https://minutesof.com/on/blackwell/ Everyone on the record about blackwell: 28 verbatim quotes from 4 people, December 2024 to August 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:32:49 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/73641bf3-de15-41da-9158-47174de4c752/ https://minutesof.com/q/73641bf3-de15-41da-9158-47174de4c752/ “They're renting the exact same cluster, exact same size cluster, essentially identical in every way, b two hundreds, no no differences.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/95fedc70-6da2-46ad-b618-f4d20370df74/ https://minutesof.com/q/95fedc70-6da2-46ad-b618-f4d20370df74/ “And they had rented a cluster of several thousand black wells, And we'll just call it, you know, somewhere in the mid $2 per GPU hour.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/a7272d50-fda2-432c-aac5-59f78a8b24e6/ https://minutesof.com/q/a7272d50-fda2-432c-aac5-59f78a8b24e6/ “I emailed him. I like, hey, Jensen. You know, back in 2024, you said or back back when you launched Blackwell, said '24 twenty five x.” — Dylan Patel, WisdomTree in Europe Thu, 09 Jul 2026 06:16:39 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/be57f11d-1f2b-4256-80d2-16bbf2bed240/ https://minutesof.com/q/be57f11d-1f2b-4256-80d2-16bbf2bed240/ “In DeepSeek v three, Blackwell is 30 x faster than Hopper on on somewhere on the continuum.” — Dylan Patel, WisdomTree in Europe Thu, 09 Jul 2026 06:16:39 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/17ee08e0-f212-40ab-9204-64e701a10690/ https://minutesof.com/q/17ee08e0-f212-40ab-9204-64e701a10690/ “Jensen, when he originally launched Blackwell, had claimed it would be a 25x improvement. And at the time, no one believed him. Right? It's Jensen, right?” — Dylan Patel, WisdomTree in Europe Thu, 09 Jul 2026 06:16:39 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/8d098967-35ce-4277-b237-0688cd59c6c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/8d098967-35ce-4277-b237-0688cd59c6c6/ “hopper's now at 5%, but black belt's still 10 to 15%. Wow. Right? Actually started out higher than that. Sure. And when a new generation comes out, it's gonna be higher than 15%.” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/ad7101a5-4fa1-44cc-87eb-3fdf8077feb6/ https://minutesof.com/q/ad7101a5-4fa1-44cc-87eb-3fdf8077feb6/ “We know that scaling laws for pre training are intact, And this means the Blackwell models are going to be amazing.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/08ba00ed-4f3b-440e-aaff-4254135f5030/ https://minutesof.com/q/08ba00ed-4f3b-440e-aaff-4254135f5030/ “I think the first Blackwell model will come from xAI. And the reason for that is just according to Jensen, no one builds data centers faster than Elon.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/4a6d6767-2e27-43f3-b3fb-c234a6bc6a18/ https://minutesof.com/q/4a6d6767-2e27-43f3-b3fb-c234a6bc6a18/ “One, we will see the first models trained on Blackwell in early twenty twenty six. I think the first Blackwell model will come from xAI.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/de1ebc6f-3f2b-4cbb-8fe4-1efe5134aead/ https://minutesof.com/q/de1ebc6f-3f2b-4cbb-8fe4-1efe5134aead/ “Had reasoning not come along, there would have been no AI progress from mid twenty twenty four through essentially Gemini three.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/c48e328c-4021-4238-a1af-b71e7630eaec/ https://minutesof.com/q/c48e328c-4021-4238-a1af-b71e7630eaec/ “Had reasoning not come along, there would have been no AI progress from mid twenty twenty four through essentially” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/2126dc4a-e2be-49ce-8c28-495ab2897322/ https://minutesof.com/q/2126dc4a-e2be-49ce-8c28-495ab2897322/ “Had reasoning not come along, there would have been no AI progress from mid twenty twenty four through essentially Gemini three. There would have been none.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/1bf31cf6-f2eb-44b4-a151-5c78b11a71ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/1bf31cf6-f2eb-44b4-a151-5c78b11a71ae/ “Had reasoning not come along, there would have been no AI progress from mid twenty twenty four through essentially Gemini three. There would have been none. Everything would have stalled.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/b0602eef-8453-42a9-b715-c5cf316b435f/ https://minutesof.com/q/b0602eef-8453-42a9-b715-c5cf316b435f/ “Goes from round numbers, 30 kilowatts, which is 30 American homes to 130 kilowatts, which is 130 American homes.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/781366db-4e57-4c07-85ff-eba003666bd6/ https://minutesof.com/q/781366db-4e57-4c07-85ff-eba003666bd6/ “The rack goes from weighing round numbers, a thousand pounds to 3,000 pounds. Goes from round numbers, 30 kilowatts, which is 30 American homes to 130 kilowatts, which is 130 American homes.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/f04afcff-68fc-4287-b5cd-9888a7f33126/ https://minutesof.com/q/f04afcff-68fc-4287-b5cd-9888a7f33126/ “Going from hopper to Blackwell, first you go from air cooled to liquid cooled. The rack goes from weighing round numbers, a thousand pounds to 3,000 pounds.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/b5e8baa6-e2a8-44f5-8f5c-2b0a33c4a335/ https://minutesof.com/q/b5e8baa6-e2a8-44f5-8f5c-2b0a33c4a335/ “And the reason for that is it was by far the most complex product transition we've ever gone through in technology. Going from hopper to Blackwell, first you go from air cooled to liquid cooled.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/7eaa498f-3259-4e8c-a196-98d19ea3ec72/ https://minutesof.com/q/7eaa498f-3259-4e8c-a196-98d19ea3ec72/ “But at other points, you can have a 10x performance TCO benefit from going with a more expensive Blackwell server than a cheaper H100 server.” — Dylan Patel, Open Compute Project Thu, 23 Oct 2025 06:01:19 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/a16842d1-124f-447a-89d3-73aa00b75632/ https://minutesof.com/q/a16842d1-124f-447a-89d3-73aa00b75632/ “NVIDIA learning from the issues on Hopper, with Blackwell, they actually doubled the time for system level test.” — Dylan Patel, Together AI Fri, 03 Oct 2025 20:23:30 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/e17fa153-5a23-488d-99aa-a4fe4fc4a705/ https://minutesof.com/q/e17fa153-5a23-488d-99aa-a4fe4fc4a705/ “for the general purpose user, yeah, you're going to have another doubling of performance potentially on the tables over the next year.” — Dylan Patel, Together AI Fri, 03 Oct 2025 20:23:30 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/1220feb8-33a2-4114-958d-7e559ad3806a/ https://minutesof.com/q/1220feb8-33a2-4114-958d-7e559ad3806a/ “I see another 50% to doubling in the cards, just from the fact that there is so much low hanging fruit or performance left on the table if you are using the general open libraries, right? Whether it's cuDNN, VLM, SGLANG, all these other things,” — Dylan Patel, Together AI Fri, 03 Oct 2025 20:23:30 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/ec5cbc83-8dcb-4132-b787-4f7c4639cd91/ https://minutesof.com/q/ec5cbc83-8dcb-4132-b787-4f7c4639cd91/ “Even Hopper in January 24 to December 2024, you still had like a 30%, 40% performance improvement. And likewise for Blackwell, you've seen a similar sort of improvement, right?” — Dylan Patel, Together AI Fri, 03 Oct 2025 20:23:30 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/89ddcb92-6d43-43ed-8e99-976561050d18/ https://minutesof.com/q/89ddcb92-6d43-43ed-8e99-976561050d18/ “Now with Blackwell, there's actually even a third tier of memory, which is memory within the Tensor Core.” — Dylan Patel, Together AI Fri, 03 Oct 2025 20:23:30 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/7a1b8698-ea50-4724-a073-b8e5df30f151/ https://minutesof.com/q/7a1b8698-ea50-4724-a073-b8e5df30f151/ “while cost is only up, know, call it 50% or 60% or 70% versus Hopper, the performance is well north of 2x, right?” — Dylan Patel, Together AI Fri, 03 Oct 2025 20:23:30 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/aee2b073-7d63-44ce-bd48-38a445a90dca/ https://minutesof.com/q/aee2b073-7d63-44ce-bd48-38a445a90dca/ “China is a $50,000,000,000 market for NVIDIA unto itself. So I believe that the probability they're gonna be able to sell chips China is north of 50%.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 28 Aug 2025 17:12:24 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/879abc84-3fdc-4dd7-9b63-baf6f6541b7c/ https://minutesof.com/q/879abc84-3fdc-4dd7-9b63-baf6f6541b7c/ “But now, like, Blackwell, NVIDIA's pitching 10 to 15 x improvement in cost. It's like, well, you know, they're massaging the numbers marketing.” — Dylan Patel, Unsupervised Learning: With Jacob Effron Tue, 21 Jan 2025 14:00:12 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/279cdc86-ddf1-4907-8bcc-3cb1c5004ac8/ https://minutesof.com/q/279cdc86-ddf1-4907-8bcc-3cb1c5004ac8/ “At least that's what Blackwell is, and we'll see what Ruben does. But, you know, five x plus in a single year for performance TCO is an insane pace.” — Bill Gurley, Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 blackwell https://minutesof.com/q/c310de9b-dc1b-4540-a8b1-6178b1463f48/ https://minutesof.com/q/c310de9b-dc1b-4540-a8b1-6178b1463f48/ “with Blackwell, not only is it way, way, way faster, anywhere from 10 to 15 times on really large models for inference because they've optimized it for very large language models.” — Bill Gurley, Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 blackwell