cycles: everyone on the record — The Minutes https://minutesof.com/on/cycles/ Everyone on the record about cycles: 11 verbatim quotes from 3 people, January 2019 to May 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a link to… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:32:54 +0000 Howard Marks: Marks explains that while underlying progress is gradual, prices fluctuate wildly around trend l https://minutesof.com/q/7ea46ef1-d124-4d2c-b76c-4e15e8785e86/ https://minutesof.com/q/7ea46ef1-d124-4d2c-b76c-4e15e8785e86/ “So the point is that that whereas, the underlying thing progresses gradually, the price fluctuates wildly around that trend line, and the main reason is, the fluctuation of psychology.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 cycles Howard Marks: Marks observes S&P returns almost never fall between eight and twelve percent despite ten percen https://minutesof.com/q/f5e7c1a3-da76-4c75-8600-c8b4c140e3b5/ https://minutesof.com/q/f5e7c1a3-da76-4c75-8600-c8b4c140e3b5/ “And not only is that an interesting phenomenon to think about, but even more so, the fact that the return on the S and P, which averages 10, is almost never between eight and twelve.” — Howard Marks, Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 cycles Howard Marks: Marks reframes cycles not as ups and downs but as excesses and corrections around a trend line. https://minutesof.com/q/8018c4cf-55b2-4c56-895e-c62c37db5633/ https://minutesof.com/q/8018c4cf-55b2-4c56-895e-c62c37db5633/ “So rather than thinking of cycles as ups and downs, which I think most people do, think of them as excesses and corrections, excesses and corrections. Fluctuations around the trend line.” — Howard Marks, Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 cycles Howard Marks: Marks reframes economic cycles as excesses and corrections around trend lines rather than simple https://minutesof.com/q/37841e74-af02-4eba-8329-112c7643ae0a/ https://minutesof.com/q/37841e74-af02-4eba-8329-112c7643ae0a/ “So rather than thinking of cycles as ups and downs, which I think most people do, think of them as excesses and corrections, excesses and corrections.” — Howard Marks, Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 cycles Howard Marks: Marks defines market cycles as excesses and corrections rather than simple ups and downs. https://minutesof.com/q/d18bdee4-eb9b-478a-a5d2-1c295994fa90/ https://minutesof.com/q/d18bdee4-eb9b-478a-a5d2-1c295994fa90/ “The way to think of of a pattern of of cycle is excesses and corrections. So so for example, let's look here. What's happening here?” — Howard Marks, The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 cycles Howard Marks: Marks says investor psychology swings from flawless to hopeless while reality fluctuates more mo https://minutesof.com/q/a4009199-2a44-4e39-87b6-bd1f93442af6/ https://minutesof.com/q/a4009199-2a44-4e39-87b6-bd1f93442af6/ “in real life things fluctuate between pretty good and not so hot but in the minds of investors, they go from flawless to hopeless.” — Howard Marks, The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 cycles David Friedberg: Friedberg argues ag tech's seasonal cycles fundamentally differ from enterprise software, cau https://minutesof.com/q/2b8fa37c-bc03-41fb-a408-ba32d5b14360/ https://minutesof.com/q/2b8fa37c-bc03-41fb-a408-ba32d5b14360/ “In ag tech, you have seasonal cycles that you're kind of stuck to, so you don't get the results for a while.” — David Friedberg, The Modern Acre Tue, 04 Jun 2024 12:55:12 +0000 cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley says venture industry is structurally flawed on cyclicality and fixing it requires rewriti https://minutesof.com/q/c8817200-fb1e-452d-be22-fceea7612169/ https://minutesof.com/q/c8817200-fb1e-452d-be22-fceea7612169/ “You'd have to rewrite the standard GPLP agreement, I think. I'll spend more time thinking about that later, but it is structurally flawed, I think, from a cyclicality standpoint.” — Bill Gurley, Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Apr 2024 08:00:00 +0000 cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley says profitable companies at IPO dropped from 90% in downturns to 5% by 2020-2021. https://minutesof.com/q/2104d574-1ccc-4cf1-b5f6-ad86fdff8778/ https://minutesof.com/q/2104d574-1ccc-4cf1-b5f6-ad86fdff8778/ “Right? And so in really dark times, the percentage of companies IPOing their profitable is like 90. But by 2020, 2021, that number is 5%.” — Bill Gurley, Tim Ferriss Thu, 26 Jan 2023 19:45:00 +0000 cycles Howard Marks: Marks identifies too much money chasing too few deals as the seven worst words in investing. https://minutesof.com/q/24cf4c4c-1739-4e98-aba9-4b4c1ed9993c/ https://minutesof.com/q/24cf4c4c-1739-4e98-aba9-4b4c1ed9993c/ “Now remember, the four worst words in the world were, it's different this time, the seven worst words in the world are too much money chasing too few deals.” — Howard Marks, Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 cycles Howard Marks: Marks identifies it's different this time as the four worst words in the world for investors. https://minutesof.com/q/d158d96f-5cea-429f-bdea-da9708393ef7/ https://minutesof.com/q/d158d96f-5cea-429f-bdea-da9708393ef7/ “If you say to them, you know, well that happened twenty and forty years ago and it ended badly, what they say is they use the four worst words in the world.” — Howard Marks, Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 cycles