The Minutes of Howard Marks on credit cycle https://minutesof.com/howard-marks/on/credit-cycle/ Everything Howard Marks has said on credit cycle: 44 verbatim quotes between March 2015 and June 2026, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:22:26 +0000 Marks says credit markets have been on a seventeen-year run since the 2009 financial crisis low. https://minutesof.com/q/f933b6d8-6cd4-4999-a082-b36dcb266cd5/ https://minutesof.com/q/f933b6d8-6cd4-4999-a082-b36dcb266cd5/ “Well, the the credit markets have been on a tear for the most part of the last seventeen years.” — Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 credit cycle Marks describes competitive pressure forcing lenders to cut loan prices to avoid losing deals. https://minutesof.com/q/5e1ab57a-e8ac-44b2-8df5-2012f497fc1e/ https://minutesof.com/q/5e1ab57a-e8ac-44b2-8df5-2012f497fc1e/ “If I don't cut the price of this loan, my competitor will make the loan, and I'll have to look on. So these this is what happens.” — Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 credit cycle Marks argues the current credit cycle is likely the longest in history despite pandemic interruption. https://minutesof.com/q/c8452aaa-75a6-4472-bccb-4331fd1eac65/ https://minutesof.com/q/c8452aaa-75a6-4472-bccb-4331fd1eac65/ “I think the credit cycle has been very strong. It's gone on with the interruption of the pandemic, probably the longest time in history.” — Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 credit cycle Marks notes declining rates made financial engineering and leverage particularly effective at generating retur https://minutesof.com/q/db0db0ac-f07f-4624-b6fd-32f96cce5c4c/ https://minutesof.com/q/db0db0ac-f07f-4624-b6fd-32f96cce5c4c/ “In this period we've been through of declining interest rates, financial engineering helped a lot, merely owning assets with leverage helped a lot, things regularly went to premium valuations.” — Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 credit cycle Marks argues making money in a favorable environment proves nothing, as it can result from luck rather than sk https://minutesof.com/q/f7291038-b263-4b1a-ac70-0f73234e8f92/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7291038-b263-4b1a-ac70-0f73234e8f92/ “To make money in a salutary investment environment, you can do it on the basis of good judgment and hard work and skill, or you can do it on aggressiveness and getting lucky.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 credit cycle Marks reframes economic cycles as excesses and corrections around trend lines rather than simple ups and downs https://minutesof.com/q/37841e74-af02-4eba-8329-112c7643ae0a/ https://minutesof.com/q/37841e74-af02-4eba-8329-112c7643ae0a/ “So rather than thinking of cycles as ups and downs, which I think most people do, think of them as excesses and corrections, excesses and corrections.” — Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 credit cycle Marks reports Oaktree achieved 99% success rate in bonds paying interest and principal as promised over 48 yea https://minutesof.com/q/ae9aa677-6901-4962-a424-ac008460e488/ https://minutesof.com/q/ae9aa677-6901-4962-a424-ac008460e488/ “in our experience, ninety nine percent of the bonds have paid interest in principle as promised. So I think I can say almost every time.” — Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 credit cycle Marks states Oaktree's default rate over 40 years was one-third the market average of 3.6-3.7% annually. https://minutesof.com/q/02f177de-1f74-4320-b66c-82974016c635/ https://minutesof.com/q/02f177de-1f74-4320-b66c-82974016c635/ “over the last forty years, on average, something like 3.6 or 3.7% of all high yield bonds have gone into default every year, and our default rate has been roughly a third.” — Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 credit cycle Marks bought senior debt at prices profitable even if companies worth one-fifth of buyout valuations. https://minutesof.com/q/fd603b37-9361-42fa-b407-5c96fd084939/ https://minutesof.com/q/fd603b37-9361-42fa-b407-5c96fd084939/ “we were buying the senior most debt of these companies at prices such that if these companies ended up being worth a third or a quarter or a fifth of what these great buyout firms had bought them for a year or two ago, we would be okay.” — Wharton School Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:17:40 +0000 credit cycle Marks argues private credit managers took in too much money and invested it too fast, making bad decisions. https://minutesof.com/q/46d27ebc-2050-4731-ada9-d4f7636a0269/ https://minutesof.com/q/46d27ebc-2050-4731-ada9-d4f7636a0269/ “There's nothing wrong with lending money to companies. The question is, do you do it wisely?” — CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 credit cycle Marks notes optimists have been winning the market tug of war for forty-three months. https://minutesof.com/q/e2f186c1-24f1-4804-aff1-69558971cbbc/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2f186c1-24f1-4804-aff1-69558971cbbc/ “The pessimist the optimists had basically been winning for the last, I think now it's, forty three months.” — CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 credit cycle Marks observes a 17-year period without profound low points led people to forget leverage risks. https://minutesof.com/q/a29ae6a2-fd8c-46f0-8302-5baae4692c36/ https://minutesof.com/q/a29ae6a2-fd8c-46f0-8302-5baae4692c36/ “And from March of o nine until, let's say, January '26, there generally were not profound low points. And when good times roll on that long, people forget about the possibility of bad times.” — Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 credit cycle Marks says defaults have not yet revealed who made bad loans but expects that to come. https://minutesof.com/q/34886382-f9f1-4554-a456-249de954c7d6/ https://minutesof.com/q/34886382-f9f1-4554-a456-249de954c7d6/ “We actually haven't had many defaults yet, so we haven't had a chance yet to see who made bad loans. That's coming too. But I think that we were reserved in 2025.” — Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 credit cycle Marks reports 99% of Oaktree's high yield bonds paid off but warns competition periodically erodes returns and https://minutesof.com/q/dea444d8-5419-489c-b4d8-3985e86340c7/ https://minutesof.com/q/dea444d8-5419-489c-b4d8-3985e86340c7/ “I think it's 99% of the high yield bonds we bought paid off. So, you know, there's nothing wrong with it fundamentally, intrinsically.” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 credit cycle Marks traces private credit's origins to 2011 when regulated banks withdrew from buyout lending and non-bank l https://minutesof.com/q/1ea58014-b86c-4cc5-8882-91e8618fb80c/ https://minutesof.com/q/1ea58014-b86c-4cc5-8882-91e8618fb80c/ “in 2011, when the banks chastened and regulated because of the global financial crisis, pulled back from lending for buyouts, so called non bank lenders stepped in and started to engage in direct lending, lending for mid sized buyouts.” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 credit cycle Marks notes worst loans are made in best times, citing seventeen years of good times since March 2009 bottom. https://minutesof.com/q/cb1e3b8c-b2fe-4c84-8896-aee74e2c55d9/ https://minutesof.com/q/cb1e3b8c-b2fe-4c84-8896-aee74e2c55d9/ “one of the long standing sayings in the banking business is that the worst of loans are made in the best of times, and it's for this reason.” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 credit cycle Marks argues markets have enjoyed seventeen years without a truly tough period since March 2009, despite brief https://minutesof.com/q/84fdeda8-5478-4d7c-9e06-e447dc253ef8/ https://minutesof.com/q/84fdeda8-5478-4d7c-9e06-e447dc253ef8/ “the stock market bottomed March 6, I think it was, of 2009, seventeen years ago, this month, and there hasn't really been a tough time in the financial market since then.” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 credit cycle Marks notes the global financial crisis produced only one year of elevated defaults instead of the normal two https://minutesof.com/q/aaf02ed8-7b3e-4d61-994d-eff0b2726855/ https://minutesof.com/q/aaf02ed8-7b3e-4d61-994d-eff0b2726855/ “we've had seventeen years of low defaults, and the actions of the Fed made the global financial crisis, which was probably the most destructive environment I've ever lived through, have only one year of elevated defaults on high yield bonds rather than the normal two.” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 credit cycle Marks notes the global financial crisis had only one year of elevated high yield defaults versus the normal tw https://minutesof.com/q/0435e107-124a-43c6-9978-d5b620c03004/ https://minutesof.com/q/0435e107-124a-43c6-9978-d5b620c03004/ “the global financial crisis, which was probably the most destructive environment I've ever lived through, have only one year of elevated defaults on high yield bonds rather than the normal two.” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 credit cycle Marks observes yield spreads at low end of range indicate no fear or compensation for elevated defaults. https://minutesof.com/q/bb39dc1f-9a0a-4eb8-9099-a3eb2a83cea1/ https://minutesof.com/q/bb39dc1f-9a0a-4eb8-9099-a3eb2a83cea1/ “if the yield spreads are at the low end of normal range, you would have to say that the fear of elevated defaults is not present and compensation for an elevated default rate is not available.” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 credit cycle Marks admits his risk aversion was costly since 1980 when optimism consistently paid off. https://minutesof.com/q/b7d6e3a2-4375-4b25-99eb-b181055d64bb/ https://minutesof.com/q/b7d6e3a2-4375-4b25-99eb-b181055d64bb/ “And given the, if you think about it, from 1980 when the inflation was solved, essentially to date, generally speaking, the more optimistic you were, the more money you made.” — Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 credit cycle Marks describes personal borrowing rates falling from 22.25% in 1980 to 2.25% in 2020. https://minutesof.com/q/2310ec08-7a31-49b5-a44b-ce949ccf4162/ https://minutesof.com/q/2310ec08-7a31-49b5-a44b-ce949ccf4162/ “And forty years later in 2020, I was able to borrow at two and a quarter fixed for fifteen years.” — Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 credit cycle Marks's firm deployed $10 billion in fifteen weeks during the financial crisis after earlier caution. https://minutesof.com/q/e7911f6d-2aed-4fd5-b857-a665ebe4fb59/ https://minutesof.com/q/e7911f6d-2aed-4fd5-b857-a665ebe4fb59/ “See, the lead up was that because we were worried in 'five and assets, we liquidated a lot of funds, if we raised funds, we raised only small funds, we increased our selectivity.” — Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 credit cycle Marks says Oaktree had raised $10 billion for distressed debt by September 2008, three times the prior record. https://minutesof.com/q/33eae65e-5e18-40e8-9e5e-ebdd312e8c1f/ https://minutesof.com/q/33eae65e-5e18-40e8-9e5e-ebdd312e8c1f/ “When Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in mid September of o eight, we had raised the biggest distressed debt fund in history by a factor of about three. We had $10,000,000,000 sitting on the shelf.” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 credit cycle Marks says Oaktree had $10 billion ready when Lehman collapsed and most thought the financial world would melt https://minutesof.com/q/1c8287f6-17a1-4ae4-b326-b48a8cb78603/ https://minutesof.com/q/1c8287f6-17a1-4ae4-b326-b48a8cb78603/ “We had $10,000,000,000 sitting on the shelf. Lehman goes under. Most people think the financial world is gonna melt down. Question is whether you spend the money.” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 credit cycle Marks detected excessive risk-taking in 2005-06 by observing low-quality deals getting done easily, signaling https://minutesof.com/q/f56132ef-8542-48e5-8bc4-40f8b262db46/ https://minutesof.com/q/f56132ef-8542-48e5-8bc4-40f8b262db46/ “I'd say, look at this piece of junk that got issued yesterday. There's something wrong. If a deal like this can get done, the world is exercising inadequate prudence.” — My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 credit cycle Marks raised $8 billion in early 2007, took only $3.5 billion, held rest in standby fund. https://minutesof.com/q/fa2e919c-c7b3-45ca-a51d-1c4242abf2ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/fa2e919c-c7b3-45ca-a51d-1c4242abf2ed/ “But we would like to have the remainder of your interest in a standby fund that will implement if the stuff hits the fan.” — My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 credit cycle Marks asserts risk is not a function of asset quality, opposing conventional belief about quality and safety. https://minutesof.com/q/43cc7d46-df91-40df-9627-bc7fbc4f381c/ https://minutesof.com/q/43cc7d46-df91-40df-9627-bc7fbc4f381c/ “One of the most important things for every investor to learn is that risk is not a function of asset quality. This too sounds counterintuitive.” — Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 credit cycle Marks describes Fed funds rate declining from 20% in 1980 to zero forty years later as dominant financial fact https://minutesof.com/q/730c36ab-073e-476d-aee5-323159b07026/ https://minutesof.com/q/730c36ab-073e-476d-aee5-323159b07026/ “Forty years later, the Fed funds rate was zero, and I had a loan outstanding from bank at two and a quarter.” — David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 credit cycle Marks says interest rates fell 20 percentage points from 1980 to 2020, the most important financial event in f https://minutesof.com/q/913ddd48-663c-45a9-bd56-b73c8a328b0c/ https://minutesof.com/q/913ddd48-663c-45a9-bd56-b73c8a328b0c/ “So the decline of interest rates by 20 percentage points over that period was a dominant factor in the financial world.” — David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 credit cycle Marks says the Fed funds rate should exceed inflation to maintain a positive real rate. https://minutesof.com/q/15a739bd-c80b-4168-bcba-38bf5376930b/ https://minutesof.com/q/15a739bd-c80b-4168-bcba-38bf5376930b/ “If inflation's two, then the Fed funds rate should be higher than that so that there's a positive real Fed funds rate.” — David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 credit cycle Marks says few recognize the shift in interest rates as a major change despite his emphasis. https://minutesof.com/q/b2c09802-0842-4bad-8cfc-049ddb997836/ https://minutesof.com/q/b2c09802-0842-4bad-8cfc-049ddb997836/ “Some people come up to me and say, yes. You're right. Interest rates are are low. Nobody has said this is a major change as you say it is.” — David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 credit cycle Marks illustrates how refinancing environment shifted from 800 million at 5% to 500 million at 8%. https://minutesof.com/q/8e20e839-310f-4ca8-91b4-f70f9beea467/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e20e839-310f-4ca8-91b4-f70f9beea467/ “You went to the bank. They said we'll lend you 800,000,000 at 5%. Now the loan is up for renewal. You go in. They say, fine. We'll lend you 500,000,000 at 8%.” — David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 credit cycle Marks says when any company can raise money on any basis, that's a danger signal in the market. https://minutesof.com/q/7057e7f8-abf8-4b22-8214-8ec5cd85b4ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/7057e7f8-abf8-4b22-8214-8ec5cd85b4ed/ “I'd hold up an article from the news, I said, Look at this piece of crap that got issued yesterday. If a company can raise money on this basis, there's something wrong in the market.” — Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 credit cycle Marks says when any company can raise money on any terms, the market has failed its disciplinary function. https://minutesof.com/q/d16386d7-7f26-4144-af21-981c5c9de1f4/ https://minutesof.com/q/d16386d7-7f26-4144-af21-981c5c9de1f4/ “If a company can raise money on this basis, there's something wrong in the market. It's as simple as that, you know?” — Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 credit cycle Marks says Oaktree deployed ten billion dollars in fifteen weeks after Lehman collapsed, averaging 650 million https://minutesof.com/q/1d5a97a9-8c38-4758-b56f-8d0a5a3d92a4/ https://minutesof.com/q/1d5a97a9-8c38-4758-b56f-8d0a5a3d92a4/ “after the global financial crisis, some people thought it represented an existential threat, we swung into action and we were able to invest $650,000,000 a week on average for fifteen weeks between Lehman's September 15 bankruptcy and the end of the year, that's $10,000,000,000” — Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 credit cycle Marks recounts losing 90% buying America's best companies 1968-73 because they were overpriced at 80-90 times https://minutesof.com/q/e18a5334-6b40-466f-8b22-677c4c73c6b8/ https://minutesof.com/q/e18a5334-6b40-466f-8b22-677c4c73c6b8/ “if you bought the bonds of Hewlett Packard, PerkinElmer, Texas Instruments, Merck, Lilly, Xerox, IBM, Kodak, Polaroid, AIG, Coca Cola, and Procter and Gamble, and if you bought them all in 'sixty eight and you held them until 'seventy three, you lost 90% of your money.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 credit cycle Marks describes investing in best companies lost 90% while worst companies made most money. https://minutesof.com/q/74a1fb8f-6f0c-42c4-9425-84094a591b0f/ https://minutesof.com/q/74a1fb8f-6f0c-42c4-9425-84094a591b0f/ “Then you go to the high yield bond business, you invest in the worst companies in America, you make the most money.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 credit cycle Marks explains bonds as fixed promises where all paying bonds deliver identical returns. https://minutesof.com/q/df4778fe-be55-4fb5-ba94-890a2556426e/ https://minutesof.com/q/df4778fe-be55-4fb5-ba94-890a2556426e/ “You give me $100 and I promise to give you 5% interest every year and then give you a bonding back in twenty years. Fixed income, it's called, because all the events are fixed.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 credit cycle Marks explains bonds as fixed contracts where all returns are identical if promises are kept. https://minutesof.com/q/c91fbe50-a600-40de-87a4-d8535c968e58/ https://minutesof.com/q/c91fbe50-a600-40de-87a4-d8535c968e58/ “Fixed income, it's called, because all the events are fixed. The contract is fixed. The return is fixed, assuming the promise is kept.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 credit cycle Marks launched the first distressed debt fund in 1988, investing in bonds already in default. https://minutesof.com/q/8896cf44-e1db-448c-b8ff-4eee80c8376b/ https://minutesof.com/q/8896cf44-e1db-448c-b8ff-4eee80c8376b/ “in 'eighty eight, we brought out the first distressed debt fund. Now we're not investing in companies that have a risk of default.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 credit cycle Marks launched the first distressed debt fund in 1988, investing in bonds of bankrupt or near-bankrupt compani https://minutesof.com/q/0870e3fd-1498-4a1b-8363-70b5e5db12b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/0870e3fd-1498-4a1b-8363-70b5e5db12b1/ “we brought out the first distressed debt fund. Now we're not investing in companies that have a risk of default. We're investing in bonds that are either in default or sure to be.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 credit cycle Marks reports Oaktree made 23% annually for 28 years in distressed debt without leverage. https://minutesof.com/q/f7aecf44-6e27-4509-a84e-893d084a346c/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7aecf44-6e27-4509-a84e-893d084a346c/ “And we've made about 23% a year for twenty eight years investing in distressed debt before fees without any leverage. So that's pretty astronomical. Why?” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 credit cycle Marks reports 23% annual returns for 28 years in distressed debt without leverage by buying below intrinsic va https://minutesof.com/q/ced6776e-1275-4530-ab46-eeb4fa60c308/ https://minutesof.com/q/ced6776e-1275-4530-ab46-eeb4fa60c308/ “we've made about 23% a year for twenty eight years investing in distressed debt before fees without any leverage. So that's pretty astronomical. Why?” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 credit cycle