monetary policy: everyone on the record — The Minutes https://minutesof.com/on/monetary-policy/ Everyone on the record about monetary policy: 43 verbatim quotes from 5 people, December 2019 to October 2024, in one chronology, each with a timestamp… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:33:06 +0000 John Williams: Williams says potential changes to bank liquidity requirements may eventually reduce reserve de https://minutesof.com/q/f92c5f1f-dc40-495f-bfc9-115a2ab0f6a5/ https://minutesof.com/q/f92c5f1f-dc40-495f-bfc9-115a2ab0f6a5/ “In particular, future potential changes to bank regulatory liquidity requirements may eventually reduce demand for reserves.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams concludes there is no single best way to supply reserves across different jurisdiction https://minutesof.com/q/bcb6d55d-d1c2-4caa-9a73-890be46c0dc6/ https://minutesof.com/q/bcb6d55d-d1c2-4caa-9a73-890be46c0dc6/ “In other words, there is no single best way to supply reserves; rather, the best mix of tools depends on circumstances and policy preferences unique to each jurisdiction.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams cautions that overconfidence in r-star estimates risks unmooring inflation expectation https://minutesof.com/q/e56ba250-d66a-47a8-804e-ae6b47a288c5/ https://minutesof.com/q/e56ba250-d66a-47a8-804e-ae6b47a288c5/ “Given the wide range of uncertainties, acting as if one knows the star variables when making policy can lead to persistent deviations of inflation from the target that risk unmooring inflation expectations.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams clarifies future reserve management purchases will not represent a change in monetary https://minutesof.com/q/3c91b369-34d9-454a-a746-ef497c47240b/ https://minutesof.com/q/3c91b369-34d9-454a-a746-ef497c47240b/ “Such reserve management purchases will represent the natural next stage of the implementation of the FOMC’s ample reserves strategy and in no way represent a change in the underlying stance of monetary policy.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams clarifies future reserve management purchases will not represent a change in monetary https://minutesof.com/q/3c91b369-34d9-454a-a746-ef497c47240b/ https://minutesof.com/q/3c91b369-34d9-454a-a746-ef497c47240b/ “Such reserve management purchases will represent the natural next stage of the implementation of the FOMC’s ample reserves strategy and in no way represent a change in the underlying stance of monetary policy.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams says U.S. r-star models show only a modest quarter to half point increase since 2018. https://minutesof.com/q/f79e6242-2b3e-4e98-8e70-6b864944ec33/ https://minutesof.com/q/f79e6242-2b3e-4e98-8e70-6b864944ec33/ “This finding that r-star has not meaningfully rebounded is in line with evidence from a variety of models of r-star in the U.S., which show a relatively modest increase of one-quarter to one-half of a percentage point in real-time estimates of r-star between the third quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2025.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams sees policy as modestly restrictive and room for further near-term rate cuts toward ne https://minutesof.com/q/f2c1dfaf-8dff-4a54-a41b-be3c3136b4b9/ https://minutesof.com/q/f2c1dfaf-8dff-4a54-a41b-be3c3136b4b9/ “Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral,” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams argues mean spread equaling target does not prove policy optimality under uncertainty. https://minutesof.com/q/d0d60d54-0171-4dcb-a1d1-4387457a2e26/ https://minutesof.com/q/d0d60d54-0171-4dcb-a1d1-4387457a2e26/ “Therefore, one cannot judge whether the policy is optimal simply because the mean spread equals its target.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams says monthly RMP pace can likely be significantly reduced after April. https://minutesof.com/q/9b8c5e49-e626-4b93-b5fa-7af3df494181/ https://minutesof.com/q/9b8c5e49-e626-4b93-b5fa-7af3df494181/ “But, as the Desk said in its statement in December, the monthly pace can likely be significantly reduced after April.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams says monthly RMP pace will likely be adjusted soon after April tax season. https://minutesof.com/q/ee37eab4-0adc-408e-a9d7-ecd267336110/ https://minutesof.com/q/ee37eab4-0adc-408e-a9d7-ecd267336110/ “An adjustment to our monthly purchase pace is likely to happen soon. Beyond April, the TGA is likely to decline as the Treasury uses the funds it receives via tax inflows to pay its obligations.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams argues centrally clearing standing repo operations would improve participation and enh https://minutesof.com/q/19de094f-25f2-46af-9b36-22bdaa172708/ https://minutesof.com/q/19de094f-25f2-46af-9b36-22bdaa172708/ “Strictly from a monetary policy implementation perspective, there are likely benefits from offering a centrally cleared version of SRPs.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams sees benefits from centrally clearing standing repo operations to improve participatio https://minutesof.com/q/1ca2de75-dfad-47c0-959a-797f3ccd184a/ https://minutesof.com/q/1ca2de75-dfad-47c0-959a-797f3ccd184a/ “Centrally clearing SRPs would be one way to reduce such costs. Strictly from a monetary policy implementation perspective, there are likely benefits from offering a centrally cleared version of SRPs.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams sees benefits from centrally clearing standing repo operations to improve participatio https://minutesof.com/q/1ca2de75-dfad-47c0-959a-797f3ccd184a/ https://minutesof.com/q/1ca2de75-dfad-47c0-959a-797f3ccd184a/ “Centrally clearing SRPs would be one way to reduce such costs. Strictly from a monetary policy implementation perspective, there are likely benefits from offering a centrally cleared version of SRPs.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams reports FOMC maintained fed funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent at mid-June meeting. https://minutesof.com/q/9575f713-e90c-4f02-9dfb-f75bcb79be5b/ https://minutesof.com/q/9575f713-e90c-4f02-9dfb-f75bcb79be5b/ “Accordingly, at its meeting in mid-June, the FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent in support of the Fed’s dual mandate.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams says further rate cuts will eventually be warranted to prevent policy from becoming in https://minutesof.com/q/83a10d3b-cfb2-4a60-b531-309171f74bdd/ https://minutesof.com/q/83a10d3b-cfb2-4a60-b531-309171f74bdd/ “Looking further ahead, if inflation follows the path I expect, further reductions in the federal funds rate will eventually be warranted to prevent monetary policy from inadvertently becoming more restrictive.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams says further rate cuts will eventually be warranted to prevent policy from becoming in https://minutesof.com/q/83a10d3b-cfb2-4a60-b531-309171f74bdd/ https://minutesof.com/q/83a10d3b-cfb2-4a60-b531-309171f74bdd/ “Looking further ahead, if inflation follows the path I expect, further reductions in the federal funds rate will eventually be warranted to prevent monetary policy from inadvertently becoming more restrictive.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams anticipates moving interest rates toward neutral stance over time if progress continue https://minutesof.com/q/a25d2526-b185-43c4-a939-325b3c8c3d10/ https://minutesof.com/q/a25d2526-b185-43c4-a939-325b3c8c3d10/ “Looking ahead, if progress on our dual mandate goals continues as in my baseline forecast, I anticipate it will become appropriate to move interest rates toward a more neutral stance over time.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams says ample reserves lie between $1.5 trillion and the current $3.2 trillion level. https://minutesof.com/q/1ef9e3dd-4051-4826-a29a-d167064aafdf/ https://minutesof.com/q/1ef9e3dd-4051-4826-a29a-d167064aafdf/ “As I said, it’s hard to estimate exactly what constitutes an ample level of reserves. We know that number is lower than the current $3.2 trillion, since market indicators still point to reserves remaining abundant.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams argues historical scholarship shows monetary policy extends beyond short-term rates to https://minutesof.com/q/b2e9c632-f082-487f-b2e2-3079b4600e49/ https://minutesof.com/q/b2e9c632-f082-487f-b2e2-3079b4600e49/ “However, this narrow understanding of monetary policy is alien to the history of monetary economics and central bank practice.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams argues historical scholarship shows monetary policy extends beyond short-term rates to https://minutesof.com/q/b2e9c632-f082-487f-b2e2-3079b4600e49/ https://minutesof.com/q/b2e9c632-f082-487f-b2e2-3079b4600e49/ “However, this narrow understanding of monetary policy is alien to the history of monetary economics and central bank practice.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams confirms FOMC kept the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. https://minutesof.com/q/1285e436-2640-4e06-8d21-75d38dfaf27a/ https://minutesof.com/q/1285e436-2640-4e06-8d21-75d38dfaf27a/ “the FOMC decided at its meeting last week to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams critiques labeling forward guidance and balance sheet policies as unconventional, sugg https://minutesof.com/q/b31c9ebd-f599-4257-8078-09801315aae5/ https://minutesof.com/q/b31c9ebd-f599-4257-8078-09801315aae5/ “Indeed, there even has been a label attached to it: “conventional monetary policy.” By implication, other monetary policy actions that have been used—such as forward guidance and balance sheet policies—are deemed “unconventional,” and therefore somewhat suspect.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams notes Latin American central banks raised rates before the Fed during COVID inflation, https://minutesof.com/q/0c99c63b-e8bb-41f7-b9dd-bfc081dbbe4a/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c99c63b-e8bb-41f7-b9dd-bfc081dbbe4a/ “Until COVID-19, central banks in emerging economies, including many in Latin America, typically had followed the lead of the Fed when responding to shocks.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams says 75 basis points of cuts in 2025 moved policy closer to neutral from modestly rest https://minutesof.com/q/666eafe7-7515-4e4b-bbc9-f1746c174c60/ https://minutesof.com/q/666eafe7-7515-4e4b-bbc9-f1746c174c60/ “By reducing the target range for the federal funds rate by a cumulative 75 basis points last year, the FOMC has moved the modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy closer to neutral.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams says 75 basis points of cuts in 2025 moved policy closer to neutral from modestly rest https://minutesof.com/q/666eafe7-7515-4e4b-bbc9-f1746c174c60/ https://minutesof.com/q/666eafe7-7515-4e4b-bbc9-f1746c174c60/ “By reducing the target range for the federal funds rate by a cumulative 75 basis points last year, the FOMC has moved the modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy closer to neutral.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams highlights June FOMC change allowing temporary pauses in reserve management purchases https://minutesof.com/q/770297c4-8eee-4335-a90a-1d1ebae7acf2/ https://minutesof.com/q/770297c4-8eee-4335-a90a-1d1ebae7acf2/ “Many of you will have noticed that the FOMC implementation note was changed at the June meeting to make explicit that temporary pauses in RMPs could occur if money market conditions warrant.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams describes how ample reserves and international facilities support dollar liquidity and https://minutesof.com/q/8764bb3d-0171-4c4b-b164-041fa475c480/ https://minutesof.com/q/8764bb3d-0171-4c4b-b164-041fa475c480/ “3 International facilities including the central bank swap lines and the Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) Repo Facility help ensure well-functioning U.S. dollar funding markets domestically and abroad.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams outlines three key features for monetary policy: consistent strategy, readiness to act https://minutesof.com/q/74b959fc-1234-4c1d-a3fe-7eb64c79a6ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/74b959fc-1234-4c1d-a3fe-7eb64c79a6ae/ “Third, it implies being clear-eyed and disciplined in adapting to and communicating the changing economic landscape and resulting policy trade-offs and decisions.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams explains ample reserves deliver adequate liquidity to maintain rate control and smooth https://minutesof.com/q/d9c1d41c-447a-4969-b4d7-4c90d7745940/ https://minutesof.com/q/d9c1d41c-447a-4969-b4d7-4c90d7745940/ “In the Fed’s monetary policy implementation framework, an ample supply of U.S. dollar reserves delivers adequate liquidity to the banking system, helping to maintain rate control and smooth market functioning.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams explains ample reserves deliver adequate liquidity to maintain rate control and smooth https://minutesof.com/q/d9c1d41c-447a-4969-b4d7-4c90d7745940/ https://minutesof.com/q/d9c1d41c-447a-4969-b4d7-4c90d7745940/ “In the Fed’s monetary policy implementation framework, an ample supply of U.S. dollar reserves delivers adequate liquidity to the banking system, helping to maintain rate control and smooth market functioning.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams states inflation is at about 4 percent, well above the 2 percent goal. https://minutesof.com/q/4d86b5a9-877a-4f22-b6cd-044637367d1f/ https://minutesof.com/q/4d86b5a9-877a-4f22-b6cd-044637367d1f/ “Inflation is unquestionably too high at about 4 percent, 1 well above the FOMC’s longer-run goal of 2 percent.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams says inflation is about 4 percent, well above the 2 percent goal, driven by three fact https://minutesof.com/q/385e05c1-152d-493e-b199-f685057f2b10/ https://minutesof.com/q/385e05c1-152d-493e-b199-f685057f2b10/ “Inflation is unquestionably too high at about 4 percent, 1 well above the FOMC’s longer-run goal of 2 percent. This elevation primarily reflects three drivers.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams argues specific market factors shifted the reserve demand curve downward rather than i https://minutesof.com/q/8d0becfd-b895-42a9-994d-678e5fade4cb/ https://minutesof.com/q/8d0becfd-b895-42a9-994d-678e5fade4cb/ “I interpret the remaining factors (seasonally low bill supply, increased dealer repo intermediation capacity, reduced repo financing demand, and a temporary increase in government-sponsored enterprise [GSE] repo investment activity) as ones that induced a downward shift in the reserve demand curve.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams warns low r-star means more frequent lower bound constraints on policy effectiveness. https://minutesof.com/q/5cb32714-d4d4-4eaa-bec6-877c2f88b8ab/ https://minutesof.com/q/5cb32714-d4d4-4eaa-bec6-877c2f88b8ab/ “A low r-star implies the economy can encounter more frequent and longer periods when monetary policy is constrained by the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates, potentially impeding the achievement of a central bank’s inflation goals and other macroeconomic objectives.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams warns low r-star means more frequent lower bound constraints on policy effectiveness. https://minutesof.com/q/5cb32714-d4d4-4eaa-bec6-877c2f88b8ab/ https://minutesof.com/q/5cb32714-d4d4-4eaa-bec6-877c2f88b8ab/ “A low r-star implies the economy can encounter more frequent and longer periods when monetary policy is constrained by the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates, potentially impeding the achievement of a central bank’s inflation goals and other macroeconomic objectives.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy John Williams: Williams reports Treasury repo rates fell 15 basis points below IORB in mid-May, causing two ba https://minutesof.com/q/f9727a72-a98f-4803-a265-497c78c476db/ https://minutesof.com/q/f9727a72-a98f-4803-a265-497c78c476db/ “Treasury repo rates later notably declined, falling as low as 15 basis points below the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) in mid-May, though they have since rebounded.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches monetary policy Kevin Warsh: Warsh says the updates reflect five years of economic lessons to enhance policy effectiveness and https://minutesof.com/q/0c64b8f7-1c09-4e4f-95a9-664fda4ac5cb/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c64b8f7-1c09-4e4f-95a9-664fda4ac5cb/ “Today's updates reflect lessons from the economy over the past five years, and are intended to enhance the transparency, accountability, and effectiveness of monetary policy.” — Kevin Warsh, FOMC press conferences (video and transcript) monetary policy Kevin Warsh: Warsh announces the updated consensus statement emphasizes promoting maximum employment and stabl https://minutesof.com/q/2e7359ec-6e03-429f-bf85-ec54d314c078/ https://minutesof.com/q/2e7359ec-6e03-429f-bf85-ec54d314c078/ “The updated statement, also commonly known as the consensus statement, emphasizes that the FOMC's monetary policy strategy is designed to promote the congressionally-assigned goals of maximum employment and stable prices across a broad range of economic conditions for the benefit and well-being of all Americans.” — Kevin Warsh, FOMC press conferences (video and transcript) monetary policy Marc Rowan: Rowan questions Fed rate cuts given wide-open markets, record equity highs, and rising real estate https://minutesof.com/q/356dc4c5-3329-4dbb-aa7d-79019a50dbe5/ https://minutesof.com/q/356dc4c5-3329-4dbb-aa7d-79019a50dbe5/ “The notion that we would cut rates. Financial markets are wide open. Equities are at all time high. Financing is available. Real estate prices are going up” — Marc Rowan, Bloomberg Television Wed, 02 Oct 2024 13:14:05 +0000 monetary policy Howard Marks: Marks forecasts Fed funds rate will settle between two and four percent, not zero to two. https://minutesof.com/q/a2cfb255-5998-4896-9e5d-c0f3bb57a9ee/ https://minutesof.com/q/a2cfb255-5998-4896-9e5d-c0f3bb57a9ee/ “what I said in the memo is that rates are likely to be between two and four, not between zero and two, the Fed funds rate.” — Howard Marks, David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 monetary policy Stanley Druckenmiller: Druckenmiller blames the financial crisis on easy money bubbles and questions current l https://minutesof.com/q/f576d218-9c3a-4f7f-b435-3eddc15d45ce/ https://minutesof.com/q/f576d218-9c3a-4f7f-b435-3eddc15d45ce/ “I will go to my grave believing that that financial crisis happened because of bubbles created by easy money. And I just don't understand why we need interest rates where they are now.” — Stanley Druckenmiller, Bloomberg Television Mon, 06 Jan 2020 18:44:41 +0000 monetary policy Stanley Druckenmiller: Druckenmiller notes the US is running a trillion dollar deficit at full employment alon https://minutesof.com/q/29a5e5a4-38fb-4e45-83e5-bdaaa5f077cf/ https://minutesof.com/q/29a5e5a4-38fb-4e45-83e5-bdaaa5f077cf/ “We're running a trillion dollar deficit at full employment. Apparently, we're gonna have some sort of green stimulus in Europe, and we have negative real rates everywhere and negative absolute rates a lot of places.” — Stanley Druckenmiller, Bloomberg Television Mon, 06 Jan 2020 18:44:41 +0000 monetary policy Stanley Druckenmiller: I look back and the core PCE was one and a half in '98 and '99 when Greenspan started r https://minutesof.com/q/2e8b8dc4-e67f-4ad2-ab7e-e8aeaaa4f642/ https://minutesof.com/q/2e8b8dc4-e67f-4ad2-ab7e-e8aeaaa4f642/ “I look back and the core PCE was one and a half in '98 and '99 when Greenspan started raising rates again from 475 is currently one seven and he's got them at 1.5.” — Stanley Druckenmiller, Bloomberg Television Thu, 19 Dec 2019 02:48:34 +0000 monetary policy