https://minutesof.com/gavin-baker/ Gavin Baker: 226 verbatim quotes from 15 appearances on inference, ai capex and nvidia. Latest August 2026. Every quote timestamped and linked to its… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:21:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/0ab17321-1fa0-4e03-973d-6b09477fe693/ https://minutesof.com/q/0ab17321-1fa0-4e03-973d-6b09477fe693/ “50% price cut driving 14x more volume is kinda wild. https://t.co/WJJ4ET0Gh1” — X Sat, 29 Aug 2026 17:53:44 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/14239ad5-f86b-4f2a-bd29-ade7d1fb09a6/ https://minutesof.com/q/14239ad5-f86b-4f2a-bd29-ade7d1fb09a6/ “Going to see more and more of these: https://t.co/zcdyY3KBtD” — X Sat, 29 Aug 2026 15:39:48 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/c61d7914-6ccd-414e-a014-d20425f1ebd0/ https://minutesof.com/q/c61d7914-6ccd-414e-a014-d20425f1ebd0/ “@dnapway Directionally accurate imo. I think we are going to see American open-weight models approach the frontier one way or another.” — X Sat, 29 Aug 2026 13:47:09 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/2dc9da48-18d0-48ed-9973-9ca9945bab0d/ https://minutesof.com/q/2dc9da48-18d0-48ed-9973-9ca9945bab0d/ “you have the contracted base of installed compute trading at a massive discount to the current spot market, and as those contracts roll off and compute gets repriced higher, spot could decline and compute will still get repriced higher,” — Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/95fedc70-6da2-46ad-b618-f4d20370df74/ https://minutesof.com/q/95fedc70-6da2-46ad-b618-f4d20370df74/ “And they had rented a cluster of several thousand black wells, And we'll just call it, you know, somewhere in the mid $2 per GPU hour.” — Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/73641bf3-de15-41da-9158-47174de4c752/ https://minutesof.com/q/73641bf3-de15-41da-9158-47174de4c752/ “They're renting the exact same cluster, exact same size cluster, essentially identical in every way, b two hundreds, no no differences.” — Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/6ce1d298-3ee9-4421-94f2-57e60a6dfe4a/ https://minutesof.com/q/6ce1d298-3ee9-4421-94f2-57e60a6dfe4a/ “And they're hoping seven months later to pay just under $4. Like, you know, just you hear this today. And that's, like, that's pretty crazy” — Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/fc934197-4e61-4c4d-86b9-a6633f79d41e/ https://minutesof.com/q/fc934197-4e61-4c4d-86b9-a6633f79d41e/ “a company getting smarter about which model to use for which task, that, you know, that may lead to a a stabilization in their spend or even a decline, but it actually has nothing to do with the amount of, you know, GPU compute hours they are effectively consuming” — Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/97cbfdba-ab42-4e33-a2d7-dfef4623b92f/ https://minutesof.com/q/97cbfdba-ab42-4e33-a2d7-dfef4623b92f/ “There's 25,000,000,000,000 in knowledge work. And so let's, you know, let's say that that's, you know, let's take your 20% number. That's 5,000,000,000,000.” — Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/006f2e01-178b-414e-aede-d03efbfa0286/ https://minutesof.com/q/006f2e01-178b-414e-aede-d03efbfa0286/ “I think one of them gave an example of I forget if it was a plumber or an HVAC contractor, but, like, you know, everybody who's a blue collar worker is doing great because of AI.” — Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/0235e5c1-2209-4a3c-b1c5-ed6271534d2c/ https://minutesof.com/q/0235e5c1-2209-4a3c-b1c5-ed6271534d2c/ “I just think given that this is, the axis around which kind of everything is revolving, man, like, might blow up your entire business and your franchise by breaking an LTA.” — Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/b18d31ec-64d8-4147-923e-7a957eb56092/ https://minutesof.com/q/b18d31ec-64d8-4147-923e-7a957eb56092/ “I would be going to the buyers of GPUs, Traniums, and whoever and say, I'll participate in the NVIDIA credit wrapper. Now their business is just inherently less stable and predictable,” — Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/5a0b99f9-6108-445e-b01a-a58dfb695aae/ https://minutesof.com/q/5a0b99f9-6108-445e-b01a-a58dfb695aae/ “they put a vast amount of compute into the market overnight, and it wasn't even really a blip. It was like the market just utterly absorbed it.” — Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/9cd6fe5f-754d-4f9a-b683-99261c2225be/ https://minutesof.com/q/9cd6fe5f-754d-4f9a-b683-99261c2225be/ “They think that SpaceX is gonna try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but, I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat.” — Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/d7be6f16-b01e-405f-bf98-4894a50c98fd/ https://minutesof.com/q/d7be6f16-b01e-405f-bf98-4894a50c98fd/ “Loads of AI names are down 60% from their highs. We'll call it 40% to 60% in a month in a straight line.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/0b20c2f9-3c26-4495-8ebb-ac7e506821ad/ https://minutesof.com/q/0b20c2f9-3c26-4495-8ebb-ac7e506821ad/ “I don't think anyone in '24 or '25 thought that the prices of old GPUs would be going vertical. Everybody thought, hey. We're gonna be smart. We're gonna sign these long term contracts.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/c85f4400-5d03-4327-a817-cfa56c88e0a0/ https://minutesof.com/q/c85f4400-5d03-4327-a817-cfa56c88e0a0/ “And so, essentially, you have the contracted base of installed compute trading at a massive discount to the current spot market.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/978729d0-58b1-4960-8a4f-e5ef94383ed3/ https://minutesof.com/q/978729d0-58b1-4960-8a4f-e5ef94383ed3/ “Operating cash flow from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon has reported accelerated from '28 to '32. There are some actually pretty big unusual items now like these hyperscalers.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/cb3e3303-15a7-44f3-b0ac-646dac4d09d8/ https://minutesof.com/q/cb3e3303-15a7-44f3-b0ac-646dac4d09d8/ “But there is an unusual amount of onetimers this quarter. And if you adjust for that, we went from 28 to 35. That's that's a material acceleration at this scale.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/1c235f99-d1a4-4714-a40b-108f05e004ea/ https://minutesof.com/q/1c235f99-d1a4-4714-a40b-108f05e004ea/ “What it was is they saw SpaceX have a big installed base of compute and sell some big trading optimized clusters into the market at a truly massive premium to these contracted rates.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/3974bcc3-0708-427a-bf03-ecbe054064b3/ https://minutesof.com/q/3974bcc3-0708-427a-bf03-ecbe054064b3/ “What the Silicon Data token index captures is mix, and they don't see all the tokens.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/b66f155d-c49c-4b33-86f4-72831629b0a8/ https://minutesof.com/q/b66f155d-c49c-4b33-86f4-72831629b0a8/ “I think one reason to the podcast two months ago, I got comfortable with that risk was just that you were seeing such incredible things out of anthropic.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/2f00fe00-eb15-4fb6-83b8-ad9eee2d466d/ https://minutesof.com/q/2f00fe00-eb15-4fb6-83b8-ad9eee2d466d/ “And they had rented a cluster of several thousand black wells, and we'll just call it somewhere in the mid $2 per GPU hour.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/443a6457-4940-4dff-9022-a9659a14fe37/ https://minutesof.com/q/443a6457-4940-4dff-9022-a9659a14fe37/ “They went on a podcast, and they essentially said, we are planning to pay 100% more for Blackwell's when our contract expires. And that just means that essentially all the hyperscalers are under earning.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/064c931f-9092-4e67-90c0-a4902bd8eba2/ https://minutesof.com/q/064c931f-9092-4e67-90c0-a4902bd8eba2/ “NVIDIA is actually, as we record this, at its lowest forward PE of the last ten years.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/713544d7-5fd8-47e8-a9b2-9bd80b763737/ https://minutesof.com/q/713544d7-5fd8-47e8-a9b2-9bd80b763737/ “Let's just think about the game theory of breaking an LTA. So there's four companies that matter at scale. There's Amazon with their tradiums.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/9b733324-6a8d-4297-8289-670e5c101e59/ https://minutesof.com/q/9b733324-6a8d-4297-8289-670e5c101e59/ “So there's four companies that matter at scale. There's Amazon with their tradiums. There's Google with their TPUs. There's AMD, and then there's NVIDIA who's, like, much bigger than everybody else combined.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/498c1547-6142-4dfd-9717-055d939ec2fc/ https://minutesof.com/q/498c1547-6142-4dfd-9717-055d939ec2fc/ “It's the single most important thing you could do to increase token output per unit of compute, and then that obviously, definitionally, actually lowers costs,” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/1c68adab-c7db-487c-a37a-3d17c27ea19c/ https://minutesof.com/q/1c68adab-c7db-487c-a37a-3d17c27ea19c/ “Well, if they're breaking their LTAs, it probably means, you know, your oversupply, prices are coming down, and then, you know, capacity naturally contracts. Well, what do you think is gonna happen to Google's allocations?” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/04a10ac9-3dc4-4ef0-b30d-013a32bc208d/ https://minutesof.com/q/04a10ac9-3dc4-4ef0-b30d-013a32bc208d/ “Which is? I would be going to the buyers of GPUs, tradiums, and whoever and say, I'll participate in the NVIDIA credit wrapper.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/f8a1ce63-0c20-4776-b362-c6e16f7a9165/ https://minutesof.com/q/f8a1ce63-0c20-4776-b362-c6e16f7a9165/ “I'm just making this up. But, like, do something. Like, you can because you have money now and credit markets are revolting.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/8399cd47-2fb0-4af4-8f75-0f2a1430655b/ https://minutesof.com/q/8399cd47-2fb0-4af4-8f75-0f2a1430655b/ “Borgesch, he's a very smart guy. He's very plugged in. Then he pointed out that margins on compute are going up.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/273fa3f1-13d3-4f0d-9774-ac10ff1c4250/ https://minutesof.com/q/273fa3f1-13d3-4f0d-9774-ac10ff1c4250/ “The amount of compute is going up and inference margins going up. And if you multiply those three, that's how you're getting this crazy acceleration into some of the labs plus open source,” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/2cbe2ec5-4ba8-4401-9e50-95a7fe2050a5/ https://minutesof.com/q/2cbe2ec5-4ba8-4401-9e50-95a7fe2050a5/ “A Substack writer will fund the AI. They think that SpaceX is gonna try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next eighteen months.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/898427d9-5d8c-40af-9feb-9256d6c3c56e/ https://minutesof.com/q/898427d9-5d8c-40af-9feb-9256d6c3c56e/ “And they're monetizing at something like 50,000,000,000 a gig and consensus estimates for next year are 73,000,000,000. So forget Starlink v three, forget Starlink direct to sell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/3598c618-46c5-4911-bda9-726bf23a067e/ https://minutesof.com/q/3598c618-46c5-4911-bda9-726bf23a067e/ “If they bring on anywhere near that, the consensus estimate is 73,000,000,000. That's eight gigs at 50,000,000,000 a gig. And, obviously, that would not all be lit up at the beginning of twenty seven.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/fb449051-43d8-4f0a-bb90-7ba94ead69af/ https://minutesof.com/q/fb449051-43d8-4f0a-bb90-7ba94ead69af/ “I published a note, I think in, February 2000 after six weeks of looking at these stocks.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/03ba6639-ea2d-4d76-bef9-4e3489cef21a/ https://minutesof.com/q/03ba6639-ea2d-4d76-bef9-4e3489cef21a/ “Hock's model has always been to find a profit pool that has been drained and there's no competition left, enter that and jack prices up.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/bbe45b69-8c98-40d1-8402-751be14bf780/ https://minutesof.com/q/bbe45b69-8c98-40d1-8402-751be14bf780/ “I was a pretty young man. It was obvious to me he was exceptional, like for sure one of the most exceptional people I'd ever met.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/ced90466-9e52-4b95-8fed-6174436d1d1c/ https://minutesof.com/q/ced90466-9e52-4b95-8fed-6174436d1d1c/ “But like now, for sure, Jensen is, you know, one of the two or three most exceptional people I've ever met in my life.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/736a31d5-7520-41fc-a660-bf0bf6e99fde/ https://minutesof.com/q/736a31d5-7520-41fc-a660-bf0bf6e99fde/ “And a very important distinction we will come to is whether or not that build out is funded out of debt or cash flows. It's a critical distinction for AI.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/4d1d5bb9-4071-40de-9a76-74d264e2d9a0/ https://minutesof.com/q/4d1d5bb9-4071-40de-9a76-74d264e2d9a0/ “In the bubble, you went down 80 or 85. Dramatically different. And so the scars are so deep from that bubble that just that puts a lid on tech valuations.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/0013527c-0b2d-442c-81ee-05978ee5d2a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/0013527c-0b2d-442c-81ee-05978ee5d2a3/ “But even if we solve the shortage of Watts with orbital data centers, the TSM is still a bottleneck. And semi's and semiconductor manufacturing, you have a big advantage if you were ahead.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/beb61269-79c8-4d1c-ae86-3383a0f6c446/ https://minutesof.com/q/beb61269-79c8-4d1c-ae86-3383a0f6c446/ “And semi's and semiconductor manufacturing, you have a big advantage if you were ahead. Everybody it's like baking. Everybody uses the same ingredients or whatever.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/253cd136-c2ae-463c-993b-e953ec41d7ac/ https://minutesof.com/q/253cd136-c2ae-463c-993b-e953ec41d7ac/ “But they're just not going to and the TSM executives are the people who met with Sam Altman, and they dismissed him as a podcast pro.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/cf0664cd-4be9-48d0-b17c-787e1d380449/ https://minutesof.com/q/cf0664cd-4be9-48d0-b17c-787e1d380449/ “And the nature of AI just as AI eats the world, silicon is going to eat the world because it's so much more computationally intensive than deterministic software written by humans.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/f9d8be14-a3e0-4d46-93f0-a74b86319592/ https://minutesof.com/q/f9d8be14-a3e0-4d46-93f0-a74b86319592/ “AI, even if you put a harness on it, even if you do the chain of thought, even if you have multiple agents, it's probabilistic that it is recomputing the answer each time.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/cc4c0184-429c-4948-9bb2-1945c987164c/ https://minutesof.com/q/cc4c0184-429c-4948-9bb2-1945c987164c/ “There's a chapter about him at the Walter Isaacson book. He was on the field having an impact on the outcome, along with the incredibly talented people at Tesla and Elon.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/92c8f11c-3e80-4ba8-9041-57c9ce86cb86/ https://minutesof.com/q/92c8f11c-3e80-4ba8-9041-57c9ce86cb86/ “Monopoly Go is a game where we have the revenue and the hours played and it is to render it using list prices for something like VEO3 is more than two orders of magnitude greater than its revenue. So what is the role for human creativity, man? I don't know.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/7c7a92c5-fdfe-4963-b642-7f3b54fc91e0/ https://minutesof.com/q/7c7a92c5-fdfe-4963-b642-7f3b54fc91e0/ “So what is the role for human creativity, man? I don't know. I don't know. Like what I hope, one of the reasons Neuralink is such an exciting company” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/bf8611b6-4632-47e7-bd6a-fbcdd7c2c677/ https://minutesof.com/q/bf8611b6-4632-47e7-bd6a-fbcdd7c2c677/ “Ultimately, as an investor, you either have to panic early or double down late. And essentially no one does both. And know thyself.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/43b4fec0-b06d-466e-ba90-0803c0cd9853/ https://minutesof.com/q/43b4fec0-b06d-466e-ba90-0803c0cd9853/ “And I always give the same advice, be kind and be scrappy. A lot of people who are kind are not scrappy and a lot of people are scrappy are not kind.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/6779b466-88ec-46ee-852b-22cae788c685/ https://minutesof.com/q/6779b466-88ec-46ee-852b-22cae788c685/ “I was on a hot Friday afternoon and everybody at the endowment had left. They got completely blown off and then it started pouring rain.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/9c12cc3b-5c54-4a50-9c06-e4d2d16091b9/ https://minutesof.com/q/9c12cc3b-5c54-4a50-9c06-e4d2d16091b9/ “Anthropic, they added $11,000,000,000 of AR. And what is astonishing to me about this is that the SaaS and cloud revolution it created, we'll call it between 5 and $10,000,000,000,000 of value.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/bc5a5566-b96e-4ba5-8fbb-169a20af1672/ https://minutesof.com/q/bc5a5566-b96e-4ba5-8fbb-169a20af1672/ “And these three companies employ thousands of people, tens of thousands collectively. They've all spent ten years building their businesses and Anthropic added their combined businesses in one month.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/82588e90-fe83-47b1-a16e-aafdc15f56df/ https://minutesof.com/q/82588e90-fe83-47b1-a16e-aafdc15f56df/ “Anthropic added their combined businesses in one month. Nothing like that has ever happened in the history of capitalism.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/52541184-dd18-482e-b266-0236fe4216b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/52541184-dd18-482e-b266-0236fe4216b1/ “And I think maybe a true statement is that Infantropic could just wave a magic wand and get all the compute they wanted. They'd probably be doing well north of $100,000,000,000 today, maybe 150.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/2fcc4de9-3c7e-4579-9729-0bca59cb7e78/ https://minutesof.com/q/2fcc4de9-3c7e-4579-9729-0bca59cb7e78/ “So I think they would be doing materially more a hundred, one hundred and fifty, maybe 200,000,000,000. So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/11b9d32f-6e26-4a8c-b4ca-233ed1e5e9c1/ https://minutesof.com/q/11b9d32f-6e26-4a8c-b4ca-233ed1e5e9c1/ “I think they would be doing materially more a hundred, one hundred and fifty, maybe 200,000,000,000. So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/0a0e203d-8568-41d2-93f0-c438e34d8d7d/ https://minutesof.com/q/0a0e203d-8568-41d2-93f0-c438e34d8d7d/ “So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained. I'm gonna make up a new number. URR, unconstrained revenue.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/ec5a9c7e-99d9-4536-8535-fbba88740844/ https://minutesof.com/q/ec5a9c7e-99d9-4536-8535-fbba88740844/ “I think Anthropic probably starts generating cash this year if they are not already generating cash, which I think is probably the case.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/c820070b-1b0a-4ec0-8beb-cdc237a3f357/ https://minutesof.com/q/c820070b-1b0a-4ec0-8beb-cdc237a3f357/ “It's eight feet high. It's four feet deep, three feet wide. It's racks in space and SpaceX has showed you an illustration and it's a rack.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/0cb5c25b-cad5-4779-a19e-387ba516f38c/ https://minutesof.com/q/0cb5c25b-cad5-4779-a19e-387ba516f38c/ “It has these solar wings that are probably 500 feet long on each side. You keep it in a sun synchronous orbit.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/c36d1b7b-a557-4ecb-b855-6610596f9fe3/ https://minutesof.com/q/c36d1b7b-a557-4ecb-b855-6610596f9fe3/ “And I just think the same is true of compute. It's why I'm probably less worried about like an edge AI bear case than I was.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/c36e87b2-cd1e-4c19-b84d-b929d673346d/ https://minutesof.com/q/c36e87b2-cd1e-4c19-b84d-b929d673346d/ “It's why I'm probably less worried about like an edge AI bear case than I was. We're going to consume as much compute as we can.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/03feb2b9-154d-43f6-9510-d695fcd49d03/ https://minutesof.com/q/03feb2b9-154d-43f6-9510-d695fcd49d03/ “I do think it's wild that Jensen has never had a contract with Taiwan Semi. They do business on what seems fair in handshakes.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/9fba209e-eb21-4dc0-af16-f50081fc3610/ https://minutesof.com/q/9fba209e-eb21-4dc0-af16-f50081fc3610/ “If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, I think Nvidia could sell $2,000,000,000,000 of GPUs in '26 or '27, maybe 2,500,000,000,000, maybe 3,000,000,000,000.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/1def0bff-3374-41a1-8cc6-b9c33c78c1e2/ https://minutesof.com/q/1def0bff-3374-41a1-8cc6-b9c33c78c1e2/ “If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, I think Nvidia could sell $2,000,000,000,000 of GPUs in '26 or '27, maybe 2,500,000,000,000, maybe 3,000,000,000,000. But there is a limit where consumers would consume so much.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/fb324547-3123-4b57-aa99-0d2aa4293cda/ https://minutesof.com/q/fb324547-3123-4b57-aa99-0d2aa4293cda/ “So Taiwan Semi, if we don't get a bubble, we need to throw a party for them because they will have single handedly prevented a bubble.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/3849c4ea-56aa-49aa-a1e8-f08ea309f02e/ https://minutesof.com/q/3849c4ea-56aa-49aa-a1e8-f08ea309f02e/ “The pace at which they expand capacity. If I were to watch one thing to understand where there's a bubble, it's Taiwan Semi's capacity decisions.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/7837e140-369d-4aa1-804e-0137ce5f0c35/ https://minutesof.com/q/7837e140-369d-4aa1-804e-0137ce5f0c35/ “It's a SpaceX, I believe Tesla's involved as well, joint venture to build the world's largest fab here in America. I think they're going to be successful.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/863ee934-a388-4321-9492-e36421b5b97d/ https://minutesof.com/q/863ee934-a388-4321-9492-e36421b5b97d/ “They wanted them to catch up. They don't like having a monopsony. The a teams were in Taiwan working. Intel made some mistakes and presto.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/6ff4dc31-9a0f-497c-bc1a-932bcf9436ba/ https://minutesof.com/q/6ff4dc31-9a0f-497c-bc1a-932bcf9436ba/ “And then we'll have Japan town, same thing. We're going to have Koreatown. We're going to have all these things exactly dialed to recruit the best engineers.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/7991d993-a149-4684-8692-12d7dc932f1e/ https://minutesof.com/q/7991d993-a149-4684-8692-12d7dc932f1e/ “And it turns out that harness engineering is not as important as the model, but it really matters. And these harnesses in these models are increasingly being co developed.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/7b49081d-b3f9-445d-aba4-d290d5374ebd/ https://minutesof.com/q/7b49081d-b3f9-445d-aba4-d290d5374ebd/ “To understand what Frontier AI is capable of today, even for a non coding use case, need to have Cloud Code or Codex five point Codex. And you need to be on an enterprise plan.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/42fa040e-9f02-4acf-911f-dfbc9a85a96b/ https://minutesof.com/q/42fa040e-9f02-4acf-911f-dfbc9a85a96b/ “To understand what Frontier AI is capable of today, even for a non coding use case, need to have Cloud Code or Codex five point Codex.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/4b52026f-d927-4a34-90b9-14245a9cc937/ https://minutesof.com/q/4b52026f-d927-4a34-90b9-14245a9cc937/ “AI is just shifting from all you can eat to pay by the drink. Then it turns out people really like to talk to their friends long distance.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/60e611b0-5da1-46dd-88cc-3277d267722f/ https://minutesof.com/q/60e611b0-5da1-46dd-88cc-3277d267722f/ “So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over $200,000,000,000 in ARR this year.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/e54157aa-cef1-4bd4-9d22-a8b4df8c0d13/ https://minutesof.com/q/e54157aa-cef1-4bd4-9d22-a8b4df8c0d13/ “I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over $200,000,000,000 in ARR this year.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/b32b5e45-ab6f-4748-bcad-62727d94ff2f/ https://minutesof.com/q/b32b5e45-ab6f-4748-bcad-62727d94ff2f/ “Continual learning is a model that dynamically adjusts its weights or adjusts in some way in real time.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/ca1f41f5-e05d-4029-a1db-504f8b4e433d/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca1f41f5-e05d-4029-a1db-504f8b4e433d/ “The disaggregation of inference means that I think these GPUs are going to have ten or fifteen year lives.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/d42a1b86-60fc-431a-8a6b-892fc8405b51/ https://minutesof.com/q/d42a1b86-60fc-431a-8a6b-892fc8405b51/ “The disaggregation of inference means that I think these GPUs are going to have ten or fifteen year lives. The AI skeptics are like, oh, these companies are all cooking their books.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/d97e5674-e5aa-447d-9755-f683cbf66ab1/ https://minutesof.com/q/d97e5674-e5aa-447d-9755-f683cbf66ab1/ “The useful life of GPU is only a year or two. The useful life of CPU is only four years because the rapid technological change.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/e48abb03-3ad3-444d-b363-f1842caaa0da/ https://minutesof.com/q/e48abb03-3ad3-444d-b363-f1842caaa0da/ “This is going to be really good for the whole private credit industry. It's going to help finance the AI build out.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/9a463885-24f2-43d3-9479-fb352cad111c/ https://minutesof.com/q/9a463885-24f2-43d3-9479-fb352cad111c/ “I've been hanging on to the memory stocks for dear life. And yeah, but that's that's a that that's been a lifelong journey” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/f4b9214f-e8ec-4253-adbe-1d9175dac3ff/ https://minutesof.com/q/f4b9214f-e8ec-4253-adbe-1d9175dac3ff/ “I would say based on every memory cycle we have had for the last twenty five years, this is the time to be selling memory 100%.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/3de08092-6158-4e51-8455-aa99d5b8c989/ https://minutesof.com/q/3de08092-6158-4e51-8455-aa99d5b8c989/ “And I would just say, I take the over on every number that they gave. Every single number. As what I think, you know, they're conservative guys.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/d4f2a0f4-56a2-49b1-b256-38a58d9467ac/ https://minutesof.com/q/d4f2a0f4-56a2-49b1-b256-38a58d9467ac/ “And I would just say, I take the over on every number that they gave. Every single number.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/eaa2c07f-36b4-496d-a802-6a49e559de0a/ https://minutesof.com/q/eaa2c07f-36b4-496d-a802-6a49e559de0a/ “This may be the first true capacity cycle. And I and and I and I do think that these fundamental shortages are good for us as investors.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/fed24d72-5469-4f6d-8afa-f09422b9b452/ https://minutesof.com/q/fed24d72-5469-4f6d-8afa-f09422b9b452/ “We're gonna address the watt shortages with orbital compute for sure in the next five to seven years. But the wafer shortage, I think, is going to persist for a long time.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/3823ad4c-4e33-479c-8b0f-711768554c79/ https://minutesof.com/q/3823ad4c-4e33-479c-8b0f-711768554c79/ “And so they're just simply not expanding capacity as fast as Jensen wants. Jensen goes there every three months and, you know, maybe they expand, you know, 5%. He wants them to double or triple.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/5844eeb0-1c90-4b36-a1d3-14fdd317f440/ https://minutesof.com/q/5844eeb0-1c90-4b36-a1d3-14fdd317f440/ “And if they doubled or tripled capacity, like, NVIDIA could probably sell $11,520,000,000,000 worth of chips next year. I really believe that. But the other side of that might be very painful for everyone.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/17aeec53-9e20-4cc3-bb0b-f1d5fa03e8e1/ https://minutesof.com/q/17aeec53-9e20-4cc3-bb0b-f1d5fa03e8e1/ “And if they doubled or tripled capacity, like, NVIDIA could probably sell $11,520,000,000,000 worth of chips next year. I really believe that.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/eb16479a-ee2b-4d2c-9779-1e7eb5762367/ https://minutesof.com/q/eb16479a-ee2b-4d2c-9779-1e7eb5762367/ “We're just moving from these all you can eat plans to usage based plans with overage, where those usage tokens cost a lot more, and we're finding out that there's we're nowhere near the amount of, you know, people ceiling price for how much they'll spend.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/20c46b63-3663-4f9f-9324-17a82821dfcb/ https://minutesof.com/q/20c46b63-3663-4f9f-9324-17a82821dfcb/ “And we're in an insane shortage despite spending cumulatively trillions of dollars. What happens when 5% of the world's population is using these models the way the cutting edge 10 basis points are?” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/7c0eb714-2699-491f-b983-09b25778e0f7/ https://minutesof.com/q/7c0eb714-2699-491f-b983-09b25778e0f7/ “What happens when 5% of the world's population is using these models the way the cutting edge 10 basis points are? Like, it's just it's unimaginable. This is why orbital compute is a necessity.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/a91f962e-6711-454f-b1db-5c6d4437360d/ https://minutesof.com/q/a91f962e-6711-454f-b1db-5c6d4437360d/ “Tranium, by far. Tranium is going to be to 2026, especially in the second half of this year when Tranium three really ramps, as TPUs were to twenty twenty five.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/77488a06-75d9-432d-b0cd-0afa0e21f41f/ https://minutesof.com/q/77488a06-75d9-432d-b0cd-0afa0e21f41f/ “Tranium is going to be to 2026, especially in the second half of this year when Tranium three really ramps, as TPUs were to twenty twenty five.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/9f8eb50e-f98e-49c0-8051-f5a028e01a39/ https://minutesof.com/q/9f8eb50e-f98e-49c0-8051-f5a028e01a39/ “And so Trainium is for sure the most underestimated, not only because of those design choices, but because the all of these frontier models are what are called mixture of expert models.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/05badf52-27d8-4742-8532-91f442850ac7/ https://minutesof.com/q/05badf52-27d8-4742-8532-91f442850ac7/ “And the only two functioning switched scale up networks in the world today are the ones that power NVIDIA GPUs and Amazon's Trainiums.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/4bbf9d84-bae2-460e-a752-a60a13663534/ https://minutesof.com/q/4bbf9d84-bae2-460e-a752-a60a13663534/ “I could've Atreides could've invested over $50,000,000 in the round at 1,100,000,000, And I was conflicted out by Crusoe,” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/ddd710e5-6e26-4f0b-a091-06e17dcff42b/ https://minutesof.com/q/ddd710e5-6e26-4f0b-a091-06e17dcff42b/ “But I can't imagine a day when in the next seven years, when we never build another terrestrial data center. Mhmm.” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/37c6b2d5-a06c-4583-8cd8-bcefcb922043/ https://minutesof.com/q/37c6b2d5-a06c-4583-8cd8-bcefcb922043/ “And the years leading up to that are gonna be very painful for a lot of the companies and the power cooling spaces, you know, these industrial names,” — Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/51979602-4b9e-4e59-a51c-540b078fa3b8/ https://minutesof.com/q/51979602-4b9e-4e59-a51c-540b078fa3b8/ “They stated that unequivocally. And that's important because no one on planet earth knows how or why scaling laws for pre training work.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/8eb07bfe-01aa-40a9-857d-dcf1bcbe4688/ https://minutesof.com/q/8eb07bfe-01aa-40a9-857d-dcf1bcbe4688/ “And that's important because no one on planet earth knows how or why scaling laws for pre training work. It's actually not a law.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/f8797514-b5b6-4d0b-abae-4fb180052ee7/ https://minutesof.com/q/f8797514-b5b6-4d0b-abae-4fb180052ee7/ “The reason we've had all this progress, maybe we could show like the ARC AGI slide where you had zero to eight over four years, zero to 8% intelligence, and then you went from 8% to 95% in three months when the first reasoning model came out from OpenAI.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/b5e8baa6-e2a8-44f5-8f5c-2b0a33c4a335/ https://minutesof.com/q/b5e8baa6-e2a8-44f5-8f5c-2b0a33c4a335/ “And the reason for that is it was by far the most complex product transition we've ever gone through in technology. Going from hopper to Blackwell, first you go from air cooled to liquid cooled.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/f04afcff-68fc-4287-b5cd-9888a7f33126/ https://minutesof.com/q/f04afcff-68fc-4287-b5cd-9888a7f33126/ “Going from hopper to Blackwell, first you go from air cooled to liquid cooled. The rack goes from weighing round numbers, a thousand pounds to 3,000 pounds.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/781366db-4e57-4c07-85ff-eba003666bd6/ https://minutesof.com/q/781366db-4e57-4c07-85ff-eba003666bd6/ “The rack goes from weighing round numbers, a thousand pounds to 3,000 pounds. Goes from round numbers, 30 kilowatts, which is 30 American homes to 130 kilowatts, which is 130 American homes.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/b0602eef-8453-42a9-b715-c5cf316b435f/ https://minutesof.com/q/b0602eef-8453-42a9-b715-c5cf316b435f/ “Goes from round numbers, 30 kilowatts, which is 30 American homes to 130 kilowatts, which is 130 American homes.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/de1ebc6f-3f2b-4cbb-8fe4-1efe5134aead/ https://minutesof.com/q/de1ebc6f-3f2b-4cbb-8fe4-1efe5134aead/ “Had reasoning not come along, there would have been no AI progress from mid twenty twenty four through essentially Gemini three.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/c48e328c-4021-4238-a1af-b71e7630eaec/ https://minutesof.com/q/c48e328c-4021-4238-a1af-b71e7630eaec/ “Had reasoning not come along, there would have been no AI progress from mid twenty twenty four through essentially” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/1bf31cf6-f2eb-44b4-a151-5c78b11a71ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/1bf31cf6-f2eb-44b4-a151-5c78b11a71ae/ “Had reasoning not come along, there would have been no AI progress from mid twenty twenty four through essentially Gemini three. There would have been none. Everything would have stalled.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/2126dc4a-e2be-49ce-8c28-495ab2897322/ https://minutesof.com/q/2126dc4a-e2be-49ce-8c28-495ab2897322/ “Had reasoning not come along, there would have been no AI progress from mid twenty twenty four through essentially Gemini three. There would have been none.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/e679ccc2-32ff-45bb-a011-17fece7abd5e/ https://minutesof.com/q/e679ccc2-32ff-45bb-a011-17fece7abd5e/ “So I think Google for sure has this temporary advantage right now from a pre training perspective. I think it's also important that they've been the lowest cost producer of tokens.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/25b2d299-b64a-4ee1-a269-e4a8a062374a/ https://minutesof.com/q/25b2d299-b64a-4ee1-a269-e4a8a062374a/ “And this is really important because AI is the first time in my career as a tech investor that being the low cost producers ever matter.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/ca343e9e-3861-42a8-96b6-e02b5065cbf4/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca343e9e-3861-42a8-96b6-e02b5065cbf4/ “AI is the first time in my career as a tech investor that being the low cost producers ever matter. Apple is not worth trillions because they're a low cost producer of phones.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/4a6d6767-2e27-43f3-b3fb-c234a6bc6a18/ https://minutesof.com/q/4a6d6767-2e27-43f3-b3fb-c234a6bc6a18/ “One, we will see the first models trained on Blackwell in early twenty twenty six. I think the first Blackwell model will come from xAI.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/08ba00ed-4f3b-440e-aaff-4254135f5030/ https://minutesof.com/q/08ba00ed-4f3b-440e-aaff-4254135f5030/ “I think the first Blackwell model will come from xAI. And the reason for that is just according to Jensen, no one builds data centers faster than Elon.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/ad7101a5-4fa1-44cc-87eb-3fdf8077feb6/ https://minutesof.com/q/ad7101a5-4fa1-44cc-87eb-3fdf8077feb6/ “We know that scaling laws for pre training are intact, And this means the Blackwell models are going to be amazing.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/440b0421-1fbc-48cd-a05c-365e7fe737ee/ https://minutesof.com/q/440b0421-1fbc-48cd-a05c-365e7fe737ee/ “I think part of that is, so Google, let's say the TPU, so there's front end and back end of semiconductor design, and then there's dealing with Taiwan Semi.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/181634e4-7c28-4e3e-8027-37df4f418718/ https://minutesof.com/q/181634e4-7c28-4e3e-8027-37df4f418718/ “And the managing Taiwan Semi is like stamping out that house like Lennar or, you know, D. R. Horton. And for doing those two latter parts, Broadcom earns a 50 to 55% gross margin.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/cb409c3c-12d6-4df8-bf46-a81f03b41b63/ https://minutesof.com/q/cb409c3c-12d6-4df8-bf46-a81f03b41b63/ “I think the most important thing that's going to happen in the world, in this world, in the next three to four years is data centers in space.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/e9c6e2e8-9e50-4310-a64c-ff8165e35a68/ https://minutesof.com/q/e9c6e2e8-9e50-4310-a64c-ff8165e35a68/ “You can have the satellite always kind of catching light. The sun is 30% more intense and this results in six times more irradiance” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/16da4440-37d1-4315-8fa2-3cd19228d2de/ https://minutesof.com/q/16da4440-37d1-4315-8fa2-3cd19228d2de/ “The sun is 30% more intense and this results in six times more irradiance in outer space than on planet earth. So you're getting a lot of solar energy.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/fabe1871-3b4b-4c46-9a61-3d0bbd658281/ https://minutesof.com/q/fabe1871-3b4b-4c46-9a61-3d0bbd658281/ “The sun is 30% more intense and this results in six times more irradiance in outer space than on planet earth.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/2fbd833e-43d2-4979-b060-3b7eee145f15/ https://minutesof.com/q/2fbd833e-43d2-4979-b060-3b7eee145f15/ “We haven't seen a true capacity cycle in semis arguably since the late nineties. And that's because Taiwan Semi has been so good at aggregating and smoothing supply.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/cd04bf33-77bd-450c-8ff0-789eaf28c649/ https://minutesof.com/q/cd04bf33-77bd-450c-8ff0-789eaf28c649/ “If the price of DRAM, if like a DRAM wafer is valued at like a five carat diamond.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/48ce082d-32d8-499e-930f-c182af61ba0d/ https://minutesof.com/q/48ce082d-32d8-499e-930f-c182af61ba0d/ “Well, I think that application SaaS companies are making the exact same mistake that brick and mortar retailers did with e commerce.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/a4e665dd-3663-4c29-8c75-622b18264f6c/ https://minutesof.com/q/a4e665dd-3663-4c29-8c75-622b18264f6c/ “I think that application SaaS companies are making the exact same mistake that brick and mortar retailers did with e commerce.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/f486a7c7-1b3b-4ce7-94c8-c5696df09044/ https://minutesof.com/q/f486a7c7-1b3b-4ce7-94c8-c5696df09044/ “The crazy thing is because of those efficiency gains, they're generating cash way earlier than SaaS companies did historically, but they're generating cash earlier, not because they have high gross margins, but because they have very few human employees.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/f7b5e441-c994-41ce-a69f-fef72d295258/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7b5e441-c994-41ce-a69f-fef72d295258/ “And it's just tragic to watch all of these companies. Like you want to have an agent, It's never going to succeed.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/b30df38d-a975-4d8d-9f97-4b9eeeed3b27/ https://minutesof.com/q/b30df38d-a975-4d8d-9f97-4b9eeeed3b27/ “inference compute is gonna be the the kind of derivative winner of that. We're gonna run out of GPUs, accelerators, compute in 2025 the same way we did in '23.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 04 Jan 2025 00:23:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/1efa7699-4dec-4870-90e7-a4670b8ad1a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/1efa7699-4dec-4870-90e7-a4670b8ad1a3/ “the ultimate AI winner will be the one with the lowest cost of infrastructure cost, the lowest cost of compute.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 04 Jan 2025 00:23:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/9295f47e-a8d2-4223-8f9b-91f62c50e373/ https://minutesof.com/q/9295f47e-a8d2-4223-8f9b-91f62c50e373/ “My most contrary belief, so I think that America over the next at some point over the next four years will print at least one year of greater than 5% GDP growth, real GDP growth.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 04 Jan 2025 00:23:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/5fe5835f-3bc6-4b11-b3f5-6a03e58df6ec/ https://minutesof.com/q/5fe5835f-3bc6-4b11-b3f5-6a03e58df6ec/ “I think you will see the Frontier Labs stop releasing their leading edge models to prevent knowledge distillation and their IP effectively being stolen.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 04 Jan 2025 00:23:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/43e8de1e-f992-4cb3-a105-207866b23450/ https://minutesof.com/q/43e8de1e-f992-4cb3-a105-207866b23450/ “High bandwidth memory is a bigger part of NVIDIA's cogs on GPUs than Taiwan Semi is. And today, there's two companies that can make it, Hynix and Micron.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 04 Jan 2025 00:23:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/5f490d92-e1c8-4877-b369-6b470be69d65/ https://minutesof.com/q/5f490d92-e1c8-4877-b369-6b470be69d65/ “And then we started scaling around inference time compute. And it's very clear that we have now added a third axis of scaling performance, and that is reasoning.” — All-In Podcast Sat, 04 Jan 2025 00:23:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/0f558539-ea5f-4335-90b1-230da6124058/ https://minutesof.com/q/0f558539-ea5f-4335-90b1-230da6124058/ “Mark Zuckerberg, Satya, and Sundar just told you in different ways, we are not even thinking about ROI.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/70bba597-1fd8-43fc-82e2-840df2b61146/ https://minutesof.com/q/70bba597-1fd8-43fc-82e2-840df2b61146/ “And if you create that first digital god, we can debate whether it's tens of trillions or hundreds of trillions in value, and we can debate whether or not that's ridiculous.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/3cd17c34-91cc-4d0b-af21-082c3122bb86/ https://minutesof.com/q/3cd17c34-91cc-4d0b-af21-082c3122bb86/ “Larry Page has evidently said internally at Google many times, I am willing to go bankrupt rather than lose this race.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/2415f33d-e0fb-48f1-b415-3378566f2026/ https://minutesof.com/q/2415f33d-e0fb-48f1-b415-3378566f2026/ “x AI decided they were gonna build a 100,000 GPU cluster. And I would say with Elon's unique physical engineering mind, which we've seen play out at SpaceX and Tesla, and now at Neuralink, where he figured out how to miniaturize everything along with really capable teams.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/fb4738e8-409c-43cb-a41b-db079b1e3e9c/ https://minutesof.com/q/fb4738e8-409c-43cb-a41b-db079b1e3e9c/ “And I would say with Elon's unique physical engineering mind, which we've seen play out at SpaceX and Tesla, and now at Neuralink, where he figured out how to miniaturize everything” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/0cfc0642-ca64-4a7f-a032-546fbf63f469/ https://minutesof.com/q/0cfc0642-ca64-4a7f-a032-546fbf63f469/ “And I would say with Elon's unique physical engineering mind, which we've seen play out at SpaceX and Tesla, and now at Neuralink, where he figured out how to miniaturize everything along with really capable teams. I think he rearchitected the x AI data center from first principles in Memphis.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/00d837b3-478e-41b2-b1cd-18e82f06628a/ https://minutesof.com/q/00d837b3-478e-41b2-b1cd-18e82f06628a/ “And because of that, they're able to get enough density that they could effectively make a 100,000 GPU cluster coherent even with Hopper without next generation networking technologies from NVIDIA, Broadcom, and others.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/2a3f67ab-5245-424d-a557-8b9647975ea8/ https://minutesof.com/q/2a3f67ab-5245-424d-a557-8b9647975ea8/ “Chase Coleman, who runs Tiger, who's an exceptional investor, had a really interesting statistic, which was ChatGPT came out in 2022 and was to AI as NetScape Navigator, was to the Internet in 1994.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/51c0b481-36ad-4763-ac8b-a0ef91a66582/ https://minutesof.com/q/51c0b481-36ad-4763-ac8b-a0ef91a66582/ “Only less than 1% of current global Internet market cap was founded. Founded in the two years after Netscape Navigator came out.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/91f8d62c-9179-4722-83b1-a80397265ed3/ https://minutesof.com/q/91f8d62c-9179-4722-83b1-a80397265ed3/ “MFU, model flops utilization, and that generally runs around 35 to 40%. And that's literally the percentage of compute, theoretical compute flops that you're actually applying to trading.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/2ef0281e-1acf-4b2f-a09a-427746b64fa5/ https://minutesof.com/q/2ef0281e-1acf-4b2f-a09a-427746b64fa5/ “You have the same amount of GPUs and the same amount of power presumably. You could choose between faster time to market.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/b18ea10e-8f3d-44a4-afda-d9363c3a12ee/ https://minutesof.com/q/b18ea10e-8f3d-44a4-afda-d9363c3a12ee/ “You could choose between faster time to market. If you run a 50% MFU and your competitor's running 40 for an equivalent amount of trading flops, you could be in market 25% faster.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/80043395-af77-4cbc-a5b7-76c39ad62953/ https://minutesof.com/q/80043395-af77-4cbc-a5b7-76c39ad62953/ “By the way, these models are commodities today, but I am suspicious once we get to scaling laws continue, GPT seven or eight literally cost $500,000,000,000 to trade.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/27c177e8-03c2-4627-956e-295dd3a471e4/ https://minutesof.com/q/27c177e8-03c2-4627-956e-295dd3a471e4/ “MFU is the most important metric because it gives you all of these advantages and ways to differentiate yourself amongst five people, six people who've trained these GPT core class models.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/b33bc467-808c-4c8a-b6e6-b35fc3397fb5/ https://minutesof.com/q/b33bc467-808c-4c8a-b6e6-b35fc3397fb5/ “GPUs have gotten 50 times faster, and the rest of the data center has only gotten four to five times faster.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/e90226f2-0307-4f84-8256-995419be2ebc/ https://minutesof.com/q/e90226f2-0307-4f84-8256-995419be2ebc/ “GPUs have gotten 50 times faster, and the rest of the data center has only gotten four to five times faster. And that is why MFU is so low.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/c6100f7c-5a0b-4c0a-994b-d6d31abbf605/ https://minutesof.com/q/c6100f7c-5a0b-4c0a-994b-d6d31abbf605/ “There's only basically three places in The United States today where you can get a gigawatt of power to a single data center that's reliable enough, I. E. That's nuclear.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/535090c8-2068-4740-9d62-3f36e9c09c8b/ https://minutesof.com/q/535090c8-2068-4740-9d62-3f36e9c09c8b/ “There's only basically three places in The United States today where you can get a gigawatt of power to a single data center that's reliable enough, I.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/f889321d-da19-413a-9ed6-caa3e62e2a31/ https://minutesof.com/q/f889321d-da19-413a-9ed6-caa3e62e2a31/ “And it is solved because photovoltaic cell efficiency is compounding just under 10% a year, and battery efficiency is compounding 200 bps less than that.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/54e32faa-2b0f-4c4e-8873-a20bcaecbf4a/ https://minutesof.com/q/54e32faa-2b0f-4c4e-8873-a20bcaecbf4a/ “These companies are all public, and there is something called return on invested capital. And ROIC has gone up for all of these companies since they ramped CapEx.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/ed56d6a8-3d2e-4f05-a6ab-e1ad7552b742/ https://minutesof.com/q/ed56d6a8-3d2e-4f05-a6ab-e1ad7552b742/ “I think 12 dot five is like GPT three, and it can consistently drive me most places with no interventions. I'm a seasonal driver. I really only drive my Tesla in the summer.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/3ff5389a-9b7a-4d97-a4e5-00e2fffd0090/ https://minutesof.com/q/3ff5389a-9b7a-4d97-a4e5-00e2fffd0090/ “This year, it's like when we turned on 12 dot three, it's like all of the progress over the last ten years was in that one release from the first time I had that Tesla.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/a913c721-311e-4f5d-a524-73f6cda49ae1/ https://minutesof.com/q/a913c721-311e-4f5d-a524-73f6cda49ae1/ “I think they're going to go really fast to GPT-4.5 compute, which means you're going to get, using these orders of magnitude, you're going get a 100x improvement really fast.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/93fe3fec-e305-4aaa-91bc-2b924101aec3/ https://minutesof.com/q/93fe3fec-e305-4aaa-91bc-2b924101aec3/ “We could argue whether it's a 100 x, a thousand x, 10,000 x, bigger than the second biggest trading dataset, which is Weibo.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/5c24fc23-c476-40ad-be46-00fc6b003cb2/ https://minutesof.com/q/5c24fc23-c476-40ad-be46-00fc6b003cb2/ “The only two data sources that will scale infinitely are synthetic data and real world video. And I thought that was interesting.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/ddd77965-12cd-422a-9ef7-5f9c8c50a99b/ https://minutesof.com/q/ddd77965-12cd-422a-9ef7-5f9c8c50a99b/ “I would say probably the average tech or consumer oriented growth stock that's below a $100,000,000,000 in market cap is probably somewhere between 40 and 65 percent off its all time high.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/fc47dddb-65a8-477e-aa6e-5f9cab18c012/ https://minutesof.com/q/fc47dddb-65a8-477e-aa6e-5f9cab18c012/ “The market return, particularly for the Nasdaq, was really dominated by a few stocks, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/8e03624f-6573-45dc-bc4b-f5a969338ad1/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e03624f-6573-45dc-bc4b-f5a969338ad1/ “It's not a comment on Amazon. It's just a comment on the supplier response. They have spent more money on CapEx in the last two years than they did in the preceding twenty years.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/b84158be-ed2c-48d3-9a32-4f05c66c9f6f/ https://minutesof.com/q/b84158be-ed2c-48d3-9a32-4f05c66c9f6f/ “From 1999 to 2019, they spent $62,000,000,000 on CapEx. They're going spend $87,000,000,000 in 2020 and 2021. That's crazy.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/7a681575-6b62-4f6b-85d9-b4d3dbcbb0f8/ https://minutesof.com/q/7a681575-6b62-4f6b-85d9-b4d3dbcbb0f8/ “Taiwan Semi, their 2022 CapEx is going to be many multiples of 2019. 2021 and 2022, they'll spend more than they did in the preceding five years.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/5f67ed17-6c25-42ca-bee5-a83df3dad7b2/ https://minutesof.com/q/5f67ed17-6c25-42ca-bee5-a83df3dad7b2/ “Taiwan Semi, their 2022 CapEx is going to be many multiples of 2019. 2021 and 2022, they'll spend more than they did in the preceding five years. So there is a massive supply response coming.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/c503a8f5-e049-4149-9f2b-e5eec83b1a30/ https://minutesof.com/q/c503a8f5-e049-4149-9f2b-e5eec83b1a30/ “If you trend out and look at real personal consumption expenditures, goods spending is roughly $500,000,000,000 above the pre COVID trend line. Services spending is 500,000,000,000 below the trend line.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/3549271c-1596-4977-9bc1-2e02b8c580d3/ https://minutesof.com/q/3549271c-1596-4977-9bc1-2e02b8c580d3/ “Let's step back and look at the last fifteen years of semis. The industry has completely consolidated to where you almost have these monopolies and almost monopolies or duopolies.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/f0a76ee2-1f49-4271-ad00-0549fc49e249/ https://minutesof.com/q/f0a76ee2-1f49-4271-ad00-0549fc49e249/ “Microsoft wrote about this in a research paper ten years ago, or maybe not twelve years ago, the quality of a given AI algorithm doubles with every 10x increase in the amount of data you use to train that algorithm.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/ecd24ff9-a848-4d28-8d36-42c5c7400b7a/ https://minutesof.com/q/ecd24ff9-a848-4d28-8d36-42c5c7400b7a/ “Marc Andreessen wrote this op ed, whatever it was, ten years ago about how software is eating the world. Now AI is eating software.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/f2124894-8f15-4b0f-ab80-cce3e13fe248/ https://minutesof.com/q/f2124894-8f15-4b0f-ab80-cce3e13fe248/ “Today, Intel, Samsung, Taiwan, Semi, they the only companies in the world that can make leading edge logic.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/1dcd069e-780c-4bdc-92b9-40ee0756f281/ https://minutesof.com/q/1dcd069e-780c-4bdc-92b9-40ee0756f281/ “Today, Intel, Samsung, Taiwan, Semi, they the only companies in the world that can make leading edge logic. There's only three companies that can make leading edge DRAM, maybe four for NAND.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/b3e132bb-39ae-4740-ae72-439262de19b4/ https://minutesof.com/q/b3e132bb-39ae-4740-ae72-439262de19b4/ “But they try and force the open source infrastructure build themselves. And I think Google was the first one to realize, like, Hey, this is kind of silly.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/f5f8e724-bbe8-4b20-8e19-8182f56d0dda/ https://minutesof.com/q/f5f8e724-bbe8-4b20-8e19-8182f56d0dda/ “B, there's a lot of money to be made just in providing these primitives. Let's stop trying to compete with these independent infrastructure software providers right on top of the cloud.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/56c97d0f-9724-4b6e-8f61-35db6a397235/ https://minutesof.com/q/56c97d0f-9724-4b6e-8f61-35db6a397235/ “That's why for the first time ever, for a long time, I forget the exact numbers, but you never had a cybersecurity outcome over 20,000,000,000.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/06c77514-f635-4a6f-88af-7330ea04b9cc/ https://minutesof.com/q/06c77514-f635-4a6f-88af-7330ea04b9cc/ “But his whole strategy a lot of his strategy for venture, which I ruthlessly copied, is around the idea of their profound advantages towards being multistage.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/58623fb7-6bac-4971-bb36-3f63845b8c13/ https://minutesof.com/q/58623fb7-6bac-4971-bb36-3f63845b8c13/ “If I could know one thing about a person to know whether or not they would be a good public equity investor, it would simply be, are you capable of being rational when you're wrong?” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/a10494fc-232e-4bc1-836c-00bedb6f1417/ https://minutesof.com/q/a10494fc-232e-4bc1-836c-00bedb6f1417/ “They're wrong more than they're right, but because they make more money when they're right, they still have a great track record.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/97066165-c35e-45f0-b4eb-65d90edcb697/ https://minutesof.com/q/97066165-c35e-45f0-b4eb-65d90edcb697/ “Valuation spreads within a sector between individual stocks are at all time highs. It was a 4.5 standard deviation relative to the norm only a few days ago.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/87142bf9-899f-4cbf-9eff-59f6ff87ba89/ https://minutesof.com/q/87142bf9-899f-4cbf-9eff-59f6ff87ba89/ “At the beginning of almost every bear market, doing the most obvious things works. So who crushed it for the first three to four weeks of this bear market?” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/4892898f-28b6-435f-bbd1-ff65292b0b52/ https://minutesof.com/q/4892898f-28b6-435f-bbd1-ff65292b0b52/ “Days of liquidity with zero revenue has been the acid liquidity test that I think a lot of investors have been working through.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/a73e3844-5c2f-4c63-ad2a-4773621bc803/ https://minutesof.com/q/a73e3844-5c2f-4c63-ad2a-4773621bc803/ “Days of liquidity with zero revenue has been the acid liquidity test that I think a lot of investors have been working through. And then from a broader perspective, I think a couple of insights.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/453b3fa5-6f74-4bb4-b3bf-ac9f4824f0d5/ https://minutesof.com/q/453b3fa5-6f74-4bb4-b3bf-ac9f4824f0d5/ “Go back to what were the best stocks coming out of June 2009? Netflix, booking.com, Ulta Beauty, Domino's Pizza. Domino's was a name that was incredibly levered.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/015b8347-176b-460d-820e-b78d8cf137e3/ https://minutesof.com/q/015b8347-176b-460d-820e-b78d8cf137e3/ “A lot of people are baselining off what happened in 'eight, 'nine. And I think that is dangerous because in 'eight, 'nine software was seven to 10 of IT spend.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/1799ea24-d524-4a99-b335-47db7041dd3c/ https://minutesof.com/q/1799ea24-d524-4a99-b335-47db7041dd3c/ “And I think that is dangerous because in 'eight, 'nine software was seven to 10 of IT spend. And today it's roughly 30% excluding spending on the big cloud hyperscale infrastructures” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/06ff6be5-3ceb-4746-af61-5830c6667b9b/ https://minutesof.com/q/06ff6be5-3ceb-4746-af61-5830c6667b9b/ “And today it's roughly 30% excluding spending on the big cloud hyperscale infrastructures and service companies like Azure, Amazon web services, and Google GCP.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/0348e47b-4839-4b20-932d-8ecef4749889/ https://minutesof.com/q/0348e47b-4839-4b20-932d-8ecef4749889/ “Robert Smith is the CEO of Vista Equity Partners, brilliant man. And he famously said software is better than first lien debt.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/80a14f75-ac1b-4cd2-9713-badc36ab4172/ https://minutesof.com/q/80a14f75-ac1b-4cd2-9713-badc36ab4172/ “He said, tell Gavin exactly what you just told me. And his sister is a dentist and obviously she's grappling with how to run her practice.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/ffb190ab-f9a0-4dfe-9c65-5f6be6a5185e/ https://minutesof.com/q/ffb190ab-f9a0-4dfe-9c65-5f6be6a5185e/ “In one hour, she cut her software bill in half. One hour, she said there was zero pushback.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/cace17c2-755a-40bc-aec5-3d35cacba599/ https://minutesof.com/q/cace17c2-755a-40bc-aec5-3d35cacba599/ “In one hour, she cut her software bill in half. One hour, she said there was zero pushback. And I've been telling people this story.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/1b39e18e-f86b-4df8-96a6-a9ddc93f8a5c/ https://minutesof.com/q/1b39e18e-f86b-4df8-96a6-a9ddc93f8a5c/ “In the last two days, lots of friends have come to me and said, Hey, I told my brother, my sister, my mom, my dad, my uncle, my aunt, my friend who has a small business, that story, they did the same thing and they cut their software bill 30 to 50% in an hour.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/110ed64b-eb84-48f6-81a4-3249ec376052/ https://minutesof.com/q/110ed64b-eb84-48f6-81a4-3249ec376052/ “It is being woven into the social fabric of the country in a way that I don't think anyone could have imagined even two weeks ago.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/3e10c557-73d3-4f16-ac35-1f6bb5e86e5a/ https://minutesof.com/q/3e10c557-73d3-4f16-ac35-1f6bb5e86e5a/ “And I can only imagine what it feels like to be at whether it's Apple with FaceTime, Google with Hangouts, Facebook with whatever their video chat is.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/5c39f5d7-890f-445c-9516-400d4587567e/ https://minutesof.com/q/5c39f5d7-890f-445c-9516-400d4587567e/ “Would argue personally they're at parody, but 50 bps is huge. If you're 50 bps better, that can be the foundation of hundreds of billions of dollars in market value.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/6651ddfc-20c5-4c7a-a3ea-e02de6be8f23/ https://minutesof.com/q/6651ddfc-20c5-4c7a-a3ea-e02de6be8f23/ “Google found that milliseconds of latency mattered to search. That if you could take two milliseconds out of search latency, that it had a huge impact on search volumes.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/bd1dba45-dfdb-46f8-acbf-476324bf5d9e/ https://minutesof.com/q/bd1dba45-dfdb-46f8-acbf-476324bf5d9e/ “That if you could take two milliseconds out of search latency, that it had a huge impact on search volumes. And Zoom's UI and UX for all sorts of reasons is just better” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/a9830852-9337-4833-a626-bfcc0320b966/ https://minutesof.com/q/a9830852-9337-4833-a626-bfcc0320b966/ “And Zoom's UI and UX for all sorts of reasons is just better than Hangouts, FaceTime or whatever the comparable Facebook product is.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/106ff05b-2489-4b06-a4dc-772798ab474a/ https://minutesof.com/q/106ff05b-2489-4b06-a4dc-772798ab474a/ “The metaverse is simply a series of connected virtual worlds that I firmly believe a majority of people will spend a majority of their waking hours in within my lifetime.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/e2efb4cb-0081-4aec-aead-9382862bcc04/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2efb4cb-0081-4aec-aead-9382862bcc04/ “I think the last data I saw, this was a Telecom Italia stat, so we should not mix and match, but Telecom Italia saw video game traffic up 75% and social media traffic up 0%.” — Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/66bb22b3-09d2-4a87-9a71-ff14a3b5cb60/ https://minutesof.com/q/66bb22b3-09d2-4a87-9a71-ff14a3b5cb60/ “I would argue her work and kind of history suggests that we have another thirty to forty years of rapid and powerful disruption ahead of us.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/76c2769e-e180-49e1-b198-32c19ecf96e0/ https://minutesof.com/q/76c2769e-e180-49e1-b198-32c19ecf96e0/ “And in some ways, I think of the invention of the microchip in 1959 as being or the integrated circuit as being analogous to James Watt's invention of the rotary steam engine in 1761.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/0cfb7c5a-c527-4a0b-851b-25e8158fa91e/ https://minutesof.com/q/0cfb7c5a-c527-4a0b-851b-25e8158fa91e/ “I would argue peak economic, political, social change as a result of that invention was seventy to one hundred years later during the peak of the industrial revolution eighteen twenty to eighteen fifty.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/1d5c3f92-851f-462b-90f8-b51a5cade07f/ https://minutesof.com/q/1d5c3f92-851f-462b-90f8-b51a5cade07f/ “It's critical in growth investing to assume multiple compression. It doesn't always happen, but you want to be paid based on business outcomes and assume valuation is not part of the outcome.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/f11ab718-6d02-4ad9-86d3-c775177aec8e/ https://minutesof.com/q/f11ab718-6d02-4ad9-86d3-c775177aec8e/ “And as soon as I heard that, it's like, wow. It really doesn't matter. Apple went on to be seven x, 10 x, 15 x from there.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/e4c2e666-1807-492e-b92c-f2ba688adc52/ https://minutesof.com/q/e4c2e666-1807-492e-b92c-f2ba688adc52/ “One is, I think the price to used iPhones is critically important to Apple's business model. Why is that? Used iPhones retain their value much better than used Android phones.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/9f77f6ef-0bcb-4524-a8be-e6ae9b60c1a8/ https://minutesof.com/q/9f77f6ef-0bcb-4524-a8be-e6ae9b60c1a8/ “Used iPhones retain their value much better than used Android phones. When you trade in your phone, you capture that.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/779c17c7-a53e-4162-9b8e-8cb353fecb78/ https://minutesof.com/q/779c17c7-a53e-4162-9b8e-8cb353fecb78/ “When you trade in your phone, you capture that. That lets the used iPhones retain their value better, supports a dramatic price premium for Apple.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/bc0a27c1-c3d4-49ba-b094-6eeef85f6af6/ https://minutesof.com/q/bc0a27c1-c3d4-49ba-b094-6eeef85f6af6/ “That comparable Android phone is being traded in for probably a $150, which means you're paying $850.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/cff98119-a04f-47f5-b046-babfe3b6a99a/ https://minutesof.com/q/cff98119-a04f-47f5-b046-babfe3b6a99a/ “So Apple can charge the consumer more than its competitors, but actually have a lower effective price to the consumer.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/f2d2fad6-7600-4063-962e-2e4712256930/ https://minutesof.com/q/f2d2fad6-7600-4063-962e-2e4712256930/ “Intel for the last, I don't know, fifty years, sixty years always got to the next node in semiconductor manufacturing first.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/ae9bc810-10e0-40da-9954-7fba4e67c73c/ https://minutesof.com/q/ae9bc810-10e0-40da-9954-7fba4e67c73c/ “And in 2018, and it's important that the Taiwan Semi seven nanometer node is equivalent to the Intel 10 nanometer node.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/15fb6ff0-cdb7-40cc-af02-8e5afd2dc17e/ https://minutesof.com/q/15fb6ff0-cdb7-40cc-af02-8e5afd2dc17e/ “Taiwan Semi got to the node before Intel, which meant that Taiwan Semi, who supplies most semiconductor companies that you can think of Yeah.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/c6581532-cbbe-425f-bb38-995439fb7bb4/ https://minutesof.com/q/c6581532-cbbe-425f-bb38-995439fb7bb4/ “The only thing that has enabled the AI revolution that we're living through, which I think we're at the bottom of the first inning in, is one, we had the ability to do cloud computing, so just apply significantly more computational power to old algorithms, and then b, we had dramatically more data.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/61486ea1-4cce-4d0d-8d5a-c4ac5953b53c/ https://minutesof.com/q/61486ea1-4cce-4d0d-8d5a-c4ac5953b53c/ “So you've had this huge trend towards people moving back into the cities because they wanna be able to walk around. People don't like long commutes.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/fcaf1655-8cfc-4eaa-b25c-44d11dec4058/ https://minutesof.com/q/fcaf1655-8cfc-4eaa-b25c-44d11dec4058/ “I think it is inevitable that a majority of people will spend a majority of their waking hours in virtual worlds within our lifetimes.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/6cfa5495-08e9-4aa7-82a5-14c3cb024860/ https://minutesof.com/q/6cfa5495-08e9-4aa7-82a5-14c3cb024860/ “Facebook was roughly 7% of consumers' time spent across all mediums in The United States. And it was just under 4% of advertising dollars.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/52bd55ad-4b86-41b8-8e39-7317f6fb664e/ https://minutesof.com/q/52bd55ad-4b86-41b8-8e39-7317f6fb664e/ “You could just measure search in a way you can't measure slotting fees. Anything you can measure generally gets, in some ways, may be overvalued in today's Internet world.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/dcafe473-16fe-480f-af13-3dcb7d361e7a/ https://minutesof.com/q/dcafe473-16fe-480f-af13-3dcb7d361e7a/ “CAC is the new rent. Customer acquisition cost, online ad spend. It's not just replacing other forms of ad spend. For a lot of businesses, it is replacing rent. Storefronts.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/4fb4623a-0df9-4d80-861e-5a7d6a6ab8f1/ https://minutesof.com/q/4fb4623a-0df9-4d80-861e-5a7d6a6ab8f1/ “From a monetization perspective, your average mobile phone game monetizes, let's call it, 8 to 10¢ an hour. If it's not average, that's a reasonably well monetized game.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/32e64b43-db5d-48ee-815c-272156cf2971/ https://minutesof.com/q/32e64b43-db5d-48ee-815c-272156cf2971/ “The single most predictive element of knowledge about AI quality is the quantity of data used to train the algorithm.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/585e22b4-452b-4998-98ed-1f84f746f495/ https://minutesof.com/q/585e22b4-452b-4998-98ed-1f84f746f495/ “All that matters is the quantity of data, and it's been very well established in multiple papers from both Google and Microsoft research that for every order of magnitude increase in the data you use to train an algorithm, the quality of the AI doubles.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/1c159533-7002-43df-a5db-be3d8cc9d824/ https://minutesof.com/q/1c159533-7002-43df-a5db-be3d8cc9d824/ “and it's been very well established in multiple papers from both Google and Microsoft research that for every order of magnitude increase in the data you use to train an algorithm, the quality of the AI doubles.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/d768013b-3fec-4913-82a9-60f73eb9a39a/ https://minutesof.com/q/d768013b-3fec-4913-82a9-60f73eb9a39a/ “it's been very well established in multiple papers from both Google and Microsoft research that for every order of magnitude increase in the data you use to train an algorithm, the quality of the AI doubles.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000