timing: everyone on the record — The Minutes https://minutesof.com/on/timing/ Everyone on the record about timing: 12 verbatim quotes from 7 people, April 2020 to December 2025, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a link to… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:33:17 +0000 John Williams: Williams expects Fed will reach ample reserves soon based on sustained repo market pressures. https://minutesof.com/q/f1876f67-a731-45cb-90c4-e96b02fd5e7f/ https://minutesof.com/q/f1876f67-a731-45cb-90c4-e96b02fd5e7f/ “Based on recent sustained repo market pressures and other growing signs of reserves moving from abundant to ample, I expect that it will not be long before we reach ample reserves.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches timing Bill Gurley: Gurley warns retail investors that 100x AI returns already happened; current odds are very low. https://minutesof.com/q/bd5b05d6-34a6-4b5a-b236-2f88b007c06d/ https://minutesof.com/q/bd5b05d6-34a6-4b5a-b236-2f88b007c06d/ “And that's not to say there won't be an incremental AI investment that makes money, I think there will. But your odds right now of that being the case are really, really low.” — Bill Gurley, Tim Ferriss Wed, 17 Dec 2025 16:45:52 +0000 timing Dylan Patel: Patel released a post on GPT-3 training costs the same day ChatGPT launched, calling it coinciden https://minutesof.com/q/f725d6d8-7257-4187-b74c-e547d6f947bf/ https://minutesof.com/q/f725d6d8-7257-4187-b74c-e547d6f947bf/ “I was lucky enough that the day Chad GPT released, I released a post called that was about the training cost of GPT-three. It was just like a coincidence.” — Dylan Patel, Chris Best Substack Fri, 31 Oct 2025 18:23:40 +0000 timing Brad Gerstner: Gerstner has added a small Uber position in recent weeks during pullbacks. https://minutesof.com/q/ef844a59-5578-4ce5-af3c-e132ce078b21/ https://minutesof.com/q/ef844a59-5578-4ce5-af3c-e132ce078b21/ “We actually have a small slice of of Uber in our portfolio today that we've added right over the course of the past few weeks on some of these pullbacks.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 03 Apr 2025 18:08:17 +0000 timing Gavin Baker: Baker cites Chase Coleman's stat that less than 1% of Internet market cap was founded in two year https://minutesof.com/q/51c0b481-36ad-4763-ac8b-a0ef91a66582/ https://minutesof.com/q/51c0b481-36ad-4763-ac8b-a0ef91a66582/ “Only less than 1% of current global Internet market cap was founded. Founded in the two years after Netscape Navigator came out.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0000 timing Brad Gerstner: I mean, Satya talks about all the vast value capture occurs in the two to three year period aro https://minutesof.com/q/e7f08faa-a8fa-4f32-b2d0-407022d7cf65/ https://minutesof.com/q/e7f08faa-a8fa-4f32-b2d0-407022d7cf65/ “I mean, Satya talks about all the vast value capture occurs in the two to three year period around phase shifts. But it's hard to forecast in this those moments.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 07 Mar 2024 16:29:00 +0000 timing Brad Gerstner: I think there's plenty of time. If this is going to be as big and as transformational as humani https://minutesof.com/q/7e4d8b5f-4b70-4806-b8eb-aff80239e7d4/ https://minutesof.com/q/7e4d8b5f-4b70-4806-b8eb-aff80239e7d4/ “I think there's plenty of time. If this is going to be as big and as transformational as humanity as we all think it will be, remember, you didn't have to invest in search until Google's IPO in 2004 to capture 95% of all ever generated by Internet search.” — Brad Gerstner, FII Institute Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:01:13 +0000 timing Howard Marks: Marks argues bubbles exist because overpriced markets can become more overpriced before eventual https://minutesof.com/q/5686fbcc-3d21-4370-9c6e-24f8c45f1554/ https://minutesof.com/q/5686fbcc-3d21-4370-9c6e-24f8c45f1554/ “And if it were true that every overpriced markets reverts and becomes fairly priced, then we would never get a bubble because they would stop going up here.” — Howard Marks, Goldman Sachs Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:18:25 +0000 timing Bill Gurley: Gurley dates the current risk-on cycle from 2009 to five months before this event. https://minutesof.com/q/f7c261ad-e621-4977-b7af-0e1a63e138f4/ https://minutesof.com/q/f7c261ad-e621-4977-b7af-0e1a63e138f4/ “And then risk off tends to be very abrupt and we've seen that here, This cycle risk on was from 'nine to five months ago.” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 timing Brad Gerstner: Gerstner warns his team that being too early on a trend is as dangerous as being too late. https://minutesof.com/q/8e0c196b-bfc0-4efe-ad27-28128dde9827/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e0c196b-bfc0-4efe-ad27-28128dde9827/ “And I was talking of I was worried about the future of search and the future of vertical search starting in 2010,” — Brad Gerstner, Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 timing Brad Gerstner: Gerstner warns his team that being too early on investments is as dangerous as being too late. https://minutesof.com/q/17e528fc-9a14-4b9c-acd2-5f1673f9daea/ https://minutesof.com/q/17e528fc-9a14-4b9c-acd2-5f1673f9daea/ “When we think about the future we're always paying attention you know one thing that I would say is I remind my team it's just as dangerous to be too early as it is to be too late.” — Brad Gerstner, Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 timing David Sacks: Sacks notes California declared shelter in place only one week ahead of New York yet fared much b https://minutesof.com/q/43e8bf7b-5434-4a4f-a398-d8482d105f12/ https://minutesof.com/q/43e8bf7b-5434-4a4f-a398-d8482d105f12/ “The articles were saying, you know, California only declared shelter in place one week ahead of New York. How can it be doing so much better?” — David Sacks, All-In Podcast Sat, 11 Apr 2020 01:54:35 +0000 timing