https://minutesof.com/dylan-patel/on/forecasts/ Everything Dylan Patel has said on forecasts: 11 verbatim quotes between August 2025 and August 2026, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording it… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:22:17 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/fd6d2eb3-da00-477c-8bfe-4ac144bc044d/ https://minutesof.com/q/fd6d2eb3-da00-477c-8bfe-4ac144bc044d/ “As we go out into '28, it's gonna be more than $2,000,000,000,000. The labs are also taking an increasing percentage of this.” — Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/fe481a98-ee52-4271-a902-5fcb25373eaa/ https://minutesof.com/q/fe481a98-ee52-4271-a902-5fcb25373eaa/ “The sentiment is already more than half Americans have a negative view of AI. As we fast forward to the end of this year, as Anthropix revenue goes from 19,000,000,000 to maybe 60, and OpenAI is similar, if not higher, the amount of jobs that get supplemented, the amount of change that happens in society,” — Matthew Berman Mon, 09 Mar 2026 17:07:47 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/1a954518-d905-4ab6-b6df-6800d4e18a40/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a954518-d905-4ab6-b6df-6800d4e18a40/ “There's no reason why Google will have any profit in '27 at all, right, in terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make on on AI infrastructure.” — Latent Space Thu, 26 Feb 2026 21:15:18 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/e5e3d778-0070-4de8-8f94-4c29939e6d4c/ https://minutesof.com/q/e5e3d778-0070-4de8-8f94-4c29939e6d4c/ “by the end of the year do how many people even believe by the end of the year AI startup revenue is over a $100,000,000,000?” — TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/4adf2698-ffda-4eb7-ae43-2e46f83b43fd/ https://minutesof.com/q/4adf2698-ffda-4eb7-ae43-2e46f83b43fd/ “I think that's an insane statement for a lot of people, but that's what it's gonna be. Yeah. Right? And who believes that number? Right? It's like Yeah. Very few people.” — TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/170adcfe-f306-42e0-8573-f93458964072/ https://minutesof.com/q/170adcfe-f306-42e0-8573-f93458964072/ “when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have $300,000,000,000 of revenue by the end of the decade. And it's like, actually, I think that number's too low.” — TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/ea3cf02f-7d0e-4bca-b768-9af08fb48270/ https://minutesof.com/q/ea3cf02f-7d0e-4bca-b768-9af08fb48270/ “Oracle is going from like one fifth your size to bigger than you by end of twenty twenty seven.” — Dwarkesh Patel Wed, 12 Nov 2025 17:02:10 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/7d9d0bab-255a-445a-a1d8-0e08420af839/ https://minutesof.com/q/7d9d0bab-255a-445a-a1d8-0e08420af839/ “And then the other one is, given our estimates on what your capacity is in 2028, is three and a half gigawatts lower? Sure, you could have dedicated that to OpenAI training and inference capacity.” — Dwarkesh Patel Wed, 12 Nov 2025 17:02:10 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/55c2488f-537a-40ff-a8e2-4e757421a05c/ https://minutesof.com/q/55c2488f-537a-40ff-a8e2-4e757421a05c/ “So, these labs are now projecting revenues of 100,000,000,000 in 2728, and they're projecting revenue keeps growing at this rate of like 3x, 2x” — Dwarkesh Patel Wed, 12 Nov 2025 17:02:10 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/b3245cbb-ccb0-4af1-8480-c9d4f7170c7d/ https://minutesof.com/q/b3245cbb-ccb0-4af1-8480-c9d4f7170c7d/ “The consensus for the banks is $360,000,000,000 of spend next year across all of them. And my number is closer to, like it's, like, $45,500.” — a16z Mon, 22 Sep 2025 13:01:51 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/8f99a7b9-a139-456b-b5be-913d28f9bdd8/ https://minutesof.com/q/8f99a7b9-a139-456b-b5be-913d28f9bdd8/ “NVIDIA's revenue this year is gonna be, like, over $200,000,000,000, and next year expects over 300,000,000,000 plus Google's gonna spend, like, $50,000,000,000 on TPU data centers.” — a16z Mon, 18 Aug 2025 18:26:43 +0000 forecasts