https://minutesof.com/howard-marks/on/market-psychology/ Everything Howard Marks has said on market psychology: 92 verbatim quotes between March 2015 and June 2026, each with a timestamp and a link to the… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:22:26 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/425b3576-a3a7-4feb-8132-551ef9fb9c21/ https://minutesof.com/q/425b3576-a3a7-4feb-8132-551ef9fb9c21/ “I'll say since 10/01/2022, which is a special date for a reason, it's when the Fed turned more dovish.” — Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/d8f33f76-07e0-4c1d-a3ac-8e1005782920/ https://minutesof.com/q/d8f33f76-07e0-4c1d-a3ac-8e1005782920/ “And part of that means with everything you do, some part of your body has to be saying, yes, but how do we prepare for less optimistic times?” — Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/5e1ab57a-e8ac-44b2-8df5-2012f497fc1e/ https://minutesof.com/q/5e1ab57a-e8ac-44b2-8df5-2012f497fc1e/ “If I don't cut the price of this loan, my competitor will make the loan, and I'll have to look on. So these this is what happens.” — Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/9aa3f218-4fb9-4cb6-8cb2-3716efb950dd/ https://minutesof.com/q/9aa3f218-4fb9-4cb6-8cb2-3716efb950dd/ “It I I think there's an expectation. And and, you know, investors tend to paint things with the broad brush and not make fine distinctions.” — Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/80b5165b-79f7-4866-8977-fdb412e9eb68/ https://minutesof.com/q/80b5165b-79f7-4866-8977-fdb412e9eb68/ “I think today, if you could if you could ascertain people's expectations, I personally think that the that the level of worry and the universality of worry with regard to software is probably excessive.” — Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/f0d15cf7-38a0-4bd3-9ba6-3d1f55b28cfa/ https://minutesof.com/q/f0d15cf7-38a0-4bd3-9ba6-3d1f55b28cfa/ “And, you know, those things showed the the market to be, I used the expression a year ago, lofty but not nutty.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/968df78b-59e4-49d6-88e1-b52fc92cab54/ https://minutesof.com/q/968df78b-59e4-49d6-88e1-b52fc92cab54/ “You know, the the the non Shiller PE ratio is about 23 or so today. The eighty year average is 16. So we're roughly 50% higher today. But in 2000, I think it was 32.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/f7291038-b263-4b1a-ac70-0f73234e8f92/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7291038-b263-4b1a-ac70-0f73234e8f92/ “To make money in a salutary investment environment, you can do it on the basis of good judgment and hard work and skill, or you can do it on aggressiveness and getting lucky.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/7ea46ef1-d124-4d2c-b76c-4e15e8785e86/ https://minutesof.com/q/7ea46ef1-d124-4d2c-b76c-4e15e8785e86/ “So the point is that that whereas, the underlying thing progresses gradually, the price fluctuates wildly around that trend line, and the main reason is, the fluctuation of psychology.” — Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/5b6ca29b-f7be-4e69-b717-8c27d99731c7/ https://minutesof.com/q/5b6ca29b-f7be-4e69-b717-8c27d99731c7/ “The scariest thing in the world, the riskiest thing in the world is the belief there's no risk.” — Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/f5e7c1a3-da76-4c75-8600-c8b4c140e3b5/ https://minutesof.com/q/f5e7c1a3-da76-4c75-8600-c8b4c140e3b5/ “And not only is that an interesting phenomenon to think about, but even more so, the fact that the return on the S and P, which averages 10, is almost never between eight and twelve.” — Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/d9b7f080-7d66-4f47-a8d2-618d9a050692/ https://minutesof.com/q/d9b7f080-7d66-4f47-a8d2-618d9a050692/ “if you bought those stocks the day I got to work in September of 'sixty nine, if you held them tenaciously for five years, you lost about 95% of your money.” — Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/3f63fbc7-d33d-402e-86ce-eb0e9aacf9b5/ https://minutesof.com/q/3f63fbc7-d33d-402e-86ce-eb0e9aacf9b5/ “And there was a guy named Wally Deemer, was an old time trader, who had some great quotes and he turned them into” — Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/60a4741c-52ab-4076-b190-1c64f0757d6c/ https://minutesof.com/q/60a4741c-52ab-4076-b190-1c64f0757d6c/ “Because you have to be optimistic to be an investor. What is investing? You take your money, you give it to somebody else in the hope you'll get back more later.” — Wharton School Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:17:40 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/48e6a01a-4a22-4e26-8757-fd112b3f68f2/ https://minutesof.com/q/48e6a01a-4a22-4e26-8757-fd112b3f68f2/ “Am I supposed to value these things at what they're worth? What I could sell them for? What I could sell half for?” — CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e2f186c1-24f1-4804-aff1-69558971cbbc/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2f186c1-24f1-4804-aff1-69558971cbbc/ “The pessimist the optimists had basically been winning for the last, I think now it's, forty three months.” — CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/02b95898-ae5b-4520-bcc9-479ea6d3fbec/ https://minutesof.com/q/02b95898-ae5b-4520-bcc9-479ea6d3fbec/ “I happen to believe that the Mag seven, most of or all of them are the best companies I've ever seen.” — CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/b2a982f7-b729-44b0-8f81-91eec52c6a33/ https://minutesof.com/q/b2a982f7-b729-44b0-8f81-91eec52c6a33/ “When I was a kid and came into this business in '69, the Nifty Fifty were selling at PE ratios between sixty and ninety. So today's Mag seven in the thirties seem reasonable.” — CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/1f7d4144-3e24-4d24-a1ad-f7ca508e5b61/ https://minutesof.com/q/1f7d4144-3e24-4d24-a1ad-f7ca508e5b61/ “And and the government, in theory, can make up the paycheck, but they can't make up the sense of purpose and the reason to get out of bed and the structure for your day.” — CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/7a5c456a-5c5e-4839-875f-cd1fc7e7c69c/ https://minutesof.com/q/7a5c456a-5c5e-4839-875f-cd1fc7e7c69c/ “The the biggest I thought I've spent a lot of time thinking about the biggest mistake that investors make. It is the belief that something can go up more than something else forever.” — CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/c326d0c2-1446-4732-a7b1-fd08e13e9489/ https://minutesof.com/q/c326d0c2-1446-4732-a7b1-fd08e13e9489/ “And I would say, let's talk about credit. Why do you skip all the way from zero to private credit, glossing over public credit,” — Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/a0ab166c-bf59-49e3-be8d-7dc2a71d8fb1/ https://minutesof.com/q/a0ab166c-bf59-49e3-be8d-7dc2a71d8fb1/ “And if you bought the stocks the day I got to work in '69 and you held them for five years, the greatest companies in America, you lost about 95% of your money.” — Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/4416c4a2-8868-4190-8f4b-779aa2dcbce0/ https://minutesof.com/q/4416c4a2-8868-4190-8f4b-779aa2dcbce0/ “But the lesson I learned from my experience with the nifty 50 in '69 was that it's not what you buy, it's what you pay that matters.” — Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/cb1e3b8c-b2fe-4c84-8896-aee74e2c55d9/ https://minutesof.com/q/cb1e3b8c-b2fe-4c84-8896-aee74e2c55d9/ “one of the long standing sayings in the banking business is that the worst of loans are made in the best of times, and it's for this reason.” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/eaa3ce09-3f74-4e7e-ac01-9176ea607804/ https://minutesof.com/q/eaa3ce09-3f74-4e7e-ac01-9176ea607804/ “since roughly 09/30/2022, I would venture that the S and P has doubled. I mean, company values haven't doubled, intrinsic values, but prices have doubled, so it's been a great time,” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/18effe83-7b96-418d-8bdb-31a5eeb58aca/ https://minutesof.com/q/18effe83-7b96-418d-8bdb-31a5eeb58aca/ “I mean, company values haven't doubled, intrinsic values, but prices have doubled, so it's been a great time, and great times encourage the desire to put money to work and discourage analysis,” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/bb39dc1f-9a0a-4eb8-9099-a3eb2a83cea1/ https://minutesof.com/q/bb39dc1f-9a0a-4eb8-9099-a3eb2a83cea1/ “if the yield spreads are at the low end of normal range, you would have to say that the fear of elevated defaults is not present and compensation for an elevated default rate is not available.” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/68ecbd03-4a52-4aee-bc52-f45173c9d441/ https://minutesof.com/q/68ecbd03-4a52-4aee-bc52-f45173c9d441/ “I think you would have to say, optimism, not pessimism, credulousness, not skepticism, are in the ascendancy today, and when optimism and credulousness are in the ascendancy, it gets hard to make return investments that will produce what we call excess returns,” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/7d35714b-4b54-432f-af75-8f9f520b0e16/ https://minutesof.com/q/7d35714b-4b54-432f-af75-8f9f520b0e16/ “These were the 50 best and fastest growing companies in America, where nothing could go wrong and there was no price too high.” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/5b4113c2-c120-4fd3-b3f4-6387d3b071ad/ https://minutesof.com/q/5b4113c2-c120-4fd3-b3f4-6387d3b071ad/ “So if you bought the stocks the day I got there, I think it was 09/22/1969, if I'm not mistaken, and if you held them tenaciously for five years, the greatest company is America, you lost about 95% of your money.” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/90dcd68e-dc0f-4973-aebd-6bdcf011bb17/ https://minutesof.com/q/90dcd68e-dc0f-4973-aebd-6bdcf011bb17/ “one of my concerns is that AI moves faster than the ability of society to adjust to it. And that and that is a formula for disruption.” — CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/11062a4c-cd6d-4469-ba9c-a0712af200bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/11062a4c-cd6d-4469-ba9c-a0712af200bc/ “I think it was Walter Cronkite who said if you're not confused, you don't know what's going on. I would say if you think you know what's gonna happen,” — CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/eb100222-a82f-46c9-ac2b-18f80d5dc74c/ https://minutesof.com/q/eb100222-a82f-46c9-ac2b-18f80d5dc74c/ “We're at the we're in the first inning of a very long unpredictable game. We don't know what the rules are or or have any idea how many innings there are” — CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/397ea8d6-7232-401b-b0fa-bc2aa1e3b97d/ https://minutesof.com/q/397ea8d6-7232-401b-b0fa-bc2aa1e3b97d/ “And so that was very informative and it's very desirable to learn your lessons early and also preferable to learn your lessons when there's not a lot of money at stake, which I did.” — Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/b7d6e3a2-4375-4b25-99eb-b181055d64bb/ https://minutesof.com/q/b7d6e3a2-4375-4b25-99eb-b181055d64bb/ “And given the, if you think about it, from 1980 when the inflation was solved, essentially to date, generally speaking, the more optimistic you were, the more money you made.” — Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/427e10dc-a1fc-4740-8469-fb8202f73a6d/ https://minutesof.com/q/427e10dc-a1fc-4740-8469-fb8202f73a6d/ “Risk, in my opinion, and my view has evolved, risk is the probability negative outcome, of an undesirable outcome.” — Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e1076922-0e8c-41c6-9c98-b4019d166124/ https://minutesof.com/q/e1076922-0e8c-41c6-9c98-b4019d166124/ “Risk, in my opinion, and my view has evolved, risk is the probability negative outcome, of an undesirable outcome. It is not the volatility of the stream.” — Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/0c450801-47cb-4b14-8135-91dd3524a5a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c450801-47cb-4b14-8135-91dd3524a5a3/ “If a risky asset can be counted on to have a high return, then it's not risky. So it can't be true. It's incorrect on its face.” — Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/fe864198-3445-4007-a68d-7a65e10e7d0b/ https://minutesof.com/q/fe864198-3445-4007-a68d-7a65e10e7d0b/ “What the relationship means is that an asset that appears to be risky has to appear to offer a high return or else nobody will buy it.” — Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/4dc34633-e51e-4654-95ca-6745ea363015/ https://minutesof.com/q/4dc34633-e51e-4654-95ca-6745ea363015/ “The S and P 500 stock index has been around for about a century. There have been ninety seven or ninety eight three year periods by definition.” — Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/86b11b15-1235-48db-9723-c3ed41753f40/ https://minutesof.com/q/86b11b15-1235-48db-9723-c3ed41753f40/ “And I say in the memo, for example, that some woman left OpenAI, started a company called Thinking Machine Labs, went out to raise money, and she said this company is going to engage in AI, but I can't tell you what we're going to do. It's a secret. And people gave her $2,000,000,000 for a sixth of the company.” — Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/54f688b6-7c78-4802-9381-297fb97302ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/54f688b6-7c78-4802-9381-297fb97302ed/ “The period, twenty three four five is for the S and P 500 is, I think, the seventh best three year period out of the last 100. Seventh out of a 100.” — Brookfield Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:35:50 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/6ede688f-5cb5-4f3d-8846-8e3a62417ff7/ https://minutesof.com/q/6ede688f-5cb5-4f3d-8846-8e3a62417ff7/ “You're never going to have a bubble in paper stocks or timber stocks. It's too prosaic. People can say, well, we can tell how many houses you're going to build.” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/5c2356ed-97c5-4d19-97e2-1320523450df/ https://minutesof.com/q/5c2356ed-97c5-4d19-97e2-1320523450df/ “And the answer turns out to be that most investors, shoot for the stars and occasionally shoot themselves in the foot and wreck their record.” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e91960f1-e867-4261-b7d8-8800785e0242/ https://minutesof.com/q/e91960f1-e867-4261-b7d8-8800785e0242/ “if you can produce The US GDP and eliminate half the entry level jobs, it could be more profitable or certainly more productive. But the question is, will it be more profitable?” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/ee65997d-6da4-4214-80df-e672fed3c154/ https://minutesof.com/q/ee65997d-6da4-4214-80df-e672fed3c154/ “Buffett says, the less prudence with which others conduct our affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own affairs.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/549d9dfd-77f6-4067-a4dd-5494f8c0cd86/ https://minutesof.com/q/549d9dfd-77f6-4067-a4dd-5494f8c0cd86/ “And the Fed manipulations are a form of price controls. You know, they control the price of money. And if Fed puts money artificially cheap, then it induces behavior like risk taking.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/a3fcdc62-7fcb-41b8-8562-3e86fa218662/ https://minutesof.com/q/a3fcdc62-7fcb-41b8-8562-3e86fa218662/ “And the Fed manipulations are a form of price controls. You know, they control the price of money.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e0d5eb77-7408-42e2-bfb4-1dfa461b1e6d/ https://minutesof.com/q/e0d5eb77-7408-42e2-bfb4-1dfa461b1e6d/ “And if Fed puts money artificially cheap, then it induces behavior like risk taking. It forces people into riskier activities because the returns on safe activities are so low.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/d7215c0b-bbe4-4d4f-abf8-8d4abfb834e5/ https://minutesof.com/q/d7215c0b-bbe4-4d4f-abf8-8d4abfb834e5/ “To me, the main ingredient in bubbles is psychological excess. There's no such thing as a price too high.” — CNBC Television Mon, 13 Oct 2025 16:15:11 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/6651d07a-729f-413a-8676-3c9a00e9851a/ https://minutesof.com/q/6651d07a-729f-413a-8676-3c9a00e9851a/ “One of the biggest mistakes you can make in life, but especially in investing, is to assume that you're smart and everybody else is dumb.” — The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/a7b54a13-5ce4-4332-b52f-b9e726c373e0/ https://minutesof.com/q/a7b54a13-5ce4-4332-b52f-b9e726c373e0/ “I can have more of the things that go up a lot than you do or less of the things that go down a lot than you do.” — The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/a4009199-2a44-4e39-87b6-bd1f93442af6/ https://minutesof.com/q/a4009199-2a44-4e39-87b6-bd1f93442af6/ “in real life things fluctuate between pretty good and not so hot but in the minds of investors, they go from flawless to hopeless.” — The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/937e8e7b-afa5-4c75-b1a2-f5c776934a01/ https://minutesof.com/q/937e8e7b-afa5-4c75-b1a2-f5c776934a01/ “Can you imagine the world today without the internet? And yet I imagine that 99% of the internet stocks that came out are worthless today.” — The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/514dfc4a-c96f-43fe-9093-1cc71ada73ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/514dfc4a-c96f-43fe-9093-1cc71ada73ed/ “And it showed that historically, you bought the S and P when the PE ratio was 23, in every case, there were no exceptions.” — My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/ff7424d8-1a19-4321-b1c0-f2bfcbb5edd1/ https://minutesof.com/q/ff7424d8-1a19-4321-b1c0-f2bfcbb5edd1/ “The only thing I'm sure of is if you zig when they zig, you're not gonna outperform.” — My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/f56132ef-8542-48e5-8bc4-40f8b262db46/ https://minutesof.com/q/f56132ef-8542-48e5-8bc4-40f8b262db46/ “I'd say, look at this piece of junk that got issued yesterday. There's something wrong. If a deal like this can get done, the world is exercising inadequate prudence.” — My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/ee5cc03b-2444-4a73-a5db-36ccc65c9614/ https://minutesof.com/q/ee5cc03b-2444-4a73-a5db-36ccc65c9614/ “The academics developing investment theory, largely at the University of Chicago in the early sixties, just a couple years before I got there, adopted volatility as their measure of risk.” — Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/db26f4f5-9fbf-46f2-99a3-0dd13ef42476/ https://minutesof.com/q/db26f4f5-9fbf-46f2-99a3-0dd13ef42476/ “So if risk is not volatility, then what is it? And in my opinion, and in the real world sense, risk is the probability of loss.” — Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e0547f6c-0d6d-4908-a974-b5f8f95d6f86/ https://minutesof.com/q/e0547f6c-0d6d-4908-a974-b5f8f95d6f86/ “The fact that you experienced a downward fluctuation might have been uncomfortable for a little while. But by the time the new high is achieved, you're you're you're back to to your cost and more.” — Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/20951606-e2c1-4f22-862d-030410142379/ https://minutesof.com/q/20951606-e2c1-4f22-862d-030410142379/ “My friend Rick Kane once said that 96% of financial history has occurred within two standard deviations, but everything interesting has happened outside of two standard deviations.” — Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/ebcba1d0-4b49-4a5b-9f9f-7380c9e7d67c/ https://minutesof.com/q/ebcba1d0-4b49-4a5b-9f9f-7380c9e7d67c/ “My conclusion was it's not what you buy, it's what you pay. And investment success doesn't come from buying good things, but from buying things well.” — Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/754fd957-0ee5-4297-a1b8-1a38da695b04/ https://minutesof.com/q/754fd957-0ee5-4297-a1b8-1a38da695b04/ “There are no assets that are so good that they can't become overpriced and dangerous. There are very few assets that are so bad that they can't be cheap enough to be attractive as investments.” — Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/d40ac94d-a8ef-4464-b657-dbcda625afe2/ https://minutesof.com/q/d40ac94d-a8ef-4464-b657-dbcda625afe2/ “Very simply, if it were true that riskier assets produce higher returns, then they wouldn't be riskier, would they? So that can't be the right explanation.” — Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e7ad3825-8b33-4a35-aab2-c51ae95a5ff4/ https://minutesof.com/q/e7ad3825-8b33-4a35-aab2-c51ae95a5ff4/ “What the upward sloping line, the positive correlation, means is that investments that are perceived as being risky have to be perceived as offering higher returns to induce people to make those investments.” — Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/489e3398-d64d-4c35-967c-04dab6427163/ https://minutesof.com/q/489e3398-d64d-4c35-967c-04dab6427163/ “I believe imprecise qualitative expert opinion about the probability of loss is far more useful than precise but largely irrelevant numbers concerning past and projected volatility.” — Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/4213e51c-a8b5-4a95-b80f-c7212a015b02/ https://minutesof.com/q/4213e51c-a8b5-4a95-b80f-c7212a015b02/ “I think the right model for thinking about whether we need risk control isn't American football, it's soccer. In American football, the team with the ball has the offense on the field.” — Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/b38b9121-d99a-424e-835d-2a3de26488c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/b38b9121-d99a-424e-835d-2a3de26488c6/ “And if if they ever kept a scorecard on the things that they wrote about what's gonna happen tomorrow, they would see that on average they get it right half the time” — David Perell Wed, 21 Feb 2024 13:20:30 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/b2c09802-0842-4bad-8cfc-049ddb997836/ https://minutesof.com/q/b2c09802-0842-4bad-8cfc-049ddb997836/ “Some people come up to me and say, yes. You're right. Interest rates are are low. Nobody has said this is a major change as you say it is.” — David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/f2f4d520-7ae0-42a3-a9f8-8bf341e8e757/ https://minutesof.com/q/f2f4d520-7ae0-42a3-a9f8-8bf341e8e757/ “it's not just whether the event was positive, it's how people reacted to the event that determines the impact on the security prices.” — David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/7057e7f8-abf8-4b22-8214-8ec5cd85b4ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/7057e7f8-abf8-4b22-8214-8ec5cd85b4ed/ “I'd hold up an article from the news, I said, Look at this piece of crap that got issued yesterday. If a company can raise money on this basis, there's something wrong in the market.” — Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/789539a4-30c2-45f4-b54f-4e486f74c772/ https://minutesof.com/q/789539a4-30c2-45f4-b54f-4e486f74c772/ “Either the financial system is going to melt down or it's not. If it melts down, it doesn't matter whether we bought or not, because it's, you know, it's game over for everything.” — Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/5686fbcc-3d21-4370-9c6e-24f8c45f1554/ https://minutesof.com/q/5686fbcc-3d21-4370-9c6e-24f8c45f1554/ “And if it were true that every overpriced markets reverts and becomes fairly priced, then we would never get a bubble because they would stop going up here.” — Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/40d83787-9223-4915-8b29-888b8ceefe5a/ https://minutesof.com/q/40d83787-9223-4915-8b29-888b8ceefe5a/ “successful investing requires the adoption of uncomfortably idiosyncratic positions. Everybody has the same influences, everybody thinks pretty much the same,” — Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/af8caea7-2f48-42d7-9544-2de012202e2f/ https://minutesof.com/q/af8caea7-2f48-42d7-9544-2de012202e2f/ “Everybody has the same influences, everybody thinks pretty much the same, everybody anoints the same winners and criticizes the same losers, and obviously tomorrow's winners are usually found on the pile of today's losers,” — Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e5d1a12a-ad5c-4c65-a05c-f10112a90a29/ https://minutesof.com/q/e5d1a12a-ad5c-4c65-a05c-f10112a90a29/ “I believe that achieving an average return with below average risk is an equally significant accomplish, but easily overlooked because only the risk is evident, only the return is evident.” — Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/42eb0c6d-a03c-40a8-bbba-8934082a4882/ https://minutesof.com/q/42eb0c6d-a03c-40a8-bbba-8934082a4882/ “Even when it's over, you can't tell. Was that a safe investment that it was sure to produce a double? Or was it a risky investment where you got lucky?” — Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e2a1de51-8e0e-49c5-8e8f-70a83aa5c263/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2a1de51-8e0e-49c5-8e8f-70a83aa5c263/ “I believe that the riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there's no risk.” — Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/2ffb4237-944a-4551-b123-a6446d6da144/ https://minutesof.com/q/2ffb4237-944a-4551-b123-a6446d6da144/ “the riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there's no risk. Because when police when people believe there's no risk, they act in very risky ways, which makes the world a risky place.” — Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/c23e0792-59bc-4c9f-9390-7324d17636cf/ https://minutesof.com/q/c23e0792-59bc-4c9f-9390-7324d17636cf/ “I think that if you want to exist in the investment world and you want to, you can just buy and hold good things if you want to take that approach, But if you want to improve upon that, I think it's very important to understand the ebb and flow of psychology and act accordingly.” — Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/141db8c3-58fe-4d28-880c-52e84612ca27/ https://minutesof.com/q/141db8c3-58fe-4d28-880c-52e84612ca27/ “you don't need conservatism, caution, risk control, discipline, patience or selectivity. You need money and the nerve to spend it.” — Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/24cf4c4c-1739-4e98-aba9-4b4c1ed9993c/ https://minutesof.com/q/24cf4c4c-1739-4e98-aba9-4b4c1ed9993c/ “Now remember, the four worst words in the world were, it's different this time, the seven worst words in the world are too much money chasing too few deals.” — Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/850c3776-7946-4dc4-a764-6a99f40dab95/ https://minutesof.com/q/850c3776-7946-4dc4-a764-6a99f40dab95/ “you can't tell from an outcome whether a decision was good or bad. It's very important. Most people don't understand this. Totally counterintuitive.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/a04ecac2-80aa-482e-b894-63542718e09a/ https://minutesof.com/q/a04ecac2-80aa-482e-b894-63542718e09a/ “good decisions fail to work all the time. Bad decisions work all the time. The investment business is full of people who are, quote, right for the wrong reason.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/6e71b30e-a021-477d-b97a-c98b20dbe242/ https://minutesof.com/q/6e71b30e-a021-477d-b97a-c98b20dbe242/ “you should not act as if the things that should happen are the things that will happen. Again, in the world of the physical sciences, you can probably bet that that's true.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/9735f2b6-6ebe-47de-840d-e5e4a7e25b7c/ https://minutesof.com/q/9735f2b6-6ebe-47de-840d-e5e4a7e25b7c/ “There's a professor at the London Business School who put it succinctly. He said risk means more things can happen than will happen. And again, this is profound in my opinion.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/37ded17b-44f8-411e-bfa2-a56aa9c591d3/ https://minutesof.com/q/37ded17b-44f8-411e-bfa2-a56aa9c591d3/ “risk means more things can happen than will happen. And again, this is profound in my opinion. In the economic world, people generally make their decisions based on something called expected value,” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/54c9662a-8ca0-4920-9d34-578a7f93a970/ https://minutesof.com/q/54c9662a-8ca0-4920-9d34-578a7f93a970/ “So if you buy a high quality asset and I say in the book, there's a guy on the radio when I lived in LA,” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/a2b1e9db-0285-436e-879e-ef420fde0680/ https://minutesof.com/q/a2b1e9db-0285-436e-879e-ef420fde0680/ “if you bought the bonds of Hewlett Packard, PerkinElmer, Texas Instruments, Merck, Lilly, Xerox, IBM, Kodak, Polaroid, AIG, Coca Cola, and Procter and Gamble, and if you bought them all in 'sixty eight and you held them until 'seventy three, you lost 90% of your money. Why? Because they were overpriced.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e18a5334-6b40-466f-8b22-677c4c73c6b8/ https://minutesof.com/q/e18a5334-6b40-466f-8b22-677c4c73c6b8/ “if you bought the bonds of Hewlett Packard, PerkinElmer, Texas Instruments, Merck, Lilly, Xerox, IBM, Kodak, Polaroid, AIG, Coca Cola, and Procter and Gamble, and if you bought them all in 'sixty eight and you held them until 'seventy three, you lost 90% of your money.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/74a1fb8f-6f0c-42c4-9425-84094a591b0f/ https://minutesof.com/q/74a1fb8f-6f0c-42c4-9425-84094a591b0f/ “Then you go to the high yield bond business, you invest in the worst companies in America, you make the most money.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/2b265d1b-4c51-4173-843d-3bb42879bdc9/ https://minutesof.com/q/2b265d1b-4c51-4173-843d-3bb42879bdc9/ “What percentile do you think that fund was in for the whole fourteen years? Four. Four. And if you think about it, it's really almost mysterious. Why the fourth, not the thirty seventh?” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology