The Minutes of Dylan Patel on forecast https://minutesof.com/dylan-patel/on/forecast/ Everything Dylan Patel has said on forecast: 5 verbatim quotes between June 2025 and August 2026, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording it… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:22:18 +0000 Patel forecasts AI CapEx will exceed $2 trillion by 2028, up from just over $1 trillion in 2025. https://minutesof.com/q/87380cb5-ef13-4f9a-b24b-646ce43d9ba9/ https://minutesof.com/q/87380cb5-ef13-4f9a-b24b-646ce43d9ba9/ “As we go forward into the future, the the numbers for computer ballooning, right, we're at, you know, you know, a little bit over a trillion dollars of CapEx this year.” — Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 forecast Patel says OpenAI and Anthropic represent 30% of new compute in 2025, rising to 40-50% in 2026. https://minutesof.com/q/70a3cb07-2a15-466e-a813-04504489cc62/ https://minutesof.com/q/70a3cb07-2a15-466e-a813-04504489cc62/ “When you when you look at the incremental compute added, that's about 30% of the compute added this year.” — Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 forecast Patel predicts OpenAI and Anthropic alone will deploy over 100 gigawatts of compute by 2030. https://minutesof.com/q/e9a8fba3-1f79-4310-9c95-0d513f20374b/ https://minutesof.com/q/e9a8fba3-1f79-4310-9c95-0d513f20374b/ “by 2030, just OpenAI and Anthropic will have over 100 gigawatts combined, and then you'll add Meta and Google and so on and so forth.” — Sequoia Capital Tue, 30 Jun 2026 12:00:25 +0000 forecast Patel predicts semiconductor shortages will return as primary constraint in 2027 affecting both TSMC and memor https://minutesof.com/q/ab231a57-e3dc-4e62-afac-6f29f3648eeb/ https://minutesof.com/q/ab231a57-e3dc-4e62-afac-6f29f3648eeb/ “But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC. It's also memory both.” — TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 forecast Patel forecasts that 70% of robots deployed in China in 2025 will be domestically manufactured Chinese robots. https://minutesof.com/q/1269ac38-2f98-4cc6-8b06-3dfdfcf4efda/ https://minutesof.com/q/1269ac38-2f98-4cc6-8b06-3dfdfcf4efda/ “'24, it's, it's rapidly growing Chinese share. And '25 is it looks clear, like, the the market shares is, you know, gonna be 60 is gonna be, like, 70% Chinese robots for China's domestic usage.” — Going Direct Sun, 22 Jun 2025 21:30:00 +0000 forecast