rate path: everyone on the record — The Minutes https://minutesof.com/on/rate-path/ Everyone on the record about rate path: 14 verbatim quotes from 2 people, July 2026 to August 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a link to… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:33:11 +0000 John Williams: Williams says U.S. r-star models show only a modest quarter to half point increase since 2018. https://minutesof.com/q/f79e6242-2b3e-4e98-8e70-6b864944ec33/ https://minutesof.com/q/f79e6242-2b3e-4e98-8e70-6b864944ec33/ “This finding that r-star has not meaningfully rebounded is in line with evidence from a variety of models of r-star in the U.S., which show a relatively modest increase of one-quarter to one-half of a percentage point in real-time estimates of r-star between the third quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2025.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches rate path John Williams: Williams sees policy as modestly restrictive and room for further near-term rate cuts toward ne https://minutesof.com/q/f2c1dfaf-8dff-4a54-a41b-be3c3136b4b9/ https://minutesof.com/q/f2c1dfaf-8dff-4a54-a41b-be3c3136b4b9/ “Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral,” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches rate path John Williams: Williams expects inflation to fall to 3.25 percent by year-end, reaching 2 percent target in 20 https://minutesof.com/q/989b070c-1a42-45f6-aa78-1a5169a38365/ https://minutesof.com/q/989b070c-1a42-45f6-aa78-1a5169a38365/ “For the reasons I outlined a moment ago, I expect overall inflation to decline to around 3-1/4 percent by year-end, then continue on a glide path toward our 2 percent goal in 2027 and land on target in 2028.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches rate path John Williams: Williams reports FOMC maintained fed funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent at mid-June meeting. https://minutesof.com/q/9575f713-e90c-4f02-9dfb-f75bcb79be5b/ https://minutesof.com/q/9575f713-e90c-4f02-9dfb-f75bcb79be5b/ “Accordingly, at its meeting in mid-June, the FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent in support of the Fed’s dual mandate.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches rate path John Williams: Williams says further rate cuts will eventually be warranted to prevent policy from becoming in https://minutesof.com/q/83a10d3b-cfb2-4a60-b531-309171f74bdd/ https://minutesof.com/q/83a10d3b-cfb2-4a60-b531-309171f74bdd/ “Looking further ahead, if inflation follows the path I expect, further reductions in the federal funds rate will eventually be warranted to prevent monetary policy from inadvertently becoming more restrictive.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches rate path John Williams: Williams anticipates moving interest rates toward neutral stance over time if progress continue https://minutesof.com/q/a25d2526-b185-43c4-a939-325b3c8c3d10/ https://minutesof.com/q/a25d2526-b185-43c4-a939-325b3c8c3d10/ “Looking ahead, if progress on our dual mandate goals continues as in my baseline forecast, I anticipate it will become appropriate to move interest rates toward a more neutral stance over time.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches rate path Kevin Warsh: Warsh sets standard requiring confidence that underlying inflation is moving to objective at suff https://minutesof.com/q/01437dff-5d96-4bee-b799-12ae51314328/ https://minutesof.com/q/01437dff-5d96-4bee-b799-12ae51314328/ “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.” — Kevin Warsh, Financial Times Fri, 28 Aug 2026 17:44:56 +0000 rate path Kevin Warsh: Warsh sets standard that underlying inflation must move clearly and at sufficient speed to object https://minutesof.com/q/265aa8ae-0d94-417e-b267-8b320e428ecc/ https://minutesof.com/q/265aa8ae-0d94-417e-b267-8b320e428ecc/ “So here is my standard. We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed.” — Kevin Warsh, Financial Times Fri, 28 Aug 2026 17:44:56 +0000 rate path Kevin Warsh: Warsh says inflation is above 2% target and Fed's predominant focus should be on prices. https://minutesof.com/q/b80d41df-a379-465a-bb31-0e535cd77114/ https://minutesof.com/q/b80d41df-a379-465a-bb31-0e535cd77114/ “Inflation is running above our 2% target. So the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices.” — Kevin Warsh, Financial Times Fri, 28 Aug 2026 17:44:56 +0000 rate path Kevin Warsh: Warsh sets standard requiring clear evidence of inflation moving to target at sufficient speed. https://minutesof.com/q/af23a710-4778-43bf-8885-d1c8a0166674/ https://minutesof.com/q/af23a710-4778-43bf-8885-d1c8a0166674/ “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.” — Kevin Warsh, Varney & Co. Fri, 28 Aug 2026 17:04:37 +0000 rate path Kevin Warsh: Warsh sets the standard that the Fed must be confident inflation is moving to target at sufficien https://minutesof.com/q/4cb6ee05-df1f-4ee8-be6f-36c70e1b7409/ https://minutesof.com/q/4cb6ee05-df1f-4ee8-be6f-36c70e1b7409/ “So here is my standard. We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.” — Kevin Warsh, Reuters Business Fri, 28 Aug 2026 16:51:16 +0000 rate path Kevin Warsh: Warsh says Fed must be confident underlying inflation is moving to target at sufficient speed or https://minutesof.com/q/ec243323-0fc4-4223-aebf-80be6178e033/ https://minutesof.com/q/ec243323-0fc4-4223-aebf-80be6178e033/ “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.” — Kevin Warsh, Reuters Fri, 28 Aug 2026 16:51:10 +0000 rate path Kevin Warsh: Warsh sets timeline expectations, saying Fed cannot deliver in days or weeks but will fulfill con https://minutesof.com/q/a535b547-a808-4fe4-85b9-a8e48c879e2b/ https://minutesof.com/q/a535b547-a808-4fe4-85b9-a8e48c879e2b/ “We've got no magic wand. This isn't something that we're gonna be able to carry out in days or weeks, but we're gonna deliver on the responsibility that congress gave us.” — Kevin Warsh, Forbes Breaking News Wed, 29 Jul 2026 23:05:23 +0000 rate path Kevin Warsh: Warsh says Fed is in performance business, pointing to treasury curve and dollar as evidence. https://minutesof.com/q/c9a1e057-ccca-4520-888a-230369e1d404/ https://minutesof.com/q/c9a1e057-ccca-4520-888a-230369e1d404/ “And so so if I look at the treasury curve, if I look at the dollar, if I look at a lot of things that are internals inside of financial markets,” — Kevin Warsh, Forbes Breaking News Wed, 29 Jul 2026 23:05:23 +0000 rate path