https://minutesof.com/on/forecast/ Everyone on the record about forecast: 59 verbatim quotes from 10 people, December 2017 to August 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:32:58 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/4cbaa82b-c0e1-4873-acdc-21f48e9c7e7f/ https://minutesof.com/q/4cbaa82b-c0e1-4873-acdc-21f48e9c7e7f/ “In fact, the U.S. Treasury recently estimated that TGA balances could peak around $1.025 trillion by late April, amid tax season inflows, likely resulting in a notable drawdown in reserves.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/989b070c-1a42-45f6-aa78-1a5169a38365/ https://minutesof.com/q/989b070c-1a42-45f6-aa78-1a5169a38365/ “For the reasons I outlined a moment ago, I expect overall inflation to decline to around 3-1/4 percent by year-end, then continue on a glide path toward our 2 percent goal in 2027 and land on target in 2028.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/f9750852-defc-432d-82a6-9427464672e3/ https://minutesof.com/q/f9750852-defc-432d-82a6-9427464672e3/ “With growth running modestly above my estimate of its potential rate of 2 percent, I expect the unemployment rate to edge down very gradually to 4 percent in 2028.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/2cbf8d64-8bdf-4bdc-be2d-9955d918e6e2/ https://minutesof.com/q/2cbf8d64-8bdf-4bdc-be2d-9955d918e6e2/ “Looking ahead, I expect real GDP growth to be around 2 to 2-1/4 percent this year and over the next two years.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/aec4dd09-0b46-40fa-a73b-cfb2110bf9ca/ https://minutesof.com/q/aec4dd09-0b46-40fa-a73b-cfb2110bf9ca/ “My estimate is that increased tariffs have contributed about one half to three quarters of a percentage point to the current inflation rate.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/b502edb7-d1c4-468d-b134-843af44fcff0/ https://minutesof.com/q/b502edb7-d1c4-468d-b134-843af44fcff0/ “And I expect PCE inflation to come in between 3 and 3-1/4 percent this year, before declining to around 2-1/2 percent next year, and reaching 2 percent in 2027.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/addfcb3f-d598-4e9e-8e59-50bb3d885890/ https://minutesof.com/q/addfcb3f-d598-4e9e-8e59-50bb3d885890/ “I anticipate inflation will come in between 3 and 3-1/2 percent in 2025, and then fall back to about 2-1/2 percent next year before reaching 2 percent in 2027.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/61eafb8f-d4ec-4b85-a0e1-43e32100d1c7/ https://minutesof.com/q/61eafb8f-d4ec-4b85-a0e1-43e32100d1c7/ “With this slowdown in growth, I expect the unemployment rate to rise to around 4-1/2 percent by the end of this year.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/59635bdb-6a77-471d-bb42-d107064b762f/ https://minutesof.com/q/59635bdb-6a77-471d-bb42-d107064b762f/ “As a result, I expect real GDP growth this year to be about 1 percent.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/07620c11-1516-4239-b121-256af5477b84/ https://minutesof.com/q/07620c11-1516-4239-b121-256af5477b84/ “And with the effects of tariffs on inflation waning later in the year, I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-1/2 percent in 2026, then fall to 2 percent in 2027.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/74a9dac1-cbb8-465b-8098-f2bc918d105c/ https://minutesof.com/q/74a9dac1-cbb8-465b-8098-f2bc918d105c/ “With this deceleration of real GDP, I expect the unemployment rate to rise to around 4-1/2 percent by the end of this year.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/e4905a54-6578-40f6-9b0d-8051a99a58ee/ https://minutesof.com/q/e4905a54-6578-40f6-9b0d-8051a99a58ee/ “Consequently, with growth around its trend pace, I expect the unemployment rate will remain in its recent range of 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/c9e6ca7e-839e-4893-a88a-169901e07ad9/ https://minutesof.com/q/c9e6ca7e-839e-4893-a88a-169901e07ad9/ “I expect real GDP growth this year will slow considerably from last year’s pace, to just over 1 percent.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/da7fd3b0-4cc6-462d-bcfe-d933dcf61ca0/ https://minutesof.com/q/da7fd3b0-4cc6-462d-bcfe-d933dcf61ca0/ “I expect real GDP to grow about 2-1/2 percent this year, supported by stimulus from fiscal policy, favorable financial conditions, and robust investments in artificial intelligence.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/e9585464-0edc-4a16-b5d4-cae2204f5302/ https://minutesof.com/q/e9585464-0edc-4a16-b5d4-cae2204f5302/ “I expect overall inflation to come in at around 2-3/4 percent this year, before reaching our longer-run 2 percent target in 2027.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/3a4424d0-1ff0-4768-a6ea-216f82f1087d/ https://minutesof.com/q/3a4424d0-1ff0-4768-a6ea-216f82f1087d/ “Looking ahead, my base case is for inflation to be about 3 percent this year, before dropping to our 2 percent target in 2027” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/7068b41e-435d-46d8-ab91-ee08b96d80d7/ https://minutesof.com/q/7068b41e-435d-46d8-ab91-ee08b96d80d7/ “I expect real GDP growth to be close to 2-1/2 percent this year, reflecting tailwinds from fiscal policy, favorable financial conditions, and investment in AI.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/dcb8888f-9f35-4b54-ad89-c8705cc141cb/ https://minutesof.com/q/dcb8888f-9f35-4b54-ad89-c8705cc141cb/ “I expect the economy to grow above trend this year, with real GDP growth between 2-1/2 and 2-3/4 percent.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/c3340250-cad1-4eef-b4f9-74a786310f27/ https://minutesof.com/q/c3340250-cad1-4eef-b4f9-74a786310f27/ “I anticipate inflation will peak at around 2-3/4 to 3 percent sometime during the first half of this year, before starting to fall back.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/6c0a3b5f-7988-4bbb-9a1f-d7c9b95057e9/ https://minutesof.com/q/6c0a3b5f-7988-4bbb-9a1f-d7c9b95057e9/ “Given the lack of second-round effects and well-anchored inflation expectations, I expect the tariffs largely to have one-off effects on prices.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/4b4ab5ce-c32d-4b87-b492-66860f295bc3/ https://minutesof.com/q/4b4ab5ce-c32d-4b87-b492-66860f295bc3/ “Overall, I expect tariffs to boost inflation by about 1 percentage point over the second half of this year and the first part of next year.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/15fc85f4-61bf-4fdb-abc1-7a335f5c3744/ https://minutesof.com/q/15fc85f4-61bf-4fdb-abc1-7a335f5c3744/ “All in all, I expect tariffs will boost overall prices by a total of between 1 and 1-1/2 percent, with these effects continuing through the first half of next year.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/d12909d1-1c84-40d0-931f-0f5112b6b36c/ https://minutesof.com/q/d12909d1-1c84-40d0-931f-0f5112b6b36c/ “My expectation is that any new tariffs will primarily replace those that were curtailed or will soon expire, so we shouldn’t see a significant additional impulse on prices from this source going forward.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/e2f7621e-8b46-43f9-bb0d-976d3c80820a/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2f7621e-8b46-43f9-bb0d-976d3c80820a/ “This elevation primarily reflects three drivers. The first is the effect of higher tariffs on imported goods.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches forecast https://minutesof.com/q/19475f58-3551-48c1-8f14-1441b116b5aa/ https://minutesof.com/q/19475f58-3551-48c1-8f14-1441b116b5aa/ “In the modeling that we do, we have about $11,000,000,000,000 of CapEx from 2024 to 2029. Total. Total.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/ac53b829-20a0-4bb2-b3f9-a421576842e5/ https://minutesof.com/q/ac53b829-20a0-4bb2-b3f9-a421576842e5/ “You've got Anthropic OpenAI are taking as much as 40% to 50% of compute next year. And the centralization doesn't look like it's slowing down or stopping. In fact, it looks like it's only accelerating.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/70a3cb07-2a15-466e-a813-04504489cc62/ https://minutesof.com/q/70a3cb07-2a15-466e-a813-04504489cc62/ “When you when you look at the incremental compute added, that's about 30% of the compute added this year.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/87380cb5-ef13-4f9a-b24b-646ce43d9ba9/ https://minutesof.com/q/87380cb5-ef13-4f9a-b24b-646ce43d9ba9/ “As we go forward into the future, the the numbers for computer ballooning, right, we're at, you know, you know, a little bit over a trillion dollars of CapEx this year.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/38c658e7-621f-415c-813e-9b46ab432e17/ https://minutesof.com/q/38c658e7-621f-415c-813e-9b46ab432e17/ “I would expect that perhaps as soon as this month, we're going to see real wage gains.” — Scott Bessent, CBS Mornings Fri, 03 Jul 2026 18:00:31 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/cbcb0851-4b4a-4cf7-b6e8-35e2262c72a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/cbcb0851-4b4a-4cf7-b6e8-35e2262c72a3/ “But we had had before April, we had seen real wage growth for working Americans every month during President Trump's presidency, and I would expect maybe even as soon as next month we will go back to that.” — Scott Bessent, CBS News Fri, 03 Jul 2026 01:58:25 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/e9a8fba3-1f79-4310-9c95-0d513f20374b/ https://minutesof.com/q/e9a8fba3-1f79-4310-9c95-0d513f20374b/ “by 2030, just OpenAI and Anthropic will have over 100 gigawatts combined, and then you'll add Meta and Google and so on and so forth.” — Dylan Patel, Sequoia Capital Tue, 30 Jun 2026 12:00:25 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/eb584a54-7b84-4ddf-a4ea-1d28f9797588/ https://minutesof.com/q/eb584a54-7b84-4ddf-a4ea-1d28f9797588/ “We're now in the process of reinventing all of that, which is the reason why over the course of the next ten years, we're going to be building tens of trillions of dollars of new computers to replace the old computers that we built over the last sixty years.” — Jensen Huang, Associated Press Tue, 16 Jun 2026 20:50:13 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/31bc9965-bb52-401b-90c0-de580a832362/ https://minutesof.com/q/31bc9965-bb52-401b-90c0-de580a832362/ “But the bigger risk right now is simply that we've come a long way quickly. Right? We could have a 10 to 20% consolidation in the socks or these other technology and AI markets,” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 28 May 2026 17:00:15 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/d4f2a0f4-56a2-49b1-b256-38a58d9467ac/ https://minutesof.com/q/d4f2a0f4-56a2-49b1-b256-38a58d9467ac/ “And I would just say, I take the over on every number that they gave. Every single number.” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/620dd345-6d0e-430c-be37-13bf3dbb5607/ https://minutesof.com/q/620dd345-6d0e-430c-be37-13bf3dbb5607/ “But I think if you just look at the numbers, a trillion dollars over the course of the next, you know, six to eight quarters, I think speaks for itself.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Mon, 04 May 2026 19:16:21 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/b96643f5-9b4e-49c5-9ee5-67bd667121da/ https://minutesof.com/q/b96643f5-9b4e-49c5-9ee5-67bd667121da/ “If you were a good risk manager, you are going to make more money this year and next year if it continues than you ever have before because you've been risk off.” — Marc Rowan, Bloomberg Television Tue, 03 Mar 2026 17:37:35 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/f595cc16-a757-421d-a7d6-71cd95f1a623/ https://minutesof.com/q/f595cc16-a757-421d-a7d6-71cd95f1a623/ “Trillions of dollars, tens of trillions of dollars. Estimates have it close to $100,000,000,000,000 $85,000,000,000,000 in the next ten years.” — Jensen Huang, NVIDIA Thu, 05 Feb 2026 02:53:33 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/ab231a57-e3dc-4e62-afac-6f29f3648eeb/ https://minutesof.com/q/ab231a57-e3dc-4e62-afac-6f29f3648eeb/ “But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC. It's also memory both.” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/cfaa87e4-1ef8-45f7-82c5-b774d047c41d/ https://minutesof.com/q/cfaa87e4-1ef8-45f7-82c5-b774d047c41d/ “I had to make a podcast prediction for 2026 three weeks ago, and I said fall of the Iranian regime in 2026. I think I'm going to see that or we're going to see that.” — Sir Richard Dearlove, TalkTV Fri, 09 Jan 2026 15:15:01 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/d6a087d2-b073-4284-9362-983a835fec11/ https://minutesof.com/q/d6a087d2-b073-4284-9362-983a835fec11/ “And they just told us that we should expect a run rate by the end of next year of a $100,000,000,000.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Tue, 02 Dec 2025 14:15:59 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/ada2afaf-1860-4728-ad73-de827b2bb568/ https://minutesof.com/q/ada2afaf-1860-4728-ad73-de827b2bb568/ “What Sam said multiple times on the pod and since is that he expects that they'll do over 100,000,000,000 in revenues in twenty seven or '28.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 22:30:01 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/6ffe6ce0-73c8-48d0-a15d-2cccc7372119/ https://minutesof.com/q/6ffe6ce0-73c8-48d0-a15d-2cccc7372119/ “And he just said in his tweet that they're gonna exit the year at $20,000,000,000 in revenue.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 22:30:01 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/3302a3bc-c63c-4b44-b281-26e8b2841b9f/ https://minutesof.com/q/3302a3bc-c63c-4b44-b281-26e8b2841b9f/ “So the consensus for next year is 250,000,000,000 of data center revenue. If they grow up 50%, that's gonna be closer to 300,000,000,000 or closer to $8 a share.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 28 Aug 2025 17:12:24 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/58f9ff51-18ce-48d6-97b3-28e16f14ea80/ https://minutesof.com/q/58f9ff51-18ce-48d6-97b3-28e16f14ea80/ “Jensen said, you know, when he was on our pod last year, he said, we think the build out between now and the end of the decade's $2,000,000,000,000 of total compute.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 28 Aug 2025 17:12:24 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/1269ac38-2f98-4cc6-8b06-3dfdfcf4efda/ https://minutesof.com/q/1269ac38-2f98-4cc6-8b06-3dfdfcf4efda/ “'24, it's, it's rapidly growing Chinese share. And '25 is it looks clear, like, the the market shares is, you know, gonna be 60 is gonna be, like, 70% Chinese robots for China's domestic usage.” — Dylan Patel, Going Direct Sun, 22 Jun 2025 21:30:00 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/fa49d30d-9c9f-4a94-9987-e86b840b383d/ https://minutesof.com/q/fa49d30d-9c9f-4a94-9987-e86b840b383d/ “Okay? I just told you that last year tariffs were 77,000,000,000. So that's still a four x increase in tariff revenue,” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 22 May 2025 16:23:05 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/77d789fc-e791-47b7-b4aa-277db09d6f74/ https://minutesof.com/q/77d789fc-e791-47b7-b4aa-277db09d6f74/ “What I've said is I see us moving from what was hyperexceptionalism to merely exceptional because I don't think there are good alternatives to The US today, but that can change over time.” — Marc Rowan, Bloomberg Podcasts Mon, 05 May 2025 14:48:44 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/a56ef65c-c227-4ad7-9dee-9da076dd8517/ https://minutesof.com/q/a56ef65c-c227-4ad7-9dee-9da076dd8517/ “US and Mexico together should be the driving economic force in the world for the next fifty years.” — Marc Rowan, Bloomberg Podcasts Mon, 05 May 2025 14:48:44 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/f5ff9c6e-471c-49ff-b4eb-6fded846aab4/ https://minutesof.com/q/f5ff9c6e-471c-49ff-b4eb-6fded846aab4/ “We likely will cause two quarters of negative growth if we, in fact, don't resolve the uncertainty. So until we have resolution of what the rules of the game are, it's gonna be slow.” — Marc Rowan, Bloomberg Podcasts Mon, 05 May 2025 14:48:44 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/4dee9eff-291e-4d04-b9e6-0d48bea9ee59/ https://minutesof.com/q/4dee9eff-291e-4d04-b9e6-0d48bea9ee59/ “And that's because I think that the benefit, the economic benefit to the smallholder farmer in emerging markets is so profound.” — David Friedberg, Seed World Group Mon, 20 Jan 2025 17:23:06 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/6de51955-08c4-41cb-b6a1-1ee2e37ef67e/ https://minutesof.com/q/6de51955-08c4-41cb-b6a1-1ee2e37ef67e/ “if you think that infrastructure expenses are going to grow at 30% a year, then I think you have to believe that the underlying inference revenues, right, both on the consumer side and the enterprise side are gonna grow somewhere in that range as well.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:12:56 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/c9e9c5c6-42df-435e-951f-17dba05285f1/ https://minutesof.com/q/c9e9c5c6-42df-435e-951f-17dba05285f1/ “We're kind of at 6,000,000 GPUs for next year. The bearish people are at like 4,500,000. The numbers will ultimately tell.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Wed, 25 Sep 2024 16:21:38 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/f68e601f-fed6-4b37-9d59-d46207129ac0/ https://minutesof.com/q/f68e601f-fed6-4b37-9d59-d46207129ac0/ “And so by the year 2050, the UN estimates we'll need to increase global food production by north of 50%.” — David Friedberg, TED Tue, 25 Jun 2024 11:00:23 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/7fc0ecce-e0fe-4920-8deb-c9f88b0a4b8e/ https://minutesof.com/q/7fc0ecce-e0fe-4920-8deb-c9f88b0a4b8e/ “if you look at the consensus forecast for the business, which is pretty mind boggling, it's estimated by the consensus that it'll reach almost 10,000,000,000 in free cash flow, just a few years from now.” — Brad Gerstner, This Week in Startups Fri, 12 Jan 2024 05:28:40 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/a2cfb255-5998-4896-9e5d-c0f3bb57a9ee/ https://minutesof.com/q/a2cfb255-5998-4896-9e5d-c0f3bb57a9ee/ “what I said in the memo is that rates are likely to be between two and four, not between zero and two, the Fed funds rate.” — Howard Marks, David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/ac8bdfcc-9833-4b20-b2f7-d128b97fe885/ https://minutesof.com/q/ac8bdfcc-9833-4b20-b2f7-d128b97fe885/ “I think we're gonna see five, six, seven IPOs, good sized IPOs in q four. We'll probably see closer to 10 in q one,” — Brad Gerstner, All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/16ac4cf0-5430-491b-889a-29f588b887d6/ https://minutesof.com/q/16ac4cf0-5430-491b-889a-29f588b887d6/ “at some point in the next two, three, four, five years, I think The United States and China will sit down to work out how a new security system will, as it were, operate across the world to replace Pax Americana.” — Sir Richard Dearlove, Technion UK Thu, 29 Oct 2020 19:45:56 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/793013d2-ebfc-4cca-ba31-a1c0cab445ad/ https://minutesof.com/q/793013d2-ebfc-4cca-ba31-a1c0cab445ad/ “I would pick near a five. I think we can emerge from that in a pretty strong position if we do not lose self belief and self confidence.” — Sir Richard Dearlove, BBC Politics Thu, 14 Dec 2017 00:16:05 +0000 forecast https://minutesof.com/q/82db8034-7b53-46a3-bbbd-f8daba9ff1bb/ https://minutesof.com/q/82db8034-7b53-46a3-bbbd-f8daba9ff1bb/ “two years of turbulence? Probably near a five. I would pick near a five. I think we can emerge from that in a pretty strong position” — Sir Richard Dearlove, BBC Politics Thu, 14 Dec 2017 00:16:05 +0000 forecast