over 60 AI companies while competitors do many deals. https://minutesof.com/q/3963228e-b047-4325-9088-a1e686ebcb87/ https://minutesof.com/q/3963228e-b047-4325-9088-a1e686ebcb87/ “We've said no to over 60 companies. Right? We you know, but when we look around, I see a lot of our competitors doing a lot of these deals.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 16 Jun 2023 20:55:00 +0000 Gerstner says AI extracts knowledge from information to provide copilot assistance for better decisions, unlik https://minutesof.com/q/b71ee2fb-b90a-43ed-a95a-010eecec47b4/ https://minutesof.com/q/b71ee2fb-b90a-43ed-a95a-010eecec47b4/ “What AI allows us to do is extract the knowledge from that information to get a copilot to help us make better decisions.” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jun 2023 20:04:18 +0000 Gerstner reveals Altimeter held an investor day before ChatGPT's release focused on cloud data migration and A https://minutesof.com/q/571ee3c2-dbc6-4941-b0cb-4837d1d9c6a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/571ee3c2-dbc6-4941-b0cb-4837d1d9c6a3/ “We hosted an investor day last year before chat GPT came out, and the the the thesis or the theme of the investor day was all the world's data moving to the cloud, augmented and intelligent applications being built on top of it.” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jun 2023 20:04:18 +0000 Gerstner identifies AI as the third major platform disruption he has managed, following the web and mobile/clo https://minutesof.com/q/f6ab5bce-90dd-4a53-a05c-7abe51b4d212/ https://minutesof.com/q/f6ab5bce-90dd-4a53-a05c-7abe51b4d212/ “think in moments of major platform disruptions, and this is the third that I've managed through.” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jun 2023 20:04:18 +0000 Gerstner predicts the shift from searching web pages to conversational chat agents that directly answer questi https://minutesof.com/q/c8fd40dd-3cc3-4b29-beb8-23067b159376/ https://minutesof.com/q/c8fd40dd-3cc3-4b29-beb8-23067b159376/ “The world is headed in a place where we're just gonna chat our questions. We're gonna say, how do you make a French omelet?” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jun 2023 20:04:18 +0000 Gerstner warns that companies relying on Google's search ecosystem face potential value destruction from AI di https://minutesof.com/q/99838664-de3a-4207-b41f-889e206a90a6/ https://minutesof.com/q/99838664-de3a-4207-b41f-889e206a90a6/ “You're not gonna have to search through 10 blue links. And so, yes, a lot of the companies that were beneficiaries of the Google ecosystem are now suspect.” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jun 2023 20:04:18 +0000 Gerstner references his letter to Zuckerberg urging AI investment and predicts Meta will be a major AI winner. https://minutesof.com/q/d89ec087-ad84-409f-a893-58b87734a3c8/ https://minutesof.com/q/d89ec087-ad84-409f-a893-58b87734a3c8/ “I said on your program, you know, six or nine months ago, and in my letter to Mark Zuckerberg, I said double down on AI.” — CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jun 2023 20:04:18 +0000 Gerstner says AI is a platform shift as big as internet or mobile, with $10-11B invested across 500 companies. https://minutesof.com/q/ad541aee-acdf-4102-b6e8-44719bf84d78/ https://minutesof.com/q/ad541aee-acdf-4102-b6e8-44719bf84d78/ “I mean, I have to agree with Doug that this is a platform shift on the same magnitude as the internet or mobile itself.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 03 Mar 2023 18:43:00 +0000 Gerstner contextualizes AI investment by noting Meta alone spends $20B yearly on AR/VR for comparison. https://minutesof.com/q/7beb65a5-87c3-4247-a1e9-beb03b4d9c02/ https://minutesof.com/q/7beb65a5-87c3-4247-a1e9-beb03b4d9c02/ “Meta's gonna spend 20,000,000,000 in one year alone on ARVR, and this is on an entire platform. So I I don't know.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 03 Mar 2023 18:43:00 +0000 Gerstner questions why OpenAI took a dilutive $10B round at roughly $30B valuation. https://minutesof.com/q/c6c852c0-882a-4483-a6da-1c564e61d18b/ https://minutesof.com/q/c6c852c0-882a-4483-a6da-1c564e61d18b/ “what was their motivation to take such a dilutive round, know, the 10,000,000,000 at what was the valuation at 30?” — All-In Podcast Fri, 03 Mar 2023 18:43:00 +0000 Gerstner notes Salesforce employee count grew from 19,000 in 2015 to 80,000, a 4x increase in seven years. https://minutesof.com/q/0795a866-bb1c-4b92-bcf1-e4ecee1c9fb2/ https://minutesof.com/q/0795a866-bb1c-4b92-bcf1-e4ecee1c9fb2/ “if you look at the employee count at Salesforce, in 2015 they had 19,000 employees. As of last year they had 80,000. In seven years they four x the number of employees.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 03 Mar 2023 18:43:00 +0000 Gerstner highlights Coinbase's stock-based compensation reached 70% of revenue, not just earnings. https://minutesof.com/q/0e5cf166-19f5-4c41-8a42-d69824d44b56/ https://minutesof.com/q/0e5cf166-19f5-4c41-8a42-d69824d44b56/ “Coinbase, I think, just reported SBC, which hold your hat, socks, was 70% of revenue. Not 70% of their earnings, 70% of their revenue.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 03 Mar 2023 18:43:00 +0000 Gerstner details ByteDance financials: $120B revenue, $25B profit similar to Meta, US TikTok only $3-4B. https://minutesof.com/q/e2c8167c-e138-4428-85de-bf41d4de25ba/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2c8167c-e138-4428-85de-bf41d4de25ba/ “So a 120,000,000,000 top line. It's also been leaked that in that TikTok is about 14,000,000,000 of that and that US TikTok is 3 to 4,000,000,000.” — All-In Podcast Fri, 03 Mar 2023 18:43:00 +0000 Gerstner states a 1% change in interest rates causes 15-20% change in valuation multiples. https://minutesof.com/q/4d290681-0331-4424-8f28-5f37703b0250/ https://minutesof.com/q/4d290681-0331-4424-8f28-5f37703b0250/ “the iron law of investing is interest rates. A 1% change in rates leads to a 15 or 20% change in a multiple.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 Gerstner argues used car prices jumped from $20,000 to $29,000 due to stimulus. https://minutesof.com/q/c232add3-5914-48d1-9c5a-f8b06069ff85/ https://minutesof.com/q/c232add3-5914-48d1-9c5a-f8b06069ff85/ “The price for a used car was $20,000 for ten years. And then just coincidentally, alright, they give us a bunch of Red Bull and the price goes to $29,000.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 Gerstner shows home affordability fell from $350,000 to $240,000 for same monthly payment. https://minutesof.com/q/14cc426a-7772-44a1-8fcc-19b463962dc0/ https://minutesof.com/q/14cc426a-7772-44a1-8fcc-19b463962dc0/ “Somebody who can afford to pay $1,200 a month in December could afford a $350,000 home, today can afford a $240,000 home.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 Gerstner found only 21 public software companies exceed $2B revenue and $25B value. https://minutesof.com/q/39a63540-50d9-49f7-b60b-83a040ae859c/ https://minutesof.com/q/39a63540-50d9-49f7-b60b-83a040ae859c/ “Public software companies over 2,000,000,000 in revenue, we got to 21. Okay? There are only 21 that are worth more than $25,000,000,000” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 Gerstner distributed $6B last year, exceeding total capital raised in first five funds. https://minutesof.com/q/8858e0b7-b1db-4124-82e5-3201c2af67cb/ https://minutesof.com/q/8858e0b7-b1db-4124-82e5-3201c2af67cb/ “Last year, we distributed over $6,000,000,000, which was more than all the venture we raised in our first five funds.” — All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 Gerstner reports the Fed expects 2% negative real rates by year-end, with 4.3% inflation and 2.3% ten-year rat https://minutesof.com/q/f38b9dbb-5996-43e1-a51d-292247c244a4/ https://minutesof.com/q/f38b9dbb-5996-43e1-a51d-292247c244a4/ “They said we expect inflation exiting the year to be 4.3 and we expect the ten year to be around 2.3.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 26 Mar 2022 05:49:32 +0000 Gerstner predicts most IPOs in the next twelve months will price below their last private round. https://minutesof.com/q/ac0f21aa-d91a-4b2b-8e67-6fdd86f552dd/ https://minutesof.com/q/ac0f21aa-d91a-4b2b-8e67-6fdd86f552dd/ “majority of companies that come public in the next twelve months are going out below their last” — All-In Podcast Sat, 26 Mar 2022 05:49:32 +0000 Gerstner cites Snowflake growing free cash flow over 100% annually with Q4 revenue of $1.4B versus $1.2B prior https://minutesof.com/q/74084f05-22c6-49ba-aa9e-af0823786082/ https://minutesof.com/q/74084f05-22c6-49ba-aa9e-af0823786082/ “Snowflake this year will grow its free cash flow at over a 100% a year, next year probably, you know, 80 or 90%. Free cash flow, not just revenue, free cash flow.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 26 Mar 2022 05:49:32 +0000 Gerstner says he won't invest late-stage now due to lack of price discovery, only early-stage at low valuation https://minutesof.com/q/98237a3c-6f82-4647-a101-9d2562360a06/ https://minutesof.com/q/98237a3c-6f82-4647-a101-9d2562360a06/ “You couldn't pry a late stage dollar out of my hand right now because I don't think we have real price discovery going on.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 26 Mar 2022 05:49:32 +0000 Gerstner describes Blinken doctrine as imposing overwhelming economic costs for strategic failure, not regime https://minutesof.com/q/5d3062ec-b542-4fa6-a07a-2391f0d52a5f/ https://minutesof.com/q/5d3062ec-b542-4fa6-a07a-2391f0d52a5f/ “He said our objective is we have the power to impose overwhelming costs on our target. Okay, economic costs. And he said our cause Putin's actions are remembered as a strategic failure, not regime change.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 26 Mar 2022 05:49:32 +0000 Gerstner argues the Fed is behind the curve on recession rather than inflation, citing massive demand destruct https://minutesof.com/q/3c5532d8-cf97-4388-84d3-94027d5976c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/3c5532d8-cf97-4388-84d3-94027d5976c6/ “I tweeted a few weeks ago, the Fed's probably behind the curve on recession, not inflation. Right? We have massive demand destruction going on right now in The US economy.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 26 Mar 2022 05:49:32 +0000 Gerstner illustrates demand destruction: $1,200 monthly payment bought $350K house in December, now only $295K https://minutesof.com/q/0e4fe4b8-37b8-44ec-8381-00a15cec7493/ https://minutesof.com/q/0e4fe4b8-37b8-44ec-8381-00a15cec7493/ “Just the increase in the thirty year mortgage means you're buying power in December, four months ago, to buy a house and you if you could afford $1,200 a month, that buying power bought you a $350,000 house. Today, it buys you a $295,000 house.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 26 Mar 2022 05:49:32 +0000 Gerstner says traditional IPO costs include upfront fees and structural underpricing as the larger expense. https://minutesof.com/q/3dbad0db-cb6d-4522-8252-555ce873667e/ https://minutesof.com/q/3dbad0db-cb6d-4522-8252-555ce873667e/ “There's the upfront fee, five and a half, 6%, whatever they're paying on the amount of capital raised. But he would argue the much bigger expense, right, is the indirect cost of the structural underpricing.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 17 Apr 2021 02:12:13 +0000 Gerstner claims Grab achieved 20-30% higher valuation than traditional IPO would have delivered. https://minutesof.com/q/1f80f6be-1b5e-4c09-9c2f-60fbd59744c4/ https://minutesof.com/q/1f80f6be-1b5e-4c09-9c2f-60fbd59744c4/ “So in a traditional IPO, let's say you have a $10,000,000,000 enterprise value raising a billion dollars. If it's being underpriced, he would argue structurally by 40%.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 17 Apr 2021 02:12:13 +0000 Gerstner calculates over $1 billion in cost savings for Grab employees and shareholders. https://minutesof.com/q/077705ea-6293-4456-a39a-7cef97e489dc/ https://minutesof.com/q/077705ea-6293-4456-a39a-7cef97e489dc/ “And so if you say it's 30 percent on a $4,000,000,000 raise, that's over a billion dollars of savings. Right? Over $1,000,000,000 of indirect cost savings to the employees and the shareholders.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 17 Apr 2021 02:12:13 +0000 Gerstner expects more multiple compression in public markets over next three months despite Tiger's activity. https://minutesof.com/q/2fe26062-d6e3-480c-a0c1-dc602e6cb49e/ https://minutesof.com/q/2fe26062-d6e3-480c-a0c1-dc602e6cb49e/ “You can believe the next three months that we're likely to have more multiple compression in the public markets. Right?” — All-In Podcast Sat, 17 Apr 2021 02:12:13 +0000 Gerstner calls access to top tech companies the most asymmetric bet in investing history. https://minutesof.com/q/12521fe7-c99c-4174-b90e-043c6596236a/ https://minutesof.com/q/12521fe7-c99c-4174-b90e-043c6596236a/ “The the the most asymmetric bet maybe in the history of all of investing is having a golden ticket to have access to the best technology companies in the world today.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 17 Apr 2021 02:12:13 +0000 Gerstner recounts passing on 21.co deal with Andreessen when Bitcoin was at $1,100 in 2014. https://minutesof.com/q/bd09892a-7692-4a7d-84e7-a90962f4ed17/ https://minutesof.com/q/bd09892a-7692-4a7d-84e7-a90962f4ed17/ “So we're looking at a deal with, Andreessen, because I thought Balaji was one of the smartest people in the space. The company was called twenty one dot co.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 17 Apr 2021 02:12:13 +0000 Gerstner proposes putting up $10-15 million to incubate Invest America accounts directly instead of lobbying. https://minutesof.com/q/54c59dbd-325a-4374-8100-5f603df4baee/ https://minutesof.com/q/54c59dbd-325a-4374-8100-5f603df4baee/ “I don't wanna go spend 10,000,000 in Washington to lobby them to create the Invest America account. Let's you and I put up the money. Let's incubate this.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 17 Apr 2021 02:12:13 +0000 Gerstner criticizes traditional IPOs as year-long processes where companies don't know pricing or shareholders https://minutesof.com/q/b8e2bc10-b138-4cff-a292-03380a754fd5/ https://minutesof.com/q/b8e2bc10-b138-4cff-a292-03380a754fd5/ “It's a year long process where you don't know the price for your shares or even who your shareholders are going to be until the end of the line.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner argues traditional IPO bank fees of 6-7% plus historical-only financials leave investors unable to ev https://minutesof.com/q/7a335747-8969-4383-9c35-9996e0362046/ https://minutesof.com/q/7a335747-8969-4383-9c35-9996e0362046/ “And on top of that, of course, you can only give historical financials, which leaves most investors in the dark about a high growth company's future prospects.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner argues Altimeter's SPAC approach takes companies public faster by acting as owners rather than agents https://minutesof.com/q/bc504d07-e7d7-4e71-a4f0-18a40915d337/ https://minutesof.com/q/bc504d07-e7d7-4e71-a4f0-18a40915d337/ “We don't act like agents, we act like owners. We're totally aligned with you. So I mean, we can get you public in a fraction of the time,” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner says Altimeter's SPAC model lets founders set their own price and select their shareholders. https://minutesof.com/q/a08000b3-32b1-47f4-8417-00e927572da2/ https://minutesof.com/q/a08000b3-32b1-47f4-8417-00e927572da2/ “You set the price, you tell the story with forward looking forecasts. We serve up a world class group of mutual funds and hedge funds as your shareholders. You ring the bell, it's your IPO.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner says Altimeter's SPAC model lets companies set their own price and charges zero fees to the company. https://minutesof.com/q/8f768927-4c84-4634-82e2-40d39aecedf2/ https://minutesof.com/q/8f768927-4c84-4634-82e2-40d39aecedf2/ “You set the price, you tell the story with forward looking forecasts. We serve up a world class group of mutual funds and hedge funds as your shareholders.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner emphasizes Altimeter charges zero fees to companies going public via SPAC. https://minutesof.com/q/38cd9fb6-d18e-4efc-b5b0-d3e6e7675de5/ https://minutesof.com/q/38cd9fb6-d18e-4efc-b5b0-d3e6e7675de5/ “And while the day of the IPO and the day after the IPO are nearly identical as if a bank took you public, we don't charge your company a fee. None. Zero.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner emphasizes Altimeter's SPAC charges companies zero fees while delivering outcomes identical to tradit https://minutesof.com/q/28218f6b-02d9-4726-8e22-dadf0a9f9f98/ https://minutesof.com/q/28218f6b-02d9-4726-8e22-dadf0a9f9f98/ “while the day of the IPO and the day after the IPO are nearly identical as if a bank took you public, we don't charge your company a fee. None. Zero.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner explains SPAC costs are borne by SPAC shareholders through share dilution, not by the company going p https://minutesof.com/q/1b7dab41-fb30-48fd-af5d-1cf29252840a/ https://minutesof.com/q/1b7dab41-fb30-48fd-af5d-1cf29252840a/ “All the costs are borne by the shareholders of the SPAC who gave us part of their shares when we set up the SPAC as a finder's fee for helping them invest in a world class company.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner describes SPAC fee structure where shareholders pay via dilution, similar to VC fund economics. https://minutesof.com/q/e687cfc9-521d-4b81-a6d4-df5f7565549e/ https://minutesof.com/q/e687cfc9-521d-4b81-a6d4-df5f7565549e/ “I mean, it's very similar to our VC funds where we get paid for helping our investors invest in companies like Snowflake.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner describes identifying the post-internet data explosion trend nearly a decade ago as foundation for Sn https://minutesof.com/q/ae1908ae-e819-4c54-9cf0-ec2f373b1935/ https://minutesof.com/q/ae1908ae-e819-4c54-9cf0-ec2f373b1935/ “when we started thinking about the biggest trends, this was almost a decade ago, the post internet trends, the explosion of data, and how we make sense out of data to yield useful insights.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner recalls when next-day sales reports felt like magic as CEO of NLG. https://minutesof.com/q/f2487303-1ed7-41c2-82fc-7c3a214b4f0f/ https://minutesof.com/q/f2487303-1ed7-41c2-82fc-7c3a214b4f0f/ “I remember when I was CEO of NLG, just having a system like Cognos that could give me a report the next day of what we actually sold the day before felt like magic.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner dismisses valuation concerns for Snowflake at 100x forward sales given 100%+ growth in strategic soft https://minutesof.com/q/0921d69d-1510-4317-a6f7-1afd8a7e5b45/ https://minutesof.com/q/0921d69d-1510-4317-a6f7-1afd8a7e5b45/ “No growth investor would listen to that and think that there's anything unusual about a company growing well over a 100% in the most strategic location of all of software.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner reports Altimeter's software index expanded from 11x to 14.5x and internet index from 23x to 33x. https://minutesof.com/q/64fcaa5d-d009-4d3a-aba6-3d2b9a72e56e/ https://minutesof.com/q/64fcaa5d-d009-4d3a-aba6-3d2b9a72e56e/ “I feel obliged to do that. We started the year in our gross software index at 11 times. Now we're at about 14 and a half times two year forward.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner reports software multiples expanded from 11x to 14.5x and internet from 23x to 33x in 2020. https://minutesof.com/q/8c4b062a-9459-4d8b-907f-8d77313b6412/ https://minutesof.com/q/8c4b062a-9459-4d8b-907f-8d77313b6412/ “We started the year in our gross software index at 11 times. Now we're at about 14 and a half times two year forward.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner notes internet multiples expanded from 23x to 33x in 2020, mirroring 2018 Q4 contraction without COVI https://minutesof.com/q/55002a1e-d10f-4459-b878-14704edb3db8/ https://minutesof.com/q/55002a1e-d10f-4459-b878-14704edb3db8/ “If you look at the multiple expansion that's occurred, it's almost the identical mirror image of the multiple contraction that occurred in the fall of twenty eighteen. In Q4 twenty eighteen, we didn't have COVID.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner argues 2020 multiple expansion mirrors 2018 contraction when Nasdaq fell 25% without earnings misses. https://minutesof.com/q/daf435a6-e8cc-452a-8dee-a5b76a1ce075/ https://minutesof.com/q/daf435a6-e8cc-452a-8dee-a5b76a1ce075/ “If you look at the multiple expansion that's occurred, it's almost the identical mirror image of the multiple contraction that occurred in the fall of twenty eighteen.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner argues markets correctly priced digital transformation arc despite initial concerns after 50% bounce https://minutesof.com/q/f686692d-04c2-44c6-bc38-135e7cb0e021/ https://minutesof.com/q/f686692d-04c2-44c6-bc38-135e7cb0e021/ “What it has been slow in pricing in is how dramatically different the arc will be for many of these digital businesses. I remember having conversations with Rich and many others in May.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner reports 60 companies pledged to add Black or Latino directors within eight weeks of launch. https://minutesof.com/q/cb5c660e-1d37-4c16-b836-83ce8553c490/ https://minutesof.com/q/cb5c660e-1d37-4c16-b836-83ce8553c490/ “So here we are eight weeks into this undertaking, we've had over 60 companies now take the pledge, five companies including Zillow that stepped up.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner sets goal of 500 companies pledging to add diverse directors within one year. https://minutesof.com/q/4543ae44-822f-4775-a955-6e13f8216640/ https://minutesof.com/q/4543ae44-822f-4775-a955-6e13f8216640/ “Our goal is that within a year we have 500 companies who've taken the pledge and that we begin changing the corporate consciousness.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner argues backlash against capitalism stems from technology revolution displacing human labor, not capit https://minutesof.com/q/947329e8-4130-4bf5-ab5b-9a62051076ea/ https://minutesof.com/q/947329e8-4130-4bf5-ab5b-9a62051076ea/ “I would argue that's not really a feature of capitalism so much as it's a feature of a technology revolution.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner warns AI and ML will increase productivity but concentrate wealth distribution even more than today. https://minutesof.com/q/823c7162-0b03-49aa-a59b-2ff282b08a9c/ https://minutesof.com/q/823c7162-0b03-49aa-a59b-2ff282b08a9c/ “Global wealth, as measured by the mountain of labor and capital that exists in the world, the conveniences that will be available to people will be better than they've ever been before, but the distribution of those will be way more concentrated” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner predicts global wealth will increase but distribution will become more concentrated due to technology https://minutesof.com/q/5efd8221-e7b8-46b2-972a-8c2d0e9de083/ https://minutesof.com/q/5efd8221-e7b8-46b2-972a-8c2d0e9de083/ “Global wealth, as measured by the mountain of labor and capital that exists in the world, the conveniences that will be available to people will be better than they've ever been before, but the distribution of those will be way more concentrated as we've already seen.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 We started investing in it when it was a billion dollar business and Priceline became the single largest globa https://minutesof.com/q/0f66f61a-9a67-4675-8d25-65690eea292a/ https://minutesof.com/q/0f66f61a-9a67-4675-8d25-65690eea292a/ “We started investing in it when it was a billion dollar business and Priceline became the single largest global advertiser on Google and build a $100,000,000,000 vertical search business” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner says Priceline built a $100 billion vertical search business by becoming Google's largest global adve https://minutesof.com/q/67ac627d-b130-4341-b74b-dd0fcccd01b0/ https://minutesof.com/q/67ac627d-b130-4341-b74b-dd0fcccd01b0/ “We started investing in it when it was a billion dollar business and Priceline became the single largest global advertiser on Google and build a $100,000,000,000 vertical search business by providing better access to hotels and hotel inventory” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner invested in Priceline at $1B valuation; it became Google's largest advertiser and built a $100B busin https://minutesof.com/q/098e1ac2-b297-43ec-a11a-18ecbbe924bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/098e1ac2-b297-43ec-a11a-18ecbbe924bc/ “We started investing in it when it was a billion dollar business and Priceline became the single largest global advertiser on Google and build a $100,000,000,000 vertical search business by providing better access to hotels and hotel inventory but that business would not have existed without Google.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner says Priceline built a $100 billion vertical search business by becoming Google's largest global adve https://minutesof.com/q/7530b449-2928-4867-9fba-87508aa32465/ https://minutesof.com/q/7530b449-2928-4867-9fba-87508aa32465/ “We started investing in it when it was a billion dollar business and Priceline became the single largest global advertiser on Google and build a $100,000,000,000 vertical search business by providing better access to hotels” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner notes Baidu lost 50% of value while other Chinese platforms multiplied due to WeChat and ByteDance. https://minutesof.com/q/e10a426c-583b-414a-bba0-e9c68be67eb2/ https://minutesof.com/q/e10a426c-583b-414a-bba0-e9c68be67eb2/ “I mean, Baidu's worth 50% less today than it was six years ago. Notwithstanding the fact that all of the big internet platforms in China are worth multiples today of what they were five years ago because you had the rise of WeChat, you had the rise of ByteDance,” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner says Facebook became Altimeter's largest position in 2012 and remains so today based on shift from se https://minutesof.com/q/5ab90638-7961-4960-807d-e6adb856e50c/ https://minutesof.com/q/5ab90638-7961-4960-807d-e6adb856e50c/ “Facebook became our largest position in 2012 while we managed the position over a period of time, it's still our largest position in the fund today.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner notes top internet companies grew from 5% of Nasdaq in 2006 to 35% today. https://minutesof.com/q/364a89c5-3793-49f8-bc0f-e3d4c480f0ca/ https://minutesof.com/q/364a89c5-3793-49f8-bc0f-e3d4c480f0ca/ “In 2006, the top six or seven global Internet companies represented about 5% of the Nasdaq. Today, they represent about 35% of the Nasdaq. So the big have gotten bigger at an accelerating rate,” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner notes top internet companies grew from 5% of Nasdaq in 2006 to 35% today. https://minutesof.com/q/5e657191-ce94-49a3-a8f4-7aa9daf186b3/ https://minutesof.com/q/5e657191-ce94-49a3-a8f4-7aa9daf186b3/ “In 2006, the top six or seven global Internet companies represented about 5% of the Nasdaq. Today, they represent about 35% of the Nasdaq.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner warns his team that being too early on investments is as dangerous as being too late. https://minutesof.com/q/17e528fc-9a14-4b9c-acd2-5f1673f9daea/ https://minutesof.com/q/17e528fc-9a14-4b9c-acd2-5f1673f9daea/ “When we think about the future we're always paying attention you know one thing that I would say is I remind my team it's just as dangerous to be too early as it is to be too late.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner notes Google compounded at similar rates to other platforms despite his early worries about search's https://minutesof.com/q/2d758c7e-a625-4da6-bf6e-ccdd27c708d4/ https://minutesof.com/q/2d758c7e-a625-4da6-bf6e-ccdd27c708d4/ “And I was talking of I was worried about the future of search and the future of vertical search starting in 2010, But look at Google's compounded at about the rate the other big platforms have in The US.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner warns his team that being too early on a trend is as dangerous as being too late. https://minutesof.com/q/8e0c196b-bfc0-4efe-ad27-28128dde9827/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e0c196b-bfc0-4efe-ad27-28128dde9827/ “And I was talking of I was worried about the future of search and the future of vertical search starting in 2010,” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner deployed hundreds of millions into private software in late March/early April 2020 during COVID crisi https://minutesof.com/q/2d4045c8-aded-46ec-ade5-83517a0e349c/ https://minutesof.com/q/2d4045c8-aded-46ec-ade5-83517a0e349c/ “During periods of crisis like we've experienced over the last ninety days, I mean we put hundreds of millions of dollars to work in the private software market at the end of March and early April, because we weren't thinking about the next six minutes or the next six weeks” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner says Uber's rideshare EBITDA margins went from negative 20% to over 30% in six quarters. https://minutesof.com/q/f5cc2159-f6f7-49c5-b1ac-41466418dd38/ https://minutesof.com/q/f5cc2159-f6f7-49c5-b1ac-41466418dd38/ “Uber just reported their quarterly reports and I think their segment EBITDA margins in January and February for rideshare were over 30%. I believe six quarters earlier, they were negative 20%.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner says Uber's rideshare margins went from negative 20% to over 30% in six quarters. https://minutesof.com/q/c561f67f-6295-4adb-adea-74b83da1688a/ https://minutesof.com/q/c561f67f-6295-4adb-adea-74b83da1688a/ “I think their segment EBITDA margins in January and February for rideshare were over 30%. I believe six quarters earlier, they were negative 20%.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner argues AWS, GCP and Azure enable software companies to reach much higher IPO valuations than Salesfor https://minutesof.com/q/5aa463e2-dd38-4002-921d-8db5149a470c/ https://minutesof.com/q/5aa463e2-dd38-4002-921d-8db5149a470c/ “Compare where the software companies that are in the pipeline or that have recently gone public, compare those valuations to where Salesforce went public.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner argues AWS, GCP and Azure enable software companies to scale faster than previous generations like Sa https://minutesof.com/q/c210d6f2-8837-42d5-b740-5e5cc79d99da/ https://minutesof.com/q/c210d6f2-8837-42d5-b740-5e5cc79d99da/ “But the fact of the matter is because of AWS, GCP and Azure, software companies are scaling faster” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner argues AWS, GCP and Azure enable software companies to scale faster and more capital efficiently than https://minutesof.com/q/44e49c41-c433-42d3-b373-5aa3215c29a8/ https://minutesof.com/q/44e49c41-c433-42d3-b373-5aa3215c29a8/ “But the fact of the matter is because of AWS, GCP and Azure, software companies are scaling faster and in a more capital efficient way” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner argues large investors must be in private markets to capture value; notes inability to sell as advant https://minutesof.com/q/5ac2fd6a-97ab-4187-a854-9726e46237e4/ https://minutesof.com/q/5ac2fd6a-97ab-4187-a854-9726e46237e4/ “If you want if you're Fidelity, if you're TRO, if you're one of these companies that wants to participate in all of that value creation, you can't not be in the private markets.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner reveals Altimeter came within $100-200M of investing in Zoom's pre-IPO round but missed it. https://minutesof.com/q/65012c0d-a1ad-40ac-98d2-05e5795a21c5/ https://minutesof.com/q/65012c0d-a1ad-40ac-98d2-05e5795a21c5/ “I'll give you this example. We were within probably a 100 or $200,000,000 of doing a meaningful pre IPO round in Zoom.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner nearly invested in Zoom pre-IPO at $5 billion valuation, emphasizing need for disciplined frameworks. https://minutesof.com/q/69900875-de92-41a1-8afb-4b6d524e883a/ https://minutesof.com/q/69900875-de92-41a1-8afb-4b6d524e883a/ “We were within probably a 100 or $200,000,000 of doing a meaningful pre IPO round in Zoom. The company was valued at around $5,000,000,000 compared to where it is two years later.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 Gerstner calculates that 150 bps lower discount rates should add two to three turns to software multiples. https://minutesof.com/q/729c0b3e-080d-4004-8072-b161f297cea3/ https://minutesof.com/q/729c0b3e-080d-4004-8072-b161f297cea3/ “If I reduce my discount rate on any growth software company by 150 bps over the next ten years, the multiple will go up by two to three turns, right?” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000