https://minutesof.com/on/capex/ Everyone on the record about capex: 39 verbatim quotes from 5 people, January 2022 to August 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a link to… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:32:50 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/19475f58-3551-48c1-8f14-1441b116b5aa/ https://minutesof.com/q/19475f58-3551-48c1-8f14-1441b116b5aa/ “In the modeling that we do, we have about $11,000,000,000,000 of CapEx from 2024 to 2029. Total. Total.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/924c9e94-b365-4a18-9a8d-a5628329ee05/ https://minutesof.com/q/924c9e94-b365-4a18-9a8d-a5628329ee05/ “No one is generating that much cash from the business yet. Right? Hyperscalers, they funded all of the growth up until now. Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/98c3bd9c-c70c-401a-b52d-19dfc1b20e62/ https://minutesof.com/q/98c3bd9c-c70c-401a-b52d-19dfc1b20e62/ “So if you're at 3 or $4,000,000,000,000 of CapEx, where does all this cash come from?” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/e39a19f2-49bb-43b6-a901-e9fbd413a084/ https://minutesof.com/q/e39a19f2-49bb-43b6-a901-e9fbd413a084/ “So to enable, let's say, that 100 gigawatts by 2030 or let's even like let's even like pare it down to 2028 where it's like 3 or $4,000,000,000,000 of CapEx across all of these items.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/fd6d2eb3-da00-477c-8bfe-4ac144bc044d/ https://minutesof.com/q/fd6d2eb3-da00-477c-8bfe-4ac144bc044d/ “As we go out into '28, it's gonna be more than $2,000,000,000,000. The labs are also taking an increasing percentage of this.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/87380cb5-ef13-4f9a-b24b-646ce43d9ba9/ https://minutesof.com/q/87380cb5-ef13-4f9a-b24b-646ce43d9ba9/ “As we go forward into the future, the the numbers for computer ballooning, right, we're at, you know, you know, a little bit over a trillion dollars of CapEx this year.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/736a31d5-7520-41fc-a660-bf0bf6e99fde/ https://minutesof.com/q/736a31d5-7520-41fc-a660-bf0bf6e99fde/ “And a very important distinction we will come to is whether or not that build out is funded out of debt or cash flows. It's a critical distinction for AI.” — Gavin Baker, Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/4af47fe2-687c-49e3-b300-56416c83aa90/ https://minutesof.com/q/4af47fe2-687c-49e3-b300-56416c83aa90/ “The chip plant in TSMC's chip had chip plant in Arizona, Foxconn, the the number of companies that we've inspired from Taiwan to to partner with us to build factories here.” — Jensen Huang, Associated Press Tue, 16 Jun 2026 20:50:13 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/eb584a54-7b84-4ddf-a4ea-1d28f9797588/ https://minutesof.com/q/eb584a54-7b84-4ddf-a4ea-1d28f9797588/ “We're now in the process of reinventing all of that, which is the reason why over the course of the next ten years, we're going to be building tens of trillions of dollars of new computers to replace the old computers that we built over the last sixty years.” — Jensen Huang, Associated Press Tue, 16 Jun 2026 20:50:13 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/7fc89112-8507-4b35-920f-772137efbe56/ https://minutesof.com/q/7fc89112-8507-4b35-920f-772137efbe56/ “If you told me five years ago that these, mag seven would become worth $3,000,000,000,000 and then turn around and take their free cash flow from 50 to a 100,000,000,000 a year down near zero because they were gonna spend it all on CapEx, I'd have been like, no way. Like, I wouldn't have believed it.” — Bill Gurley, The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/0a13c4a1-fadd-4bf8-9861-e3eecd9424c7/ https://minutesof.com/q/0a13c4a1-fadd-4bf8-9861-e3eecd9424c7/ “80% of our capital has been in memory and logic and compute, you know, companies like Nvidia, companies like SK Hynix, companies like CoreWeave, etcetera. And so that's consumed a lot of capital.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Mon, 04 May 2026 19:16:21 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/a7bb132e-83bc-40b6-b700-cf2f048e334f/ https://minutesof.com/q/a7bb132e-83bc-40b6-b700-cf2f048e334f/ “Google will have no cash flow next year because they're they see AI so clearly, and they know that they need to spend every dollar they make on compute,” — Dylan Patel, Matthew Berman Mon, 09 Mar 2026 17:07:47 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/6b912563-fb9e-4421-a025-79fd80dd6653/ https://minutesof.com/q/6b912563-fb9e-4421-a025-79fd80dd6653/ “I will tell you, I have a couple different answers to this, which I think are quite interesting. First of all, the Mag seven formerly were creating, I don't know, $3,400,000,000,000 in cash flow.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/eac21179-024f-4ae9-8db2-3eee00972211/ https://minutesof.com/q/eac21179-024f-4ae9-8db2-3eee00972211/ “If we start looking at like, hey, this year, Google spending 2 Amazon spending $200,000,000,000, Google spending a $180,000,000,000 on on AI infrastructure primarily. Right?” — Dylan Patel, Latent Space Thu, 26 Feb 2026 21:15:18 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/b206ab39-c11b-4186-80e2-7930fb9768d1/ https://minutesof.com/q/b206ab39-c11b-4186-80e2-7930fb9768d1/ “That $50,000,000,000 of COGS needs to burn on infra, which cost roughly with if a five if you're talking about five year depreciation, call it $250,000,000,000, right, of infra Yeah. For a $100,000,000,000 of revenue.” — Dylan Patel, The MAD Podcast with Matt Turck Thu, 05 Feb 2026 13:30:16 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/a42225be-7133-4459-8e20-e73d48721800/ https://minutesof.com/q/a42225be-7133-4459-8e20-e73d48721800/ “That $50,000,000,000 of COGS needs to burn on infra, which cost roughly with if a five if you're talking about five year depreciation, call it $250,000,000,000,” — Dylan Patel, The MAD Podcast with Matt Turck Thu, 05 Feb 2026 13:30:16 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/0514621a-0bad-4693-aafd-f44de9e45c7b/ https://minutesof.com/q/0514621a-0bad-4693-aafd-f44de9e45c7b/ “OpenAI is gonna have 18 gigawatts or 16 gigawatts by the end of twenty eight, and they're gonna be able to pay for it. And that's like, well, that's $300,000,000,000 of spend.” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/2040160c-48c9-44cd-91a1-2e262a1544e9/ https://minutesof.com/q/2040160c-48c9-44cd-91a1-2e262a1544e9/ “Now if they're doing a 100 to 200,000,000,000 in revenue in 2829, then now we're in the zone of responsible.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 17:51:39 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/62a700d7-3c7b-4795-91fd-596303f72565/ https://minutesof.com/q/62a700d7-3c7b-4795-91fd-596303f72565/ “And if they're doing that and you spread the CapEx out, so we talked about 1,400,000,000,000, half of that's gonna be borne by their partners.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 17:51:39 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/01ffca9f-8e11-4998-80d2-adc9447c7130/ https://minutesof.com/q/01ffca9f-8e11-4998-80d2-adc9447c7130/ “Tech companies are investing over the course of the next four or five years, it's about 10 times the size of the Manhattan Project on an inflation adjusted or GDP adjusted basis.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Fri, 31 Oct 2025 23:11:44 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/1a8f6d20-9f02-4359-896d-f54abf9f4e5e/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a8f6d20-9f02-4359-896d-f54abf9f4e5e/ “OpenAI's revenues are still a reported $13,000,000,000 in 2025. And Sam, on your live stream this week, you talked about this massive commitment to compute, right? 1,400,000,000,000 over the next four or five years” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Fri, 31 Oct 2025 23:11:44 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/b3245cbb-ccb0-4af1-8480-c9d4f7170c7d/ https://minutesof.com/q/b3245cbb-ccb0-4af1-8480-c9d4f7170c7d/ “The consensus for the banks is $360,000,000,000 of spend next year across all of them. And my number is closer to, like it's, like, $45,500.” — Dylan Patel, a16z Mon, 22 Sep 2025 13:01:51 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/58f9ff51-18ce-48d6-97b3-28e16f14ea80/ https://minutesof.com/q/58f9ff51-18ce-48d6-97b3-28e16f14ea80/ “Jensen said, you know, when he was on our pod last year, he said, we think the build out between now and the end of the decade's $2,000,000,000,000 of total compute.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 28 Aug 2025 17:12:24 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/8f99a7b9-a139-456b-b5be-913d28f9bdd8/ https://minutesof.com/q/8f99a7b9-a139-456b-b5be-913d28f9bdd8/ “NVIDIA's revenue this year is gonna be, like, over $200,000,000,000, and next year expects over 300,000,000,000 plus Google's gonna spend, like, $50,000,000,000 on TPU data centers.” — Dylan Patel, a16z Mon, 18 Aug 2025 18:26:43 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/119203f3-2761-4bf3-a619-aaad40c2f71a/ https://minutesof.com/q/119203f3-2761-4bf3-a619-aaad40c2f71a/ “So no one is trying to make with these $10,000,000,000 data centers, they're not trying to make chat models. Right?” — Dylan Patel, Alex Kantrowitz Wed, 23 Apr 2025 16:30:06 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/e5ca5eb9-cc98-492b-8356-ed620a8c3c70/ https://minutesof.com/q/e5ca5eb9-cc98-492b-8356-ed620a8c3c70/ “I mean, the list of companies, I think we're up to a trillion, a trillion and $0.5 of reinvestment.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Wed, 12 Mar 2025 13:00:04 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/7248cc4c-a766-4898-a77f-0a473c94f72a/ https://minutesof.com/q/7248cc4c-a766-4898-a77f-0a473c94f72a/ “A log I e, it takes 10 x more investment to get the next iteration. Well, 10 x more investment, you know, you know, going from 30,000,000 to 300,000,000, 300,000,000 to 3,000,000,000 is relevant.” — Bill Gurley, Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/6de51955-08c4-41cb-b6a1-1ee2e37ef67e/ https://minutesof.com/q/6de51955-08c4-41cb-b6a1-1ee2e37ef67e/ “if you think that infrastructure expenses are going to grow at 30% a year, then I think you have to believe that the underlying inference revenues, right, both on the consumer side and the enterprise side are gonna grow somewhere in that range as well.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:12:56 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/1f05e933-62cf-41bc-8ccd-b022653c4c8b/ https://minutesof.com/q/1f05e933-62cf-41bc-8ccd-b022653c4c8b/ “It all comes down ultimately to the revenues that are generated by the people who are making the purchases of the GPUs. Right?” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:12:56 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/857cfae0-7c82-485a-b86b-ff7f2b2886b5/ https://minutesof.com/q/857cfae0-7c82-485a-b86b-ff7f2b2886b5/ “he said, but we're also going to have a trillion dollars of CPU replacement, of data center replacement workloads over the course of the next four years.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:12:56 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/168ba19f-f3d8-48fd-bbbd-632f2cb46217/ https://minutesof.com/q/168ba19f-f3d8-48fd-bbbd-632f2cb46217/ “There was a podcast recently where they kind of flipped everything on their head and they said, well, if we're not doing that anymore, it's way better because we can just move on to inference, which is getting cheaper and you won't have to spend all this CapEx.” — Bill Gurley, Bg2 Pod Thu, 12 Dec 2024 18:20:19 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/0818b7a9-f534-4cb5-9037-b7de373c9007/ https://minutesof.com/q/0818b7a9-f534-4cb5-9037-b7de373c9007/ “Amazon spent over a $100,000,000,000 on AWS, invested for over eight years before they saw profitability in that business.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:24:05 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/743c4b3d-d172-40cc-bd69-aa8649d5a14e/ https://minutesof.com/q/743c4b3d-d172-40cc-bd69-aa8649d5a14e/ “In fact, I think if people are gonna be critical of anything, a lot of people are looking at the total CapEx of the hyperscalers now at $200,000,000,000 and saying, when are you gonna get a return on the dollars that you're spending?” — Bill Gurley, Bg2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 14:22:07 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/e1a04006-788c-440c-96ca-495cf037020f/ https://minutesof.com/q/e1a04006-788c-440c-96ca-495cf037020f/ “And over the course of the next four to five years, we'll have 2,000,000,000,000 of data centers powering software around the world and it will all be accelerated compute.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:20:31 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/d8e7bd22-8bfa-4a59-976b-04a457353f4b/ https://minutesof.com/q/d8e7bd22-8bfa-4a59-976b-04a457353f4b/ “We're gonna launch more. We're gonna deploy more compute in 2024 than in all previous years combined.” — Brad Gerstner, Joe Lonsdale Wed, 25 Oct 2023 18:32:55 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/7a681575-6b62-4f6b-85d9-b4d3dbcbb0f8/ https://minutesof.com/q/7a681575-6b62-4f6b-85d9-b4d3dbcbb0f8/ “Taiwan Semi, their 2022 CapEx is going to be many multiples of 2019. 2021 and 2022, they'll spend more than they did in the preceding five years.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/5f67ed17-6c25-42ca-bee5-a83df3dad7b2/ https://minutesof.com/q/5f67ed17-6c25-42ca-bee5-a83df3dad7b2/ “Taiwan Semi, their 2022 CapEx is going to be many multiples of 2019. 2021 and 2022, they'll spend more than they did in the preceding five years. So there is a massive supply response coming.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/b84158be-ed2c-48d3-9a32-4f05c66c9f6f/ https://minutesof.com/q/b84158be-ed2c-48d3-9a32-4f05c66c9f6f/ “From 1999 to 2019, they spent $62,000,000,000 on CapEx. They're going spend $87,000,000,000 in 2020 and 2021. That's crazy.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 capex https://minutesof.com/q/8e03624f-6573-45dc-bc4b-f5a969338ad1/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e03624f-6573-45dc-bc4b-f5a969338ad1/ “It's not a comment on Amazon. It's just a comment on the supplier response. They have spent more money on CapEx in the last two years than they did in the preceding twenty years.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 capex