https://minutesof.com/on/forecasting/ Everyone on the record about forecasting: 13 verbatim quotes from 5 people, September 2023 to July 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:32:58 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/d7e84b05-2c51-42af-8b8b-4da51b1cda58/ https://minutesof.com/q/d7e84b05-2c51-42af-8b8b-4da51b1cda58/ “AI task length, right? The amount of time that an AI model can work on any specific job is increasing by 2x every seven months.” — Dylan Patel, RAISE Summit Wed, 22 Jul 2026 16:43:49 +0000 forecasting https://minutesof.com/q/05a1d0f2-89c4-4ba5-a2f6-9c16c37371ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/05a1d0f2-89c4-4ba5-a2f6-9c16c37371ae/ “It's a probability distribution. It's a range of possibilities in each thing, whether it's GDP growth next year or inflation next year, or who's going to win the next election,” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 forecasting https://minutesof.com/q/ef1891a8-885c-4b64-ac23-be7decfb8638/ https://minutesof.com/q/ef1891a8-885c-4b64-ac23-be7decfb8638/ “The future is not a set single thing that if you're smart enough, you can figure it out what it's going to be and it's going to materialize and make you right.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 forecasting https://minutesof.com/q/5f959c7d-1015-48e0-a2e0-8ddde44ca889/ https://minutesof.com/q/5f959c7d-1015-48e0-a2e0-8ddde44ca889/ “And each of the good and the great consulting firms have weighed in, and it looks like a child scattered dark plot.” — Marc Rowan, Yahoo Finance Wed, 10 Dec 2025 23:30:16 +0000 forecasting https://minutesof.com/q/ed447950-2c8e-4077-a32d-efabb8ba0eb4/ https://minutesof.com/q/ed447950-2c8e-4077-a32d-efabb8ba0eb4/ “And it was a negative correlation, which means the higher the PE ratio you pay, the lower the return you should expect.” — Howard Marks, My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 forecasting https://minutesof.com/q/f7e5ee2a-9317-45ec-a0c6-e02fddeffd5d/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7e5ee2a-9317-45ec-a0c6-e02fddeffd5d/ “in 1993, debt to GDP was supposed to go from 40 to or 60 to 80 by experts, it in fact went from 60 to 40. Yes. So experts can be wrong by a lot.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 forecasting https://minutesof.com/q/2fd34713-a4c8-40cc-934b-52b3e8f412e1/ https://minutesof.com/q/2fd34713-a4c8-40cc-934b-52b3e8f412e1/ “I can design a project plan to get me to the moon in five years for less than a billion dollars.” — David Friedberg, This Week in Startups Thu, 22 May 2025 16:00:06 +0000 forecasting https://minutesof.com/q/38b29e1c-3a61-4adf-aacc-fe77f8b01aab/ https://minutesof.com/q/38b29e1c-3a61-4adf-aacc-fe77f8b01aab/ “The EPS at the beginning of last year, the earnings per share was expected to be $5.70, and now it looks like it's gonna be $25.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:29:00 +0000 forecasting https://minutesof.com/q/b38b9121-d99a-424e-835d-2a3de26488c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/b38b9121-d99a-424e-835d-2a3de26488c6/ “And if if they ever kept a scorecard on the things that they wrote about what's gonna happen tomorrow, they would see that on average they get it right half the time” — Howard Marks, David Perell Wed, 21 Feb 2024 13:20:30 +0000 forecasting https://minutesof.com/q/db7151b5-6f29-4261-b2d7-b9e1d1dcbb8f/ https://minutesof.com/q/db7151b5-6f29-4261-b2d7-b9e1d1dcbb8f/ “When I think about what's going on here of course they show they went back and did some math against initial estimates and said, you know, super cycles are about 40% underestimated at the start.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 forecasting https://minutesof.com/q/95ed61dd-41b7-4aeb-82fb-045a18618f18/ https://minutesof.com/q/95ed61dd-41b7-4aeb-82fb-045a18618f18/ “Our numbers are still well above the street for this year. I think there's a lot of doubt. You know, the the common, discussion at the end of last year” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Mon, 29 Jan 2024 23:20:37 +0000 forecasting https://minutesof.com/q/3b798c64-1de6-4f61-baf9-1f2a35b1da5d/ https://minutesof.com/q/3b798c64-1de6-4f61-baf9-1f2a35b1da5d/ “Think about NVIDIA at the start of last year. Data center revenues were expected to shrink by 6%. Right?” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Mon, 29 Jan 2024 23:20:37 +0000 forecasting https://minutesof.com/q/472c426b-85d3-4279-90be-5d543ca9080f/ https://minutesof.com/q/472c426b-85d3-4279-90be-5d543ca9080f/ “He says we're not gonna have rate hikes until 2024. That's how wrong the Fed's forecast was in June 2021 because they were making the argument that inflation was transient.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:12:52 +0000 forecasting