The Minutes of Howard Marks on probability https://minutesof.com/howard-marks/on/probability/ Everything Howard Marks has said on probability: 3 verbatim quotes between May 2022 and August 2026, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording it… en Mon, 31 Aug 2026 13:10:24 +0000 Marks says even when he thinks he is right on market calls he assumes probability is only eighty-twenty. https://minutesof.com/q/b4df3931-1614-4084-b9aa-5f934f9f096f/ https://minutesof.com/q/b4df3931-1614-4084-b9aa-5f934f9f096f/ “But, you know, in the investment business, even when you're even when you think you're right, you shouldn't assume that it's more than $80.20.” — The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 probability Marks uses a probability metaphor: investment outcomes are like drawing one ticket from many possible outcomes https://minutesof.com/q/b9b2d031-53ee-4df0-af0e-c4fd4cac307c/ https://minutesof.com/q/b9b2d031-53ee-4df0-af0e-c4fd4cac307c/ “the outcome of pulling a ticket from the bowl, the outcome of which investment performance will occur, never amounts to one ticket picked from among many.” — Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 probability