The Minutes of John Williams on inflation https://minutesof.com/john-williams/on/inflation/ Everything John Williams has said on inflation: 34 verbatim quotes, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording it came from. en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:23:02 +0000 at that time stock exchange floors were loud places crowded with people and paper, Paul Volcker was the Federa https://minutesof.com/q/a6d5e80a-e4c1-4c24-9d37-f081e6ba53d1/ https://minutesof.com/q/a6d5e80a-e4c1-4c24-9d37-f081e6ba53d1/ “at that time stock exchange floors were loud places crowded with people and paper, Paul Volcker was the Federal Reserve chairman, having helped steer the country out of a period of high inflation, and a single European currency remained just an idea.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams links 1970s productivity slowdown to stagflation and 1990s-2000s boom to low-inflation prosperity. https://minutesof.com/q/51f2e00e-7ee3-4707-ae15-0e1532531e40/ https://minutesof.com/q/51f2e00e-7ee3-4707-ae15-0e1532531e40/ “The productivity slowdown of the 1970s contributed to stagflation. And the productivity boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s was a contributing factor to that decade’s economic prosperity with low inflation.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams estimates tariffs have added roughly half a percentage point to current inflation running at about 2. https://minutesof.com/q/52a2efcc-891f-4590-8b5e-12261e6e8a13/ https://minutesof.com/q/52a2efcc-891f-4590-8b5e-12261e6e8a13/ “My current estimate is that the increase in tariffs to date has contributed around one half of a percentage point to the current inflation rate of about 2-3/4 percent.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams warns low r-star means more frequent lower bound constraints on policy effectiveness. https://minutesof.com/q/5cb32714-d4d4-4eaa-bec6-877c2f88b8ab/ https://minutesof.com/q/5cb32714-d4d4-4eaa-bec6-877c2f88b8ab/ “A low r-star implies the economy can encounter more frequent and longer periods when monetary policy is constrained by the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates, potentially impeding the achievement of a central bank’s inflation goals and other macroeconomic objectives.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams notes inflation expectations have receded to pre-pandemic averages after April tariff pullback. https://minutesof.com/q/f93cc238-75ef-4af4-adb6-a23b43dffe9e/ https://minutesof.com/q/f93cc238-75ef-4af4-adb6-a23b43dffe9e/ “Longer-run inflation expectations have remained stable. And with the pullback in tariffs since early April, short- and medium-term inflation expectations have receded back close to their pre-pandemic averages.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams says inflation is at 4 percent, driven first by higher tariffs on imported goods. https://minutesof.com/q/e2f7621e-8b46-43f9-bb0d-976d3c80820a/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2f7621e-8b46-43f9-bb0d-976d3c80820a/ “This elevation primarily reflects three drivers. The first is the effect of higher tariffs on imported goods.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams identifies tariffs, Middle East conflict, and AI-driven demand as the three drivers of elevated infla https://minutesof.com/q/c98817e3-78e3-49f2-8160-1f63083b1cbe/ https://minutesof.com/q/c98817e3-78e3-49f2-8160-1f63083b1cbe/ “The first is the effect of higher tariffs on imported goods. The second is supply chain disruptions and higher energy and commodity prices owing to the conflict in the Middle East.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams cites Middle East conflict and AI-related demand as second and third inflation drivers. https://minutesof.com/q/081766ba-afc2-4394-90e3-8a6fe2a4d6e0/ https://minutesof.com/q/081766ba-afc2-4394-90e3-8a6fe2a4d6e0/ “The second is supply chain disruptions and higher energy and commodity prices owing to the conflict in the Middle East.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams attributes about one percentage point of March inflation to tariffs and energy prices. https://minutesof.com/q/9ba2a9b8-6509-4b97-a1cc-47b5d00a3d7e/ https://minutesof.com/q/9ba2a9b8-6509-4b97-a1cc-47b5d00a3d7e/ “The combination of higher tariffs and energy prices has contributed about a percentage point to that figure.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams says AI investment will support productivity growth but currently supply and demand are racing. https://minutesof.com/q/ecd09b44-67b7-4494-978c-8c8fe2c0025e/ https://minutesof.com/q/ecd09b44-67b7-4494-978c-8c8fe2c0025e/ “I am confident that these investments will support strong productivity growth in coming years. But, right now, we’re in a race between available supply and surging demand.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams sees sharp price increases in semiconductors and power transformers from AI demand outpacing supply. https://minutesof.com/q/9df06e8e-0a4a-4145-9485-d30234e25f7c/ https://minutesof.com/q/9df06e8e-0a4a-4145-9485-d30234e25f7c/ “As a result, we are seeing sharp increases in the prices of semiconductors, power transformers, and other technology that is essential for the AI buildout.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams states inflation is around 3 percent with tariffs adding 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points. https://minutesof.com/q/a4ac1c30-ba52-48a7-8ba8-493916521fed/ https://minutesof.com/q/a4ac1c30-ba52-48a7-8ba8-493916521fed/ “inflation is currently hovering around 3 percent, with tariffs contributing between one half and three quarters of a percentage point to this figure.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams expects new tariffs to replace expiring ones without adding significant additional price pressure. https://minutesof.com/q/d12909d1-1c84-40d0-931f-0f5112b6b36c/ https://minutesof.com/q/d12909d1-1c84-40d0-931f-0f5112b6b36c/ “My expectation is that any new tariffs will primarily replace those that were curtailed or will soon expire, so we shouldn’t see a significant additional impulse on prices from this source going forward.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams estimates tariffs have added 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to the current 3 percent inflation rate. https://minutesof.com/q/51d8e4c7-436b-4456-94e4-6d1624100eaa/ https://minutesof.com/q/51d8e4c7-436b-4456-94e4-6d1624100eaa/ “My current estimate is that, to date, the increase in tariffs has contributed around one half to three quarters of a percentage point to the current inflation rate of about 3 percent.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams says there are no signs of significant second-round effects from tariffs. https://minutesof.com/q/837ef5a0-0036-4bc9-9c54-6210e20d630b/ https://minutesof.com/q/837ef5a0-0036-4bc9-9c54-6210e20d630b/ “There are no signs of significant second-round effects from tariffs spilling over to the rest of the economy,” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams reports three-quarters of businesses passed along tariff costs, with a third to half fully passing th https://minutesof.com/q/99305e12-38f7-4d6f-b594-ac79528569f1/ https://minutesof.com/q/99305e12-38f7-4d6f-b594-ac79528569f1/ “Indeed, almost a third of manufacturers and nearly half of service firms reported fully passing along all tariff-related cost increases.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams expects tariffs to boost overall prices by 1 to 1.5 percent through first half of next year. https://minutesof.com/q/15fc85f4-61bf-4fdb-abc1-7a335f5c3744/ https://minutesof.com/q/15fc85f4-61bf-4fdb-abc1-7a335f5c3744/ “All in all, I expect tariffs will boost overall prices by a total of between 1 and 1-1/2 percent, with these effects continuing through the first half of next year.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams expects tariff effects on aggregate data to increase in coming months despite modest impacts so far. https://minutesof.com/q/50ddf5ce-384a-4023-8e03-58a36ee64537/ https://minutesof.com/q/50ddf5ce-384a-4023-8e03-58a36ee64537/ “All in all, although we are only seeing relatively modest effects of tariffs in the hard aggregate data so far, I expect those effects to increase in coming months.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams notes Latin American central banks raised rates before the Fed during COVID inflation, reversing hist https://minutesof.com/q/0c99c63b-e8bb-41f7-b9dd-bfc081dbbe4a/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c99c63b-e8bb-41f7-b9dd-bfc081dbbe4a/ “Until COVID-19, central banks in emerging economies, including many in Latin America, typically had followed the lead of the Fed when responding to shocks.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams forecasts tariffs will add roughly 1 percentage point to inflation through early 2026. https://minutesof.com/q/4b4ab5ce-c32d-4b87-b492-66860f295bc3/ https://minutesof.com/q/4b4ab5ce-c32d-4b87-b492-66860f295bc3/ “Overall, I expect tariffs to boost inflation by about 1 percentage point over the second half of this year and the first part of next year.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams expects tariffs to have one-off price effects and inflation to decline later this year after peak tar https://minutesof.com/q/6c0a3b5f-7988-4bbb-9a1f-d7c9b95057e9/ https://minutesof.com/q/6c0a3b5f-7988-4bbb-9a1f-d7c9b95057e9/ “Given the lack of second-round effects and well-anchored inflation expectations, I expect the tariffs largely to have one-off effects on prices.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams forecasts inflation peaking at 2.75 to 3 percent in first half 2026, reaching 2 percent goal in 2027. https://minutesof.com/q/c3340250-cad1-4eef-b4f9-74a786310f27/ https://minutesof.com/q/c3340250-cad1-4eef-b4f9-74a786310f27/ “I anticipate inflation will peak at around 2-3/4 to 3 percent sometime during the first half of this year, before starting to fall back.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams expects inflation around 2.75 percent this year, reaching 2 percent target in 2027. https://minutesof.com/q/e9585464-0edc-4a16-b5d4-cae2204f5302/ https://minutesof.com/q/e9585464-0edc-4a16-b5d4-cae2204f5302/ “I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-3/4 percent this year, before reaching our longer-run 2 percent target in 2027.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams forecasts unemployment rising to 4.5 percent, inflation hitting 3 percent in 2025 before declining to https://minutesof.com/q/74a9dac1-cbb8-465b-8098-f2bc918d105c/ https://minutesof.com/q/74a9dac1-cbb8-465b-8098-f2bc918d105c/ “With this deceleration of real GDP, I expect the unemployment rate to rise to around 4-1/2 percent by the end of this year.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams forecasts unemployment declining, inflation at 2.5 percent in 2026, then falling to 2 percent in 2027 https://minutesof.com/q/07620c11-1516-4239-b121-256af5477b84/ https://minutesof.com/q/07620c11-1516-4239-b121-256af5477b84/ “And with the effects of tariffs on inflation waning later in the year, I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-1/2 percent in 2026, then fall to 2 percent in 2027.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams says further rate cuts will eventually be warranted to prevent policy from becoming inadvertently res https://minutesof.com/q/83a10d3b-cfb2-4a60-b531-309171f74bdd/ https://minutesof.com/q/83a10d3b-cfb2-4a60-b531-309171f74bdd/ “Looking further ahead, if inflation follows the path I expect, further reductions in the federal funds rate will eventually be warranted to prevent monetary policy from inadvertently becoming more restrictive.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams forecasts inflation of 3 to 3.5 percent in 2025, declining to 2 percent by 2027. https://minutesof.com/q/addfcb3f-d598-4e9e-8e59-50bb3d885890/ https://minutesof.com/q/addfcb3f-d598-4e9e-8e59-50bb3d885890/ “I anticipate inflation will come in between 3 and 3-1/2 percent in 2025, and then fall back to about 2-1/2 percent next year before reaching 2 percent in 2027.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams forecasts unemployment rising to 4.5 percent, inflation at 3 to 3.25 percent this year, reaching 2 pe https://minutesof.com/q/b502edb7-d1c4-468d-b134-843af44fcff0/ https://minutesof.com/q/b502edb7-d1c4-468d-b134-843af44fcff0/ “And I expect PCE inflation to come in between 3 and 3-1/4 percent this year, before declining to around 2-1/2 percent next year, and reaching 2 percent in 2027.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams estimates tariffs have added 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to current inflation without second-round https://minutesof.com/q/aec4dd09-0b46-40fa-a73b-cfb2110bf9ca/ https://minutesof.com/q/aec4dd09-0b46-40fa-a73b-cfb2110bf9ca/ “My estimate is that increased tariffs have contributed about one half to three quarters of a percentage point to the current inflation rate.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams expects inflation to fall to 3.25 percent by year-end, reaching 2 percent target in 2028. https://minutesof.com/q/989b070c-1a42-45f6-aa78-1a5169a38365/ https://minutesof.com/q/989b070c-1a42-45f6-aa78-1a5169a38365/ “For the reasons I outlined a moment ago, I expect overall inflation to decline to around 3-1/4 percent by year-end, then continue on a glide path toward our 2 percent goal in 2027 and land on target in 2028.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams sees increased downside employment risks and lessened upside inflation risks as labor market cools. https://minutesof.com/q/3dcecd46-1544-4b78-a32e-67886db62db3/ https://minutesof.com/q/3dcecd46-1544-4b78-a32e-67886db62db3/ “My assessment is that the downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market has cooled, while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams says immediate recognition of productivity shifts produces trivial inflation effects below 0.1 percen https://minutesof.com/q/eca4b5aa-6f50-49e9-b602-dacfce66e159/ https://minutesof.com/q/eca4b5aa-6f50-49e9-b602-dacfce66e159/ “Indeed, with immediate recognition (not shown), the depressing effect on the inflation rate is trivial, less than one tenth of a percentage point.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams states anchoring inflation expectations is a bedrock principle for maintaining low and stable inflati https://minutesof.com/q/d2e845f1-39e4-49d4-a785-e5d0881dbef5/ https://minutesof.com/q/d2e845f1-39e4-49d4-a785-e5d0881dbef5/ “This principle has become a bedrock of modern central banking, as economic analysis and history have shown that anchoring inflation expectations is important in maintaining low and stable inflation.” — NY Fed speeches inflation Williams cautions that overconfidence in r-star estimates risks unmooring inflation expectations. https://minutesof.com/q/e56ba250-d66a-47a8-804e-ae6b47a288c5/ https://minutesof.com/q/e56ba250-d66a-47a8-804e-ae6b47a288c5/ “Given the wide range of uncertainties, acting as if one knows the star variables when making policy can lead to persistent deviations of inflation from the target that risk unmooring inflation expectations.” — NY Fed speeches inflation