https://minutesof.com/on/compute/ Everyone on the record about compute: 17 verbatim quotes from 4 people, October 2023 to August 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a link… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:32:52 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/ac53b829-20a0-4bb2-b3f9-a421576842e5/ https://minutesof.com/q/ac53b829-20a0-4bb2-b3f9-a421576842e5/ “You've got Anthropic OpenAI are taking as much as 40% to 50% of compute next year. And the centralization doesn't look like it's slowing down or stopping. In fact, it looks like it's only accelerating.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/5a0b99f9-6108-445e-b01a-a58dfb695aae/ https://minutesof.com/q/5a0b99f9-6108-445e-b01a-a58dfb695aae/ “they put a vast amount of compute into the market overnight, and it wasn't even really a blip. It was like the market just utterly absorbed it.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/f9d8be14-a3e0-4d46-93f0-a74b86319592/ https://minutesof.com/q/f9d8be14-a3e0-4d46-93f0-a74b86319592/ “AI, even if you put a harness on it, even if you do the chain of thought, even if you have multiple agents, it's probabilistic that it is recomputing the answer each time.” — Gavin Baker, Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/cf0664cd-4be9-48d0-b17c-787e1d380449/ https://minutesof.com/q/cf0664cd-4be9-48d0-b17c-787e1d380449/ “And the nature of AI just as AI eats the world, silicon is going to eat the world because it's so much more computationally intensive than deterministic software written by humans.” — Gavin Baker, Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/e9a8fba3-1f79-4310-9c95-0d513f20374b/ https://minutesof.com/q/e9a8fba3-1f79-4310-9c95-0d513f20374b/ “by 2030, just OpenAI and Anthropic will have over 100 gigawatts combined, and then you'll add Meta and Google and so on and so forth.” — Dylan Patel, Sequoia Capital Tue, 30 Jun 2026 12:00:25 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/0a0e203d-8568-41d2-93f0-c438e34d8d7d/ https://minutesof.com/q/0a0e203d-8568-41d2-93f0-c438e34d8d7d/ “So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained. I'm gonna make up a new number. URR, unconstrained revenue.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/11b9d32f-6e26-4a8c-b4ca-233ed1e5e9c1/ https://minutesof.com/q/11b9d32f-6e26-4a8c-b4ca-233ed1e5e9c1/ “I think they would be doing materially more a hundred, one hundred and fifty, maybe 200,000,000,000. So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/2fcc4de9-3c7e-4579-9729-0bca59cb7e78/ https://minutesof.com/q/2fcc4de9-3c7e-4579-9729-0bca59cb7e78/ “So I think they would be doing materially more a hundred, one hundred and fifty, maybe 200,000,000,000. So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/69b97c71-6f05-4d9c-a31d-de2f4939e642/ https://minutesof.com/q/69b97c71-6f05-4d9c-a31d-de2f4939e642/ “Oracle gave a guidance of four years. They told everyone what their revenue is gonna be for the next four years. No company has ever done that.” — Dylan Patel, David Ondrej Thu, 18 Sep 2025 16:14:25 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/794ae51e-d9a2-4787-9473-c5976f458ff5/ https://minutesof.com/q/794ae51e-d9a2-4787-9473-c5976f458ff5/ “It is literally many gigawatts. And then in addition, right, not just about securing OpenAI ridiculous amounts of compute, but what what was really interesting is Oracle gave a guidance of four years.” — Dylan Patel, David Ondrej Thu, 18 Sep 2025 16:14:25 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/c0b52752-79e9-4f45-919f-7a388d7cab11/ https://minutesof.com/q/c0b52752-79e9-4f45-919f-7a388d7cab11/ “If you look at this one out of Elon talking about the X dot AI goal is 50,000,000 in units of H100 equivalent.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:11:15 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/7915177a-c38e-49f6-8c41-f1704a1047cb/ https://minutesof.com/q/7915177a-c38e-49f6-8c41-f1704a1047cb/ “On top of that, we learned, you know, they are massively compute constrained right now. So you've seen some tweets about this, people that are, you know, getting server delay and all this stuff” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Wed, 05 Feb 2025 23:13:28 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/c35e5045-0094-4d11-8d15-94e56f582513/ https://minutesof.com/q/c35e5045-0094-4d11-8d15-94e56f582513/ “you add up the the cost of a compute cluster with 50,000 plus hoppers and it's gonna be over $1,000,000,000.” — David Sacks, All-In Podcast Fri, 31 Jan 2025 21:52:00 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/a4ede3f9-51af-4927-b48a-d925bdf7fed7/ https://minutesof.com/q/a4ede3f9-51af-4927-b48a-d925bdf7fed7/ “Dylan Patel, who's leading semiconductor analyst, has estimated that DeepSeac has about 50,000 hoppers. And specifically, he said they have about 10,000 h one hundreds, They have 10,000 h eight hundreds and 30,000 h twenties.” — David Sacks, All-In Podcast Fri, 31 Jan 2025 21:52:00 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/3bd7853d-7fb5-407a-9ca0-51a9419c33ce/ https://minutesof.com/q/3bd7853d-7fb5-407a-9ca0-51a9419c33ce/ “China can be centralized enough to compete with each individual US lab. They could have just as many flops in '25 and '26 if they decided they were scale built. Right? Just from foreign chips” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Wed, 02 Oct 2024 14:59:36 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/cfd3f479-3c10-46cb-848d-e02ca3829c36/ https://minutesof.com/q/cfd3f479-3c10-46cb-848d-e02ca3829c36/ “We're going to deploy more compute on a global basis next year than all the compute ever deployed by humanity combined. That's how much compute is going to drive these training models.” — Brad Gerstner, FII Institute Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:01:13 +0000 compute https://minutesof.com/q/d8e7bd22-8bfa-4a59-976b-04a457353f4b/ https://minutesof.com/q/d8e7bd22-8bfa-4a59-976b-04a457353f4b/ “We're gonna launch more. We're gonna deploy more compute in 2024 than in all previous years combined.” — Brad Gerstner, Joe Lonsdale Wed, 25 Oct 2023 18:32:55 +0000 compute