The Minutes of Dylan Patel on asml https://minutesof.com/dylan-patel/on/asml/ Everything Dylan Patel has said on asml: 11 verbatim quotes between October 2023 and August 2026, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording it… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:22:17 +0000 Patel calculates three and a half EUV tools are needed to produce one gigawatt of AI capacity. https://minutesof.com/q/504ff59f-223b-47eb-ab73-008b5cc61137/ https://minutesof.com/q/504ff59f-223b-47eb-ab73-008b5cc61137/ “you end up with actually, I need about three and a half EUV tools to do the 2,000,000 EUV wafer passes for the gigawatt. So three and a half EUV tools satisfies the gigawatt.” — Dwarkesh Patel Fri, 13 Mar 2026 16:26:57 +0000 asml Patel shows that $50 billion in data center capacity depends on just $1.2 billion worth of EUV tools. https://minutesof.com/q/e589275c-5851-49fe-955a-9b06c45e05bf/ https://minutesof.com/q/e589275c-5851-49fe-955a-9b06c45e05bf/ “I need about three and a half EUV tools to do the 2,000,000 EUV wafer passes for the gigawatt. So three and a half EUV tools satisfies the gigawatt.” — Dwarkesh Patel Fri, 13 Mar 2026 16:26:57 +0000 asml Patel calculates one gigawatt of AI capacity requires only 3.5 EUV tools costing $1.2B. https://minutesof.com/q/bf41b665-1668-499b-9836-478566fcb606/ https://minutesof.com/q/bf41b665-1668-499b-9836-478566fcb606/ “Because we're talking oh, what's a gigawatt cost? It costs like $50,000,000,000 roughly. Right? Whereas, what does three and a half EUV tools cost? That's like 1.2.” — Dwarkesh Patel Fri, 13 Mar 2026 16:26:57 +0000 asml Patel estimates total EUV capacity by 2030 enables 200 gigawatts of AI chips, with Altman seeking 52 gigawatts https://minutesof.com/q/89d41218-810f-4ed7-b989-4c5230ba4930/ https://minutesof.com/q/89d41218-810f-4ed7-b989-4c5230ba4930/ “700 EUV tools, three and a half tools per gigawatt, assuming it's all allocated to AI, which it's not, but three and a half tools per gigawatt gets you to 200 gigawatts worth of AI chips for the data centers to deploy. Right? So 200 gigawatts, Sam wants 50 gigawatts, right, 52 gigawatts a year.” — Dwarkesh Patel Fri, 13 Mar 2026 16:26:57 +0000 asml Patel reports ASML had 45% of equipment and more of revenue from China despite export controls. https://minutesof.com/q/6d450b52-b2bc-457a-ae6e-52cf7219326f/ https://minutesof.com/q/6d450b52-b2bc-457a-ae6e-52cf7219326f/ “On equipment though, last year ASML, many quarters they've had 45% of their equipment and even more of their revenue come from China.” — Special Competitive Studies Project Thu, 13 Mar 2025 16:42:15 +0000 asml Patel reports ASML had 45% of equipment and more of revenue from China despite export controls. https://minutesof.com/q/89c9d86f-ca5b-45bd-b16f-f7837e38d48f/ https://minutesof.com/q/89c9d86f-ca5b-45bd-b16f-f7837e38d48f/ “On equipment though, last year ASML, many quarters they've had 45% of their equipment and even more of their revenue come from China. And likewise for ASML, Lam Research and all these companies, right?” — Special Competitive Studies Project Thu, 13 Mar 2025 16:42:15 +0000 asml Patel notes the unrestricted 1980i tool continues receiving upgrades through 2023, creating a regulatory looph https://minutesof.com/q/78d6a540-b866-4c76-b5e3-da9f0e853aaa/ https://minutesof.com/q/78d6a540-b866-4c76-b5e3-da9f0e853aaa/ “But remember the 1980i has continued to be upgraded and there's an upgraded version in 2023, right? And that tool, sort of the line is in between those tool, right?” — Hidden Forces Wed, 04 Oct 2023 14:00:36 +0000 asml Patel says ASML projects China will reach 30% semiconductor market share, displacing Western suppliers and cre https://minutesof.com/q/3c2975c4-a35a-47bb-934c-c115dfc88c6a/ https://minutesof.com/q/3c2975c4-a35a-47bb-934c-c115dfc88c6a/ “And, you know, of course it makes sense for them. Right? Like, let me have my own domestic industry, but it's gonna create an excess supply dynamic.” — Hidden Forces Wed, 04 Oct 2023 14:00:36 +0000 asml Patel says ASML projects China will grow from under ten percent to thirty percent chip manufacturing market sh https://minutesof.com/q/db4011a8-5ecf-48bf-830e-72b29bc57d6a/ https://minutesof.com/q/db4011a8-5ecf-48bf-830e-72b29bc57d6a/ “Go from sub 10% market share in the chip industry to somewhere around 30% market share in the manufacturing industry, right?” — Hidden Forces Wed, 04 Oct 2023 14:00:36 +0000 asml