market cycles: everyone on the record — The Minutes https://minutesof.com/on/market-cycles/ Everyone on the record about market cycles: 19 verbatim quotes from 2 people, March 2020 to September 2023, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:33:04 +0000 Bill Gurley: Gurley observes tech valuations rise slowly but crash immediately, and he has now seen this patte https://minutesof.com/q/cbb5d067-a876-4dec-92a7-d0540518889e/ https://minutesof.com/q/cbb5d067-a876-4dec-92a7-d0540518889e/ “it tends to go up slowly, and it tends to crash immediately. And so this is the third time I've seen valuations crash,” — Bill Gurley, CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley says the venture industry is highly cyclical, rising slowly but crashing immediately acros https://minutesof.com/q/84e1ff8f-eb18-4a77-8fca-b2b4a9d43069/ https://minutesof.com/q/84e1ff8f-eb18-4a77-8fca-b2b4a9d43069/ “I've lived through three different bubbles and bursts in this industry, and unfortunately, it's highly cyclical. And when you and and it tends to go up slowly, and it tends to crash immediately.” — Bill Gurley, CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley observes venture markets rise slowly but crash immediately, based on experiencing three bu https://minutesof.com/q/a28d89f9-eb3f-4eb7-821e-aa227e16db49/ https://minutesof.com/q/a28d89f9-eb3f-4eb7-821e-aa227e16db49/ “Yeah. Look, I've lived through three different bubbles and bursts in this industry, and unfortunately, it's highly cyclical. And when you and and it tends to go up slowly, and it tends to crash immediately.” — Bill Gurley, CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley says venture firms should exit at peaks but instead become most confident about holding fo https://minutesof.com/q/93fad824-abf1-4399-bf1a-2e085b9e01c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/93fad824-abf1-4399-bf1a-2e085b9e01c6/ “Yes, right when we are at the peak is when people get the most brazen, the most confident and they start talking about how we're going to hold forever.” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley claims venture's outperformance depends entirely on tiny frothy windows; without peak year https://minutesof.com/q/873d2f11-d308-4df3-8646-6745e5893268/ https://minutesof.com/q/873d2f11-d308-4df3-8646-6745e5893268/ “And if you don't, if you aren't around for that part, you know, you strip those years out a forty year assessment, it's actually not that interesting an asset class,” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley says during booms every firm started multiple funds, piling up money and slowly taking on https://minutesof.com/q/6ce7bb89-8b04-4635-a24a-552688785040/ https://minutesof.com/q/6ce7bb89-8b04-4635-a24a-552688785040/ “So when things boom, everyone starts a venture firm. Right? And in this past boom, in addition to everyone starting a venture firm, every venture firm started multiple venture firms and growth firms, and all that money gets piled up and you're slowly taking on risk and you don't realize it.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley tells entrepreneurs the 2020-21 boom was a fantasy, not normal, and current conditions are https://minutesof.com/q/97cdae8f-ade0-400e-adff-ed2f3244733e/ https://minutesof.com/q/97cdae8f-ade0-400e-adff-ed2f3244733e/ “Then I'm not the only one, there's other VC's getting, this is normal dude. Like that was a fantasy you were in and you need to forget it fast, but you can't.” — Bill Gurley, Tim Ferriss Thu, 26 Jan 2023 19:45:00 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley finds the post-correction window calmest with less anxiety, slower pace, and more rational https://minutesof.com/q/2cfc88e0-1c95-481a-8b70-dfae58500dde/ https://minutesof.com/q/2cfc88e0-1c95-481a-8b70-dfae58500dde/ “the window after the correction is the calmest, where there's least anxiety for me at least. Like everything slows down, people talk rationally, people aren't doing silly things.” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley finds the period after market corrections to be the calmest with least anxiety in his care https://minutesof.com/q/24e0feba-3fec-4656-b2a4-dc64442ff9bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/24e0feba-3fec-4656-b2a4-dc64442ff9bc/ “I found through my career, which wasn't four decades, okay. Over three That the window after the correction is the calmest, where there's least anxiety for me at least.” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley coined the phrase that protecting against downside requires enjoying every bit of upside i https://minutesof.com/q/931bfc23-4b12-4917-8ca7-cf1944131d96/ https://minutesof.com/q/931bfc23-4b12-4917-8ca7-cf1944131d96/ “that's where we came up with this phrase that the best way to protect yourself against the downside is to enjoy every last bit of the upside.” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley says venture capital returns are heavily dependent on performance during the hottest part https://minutesof.com/q/07f83cae-c84a-4ad1-81b4-6776d3832448/ https://minutesof.com/q/07f83cae-c84a-4ad1-81b4-6776d3832448/ “what I realized was that the IRR numbers and the ROI numbers on the venture capital category were heavily dependent on performance in the hottest part of the cycle and so in the tip of that sawtooth” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley describes risk-on as slow and reflexive while risk-off happens abruptly, not like a sine c https://minutesof.com/q/195df41e-5c24-4b0e-83ba-95f4fea63635/ https://minutesof.com/q/195df41e-5c24-4b0e-83ba-95f4fea63635/ “Risk on is a very slow process and it's reflexive so it grows and grows and grows and grows And then risk off tends to be very abrupt” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley describes venture cycles as sawtooth patterns rather than sine curves, with gradual risk-o https://minutesof.com/q/8446b6e0-024f-41f3-815b-babb97db591e/ https://minutesof.com/q/8446b6e0-024f-41f3-815b-babb97db591e/ “it doesn't happen like a sine curve which is what we all imagine when we think of a cyclical business, it's more like a sawtooth.” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley finds post-correction windows the calmest period with least anxiety as people behave more https://minutesof.com/q/5d43bd16-477e-4bb5-a9de-5be91c7873bf/ https://minutesof.com/q/5d43bd16-477e-4bb5-a9de-5be91c7873bf/ “The window after the correction is the calmest, where there's least anxiety for me at least. Like, everything slows down, people talk rationally, people aren't doing silly things.” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley explains venture firms must maximize upside because IRR depends on hot cycle performance, https://minutesof.com/q/74630893-0a8d-4332-8f11-489f98bbd7d5/ https://minutesof.com/q/74630893-0a8d-4332-8f11-489f98bbd7d5/ “And that's where we came up with this phrase that the best way to protect yourself against the downside is to enjoy every last bit of the upside.” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: And then risk off tends to be very abrupt and we've seen that here, right? This this cycle, risk https://minutesof.com/q/308fd1f5-4b2f-484f-9aa5-19db5f9b947d/ https://minutesof.com/q/308fd1f5-4b2f-484f-9aa5-19db5f9b947d/ “And then risk off tends to be very abrupt and we've seen that here, right? This this cycle, risk on was from o nine. That's well said. To five months ago.” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 market cycles Howard Marks: Marks argues risk is hidden because it only becomes visible when negative events occur, like fla https://minutesof.com/q/79066b85-fc27-4749-a5ca-fab31c9c7661/ https://minutesof.com/q/79066b85-fc27-4749-a5ca-fab31c9c7661/ “I also believe that risk is hidden and deceptive. This is really important. Loss is what happens when risk, the potential for loss collides with negative events.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley argues that entrepreneur quality declines during boom times and improves when risk appetit https://minutesof.com/q/4667afd8-9c03-452b-b967-931e69d5c496/ https://minutesof.com/q/4667afd8-9c03-452b-b967-931e69d5c496/ “I think you actually, that entire time that risk is increasing, the quality of your average entrepreneur that's getting funded is actually going down.” — Bill Gurley, Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 market cycles Bill Gurley: Gurley argues that during risk expansion periods, average entrepreneur quality declines as easy c https://minutesof.com/q/0bfed641-7f55-4b67-909f-74a9e04415bb/ https://minutesof.com/q/0bfed641-7f55-4b67-909f-74a9e04415bb/ “And I think you actually, that entire time that risk is increasing, the quality of your average entrepreneur that's getting funded is actually going down.” — Bill Gurley, Invest Like the Best Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:30:00 +0000 market cycles