https://minutesof.com/on/forecasts/ Everyone on the record about forecasts: 23 verbatim quotes from 4 people, October 2023 to August 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a link… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:32:58 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/fd6d2eb3-da00-477c-8bfe-4ac144bc044d/ https://minutesof.com/q/fd6d2eb3-da00-477c-8bfe-4ac144bc044d/ “As we go out into '28, it's gonna be more than $2,000,000,000,000. The labs are also taking an increasing percentage of this.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/5f3c7550-2121-4825-8582-416232c8b742/ https://minutesof.com/q/5f3c7550-2121-4825-8582-416232c8b742/ “If these guys end the year over 100,000,000,000, I think that they're on a revenue trajectory that they could three to five x again next year.” — Brad Gerstner, All-In Podcast Sat, 11 Jul 2026 16:00:19 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/3de08092-6158-4e51-8455-aa99d5b8c989/ https://minutesof.com/q/3de08092-6158-4e51-8455-aa99d5b8c989/ “And I would just say, I take the over on every number that they gave. Every single number. As what I think, you know, they're conservative guys.” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/fe481a98-ee52-4271-a902-5fcb25373eaa/ https://minutesof.com/q/fe481a98-ee52-4271-a902-5fcb25373eaa/ “The sentiment is already more than half Americans have a negative view of AI. As we fast forward to the end of this year, as Anthropix revenue goes from 19,000,000,000 to maybe 60, and OpenAI is similar, if not higher, the amount of jobs that get supplemented, the amount of change that happens in society,” — Dylan Patel, Matthew Berman Mon, 09 Mar 2026 17:07:47 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/1a954518-d905-4ab6-b6df-6800d4e18a40/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a954518-d905-4ab6-b6df-6800d4e18a40/ “There's no reason why Google will have any profit in '27 at all, right, in terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make on on AI infrastructure.” — Dylan Patel, Latent Space Thu, 26 Feb 2026 21:15:18 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/41e9701e-8a42-42e6-aaa0-bec5f26660a4/ https://minutesof.com/q/41e9701e-8a42-42e6-aaa0-bec5f26660a4/ “And then what's the economic value of that $100,000,000,000? Now, how much of that is in China? Right? Like, China's number is probably 10 x lower.” — Dylan Patel, The MAD Podcast with Matt Turck Thu, 05 Feb 2026 13:30:16 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/170adcfe-f306-42e0-8573-f93458964072/ https://minutesof.com/q/170adcfe-f306-42e0-8573-f93458964072/ “when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have $300,000,000,000 of revenue by the end of the decade. And it's like, actually, I think that number's too low.” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/4adf2698-ffda-4eb7-ae43-2e46f83b43fd/ https://minutesof.com/q/4adf2698-ffda-4eb7-ae43-2e46f83b43fd/ “I think that's an insane statement for a lot of people, but that's what it's gonna be. Yeah. Right? And who believes that number? Right? It's like Yeah. Very few people.” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/e5e3d778-0070-4de8-8f94-4c29939e6d4c/ https://minutesof.com/q/e5e3d778-0070-4de8-8f94-4c29939e6d4c/ “by the end of the year do how many people even believe by the end of the year AI startup revenue is over a $100,000,000,000?” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/26edcdcf-0bbd-4dc4-97c7-cfa8795a5de4/ https://minutesof.com/q/26edcdcf-0bbd-4dc4-97c7-cfa8795a5de4/ “The spending, the CapEx from that group alone is gonna be over $500,000,000,000 this year.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:01:23 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/55c2488f-537a-40ff-a8e2-4e757421a05c/ https://minutesof.com/q/55c2488f-537a-40ff-a8e2-4e757421a05c/ “So, these labs are now projecting revenues of 100,000,000,000 in 2728, and they're projecting revenue keeps growing at this rate of like 3x, 2x” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Wed, 12 Nov 2025 17:02:10 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/7d9d0bab-255a-445a-a1d8-0e08420af839/ https://minutesof.com/q/7d9d0bab-255a-445a-a1d8-0e08420af839/ “And then the other one is, given our estimates on what your capacity is in 2028, is three and a half gigawatts lower? Sure, you could have dedicated that to OpenAI training and inference capacity.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Wed, 12 Nov 2025 17:02:10 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/ea3cf02f-7d0e-4bca-b768-9af08fb48270/ https://minutesof.com/q/ea3cf02f-7d0e-4bca-b768-9af08fb48270/ “Oracle is going from like one fifth your size to bigger than you by end of twenty twenty seven.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Wed, 12 Nov 2025 17:02:10 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/5c14627c-380b-49f1-af71-9587664517f5/ https://minutesof.com/q/5c14627c-380b-49f1-af71-9587664517f5/ “This is the NVIDIA sell side forecast. Okay? Forecast this year is for about 200,000,000,000 in revenues, growing to about 350,000,000,000 in revenues over the next five years.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Tue, 14 Oct 2025 23:40:02 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/b3245cbb-ccb0-4af1-8480-c9d4f7170c7d/ https://minutesof.com/q/b3245cbb-ccb0-4af1-8480-c9d4f7170c7d/ “The consensus for the banks is $360,000,000,000 of spend next year across all of them. And my number is closer to, like it's, like, $45,500.” — Dylan Patel, a16z Mon, 22 Sep 2025 13:01:51 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/8f99a7b9-a139-456b-b5be-913d28f9bdd8/ https://minutesof.com/q/8f99a7b9-a139-456b-b5be-913d28f9bdd8/ “NVIDIA's revenue this year is gonna be, like, over $200,000,000,000, and next year expects over 300,000,000,000 plus Google's gonna spend, like, $50,000,000,000 on TPU data centers.” — Dylan Patel, a16z Mon, 18 Aug 2025 18:26:43 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/77311223-0022-4c88-b2ea-cbfb1b759659/ https://minutesof.com/q/77311223-0022-4c88-b2ea-cbfb1b759659/ “the largest company, Microsoft, today is like 3 and onetwo trillion. Let's say that Microsoft, I don't know, doubles in ten years. It would only be growing at 7% per year.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/a9e9f223-6b73-44f1-b7b7-580ede84bfda/ https://minutesof.com/q/a9e9f223-6b73-44f1-b7b7-580ede84bfda/ “Terawatt is roughly the power production or the electricity production capacity of the entire United States. US is going from one to two between now and 2040.” — David Friedberg, All-In Podcast Fri, 16 May 2025 05:57:14 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/872ab353-aae6-49d8-a1d3-cb44476886b8/ https://minutesof.com/q/872ab353-aae6-49d8-a1d3-cb44476886b8/ “There's gonna be a breakthrough in the next year or two that's gonna unleash this additional demand curve. We're gonna have a 100,000,000 robots in The United States. They're all electrified.” — David Friedberg, All-In Podcast Tue, 06 May 2025 22:48:17 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/1cbccb28-445f-4db0-b2a7-fe1b3bb20979/ https://minutesof.com/q/1cbccb28-445f-4db0-b2a7-fe1b3bb20979/ “The US is forecasted to increase its electricity production capacity from one to two terawatts by twenty forty, fifteen years from now.” — David Friedberg, All-In Podcast Tue, 06 May 2025 22:48:17 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/75cf64ae-892b-4b95-8187-a5ea949de724/ https://minutesof.com/q/75cf64ae-892b-4b95-8187-a5ea949de724/ “we're we're closer to $5 a share. We've been ahead of the consensus estimate since the fall of twenty two.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Tue, 11 Jun 2024 16:52:46 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/f70986f0-c308-4c5a-82aa-e98a6a3d3ce8/ https://minutesof.com/q/f70986f0-c308-4c5a-82aa-e98a6a3d3ce8/ “the consensus estimate for next year for Nvidia, I think is around $3.50 per share.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Tue, 11 Jun 2024 16:52:46 +0000 forecasts https://minutesof.com/q/92655be9-98bd-4d4b-aec5-e738b69a9dfb/ https://minutesof.com/q/92655be9-98bd-4d4b-aec5-e738b69a9dfb/ “The consensus estimate for NVIDIA this year was that data center growth revenue growth was gonna be negative 6%. Right? That's the pros. They got it that wrong.” — Brad Gerstner, FII Institute Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:01:13 +0000 forecasts