https://minutesof.com/on/supply-chain/ Everyone on the record about supply chain: 35 verbatim quotes from 6 people, March 2020 to August 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:33:16 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/0235e5c1-2209-4a3c-b1c5-ed6271534d2c/ https://minutesof.com/q/0235e5c1-2209-4a3c-b1c5-ed6271534d2c/ “I just think given that this is, the axis around which kind of everything is revolving, man, like, might blow up your entire business and your franchise by breaking an LTA.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like The Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 12:00:33 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/9b9f24e6-60a8-45bd-bf65-ed8b26a06923/ https://minutesof.com/q/9b9f24e6-60a8-45bd-bf65-ed8b26a06923/ “And right now, you know, if MacBook prices or iPhone prices go up a $100, that market's not gonna adjust too much,” — Dylan Patel, WisdomTree in Europe Thu, 09 Jul 2026 06:16:39 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/426304ad-3877-4fb3-a3f6-264771845ee3/ https://minutesof.com/q/426304ad-3877-4fb3-a3f6-264771845ee3/ “Memory capacity is only growing 30% a year for the next three years. And yet demand is doubling, is doubling. And so what's gonna end up happening is memory prices are gonna keep soaring.” — Dylan Patel, WisdomTree in Europe Thu, 09 Jul 2026 06:16:39 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/1146df8f-fda2-440e-b3ca-58362b2c1909/ https://minutesof.com/q/1146df8f-fda2-440e-b3ca-58362b2c1909/ “They're making a TPU with Broadcom, that's a different architecture than a TPU with MediaTek, that's a different TPU than the architecture that is, I won't disclose, by research.” — Dylan Patel, Sequoia Capital Tue, 30 Jun 2026 12:00:25 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/11ae3627-3c03-488e-83aa-76308403a2ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/11ae3627-3c03-488e-83aa-76308403a2ae/ “China has a vertical supply chain. Yes. In many cases, it's fifteen years behind, ten years behind, in some cases, only three years behind.” — Dylan Patel, Swole as a Service Wed, 13 May 2026 20:00:36 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/a8c57373-a3fe-4131-afd1-832e6b005059/ https://minutesof.com/q/a8c57373-a3fe-4131-afd1-832e6b005059/ “It would take five to eight years of all of the world's tool manufacturing capability Yeah. To even replace the capacity in Taiwan.” — Dylan Patel, Swole as a Service Wed, 13 May 2026 20:00:36 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/8069a2f4-c1da-4a82-b880-1c456a111132/ https://minutesof.com/q/8069a2f4-c1da-4a82-b880-1c456a111132/ “We try and track the entire supply chain from tools that manufacture chips, fabs, data centers, energy, industrials, and then AI models and who's using them, how much, and where.” — Dylan Patel, Swole as a Service Wed, 13 May 2026 20:00:36 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/0c038d22-7e17-4f58-8803-7254233cb26a/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c038d22-7e17-4f58-8803-7254233cb26a/ “MI three fifty from late last year from AMD or Tranium three and TPU v seven from late last year, or slash early this year from Amazon and Google” — Dylan Patel, Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/ba53114b-1d6a-4193-9d8e-5071f283a0c3/ https://minutesof.com/q/ba53114b-1d6a-4193-9d8e-5071f283a0c3/ “Right? Because all the AI chips are on three nanometer and it takes time, Small mobile chips are easier to make than big AI chips, so all the AI chips are moving to three nanometer now, right? MI three fifty from” — Dylan Patel, Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/d99d542e-883c-4529-a74c-51266d3590ff/ https://minutesof.com/q/d99d542e-883c-4529-a74c-51266d3590ff/ “Because there's no three nanometer capacity for them at TSMC, they need to chip somewhere else, and if you just if AI is as crazy as like we believe it is, and demand is as crazy as we believe it is, it's gonna be even crazier next year,” — Dylan Patel, Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/43612d0e-1c2c-44ce-bd43-30f7192175e9/ https://minutesof.com/q/43612d0e-1c2c-44ce-bd43-30f7192175e9/ “More importantly is that AI is buying all the capacity on three nanometer and two nanometer in a couple years that, people are having to turn to other directions.” — Dylan Patel, Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/f022ded7-b9fb-486a-adaa-4278b4cd8881/ https://minutesof.com/q/f022ded7-b9fb-486a-adaa-4278b4cd8881/ “I can buy 10,000. I could buy a 100,000. I can't buy millions, tens of millions, which is what Jensen's, setting his supply chain up for.” — Dylan Patel, CNBC Television Mon, 16 Mar 2026 21:58:55 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/ff2f7bf1-140d-43e5-ada7-c10acfd3d232/ https://minutesof.com/q/ff2f7bf1-140d-43e5-ada7-c10acfd3d232/ “as you look at what they're negotiating in the market today, there's over 250,000,000,000 of wafers, of memory, of substrates, of PCBs, of networking equipment that they're going to sign this year,” — Dylan Patel, CNBC Television Mon, 16 Mar 2026 21:58:55 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/fd13d4e3-a12c-4f89-a72e-66e0da0d0475/ https://minutesof.com/q/fd13d4e3-a12c-4f89-a72e-66e0da0d0475/ “NVIDIA has locked up over 60% of the capacity this year in long term contracts alone, and they're buying more on top of that.” — Dylan Patel, CNBC Television Mon, 16 Mar 2026 21:58:55 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/f055eebe-a3a4-4066-9750-79a424e3c7d0/ https://minutesof.com/q/f055eebe-a3a4-4066-9750-79a424e3c7d0/ “China has the most vertical stack in semiconductors today and they're the best at semiconductors in the world because their fabs could still run somewhat on a lot of things because they have built some of these chemical supply chains. Right? Like TSMC for certain kinds of chemicals 100% share from Japan.” — Dylan Patel, The MAD Podcast with Matt Turck Thu, 05 Feb 2026 13:30:16 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/8b546cbf-7428-4740-a672-99ccb7374ee7/ https://minutesof.com/q/8b546cbf-7428-4740-a672-99ccb7374ee7/ “The memory makers, in fact, have just not expanded capacity. Basically, new they've not built new fabs since 2022. Yeah. Because their their cycle their cycle is so undulating.” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/ab231a57-e3dc-4e62-afac-6f29f3648eeb/ https://minutesof.com/q/ab231a57-e3dc-4e62-afac-6f29f3648eeb/ “But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC. It's also memory both.” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/542f4c33-ef8f-4e1c-9fe2-7a3da921cad2/ https://minutesof.com/q/542f4c33-ef8f-4e1c-9fe2-7a3da921cad2/ “But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC.” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/267f5cee-22ee-4be6-bf05-893375b653c5/ https://minutesof.com/q/267f5cee-22ee-4be6-bf05-893375b653c5/ “When you first turn on the cluster, about ten to fifteen percent of them fail RMA in the first two weeks. Wow. And then that's fine.” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/a16842d1-124f-447a-89d3-73aa00b75632/ https://minutesof.com/q/a16842d1-124f-447a-89d3-73aa00b75632/ “NVIDIA learning from the issues on Hopper, with Blackwell, they actually doubled the time for system level test.” — Dylan Patel, Together AI Fri, 03 Oct 2025 20:23:30 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/43bca0f7-bb8f-4e77-8816-f0ed9665b52a/ https://minutesof.com/q/43bca0f7-bb8f-4e77-8816-f0ed9665b52a/ “No. No. No. Like, NVIDIA ordered the volume for the Xbox before Microsoft gave them the order.” — Dylan Patel, a16z Mon, 22 Sep 2025 13:01:51 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/f3ff6dd3-43c7-4d41-b081-6e9737c24256/ https://minutesof.com/q/f3ff6dd3-43c7-4d41-b081-6e9737c24256/ “even as near as twenty twenty two, the majority of China's robots were being imported. Right? Japan and Germany being the largest market share players,” — Dylan Patel, Going Direct Sun, 22 Jun 2025 21:30:00 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/0a5a65d1-e5d1-4965-9589-d9be71347bee/ https://minutesof.com/q/0a5a65d1-e5d1-4965-9589-d9be71347bee/ “even as near as twenty twenty two, the majority of China's robots were being imported. Right? Japan and Germany being the largest market share players, but also USA, Korea is also in there.” — Dylan Patel, Going Direct Sun, 22 Jun 2025 21:30:00 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/7604e916-a640-4696-9d9c-56a93546a4ec/ https://minutesof.com/q/7604e916-a640-4696-9d9c-56a93546a4ec/ “You gave me a statistic, which I hadn't heard before, which is we only graduate 200 people in degrees in mining today. Why did we stop mining?” — David Friedberg, All-In Podcast Tue, 06 May 2025 22:48:17 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/6efba2e7-6161-4f23-8644-c2e007650885/ https://minutesof.com/q/6efba2e7-6161-4f23-8644-c2e007650885/ “The R and D fab they announced is not going to secure R and D supply chain, right? It's not going to secure new node development, right?” — Dylan Patel, Special Competitive Studies Project Thu, 13 Mar 2025 16:42:15 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/0db47aa8-b79a-47e8-9231-c3d0fed5f45e/ https://minutesof.com/q/0db47aa8-b79a-47e8-9231-c3d0fed5f45e/ “Even if they do fully do the full $100,000,000,000 they commit to, completely still relying on R and D in Taiwan.” — Dylan Patel, Special Competitive Studies Project Thu, 13 Mar 2025 16:42:15 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/f61d9902-5463-482d-8cfa-de4dd5d7224d/ https://minutesof.com/q/f61d9902-5463-482d-8cfa-de4dd5d7224d/ “They gotta make real life decisions about what do I do with prices, what do I do with my supply chain, etcetera.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Wed, 12 Mar 2025 13:00:04 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/64260f0b-5b01-41cc-b5e6-b4cd813494c1/ https://minutesof.com/q/64260f0b-5b01-41cc-b5e6-b4cd813494c1/ “Their highest cost of goods sold is not TSMC, which is a thing that people don't realize. It's actually HBM memory, primarily SK for now also.” — Bill Gurley, Bg2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:25:20 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/2cdca5ca-185f-47fe-8738-234bf9c8e535/ https://minutesof.com/q/2cdca5ca-185f-47fe-8738-234bf9c8e535/ “The Japanese power grid has been like this. The Korean power grid has been like Only China and India and Indonesia, their power grids have been growing really fast.” — Dylan Patel, Scaling Intelligence Tue, 12 Nov 2024 04:17:00 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/29476b04-d67a-4d3f-8be3-bd44f3c5dbc1/ https://minutesof.com/q/29476b04-d67a-4d3f-8be3-bd44f3c5dbc1/ “Right? That's like a very closely guarded secret, most people that work at Google DeepMind don't even know number.” — Dylan Patel, Latent Space Tue, 05 Dec 2023 18:16:28 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/3758822d-6d28-4549-9783-84d049a8f9b1/ https://minutesof.com/q/3758822d-6d28-4549-9783-84d049a8f9b1/ “Google's actually ramping up TPU production massively. And I think people in AI would be like, Well, duh. But like, okay, who has the capability of figuring out the number?” — Dylan Patel, Latent Space Tue, 05 Dec 2023 18:16:28 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/fb13f24f-d903-4521-9be1-a668dcec5b78/ https://minutesof.com/q/fb13f24f-d903-4521-9be1-a668dcec5b78/ “call it four or five five, six months between, you know, when an order is placed and you can actually have it installed in your data center if it got worked on immediately.” — Dylan Patel, The Inside View Wed, 09 Aug 2023 15:00:23 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/8e03624f-6573-45dc-bc4b-f5a969338ad1/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e03624f-6573-45dc-bc4b-f5a969338ad1/ “It's not a comment on Amazon. It's just a comment on the supplier response. They have spent more money on CapEx in the last two years than they did in the preceding twenty years.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 25 Jan 2022 09:00:00 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/f416bfb9-09c1-4837-a356-39fe7d021aac/ https://minutesof.com/q/f416bfb9-09c1-4837-a356-39fe7d021aac/ “It doesn't really make sense for us to be dependent on China for our antibiotics, for our medicines, for our PPE, for any of these products that are important for national survival.” — David Sacks, All-In Podcast Thu, 21 May 2020 05:17:29 +0000 supply chain https://minutesof.com/q/40e3a753-cd06-4870-bcf5-8281eaf896b0/ https://minutesof.com/q/40e3a753-cd06-4870-bcf5-8281eaf896b0/ “The the world lives on a thirty day food supply. So if you stop food production today, there would only be thirty days of food for the whole world to eat based on our calorie consumption per day, and especially with an isolated border and we import a lot of food in The United States.” — David Friedberg, All-In Podcast Thu, 19 Mar 2020 01:16:53 +0000 supply chain