theory: everyone on the record — The Minutes https://minutesof.com/on/theory/ Everyone on the record about theory: 6 verbatim quotes from 2 people, May 2022 to March 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a link to its… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:33:17 +0000 John Williams: Williams explains the perverse result comes from wealth effects and higher rates leading househ https://minutesof.com/q/08a701be-9fe2-4ef1-8940-1a5636de83c8/ https://minutesof.com/q/08a701be-9fe2-4ef1-8940-1a5636de83c8/ “This “perverse” result, in the words of John Campbell (1994), 5 stems from the combination of a strong wealth effect and higher expected real interest rates, which contribute to a transition period during which households enjoy greater consumption and leisure.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches theory John Williams: Williams says standard theory paradoxically predicts productivity increases cause downturns wit https://minutesof.com/q/ff1dbc4a-135f-478e-80e0-b055409d789c/ https://minutesof.com/q/ff1dbc4a-135f-478e-80e0-b055409d789c/ “Assuming immediate recognition, standard macroeconomic theories predict a paradoxical result: an increase in trend productivity growth drives up real interest rates and causes an economic downturn, with hours worked, investment, and output declining.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches theory Howard Marks: Marks explains risky assets must appear to offer high returns but do not have to deliver them. https://minutesof.com/q/0c450801-47cb-4b14-8135-91dd3524a5a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c450801-47cb-4b14-8135-91dd3524a5a3/ “If a risky asset can be counted on to have a high return, then it's not risky. So it can't be true. It's incorrect on its face.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 theory Howard Marks: Marks defines risk as the probability of an undesirable outcome, not volatility. https://minutesof.com/q/e1076922-0e8c-41c6-9c98-b4019d166124/ https://minutesof.com/q/e1076922-0e8c-41c6-9c98-b4019d166124/ “Risk, in my opinion, and my view has evolved, risk is the probability negative outcome, of an undesirable outcome. It is not the volatility of the stream.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 theory Howard Marks: Marks defines risk as the probability of an undesirable outcome, not volatility or fluctuation. https://minutesof.com/q/427e10dc-a1fc-4740-8469-fb8202f73a6d/ https://minutesof.com/q/427e10dc-a1fc-4740-8469-fb8202f73a6d/ “Risk, in my opinion, and my view has evolved, risk is the probability negative outcome, of an undesirable outcome.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 theory Howard Marks: Marks challenges the risk-return line saying if higher returns are certain from risky assets, th https://minutesof.com/q/a2c976fd-98db-4177-a469-8ce8cbd3c538/ https://minutesof.com/q/a2c976fd-98db-4177-a469-8ce8cbd3c538/ “if you can count on higher returns from a risky asset, then by definition, it's not risky. So it's kind of an oxymoron. And I was never comfortable with this graphic.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 theory