https://minutesof.com/on/risk/ Everyone on the record about risk: 169 verbatim quotes from 9 people, March 2015 to August 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a link to… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:33:12 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/3700bf5e-1e38-4fd8-a7cc-6c7840474bfd/ https://minutesof.com/q/3700bf5e-1e38-4fd8-a7cc-6c7840474bfd/ “This implies that banks would have to see large increases in overnight rates to be willing to shed modest amounts of reserves—or, conversely, that a modest decline in reserves could induce a substantial increase in overnight rates.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches risk https://minutesof.com/q/b66f155d-c49c-4b33-86f4-72831629b0a8/ https://minutesof.com/q/b66f155d-c49c-4b33-86f4-72831629b0a8/ “I think one reason to the podcast two months ago, I got comfortable with that risk was just that you were seeing such incredible things out of anthropic.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/57620673-e793-4b0d-819a-af788755f600/ https://minutesof.com/q/57620673-e793-4b0d-819a-af788755f600/ “Valuations represent discounted future expectations. So the higher the valuation you take, the more is expected of you and the slight misstep and you could be way underneath.” — Bill Gurley, Forbes Mon, 13 Jul 2026 11:00:14 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/f7291038-b263-4b1a-ac70-0f73234e8f92/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7291038-b263-4b1a-ac70-0f73234e8f92/ “To make money in a salutary investment environment, you can do it on the basis of good judgment and hard work and skill, or you can do it on aggressiveness and getting lucky.” — Howard Marks, Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/d490221d-39ea-4fa6-b509-074f7a6ce4d3/ https://minutesof.com/q/d490221d-39ea-4fa6-b509-074f7a6ce4d3/ “I'm told that of the 700, roughly 3% were in business before the global financial crisis. So we don't know how many of them are have what it takes to deal with a harsh environment.” — Howard Marks, Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/ca6ec235-bb1d-4c90-884a-fc89177c6191/ https://minutesof.com/q/ca6ec235-bb1d-4c90-884a-fc89177c6191/ “the venture capital community as a whole is is getting more risk seeking and taking on more risk because of their knowledge of how things have played out in the past.” — Bill Gurley, The Knowledge Project Podcast Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:00:30 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/5b6ca29b-f7be-4e69-b717-8c27d99731c7/ https://minutesof.com/q/5b6ca29b-f7be-4e69-b717-8c27d99731c7/ “The scariest thing in the world, the riskiest thing in the world is the belief there's no risk.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/5b6ca29b-f7be-4e69-b717-8c27d99731c7/ https://minutesof.com/q/5b6ca29b-f7be-4e69-b717-8c27d99731c7/ “The scariest thing in the world, the riskiest thing in the world is the belief there's no risk.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/573d3ddd-c59e-44b9-add5-9636c92e96c0/ https://minutesof.com/q/573d3ddd-c59e-44b9-add5-9636c92e96c0/ “I'm concerned that there could be nuclear war, and I'm concerned that there could be inflation at 20%. Mhmm. Well, can protect yourself against that.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Tue, 26 May 2026 23:26:41 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/9a8caf62-46c4-44ea-a4a0-1f5fe7163727/ https://minutesof.com/q/9a8caf62-46c4-44ea-a4a0-1f5fe7163727/ “And you heard the rumors and seen the headlines that 30 or 40% of compute now is delayed this year. So keep your eye on power and compute.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Fri, 15 May 2026 20:31:59 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/3f63fbc7-d33d-402e-86ce-eb0e9aacf9b5/ https://minutesof.com/q/3f63fbc7-d33d-402e-86ce-eb0e9aacf9b5/ “And there was a guy named Wally Deemer, was an old time trader, who had some great quotes and he turned them into” — Howard Marks, Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/02f177de-1f74-4320-b66c-82974016c635/ https://minutesof.com/q/02f177de-1f74-4320-b66c-82974016c635/ “over the last forty years, on average, something like 3.6 or 3.7% of all high yield bonds have gone into default every year, and our default rate has been roughly a third.” — Howard Marks, Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/0d969e05-e88f-47f3-a8da-dcac55b2f3f0/ https://minutesof.com/q/0d969e05-e88f-47f3-a8da-dcac55b2f3f0/ “You would have a hard time convincing me that risk capital is in shortage in America right now. I'm seeing the most risk seeking venture capital behavior I've ever seen in my entire life.” — Bill Gurley, Tom Bilyeu Thu, 23 Apr 2026 13:01:05 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/6f992cc7-ee31-4650-997f-8bec180824a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/6f992cc7-ee31-4650-997f-8bec180824a3/ “it's not what you buy, it's what you pay that counts. Good investing doesn't come from buying good things, it comes from buying things well.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:17:40 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/beec94d0-b941-4188-b150-37444ff4b03b/ https://minutesof.com/q/beec94d0-b941-4188-b150-37444ff4b03b/ “Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan says a lot of things best. He said, you know, when you see one cockroach, there are probably more. So, people started to say, well, maybe there's something wrong here.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:17:40 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/7a5c456a-5c5e-4839-875f-cd1fc7e7c69c/ https://minutesof.com/q/7a5c456a-5c5e-4839-875f-cd1fc7e7c69c/ “The the biggest I thought I've spent a lot of time thinking about the biggest mistake that investors make. It is the belief that something can go up more than something else forever.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/1f7d4144-3e24-4d24-a1ad-f7ca508e5b61/ https://minutesof.com/q/1f7d4144-3e24-4d24-a1ad-f7ca508e5b61/ “And and the government, in theory, can make up the paycheck, but they can't make up the sense of purpose and the reason to get out of bed and the structure for your day.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/61f16caf-4a11-4520-a2cf-592d3ae4c24e/ https://minutesof.com/q/61f16caf-4a11-4520-a2cf-592d3ae4c24e/ “I think it should be valued at what an intelligent, unemotional buyer would pay for it today.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/46d27ebc-2050-4731-ada9-d4f7636a0269/ https://minutesof.com/q/46d27ebc-2050-4731-ada9-d4f7636a0269/ “There's nothing wrong with lending money to companies. The question is, do you do it wisely?” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/a29ae6a2-fd8c-46f0-8302-5baae4692c36/ https://minutesof.com/q/a29ae6a2-fd8c-46f0-8302-5baae4692c36/ “And from March of o nine until, let's say, January '26, there generally were not profound low points. And when good times roll on that long, people forget about the possibility of bad times.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/1b4bc5f8-2789-406e-a84f-da3b5c75e5c2/ https://minutesof.com/q/1b4bc5f8-2789-406e-a84f-da3b5c75e5c2/ “We want to get returns that are more than commensurate with risk. And to do that, you have to buy assets not at fair prices, but are unfair prices.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/5b4113c2-c120-4fd3-b3f4-6387d3b071ad/ https://minutesof.com/q/5b4113c2-c120-4fd3-b3f4-6387d3b071ad/ “So if you bought the stocks the day I got there, I think it was 09/22/1969, if I'm not mistaken, and if you held them tenaciously for five years, the greatest company is America, you lost about 95% of your money.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/7d35714b-4b54-432f-af75-8f9f520b0e16/ https://minutesof.com/q/7d35714b-4b54-432f-af75-8f9f520b0e16/ “These were the 50 best and fastest growing companies in America, where nothing could go wrong and there was no price too high.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/68ecbd03-4a52-4aee-bc52-f45173c9d441/ https://minutesof.com/q/68ecbd03-4a52-4aee-bc52-f45173c9d441/ “I think you would have to say, optimism, not pessimism, credulousness, not skepticism, are in the ascendancy today, and when optimism and credulousness are in the ascendancy, it gets hard to make return investments that will produce what we call excess returns,” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/bb39dc1f-9a0a-4eb8-9099-a3eb2a83cea1/ https://minutesof.com/q/bb39dc1f-9a0a-4eb8-9099-a3eb2a83cea1/ “if the yield spreads are at the low end of normal range, you would have to say that the fear of elevated defaults is not present and compensation for an elevated default rate is not available.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/18effe83-7b96-418d-8bdb-31a5eeb58aca/ https://minutesof.com/q/18effe83-7b96-418d-8bdb-31a5eeb58aca/ “I mean, company values haven't doubled, intrinsic values, but prices have doubled, so it's been a great time, and great times encourage the desire to put money to work and discourage analysis,” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/cb1e3b8c-b2fe-4c84-8896-aee74e2c55d9/ https://minutesof.com/q/cb1e3b8c-b2fe-4c84-8896-aee74e2c55d9/ “one of the long standing sayings in the banking business is that the worst of loans are made in the best of times, and it's for this reason.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/35ef7d2a-6017-4720-af28-bdffe9c01afb/ https://minutesof.com/q/35ef7d2a-6017-4720-af28-bdffe9c01afb/ “the changes that are underway today, and in particular the introduction of AI, render the world much less predictable than at any time, probably any time ever, and certainly any time in my lifetime.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/eb100222-a82f-46c9-ac2b-18f80d5dc74c/ https://minutesof.com/q/eb100222-a82f-46c9-ac2b-18f80d5dc74c/ “We're at the we're in the first inning of a very long unpredictable game. We don't know what the rules are or or have any idea how many innings there are” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/11062a4c-cd6d-4469-ba9c-a0712af200bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/11062a4c-cd6d-4469-ba9c-a0712af200bc/ “I think it was Walter Cronkite who said if you're not confused, you don't know what's going on. I would say if you think you know what's gonna happen,” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/90dcd68e-dc0f-4973-aebd-6bdcf011bb17/ https://minutesof.com/q/90dcd68e-dc0f-4973-aebd-6bdcf011bb17/ “one of my concerns is that AI moves faster than the ability of society to adjust to it. And that and that is a formula for disruption.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/609cf1a4-66d6-4739-a241-c97d66449e80/ https://minutesof.com/q/609cf1a4-66d6-4739-a241-c97d66449e80/ “The winners are so big at that level, you could have 80% of your portfolio fail. So it's a game that's a lot riskier, and you're searching for the really big outcomes.” — Bill Gurley, BigDeal by Codie Sanchez Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/fe864198-3445-4007-a68d-7a65e10e7d0b/ https://minutesof.com/q/fe864198-3445-4007-a68d-7a65e10e7d0b/ “What the relationship means is that an asset that appears to be risky has to appear to offer a high return or else nobody will buy it.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/0c450801-47cb-4b14-8135-91dd3524a5a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c450801-47cb-4b14-8135-91dd3524a5a3/ “If a risky asset can be counted on to have a high return, then it's not risky. So it can't be true. It's incorrect on its face.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/6e047415-6c67-4fe8-9c68-c948c5d2db59/ https://minutesof.com/q/6e047415-6c67-4fe8-9c68-c948c5d2db59/ “And if you can survive long enough to enjoy the long term benefit of the lumpy 15, it beats the hell out of the smooth 12.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e1076922-0e8c-41c6-9c98-b4019d166124/ https://minutesof.com/q/e1076922-0e8c-41c6-9c98-b4019d166124/ “Risk, in my opinion, and my view has evolved, risk is the probability negative outcome, of an undesirable outcome. It is not the volatility of the stream.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e1076922-0e8c-41c6-9c98-b4019d166124/ https://minutesof.com/q/e1076922-0e8c-41c6-9c98-b4019d166124/ “Risk, in my opinion, and my view has evolved, risk is the probability negative outcome, of an undesirable outcome. It is not the volatility of the stream.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/427e10dc-a1fc-4740-8469-fb8202f73a6d/ https://minutesof.com/q/427e10dc-a1fc-4740-8469-fb8202f73a6d/ “Risk, in my opinion, and my view has evolved, risk is the probability negative outcome, of an undesirable outcome.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/427e10dc-a1fc-4740-8469-fb8202f73a6d/ https://minutesof.com/q/427e10dc-a1fc-4740-8469-fb8202f73a6d/ “Risk, in my opinion, and my view has evolved, risk is the probability negative outcome, of an undesirable outcome.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/8dc27259-e6f9-4a81-aa93-44d0b2d23ec1/ https://minutesof.com/q/8dc27259-e6f9-4a81-aa93-44d0b2d23ec1/ “it's not what you buy, it's what you pay. And good investing is not just a function of buying good things, but of buying things well.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/b7d6e3a2-4375-4b25-99eb-b181055d64bb/ https://minutesof.com/q/b7d6e3a2-4375-4b25-99eb-b181055d64bb/ “And given the, if you think about it, from 1980 when the inflation was solved, essentially to date, generally speaking, the more optimistic you were, the more money you made.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/397ea8d6-7232-401b-b0fa-bc2aa1e3b97d/ https://minutesof.com/q/397ea8d6-7232-401b-b0fa-bc2aa1e3b97d/ “And so that was very informative and it's very desirable to learn your lessons early and also preferable to learn your lessons when there's not a lot of money at stake, which I did.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e289166f-4e1c-4214-a363-e80a1f175b0d/ https://minutesof.com/q/e289166f-4e1c-4214-a363-e80a1f175b0d/ “And I would say to people, if you'd rather have a smooth 12 than a lumpy 15, you have to ask yourself what's going on.” — Howard Marks, Brookfield Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:35:50 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/4979756b-0666-4cfe-b53e-646e0b633f1a/ https://minutesof.com/q/4979756b-0666-4cfe-b53e-646e0b633f1a/ “Exposing yourself to the risk of loss is integral in trying to have a good investment return. So, you know, even though our investment philosophy, stresses, risk control, we're not talking about risk avoidance.” — Howard Marks, Brookfield Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:35:50 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/4979756b-0666-4cfe-b53e-646e0b633f1a/ https://minutesof.com/q/4979756b-0666-4cfe-b53e-646e0b633f1a/ “Exposing yourself to the risk of loss is integral in trying to have a good investment return. So, you know, even though our investment philosophy, stresses, risk control, we're not talking about risk avoidance.” — Howard Marks, Brookfield Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:35:50 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/a173af01-d767-436e-a5b6-4c9049bb184f/ https://minutesof.com/q/a173af01-d767-436e-a5b6-4c9049bb184f/ “Most people care a little about a dollar made and a lost. Exposing yourself to the risk of loss is integral in trying to have a good investment return.” — Howard Marks, Brookfield Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:35:50 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/a173af01-d767-436e-a5b6-4c9049bb184f/ https://minutesof.com/q/a173af01-d767-436e-a5b6-4c9049bb184f/ “Most people care a little about a dollar made and a lost. Exposing yourself to the risk of loss is integral in trying to have a good investment return.” — Howard Marks, Brookfield Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:35:50 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/05a1d0f2-89c4-4ba5-a2f6-9c16c37371ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/05a1d0f2-89c4-4ba5-a2f6-9c16c37371ae/ “It's a probability distribution. It's a range of possibilities in each thing, whether it's GDP growth next year or inflation next year, or who's going to win the next election,” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/ef1891a8-885c-4b64-ac23-be7decfb8638/ https://minutesof.com/q/ef1891a8-885c-4b64-ac23-be7decfb8638/ “The future is not a set single thing that if you're smart enough, you can figure it out what it's going to be and it's going to materialize and make you right.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/05f6eec2-bccf-4a48-b537-bdf45a848d01/ https://minutesof.com/q/05f6eec2-bccf-4a48-b537-bdf45a848d01/ “Or do you want to invest in a great tech company, which is already existing and making a lot of money where AI could be incremental, but not life changing?” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/245af8cf-6d4d-4672-be3e-7016560da06d/ https://minutesof.com/q/245af8cf-6d4d-4672-be3e-7016560da06d/ “What if private is safe and risky, and public is safe and risky, and we're talking about differing degrees of liquidity in different markets? I think that's what we're seeing.” — Marc Rowan, Marsh Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:54:43 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/ce45dcc4-d0f6-445a-bb4c-0eae566d86c4/ https://minutesof.com/q/ce45dcc4-d0f6-445a-bb4c-0eae566d86c4/ “The disconnect in people's minds of private and investment grade is actually funny to watch sometimes, because we've grown up with forty years of thinking that private is risky and public is safe.” — Marc Rowan, Marsh Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:54:43 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/1a5542d5-f450-4c82-8749-b192e18c43f6/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a5542d5-f450-4c82-8749-b192e18c43f6/ “If you fund something that doesn't work, you lose one times your money. If you miss this big thing, you lose, you know, 10,000 extra money.” — Bill Gurley, Yahoo Finance Mon, 26 Jan 2026 13:00:06 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/63e54117-d623-41d3-87b1-ddc8abba6c2a/ https://minutesof.com/q/63e54117-d623-41d3-87b1-ddc8abba6c2a/ “We don't think anything of Nvidia or the S and P going up or down 10 or 15%, and yet one private credit loan or one broadly syndicated loan defaults and people lose their mind.” — Marc Rowan, Yahoo Finance Sun, 21 Dec 2025 16:00:06 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/4477d528-5825-4fe1-a8ce-d7e7b169e57c/ https://minutesof.com/q/4477d528-5825-4fe1-a8ce-d7e7b169e57c/ “And when we started Oaktree in 1995, I wrote that down, and that became our motto and still is.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/ea1f50ad-df8f-4b68-8a14-b8f468139d5b/ https://minutesof.com/q/ea1f50ad-df8f-4b68-8a14-b8f468139d5b/ “in equities, if you can avoid the losers and losing years, the winners will take care of themselves.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/fea50f6d-d561-4501-8e33-77cd725d2f81/ https://minutesof.com/q/fea50f6d-d561-4501-8e33-77cd725d2f81/ “most investors, shoot for the stars and occasionally shoot themselves in the foot and wreck their record. And once you have a big loss, it takes a long time to get back to scratch.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/5c2356ed-97c5-4d19-97e2-1320523450df/ https://minutesof.com/q/5c2356ed-97c5-4d19-97e2-1320523450df/ “And the answer turns out to be that most investors, shoot for the stars and occasionally shoot themselves in the foot and wreck their record.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e287effc-d7fc-41e0-8067-5fa0ca1d9d07/ https://minutesof.com/q/e287effc-d7fc-41e0-8067-5fa0ca1d9d07/ “So solidly in the second quarter for fourteen years in a row. But interestingly, as a result, for the fourteen years overall, they were in the fourth percentile.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 13 Dec 2025 22:45:06 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/21686e0a-64aa-4473-94b3-afb1526d61e2/ https://minutesof.com/q/21686e0a-64aa-4473-94b3-afb1526d61e2/ “Historically, if you bought at this PE ratio, your return over the next ten years averaged in the very low single digits.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e0d5eb77-7408-42e2-bfb4-1dfa461b1e6d/ https://minutesof.com/q/e0d5eb77-7408-42e2-bfb4-1dfa461b1e6d/ “And if Fed puts money artificially cheap, then it induces behavior like risk taking. It forces people into riskier activities because the returns on safe activities are so low.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e0d5eb77-7408-42e2-bfb4-1dfa461b1e6d/ https://minutesof.com/q/e0d5eb77-7408-42e2-bfb4-1dfa461b1e6d/ “And if Fed puts money artificially cheap, then it induces behavior like risk taking. It forces people into riskier activities because the returns on safe activities are so low.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/a3fcdc62-7fcb-41b8-8562-3e86fa218662/ https://minutesof.com/q/a3fcdc62-7fcb-41b8-8562-3e86fa218662/ “And the Fed manipulations are a form of price controls. You know, they control the price of money.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/549d9dfd-77f6-4067-a4dd-5494f8c0cd86/ https://minutesof.com/q/549d9dfd-77f6-4067-a4dd-5494f8c0cd86/ “And the Fed manipulations are a form of price controls. You know, they control the price of money. And if Fed puts money artificially cheap, then it induces behavior like risk taking.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/549d9dfd-77f6-4067-a4dd-5494f8c0cd86/ https://minutesof.com/q/549d9dfd-77f6-4067-a4dd-5494f8c0cd86/ “And the Fed manipulations are a form of price controls. You know, they control the price of money. And if Fed puts money artificially cheap, then it induces behavior like risk taking.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/ee65997d-6da4-4214-80df-e672fed3c154/ https://minutesof.com/q/ee65997d-6da4-4214-80df-e672fed3c154/ “Buffett says, the less prudence with which others conduct our affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own affairs.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/8dc958af-89ab-41e9-b69e-9335477c6aac/ https://minutesof.com/q/8dc958af-89ab-41e9-b69e-9335477c6aac/ “You certainly shouldn't do that in in in activities that have a high probability of not paying off at all because then you have unlimited downside and limited upside.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 11 Dec 2025 14:50:59 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/42ef63ef-e368-434a-bb3f-02700bb94588/ https://minutesof.com/q/42ef63ef-e368-434a-bb3f-02700bb94588/ “But I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that because you own a data center and you own equity in it and data is valuable that you will make money in data center equity.” — Marc Rowan, Yahoo Finance Wed, 10 Dec 2025 23:30:16 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/fecce4bc-8364-47c1-a56f-e753de61de9a/ https://minutesof.com/q/fecce4bc-8364-47c1-a56f-e753de61de9a/ “We don't think anything of Nvidia or the S and P going up or down 10 or 15%, and yet one private credit loan or one broadly syndicated loan defaults and people lose their mind.” — Marc Rowan, Yahoo Finance Wed, 10 Dec 2025 23:30:16 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/cd04bf33-77bd-450c-8ff0-789eaf28c649/ https://minutesof.com/q/cd04bf33-77bd-450c-8ff0-789eaf28c649/ “If the price of DRAM, if like a DRAM wafer is valued at like a five carat diamond.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/d7215c0b-bbe4-4d4f-abf8-8d4abfb834e5/ https://minutesof.com/q/d7215c0b-bbe4-4d4f-abf8-8d4abfb834e5/ “To me, the main ingredient in bubbles is psychological excess. There's no such thing as a price too high.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 13 Oct 2025 16:15:11 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/21d21c3d-dce5-4f93-9c0e-b9564cbb941a/ https://minutesof.com/q/21d21c3d-dce5-4f93-9c0e-b9564cbb941a/ “I left all my stock options on the table, all my RSUs I'd been given. It was worth a couple million dollars, and I was 25 years old back in 2005.” — David Friedberg, Venture Europe Thu, 09 Oct 2025 12:21:31 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/43bca0f7-bb8f-4e77-8816-f0ed9665b52a/ https://minutesof.com/q/43bca0f7-bb8f-4e77-8816-f0ed9665b52a/ “No. No. No. Like, NVIDIA ordered the volume for the Xbox before Microsoft gave them the order.” — Dylan Patel, a16z Mon, 22 Sep 2025 13:01:51 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/5469de78-5434-4fb2-98b6-60d31df726ef/ https://minutesof.com/q/5469de78-5434-4fb2-98b6-60d31df726ef/ “something like probably 99% of all startups fail, probably something like 90% of all the investments that venture capital funds make fail.” — Howard Marks, The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/a21cd660-eb55-46af-812d-d011cc9d2846/ https://minutesof.com/q/a21cd660-eb55-46af-812d-d011cc9d2846/ “assets that are expected to be riskier have to appear to offer a higher return or nobody will make those investments. That makes a 100% sense, doesn't it? So that's what this relationship means” — Howard Marks, The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/5f23c478-b99d-4ef2-ab12-006b086487d7/ https://minutesof.com/q/5f23c478-b99d-4ef2-ab12-006b086487d7/ “assets that are expected to be riskier have to appear to offer a higher return or nobody will make those investments. That makes a 100% sense, doesn't it?” — Howard Marks, The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/84637199-7dbb-43ac-8d12-59d894ea94e3/ https://minutesof.com/q/84637199-7dbb-43ac-8d12-59d894ea94e3/ “if it were true that taking more risk is the surefire path to a higher return, then it wouldn't be risky. Can't be right. So I was always unsatisfied with that.” — Howard Marks, The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/84637199-7dbb-43ac-8d12-59d894ea94e3/ https://minutesof.com/q/84637199-7dbb-43ac-8d12-59d894ea94e3/ “if it were true that taking more risk is the surefire path to a higher return, then it wouldn't be risky. Can't be right. So I was always unsatisfied with that.” — Howard Marks, The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/9ee4a2e1-106d-4084-9fee-b34f7a79bf9c/ https://minutesof.com/q/9ee4a2e1-106d-4084-9fee-b34f7a79bf9c/ “if riskier investments could be counted on to produce higher returns, then by definition, they're not risky. So that can't be right.” — Howard Marks, The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/6651d07a-729f-413a-8676-3c9a00e9851a/ https://minutesof.com/q/6651d07a-729f-413a-8676-3c9a00e9851a/ “One of the biggest mistakes you can make in life, but especially in investing, is to assume that you're smart and everybody else is dumb.” — Howard Marks, The Church Sag Harbor Sun, 07 Sep 2025 18:45:03 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/600fc1a2-737c-4c69-b1fe-84b75fdc3a9c/ https://minutesof.com/q/600fc1a2-737c-4c69-b1fe-84b75fdc3a9c/ “But if I don't invest it and the world doesn't melt down, then we didn't do our job. QED, you have to move forward.” — Howard Marks, My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/fa2e919c-c7b3-45ca-a51d-1c4242abf2ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/fa2e919c-c7b3-45ca-a51d-1c4242abf2ed/ “But we would like to have the remainder of your interest in a standby fund that will implement if the stuff hits the fan.” — Howard Marks, My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/ff7424d8-1a19-4321-b1c0-f2bfcbb5edd1/ https://minutesof.com/q/ff7424d8-1a19-4321-b1c0-f2bfcbb5edd1/ “The only thing I'm sure of is if you zig when they zig, you're not gonna outperform.” — Howard Marks, My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/514dfc4a-c96f-43fe-9093-1cc71ada73ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/514dfc4a-c96f-43fe-9093-1cc71ada73ed/ “And it showed that historically, you bought the S and P when the PE ratio was 23, in every case, there were no exceptions.” — Howard Marks, My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/176be48a-c6cd-42a2-af84-70d1e689481d/ https://minutesof.com/q/176be48a-c6cd-42a2-af84-70d1e689481d/ “That's not a gamble I would have taken from the position we had. Having said that, short term uncertainty, that's the risk. Longer term brand, that's the risk,” — Marc Rowan, CNBC Television Wed, 09 Apr 2025 13:27:57 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/d9bf9ba2-64ad-4f01-9591-d18ae4bb686b/ https://minutesof.com/q/d9bf9ba2-64ad-4f01-9591-d18ae4bb686b/ “I I I think this does pose a risk fundamentally to the Uber business model.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 03 Apr 2025 18:08:17 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/2fa1a55a-6d2f-4f09-b7ed-0addc1932d35/ https://minutesof.com/q/2fa1a55a-6d2f-4f09-b7ed-0addc1932d35/ “What do I do as an investor? You know, what did I do in the fall of twenty two that led me into NVIDIA in the first place?” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Wed, 05 Feb 2025 23:13:28 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/4213e51c-a8b5-4a95-b80f-c7212a015b02/ https://minutesof.com/q/4213e51c-a8b5-4a95-b80f-c7212a015b02/ “I think the right model for thinking about whether we need risk control isn't American football, it's soccer. In American football, the team with the ball has the offense on the field.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/4213e51c-a8b5-4a95-b80f-c7212a015b02/ https://minutesof.com/q/4213e51c-a8b5-4a95-b80f-c7212a015b02/ “I think the right model for thinking about whether we need risk control isn't American football, it's soccer. In American football, the team with the ball has the offense on the field.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/489e3398-d64d-4c35-967c-04dab6427163/ https://minutesof.com/q/489e3398-d64d-4c35-967c-04dab6427163/ “I believe imprecise qualitative expert opinion about the probability of loss is far more useful than precise but largely irrelevant numbers concerning past and projected volatility.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e7ad3825-8b33-4a35-aab2-c51ae95a5ff4/ https://minutesof.com/q/e7ad3825-8b33-4a35-aab2-c51ae95a5ff4/ “What the upward sloping line, the positive correlation, means is that investments that are perceived as being risky have to be perceived as offering higher returns to induce people to make those investments.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/d40ac94d-a8ef-4464-b657-dbcda625afe2/ https://minutesof.com/q/d40ac94d-a8ef-4464-b657-dbcda625afe2/ “Very simply, if it were true that riskier assets produce higher returns, then they wouldn't be riskier, would they? So that can't be the right explanation.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/754fd957-0ee5-4297-a1b8-1a38da695b04/ https://minutesof.com/q/754fd957-0ee5-4297-a1b8-1a38da695b04/ “There are no assets that are so good that they can't become overpriced and dangerous. There are very few assets that are so bad that they can't be cheap enough to be attractive as investments.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/ebcba1d0-4b49-4a5b-9f9f-7380c9e7d67c/ https://minutesof.com/q/ebcba1d0-4b49-4a5b-9f9f-7380c9e7d67c/ “My conclusion was it's not what you buy, it's what you pay. And investment success doesn't come from buying good things, but from buying things well.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/43cc7d46-df91-40df-9627-bc7fbc4f381c/ https://minutesof.com/q/43cc7d46-df91-40df-9627-bc7fbc4f381c/ “One of the most important things for every investor to learn is that risk is not a function of asset quality. This too sounds counterintuitive.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/43cc7d46-df91-40df-9627-bc7fbc4f381c/ https://minutesof.com/q/43cc7d46-df91-40df-9627-bc7fbc4f381c/ “One of the most important things for every investor to learn is that risk is not a function of asset quality. This too sounds counterintuitive.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/20951606-e2c1-4f22-862d-030410142379/ https://minutesof.com/q/20951606-e2c1-4f22-862d-030410142379/ “My friend Rick Kane once said that 96% of financial history has occurred within two standard deviations, but everything interesting has happened outside of two standard deviations.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e0547f6c-0d6d-4908-a974-b5f8f95d6f86/ https://minutesof.com/q/e0547f6c-0d6d-4908-a974-b5f8f95d6f86/ “The fact that you experienced a downward fluctuation might have been uncomfortable for a little while. But by the time the new high is achieved, you're you're you're back to to your cost and more.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/db26f4f5-9fbf-46f2-99a3-0dd13ef42476/ https://minutesof.com/q/db26f4f5-9fbf-46f2-99a3-0dd13ef42476/ “So if risk is not volatility, then what is it? And in my opinion, and in the real world sense, risk is the probability of loss.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/db26f4f5-9fbf-46f2-99a3-0dd13ef42476/ https://minutesof.com/q/db26f4f5-9fbf-46f2-99a3-0dd13ef42476/ “So if risk is not volatility, then what is it? And in my opinion, and in the real world sense, risk is the probability of loss.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/94809c35-c2ca-414f-b0c1-8716a8563a7d/ https://minutesof.com/q/94809c35-c2ca-414f-b0c1-8716a8563a7d/ “I think that volatility can be an indicator of the presence of risk, a symptom if you will, but it's not risk itself.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/94809c35-c2ca-414f-b0c1-8716a8563a7d/ https://minutesof.com/q/94809c35-c2ca-414f-b0c1-8716a8563a7d/ “I think that volatility can be an indicator of the presence of risk, a symptom if you will, but it's not risk itself.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/ee5cc03b-2444-4a73-a5db-36ccc65c9614/ https://minutesof.com/q/ee5cc03b-2444-4a73-a5db-36ccc65c9614/ “The academics developing investment theory, largely at the University of Chicago in the early sixties, just a couple years before I got there, adopted volatility as their measure of risk.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/ee5cc03b-2444-4a73-a5db-36ccc65c9614/ https://minutesof.com/q/ee5cc03b-2444-4a73-a5db-36ccc65c9614/ “The academics developing investment theory, largely at the University of Chicago in the early sixties, just a couple years before I got there, adopted volatility as their measure of risk.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:00:36 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/3f5e9eaf-2c7f-48f8-b0bc-58f4e721ceb3/ https://minutesof.com/q/3f5e9eaf-2c7f-48f8-b0bc-58f4e721ceb3/ “And the backdrop is that the economy is slowing, earnings are coming in lighter than people expected, and AI is creating more disruption, creating more uncertainty than we expected.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 16 May 2024 19:31:21 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e426efef-5030-48ef-b82c-14d92efec157/ https://minutesof.com/q/e426efef-5030-48ef-b82c-14d92efec157/ “And so people adopt incremental risk with the whole boiled frog metaphor without kinda realizing they're doing it.” — Bill Gurley, Qualia Wed, 01 May 2024 17:09:06 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e752c284-194c-4f09-a750-3a358d5dd568/ https://minutesof.com/q/e752c284-194c-4f09-a750-3a358d5dd568/ “To me, the real accomplishment is making money with the risk under control. And that's what thinking about risk, I think, helps you do.” — Howard Marks, David Perell Wed, 21 Feb 2024 13:20:30 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e752c284-194c-4f09-a750-3a358d5dd568/ https://minutesof.com/q/e752c284-194c-4f09-a750-3a358d5dd568/ “To me, the real accomplishment is making money with the risk under control. And that's what thinking about risk, I think, helps you do.” — Howard Marks, David Perell Wed, 21 Feb 2024 13:20:30 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/7a85bcb9-79e8-4503-a876-aa0c40c8274c/ https://minutesof.com/q/7a85bcb9-79e8-4503-a876-aa0c40c8274c/ “So I'm not putting myself at risk, because some people are gonna say, well, that's what he says. I'm not into that.” — Howard Marks, David Perell Wed, 21 Feb 2024 13:20:30 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/f052c458-d1bf-4e3e-9bb1-e5e29618b4c8/ https://minutesof.com/q/f052c458-d1bf-4e3e-9bb1-e5e29618b4c8/ “And we had to get multiple things right in a row over time to see if this thing even worked. And fortunately it works, but it took us four and a half years.” — David Friedberg, How I Invest Podcast Tue, 09 Jan 2024 04:38:21 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/008ca4bf-ed51-4af4-83f6-458db470a9ff/ https://minutesof.com/q/008ca4bf-ed51-4af4-83f6-458db470a9ff/ “And, you know, complexity breeds fear because it breeds a higher chance of failure. You know, you have to get each of these things right for something to work.” — David Friedberg, How I Invest Podcast Tue, 09 Jan 2024 04:38:21 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/5cc51ac7-87aa-46b8-a2ec-300155f8ea29/ https://minutesof.com/q/5cc51ac7-87aa-46b8-a2ec-300155f8ea29/ “Well, there's I don't know about, using the term thinker, but I think that the, the big concepts are scary because there's so many things that have to go right to get them to work.” — David Friedberg, How I Invest Podcast Tue, 09 Jan 2024 04:38:21 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/f2f4d520-7ae0-42a3-a9f8-8bf341e8e757/ https://minutesof.com/q/f2f4d520-7ae0-42a3-a9f8-8bf341e8e757/ “it's not just whether the event was positive, it's how people reacted to the event that determines the impact on the security prices.” — Howard Marks, David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/7b044501-97ab-4b54-abb7-7ea9eba2dac8/ https://minutesof.com/q/7b044501-97ab-4b54-abb7-7ea9eba2dac8/ “The great investors are right 60%, 70%, maybe 80% of the time. If you're the kind of person who has to be right all the time, you shouldn't be in in investing.” — Howard Marks, David Rubenstein Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:46:10 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/0fa14a09-a0bd-413c-b6f4-b032089f040a/ https://minutesof.com/q/0fa14a09-a0bd-413c-b6f4-b032089f040a/ “I mean, the markets have a way of separating, very risk seeking individuals from their capital. It may not happen overnight, but it always happens eventually. Like there's no easy money.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/981906a5-c2b5-4e44-8e98-596f76571c4f/ https://minutesof.com/q/981906a5-c2b5-4e44-8e98-596f76571c4f/ “So on March 8, the stock was trading at $260 a share. So there are people that want to put this on risk taking in Silicon Valley, but Wall Street got it wrong too.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/9b74baa1-b2aa-4691-a182-d1dc892d30ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/9b74baa1-b2aa-4691-a182-d1dc892d30ae/ “And maybe FTX is the perfect pinnacle of this past one where a bunch of legendary investors just ignored risk. You know, and they wouldn't have done that in 2009.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/f6a090a8-4f45-4e43-a76e-6486503c6eaa/ https://minutesof.com/q/f6a090a8-4f45-4e43-a76e-6486503c6eaa/ “And you're taking more and more risk and you don't know it because everyone around you is taking the same amount of risk.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/c1542d35-d580-4c80-a252-68a8b8f65783/ https://minutesof.com/q/c1542d35-d580-4c80-a252-68a8b8f65783/ “And in this past boom, in addition to everyone starting a venture firm, every venture firm started multiple venture firms and growth firms, and all that money gets piled up and you're slowly taking on risk and you don't realize it. It's like the roller coaster goes, nink, nink, nink, nink, nink.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/6ce7bb89-8b04-4635-a24a-552688785040/ https://minutesof.com/q/6ce7bb89-8b04-4635-a24a-552688785040/ “So when things boom, everyone starts a venture firm. Right? And in this past boom, in addition to everyone starting a venture firm, every venture firm started multiple venture firms and growth firms, and all that money gets piled up and you're slowly taking on risk and you don't realize it.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Originals Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:00:14 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/9b9b57ae-8a78-4042-b399-df74d123e28e/ https://minutesof.com/q/9b9b57ae-8a78-4042-b399-df74d123e28e/ “2022 was a good opportunity for us to realize that public can be both safe and risky, and private can be both safe and risky. The only difference is a degree of liquidity.” — Marc Rowan, Barron's Thu, 11 May 2023 15:16:29 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/4fc59d63-45d3-471c-a521-83ca67ea5581/ https://minutesof.com/q/4fc59d63-45d3-471c-a521-83ca67ea5581/ “Or was it a really clever thing that nobody else had figured out where you were sure to double your money? And the answer is you can't tell.” — Howard Marks, Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/789539a4-30c2-45f4-b54f-4e486f74c772/ https://minutesof.com/q/789539a4-30c2-45f4-b54f-4e486f74c772/ “Either the financial system is going to melt down or it's not. If it melts down, it doesn't matter whether we bought or not, because it's, you know, it's game over for everything.” — Howard Marks, Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/7057e7f8-abf8-4b22-8214-8ec5cd85b4ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/7057e7f8-abf8-4b22-8214-8ec5cd85b4ed/ “I'd hold up an article from the news, I said, Look at this piece of crap that got issued yesterday. If a company can raise money on this basis, there's something wrong in the market.” — Howard Marks, Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/8446b6e0-024f-41f3-815b-babb97db591e/ https://minutesof.com/q/8446b6e0-024f-41f3-815b-babb97db591e/ “it doesn't happen like a sine curve which is what we all imagine when we think of a cyclical business, it's more like a sawtooth.” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/308fd1f5-4b2f-484f-9aa5-19db5f9b947d/ https://minutesof.com/q/308fd1f5-4b2f-484f-9aa5-19db5f9b947d/ “And then risk off tends to be very abrupt and we've seen that here, right? This this cycle, risk on was from o nine. That's well said. To five months ago.” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/a2c976fd-98db-4177-a469-8ce8cbd3c538/ https://minutesof.com/q/a2c976fd-98db-4177-a469-8ce8cbd3c538/ “if you can count on higher returns from a risky asset, then by definition, it's not risky. So it's kind of an oxymoron. And I was never comfortable with this graphic.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/16335ebd-315f-44ea-97e4-89912095cbac/ https://minutesof.com/q/16335ebd-315f-44ea-97e4-89912095cbac/ “And if you bought those stocks, the day I got there in '69, and you held them firmly for five years, you lost almost all your money.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/d0b451ea-1184-44f3-8d79-faf5b736092b/ https://minutesof.com/q/d0b451ea-1184-44f3-8d79-faf5b736092b/ “A high quality asset can be priced so high that it's risky. I started work at Citibank in September 1969, when I got out of Chicago Booth.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/79066b85-fc27-4749-a5ca-fab31c9c7661/ https://minutesof.com/q/79066b85-fc27-4749-a5ca-fab31c9c7661/ “I also believe that risk is hidden and deceptive. This is really important. Loss is what happens when risk, the potential for loss collides with negative events.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/79066b85-fc27-4749-a5ca-fab31c9c7661/ https://minutesof.com/q/79066b85-fc27-4749-a5ca-fab31c9c7661/ “I also believe that risk is hidden and deceptive. This is really important. Loss is what happens when risk, the potential for loss collides with negative events.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/2ffb4237-944a-4551-b123-a6446d6da144/ https://minutesof.com/q/2ffb4237-944a-4551-b123-a6446d6da144/ “the riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there's no risk. Because when police when people believe there's no risk, they act in very risky ways, which makes the world a risky place.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/2ffb4237-944a-4551-b123-a6446d6da144/ https://minutesof.com/q/2ffb4237-944a-4551-b123-a6446d6da144/ “the riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there's no risk. Because when police when people believe there's no risk, they act in very risky ways, which makes the world a risky place.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e2a1de51-8e0e-49c5-8e8f-70a83aa5c263/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2a1de51-8e0e-49c5-8e8f-70a83aa5c263/ “I believe that the riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there's no risk.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e2a1de51-8e0e-49c5-8e8f-70a83aa5c263/ https://minutesof.com/q/e2a1de51-8e0e-49c5-8e8f-70a83aa5c263/ “I believe that the riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there's no risk.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/42eb0c6d-a03c-40a8-bbba-8934082a4882/ https://minutesof.com/q/42eb0c6d-a03c-40a8-bbba-8934082a4882/ “Even when it's over, you can't tell. Was that a safe investment that it was sure to produce a double? Or was it a risky investment where you got lucky?” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/55ddea35-f930-4c78-9ffc-656b6f03fd4f/ https://minutesof.com/q/55ddea35-f930-4c78-9ffc-656b6f03fd4f/ “You buy something for 100. A year later, sell it for 200. Was it risky? You can't tell. Even when it's over, you can't tell.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/1a96140a-13bf-4b7d-9744-5af0dde7a0be/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a96140a-13bf-4b7d-9744-5af0dde7a0be/ “risk is unquantifiable in advance. You can make reference to the historical volatility, the historical standard deviation, but number one, that's not a very good indicator of risk.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/1a96140a-13bf-4b7d-9744-5af0dde7a0be/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a96140a-13bf-4b7d-9744-5af0dde7a0be/ “risk is unquantifiable in advance. You can make reference to the historical volatility, the historical standard deviation, but number one, that's not a very good indicator of risk.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/b4f3e994-0349-4ec8-9634-7cadf1d44ca4/ https://minutesof.com/q/b4f3e994-0349-4ec8-9634-7cadf1d44ca4/ “Einstein, there's a great quote from Einstein, who said that not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/d357fd54-5066-4e06-8a80-9c0109dfd89a/ https://minutesof.com/q/d357fd54-5066-4e06-8a80-9c0109dfd89a/ “I think that one of the things you're taught here is that volatility is a measure of risk. Volatility is risk.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/d357fd54-5066-4e06-8a80-9c0109dfd89a/ https://minutesof.com/q/d357fd54-5066-4e06-8a80-9c0109dfd89a/ “I think that one of the things you're taught here is that volatility is a measure of risk. Volatility is risk.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/ac116a11-08ca-4597-aaef-38328f11b9ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/ac116a11-08ca-4597-aaef-38328f11b9ae/ “achieving an average return with below average risk is an equally significant accomplish, but easily overlooked because only the risk is evident, only the return is evident.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/ac116a11-08ca-4597-aaef-38328f11b9ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/ac116a11-08ca-4597-aaef-38328f11b9ae/ “achieving an average return with below average risk is an equally significant accomplish, but easily overlooked because only the risk is evident, only the return is evident.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e5d1a12a-ad5c-4c65-a05c-f10112a90a29/ https://minutesof.com/q/e5d1a12a-ad5c-4c65-a05c-f10112a90a29/ “I believe that achieving an average return with below average risk is an equally significant accomplish, but easily overlooked because only the risk is evident, only the return is evident.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e5d1a12a-ad5c-4c65-a05c-f10112a90a29/ https://minutesof.com/q/e5d1a12a-ad5c-4c65-a05c-f10112a90a29/ “I believe that achieving an average return with below average risk is an equally significant accomplish, but easily overlooked because only the risk is evident, only the return is evident.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/2be56cc4-0f89-44db-8dea-161e7acb6e88/ https://minutesof.com/q/2be56cc4-0f89-44db-8dea-161e7acb6e88/ “I often say you can take equity risk. You can take credit risk. The risk these institutions should always get paid for is liquidity risk.” — Marc Rowan, David Rubenstein Wed, 20 Apr 2022 11:09:09 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/7b8f2f4c-f5f4-46c9-95cd-c4217aa5820d/ https://minutesof.com/q/7b8f2f4c-f5f4-46c9-95cd-c4217aa5820d/ “And so for two thirds of the population, they don't have a huge risk and we're still locking them down.” — David Friedberg, All-In Podcast Thu, 21 May 2020 05:18:18 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/e46e3885-5725-4e3d-bba2-ec5775416256/ https://minutesof.com/q/e46e3885-5725-4e3d-bba2-ec5775416256/ “for people 60 who don't have these preexisting conditions, it's just not, yes, there's always examples to the contrary, but it's not this sort of gigantic risk.” — David Friedberg, All-In Podcast Thu, 21 May 2020 05:18:18 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/015b8347-176b-460d-820e-b78d8cf137e3/ https://minutesof.com/q/015b8347-176b-460d-820e-b78d8cf137e3/ “A lot of people are baselining off what happened in 'eight, 'nine. And I think that is dangerous because in 'eight, 'nine software was seven to 10 of IT spend.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/141db8c3-58fe-4d28-880c-52e84612ca27/ https://minutesof.com/q/141db8c3-58fe-4d28-880c-52e84612ca27/ “you don't need conservatism, caution, risk control, discipline, patience or selectivity. You need money and the nerve to spend it.” — Howard Marks, Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/141db8c3-58fe-4d28-880c-52e84612ca27/ https://minutesof.com/q/141db8c3-58fe-4d28-880c-52e84612ca27/ “you don't need conservatism, caution, risk control, discipline, patience or selectivity. You need money and the nerve to spend it.” — Howard Marks, Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/da3f4998-f66a-4f70-9429-e81f57abc8b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/da3f4998-f66a-4f70-9429-e81f57abc8b1/ “I think that an exceptional investor is someone who has a good return disproportionate to the risk born. A good return with the risk under control.” — Howard Marks, Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/da3f4998-f66a-4f70-9429-e81f57abc8b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/da3f4998-f66a-4f70-9429-e81f57abc8b1/ “I think that an exceptional investor is someone who has a good return disproportionate to the risk born. A good return with the risk under control.” — Howard Marks, Milken Institute Mon, 14 Jan 2019 19:09:05 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/809d9720-b805-49cd-898d-01816adc6fd9/ https://minutesof.com/q/809d9720-b805-49cd-898d-01816adc6fd9/ “I don't think terrorism in its current form, you know, presents a systemic threat to the nation. It presents, the possibility of horrible happenings,” — Sir Richard Dearlove, BBC Politics Thu, 14 Dec 2017 00:16:05 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/0870e3fd-1498-4a1b-8363-70b5e5db12b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/0870e3fd-1498-4a1b-8363-70b5e5db12b1/ “we brought out the first distressed debt fund. Now we're not investing in companies that have a risk of default. We're investing in bonds that are either in default or sure to be.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/8896cf44-e1db-448c-b8ff-4eee80c8376b/ https://minutesof.com/q/8896cf44-e1db-448c-b8ff-4eee80c8376b/ “in 'eighty eight, we brought out the first distressed debt fund. Now we're not investing in companies that have a risk of default.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/2b265d1b-4c51-4173-843d-3bb42879bdc9/ https://minutesof.com/q/2b265d1b-4c51-4173-843d-3bb42879bdc9/ “What percentile do you think that fund was in for the whole fourteen years? Four. Four. And if you think about it, it's really almost mysterious. Why the fourth, not the thirty seventh?” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/a2b1e9db-0285-436e-879e-ef420fde0680/ https://minutesof.com/q/a2b1e9db-0285-436e-879e-ef420fde0680/ “if you bought the bonds of Hewlett Packard, PerkinElmer, Texas Instruments, Merck, Lilly, Xerox, IBM, Kodak, Polaroid, AIG, Coca Cola, and Procter and Gamble, and if you bought them all in 'sixty eight and you held them until 'seventy three, you lost 90% of your money. Why? Because they were overpriced.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/54c9662a-8ca0-4920-9d34-578a7f93a970/ https://minutesof.com/q/54c9662a-8ca0-4920-9d34-578a7f93a970/ “So if you buy a high quality asset and I say in the book, there's a guy on the radio when I lived in LA,” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/37ded17b-44f8-411e-bfa2-a56aa9c591d3/ https://minutesof.com/q/37ded17b-44f8-411e-bfa2-a56aa9c591d3/ “risk means more things can happen than will happen. And again, this is profound in my opinion. In the economic world, people generally make their decisions based on something called expected value,” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/37ded17b-44f8-411e-bfa2-a56aa9c591d3/ https://minutesof.com/q/37ded17b-44f8-411e-bfa2-a56aa9c591d3/ “risk means more things can happen than will happen. And again, this is profound in my opinion. In the economic world, people generally make their decisions based on something called expected value,” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/9735f2b6-6ebe-47de-840d-e5e4a7e25b7c/ https://minutesof.com/q/9735f2b6-6ebe-47de-840d-e5e4a7e25b7c/ “There's a professor at the London Business School who put it succinctly. He said risk means more things can happen than will happen. And again, this is profound in my opinion.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/9735f2b6-6ebe-47de-840d-e5e4a7e25b7c/ https://minutesof.com/q/9735f2b6-6ebe-47de-840d-e5e4a7e25b7c/ “There's a professor at the London Business School who put it succinctly. He said risk means more things can happen than will happen. And again, this is profound in my opinion.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/6e71b30e-a021-477d-b97a-c98b20dbe242/ https://minutesof.com/q/6e71b30e-a021-477d-b97a-c98b20dbe242/ “you should not act as if the things that should happen are the things that will happen. Again, in the world of the physical sciences, you can probably bet that that's true.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/a04ecac2-80aa-482e-b894-63542718e09a/ https://minutesof.com/q/a04ecac2-80aa-482e-b894-63542718e09a/ “good decisions fail to work all the time. Bad decisions work all the time. The investment business is full of people who are, quote, right for the wrong reason.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/850c3776-7946-4dc4-a764-6a99f40dab95/ https://minutesof.com/q/850c3776-7946-4dc4-a764-6a99f40dab95/ “you can't tell from an outcome whether a decision was good or bad. It's very important. Most people don't understand this. Totally counterintuitive.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/7aac2437-7284-42e6-86f2-d064e4b5dfe9/ https://minutesof.com/q/7aac2437-7284-42e6-86f2-d064e4b5dfe9/ “And while I'm I'm not here to accuse people of being greedy, there is no fear in Silicon Valley right now, a complete absence of fear.” — Bill Gurley, SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 risk https://minutesof.com/q/37904117-1b3e-46f3-8f0e-d375ba48b973/ https://minutesof.com/q/37904117-1b3e-46f3-8f0e-d375ba48b973/ “But you didn't have a situation where people were putting $102,103 $104,109 $1,001,000,000,000 dollars into a private company who might only be four years old. These companies just haven't had the time to mature.” — Bill Gurley, SXSW Fri, 20 Mar 2015 17:13:49 +0000 risk