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    <title>The Minutes of Howard Marks on forecasting</title>
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    <description>Everything Howard Marks has said on forecasting: 4 verbatim quotes between February 2024 and August 2026, each with a timestamp and a link to the…</description>
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      <title>Marks cites Dimson saying the future is a probability distribution, not a single outcome that can be predicted</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/ef1891a8-885c-4b64-ac23-be7decfb8638/</link>
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      <description>“The future is not a set single thing that if you&#x27;re smart enough, you can figure it out what it&#x27;s going to be and it&#x27;s going to materialize and make you right.” — The Investor’s Podcast</description>
      <pubDate>Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>forecasting</category>
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      <title>Marks argues the future is a probability distribution of possibilities, not a single predictable outcome.</title>
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      <description>“It&#x27;s a probability distribution. It&#x27;s a range of possibilities in each thing, whether it&#x27;s GDP growth next year or inflation next year, or who&#x27;s going to win the next election,” — The Investor’s Podcast</description>
      <pubDate>Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>forecasting</category>
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      <title>Marks cites JPMorgan chart showing negative correlation between S&amp;P 500 PE ratios and subsequent ten-year retu</title>
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      <description>“And it was a negative correlation, which means the higher the PE ratio you pay, the lower the return you should expect.” — My First Million</description>
      <pubDate>Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>forecasting</category>
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      <title>Marks criticizes daily market commentary writers who predict the future and are only right half the time on av</title>
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      <description>“And if if they ever kept a scorecard on the things that they wrote about what&#x27;s gonna happen tomorrow, they would see that on average they get it right half the time” — David Perell</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 21 Feb 2024 13:20:30 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>forecasting</category>
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