https://minutesof.com/on/ai-capex/ Everyone on the record about AI capex: 82 verbatim quotes from 4 people, November 2019 to August 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a link… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:32:46 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/97cbfdba-ab42-4e33-a2d7-dfef4623b92f/ https://minutesof.com/q/97cbfdba-ab42-4e33-a2d7-dfef4623b92f/ “There's 25,000,000,000,000 in knowledge work. And so let's, you know, let's say that that's, you know, let's take your 20% number. That's 5,000,000,000,000.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/3598c618-46c5-4911-bda9-726bf23a067e/ https://minutesof.com/q/3598c618-46c5-4911-bda9-726bf23a067e/ “If they bring on anywhere near that, the consensus estimate is 73,000,000,000. That's eight gigs at 50,000,000,000 a gig. And, obviously, that would not all be lit up at the beginning of twenty seven.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/2cbe2ec5-4ba8-4401-9e50-95a7fe2050a5/ https://minutesof.com/q/2cbe2ec5-4ba8-4401-9e50-95a7fe2050a5/ “A Substack writer will fund the AI. They think that SpaceX is gonna try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next eighteen months.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/273fa3f1-13d3-4f0d-9774-ac10ff1c4250/ https://minutesof.com/q/273fa3f1-13d3-4f0d-9774-ac10ff1c4250/ “The amount of compute is going up and inference margins going up. And if you multiply those three, that's how you're getting this crazy acceleration into some of the labs plus open source,” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/f8a1ce63-0c20-4776-b362-c6e16f7a9165/ https://minutesof.com/q/f8a1ce63-0c20-4776-b362-c6e16f7a9165/ “I'm just making this up. But, like, do something. Like, you can because you have money now and credit markets are revolting.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/1c68adab-c7db-487c-a37a-3d17c27ea19c/ https://minutesof.com/q/1c68adab-c7db-487c-a37a-3d17c27ea19c/ “Well, if they're breaking their LTAs, it probably means, you know, your oversupply, prices are coming down, and then, you know, capacity naturally contracts. Well, what do you think is gonna happen to Google's allocations?” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/b66f155d-c49c-4b33-86f4-72831629b0a8/ https://minutesof.com/q/b66f155d-c49c-4b33-86f4-72831629b0a8/ “I think one reason to the podcast two months ago, I got comfortable with that risk was just that you were seeing such incredible things out of anthropic.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/cb3e3303-15a7-44f3-b0ac-646dac4d09d8/ https://minutesof.com/q/cb3e3303-15a7-44f3-b0ac-646dac4d09d8/ “But there is an unusual amount of onetimers this quarter. And if you adjust for that, we went from 28 to 35. That's that's a material acceleration at this scale.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/978729d0-58b1-4960-8a4f-e5ef94383ed3/ https://minutesof.com/q/978729d0-58b1-4960-8a4f-e5ef94383ed3/ “Operating cash flow from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon has reported accelerated from '28 to '32. There are some actually pretty big unusual items now like these hyperscalers.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/c85f4400-5d03-4327-a817-cfa56c88e0a0/ https://minutesof.com/q/c85f4400-5d03-4327-a817-cfa56c88e0a0/ “And so, essentially, you have the contracted base of installed compute trading at a massive discount to the current spot market.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/0b20c2f9-3c26-4495-8ebb-ac7e506821ad/ https://minutesof.com/q/0b20c2f9-3c26-4495-8ebb-ac7e506821ad/ “I don't think anyone in '24 or '25 thought that the prices of old GPUs would be going vertical. Everybody thought, hey. We're gonna be smart. We're gonna sign these long term contracts.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/d7be6f16-b01e-405f-bf98-4894a50c98fd/ https://minutesof.com/q/d7be6f16-b01e-405f-bf98-4894a50c98fd/ “Loads of AI names are down 60% from their highs. We'll call it 40% to 60% in a month in a straight line.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/4539a2dc-69c6-4f11-a40c-8a82c9735292/ https://minutesof.com/q/4539a2dc-69c6-4f11-a40c-8a82c9735292/ “I think there will be a return on all of this capex and this is temporary market volatility amplified by leverage.” — David Sacks, All-In Podcast Sat, 01 Aug 2026 04:16:11 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/d42a1b86-60fc-431a-8a6b-892fc8405b51/ https://minutesof.com/q/d42a1b86-60fc-431a-8a6b-892fc8405b51/ “The disaggregation of inference means that I think these GPUs are going to have ten or fifteen year lives. The AI skeptics are like, oh, these companies are all cooking their books.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/4b52026f-d927-4a34-90b9-14245a9cc937/ https://minutesof.com/q/4b52026f-d927-4a34-90b9-14245a9cc937/ “AI is just shifting from all you can eat to pay by the drink. Then it turns out people really like to talk to their friends long distance.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/42fa040e-9f02-4acf-911f-dfbc9a85a96b/ https://minutesof.com/q/42fa040e-9f02-4acf-911f-dfbc9a85a96b/ “To understand what Frontier AI is capable of today, even for a non coding use case, need to have Cloud Code or Codex five point Codex.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/3849c4ea-56aa-49aa-a1e8-f08ea309f02e/ https://minutesof.com/q/3849c4ea-56aa-49aa-a1e8-f08ea309f02e/ “The pace at which they expand capacity. If I were to watch one thing to understand where there's a bubble, it's Taiwan Semi's capacity decisions.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/fb324547-3123-4b57-aa99-0d2aa4293cda/ https://minutesof.com/q/fb324547-3123-4b57-aa99-0d2aa4293cda/ “So Taiwan Semi, if we don't get a bubble, we need to throw a party for them because they will have single handedly prevented a bubble.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/9fba209e-eb21-4dc0-af16-f50081fc3610/ https://minutesof.com/q/9fba209e-eb21-4dc0-af16-f50081fc3610/ “If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, I think Nvidia could sell $2,000,000,000,000 of GPUs in '26 or '27, maybe 2,500,000,000,000, maybe 3,000,000,000,000.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/1def0bff-3374-41a1-8cc6-b9c33c78c1e2/ https://minutesof.com/q/1def0bff-3374-41a1-8cc6-b9c33c78c1e2/ “If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, I think Nvidia could sell $2,000,000,000,000 of GPUs in '26 or '27, maybe 2,500,000,000,000, maybe 3,000,000,000,000. But there is a limit where consumers would consume so much.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/c36e87b2-cd1e-4c19-b84d-b929d673346d/ https://minutesof.com/q/c36e87b2-cd1e-4c19-b84d-b929d673346d/ “It's why I'm probably less worried about like an edge AI bear case than I was. We're going to consume as much compute as we can.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/c36d1b7b-a557-4ecb-b855-6610596f9fe3/ https://minutesof.com/q/c36d1b7b-a557-4ecb-b855-6610596f9fe3/ “And I just think the same is true of compute. It's why I'm probably less worried about like an edge AI bear case than I was.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/52541184-dd18-482e-b266-0236fe4216b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/52541184-dd18-482e-b266-0236fe4216b1/ “And I think maybe a true statement is that Infantropic could just wave a magic wand and get all the compute they wanted. They'd probably be doing well north of $100,000,000,000 today, maybe 150.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/82588e90-fe83-47b1-a16e-aafdc15f56df/ https://minutesof.com/q/82588e90-fe83-47b1-a16e-aafdc15f56df/ “Anthropic added their combined businesses in one month. Nothing like that has ever happened in the history of capitalism.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/bc5a5566-b96e-4ba5-8fbb-169a20af1672/ https://minutesof.com/q/bc5a5566-b96e-4ba5-8fbb-169a20af1672/ “And these three companies employ thousands of people, tens of thousands collectively. They've all spent ten years building their businesses and Anthropic added their combined businesses in one month.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/9c12cc3b-5c54-4a50-9c06-e4d2d16091b9/ https://minutesof.com/q/9c12cc3b-5c54-4a50-9c06-e4d2d16091b9/ “Anthropic, they added $11,000,000,000 of AR. And what is astonishing to me about this is that the SaaS and cloud revolution it created, we'll call it between 5 and $10,000,000,000,000 of value.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/c48365dd-8117-4367-8cf3-593909495dd4/ https://minutesof.com/q/c48365dd-8117-4367-8cf3-593909495dd4/ “I think it's extraordinary that we're financing almost a trillion dollars of capex a year to build out the the entire AI infrastructure without any money from the US government.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Fri, 15 May 2026 20:31:59 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/9a8caf62-46c4-44ea-a4a0-1f5fe7163727/ https://minutesof.com/q/9a8caf62-46c4-44ea-a4a0-1f5fe7163727/ “And you heard the rumors and seen the headlines that 30 or 40% of compute now is delayed this year. So keep your eye on power and compute.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Fri, 15 May 2026 20:31:59 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/c732ff6b-f197-43b8-8938-d34421a963c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/c732ff6b-f197-43b8-8938-d34421a963c6/ “They've announced a trillion dollars over the course of the next six to eight quarters of demand on on, you know, Blackwell's and now Vera Rubins.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Fri, 15 May 2026 20:31:59 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/37c6b2d5-a06c-4583-8cd8-bcefcb922043/ https://minutesof.com/q/37c6b2d5-a06c-4583-8cd8-bcefcb922043/ “And the years leading up to that are gonna be very painful for a lot of the companies and the power cooling spaces, you know, these industrial names,” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/4bbf9d84-bae2-460e-a752-a60a13663534/ https://minutesof.com/q/4bbf9d84-bae2-460e-a752-a60a13663534/ “I could've Atreides could've invested over $50,000,000 in the round at 1,100,000,000, And I was conflicted out by Crusoe,” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/77488a06-75d9-432d-b0cd-0afa0e21f41f/ https://minutesof.com/q/77488a06-75d9-432d-b0cd-0afa0e21f41f/ “Tranium is going to be to 2026, especially in the second half of this year when Tranium three really ramps, as TPUs were to twenty twenty five.” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/7c0eb714-2699-491f-b983-09b25778e0f7/ https://minutesof.com/q/7c0eb714-2699-491f-b983-09b25778e0f7/ “What happens when 5% of the world's population is using these models the way the cutting edge 10 basis points are? Like, it's just it's unimaginable. This is why orbital compute is a necessity.” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/20c46b63-3663-4f9f-9324-17a82821dfcb/ https://minutesof.com/q/20c46b63-3663-4f9f-9324-17a82821dfcb/ “And we're in an insane shortage despite spending cumulatively trillions of dollars. What happens when 5% of the world's population is using these models the way the cutting edge 10 basis points are?” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/eb16479a-ee2b-4d2c-9779-1e7eb5762367/ https://minutesof.com/q/eb16479a-ee2b-4d2c-9779-1e7eb5762367/ “We're just moving from these all you can eat plans to usage based plans with overage, where those usage tokens cost a lot more, and we're finding out that there's we're nowhere near the amount of, you know, people ceiling price for how much they'll spend.” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/5844eeb0-1c90-4b36-a1d3-14fdd317f440/ https://minutesof.com/q/5844eeb0-1c90-4b36-a1d3-14fdd317f440/ “And if they doubled or tripled capacity, like, NVIDIA could probably sell $11,520,000,000,000 worth of chips next year. I really believe that. But the other side of that might be very painful for everyone.” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/17aeec53-9e20-4cc3-bb0b-f1d5fa03e8e1/ https://minutesof.com/q/17aeec53-9e20-4cc3-bb0b-f1d5fa03e8e1/ “And if they doubled or tripled capacity, like, NVIDIA could probably sell $11,520,000,000,000 worth of chips next year. I really believe that.” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/eaa2c07f-36b4-496d-a802-6a49e559de0a/ https://minutesof.com/q/eaa2c07f-36b4-496d-a802-6a49e559de0a/ “This may be the first true capacity cycle. And I and and I and I do think that these fundamental shortages are good for us as investors.” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/d4f2a0f4-56a2-49b1-b256-38a58d9467ac/ https://minutesof.com/q/d4f2a0f4-56a2-49b1-b256-38a58d9467ac/ “And I would just say, I take the over on every number that they gave. Every single number.” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/3de08092-6158-4e51-8455-aa99d5b8c989/ https://minutesof.com/q/3de08092-6158-4e51-8455-aa99d5b8c989/ “And I would just say, I take the over on every number that they gave. Every single number. As what I think, you know, they're conservative guys.” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/71605f31-0146-4113-b115-1ebb3323eac8/ https://minutesof.com/q/71605f31-0146-4113-b115-1ebb3323eac8/ “This year, we're gonna have 800,000,000,000 in total CapEx by the Mag five. And the question was, would there be revenues to justify that?” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Tue, 05 May 2026 22:10:35 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/edcca4b7-9900-4e93-957b-7b9a8995331d/ https://minutesof.com/q/edcca4b7-9900-4e93-957b-7b9a8995331d/ “I think for the next three years, this is like building the interstate highway system. Right? This is significant. It's important to The United States Of America, by the way.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Tue, 10 Feb 2026 21:40:23 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/237fdde5-1f55-4578-8cb5-642191f173bd/ https://minutesof.com/q/237fdde5-1f55-4578-8cb5-642191f173bd/ “650,000,000,000 to 700,000,000,000 of spend out of the big five companies in The US, and they say they're still token constrained.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Tue, 10 Feb 2026 21:40:23 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/26edcdcf-0bbd-4dc4-97c7-cfa8795a5de4/ https://minutesof.com/q/26edcdcf-0bbd-4dc4-97c7-cfa8795a5de4/ “The spending, the CapEx from that group alone is gonna be over $500,000,000,000 this year.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:01:23 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/6c4c2aab-18b6-4975-81b9-68235e3e8fba/ https://minutesof.com/q/6c4c2aab-18b6-4975-81b9-68235e3e8fba/ “In 2023, these companies spent $150,000,000,000 on capex building out data centers. This year, over 500,000,000,000. That's not speculative. That is purchase orders. Those are buildings.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Wed, 07 Jan 2026 22:13:03 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/d355f2bc-75c1-45af-97c8-e4d4cbc914b2/ https://minutesof.com/q/d355f2bc-75c1-45af-97c8-e4d4cbc914b2/ “In 2023, these companies spent $150,000,000,000 on capex building out data centers. This year, over 500,000,000,000. Though, that's not speculative. That is purchase orders. Those are buildings. That's power.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jan 2026 18:25:41 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/6e401eb5-6c61-41ac-bac8-c4109c5148f6/ https://minutesof.com/q/6e401eb5-6c61-41ac-bac8-c4109c5148f6/ “then you've gotta earn about a trillion dollars of AI revenue for all of this CapEx to be worth it.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Tue, 23 Dec 2025 23:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/a92236da-9042-40b4-8a83-468edac2a60e/ https://minutesof.com/q/a92236da-9042-40b4-8a83-468edac2a60e/ “one of the things that keeps investors like me up in the nights is a 250,000,000,000 being spent on NVIDIA on on the semi side of things.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Tue, 23 Dec 2025 23:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/181634e4-7c28-4e3e-8027-37df4f418718/ https://minutesof.com/q/181634e4-7c28-4e3e-8027-37df4f418718/ “And the managing Taiwan Semi is like stamping out that house like Lennar or, you know, D. R. Horton. And for doing those two latter parts, Broadcom earns a 50 to 55% gross margin.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/e679ccc2-32ff-45bb-a011-17fece7abd5e/ https://minutesof.com/q/e679ccc2-32ff-45bb-a011-17fece7abd5e/ “So I think Google for sure has this temporary advantage right now from a pre training perspective. I think it's also important that they've been the lowest cost producer of tokens.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/6d4a663f-9ee4-437d-8f84-e6793465fa5d/ https://minutesof.com/q/6d4a663f-9ee4-437d-8f84-e6793465fa5d/ “You know, you've seen NVIDIA add almost $200,000,000,000 of revenue in the last three years. Yeah. Truly extraordinary.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Tue, 02 Dec 2025 14:15:59 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/321829bd-6978-421e-be99-3f33e66f14c4/ https://minutesof.com/q/321829bd-6978-421e-be99-3f33e66f14c4/ “Now if they're doing a 100 to 200,000,000,000 in revenue in 2829, then now we're in the zone of responsible.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 22:30:01 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/2a8fac41-0bb5-4155-9499-750763a34c14/ https://minutesof.com/q/2a8fac41-0bb5-4155-9499-750763a34c14/ “We are in a global AI race with China. This is like the Manhattan Project. We have to build out compute. It it's a it's not only a national security imperative.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 17:51:39 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/af25e4b1-6f30-420a-9ce3-baefd8aa1c9e/ https://minutesof.com/q/af25e4b1-6f30-420a-9ce3-baefd8aa1c9e/ “Lisa said we're in year two of a ten year super cycle to build out the compute in America. If you're not on the AI wave, then you're not gonna participate in all that upside.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Wed, 15 Oct 2025 12:48:34 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/5c14627c-380b-49f1-af71-9587664517f5/ https://minutesof.com/q/5c14627c-380b-49f1-af71-9587664517f5/ “This is the NVIDIA sell side forecast. Okay? Forecast this year is for about 200,000,000,000 in revenues, growing to about 350,000,000,000 in revenues over the next five years.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:40:02 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/89c95380-882b-4ccf-a9fa-46080e93dc5b/ https://minutesof.com/q/89c95380-882b-4ccf-a9fa-46080e93dc5b/ “So there's no other potential customers, and the buyer would not have had the ability to buy it but for that capital. That to me raises big red flags.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:40:02 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/7df9b330-da17-478a-bbf4-49b621827f37/ https://minutesof.com/q/7df9b330-da17-478a-bbf4-49b621827f37/ “What's your opinion on the build it versus buy it debate around Apple? I feel like for $2,025,000,000,000, they should just buy it, just given how much cash they have” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 28 Aug 2025 17:35:29 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/72b574bb-6c89-4f94-955c-823123abab46/ https://minutesof.com/q/72b574bb-6c89-4f94-955c-823123abab46/ “I think that Iconic is going to lead a $5,000,000,000 round into Anthropic at $170,000,000,000 In the case of Anthropic, it's, you know, 170,000,000,000 on rumored $5,000,000,000 in revenue.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:11:15 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/c0b52752-79e9-4f45-919f-7a388d7cab11/ https://minutesof.com/q/c0b52752-79e9-4f45-919f-7a388d7cab11/ “If you look at this one out of Elon talking about the X dot AI goal is 50,000,000 in units of H100 equivalent.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:11:15 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/49c880e4-2625-4096-ae06-c44b2d83e61e/ https://minutesof.com/q/49c880e4-2625-4096-ae06-c44b2d83e61e/ “CoreWeave announced yesterday a $12,000,000,000 deal with OpenAI on Stargate. Those things are getting constructive. We're investors there. I I can tell you those things are getting built.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Wed, 12 Mar 2025 13:00:04 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/93a8a999-c2cc-4bca-94ea-c9bcdf6a2daa/ https://minutesof.com/q/93a8a999-c2cc-4bca-94ea-c9bcdf6a2daa/ “Masa at FII today said 9,000,000,000,000 of cumulative capex on 200,000,000 GPUs is very reasonable. He said, in fact, I think it may be too small.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:46:51 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/f5342d96-f9f8-4fb4-bb36-2d8782fe3d61/ https://minutesof.com/q/f5342d96-f9f8-4fb4-bb36-2d8782fe3d61/ “So just to put that in perspective, they added about 2,500,000,000 of new ARR in the quarter. That's like adding a Databricks in the quarter.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:46:51 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/54e32faa-2b0f-4c4e-8873-a20bcaecbf4a/ https://minutesof.com/q/54e32faa-2b0f-4c4e-8873-a20bcaecbf4a/ “These companies are all public, and there is something called return on invested capital. And ROIC has gone up for all of these companies since they ramped CapEx.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/535090c8-2068-4740-9d62-3f36e9c09c8b/ https://minutesof.com/q/535090c8-2068-4740-9d62-3f36e9c09c8b/ “There's only basically three places in The United States today where you can get a gigawatt of power to a single data center that's reliable enough, I.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/80043395-af77-4cbc-a5b7-76c39ad62953/ https://minutesof.com/q/80043395-af77-4cbc-a5b7-76c39ad62953/ “By the way, these models are commodities today, but I am suspicious once we get to scaling laws continue, GPT seven or eight literally cost $500,000,000,000 to trade.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/0f558539-ea5f-4335-90b1-230da6124058/ https://minutesof.com/q/0f558539-ea5f-4335-90b1-230da6124058/ “Mark Zuckerberg, Satya, and Sundar just told you in different ways, we are not even thinking about ROI.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/54b90048-1d13-4b23-ba66-674d4e8fa462/ https://minutesof.com/q/54b90048-1d13-4b23-ba66-674d4e8fa462/ “the idea that we're going to go through this phase shift with CapEx and revenues perfectly aligned and perfectly matched, right?” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Fri, 09 Aug 2024 00:27:40 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/aa553c92-c6b1-45b0-a73e-623c8d712a85/ https://minutesof.com/q/aa553c92-c6b1-45b0-a73e-623c8d712a85/ “if you look at the big four, they're gonna spend $220,000,000,000 this year on CapEx.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Fri, 09 Aug 2024 00:27:40 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/cdce91b6-49d4-463f-b95d-be9729abc4f8/ https://minutesof.com/q/cdce91b6-49d4-463f-b95d-be9729abc4f8/ “One, could the CapEx spend be ahead of itself? Which is what Sequoia mentioned and what the second piece of the Goldman piece is.” — Bill Gurley, BG2 Pod Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:24:05 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/9c92f33c-5ad1-45b6-ad4f-a24358c590e0/ https://minutesof.com/q/9c92f33c-5ad1-45b6-ad4f-a24358c590e0/ “Satya very quickly said this is a supply driven wave. And I think up to date, that is true. We're we're building ahead of demand.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/71831442-3ca1-433c-bb54-4260edd5816d/ https://minutesof.com/q/71831442-3ca1-433c-bb54-4260edd5816d/ “because all AI tools are being delivered as a service in the cloud, there's just a massive amount of CapEx happening.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Sat, 22 Jun 2024 17:50:33 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/86a9f483-87af-4eaa-bc23-de3775a5647e/ https://minutesof.com/q/86a9f483-87af-4eaa-bc23-de3775a5647e/ “they have to place orders five years in advance for these products. They have to go find power. They have to find data centers” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Tue, 11 Jun 2024 16:52:46 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/c6673b2c-4f7d-4be3-a26b-32b0ca5b9b66/ https://minutesof.com/q/c6673b2c-4f7d-4be3-a26b-32b0ca5b9b66/ “In fact, I think if people are gonna be critical of anything, a lot of people are looking at the total CapEx of the hyperscalers now at $200,000,000,000 and saying, when are you gonna get a return on the dollars that you're spending?” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 13:40:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/b7fd7c09-01f2-4d6c-8773-9ce75f450166/ https://minutesof.com/q/b7fd7c09-01f2-4d6c-8773-9ce75f450166/ “In two years, that company has gone from $22,000,000,000 in net income to $55,000,000,000 in net income. They've reduced their headcount from 85,000 people to 69,000 people.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Mon, 29 Apr 2024 21:09:39 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/95328126-a772-45b7-bfb4-88470ae2d513/ https://minutesof.com/q/95328126-a772-45b7-bfb4-88470ae2d513/ “I think there are four important ingredients to compete in this market. Number one, you have to have capital, and the leaders are spending $40,000,000,000 a year.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Mon, 29 Apr 2024 21:09:39 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/be3f41ef-475b-4d6a-936e-73cd87d6b72c/ https://minutesof.com/q/be3f41ef-475b-4d6a-936e-73cd87d6b72c/ “It's up because Susan Lee from Meta just told us yesterday that they're going to make huge future investments in infrastructure, read NVIDIA, in order to support all of these initiatives.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:54:25 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/408552e2-6237-4734-ba4f-fbcec9691df0/ https://minutesof.com/q/408552e2-6237-4734-ba4f-fbcec9691df0/ “It was overvalued despite the fact it was trading at 20 times earnings, its lowest multiple in history. Now it's up 25 or 30% after opening, the year down.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:54:25 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/723a23da-b306-4871-8338-07827779e928/ https://minutesof.com/q/723a23da-b306-4871-8338-07827779e928/ “Everybody said at the last end of last year, we had pulled forward all of the training. You know, this was dark fiber from Internet in 2001.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:54:25 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/cfd3f479-3c10-46cb-848d-e02ca3829c36/ https://minutesof.com/q/cfd3f479-3c10-46cb-848d-e02ca3829c36/ “We're going to deploy more compute on a global basis next year than all the compute ever deployed by humanity combined. That's how much compute is going to drive these training models.” — Brad Gerstner, FII Institute Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:01:13 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/1c159533-7002-43df-a5db-be3d8cc9d824/ https://minutesof.com/q/1c159533-7002-43df-a5db-be3d8cc9d824/ “and it's been very well established in multiple papers from both Google and Microsoft research that for every order of magnitude increase in the data you use to train an algorithm, the quality of the AI doubles.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/32e64b43-db5d-48ee-815c-272156cf2971/ https://minutesof.com/q/32e64b43-db5d-48ee-815c-272156cf2971/ “The single most predictive element of knowledge about AI quality is the quantity of data used to train the algorithm.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 ai capex https://minutesof.com/q/c6581532-cbbe-425f-bb38-995439fb7bb4/ https://minutesof.com/q/c6581532-cbbe-425f-bb38-995439fb7bb4/ “The only thing that has enabled the AI revolution that we're living through, which I think we're at the bottom of the first inning in, is one, we had the ability to do cloud computing, so just apply significantly more computational power to old algorithms, and then b, we had dramatically more data.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 ai capex