https://minutesof.com/on/returns/ Everyone on the record about returns: 42 verbatim quotes from 5 people, December 2012 to June 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a link to… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:33:12 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/db0db0ac-f07f-4624-b6fd-32f96cce5c4c/ https://minutesof.com/q/db0db0ac-f07f-4624-b6fd-32f96cce5c4c/ “In this period we've been through of declining interest rates, financial engineering helped a lot, merely owning assets with leverage helped a lot, things regularly went to premium valuations.” — Howard Marks, Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/ce980c44-4ec9-49a7-8998-2e7e212a19d3/ https://minutesof.com/q/ce980c44-4ec9-49a7-8998-2e7e212a19d3/ “You apply the right financial structure, which also which often means leverage, you add value intrinsically to the operation, and you see it go to a premium valuation relative to what you pay.” — Howard Marks, Barron's Fri, 12 Jun 2026 17:53:42 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/21da301d-2643-41f2-aefa-4864005dfffd/ https://minutesof.com/q/21da301d-2643-41f2-aefa-4864005dfffd/ “I would say that as of a year or so, maybe two years ago, direct lending was, as you say, you use the term alpha, it was no longer special.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/68ecbd03-4a52-4aee-bc52-f45173c9d441/ https://minutesof.com/q/68ecbd03-4a52-4aee-bc52-f45173c9d441/ “I think you would have to say, optimism, not pessimism, credulousness, not skepticism, are in the ascendancy today, and when optimism and credulousness are in the ascendancy, it gets hard to make return investments that will produce what we call excess returns,” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/b2fbc471-b1c7-4c67-bc9d-f11a6ddf9416/ https://minutesof.com/q/b2fbc471-b1c7-4c67-bc9d-f11a6ddf9416/ “But if you look around the world, every place that private assets have been added to public portfolios, you've gotten better outcomes.” — Marc Rowan, Bloomberg Live Tue, 03 Mar 2026 17:46:05 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/4dc34633-e51e-4654-95ca-6745ea363015/ https://minutesof.com/q/4dc34633-e51e-4654-95ca-6745ea363015/ “The S and P 500 stock index has been around for about a century. There have been ninety seven or ninety eight three year periods by definition.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/fe864198-3445-4007-a68d-7a65e10e7d0b/ https://minutesof.com/q/fe864198-3445-4007-a68d-7a65e10e7d0b/ “What the relationship means is that an asset that appears to be risky has to appear to offer a high return or else nobody will buy it.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/6e047415-6c67-4fe8-9c68-c948c5d2db59/ https://minutesof.com/q/6e047415-6c67-4fe8-9c68-c948c5d2db59/ “And if you can survive long enough to enjoy the long term benefit of the lumpy 15, it beats the hell out of the smooth 12.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/e289166f-4e1c-4214-a363-e80a1f175b0d/ https://minutesof.com/q/e289166f-4e1c-4214-a363-e80a1f175b0d/ “And I would say to people, if you'd rather have a smooth 12 than a lumpy 15, you have to ask yourself what's going on.” — Howard Marks, Brookfield Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:35:50 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/54f688b6-7c78-4802-9381-297fb97302ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/54f688b6-7c78-4802-9381-297fb97302ed/ “The period, twenty three four five is for the S and P 500 is, I think, the seventh best three year period out of the last 100. Seventh out of a 100.” — Howard Marks, Brookfield Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:35:50 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/21686e0a-64aa-4473-94b3-afb1526d61e2/ https://minutesof.com/q/21686e0a-64aa-4473-94b3-afb1526d61e2/ “Historically, if you bought at this PE ratio, your return over the next ten years averaged in the very low single digits.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/d922ff49-9767-4c2b-b830-5b7ceca1dccb/ https://minutesof.com/q/d922ff49-9767-4c2b-b830-5b7ceca1dccb/ “Generally, what investors are doing is they're taking money out of equity or out of high yield bonds and moving into levered lending. It's roughly the same return, and it is less volatile.” — Marc Rowan, Yahoo Finance Wed, 10 Dec 2025 23:30:16 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/9030a5bb-a787-4fea-a498-d2349d4cb62e/ https://minutesof.com/q/9030a5bb-a787-4fea-a498-d2349d4cb62e/ “The stock's up over ten ten times. 10 x over that period of time as the revenue went from roughly $30,000,000,000 a year to over $200,000,000,000 a year.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Tue, 02 Dec 2025 14:15:59 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/cb2823c6-9e97-4367-aa5d-8fd037b43b7f/ https://minutesof.com/q/cb2823c6-9e97-4367-aa5d-8fd037b43b7f/ “Amazon is up 87 times today from where it was when he made that call.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 12 Jun 2025 17:50:39 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/9ad3b046-f346-4b29-bf9d-0d59be68614b/ https://minutesof.com/q/9ad3b046-f346-4b29-bf9d-0d59be68614b/ “If you make the argument that these people invested in venture to get a big return, then your cost of capital is not five.” — Bill Gurley, Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/e29dbda1-8142-4974-8ce0-af18c18eae60/ https://minutesof.com/q/e29dbda1-8142-4974-8ce0-af18c18eae60/ “If you just take that 10% compounding, it now needs to be worth a $160 in year fifteen.” — Bill Gurley, Invest Like the Best Tue, 10 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/a9edac1b-35b4-4e07-bb02-bdc3e28f19b0/ https://minutesof.com/q/a9edac1b-35b4-4e07-bb02-bdc3e28f19b0/ “Those people who are tied to asset prices who thought we were had a God given right that everything move up at 11% annually are disappointed.” — Marc Rowan, CNBC Television Wed, 09 Apr 2025 13:34:06 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/4bfaeb57-cf43-4ffb-b8ad-63cfb6e177cc/ https://minutesof.com/q/4bfaeb57-cf43-4ffb-b8ad-63cfb6e177cc/ “So I earned a 100 x return in the public markets. Right? By all accounts, venture capitalists would do back flips for that return, but those returns were going to private market participants.” — Brad Gerstner, Upfront Ventures Thu, 13 Mar 2025 21:33:08 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/3343a9c6-fb7e-44a0-8c79-7c3ca1fbe971/ https://minutesof.com/q/3343a9c6-fb7e-44a0-8c79-7c3ca1fbe971/ “I said to him, I want to say, congratulations, man, that's incredible. He goes, well, it's in a $4,000,000,000 fund. Wow. Wow. You know? Yeah. So, That's you have an incredible outcome.” — Bill Gurley, BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:46:51 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/c60b0343-1a39-4838-a695-4bb4ac8b8767/ https://minutesof.com/q/c60b0343-1a39-4838-a695-4bb4ac8b8767/ “The returns have been nothing short of spectacular. Outcomes for investors can be not a little better 5060% better.” — Marc Rowan, Bloomberg Television Wed, 02 Oct 2024 13:14:05 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/0e4d9100-3202-4724-8e74-9b49f4d300f4/ https://minutesof.com/q/0e4d9100-3202-4724-8e74-9b49f4d300f4/ “So that's just six quarters ago. Right after chat GPT hit the screens, you know, stocks are up 60%.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Fri, 09 Aug 2024 00:27:40 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/e752c284-194c-4f09-a750-3a358d5dd568/ https://minutesof.com/q/e752c284-194c-4f09-a750-3a358d5dd568/ “To me, the real accomplishment is making money with the risk under control. And that's what thinking about risk, I think, helps you do.” — Howard Marks, David Perell Wed, 21 Feb 2024 13:20:30 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/4a9c8673-8651-4fc6-baef-6cb729227567/ https://minutesof.com/q/4a9c8673-8651-4fc6-baef-6cb729227567/ “I think the return to target in our portfolio is 20 to 30%, whereas the start of last year, Bill, it was like 80%.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:07:19 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/a74511aa-45ed-4d87-b75a-72cc0d147eb7/ https://minutesof.com/q/a74511aa-45ed-4d87-b75a-72cc0d147eb7/ “On the rest of the portfolio where things were up rounds and things were going well and they put more money in, they made a lot of money.” — David Friedberg, How I Invest Podcast Tue, 09 Jan 2024 04:38:21 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/9366e036-c3cc-4c6a-b89c-a0b2c50b1690/ https://minutesof.com/q/9366e036-c3cc-4c6a-b89c-a0b2c50b1690/ “In the past ten years, if you bought the top 10 stocks on the NASDAQ, you would have made 10 x. Okay. It's a crazy statistic.” — David Friedberg, How I Invest Podcast Tue, 09 Jan 2024 04:38:21 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/c64e42a2-0010-433c-b19a-f37235c8b078/ https://minutesof.com/q/c64e42a2-0010-433c-b19a-f37235c8b078/ “Yeah, that was total enterprise value of Snowflake when we got involved, and we're still one of their largest shareholders today, and it's over $50,000,000,000 in enterprise value,” — Brad Gerstner, Elad Gil Thu, 09 Nov 2023 16:27:02 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/9e357b22-1065-4a78-a666-2e09a669c9e8/ https://minutesof.com/q/9e357b22-1065-4a78-a666-2e09a669c9e8/ “Today, you can get equity type returns from what we call credit instruments, loans, corporate corporate loans, loans for buyouts.” — Howard Marks, David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/1999384c-643e-44d4-bfb8-a478a7df965f/ https://minutesof.com/q/1999384c-643e-44d4-bfb8-a478a7df965f/ “But the vast majority of the returns are in these periods at the top of these bubbles.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/a3be239a-fd69-490c-8901-7f83d9680971/ https://minutesof.com/q/a3be239a-fd69-490c-8901-7f83d9680971/ “If you can earn single A corporate bond rates plus 300 for being less liquid for ninety or one hundred and eighty days, it seems like a pretty good trade.” — Marc Rowan, Barron's Thu, 11 May 2023 15:16:29 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/f4b8422e-b5ab-4f54-b76f-4f5b03caeb54/ https://minutesof.com/q/f4b8422e-b5ab-4f54-b76f-4f5b03caeb54/ “the IRR numbers and the ROI numbers on the venture capital category were heavily dependent on performance in the hottest part of the cycle” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/07f83cae-c84a-4ad1-81b4-6776d3832448/ https://minutesof.com/q/07f83cae-c84a-4ad1-81b4-6776d3832448/ “what I realized was that the IRR numbers and the ROI numbers on the venture capital category were heavily dependent on performance in the hottest part of the cycle and so in the tip of that sawtooth” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/8858e0b7-b1db-4124-82e5-3201c2af67cb/ https://minutesof.com/q/8858e0b7-b1db-4124-82e5-3201c2af67cb/ “Last year, we distributed over $6,000,000,000, which was more than all the venture we raised in our first five funds.” — Brad Gerstner, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/84bb656b-e418-45a8-9d23-904b21a7d8b5/ https://minutesof.com/q/84bb656b-e418-45a8-9d23-904b21a7d8b5/ “If you look at the now thirty two year history, 36% gross 26% net returns every fund has made carry.” — Marc Rowan, David Rubenstein Wed, 20 Apr 2022 11:09:09 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/f24d8bd1-cbaf-4458-baa7-a93261ae1216/ https://minutesof.com/q/f24d8bd1-cbaf-4458-baa7-a93261ae1216/ “44% gross on the $25,000,000,000 fund, high 20s net. The world just keeps moving. The world just keeps changing. It's our job to continue to reinvent ways to extract and to produce value.” — Marc Rowan, Bloomberg Live Thu, 15 Jul 2021 20:01:59 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/7da51125-f546-40e0-b562-7b1d59806ff8/ https://minutesof.com/q/7da51125-f546-40e0-b562-7b1d59806ff8/ “And in that fund, which was the 2,001 fund, 44% net returns. So, now you fast forward and you look at the last three funds we've done.” — Marc Rowan, Bloomberg Live Thu, 15 Jul 2021 20:01:59 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/207f8efd-7b4d-4ceb-b4bd-9b01ef3b541d/ https://minutesof.com/q/207f8efd-7b4d-4ceb-b4bd-9b01ef3b541d/ “This thing called hybrid, which is 30,000,000,000, is actually really interesting because it is neither yield nor opportunistic. It is never going to be the highest rate of return.” — Marc Rowan, Bloomberg Live Thu, 15 Jul 2021 15:56:20 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/f17dfb17-087e-40e1-8beb-042b1df54ee4/ https://minutesof.com/q/f17dfb17-087e-40e1-8beb-042b1df54ee4/ “And in that fund, which was the two thousand and one fund, 44% net returns. So now you fast forward and you look at the last three funds we've done.” — Marc Rowan, Bloomberg Live Thu, 15 Jul 2021 15:56:20 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/12521fe7-c99c-4174-b90e-043c6596236a/ https://minutesof.com/q/12521fe7-c99c-4174-b90e-043c6596236a/ “The the the most asymmetric bet maybe in the history of all of investing is having a golden ticket to have access to the best technology companies in the world today.” — Brad Gerstner, All-In Podcast Sat, 17 Apr 2021 02:12:13 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/2d758c7e-a625-4da6-bf6e-ccdd27c708d4/ https://minutesof.com/q/2d758c7e-a625-4da6-bf6e-ccdd27c708d4/ “And I was talking of I was worried about the future of search and the future of vertical search starting in 2010, But look at Google's compounded at about the rate the other big platforms have in The US.” — Brad Gerstner, Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/fdfccf6b-0c20-47c3-9a39-376d35f04df9/ https://minutesof.com/q/fdfccf6b-0c20-47c3-9a39-376d35f04df9/ “The exact flip way of saying that is, I'm excited about funding low return businesses and I'm gonna go do it.” — Bill Gurley, Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/4deb26f8-e394-4711-b277-35e2bbc8e185/ https://minutesof.com/q/4deb26f8-e394-4711-b277-35e2bbc8e185/ “And then they took the top performer out of those funds and they all fell out of the top 10 or maybe one of them stayed.” — Bill Gurley, GigaOm Fri, 14 Dec 2012 18:03:42 +0000 returns https://minutesof.com/q/5bb74cef-13b5-4330-9ef6-8b858e3eeb32/ https://minutesof.com/q/5bb74cef-13b5-4330-9ef6-8b858e3eeb32/ “And then they took the top performer out of those funds and they all fell out of the top 10 or maybe one of them stayed.” — Bill Gurley, GigaOm Tue, 11 Dec 2012 17:56:41 +0000 returns