The Minutes of Gavin Baker on ai https://minutesof.com/gavin-baker/on/ai/ Everything Gavin Baker has said on AI: 17 verbatim quotes between November 2019 and August 2026, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording it came… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:21:41 +0000 Baker notes that a 50% price cut in GPT 5.6 drove 14x volume increase, calling it wild. https://minutesof.com/q/0ab17321-1fa0-4e03-973d-6b09477fe693/ https://minutesof.com/q/0ab17321-1fa0-4e03-973d-6b09477fe693/ “50% price cut driving 14x more volume is kinda wild. https://t.co/WJJ4ET0Gh1” — X Sat, 29 Aug 2026 17:53:44 +0000 ai Baker agrees that Jensen is competing with OpenAI and predicts American open-weight models will approach the f https://minutesof.com/q/c61d7914-6ccd-414e-a014-d20425f1ebd0/ https://minutesof.com/q/c61d7914-6ccd-414e-a014-d20425f1ebd0/ “@dnapway Directionally accurate imo. I think we are going to see American open-weight models approach the frontier one way or another.” — X Sat, 29 Aug 2026 13:47:09 +0000 ai Baker reveals TSMC executives dismissed Sam Altman as a podcast pro when they met with him. https://minutesof.com/q/253cd136-c2ae-463c-993b-e953ec41d7ac/ https://minutesof.com/q/253cd136-c2ae-463c-993b-e953ec41d7ac/ “But they're just not going to and the TSM executives are the people who met with Sam Altman, and they dismissed him as a podcast pro.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 ai Baker argues silicon will eat the world because AI is far more computationally intensive than deterministic so https://minutesof.com/q/cf0664cd-4be9-48d0-b17c-787e1d380449/ https://minutesof.com/q/cf0664cd-4be9-48d0-b17c-787e1d380449/ “And the nature of AI just as AI eats the world, silicon is going to eat the world because it's so much more computationally intensive than deterministic software written by humans.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 ai Baker explains AI recomputes answers probabilistically each time, enabling superhuman capabilities but requiri https://minutesof.com/q/f9d8be14-a3e0-4d46-93f0-a74b86319592/ https://minutesof.com/q/f9d8be14-a3e0-4d46-93f0-a74b86319592/ “AI, even if you put a harness on it, even if you do the chain of thought, even if you have multiple agents, it's probabilistic that it is recomputing the answer each time.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 ai Baker calculates rendering Monopoly Go with VEO3 would cost over 100x the game's revenue. https://minutesof.com/q/92c8f11c-3e80-4ba8-9041-57c9ce86cb86/ https://minutesof.com/q/92c8f11c-3e80-4ba8-9041-57c9ce86cb86/ “Monopoly Go is a game where we have the revenue and the hours played and it is to render it using list prices for something like VEO3 is more than two orders of magnitude greater than its revenue. So what is the role for human creativity, man? I don't know.” — Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 ai Baker explains continual learning as models dynamically updating weights in real-time, unlike current reinforc https://minutesof.com/q/b32b5e45-ab6f-4748-bcad-62727d94ff2f/ https://minutesof.com/q/b32b5e45-ab6f-4748-bcad-62727d94ff2f/ “Continual learning is a model that dynamically adjusts its weights or adjusts in some way in real time.” — Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai Baker says no one on earth knows how or why scaling laws for pre-training work, only that they do. https://minutesof.com/q/51979602-4b9e-4e59-a51c-540b078fa3b8/ https://minutesof.com/q/51979602-4b9e-4e59-a51c-540b078fa3b8/ “They stated that unequivocally. And that's important because no one on planet earth knows how or why scaling laws for pre training work.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 ai Baker says no one on earth knows how or why scaling laws for pre-training work, it's an empirical observation. https://minutesof.com/q/8eb07bfe-01aa-40a9-857d-dcf1bcbe4688/ https://minutesof.com/q/8eb07bfe-01aa-40a9-857d-dcf1bcbe4688/ “And that's important because no one on planet earth knows how or why scaling laws for pre training work. It's actually not a law.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 ai Baker argues SaaS companies are repeating brick-and-mortar retailers' mistake by rejecting lower-margin AI bus https://minutesof.com/q/a4e665dd-3663-4c29-8c75-622b18264f6c/ https://minutesof.com/q/a4e665dd-3663-4c29-8c75-622b18264f6c/ “I think that application SaaS companies are making the exact same mistake that brick and mortar retailers did with e commerce.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 ai Baker cites research showing AI algorithm quality doubles with every 10x increase in training data. https://minutesof.com/q/f0a76ee2-1f49-4271-ad00-0549fc49e249/ https://minutesof.com/q/f0a76ee2-1f49-4271-ad00-0549fc49e249/ “Microsoft wrote about this in a research paper ten years ago, or maybe not twelve years ago, the quality of a given AI algorithm doubles with every 10x increase in the amount of data you use to train that algorithm.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 ai Baker argues AI is now eating software, extending Andreessen's famous thesis. https://minutesof.com/q/ecd24ff9-a848-4d28-8d36-42c5c7400b7a/ https://minutesof.com/q/ecd24ff9-a848-4d28-8d36-42c5c7400b7a/ “Marc Andreessen wrote this op ed, whatever it was, ten years ago about how software is eating the world. Now AI is eating software.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 ai Baker argues AI has changed cybersecurity economics, enabling companies to exceed $20B valuations for the firs https://minutesof.com/q/56c97d0f-9724-4b6e-8f61-35db6a397235/ https://minutesof.com/q/56c97d0f-9724-4b6e-8f61-35db6a397235/ “That's why for the first time ever, for a long time, I forget the exact numbers, but you never had a cybersecurity outcome over 20,000,000,000.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 ai Baker cites research showing AI quality doubles with every 10x increase in training data quantity. https://minutesof.com/q/585e22b4-452b-4998-98ed-1f84f746f495/ https://minutesof.com/q/585e22b4-452b-4998-98ed-1f84f746f495/ “All that matters is the quantity of data, and it's been very well established in multiple papers from both Google and Microsoft research that for every order of magnitude increase in the data you use to train an algorithm, the quality of the AI doubles.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 ai Baker cites research showing every 10x increase in training data doubles AI quality. https://minutesof.com/q/d768013b-3fec-4913-82a9-60f73eb9a39a/ https://minutesof.com/q/d768013b-3fec-4913-82a9-60f73eb9a39a/ “it's been very well established in multiple papers from both Google and Microsoft research that for every order of magnitude increase in the data you use to train an algorithm, the quality of the AI doubles.” — Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 ai