The Minutes of Brad Gerstner on forecasting https://minutesof.com/brad-gerstner/on/forecasting/ Everything Brad Gerstner has said on forecasting: 6 verbatim quotes between September 2023 and June 2025, each with a timestamp and a link to the… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:21:50 +0000 Gerstner notes 1990s experts wrongly predicted debt-to-GDP would rise to 80%; instead it fell from 60 to 40. https://minutesof.com/q/f7e5ee2a-9317-45ec-a0c6-e02fddeffd5d/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7e5ee2a-9317-45ec-a0c6-e02fddeffd5d/ “in 1993, debt to GDP was supposed to go from 40 to or 60 to 80 by experts, it in fact went from 60 to 40. Yes. So experts can be wrong by a lot.” — BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 forecasting Gerstner says NVIDIA EPS was forecast at $5.70 but ended up at $25, far exceeding expectations. https://minutesof.com/q/38b29e1c-3a61-4adf-aacc-fe77f8b01aab/ https://minutesof.com/q/38b29e1c-3a61-4adf-aacc-fe77f8b01aab/ “The EPS at the beginning of last year, the earnings per share was expected to be $5.70, and now it looks like it's gonna be $25.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:29:00 +0000 forecasting Gerstner cites Morgan Stanley research showing super cycles are systematically underestimated by about 40% at https://minutesof.com/q/db7151b5-6f29-4261-b2d7-b9e1d1dcbb8f/ https://minutesof.com/q/db7151b5-6f29-4261-b2d7-b9e1d1dcbb8f/ “When I think about what's going on here of course they show they went back and did some math against initial estimates and said, you know, super cycles are about 40% underestimated at the start.” — BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 forecasting Gerstner recalls NVIDIA data center revenue forecasts shifted from -6% to +25% last year. https://minutesof.com/q/3b798c64-1de6-4f61-baf9-1f2a35b1da5d/ https://minutesof.com/q/3b798c64-1de6-4f61-baf9-1f2a35b1da5d/ “Think about NVIDIA at the start of last year. Data center revenues were expected to shrink by 6%. Right?” — CNBC Television Mon, 29 Jan 2024 23:20:37 +0000 forecasting Gerstner says Altimeter's NVIDIA numbers remain well above Street consensus for this year. https://minutesof.com/q/95ed61dd-41b7-4aeb-82fb-045a18618f18/ https://minutesof.com/q/95ed61dd-41b7-4aeb-82fb-045a18618f18/ “Our numbers are still well above the street for this year. I think there's a lot of doubt. You know, the the common, discussion at the end of last year” — CNBC Television Mon, 29 Jan 2024 23:20:37 +0000 forecasting Gerstner cites Kashkari's June 2021 forecast of no rate hikes until 2024 as evidence of Fed miscalculation. https://minutesof.com/q/472c426b-85d3-4279-90be-5d543ca9080f/ https://minutesof.com/q/472c426b-85d3-4279-90be-5d543ca9080f/ “He says we're not gonna have rate hikes until 2024. That's how wrong the Fed's forecast was in June 2021 because they were making the argument that inflation was transient.” — CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:12:52 +0000 forecasting