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    <title>interest rates: everyone on the record — The Minutes</title>
    <link>https://minutesof.com/on/interest-rates/</link>
    <description>Everyone on the record about interest rates: 25 verbatim quotes from 8 people, January 2020 to August 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a…</description>
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    <lastBuildDate>Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:33:02 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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      <title>John Williams: Williams says immediate recognition of productivity shifts produces trivial inflation effects b</title>
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      <description>“Indeed, with immediate recognition (not shown), the depressing effect on the inflation rate is trivial, less than one tenth of a percentage point.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches</description>
      <category>interest rates</category>
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    <item>
      <title>John Williams: Williams reports Treasury repo rates fell 15 basis points below IORB in mid-May, causing two ba</title>
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      <description>“Treasury repo rates later notably declined, falling as low as 15 basis points below the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) in mid-May, though they have since rebounded.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches</description>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Dylan Patel: Patel argues hyperscalers would pay 8% interest rates versus current 5-6% given AI compute return</title>
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      <description>“Meta&#x27;s raised at, like, 5% to 6%. I don&#x27;t see why they wouldn&#x27;t pay 8% Because they would happily pay 8% because the return from the compute that they&#x27;re going to build is humongous.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel</description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Dylan Patel: Patel argues Meta could pay 8% interest rates versus current 5-6% because compute returns are eno</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/a57f7628-9d01-45ea-854c-c064550bc8ee/</link>
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      <description>“So why wouldn&#x27;t interest rates Yep. For Amazon go from, you know, from where they are today? I think Meta pay okay, let&#x27;s like so this is going be extremely lived out.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel</description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 25 Aug 2026 15:57:53 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
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    <item>
      <title>Howard Marks: Marks describes personal borrowing rates falling from 22.25% in 1980 to 2.25% in 2020.</title>
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      <description>“And forty years later in 2020, I was able to borrow at two and a quarter fixed for fifteen years.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard Lutnick: Lutnick predicts Trump will balance the budget and interest rates will drop 150 basis points d</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/d5b08bba-a62f-4fd0-bd1d-e9790ab5060e/</link>
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      <description>“Let Donald Trump is going to balance the budget of The United States Of America. Interest rates are gonna drop a 150 basis points during his term.” — Howard Lutnick, CBS Evening News</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:26:30 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Marc Rowan: Rowan questions Fed rate cuts given wide-open markets, record equity highs, and rising real estate</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/356dc4c5-3329-4dbb-aa7d-79019a50dbe5/</link>
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      <description>“The notion that we would cut rates. Financial markets are wide open. Equities are at all time high. Financing is available. Real estate prices are going up” — Marc Rowan, Bloomberg Television</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 02 Oct 2024 13:14:05 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>David Friedberg: Friedberg calculates refinancing half of U.S. debt at higher rates adds $300 billion in annua</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/84cacf70-ae6c-4b4a-a6de-8a948aa1a69a/</link>
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      <description>“And when that happens, you know, 2% increase in interest on $15,000,000,000,000 that&#x27;s another $300,000,000,000 of interest payments a year.” — David Friedberg, Tom Bilyeu</description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 02 Jul 2024 13:00:38 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Marc Rowan: Rowan declares a soft landing achieved after 400 basis point rate increase without economic breakd</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/db1cf0cd-7c32-443c-bce4-5c0fdd9cd71d/</link>
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      <description>“we&#x27;ve had a soft landing. When rates have gone up 400 basis points and the wheels haven&#x27;t come off the bus, as they say, I think that&#x27;s the definition of a soft landing.” — Marc Rowan, Yahoo Finance</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 06 May 2024 16:23:24 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Brad Gerstner: Gerstner predicts the ten-year treasury will settle in a three to four percent range, creating</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/ae921316-b4a3-4353-9b51-16f8a0ce3567/</link>
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      <description>“I think we&#x27;re going back to a period of three to four on the ten year, a highly investable period.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 08 Nov 2023 15:35:15 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard Marks: Marks illustrates how refinancing environment shifted from 800 million at 5% to 500 million at 8</title>
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      <description>“You went to the bank. They said we&#x27;ll lend you 800,000,000 at 5%. Now the loan is up for renewal. You go in. They say, fine. We&#x27;ll lend you 500,000,000 at 8%.” — Howard Marks, David Rubenstein</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard Marks: Marks says the Fed funds rate should exceed inflation to maintain a positive real rate.</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/15a739bd-c80b-4168-bcba-38bf5376930b/</link>
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      <description>“If inflation&#x27;s two, then the Fed funds rate should be higher than that so that there&#x27;s a positive real Fed funds rate.” — Howard Marks, David Rubenstein</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
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    <item>
      <title>Howard Marks: Marks forecasts Fed funds rate will settle between two and four percent, not zero to two.</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/a2cfb255-5998-4896-9e5d-c0f3bb57a9ee/</link>
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      <description>“what I said in the memo is that rates are likely to be between two and four, not between zero and two, the Fed funds rate.” — Howard Marks, David Rubenstein</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard Marks: Marks says interest rates fell 20 percentage points from 1980 to 2020, the most important financ</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/913ddd48-663c-45a9-bd56-b73c8a328b0c/</link>
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      <description>“So the decline of interest rates by 20 percentage points over that period was a dominant factor in the financial world.” — Howard Marks, David Rubenstein</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard Marks: Marks describes Fed funds rate declining from 20% in 1980 to zero forty years later as dominant</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/730c36ab-073e-476d-aee5-323159b07026/</link>
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      <description>“Forty years later, the Fed funds rate was zero, and I had a loan outstanding from bank at two and a quarter.” — Howard Marks, David Rubenstein</description>
      <pubDate>Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Brad Gerstner: Gerstner lists specific consumer borrowing costs: 10% car loans and 20% credit cards.</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/94715e83-2cef-44c6-8bbf-662daec71e22/</link>
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      <description>“We have 10% car loans. We have 20% credit cards. Student loans are about to kick in.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television</description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:12:52 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Brad Gerstner: Gerstner highlights the shift from zero rates to 8% mortgages as evidence of dramatic policy ch</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/5a993ced-5033-444b-9b80-710973ab71a2/</link>
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      <description>“We&#x27;ve gone from effectively a 0% interest rate environment in ZERP, where corporations borrowed for free and consumers borrowed for free, to now we have 8% mortgages.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television</description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:12:52 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Marc Rowan: Everything that was purchased prior to 2022 is today worth less. The change in cap rates, the chan</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/a4504abe-8c86-4a84-904b-add0326ed627/</link>
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      <description>“Everything that was purchased prior to 2022 is today worth less. The change in cap rates, the change in interest rates has simply made the market worth less.” — Marc Rowan, Barron&#x27;s</description>
      <pubDate>Thu, 11 May 2023 15:16:29 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Marc Rowan: Rowan says institutional investors prefer locking in 5% tax-free returns after a decade of low rat</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/9b71322e-f4c8-4641-9b70-0a9090dcdfe3/</link>
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      <description>“They prefer 5% to 2%. It&#x27;s no more we can make it really complicated, but when they&#x27;re they&#x27;ve had a decade of very low ability to provide for retirement income, all of a sudden, can lock in 5% plus tax free for the next decade.” — Marc Rowan, CNBC Television</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 01 May 2023 15:24:57 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>David Friedberg: Friedberg explains rising interest rates compressed VC time horizons from ten-fifteen years t</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/e4b95347-e6e3-48f3-b76c-7ba9afb8f496/</link>
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      <description>“When interest rates jump up to 4%, well, now I can invest my money and I can make 20% back on my money in four and a half years.” — David Friedberg, Consumer VC with Mike Gelb</description>
      <pubDate>Sun, 30 Apr 2023 12:51:57 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
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    <item>
      <title>David Friedberg: Friedberg warns US debt service could hit $1.5 trillion, over a third of the federal budget.</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/3a11d9e7-434c-4cc1-9626-ec57306db71a/</link>
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      <description>“We&#x27;re spending $800,000,000,000 a year on debt service right now. That could skyrocket to $1,500,000,000,000 which is over a third of the federal budget each year going into next year.” — David Friedberg, Megyn Kelly</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 17 Oct 2022 21:00:09 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Brad Gerstner: Gerstner states a 1% change in interest rates causes 15-20% change in valuation multiples.</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/4d290681-0331-4424-8f28-5f37703b0250/</link>
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      <description>“the iron law of investing is interest rates. A 1% change in rates leads to a 15 or 20% change in a multiple.” — Brad Gerstner, All-In Podcast</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Brad Gerstner: Gerstner reports the Fed expects 2% negative real rates by year-end, with 4.3% inflation and 2.</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/f38b9dbb-5996-43e1-a51d-292247c244a4/</link>
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      <description>“They said we expect inflation exiting the year to be 4.3 and we expect the ten year to be around 2.3.” — Brad Gerstner, All-In Podcast</description>
      <pubDate>Sat, 26 Mar 2022 05:49:32 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
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    <item>
      <title>Brad Gerstner: Gerstner calculates that 150 bps lower discount rates should add two to three turns to software</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/729c0b3e-080d-4004-8072-b161f297cea3/</link>
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      <description>“If I reduce my discount rate on any growth software company by 150 bps over the next ten years, the multiple will go up by two to three turns, right?” — Brad Gerstner, Invest Like the Best</description>
      <pubDate>Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <category>interest rates</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Stanley Druckenmiller: Druckenmiller says current Fed funds rate of 1.5% is absurd given economic conditions;</title>
      <link>https://minutesof.com/q/5ce1dbc3-8c69-4e9c-9635-dab245cfc052/</link>
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      <description>“If I came down from Mars and you showed me the the broad landscape and asked me where Fed funds would be, probably would guess three and a half, somewhere in there.” — Stanley Druckenmiller, Bloomberg Television</description>
      <pubDate>Mon, 06 Jan 2020 18:44:41 +0000</pubDate>
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