The Minutes of Howard Marks on cycles https://minutesof.com/howard-marks/on/cycles/ Everything Howard Marks has said on cycles: 8 verbatim quotes between January 2019 and May 2026, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording it came… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:22:27 +0000 Marks explains that while underlying progress is gradual, prices fluctuate wildly around trend lines due to ps https://minutesof.com/q/7ea46ef1-d124-4d2c-b76c-4e15e8785e86/ https://minutesof.com/q/7ea46ef1-d124-4d2c-b76c-4e15e8785e86/ “So the point is that that whereas, the underlying thing progresses gradually, the price fluctuates wildly around that trend line, and the main reason is, the fluctuation of psychology.” — Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 cycles Marks reframes cycles not as ups and downs but as excesses and corrections around a trend line. https://minutesof.com/q/8018c4cf-55b2-4c56-895e-c62c37db5633/ https://minutesof.com/q/8018c4cf-55b2-4c56-895e-c62c37db5633/ “So rather than thinking of cycles as ups and downs, which I think most people do, think of them as excesses and corrections, excesses and corrections. Fluctuations around the trend line.” — Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 cycles Marks reframes economic cycles as excesses and corrections around trend lines rather than simple ups and downs https://minutesof.com/q/37841e74-af02-4eba-8329-112c7643ae0a/ https://minutesof.com/q/37841e74-af02-4eba-8329-112c7643ae0a/ “So rather than thinking of cycles as ups and downs, which I think most people do, think of them as excesses and corrections, excesses and corrections.” — Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 cycles Marks observes S&P returns almost never fall between eight and twelve percent despite ten percent average. https://minutesof.com/q/f5e7c1a3-da76-4c75-8600-c8b4c140e3b5/ https://minutesof.com/q/f5e7c1a3-da76-4c75-8600-c8b4c140e3b5/ “And not only is that an interesting phenomenon to think about, but even more so, the fact that the return on the S and P, which averages 10, is almost never between eight and twelve.” — Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 cycles Marks says investor psychology swings from flawless to hopeless while reality fluctuates more moderately. https://minutesof.com/q/a4009199-2a44-4e39-87b6-bd1f93442af6/ https://minutesof.com/q/a4009199-2a44-4e39-87b6-bd1f93442af6/ “in real life things fluctuate between pretty good and not so hot but in the minds of investors, they go from flawless to hopeless.” — The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 cycles Marks defines market cycles as excesses and corrections rather than simple ups and downs. https://minutesof.com/q/d18bdee4-eb9b-478a-a5d2-1c295994fa90/ https://minutesof.com/q/d18bdee4-eb9b-478a-a5d2-1c295994fa90/ “The way to think of of a pattern of of cycle is excesses and corrections. So so for example, let's look here. What's happening here?” — The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 cycles Marks identifies it's different this time as the four worst words in the world for investors. https://minutesof.com/q/d158d96f-5cea-429f-bdea-da9708393ef7/ https://minutesof.com/q/d158d96f-5cea-429f-bdea-da9708393ef7/ “If you say to them, you know, well that happened twenty and forty years ago and it ended badly, what they say is they use the four worst words in the world.” — Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 cycles Marks identifies too much money chasing too few deals as the seven worst words in investing. https://minutesof.com/q/24cf4c4c-1739-4e98-aba9-4b4c1ed9993c/ https://minutesof.com/q/24cf4c4c-1739-4e98-aba9-4b4c1ed9993c/ “Now remember, the four worst words in the world were, it's different this time, the seven worst words in the world are too much money chasing too few deals.” — Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 cycles