The Minutes of Dylan Patel on supply chain https://minutesof.com/dylan-patel/on/supply-chain/ Everything Dylan Patel has said on supply chain: 15 verbatim quotes between August 2023 and August 2026, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:22:16 +0000 Patel reveals Google runs three separate TPU design programs with Broadcom, MediaTek, and undisclosed partner. https://minutesof.com/q/1146df8f-fda2-440e-b3ca-58362b2c1909/ https://minutesof.com/q/1146df8f-fda2-440e-b3ca-58362b2c1909/ “They're making a TPU with Broadcom, that's a different architecture than a TPU with MediaTek, that's a different TPU than the architecture that is, I won't disclose, by research.” — Sequoia Capital Tue, 30 Jun 2026 12:00:25 +0000 supply chain Patel estimates five to eight years of global tool manufacturing would be needed to replace Taiwan's chip capa https://minutesof.com/q/a8c57373-a3fe-4131-afd1-832e6b005059/ https://minutesof.com/q/a8c57373-a3fe-4131-afd1-832e6b005059/ “It would take five to eight years of all of the world's tool manufacturing capability Yeah. To even replace the capacity in Taiwan.” — Swole as a Service Wed, 13 May 2026 20:00:36 +0000 supply chain Patel says AI chips consuming all TSMC 3nm and 2nm capacity is forcing companies to alternative fabs. https://minutesof.com/q/43612d0e-1c2c-44ce-bd43-30f7192175e9/ https://minutesof.com/q/43612d0e-1c2c-44ce-bd43-30f7192175e9/ “More importantly is that AI is buying all the capacity on three nanometer and two nanometer in a couple years that, people are having to turn to other directions.” — Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 supply chain Patel explains NVIDIA acquired Grok partly because it manufactures on Samsung due to no TSMC 3nm capacity avai https://minutesof.com/q/d99d542e-883c-4529-a74c-51266d3590ff/ https://minutesof.com/q/d99d542e-883c-4529-a74c-51266d3590ff/ “Because there's no three nanometer capacity for them at TSMC, they need to chip somewhere else, and if you just if AI is as crazy as like we believe it is, and demand is as crazy as we believe it is, it's gonna be even crazier next year,” — Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 supply chain Patel explains AI chips are crowding onto three nanometer nodes, displacing mobile chip production. https://minutesof.com/q/ba53114b-1d6a-4193-9d8e-5071f283a0c3/ https://minutesof.com/q/ba53114b-1d6a-4193-9d8e-5071f283a0c3/ “Right? Because all the AI chips are on three nanometer and it takes time, Small mobile chips are easier to make than big AI chips, so all the AI chips are moving to three nanometer now, right? MI three fifty from” — Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 supply chain Patel lists AMD MI350, Amazon Trainium 3, and Google TPU v7 as AI chips now on 3nm process node. https://minutesof.com/q/0c038d22-7e17-4f58-8803-7254233cb26a/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c038d22-7e17-4f58-8803-7254233cb26a/ “MI three fifty from late last year from AMD or Tranium three and TPU v seven from late last year, or slash early this year from Amazon and Google” — Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 supply chain Patel predicts semiconductor shortages will return as the primary constraint in 2027 after power constraints e https://minutesof.com/q/542f4c33-ef8f-4e1c-9fe2-7a3da921cad2/ https://minutesof.com/q/542f4c33-ef8f-4e1c-9fe2-7a3da921cad2/ “But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC.” — TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 supply chain Patel predicts semiconductor shortages will return as primary constraint in 2027 affecting both TSMC and memor https://minutesof.com/q/ab231a57-e3dc-4e62-afac-6f29f3648eeb/ https://minutesof.com/q/ab231a57-e3dc-4e62-afac-6f29f3648eeb/ “But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC. It's also memory both.” — TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 supply chain Patel says memory makers have not built new fabs since 2022 due to cyclical nature. https://minutesof.com/q/8b546cbf-7428-4740-a672-99ccb7374ee7/ https://minutesof.com/q/8b546cbf-7428-4740-a672-99ccb7374ee7/ “The memory makers, in fact, have just not expanded capacity. Basically, new they've not built new fabs since 2022. Yeah. Because their their cycle their cycle is so undulating.” — TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 supply chain Patel argues TSMC's $100 billion US investment still relies on Taiwan R&D, not securing supply chain. https://minutesof.com/q/0db47aa8-b79a-47e8-9231-c3d0fed5f45e/ https://minutesof.com/q/0db47aa8-b79a-47e8-9231-c3d0fed5f45e/ “Even if they do fully do the full $100,000,000,000 they commit to, completely still relying on R and D in Taiwan.” — Special Competitive Studies Project Thu, 13 Mar 2025 16:42:15 +0000 supply chain Patel argues TSMC's $100 billion US investment won't secure R&D supply chain or new node development. https://minutesof.com/q/6efba2e7-6161-4f23-8644-c2e007650885/ https://minutesof.com/q/6efba2e7-6161-4f23-8644-c2e007650885/ “The R and D fab they announced is not going to secure R and D supply chain, right? It's not going to secure new node development, right?” — Special Competitive Studies Project Thu, 13 Mar 2025 16:42:15 +0000 supply chain Patel claims Google is massively ramping TPU production, a closely guarded secret most DeepMind employees don' https://minutesof.com/q/3758822d-6d28-4549-9783-84d049a8f9b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/3758822d-6d28-4549-9783-84d049a8f9b1/ “Google's actually ramping up TPU production massively. And I think people in AI would be like, Well, duh. But like, okay, who has the capability of figuring out the number?” — Latent Space Tue, 05 Dec 2023 18:16:28 +0000 supply chain Patel says Google's TPU production numbers are closely guarded secrets that even most Google DeepMind employee https://minutesof.com/q/29476b04-d67a-4d3f-8be3-bd44f3c5dbc1/ https://minutesof.com/q/29476b04-d67a-4d3f-8be3-bd44f3c5dbc1/ “Right? That's like a very closely guarded secret, most people that work at Google DeepMind don't even know number.” — Latent Space Tue, 05 Dec 2023 18:16:28 +0000 supply chain