The Minutes of Howard Marks on private credit https://minutesof.com/howard-marks/on/private-credit/ Everything Howard Marks has said on private credit: 20 verbatim quotes between March 2015 and June 2026, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:22:26 +0000 Marks reports roughly 700 direct lending managers now manage $1.7 trillion in a favorable economy that made ma https://minutesof.com/q/c99a0efe-5954-4142-9655-3a3ce8ede630/ https://minutesof.com/q/c99a0efe-5954-4142-9655-3a3ce8ede630/ “So the the the And the availability of that $1,700,000,000,000 put a lot of people into business and made a lot of people extremely successful along with a very favorable economy” — Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 private credit Marks notes only 3% of 700 direct lending managers existed before the financial crisis, questioning their abil https://minutesof.com/q/d490221d-39ea-4fa6-b509-074f7a6ce4d3/ https://minutesof.com/q/d490221d-39ea-4fa6-b509-074f7a6ce4d3/ “I'm told that of the 700, roughly 3% were in business before the global financial crisis. So we don't know how many of them are have what it takes to deal with a harsh environment.” — Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 private credit Marks reports Oaktree achieved 99% success rate in bonds paying interest and principal as promised over 48 yea https://minutesof.com/q/ae9aa677-6901-4962-a424-ac008460e488/ https://minutesof.com/q/ae9aa677-6901-4962-a424-ac008460e488/ “in our experience, ninety nine percent of the bonds have paid interest in principle as promised. So I think I can say almost every time.” — Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 private credit Marks states Oaktree's default rate over 40 years was one-third the market average of 3.6-3.7% annually. https://minutesof.com/q/02f177de-1f74-4320-b66c-82974016c635/ https://minutesof.com/q/02f177de-1f74-4320-b66c-82974016c635/ “over the last forty years, on average, something like 3.6 or 3.7% of all high yield bonds have gone into default every year, and our default rate has been roughly a third.” — Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 private credit Marks quotes Jamie Dimon saying when you see one cockroach there are probably more. https://minutesof.com/q/beec94d0-b941-4188-b150-37444ff4b03b/ https://minutesof.com/q/beec94d0-b941-4188-b150-37444ff4b03b/ “Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan says a lot of things best. He said, you know, when you see one cockroach, there are probably more. So, people started to say, well, maybe there's something wrong here.” — Wharton School Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:17:40 +0000 private credit Marks argues private credit managers took in too much money and invested it too fast, making bad decisions. https://minutesof.com/q/46d27ebc-2050-4731-ada9-d4f7636a0269/ https://minutesof.com/q/46d27ebc-2050-4731-ada9-d4f7636a0269/ “There's nothing wrong with lending money to companies. The question is, do you do it wisely?” — CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 private credit Marks argues private asset valuation is fundamentally ambiguous with no clear standard for what constitutes fa https://minutesof.com/q/48e6a01a-4a22-4e26-8757-fd112b3f68f2/ https://minutesof.com/q/48e6a01a-4a22-4e26-8757-fd112b3f68f2/ “Am I supposed to value these things at what they're worth? What I could sell them for? What I could sell half for?” — CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 private credit Marks defines proper private asset valuation as the price an intelligent, unemotional buyer would pay today. https://minutesof.com/q/61f16caf-4a11-4520-a2cf-592d3ae4c24e/ https://minutesof.com/q/61f16caf-4a11-4520-a2cf-592d3ae4c24e/ “I think it should be valued at what an intelligent, unemotional buyer would pay for it today.” — CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 private credit Marks says direct lending stopped offering excess returns one to two years ago, delivering only adequate retur https://minutesof.com/q/21da301d-2643-41f2-aefa-4864005dfffd/ https://minutesof.com/q/21da301d-2643-41f2-aefa-4864005dfffd/ “I would say that as of a year or so, maybe two years ago, direct lending was, as you say, you use the term alpha, it was no longer special.” — Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 private credit Marks reports direct lending now offers only 100 to 125 basis points over public credit. https://minutesof.com/q/f603678e-1476-4af4-954f-46b1627668e8/ https://minutesof.com/q/f603678e-1476-4af4-954f-46b1627668e8/ “Direct lending was fine. It was fair. You got a 100 or a 125 basis points of incremental interest over public credit.” — Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 private credit Marks questions why investors focus exclusively on private credit while ignoring public credit alternatives. https://minutesof.com/q/c326d0c2-1446-4732-a7b1-fd08e13e9489/ https://minutesof.com/q/c326d0c2-1446-4732-a7b1-fd08e13e9489/ “And I would say, let's talk about credit. Why do you skip all the way from zero to private credit, glossing over public credit,” — Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 private credit Marks says private credit's yield advantage over public credit recently narrowed to just 125 basis points, eli https://minutesof.com/q/e3bf5dd7-4395-4a9d-9800-933becc41497/ https://minutesof.com/q/e3bf5dd7-4395-4a9d-9800-933becc41497/ “It struck me that 125 basis points for a liquidity premium was about fair. It was probably adequate, but certainly not lush, and so, in my opinion, the specialness had gone away.” — Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 private credit Marks argues lending to high-risk activities creates unlimited downside with limited upside, making it the wro https://minutesof.com/q/8dc958af-89ab-41e9-b69e-9335477c6aac/ https://minutesof.com/q/8dc958af-89ab-41e9-b69e-9335477c6aac/ “You certainly shouldn't do that in in in activities that have a high probability of not paying off at all because then you have unlimited downside and limited upside.” — Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 private credit Marks says credit instruments now offer equity-type returns with high single to low double digit yields. https://minutesof.com/q/9e357b22-1065-4a78-a666-2e09a669c9e8/ https://minutesof.com/q/9e357b22-1065-4a78-a666-2e09a669c9e8/ “Today, you can get equity type returns from what we call credit instruments, loans, corporate corporate loans, loans for buyouts.” — David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 private credit Marks explains bonds as fixed promises where all paying bonds deliver identical returns. https://minutesof.com/q/df4778fe-be55-4fb5-ba94-890a2556426e/ https://minutesof.com/q/df4778fe-be55-4fb5-ba94-890a2556426e/ “You give me $100 and I promise to give you 5% interest every year and then give you a bonding back in twenty years. Fixed income, it's called, because all the events are fixed.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 private credit Marks explains bonds as fixed contracts where all returns are identical if promises are kept. https://minutesof.com/q/c91fbe50-a600-40de-87a4-d8535c968e58/ https://minutesof.com/q/c91fbe50-a600-40de-87a4-d8535c968e58/ “Fixed income, it's called, because all the events are fixed. The contract is fixed. The return is fixed, assuming the promise is kept.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 private credit Marks launched the first distressed debt fund in 1988, investing in bonds already in default. https://minutesof.com/q/8896cf44-e1db-448c-b8ff-4eee80c8376b/ https://minutesof.com/q/8896cf44-e1db-448c-b8ff-4eee80c8376b/ “in 'eighty eight, we brought out the first distressed debt fund. Now we're not investing in companies that have a risk of default.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 private credit Marks launched the first distressed debt fund in 1988, investing in bonds of bankrupt or near-bankrupt compani https://minutesof.com/q/0870e3fd-1498-4a1b-8363-70b5e5db12b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/0870e3fd-1498-4a1b-8363-70b5e5db12b1/ “we brought out the first distressed debt fund. Now we're not investing in companies that have a risk of default. We're investing in bonds that are either in default or sure to be.” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 private credit Marks reports Oaktree made 23% annually for 28 years in distressed debt without leverage. https://minutesof.com/q/f7aecf44-6e27-4509-a84e-893d084a346c/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7aecf44-6e27-4509-a84e-893d084a346c/ “And we've made about 23% a year for twenty eight years investing in distressed debt before fees without any leverage. So that's pretty astronomical. Why?” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 private credit Marks reports 23% annual returns for 28 years in distressed debt without leverage by buying below intrinsic va https://minutesof.com/q/ced6776e-1275-4530-ab46-eeb4fa60c308/ https://minutesof.com/q/ced6776e-1275-4530-ab46-eeb4fa60c308/ “we've made about 23% a year for twenty eight years investing in distressed debt before fees without any leverage. So that's pretty astronomical. Why?” — Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 private credit