The Minutes of John Williams on forecast https://minutesof.com/john-williams/on/forecast/ Everything John Williams has said on forecast: 24 verbatim quotes, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording it came from. en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:23:02 +0000 Williams says inflation is at 4 percent, driven first by higher tariffs on imported goods. https://minutesof.com/q/e2f7621e-8b46-43f9-bb0d-976d3c80820a/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2f7621e-8b46-43f9-bb0d-976d3c80820a/ “This elevation primarily reflects three drivers. The first is the effect of higher tariffs on imported goods.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams expects new tariffs to replace expiring ones without adding significant additional price pressure. https://minutesof.com/q/d12909d1-1c84-40d0-931f-0f5112b6b36c/ https://minutesof.com/q/d12909d1-1c84-40d0-931f-0f5112b6b36c/ “My expectation is that any new tariffs will primarily replace those that were curtailed or will soon expire, so we shouldn’t see a significant additional impulse on prices from this source going forward.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams expects tariffs to boost overall prices by 1 to 1.5 percent through first half of next year. https://minutesof.com/q/15fc85f4-61bf-4fdb-abc1-7a335f5c3744/ https://minutesof.com/q/15fc85f4-61bf-4fdb-abc1-7a335f5c3744/ “All in all, I expect tariffs will boost overall prices by a total of between 1 and 1-1/2 percent, with these effects continuing through the first half of next year.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams forecasts tariffs will add roughly 1 percentage point to inflation through early 2026. https://minutesof.com/q/4b4ab5ce-c32d-4b87-b492-66860f295bc3/ https://minutesof.com/q/4b4ab5ce-c32d-4b87-b492-66860f295bc3/ “Overall, I expect tariffs to boost inflation by about 1 percentage point over the second half of this year and the first part of next year.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams expects tariffs to have one-off price effects and inflation to decline later this year after peak tar https://minutesof.com/q/6c0a3b5f-7988-4bbb-9a1f-d7c9b95057e9/ https://minutesof.com/q/6c0a3b5f-7988-4bbb-9a1f-d7c9b95057e9/ “Given the lack of second-round effects and well-anchored inflation expectations, I expect the tariffs largely to have one-off effects on prices.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams forecasts inflation peaking at 2.75 to 3 percent in first half 2026, reaching 2 percent goal in 2027. https://minutesof.com/q/c3340250-cad1-4eef-b4f9-74a786310f27/ https://minutesof.com/q/c3340250-cad1-4eef-b4f9-74a786310f27/ “I anticipate inflation will peak at around 2-3/4 to 3 percent sometime during the first half of this year, before starting to fall back.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams expects GDP growth of 2.5 to 2.75 percent in 2026, driven by fiscal policy and AI investment. https://minutesof.com/q/dcb8888f-9f35-4b54-ad89-c8705cc141cb/ https://minutesof.com/q/dcb8888f-9f35-4b54-ad89-c8705cc141cb/ “I expect the economy to grow above trend this year, with real GDP growth between 2-1/2 and 2-3/4 percent.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams expects GDP growth near 2.5 percent this year from fiscal policy, financial conditions, and AI invest https://minutesof.com/q/7068b41e-435d-46d8-ab91-ee08b96d80d7/ https://minutesof.com/q/7068b41e-435d-46d8-ab91-ee08b96d80d7/ “I expect real GDP growth to be close to 2-1/2 percent this year, reflecting tailwinds from fiscal policy, favorable financial conditions, and investment in AI.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams expects inflation around 3 percent this year, reaching 2 percent target in 2027. https://minutesof.com/q/3a4424d0-1ff0-4768-a6ea-216f82f1087d/ https://minutesof.com/q/3a4424d0-1ff0-4768-a6ea-216f82f1087d/ “Looking ahead, my base case is for inflation to be about 3 percent this year, before dropping to our 2 percent target in 2027” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams expects inflation around 2.75 percent this year, reaching 2 percent target in 2027. https://minutesof.com/q/e9585464-0edc-4a16-b5d4-cae2204f5302/ https://minutesof.com/q/e9585464-0edc-4a16-b5d4-cae2204f5302/ “I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-3/4 percent this year, before reaching our longer-run 2 percent target in 2027.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams expects GDP growth of about 2.5 percent this year driven by fiscal stimulus, financial conditions, an https://minutesof.com/q/da7fd3b0-4cc6-462d-bcfe-d933dcf61ca0/ https://minutesof.com/q/da7fd3b0-4cc6-462d-bcfe-d933dcf61ca0/ “I expect real GDP to grow about 2-1/2 percent this year, supported by stimulus from fiscal policy, favorable financial conditions, and robust investments in artificial intelligence.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams expects real GDP growth to slow considerably to just over 1 percent this year. https://minutesof.com/q/c9e6ca7e-839e-4893-a88a-169901e07ad9/ https://minutesof.com/q/c9e6ca7e-839e-4893-a88a-169901e07ad9/ “I expect real GDP growth this year will slow considerably from last year’s pace, to just over 1 percent.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams forecasts GDP growth of 2 to 2.25 percent and unemployment of 4.25 to 4.5 percent. https://minutesof.com/q/e4905a54-6578-40f6-9b0d-8051a99a58ee/ https://minutesof.com/q/e4905a54-6578-40f6-9b0d-8051a99a58ee/ “Consequently, with growth around its trend pace, I expect the unemployment rate will remain in its recent range of 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams forecasts unemployment rising to 4.5 percent, inflation hitting 3 percent in 2025 before declining to https://minutesof.com/q/74a9dac1-cbb8-465b-8098-f2bc918d105c/ https://minutesof.com/q/74a9dac1-cbb8-465b-8098-f2bc918d105c/ “With this deceleration of real GDP, I expect the unemployment rate to rise to around 4-1/2 percent by the end of this year.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams forecasts unemployment declining, inflation at 2.5 percent in 2026, then falling to 2 percent in 2027 https://minutesof.com/q/07620c11-1516-4239-b121-256af5477b84/ https://minutesof.com/q/07620c11-1516-4239-b121-256af5477b84/ “And with the effects of tariffs on inflation waning later in the year, I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-1/2 percent in 2026, then fall to 2 percent in 2027.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams expects real GDP growth of about 1 percent in 2025. https://minutesof.com/q/59635bdb-6a77-471d-bb42-d107064b762f/ https://minutesof.com/q/59635bdb-6a77-471d-bb42-d107064b762f/ “As a result, I expect real GDP growth this year to be about 1 percent.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams forecasts unemployment rising to around 4.5 percent by end of 2025. https://minutesof.com/q/61eafb8f-d4ec-4b85-a0e1-43e32100d1c7/ https://minutesof.com/q/61eafb8f-d4ec-4b85-a0e1-43e32100d1c7/ “With this slowdown in growth, I expect the unemployment rate to rise to around 4-1/2 percent by the end of this year.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams forecasts inflation of 3 to 3.5 percent in 2025, declining to 2 percent by 2027. https://minutesof.com/q/addfcb3f-d598-4e9e-8e59-50bb3d885890/ https://minutesof.com/q/addfcb3f-d598-4e9e-8e59-50bb3d885890/ “I anticipate inflation will come in between 3 and 3-1/2 percent in 2025, and then fall back to about 2-1/2 percent next year before reaching 2 percent in 2027.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams forecasts unemployment rising to 4.5 percent, inflation at 3 to 3.25 percent this year, reaching 2 pe https://minutesof.com/q/b502edb7-d1c4-468d-b134-843af44fcff0/ https://minutesof.com/q/b502edb7-d1c4-468d-b134-843af44fcff0/ “And I expect PCE inflation to come in between 3 and 3-1/4 percent this year, before declining to around 2-1/2 percent next year, and reaching 2 percent in 2027.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams estimates tariffs have added 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to current inflation without second-round https://minutesof.com/q/aec4dd09-0b46-40fa-a73b-cfb2110bf9ca/ https://minutesof.com/q/aec4dd09-0b46-40fa-a73b-cfb2110bf9ca/ “My estimate is that increased tariffs have contributed about one half to three quarters of a percentage point to the current inflation rate.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Looking ahead, I expect real GDP growth to be around 2 to 2-1/4 percent this year and over the next two years. https://minutesof.com/q/2cbf8d64-8bdf-4bdc-be2d-9955d918e6e2/ https://minutesof.com/q/2cbf8d64-8bdf-4bdc-be2d-9955d918e6e2/ “Looking ahead, I expect real GDP growth to be around 2 to 2-1/4 percent this year and over the next two years.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams forecasts GDP growth of 2 to 2.25 percent with unemployment declining to 4 percent by 2028. https://minutesof.com/q/f9750852-defc-432d-82a6-9427464672e3/ https://minutesof.com/q/f9750852-defc-432d-82a6-9427464672e3/ “With growth running modestly above my estimate of its potential rate of 2 percent, I expect the unemployment rate to edge down very gradually to 4 percent in 2028.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams expects inflation to fall to 3.25 percent by year-end, reaching 2 percent target in 2028. https://minutesof.com/q/989b070c-1a42-45f6-aa78-1a5169a38365/ https://minutesof.com/q/989b070c-1a42-45f6-aa78-1a5169a38365/ “For the reasons I outlined a moment ago, I expect overall inflation to decline to around 3-1/4 percent by year-end, then continue on a glide path toward our 2 percent goal in 2027 and land on target in 2028.” — NY Fed speeches forecast Williams notes Treasury estimates TGA balances could peak around $1.025 trillion by late April, drawing down r https://minutesof.com/q/4cbaa82b-c0e1-4873-acdc-21f48e9c7e7f/ https://minutesof.com/q/4cbaa82b-c0e1-4873-acdc-21f48e9c7e7f/ “In fact, the U.S. Treasury recently estimated that TGA balances could peak around $1.025 trillion by late April, amid tax season inflows, likely resulting in a notable drawdown in reserves.” — NY Fed speeches forecast