The Minutes of John Williams on productivity https://minutesof.com/john-williams/on/productivity/ Everything John Williams has said on productivity: 3 verbatim quotes, each with a timestamp and a link to the recording it came from. en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:23:02 +0000 Williams notes productivity growth swings from minus 2 to 7 percent yearly versus 2 percent long-run average. https://minutesof.com/q/a8d917de-05e8-4dfa-9e28-7be55b0b50eb/ https://minutesof.com/q/a8d917de-05e8-4dfa-9e28-7be55b0b50eb/ “Year-over-year productivity growth swings from minus 2 percent to 7 percent, compared to the long-run average of just over 2 percent ( Figure 1 ).” — NY Fed speeches productivity Williams identifies two distinct productivity regimes: 3 percent during boom periods versus 1.5 percent otherw https://minutesof.com/q/c35b7482-c673-4f88-99bf-9189ad9d4ad0/ https://minutesof.com/q/c35b7482-c673-4f88-99bf-9189ad9d4ad0/ “In each of these episodes, productivity growth averaged around 3 percent. At other times, relatively slow productivity growth of around 1-1/2 percent prevailed.” — NY Fed speeches productivity Williams says standard theory paradoxically predicts productivity increases cause downturns with declining inv https://minutesof.com/q/ff1dbc4a-135f-478e-80e0-b055409d789c/ https://minutesof.com/q/ff1dbc4a-135f-478e-80e0-b055409d789c/ “Assuming immediate recognition, standard macroeconomic theories predict a paradoxical result: an increase in trend productivity growth drives up real interest rates and causes an economic downturn, with hours worked, investment, and output declining.” — NY Fed speeches productivity