The Minutes of Dylan Patel on capex https://minutesof.com/dylan-patel/on/capex/ Everything Dylan Patel has said on capex: 14 verbatim quotes between April 2025 and August 2026, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording it came… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:22:17 +0000 Patel forecasts AI CapEx will exceed $2 trillion by 2028, up from just over $1 trillion in 2025. https://minutesof.com/q/87380cb5-ef13-4f9a-b24b-646ce43d9ba9/ https://minutesof.com/q/87380cb5-ef13-4f9a-b24b-646ce43d9ba9/ “As we go forward into the future, the the numbers for computer ballooning, right, we're at, you know, you know, a little bit over a trillion dollars of CapEx this year.” — Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 capex Patel predicts AI labs will scale from tens of billions to trillions in annual spending by decade's end. https://minutesof.com/q/fd6d2eb3-da00-477c-8bfe-4ac144bc044d/ https://minutesof.com/q/fd6d2eb3-da00-477c-8bfe-4ac144bc044d/ “As we go out into '28, it's gonna be more than $2,000,000,000,000. The labs are also taking an increasing percentage of this.” — Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 capex Patel estimates $3-4 trillion total CapEx needed by 2028 across compute, data centers, and energy infrastructu https://minutesof.com/q/e39a19f2-49bb-43b6-a901-e9fbd413a084/ https://minutesof.com/q/e39a19f2-49bb-43b6-a901-e9fbd413a084/ “So to enable, let's say, that 100 gigawatts by 2030 or let's even like let's even like pare it down to 2028 where it's like 3 or $4,000,000,000,000 of CapEx across all of these items.” — Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 capex Patel questions where $3-4 trillion in CapEx will come from for 2028 AI infrastructure buildout. https://minutesof.com/q/98c3bd9c-c70c-401a-b52d-19dfc1b20e62/ https://minutesof.com/q/98c3bd9c-c70c-401a-b52d-19dfc1b20e62/ “So if you're at 3 or $4,000,000,000,000 of CapEx, where does all this cash come from?” — Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 capex Patel identifies multi-trillion dollar funding gap as hyperscalers exhaust cash flows and raise debt. https://minutesof.com/q/924c9e94-b365-4a18-9a8d-a5628329ee05/ https://minutesof.com/q/924c9e94-b365-4a18-9a8d-a5628329ee05/ “No one is generating that much cash from the business yet. Right? Hyperscalers, they funded all of the growth up until now. Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta.” — Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 capex Patel's models show $11 trillion AI CapEx through 2029, requiring over $5 trillion in new debt. https://minutesof.com/q/19475f58-3551-48c1-8f14-1441b116b5aa/ https://minutesof.com/q/19475f58-3551-48c1-8f14-1441b116b5aa/ “In the modeling that we do, we have about $11,000,000,000,000 of CapEx from 2024 to 2029. Total. Total.” — Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 capex Patel predicts Google will eliminate its $100 billion annual cash flow next year by spending everything on AI https://minutesof.com/q/a7bb132e-83bc-40b6-b700-cf2f048e334f/ https://minutesof.com/q/a7bb132e-83bc-40b6-b700-cf2f048e334f/ “Google will have no cash flow next year because they're they see AI so clearly, and they know that they need to spend every dollar they make on compute,” — Matthew Berman Mon, 09 Mar 2026 17:07:47 +0000 capex Patel says Google spending $180B and Amazon $200B on AI infrastructure represents 4x increase from recent year https://minutesof.com/q/eac21179-024f-4ae9-8db2-3eee00972211/ https://minutesof.com/q/eac21179-024f-4ae9-8db2-3eee00972211/ “If we start looking at like, hey, this year, Google spending 2 Amazon spending $200,000,000,000, Google spending a $180,000,000,000 on on AI infrastructure primarily. Right?” — Latent Space Thu, 26 Feb 2026 21:15:18 +0000 capex Patel calculates $100B AI revenue requires $250B infrastructure spend at five-year depreciation, double curren https://minutesof.com/q/b206ab39-c11b-4186-80e2-7930fb9768d1/ https://minutesof.com/q/b206ab39-c11b-4186-80e2-7930fb9768d1/ “That $50,000,000,000 of COGS needs to burn on infra, which cost roughly with if a five if you're talking about five year depreciation, call it $250,000,000,000, right, of infra Yeah. For a $100,000,000,000 of revenue.” — The MAD Podcast with Matt Turck Thu, 05 Feb 2026 13:30:16 +0000 capex Patel calculates $100B AI revenue requires $250B infrastructure with five-year depreciation at 50% margins. https://minutesof.com/q/a42225be-7133-4459-8e20-e73d48721800/ https://minutesof.com/q/a42225be-7133-4459-8e20-e73d48721800/ “That $50,000,000,000 of COGS needs to burn on infra, which cost roughly with if a five if you're talking about five year depreciation, call it $250,000,000,000,” — The MAD Podcast with Matt Turck Thu, 05 Feb 2026 13:30:16 +0000 capex Patel states OpenAI will deploy 16-18 gigawatts by end of 2028 requiring $300 billion spend. https://minutesof.com/q/0514621a-0bad-4693-aafd-f44de9e45c7b/ https://minutesof.com/q/0514621a-0bad-4693-aafd-f44de9e45c7b/ “OpenAI is gonna have 18 gigawatts or 16 gigawatts by the end of twenty eight, and they're gonna be able to pay for it. And that's like, well, that's $300,000,000,000 of spend.” — TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 capex Patel forecasts hyperscaler CapEx at $455-500 billion for next year versus Wall Street consensus of $360 billi https://minutesof.com/q/b3245cbb-ccb0-4af1-8480-c9d4f7170c7d/ https://minutesof.com/q/b3245cbb-ccb0-4af1-8480-c9d4f7170c7d/ “The consensus for the banks is $360,000,000,000 of spend next year across all of them. And my number is closer to, like it's, like, $45,500.” — a16z Mon, 22 Sep 2025 13:01:51 +0000 capex Patel forecasts NVIDIA revenue exceeding $300 billion next year as infrastructure spending reaches nation-stat https://minutesof.com/q/8f99a7b9-a139-456b-b5be-913d28f9bdd8/ https://minutesof.com/q/8f99a7b9-a139-456b-b5be-913d28f9bdd8/ “NVIDIA's revenue this year is gonna be, like, over $200,000,000,000, and next year expects over 300,000,000,000 plus Google's gonna spend, like, $50,000,000,000 on TPU data centers.” — a16z Mon, 18 Aug 2025 18:26:43 +0000 capex Patel states $10 billion data centers target automated software engineering, not chat models. https://minutesof.com/q/119203f3-2761-4bf3-a619-aaad40c2f71a/ https://minutesof.com/q/119203f3-2761-4bf3-a619-aaad40c2f71a/ “So no one is trying to make with these $10,000,000,000 data centers, they're not trying to make chat models. Right?” — Alex Kantrowitz Wed, 23 Apr 2025 16:30:06 +0000 capex