The Minutes of Howard Marks on ai https://minutesof.com/howard-marks/on/ai/ Everything Howard Marks has said on AI: 45 verbatim quotes between June 2022 and June 2026, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording it came from. en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:22:26 +0000 Marks states nobody can specify what AI will do, when, for whom, or how much profit it will produce. https://minutesof.com/q/d6ea2caa-3f0e-4db8-9d73-5fe4e842e28f/ https://minutesof.com/q/d6ea2caa-3f0e-4db8-9d73-5fe4e842e28f/ “I've never heard anybody tell me exactly what AI will be able to do or when or for whom or how much profit it'll produce and for whom.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 ai Marks wrote that if AI exuberance doesn't produce a money-losing bubble, it will be the first technological in https://minutesof.com/q/ff90aee0-eaa9-45e9-86bc-4c6d98a0c673/ https://minutesof.com/q/ff90aee0-eaa9-45e9-86bc-4c6d98a0c673/ “So I wrote in a memo recently this year, and I think it's true that if this technological innovation with its exuberance doesn't produce a money losing bubble, it'll be the first.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 ai Marks calls AI the hardest thing he has ever seen in investing due to enormous uncertainty. https://minutesof.com/q/efb878ef-34a1-4337-b1ae-2fb1f4a951ba/ https://minutesof.com/q/efb878ef-34a1-4337-b1ae-2fb1f4a951ba/ “This is the hardest thing I think I've ever seen in the investment world because of this enormous degree of uncertainty.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 ai Marks describes Claude making a wordplay joke when asked to be hypercritical of his memo. https://minutesof.com/q/84e9ef85-92bc-47e5-910a-2a6c6257c7ec/ https://minutesof.com/q/84e9ef85-92bc-47e5-910a-2a6c6257c7ec/ “So it writes me back, and it says, do you want me to be hypercritical or hypocritical? It's making a joke.” — Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 ai Marks reports Claude made a joke distinguishing between hypercritical and hypocritical. https://minutesof.com/q/c72b430c-b8d7-471e-8b22-b7748216d7bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/c72b430c-b8d7-471e-8b22-b7748216d7bc/ “So it writes me back, and it says, do you want me to be hypercritical or hypocritical?” — Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 ai Marks argues AI innovation speed with Claude and coding models is faster than any previous technology. https://minutesof.com/q/fa7a9be4-f75f-4428-8729-d75d8a50608e/ https://minutesof.com/q/fa7a9be4-f75f-4428-8729-d75d8a50608e/ “I think innovation, I think if you look at the Claude and all the coding models and the way they've progressed and the way and the way Anthropix revenues have progressed, I think you have to say that this is faster than anything we've ever seen before.” — Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 ai Marks warns AI's innovation speed exceeds society's adjustment capacity, predicting significant dislocation pe https://minutesof.com/q/d3677ca1-e6af-4699-9a1a-72ff4e0bb67d/ https://minutesof.com/q/d3677ca1-e6af-4699-9a1a-72ff4e0bb67d/ “Mhmm. So you might say it'll catch up, but I think you could I think at minimum, you're talking about a significant period of dislocation.” — Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 ai Marks argues AI differs from prior technologies by designing jobs autonomously rather than just doing assigned https://minutesof.com/q/4a1f450b-a2bb-4005-a592-a108df354a25/ https://minutesof.com/q/4a1f450b-a2bb-4005-a592-a108df354a25/ “AI, it's it's different. It's not just gonna do the job we used to do. It's gonna design new jobs. Mhmm. It's gonna assign new jobs.” — Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 ai Marks argues AI differs from prior technologies by autonomously designing and assigning new work without instr https://minutesof.com/q/7a6a1968-0804-46e4-81d8-b253c4fb0c5d/ https://minutesof.com/q/7a6a1968-0804-46e4-81d8-b253c4fb0c5d/ “It's gonna take on work we didn't think it could do, and it and and it's gonna operate, at some point in time without instruction.” — Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 ai Marks notes ChatGPT's new model helped design itself, which he finds unprecedented. https://minutesof.com/q/20afd800-1c24-49bf-a53f-73f2a46e7faa/ https://minutesof.com/q/20afd800-1c24-49bf-a53f-73f2a46e7faa/ “And in the write up for the for the model, they said, basically, in English, AI, the model helped us design the model.” — Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 ai Marks questions whether AI can identify future Amazon or Steve Jobs from present information. https://minutesof.com/q/7848f479-752a-408e-9567-beda5ec890b8/ https://minutesof.com/q/7848f479-752a-408e-9567-beda5ec890b8/ “Can AI sit down with five business plans and figure out which one is Amazon? Can AI sit down with five CEOs and figure out which one is Steve Jobs.” — Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 ai Marks questions whether AI models trained on same history can produce different investment outcomes. https://minutesof.com/q/7733a983-4965-4bf3-8f33-e91c6ac63172/ https://minutesof.com/q/7733a983-4965-4bf3-8f33-e91c6ac63172/ “Are some AI models smarter than others? Since they all have super IQs, computing power, and they all are trained on the same history, are some smarter than others?” — Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 ai Marks argues government can replace paychecks but not the sense of purpose and structure that work provides. https://minutesof.com/q/1f7d4144-3e24-4d24-a1ad-f7ca508e5b61/ https://minutesof.com/q/1f7d4144-3e24-4d24-a1ad-f7ca508e5b61/ “And and the government, in theory, can make up the paycheck, but they can't make up the sense of purpose and the reason to get out of bed and the structure for your day.” — CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 ai Marks doubts AI can pick the best managers because it requires intuition and subjective feel. https://minutesof.com/q/ae93d8f1-76ae-4595-b625-f12f9d452afc/ https://minutesof.com/q/ae93d8f1-76ae-4595-b625-f12f9d452afc/ “Because picking the best managers requires an intuition and a subjective feel that I would be surprised to learn that AI can be very good at.” — Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 ai Marks argues AI makes the world more unpredictable than any time in his lifetime, challenging investment decis https://minutesof.com/q/35ef7d2a-6017-4720-af28-bdffe9c01afb/ https://minutesof.com/q/35ef7d2a-6017-4720-af28-bdffe9c01afb/ “the changes that are underway today, and in particular the introduction of AI, render the world much less predictable than at any time, probably any time ever, and certainly any time in my lifetime.” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 ai Marks cites Block eliminating 40% of its workforce in one day as evidence most people underestimate AI's impac https://minutesof.com/q/3a0a77f4-43be-4961-a551-ee04b6f7c481/ https://minutesof.com/q/3a0a77f4-43be-4961-a551-ee04b6f7c481/ “40% of the workforce gone in one day because AI could do the work cheaper and faster. So how many people in the world understand the potential import of that?” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 ai Marks notes OpenAI revealed their new model helped build itself, which he finds eye opening. https://minutesof.com/q/5cd43cb3-fc2a-4250-b540-e5d60d9fb0f3/ https://minutesof.com/q/5cd43cb3-fc2a-4250-b540-e5d60d9fb0f3/ “OpenAI brought out a new model. And in the descriptive materials, they said that the that the model helped build the model, which is really eye opening.” — CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 ai Marks says AI can eliminate a huge percentage of knowledge work, citing Block laying off 4,000 people. https://minutesof.com/q/1c5a430a-2728-46bb-bbf9-320c48ff85ad/ https://minutesof.com/q/1c5a430a-2728-46bb-bbf9-320c48ff85ad/ “Clearly, it can eliminate a a huge percentage of of knowledge work. And you we saw Friday block 10,000 employees, let 40%, 4,000 people let go” — CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 ai Marks says AI can eliminate a huge percentage of knowledge work, citing Block laying off 4,000 employees in on https://minutesof.com/q/9e5df2e7-0b2f-4ce5-9467-4812f1737ed0/ https://minutesof.com/q/9e5df2e7-0b2f-4ce5-9467-4812f1737ed0/ “And you we saw Friday block 10,000 employees, let 40%, 4,000 people let go in one go, who who aren't needed anymore because AI can do it better and cheaper and faster.” — CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 ai Marks expresses concern that AI moves faster than society can adjust, creating a formula for disruption. https://minutesof.com/q/bb61e436-2a86-4fae-9814-5a87609bf7a8/ https://minutesof.com/q/bb61e436-2a86-4fae-9814-5a87609bf7a8/ “So one of my concerns is that AI moves faster than the ability of society to adjust to it. And that and that is a formula for disruption.” — CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 ai Marks warns AI may move faster than society can adjust, creating a formula for disruption. https://minutesof.com/q/90dcd68e-dc0f-4973-aebd-6bdcf011bb17/ https://minutesof.com/q/90dcd68e-dc0f-4973-aebd-6bdcf011bb17/ “one of my concerns is that AI moves faster than the ability of society to adjust to it. And that and that is a formula for disruption.” — CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 ai Marks says if you think you know what will happen with AI, you don't understand what's going on. https://minutesof.com/q/11062a4c-cd6d-4469-ba9c-a0712af200bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/11062a4c-cd6d-4469-ba9c-a0712af200bc/ “I think it was Walter Cronkite who said if you're not confused, you don't know what's going on. I would say if you think you know what's gonna happen,” — CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 ai Marks argues anyone claiming to know AI's trajectory doesn't understand the situation; we're in the first inni https://minutesof.com/q/e0738fd2-992a-4f2f-953e-3dceeb6a4864/ https://minutesof.com/q/e0738fd2-992a-4f2f-953e-3dceeb6a4864/ “I would say if you think you know what's gonna happen, you don't know understand what's going on. We're at the we're in the first inning of a very long unpredictable game.” — CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 ai Marks says if you think you know what will happen with AI, you don't understand what's going on. https://minutesof.com/q/f1c96d04-4b75-4e18-b602-59c0af6c1688/ https://minutesof.com/q/f1c96d04-4b75-4e18-b602-59c0af6c1688/ “I would say if you think you know what's gonna happen, you don't know understand what's going on.” — CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 ai Marks describes AI as the first inning of a long unpredictable game with unknown rules. https://minutesof.com/q/eb100222-a82f-46c9-ac2b-18f80d5dc74c/ https://minutesof.com/q/eb100222-a82f-46c9-ac2b-18f80d5dc74c/ “We're at the we're in the first inning of a very long unpredictable game. We don't know what the rules are or or have any idea how many innings there are” — CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 ai Marks says we're in the first inning of a very long unpredictable AI game with unknown rules. https://minutesof.com/q/f3dad23e-927a-4faf-8403-8b8b1bc3cfd7/ https://minutesof.com/q/f3dad23e-927a-4faf-8403-8b8b1bc3cfd7/ “We're at the we're in the first inning of a very long unpredictable game. We don't know what the rules are or or have any idea how many innings there are in the game.” — CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 ai Marks cites Thinking Machine Labs raising two billion dollars at twelve billion valuation without disclosing i https://minutesof.com/q/972f8563-02fc-4bf5-88d4-438f4ab3b946/ https://minutesof.com/q/972f8563-02fc-4bf5-88d4-438f4ab3b946/ “some woman left OpenAI, started a company called Thinking Machine Labs, went out to raise money, and she said this company is going to engage in AI, but I can't tell you what we're going to do. It's a secret. And people gave her $2,000,000,000 for a sixth of the company.” — Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 ai Marks says nobody can explain how AI will change the world, unlike the internet bubble where the vision was cl https://minutesof.com/q/af57e620-cfa5-49b3-8f31-2d2fe3bca123/ https://minutesof.com/q/af57e620-cfa5-49b3-8f31-2d2fe3bca123/ “I've never heard anybody tell me how AI is going to change the world. We know it's a powerful force. Can think, it can process data.” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 ai Marks cites Buffett's point that productivity gains from internet and AI may not translate to profitability, n https://minutesof.com/q/cd961138-5866-45b5-86d4-56a7a6f2b929/ https://minutesof.com/q/cd961138-5866-45b5-86d4-56a7a6f2b929/ “There's no doubt that the internet will produce a great increase in productivity. It's not clear that it'll have a positive impact on profitability. And I think the same is true of AI.” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 ai Marks quotes Buffett distinguishing productivity gains from profitability in technology like internet and AI. https://minutesof.com/q/0de0a86e-9b0d-4009-b8a5-435a5803d499/ https://minutesof.com/q/0de0a86e-9b0d-4009-b8a5-435a5803d499/ “There's no doubt that the internet will produce a great increase in productivity. It's not clear that it'll have a positive impact on profitability.” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 ai Marks notes AI could eliminate half of entry level jobs but questions whether productivity gains translate to https://minutesof.com/q/b8de4185-9587-4979-b30a-f431f5f7446d/ https://minutesof.com/q/b8de4185-9587-4979-b30a-f431f5f7446d/ “You say that AI has the ability to eliminate half of entry level jobs. That was the whole conversation because then they cut to something else. But the point is that may be true.” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 ai Marks notes CNN reported AI could eliminate half of entry level jobs while maintaining US GDP, raising profita https://minutesof.com/q/1766defe-a210-445f-8840-64bca5ff19b0/ https://minutesof.com/q/1766defe-a210-445f-8840-64bca5ff19b0/ “And obviously if you can produce The US GDP and eliminate half the entry level jobs, it could be more profitable or certainly more productive.” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 ai Marks questions whether AI savings will accrue as profits or be competed away through lower prices. https://minutesof.com/q/538f76b7-6853-4262-9a53-f082056d956f/ https://minutesof.com/q/538f76b7-6853-4262-9a53-f082056d956f/ “To whom will the savings accrue? If different companies are competing to provide the AI service, maybe they'll compete on price to the point where it's not profitable for them.” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 ai Marks suggests AI savings may accrue to consumers through price competition rather than to company profits. https://minutesof.com/q/45757099-7e4d-47d4-8b48-eb34bc6ce2c0/ https://minutesof.com/q/45757099-7e4d-47d4-8b48-eb34bc6ce2c0/ “If different companies are competing to provide the AI service, maybe they'll compete on price to the point where it's not profitable for them.” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 ai Marks frames the AI investment choice as binary moonshot bets versus incremental gains in established tech com https://minutesof.com/q/05f6eec2-bccf-4a48-b537-bdf45a848d01/ https://minutesof.com/q/05f6eec2-bccf-4a48-b537-bdf45a848d01/ “Or do you want to invest in a great tech company, which is already existing and making a lot of money where AI could be incremental, but not life changing?” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 ai Marks cites Buffett's distinction that productivity gains from Internet and AI may not translate to profitabil https://minutesof.com/q/4e58de77-4f33-48b0-a42b-9f893f49347a/ https://minutesof.com/q/4e58de77-4f33-48b0-a42b-9f893f49347a/ “There's no doubt that the Internet will produce a great increase in productivity. It's not clear that it'll have a positive impact on profitability. And I think the same is true of AI.” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 ai Marks questions whether AI eliminating half of entry-level jobs will translate into profits or just lower cons https://minutesof.com/q/e91960f1-e867-4261-b7d8-8800785e0242/ https://minutesof.com/q/e91960f1-e867-4261-b7d8-8800785e0242/ “if you can produce The US GDP and eliminate half the entry level jobs, it could be more profitable or certainly more productive. But the question is, will it be more profitable?” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 ai Marks is certain AI will irreversibly change society but questions whether its implementation will prove exces https://minutesof.com/q/f515ecef-2669-4383-989e-a1d63122bab4/ https://minutesof.com/q/f515ecef-2669-4383-989e-a1d63122bab4/ “And the question is, will the implementation prove to have been excessive in scope and in in the way it's financed?” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 ai Marks argues job losses from automation and offshoring coincided with the opiate epidemic in both amount and g https://minutesof.com/q/8bfbd17b-1523-4e5f-bde3-aa92165c6333/ https://minutesof.com/q/8bfbd17b-1523-4e5f-bde3-aa92165c6333/ “And as I said in the addendum, When we lost jobs to automation and offshoring, I think that that coincided with the opiate epidemic and not only in amount but also in location.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 ai Marks says current AI frenzy has not reached bubble-level mania yet. https://minutesof.com/q/312f7e4b-2ac4-441d-9842-48da86db0817/ https://minutesof.com/q/312f7e4b-2ac4-441d-9842-48da86db0817/ “And I don't detect that level of mania at this time, so I have not put the bubble label Right.” — CNBC Television Mon, 13 Oct 2025 16:15:11 +0000 ai Marks says he has not labeled current AI frenzy a bubble because mania has not reached critical level. https://minutesof.com/q/ee221612-6fb6-4b8e-9cc4-b77f0adade2b/ https://minutesof.com/q/ee221612-6fb6-4b8e-9cc4-b77f0adade2b/ “And I don't detect that level of mania at this time, so I have not put the bubble label Right. On this on this incident.” — CNBC Television Mon, 13 Oct 2025 16:15:11 +0000 ai Marks says AI will change the world and has been successful, with investors piling in. https://minutesof.com/q/627d643b-04c0-4c40-b7da-6ee5409c34e2/ https://minutesof.com/q/627d643b-04c0-4c40-b7da-6ee5409c34e2/ “I think there's relatively little doubt that AI will change the world. And AI has been successful as an investment, and people are piling in,” — CNBC Television Mon, 13 Oct 2025 16:15:11 +0000 ai Marks says AI will change the world and has been successful, with investors piling in amid FOMO. https://minutesof.com/q/1fb3d2d9-50ad-4d59-9341-035352c7b2ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/1fb3d2d9-50ad-4d59-9341-035352c7b2ed/ “I think there's relatively little doubt that AI will change the world. And AI has been successful as an investment, and people are piling in, and there's some fear about being left out.” — CNBC Television Mon, 13 Oct 2025 16:15:11 +0000 ai Marks judges that AI investing has not reached the critical mass of mania needed for a bubble. https://minutesof.com/q/5e0cc192-3d2d-4ea9-9757-8d22533e8427/ https://minutesof.com/q/5e0cc192-3d2d-4ea9-9757-8d22533e8427/ “But to me, it just hasn't this is a judgment call. And to me, it just hasn't reached that critical mass of mania.” — CNBC Television Mon, 13 Oct 2025 16:15:11 +0000 ai Marks argues computers cannot identify the next Steve Jobs or Amazon through subjective future judgments. https://minutesof.com/q/b8cd089e-5d40-41ce-be19-1d0f524366ba/ https://minutesof.com/q/b8cd089e-5d40-41ce-be19-1d0f524366ba/ “I don't think it can look at five business plans and figure out which is the next Amazon. These are subjective judgments about the future,” — Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 ai