https://minutesof.com/on/market-psychology/ Everyone on the record about market psychology: 130 verbatim quotes from 2 people, March 2015 to June 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a… en Mon, 31 Aug 2026 13:18:07 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/80b5165b-79f7-4866-8977-fdb412e9eb68/ https://minutesof.com/q/80b5165b-79f7-4866-8977-fdb412e9eb68/ “I think today, if you could if you could ascertain people's expectations, I personally think that the that the level of worry and the universality of worry with regard to software is probably excessive.” — Howard Marks, Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/9aa3f218-4fb9-4cb6-8cb2-3716efb950dd/ https://minutesof.com/q/9aa3f218-4fb9-4cb6-8cb2-3716efb950dd/ “It I I think there's an expectation. And and, you know, investors tend to paint things with the broad brush and not make fine distinctions.” — Howard Marks, Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/5e1ab57a-e8ac-44b2-8df5-2012f497fc1e/ https://minutesof.com/q/5e1ab57a-e8ac-44b2-8df5-2012f497fc1e/ “If I don't cut the price of this loan, my competitor will make the loan, and I'll have to look on. So these this is what happens.” — Howard Marks, Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/d8f33f76-07e0-4c1d-a3ac-8e1005782920/ https://minutesof.com/q/d8f33f76-07e0-4c1d-a3ac-8e1005782920/ “And part of that means with everything you do, some part of your body has to be saying, yes, but how do we prepare for less optimistic times?” — Howard Marks, Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/425b3576-a3a7-4feb-8132-551ef9fb9c21/ https://minutesof.com/q/425b3576-a3a7-4feb-8132-551ef9fb9c21/ “I'll say since 10/01/2022, which is a special date for a reason, it's when the Fed turned more dovish.” — Howard Marks, Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/f7291038-b263-4b1a-ac70-0f73234e8f92/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7291038-b263-4b1a-ac70-0f73234e8f92/ “To make money in a salutary investment environment, you can do it on the basis of good judgment and hard work and skill, or you can do it on aggressiveness and getting lucky.” — Howard Marks, Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/968df78b-59e4-49d6-88e1-b52fc92cab54/ https://minutesof.com/q/968df78b-59e4-49d6-88e1-b52fc92cab54/ “You know, the the the non Shiller PE ratio is about 23 or so today. The eighty year average is 16. So we're roughly 50% higher today. But in 2000, I think it was 32.” — Howard Marks, Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/f0d15cf7-38a0-4bd3-9ba6-3d1f55b28cfa/ https://minutesof.com/q/f0d15cf7-38a0-4bd3-9ba6-3d1f55b28cfa/ “And, you know, those things showed the the market to be, I used the expression a year ago, lofty but not nutty.” — Howard Marks, Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/30e4ee3c-3f15-4d17-8664-7e0f3834f482/ https://minutesof.com/q/30e4ee3c-3f15-4d17-8664-7e0f3834f482/ “if this technological innovation with its exuberance doesn't produce a money losing bubble, it'll be the first. And now it could happen. You know, you can't rule these things out.” — Howard Marks, Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/9803be00-5faa-425b-a7ba-9711847ea2e6/ https://minutesof.com/q/9803be00-5faa-425b-a7ba-9711847ea2e6/ “In every case, too much capital flowed in. I think it's fair to say too much infrastructure was built and prices were paid that were too high.” — Howard Marks, Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/5b6ca29b-f7be-4e69-b717-8c27d99731c7/ https://minutesof.com/q/5b6ca29b-f7be-4e69-b717-8c27d99731c7/ “The scariest thing in the world, the riskiest thing in the world is the belief there's no risk.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/7ea46ef1-d124-4d2c-b76c-4e15e8785e86/ https://minutesof.com/q/7ea46ef1-d124-4d2c-b76c-4e15e8785e86/ “So the point is that that whereas, the underlying thing progresses gradually, the price fluctuates wildly around that trend line, and the main reason is, the fluctuation of psychology.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/91b34ccd-cc82-4a27-acbf-55d1000a48a9/ https://minutesof.com/q/91b34ccd-cc82-4a27-acbf-55d1000a48a9/ “readily available quantitative information about the present cannot hold the key to success, because everybody has it. Success in investing is doing better than others.” — Howard Marks, Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/3f63fbc7-d33d-402e-86ce-eb0e9aacf9b5/ https://minutesof.com/q/3f63fbc7-d33d-402e-86ce-eb0e9aacf9b5/ “And there was a guy named Wally Deemer, was an old time trader, who had some great quotes and he turned them into” — Howard Marks, Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/d9b7f080-7d66-4f47-a8d2-618d9a050692/ https://minutesof.com/q/d9b7f080-7d66-4f47-a8d2-618d9a050692/ “if you bought those stocks the day I got to work in September of 'sixty nine, if you held them tenaciously for five years, you lost about 95% of your money.” — Howard Marks, Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/f5e7c1a3-da76-4c75-8600-c8b4c140e3b5/ https://minutesof.com/q/f5e7c1a3-da76-4c75-8600-c8b4c140e3b5/ “And not only is that an interesting phenomenon to think about, but even more so, the fact that the return on the S and P, which averages 10, is almost never between eight and twelve.” — Howard Marks, Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/8018c4cf-55b2-4c56-895e-c62c37db5633/ https://minutesof.com/q/8018c4cf-55b2-4c56-895e-c62c37db5633/ “So rather than thinking of cycles as ups and downs, which I think most people do, think of them as excesses and corrections, excesses and corrections. Fluctuations around the trend line.” — Howard Marks, Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/37841e74-af02-4eba-8329-112c7643ae0a/ https://minutesof.com/q/37841e74-af02-4eba-8329-112c7643ae0a/ “So rather than thinking of cycles as ups and downs, which I think most people do, think of them as excesses and corrections, excesses and corrections.” — Howard Marks, Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/60a4741c-52ab-4076-b190-1c64f0757d6c/ https://minutesof.com/q/60a4741c-52ab-4076-b190-1c64f0757d6c/ “Because you have to be optimistic to be an investor. What is investing? You take your money, you give it to somebody else in the hope you'll get back more later.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:17:40 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/563e1a00-0432-4d81-a9da-6051d8b31e19/ https://minutesof.com/q/563e1a00-0432-4d81-a9da-6051d8b31e19/ “And it is basically the human brain's ability to reject information which is at odds with its predisposition.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:17:40 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/73381f37-5a2e-409a-895e-2302655503eb/ https://minutesof.com/q/73381f37-5a2e-409a-895e-2302655503eb/ “cognitive dissonance is something that you should all familiarize yourself with. And it is basically the human brain's ability to reject information which is at odds with its predisposition.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:17:40 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/7c2d2078-3d5e-44be-afb4-7603b672ec39/ https://minutesof.com/q/7c2d2078-3d5e-44be-afb4-7603b672ec39/ “And, cognitive dissonance is something that you should all familiarize yourself with. And it is basically the human brain's ability to reject information which is at odds with its predisposition.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:17:40 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/7a5c456a-5c5e-4839-875f-cd1fc7e7c69c/ https://minutesof.com/q/7a5c456a-5c5e-4839-875f-cd1fc7e7c69c/ “The the biggest I thought I've spent a lot of time thinking about the biggest mistake that investors make. It is the belief that something can go up more than something else forever.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/4b1ad5b7-b170-43fe-a2b0-f34bb5c624f2/ https://minutesof.com/q/4b1ad5b7-b170-43fe-a2b0-f34bb5c624f2/ “Emotion, what we call human nature, tends to get us excited when things go well. And as things go well, prices prices rise rise rise and people wanna buy more and more and more.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/1f7d4144-3e24-4d24-a1ad-f7ca508e5b61/ https://minutesof.com/q/1f7d4144-3e24-4d24-a1ad-f7ca508e5b61/ “And and the government, in theory, can make up the paycheck, but they can't make up the sense of purpose and the reason to get out of bed and the structure for your day.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/b2a982f7-b729-44b0-8f81-91eec52c6a33/ https://minutesof.com/q/b2a982f7-b729-44b0-8f81-91eec52c6a33/ “When I was a kid and came into this business in '69, the Nifty Fifty were selling at PE ratios between sixty and ninety. So today's Mag seven in the thirties seem reasonable.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/bc701e9f-b3d4-4f0a-9235-b2ebe99e8d57/ https://minutesof.com/q/bc701e9f-b3d4-4f0a-9235-b2ebe99e8d57/ “And, you know, they're mostly selling at PE ratios in the thirties, highest earnings ratios. That doesn't seem high to me.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/02b95898-ae5b-4520-bcc9-479ea6d3fbec/ https://minutesof.com/q/02b95898-ae5b-4520-bcc9-479ea6d3fbec/ “I happen to believe that the Mag seven, most of or all of them are the best companies I've ever seen.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e2f186c1-24f1-4804-aff1-69558971cbbc/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2f186c1-24f1-4804-aff1-69558971cbbc/ “The pessimist the optimists had basically been winning for the last, I think now it's, forty three months.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/48e6a01a-4a22-4e26-8757-fd112b3f68f2/ https://minutesof.com/q/48e6a01a-4a22-4e26-8757-fd112b3f68f2/ “Am I supposed to value these things at what they're worth? What I could sell them for? What I could sell half for?” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/4416c4a2-8868-4190-8f4b-779aa2dcbce0/ https://minutesof.com/q/4416c4a2-8868-4190-8f4b-779aa2dcbce0/ “But the lesson I learned from my experience with the nifty 50 in '69 was that it's not what you buy, it's what you pay that matters.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/a0ab166c-bf59-49e3-be8d-7dc2a71d8fb1/ https://minutesof.com/q/a0ab166c-bf59-49e3-be8d-7dc2a71d8fb1/ “And if you bought the stocks the day I got to work in '69 and you held them for five years, the greatest companies in America, you lost about 95% of your money.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/c326d0c2-1446-4732-a7b1-fd08e13e9489/ https://minutesof.com/q/c326d0c2-1446-4732-a7b1-fd08e13e9489/ “And I would say, let's talk about credit. Why do you skip all the way from zero to private credit, glossing over public credit,” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/5b4113c2-c120-4fd3-b3f4-6387d3b071ad/ https://minutesof.com/q/5b4113c2-c120-4fd3-b3f4-6387d3b071ad/ “So if you bought the stocks the day I got there, I think it was 09/22/1969, if I'm not mistaken, and if you held them tenaciously for five years, the greatest company is America, you lost about 95% of your money.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/7d35714b-4b54-432f-af75-8f9f520b0e16/ https://minutesof.com/q/7d35714b-4b54-432f-af75-8f9f520b0e16/ “These were the 50 best and fastest growing companies in America, where nothing could go wrong and there was no price too high.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e9992f06-7456-42c0-9ae3-477bcccf38c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/e9992f06-7456-42c0-9ae3-477bcccf38c6/ “Well, know, when I started Citibank in September sixty nine, the bank and most of the money center banks, it's an old fashioned expression, invested in what we call the nifty 50.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/68ecbd03-4a52-4aee-bc52-f45173c9d441/ https://minutesof.com/q/68ecbd03-4a52-4aee-bc52-f45173c9d441/ “I think you would have to say, optimism, not pessimism, credulousness, not skepticism, are in the ascendancy today, and when optimism and credulousness are in the ascendancy, it gets hard to make return investments that will produce what we call excess returns,” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/bb39dc1f-9a0a-4eb8-9099-a3eb2a83cea1/ https://minutesof.com/q/bb39dc1f-9a0a-4eb8-9099-a3eb2a83cea1/ “if the yield spreads are at the low end of normal range, you would have to say that the fear of elevated defaults is not present and compensation for an elevated default rate is not available.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/18effe83-7b96-418d-8bdb-31a5eeb58aca/ https://minutesof.com/q/18effe83-7b96-418d-8bdb-31a5eeb58aca/ “I mean, company values haven't doubled, intrinsic values, but prices have doubled, so it's been a great time, and great times encourage the desire to put money to work and discourage analysis,” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/eaa3ce09-3f74-4e7e-ac01-9176ea607804/ https://minutesof.com/q/eaa3ce09-3f74-4e7e-ac01-9176ea607804/ “since roughly 09/30/2022, I would venture that the S and P has doubled. I mean, company values haven't doubled, intrinsic values, but prices have doubled, so it's been a great time,” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/84fdeda8-5478-4d7c-9e06-e447dc253ef8/ https://minutesof.com/q/84fdeda8-5478-4d7c-9e06-e447dc253ef8/ “the stock market bottomed March 6, I think it was, of 2009, seventeen years ago, this month, and there hasn't really been a tough time in the financial market since then.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/cb1e3b8c-b2fe-4c84-8896-aee74e2c55d9/ https://minutesof.com/q/cb1e3b8c-b2fe-4c84-8896-aee74e2c55d9/ “one of the long standing sayings in the banking business is that the worst of loans are made in the best of times, and it's for this reason.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/dea444d8-5419-489c-b4d8-3985e86340c7/ https://minutesof.com/q/dea444d8-5419-489c-b4d8-3985e86340c7/ “I think it's 99% of the high yield bonds we bought paid off. So, you know, there's nothing wrong with it fundamentally, intrinsically.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/eb100222-a82f-46c9-ac2b-18f80d5dc74c/ https://minutesof.com/q/eb100222-a82f-46c9-ac2b-18f80d5dc74c/ “We're at the we're in the first inning of a very long unpredictable game. We don't know what the rules are or or have any idea how many innings there are” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/11062a4c-cd6d-4469-ba9c-a0712af200bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/11062a4c-cd6d-4469-ba9c-a0712af200bc/ “I think it was Walter Cronkite who said if you're not confused, you don't know what's going on. I would say if you think you know what's gonna happen,” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/90dcd68e-dc0f-4973-aebd-6bdcf011bb17/ https://minutesof.com/q/90dcd68e-dc0f-4973-aebd-6bdcf011bb17/ “one of my concerns is that AI moves faster than the ability of society to adjust to it. And that and that is a formula for disruption.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/972f8563-02fc-4bf5-88d4-438f4ab3b946/ https://minutesof.com/q/972f8563-02fc-4bf5-88d4-438f4ab3b946/ “some woman left OpenAI, started a company called Thinking Machine Labs, went out to raise money, and she said this company is going to engage in AI, but I can't tell you what we're going to do. It's a secret. And people gave her $2,000,000,000 for a sixth of the company.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/86b11b15-1235-48db-9723-c3ed41753f40/ https://minutesof.com/q/86b11b15-1235-48db-9723-c3ed41753f40/ “And I say in the memo, for example, that some woman left OpenAI, started a company called Thinking Machine Labs, went out to raise money, and she said this company is going to engage in AI, but I can't tell you what we're going to do. It's a secret. And people gave her $2,000,000,000 for a sixth of the company.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/844a5949-7cee-4939-bd32-201d78444230/ https://minutesof.com/q/844a5949-7cee-4939-bd32-201d78444230/ “There have been ninety seven or ninety eight three year periods by definition. And there have been only six which were better than the last three years.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/4dc34633-e51e-4654-95ca-6745ea363015/ https://minutesof.com/q/4dc34633-e51e-4654-95ca-6745ea363015/ “The S and P 500 stock index has been around for about a century. There have been ninety seven or ninety eight three year periods by definition.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/fe864198-3445-4007-a68d-7a65e10e7d0b/ https://minutesof.com/q/fe864198-3445-4007-a68d-7a65e10e7d0b/ “What the relationship means is that an asset that appears to be risky has to appear to offer a high return or else nobody will buy it.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/0c450801-47cb-4b14-8135-91dd3524a5a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c450801-47cb-4b14-8135-91dd3524a5a3/ “If a risky asset can be counted on to have a high return, then it's not risky. So it can't be true. It's incorrect on its face.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e1076922-0e8c-41c6-9c98-b4019d166124/ https://minutesof.com/q/e1076922-0e8c-41c6-9c98-b4019d166124/ “Risk, in my opinion, and my view has evolved, risk is the probability negative outcome, of an undesirable outcome. It is not the volatility of the stream.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/427e10dc-a1fc-4740-8469-fb8202f73a6d/ https://minutesof.com/q/427e10dc-a1fc-4740-8469-fb8202f73a6d/ “Risk, in my opinion, and my view has evolved, risk is the probability negative outcome, of an undesirable outcome.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/b7d6e3a2-4375-4b25-99eb-b181055d64bb/ https://minutesof.com/q/b7d6e3a2-4375-4b25-99eb-b181055d64bb/ “And given the, if you think about it, from 1980 when the inflation was solved, essentially to date, generally speaking, the more optimistic you were, the more money you made.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/397ea8d6-7232-401b-b0fa-bc2aa1e3b97d/ https://minutesof.com/q/397ea8d6-7232-401b-b0fa-bc2aa1e3b97d/ “And so that was very informative and it's very desirable to learn your lessons early and also preferable to learn your lessons when there's not a lot of money at stake, which I did.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/c93575ca-903b-48aa-af69-ce5db46b0370/ https://minutesof.com/q/c93575ca-903b-48aa-af69-ce5db46b0370/ “In every other walk of life, we buy more when things go on sale. In the markets, we sell more when things go on sale.” — Howard Marks, Brookfield Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:35:50 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/7557ecd4-97ce-4212-84c8-cd8928db0758/ https://minutesof.com/q/7557ecd4-97ce-4212-84c8-cd8928db0758/ “If you committed to spend money as we did on September 19 and you're not uncomfortable, there's something wrong with you.” — Howard Marks, Brookfield Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:35:50 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/54f688b6-7c78-4802-9381-297fb97302ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/54f688b6-7c78-4802-9381-297fb97302ed/ “The period, twenty three four five is for the S and P 500 is, I think, the seventh best three year period out of the last 100. Seventh out of a 100.” — Howard Marks, Brookfield Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:35:50 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/6ede688f-5cb5-4f3d-8846-8e3a62417ff7/ https://minutesof.com/q/6ede688f-5cb5-4f3d-8846-8e3a62417ff7/ “You're never going to have a bubble in paper stocks or timber stocks. It's too prosaic. People can say, well, we can tell how many houses you're going to build.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/83b67147-bef5-4405-b728-c2517c8dd342/ https://minutesof.com/q/83b67147-bef5-4405-b728-c2517c8dd342/ “I always make this point that the bubbles are very, very around something new because the imagination is untrammed and it can go off in a flight of fancy.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/af57e620-cfa5-49b3-8f31-2d2fe3bca123/ https://minutesof.com/q/af57e620-cfa5-49b3-8f31-2d2fe3bca123/ “I've never heard anybody tell me how AI is going to change the world. We know it's a powerful force. Can think, it can process data.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/98fd225e-01e2-46dd-88aa-bd3814d60365/ https://minutesof.com/q/98fd225e-01e2-46dd-88aa-bd3814d60365/ “In fact, every day the market goes up or down, but we don't think of those as losses. And yet, the private credit market moves down two points and the world comes apart.” — Marc Rowan, Marsh Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:54:43 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e91960f1-e867-4261-b7d8-8800785e0242/ https://minutesof.com/q/e91960f1-e867-4261-b7d8-8800785e0242/ “if you can produce The US GDP and eliminate half the entry level jobs, it could be more profitable or certainly more productive. But the question is, will it be more profitable?” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/eabc82e5-494a-417e-b05f-30c9883270cf/ https://minutesof.com/q/eabc82e5-494a-417e-b05f-30c9883270cf/ “I've never heard anybody tell me how AI is going to change the world. We know it's a powerful force. Can think, it can process data.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/b4df3931-1614-4084-b9aa-5f934f9f096f/ https://minutesof.com/q/b4df3931-1614-4084-b9aa-5f934f9f096f/ “But, you know, in the investment business, even when you're even when you think you're right, you shouldn't assume that it's more than $80.20.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/5c2356ed-97c5-4d19-97e2-1320523450df/ https://minutesof.com/q/5c2356ed-97c5-4d19-97e2-1320523450df/ “And the answer turns out to be that most investors, shoot for the stars and occasionally shoot themselves in the foot and wreck their record.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/06baad79-f1f5-482d-9c58-72a90792ac00/ https://minutesof.com/q/06baad79-f1f5-482d-9c58-72a90792ac00/ “Historically, if you bought at this PE ratio, your return over the next ten years averaged in the very low single digits. So I I think we're in a moderate return scenario.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e0d5eb77-7408-42e2-bfb4-1dfa461b1e6d/ https://minutesof.com/q/e0d5eb77-7408-42e2-bfb4-1dfa461b1e6d/ “And if Fed puts money artificially cheap, then it induces behavior like risk taking. It forces people into riskier activities because the returns on safe activities are so low.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/a3fcdc62-7fcb-41b8-8562-3e86fa218662/ https://minutesof.com/q/a3fcdc62-7fcb-41b8-8562-3e86fa218662/ “And the Fed manipulations are a form of price controls. You know, they control the price of money.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/549d9dfd-77f6-4067-a4dd-5494f8c0cd86/ https://minutesof.com/q/549d9dfd-77f6-4067-a4dd-5494f8c0cd86/ “And the Fed manipulations are a form of price controls. You know, they control the price of money. And if Fed puts money artificially cheap, then it induces behavior like risk taking.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/c67e003d-fd04-4ee4-b6f8-9e893bb904b5/ https://minutesof.com/q/c67e003d-fd04-4ee4-b6f8-9e893bb904b5/ “So when other people are acting imprudently and mindlessly and carefree, we should be worried.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/ee65997d-6da4-4214-80df-e672fed3c154/ https://minutesof.com/q/ee65997d-6da4-4214-80df-e672fed3c154/ “Buffett says, the less prudence with which others conduct our affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own affairs.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/1fb3d2d9-50ad-4d59-9341-035352c7b2ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/1fb3d2d9-50ad-4d59-9341-035352c7b2ed/ “I think there's relatively little doubt that AI will change the world. And AI has been successful as an investment, and people are piling in, and there's some fear about being left out.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 13 Oct 2025 16:15:11 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/ee221612-6fb6-4b8e-9cc4-b77f0adade2b/ https://minutesof.com/q/ee221612-6fb6-4b8e-9cc4-b77f0adade2b/ “And I don't detect that level of mania at this time, so I have not put the bubble label Right. On this on this incident.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 13 Oct 2025 16:15:11 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/312f7e4b-2ac4-441d-9842-48da86db0817/ https://minutesof.com/q/312f7e4b-2ac4-441d-9842-48da86db0817/ “And I don't detect that level of mania at this time, so I have not put the bubble label Right.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 13 Oct 2025 16:15:11 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/d7215c0b-bbe4-4d4f-abf8-8d4abfb834e5/ https://minutesof.com/q/d7215c0b-bbe4-4d4f-abf8-8d4abfb834e5/ “To me, the main ingredient in bubbles is psychological excess. There's no such thing as a price too high.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 13 Oct 2025 16:15:11 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/937e8e7b-afa5-4c75-b1a2-f5c776934a01/ https://minutesof.com/q/937e8e7b-afa5-4c75-b1a2-f5c776934a01/ “Can you imagine the world today without the internet? And yet I imagine that 99% of the internet stocks that came out are worthless today.” — Howard Marks, The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/a4009199-2a44-4e39-87b6-bd1f93442af6/ https://minutesof.com/q/a4009199-2a44-4e39-87b6-bd1f93442af6/ “in real life things fluctuate between pretty good and not so hot but in the minds of investors, they go from flawless to hopeless.” — Howard Marks, The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/a7b54a13-5ce4-4332-b52f-b9e726c373e0/ https://minutesof.com/q/a7b54a13-5ce4-4332-b52f-b9e726c373e0/ “I can have more of the things that go up a lot than you do or less of the things that go down a lot than you do.” — Howard Marks, The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/6651d07a-729f-413a-8676-3c9a00e9851a/ https://minutesof.com/q/6651d07a-729f-413a-8676-3c9a00e9851a/ “One of the biggest mistakes you can make in life, but especially in investing, is to assume that you're smart and everybody else is dumb.” — Howard Marks, The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/2cfb6586-9ebf-4820-86f3-943d957548ba/ https://minutesof.com/q/2cfb6586-9ebf-4820-86f3-943d957548ba/ “the efficient market hypothesis posits that because of the concerted action of investors, prices converge with fair value, everything is priced right, and you can't beat the market.” — Howard Marks, The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/f56132ef-8542-48e5-8bc4-40f8b262db46/ https://minutesof.com/q/f56132ef-8542-48e5-8bc4-40f8b262db46/ “I'd say, look at this piece of junk that got issued yesterday. There's something wrong. If a deal like this can get done, the world is exercising inadequate prudence.” — Howard Marks, My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/ff7424d8-1a19-4321-b1c0-f2bfcbb5edd1/ https://minutesof.com/q/ff7424d8-1a19-4321-b1c0-f2bfcbb5edd1/ “The only thing I'm sure of is if you zig when they zig, you're not gonna outperform.” — Howard Marks, My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/4bc31d58-ece3-46a0-a796-87bbae65e5df/ https://minutesof.com/q/4bc31d58-ece3-46a0-a796-87bbae65e5df/ “I came across a great quote within the last year from a guy who's a retired trader, When the time comes to buy, you won't want to.” — Howard Marks, My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/514dfc4a-c96f-43fe-9093-1cc71ada73ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/514dfc4a-c96f-43fe-9093-1cc71ada73ed/ “And it showed that historically, you bought the S and P when the PE ratio was 23, in every case, there were no exceptions.” — Howard Marks, My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/4213e51c-a8b5-4a95-b80f-c7212a015b02/ https://minutesof.com/q/4213e51c-a8b5-4a95-b80f-c7212a015b02/ “I think the right model for thinking about whether we need risk control isn't American football, it's soccer. In American football, the team with the ball has the offense on the field.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/489e3398-d64d-4c35-967c-04dab6427163/ https://minutesof.com/q/489e3398-d64d-4c35-967c-04dab6427163/ “I believe imprecise qualitative expert opinion about the probability of loss is far more useful than precise but largely irrelevant numbers concerning past and projected volatility.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e7ad3825-8b33-4a35-aab2-c51ae95a5ff4/ https://minutesof.com/q/e7ad3825-8b33-4a35-aab2-c51ae95a5ff4/ “What the upward sloping line, the positive correlation, means is that investments that are perceived as being risky have to be perceived as offering higher returns to induce people to make those investments.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/d40ac94d-a8ef-4464-b657-dbcda625afe2/ https://minutesof.com/q/d40ac94d-a8ef-4464-b657-dbcda625afe2/ “Very simply, if it were true that riskier assets produce higher returns, then they wouldn't be riskier, would they? So that can't be the right explanation.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/754fd957-0ee5-4297-a1b8-1a38da695b04/ https://minutesof.com/q/754fd957-0ee5-4297-a1b8-1a38da695b04/ “There are no assets that are so good that they can't become overpriced and dangerous. There are very few assets that are so bad that they can't be cheap enough to be attractive as investments.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/ebcba1d0-4b49-4a5b-9f9f-7380c9e7d67c/ https://minutesof.com/q/ebcba1d0-4b49-4a5b-9f9f-7380c9e7d67c/ “My conclusion was it's not what you buy, it's what you pay. And investment success doesn't come from buying good things, but from buying things well.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/81c17d52-d8e1-45ff-b062-8070affbb907/ https://minutesof.com/q/81c17d52-d8e1-45ff-b062-8070affbb907/ “I think it's important to grasp a concept. Risk is hidden, and risk is deceptive. Loss is what happens when risk, the potential for loss, collides with negative events.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/20951606-e2c1-4f22-862d-030410142379/ https://minutesof.com/q/20951606-e2c1-4f22-862d-030410142379/ “My friend Rick Kane once said that 96% of financial history has occurred within two standard deviations, but everything interesting has happened outside of two standard deviations.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e0547f6c-0d6d-4908-a974-b5f8f95d6f86/ https://minutesof.com/q/e0547f6c-0d6d-4908-a974-b5f8f95d6f86/ “The fact that you experienced a downward fluctuation might have been uncomfortable for a little while. But by the time the new high is achieved, you're you're you're back to to your cost and more.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e98ed728-ffee-449e-8878-04b6f3cfdd07/ https://minutesof.com/q/e98ed728-ffee-449e-8878-04b6f3cfdd07/ “I was writing my first memo about risk in 2006. I wrote about my belief that risk is not quantifiable in advance.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/db26f4f5-9fbf-46f2-99a3-0dd13ef42476/ https://minutesof.com/q/db26f4f5-9fbf-46f2-99a3-0dd13ef42476/ “So if risk is not volatility, then what is it? And in my opinion, and in the real world sense, risk is the probability of loss.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/ee5cc03b-2444-4a73-a5db-36ccc65c9614/ https://minutesof.com/q/ee5cc03b-2444-4a73-a5db-36ccc65c9614/ “The academics developing investment theory, largely at the University of Chicago in the early sixties, just a couple years before I got there, adopted volatility as their measure of risk.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/b38b9121-d99a-424e-835d-2a3de26488c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/b38b9121-d99a-424e-835d-2a3de26488c6/ “And if if they ever kept a scorecard on the things that they wrote about what's gonna happen tomorrow, they would see that on average they get it right half the time” — Howard Marks, David Perell Wed, 21 Feb 2024 13:20:30 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/7a85bcb9-79e8-4503-a876-aa0c40c8274c/ https://minutesof.com/q/7a85bcb9-79e8-4503-a876-aa0c40c8274c/ “So I'm not putting myself at risk, because some people are gonna say, well, that's what he says. I'm not into that.” — Howard Marks, David Perell Wed, 21 Feb 2024 13:20:30 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/b82c0393-1378-46ba-b2de-05fa12a14c3c/ https://minutesof.com/q/b82c0393-1378-46ba-b2de-05fa12a14c3c/ “One thing within your control is the quality of your output. Amen. You should have a simple goal to put out a product which is the highest quality you can.” — Howard Marks, David Perell Wed, 21 Feb 2024 13:20:30 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/f2f4d520-7ae0-42a3-a9f8-8bf341e8e757/ https://minutesof.com/q/f2f4d520-7ae0-42a3-a9f8-8bf341e8e757/ “it's not just whether the event was positive, it's how people reacted to the event that determines the impact on the security prices.” — Howard Marks, David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/b2c09802-0842-4bad-8cfc-049ddb997836/ https://minutesof.com/q/b2c09802-0842-4bad-8cfc-049ddb997836/ “Some people come up to me and say, yes. You're right. Interest rates are are low. Nobody has said this is a major change as you say it is.” — Howard Marks, David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/af8caea7-2f48-42d7-9544-2de012202e2f/ https://minutesof.com/q/af8caea7-2f48-42d7-9544-2de012202e2f/ “Everybody has the same influences, everybody thinks pretty much the same, everybody anoints the same winners and criticizes the same losers, and obviously tomorrow's winners are usually found on the pile of today's losers,” — Howard Marks, Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/40d83787-9223-4915-8b29-888b8ceefe5a/ https://minutesof.com/q/40d83787-9223-4915-8b29-888b8ceefe5a/ “successful investing requires the adoption of uncomfortably idiosyncratic positions. Everybody has the same influences, everybody thinks pretty much the same,” — Howard Marks, Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/5686fbcc-3d21-4370-9c6e-24f8c45f1554/ https://minutesof.com/q/5686fbcc-3d21-4370-9c6e-24f8c45f1554/ “And if it were true that every overpriced markets reverts and becomes fairly priced, then we would never get a bubble because they would stop going up here.” — Howard Marks, Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/789539a4-30c2-45f4-b54f-4e486f74c772/ https://minutesof.com/q/789539a4-30c2-45f4-b54f-4e486f74c772/ “Either the financial system is going to melt down or it's not. If it melts down, it doesn't matter whether we bought or not, because it's, you know, it's game over for everything.” — Howard Marks, Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/7057e7f8-abf8-4b22-8214-8ec5cd85b4ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/7057e7f8-abf8-4b22-8214-8ec5cd85b4ed/ “I'd hold up an article from the news, I said, Look at this piece of crap that got issued yesterday. If a company can raise money on this basis, there's something wrong in the market.” — Howard Marks, Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/b9b2d031-53ee-4df0-af0e-c4fd4cac307c/ https://minutesof.com/q/b9b2d031-53ee-4df0-af0e-c4fd4cac307c/ “the outcome of pulling a ticket from the bowl, the outcome of which investment performance will occur, never amounts to one ticket picked from among many.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/35a5ca28-9938-4603-b4bf-66ef606dc746/ https://minutesof.com/q/35a5ca28-9938-4603-b4bf-66ef606dc746/ “prior to the subprime crisis, the fraudulent mortgages that gave rise to the global financial crisis, there had never been a nationwide wave of mortgage defaults.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/2ffb4237-944a-4551-b123-a6446d6da144/ https://minutesof.com/q/2ffb4237-944a-4551-b123-a6446d6da144/ “the riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there's no risk. Because when police when people believe there's no risk, they act in very risky ways, which makes the world a risky place.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e2a1de51-8e0e-49c5-8e8f-70a83aa5c263/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2a1de51-8e0e-49c5-8e8f-70a83aa5c263/ “I believe that the riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there's no risk.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/42eb0c6d-a03c-40a8-bbba-8934082a4882/ https://minutesof.com/q/42eb0c6d-a03c-40a8-bbba-8934082a4882/ “Even when it's over, you can't tell. Was that a safe investment that it was sure to produce a double? Or was it a risky investment where you got lucky?” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e5d1a12a-ad5c-4c65-a05c-f10112a90a29/ https://minutesof.com/q/e5d1a12a-ad5c-4c65-a05c-f10112a90a29/ “I believe that achieving an average return with below average risk is an equally significant accomplish, but easily overlooked because only the risk is evident, only the return is evident.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/24cf4c4c-1739-4e98-aba9-4b4c1ed9993c/ https://minutesof.com/q/24cf4c4c-1739-4e98-aba9-4b4c1ed9993c/ “Now remember, the four worst words in the world were, it's different this time, the seven worst words in the world are too much money chasing too few deals.” — Howard Marks, Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/141db8c3-58fe-4d28-880c-52e84612ca27/ https://minutesof.com/q/141db8c3-58fe-4d28-880c-52e84612ca27/ “you don't need conservatism, caution, risk control, discipline, patience or selectivity. You need money and the nerve to spend it.” — Howard Marks, Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/c23e0792-59bc-4c9f-9390-7324d17636cf/ https://minutesof.com/q/c23e0792-59bc-4c9f-9390-7324d17636cf/ “I think that if you want to exist in the investment world and you want to, you can just buy and hold good things if you want to take that approach, But if you want to improve upon that, I think it's very important to understand the ebb and flow of psychology and act accordingly.” — Howard Marks, Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/d7ba0d31-e2e2-44d2-84ea-bc6bf8ce6923/ https://minutesof.com/q/d7ba0d31-e2e2-44d2-84ea-bc6bf8ce6923/ “And, you know, Richard Feynman, the great physicist, said that, physics would be much harder if electrons had feelings.” — Howard Marks, Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/d158d96f-5cea-429f-bdea-da9708393ef7/ https://minutesof.com/q/d158d96f-5cea-429f-bdea-da9708393ef7/ “If you say to them, you know, well that happened twenty and forty years ago and it ended badly, what they say is they use the four worst words in the world.” — Howard Marks, Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/817a20da-34c3-4fd4-a1d3-51a1a13049af/ https://minutesof.com/q/817a20da-34c3-4fd4-a1d3-51a1a13049af/ “He gets a statement from Fidelity. He opens it up, and it says, the yield on your fund is now zero. He grabs the phone.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/2b265d1b-4c51-4173-843d-3bb42879bdc9/ https://minutesof.com/q/2b265d1b-4c51-4173-843d-3bb42879bdc9/ “What percentile do you think that fund was in for the whole fourteen years? Four. Four. And if you think about it, it's really almost mysterious. Why the fourth, not the thirty seventh?” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/74a1fb8f-6f0c-42c4-9425-84094a591b0f/ https://minutesof.com/q/74a1fb8f-6f0c-42c4-9425-84094a591b0f/ “Then you go to the high yield bond business, you invest in the worst companies in America, you make the most money.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/e18a5334-6b40-466f-8b22-677c4c73c6b8/ https://minutesof.com/q/e18a5334-6b40-466f-8b22-677c4c73c6b8/ “if you bought the bonds of Hewlett Packard, PerkinElmer, Texas Instruments, Merck, Lilly, Xerox, IBM, Kodak, Polaroid, AIG, Coca Cola, and Procter and Gamble, and if you bought them all in 'sixty eight and you held them until 'seventy three, you lost 90% of your money.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/a2b1e9db-0285-436e-879e-ef420fde0680/ https://minutesof.com/q/a2b1e9db-0285-436e-879e-ef420fde0680/ “if you bought the bonds of Hewlett Packard, PerkinElmer, Texas Instruments, Merck, Lilly, Xerox, IBM, Kodak, Polaroid, AIG, Coca Cola, and Procter and Gamble, and if you bought them all in 'sixty eight and you held them until 'seventy three, you lost 90% of your money. Why? Because they were overpriced.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/54c9662a-8ca0-4920-9d34-578a7f93a970/ https://minutesof.com/q/54c9662a-8ca0-4920-9d34-578a7f93a970/ “So if you buy a high quality asset and I say in the book, there's a guy on the radio when I lived in LA,” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/37ded17b-44f8-411e-bfa2-a56aa9c591d3/ https://minutesof.com/q/37ded17b-44f8-411e-bfa2-a56aa9c591d3/ “risk means more things can happen than will happen. And again, this is profound in my opinion. In the economic world, people generally make their decisions based on something called expected value,” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/9735f2b6-6ebe-47de-840d-e5e4a7e25b7c/ https://minutesof.com/q/9735f2b6-6ebe-47de-840d-e5e4a7e25b7c/ “There's a professor at the London Business School who put it succinctly. He said risk means more things can happen than will happen. And again, this is profound in my opinion.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/6e71b30e-a021-477d-b97a-c98b20dbe242/ https://minutesof.com/q/6e71b30e-a021-477d-b97a-c98b20dbe242/ “you should not act as if the things that should happen are the things that will happen. Again, in the world of the physical sciences, you can probably bet that that's true.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/a04ecac2-80aa-482e-b894-63542718e09a/ https://minutesof.com/q/a04ecac2-80aa-482e-b894-63542718e09a/ “good decisions fail to work all the time. Bad decisions work all the time. The investment business is full of people who are, quote, right for the wrong reason.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology https://minutesof.com/q/850c3776-7946-4dc4-a764-6a99f40dab95/ https://minutesof.com/q/850c3776-7946-4dc4-a764-6a99f40dab95/ “you can't tell from an outcome whether a decision was good or bad. It's very important. Most people don't understand this. Totally counterintuitive.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 market psychology