https://minutesof.com/on/tsmc/ Everyone on the record about TSMC: 47 verbatim quotes from 4 people, November 2019 to July 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a link to… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:33:19 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/253cd136-c2ae-463c-993b-e953ec41d7ac/ https://minutesof.com/q/253cd136-c2ae-463c-993b-e953ec41d7ac/ “But they're just not going to and the TSM executives are the people who met with Sam Altman, and they dismissed him as a podcast pro.” — Gavin Baker, Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/0013527c-0b2d-442c-81ee-05978ee5d2a3/ https://minutesof.com/q/0013527c-0b2d-442c-81ee-05978ee5d2a3/ “But even if we solve the shortage of Watts with orbital data centers, the TSM is still a bottleneck. And semi's and semiconductor manufacturing, you have a big advantage if you were ahead.” — Gavin Baker, Generating Alpha Podcast Wed, 08 Jul 2026 15:54:53 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/863ee934-a388-4321-9492-e36421b5b97d/ https://minutesof.com/q/863ee934-a388-4321-9492-e36421b5b97d/ “They wanted them to catch up. They don't like having a monopsony. The a teams were in Taiwan working. Intel made some mistakes and presto.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/1def0bff-3374-41a1-8cc6-b9c33c78c1e2/ https://minutesof.com/q/1def0bff-3374-41a1-8cc6-b9c33c78c1e2/ “If Taiwan Semi did what Jensen wanted, I think Nvidia could sell $2,000,000,000,000 of GPUs in '26 or '27, maybe 2,500,000,000,000, maybe 3,000,000,000,000. But there is a limit where consumers would consume so much.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/03feb2b9-154d-43f6-9510-d695fcd49d03/ https://minutesof.com/q/03feb2b9-154d-43f6-9510-d695fcd49d03/ “I do think it's wild that Jensen has never had a contract with Taiwan Semi. They do business on what seems fair in handshakes.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/17aeec53-9e20-4cc3-bb0b-f1d5fa03e8e1/ https://minutesof.com/q/17aeec53-9e20-4cc3-bb0b-f1d5fa03e8e1/ “And if they doubled or tripled capacity, like, NVIDIA could probably sell $11,520,000,000,000 worth of chips next year. I really believe that.” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/3823ad4c-4e33-479c-8b0f-711768554c79/ https://minutesof.com/q/3823ad4c-4e33-479c-8b0f-711768554c79/ “And so they're just simply not expanding capacity as fast as Jensen wants. Jensen goes there every three months and, you know, maybe they expand, you know, 5%. He wants them to double or triple.” — Gavin Baker, Sohn Conference Foundation Fri, 15 May 2026 18:17:41 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/a8c57373-a3fe-4131-afd1-832e6b005059/ https://minutesof.com/q/a8c57373-a3fe-4131-afd1-832e6b005059/ “It would take five to eight years of all of the world's tool manufacturing capability Yeah. To even replace the capacity in Taiwan.” — Dylan Patel, Swole as a Service Wed, 13 May 2026 20:00:36 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/0c038d22-7e17-4f58-8803-7254233cb26a/ https://minutesof.com/q/0c038d22-7e17-4f58-8803-7254233cb26a/ “MI three fifty from late last year from AMD or Tranium three and TPU v seven from late last year, or slash early this year from Amazon and Google” — Dylan Patel, Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/f6f6cc9a-a485-4ad8-ba15-a7feb1b0d291/ https://minutesof.com/q/f6f6cc9a-a485-4ad8-ba15-a7feb1b0d291/ “Right? Because all the AI chips are on three nanometer and it takes time, Small mobile chips are easier to make than big AI chips, so all the AI chips are moving to three nanometer now, right?” — Dylan Patel, Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/ba53114b-1d6a-4193-9d8e-5071f283a0c3/ https://minutesof.com/q/ba53114b-1d6a-4193-9d8e-5071f283a0c3/ “Right? Because all the AI chips are on three nanometer and it takes time, Small mobile chips are easier to make than big AI chips, so all the AI chips are moving to three nanometer now, right? MI three fifty from” — Dylan Patel, Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/d99d542e-883c-4529-a74c-51266d3590ff/ https://minutesof.com/q/d99d542e-883c-4529-a74c-51266d3590ff/ “Because there's no three nanometer capacity for them at TSMC, they need to chip somewhere else, and if you just if AI is as crazy as like we believe it is, and demand is as crazy as we believe it is, it's gonna be even crazier next year,” — Dylan Patel, Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/d99d542e-883c-4529-a74c-51266d3590ff/ https://minutesof.com/q/d99d542e-883c-4529-a74c-51266d3590ff/ “Because there's no three nanometer capacity for them at TSMC, they need to chip somewhere else, and if you just if AI is as crazy as like we believe it is, and demand is as crazy as we believe it is, it's gonna be even crazier next year,” — Dylan Patel, Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/bf7d604d-4ab7-42db-b4f7-a84f08023b6a/ https://minutesof.com/q/bf7d604d-4ab7-42db-b4f7-a84f08023b6a/ “Part of it was because they want to have really fast inference, but like part of it is that Grok is manufactured on Samsung.” — Dylan Patel, Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/43612d0e-1c2c-44ce-bd43-30f7192175e9/ https://minutesof.com/q/43612d0e-1c2c-44ce-bd43-30f7192175e9/ “More importantly is that AI is buying all the capacity on three nanometer and two nanometer in a couple years that, people are having to turn to other directions.” — Dylan Patel, Daytona Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:12:37 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/6de9e7cc-be2c-4b14-aefa-a55d944bc979/ https://minutesof.com/q/6de9e7cc-be2c-4b14-aefa-a55d944bc979/ “I can't buy millions, tens of millions, which is what Jensen's, setting his supply chain up for.” — Dylan Patel, CNBC Television Mon, 16 Mar 2026 21:58:55 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/99be2869-e51d-4edf-b958-4a0eb31001f1/ https://minutesof.com/q/99be2869-e51d-4edf-b958-4a0eb31001f1/ “And as you look at what they're negotiating in the market today, there's over 250,000,000,000 of wafers, of memory, of substrates, of PCBs, of networking equipment that they're going to sign this year,” — Dylan Patel, CNBC Television Mon, 16 Mar 2026 21:58:55 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/140d046c-4ee9-45e2-8bc2-b7b611de4f7c/ https://minutesof.com/q/140d046c-4ee9-45e2-8bc2-b7b611de4f7c/ “You need about 55,000 wafers of three nanometer. You need about 6,000 wafers of five nanometer, and then you need about a 170,000 wafers of DRAM, right, memory.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Fri, 13 Mar 2026 16:26:57 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/ff6866ea-ea84-4f63-9d38-dd6b9d9f502b/ https://minutesof.com/q/ff6866ea-ea84-4f63-9d38-dd6b9d9f502b/ “a gigawatt of, you know, NVIDIA's Rubin chips. Right? So Rubin is announced at GTC, I believe, the week this podcast goes live.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Fri, 13 Mar 2026 16:26:57 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/f055eebe-a3a4-4066-9750-79a424e3c7d0/ https://minutesof.com/q/f055eebe-a3a4-4066-9750-79a424e3c7d0/ “China has the most vertical stack in semiconductors today and they're the best at semiconductors in the world because their fabs could still run somewhat on a lot of things because they have built some of these chemical supply chains. Right? Like TSMC for certain kinds of chemicals 100% share from Japan.” — Dylan Patel, The MAD Podcast with Matt Turck Thu, 05 Feb 2026 13:30:16 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/8b546cbf-7428-4740-a672-99ccb7374ee7/ https://minutesof.com/q/8b546cbf-7428-4740-a672-99ccb7374ee7/ “The memory makers, in fact, have just not expanded capacity. Basically, new they've not built new fabs since 2022. Yeah. Because their their cycle their cycle is so undulating.” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/ab231a57-e3dc-4e62-afac-6f29f3648eeb/ https://minutesof.com/q/ab231a57-e3dc-4e62-afac-6f29f3648eeb/ “But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC. It's also memory both.” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/ab231a57-e3dc-4e62-afac-6f29f3648eeb/ https://minutesof.com/q/ab231a57-e3dc-4e62-afac-6f29f3648eeb/ “But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC. It's also memory both.” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/542f4c33-ef8f-4e1c-9fe2-7a3da921cad2/ https://minutesof.com/q/542f4c33-ef8f-4e1c-9fe2-7a3da921cad2/ “But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC.” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/542f4c33-ef8f-4e1c-9fe2-7a3da921cad2/ https://minutesof.com/q/542f4c33-ef8f-4e1c-9fe2-7a3da921cad2/ “But it will fully beach semiconductors again in '27. Right? And so we see this across the entire space of the ecosystem. It's not just TSMC.” — Dylan Patel, TBPN Tue, 03 Feb 2026 23:08:03 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/2fbd833e-43d2-4979-b060-3b7eee145f15/ https://minutesof.com/q/2fbd833e-43d2-4979-b060-3b7eee145f15/ “We haven't seen a true capacity cycle in semis arguably since the late nineties. And that's because Taiwan Semi has been so good at aggregating and smoothing supply.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/e898c1a1-99db-492b-b3b5-38d0af412c82/ https://minutesof.com/q/e898c1a1-99db-492b-b3b5-38d0af412c82/ “they were able to acquire 3,000,000 chips, 2,900,000 chips from TSMC through these other entities. Right?” — Dylan Patel, a16z Mon, 22 Sep 2025 13:01:51 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/e898c1a1-99db-492b-b3b5-38d0af412c82/ https://minutesof.com/q/e898c1a1-99db-492b-b3b5-38d0af412c82/ “they were able to acquire 3,000,000 chips, 2,900,000 chips from TSMC through these other entities. Right?” — Dylan Patel, a16z Mon, 22 Sep 2025 13:01:51 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/bcf648c8-741d-4bb8-a8f4-c7267c7bba53/ https://minutesof.com/q/bcf648c8-741d-4bb8-a8f4-c7267c7bba53/ “In 2020, they released an Ascend chip and submit it to impartial public benchmarks, and they were the first to bring seven nanometer AI chips to market.” — Dylan Patel, a16z Mon, 22 Sep 2025 13:01:51 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/1bef91d6-c75f-476c-a33f-1cec565d5243/ https://minutesof.com/q/1bef91d6-c75f-476c-a33f-1cec565d5243/ “They're gonna have better negotiations with whether it's TSMC or SK Hynix and the memory and silicon side or all the rack people or, like, copper cables, everything, they're gonna have better cost efficiency.” — Dylan Patel, a16z Mon, 18 Aug 2025 18:26:43 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/af9d9adc-9470-4ff6-aba9-8433597b2e9f/ https://minutesof.com/q/af9d9adc-9470-4ff6-aba9-8433597b2e9f/ “NVIDIA's gonna have better networking than you. They're gonna have better, HBM. They're gonna have better process node. They're gonna come to market faster.” — Dylan Patel, a16z Mon, 18 Aug 2025 18:26:43 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/9a24a996-f514-477e-88a8-0882e5e5068f/ https://minutesof.com/q/9a24a996-f514-477e-88a8-0882e5e5068f/ “And if they were to continue to build out what we expect them to build out in the next four or five years, it's going get to 30%, 40%.” — Dylan Patel, Special Competitive Studies Project Thu, 13 Mar 2025 16:42:15 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/6efba2e7-6161-4f23-8644-c2e007650885/ https://minutesof.com/q/6efba2e7-6161-4f23-8644-c2e007650885/ “The R and D fab they announced is not going to secure R and D supply chain, right? It's not going to secure new node development, right?” — Dylan Patel, Special Competitive Studies Project Thu, 13 Mar 2025 16:42:15 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/0db47aa8-b79a-47e8-9231-c3d0fed5f45e/ https://minutesof.com/q/0db47aa8-b79a-47e8-9231-c3d0fed5f45e/ “Even if they do fully do the full $100,000,000,000 they commit to, completely still relying on R and D in Taiwan.” — Dylan Patel, Special Competitive Studies Project Thu, 13 Mar 2025 16:42:15 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/e5ca5eb9-cc98-492b-8356-ed620a8c3c70/ https://minutesof.com/q/e5ca5eb9-cc98-492b-8356-ed620a8c3c70/ “I mean, the list of companies, I think we're up to a trillion, a trillion and $0.5 of reinvestment.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Wed, 12 Mar 2025 13:00:04 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/c6c1ad8c-5c13-4f2b-b47b-f745e6942016/ https://minutesof.com/q/c6c1ad8c-5c13-4f2b-b47b-f745e6942016/ “Another thing that came out this morning that I was kind of waiting on as a proof point, because it didn't make sense to me that it hadn't happened yet, TSMC said they're gonna do across the board 20 price increase.” — Bill Gurley, BG2 Pod Thu, 31 Oct 2024 17:46:51 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/c17dd34d-6330-45ef-ac94-0e2d4084112b/ https://minutesof.com/q/c17dd34d-6330-45ef-ac94-0e2d4084112b/ “funding the next node would not be economically viable anymore if it weren't for AI taking off. Right? And then generating all this humongous demand for the most leading edge chip.” — Dylan Patel, Dwarkesh Patel Wed, 02 Oct 2024 14:59:36 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/5493dbf4-b8e6-42da-bd18-9fdf8dd9d0ee/ https://minutesof.com/q/5493dbf4-b8e6-42da-bd18-9fdf8dd9d0ee/ “There was a super interesting comment made by the new chairman of TSMC where he said, OpenAI, Sam Altman, is too aggressive for me to believe.” — Bill Gurley, BG2 Pod Mon, 10 Jun 2024 13:40:00 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/86ac248f-4cf7-4321-a389-93eb8a7668ea/ https://minutesof.com/q/86ac248f-4cf7-4321-a389-93eb8a7668ea/ “In TSMC, they're getting paid, you know, only like 80 to 150 k. Right? Like USD. Right?” — Dylan Patel, Hidden Forces Wed, 04 Oct 2023 14:00:36 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/86ac248f-4cf7-4321-a389-93eb8a7668ea/ https://minutesof.com/q/86ac248f-4cf7-4321-a389-93eb8a7668ea/ “In TSMC, they're getting paid, you know, only like 80 to 150 k. Right? Like USD. Right?” — Dylan Patel, Hidden Forces Wed, 04 Oct 2023 14:00:36 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/bed52b60-a2a3-49ce-9fb2-f4b80bc34583/ https://minutesof.com/q/bed52b60-a2a3-49ce-9fb2-f4b80bc34583/ “TSMC tried both. Right? And so at six nanometer and five nanometer, they use EUV, but they think cost efficiency wise, yield, right, which is how good the product's coming out, how many are good, how many need to be thrown away, the yield is better, the cost is better, the performance is better with DUV rather than EUV.” — Dylan Patel, Hidden Forces Wed, 04 Oct 2023 14:00:36 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/bed52b60-a2a3-49ce-9fb2-f4b80bc34583/ https://minutesof.com/q/bed52b60-a2a3-49ce-9fb2-f4b80bc34583/ “TSMC tried both. Right? And so at six nanometer and five nanometer, they use EUV, but they think cost efficiency wise, yield, right, which is how good the product's coming out, how many are good, how many need to be thrown away, the yield is better, the cost is better, the performance is better with DUV rather than EUV.” — Dylan Patel, Hidden Forces Wed, 04 Oct 2023 14:00:36 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/b609ca8d-71f1-4c47-b2ca-68b6d4ae9b0c/ https://minutesof.com/q/b609ca8d-71f1-4c47-b2ca-68b6d4ae9b0c/ “So TSMC, to this day, even though they've been use they have over 50 EUV tools and they make hundreds of thousands of wafers a month with EUV, still uses DUV for their seven nanometer.” — Dylan Patel, Hidden Forces Wed, 04 Oct 2023 14:00:36 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/b609ca8d-71f1-4c47-b2ca-68b6d4ae9b0c/ https://minutesof.com/q/b609ca8d-71f1-4c47-b2ca-68b6d4ae9b0c/ “So TSMC, to this day, even though they've been use they have over 50 EUV tools and they make hundreds of thousands of wafers a month with EUV, still uses DUV for their seven nanometer.” — Dylan Patel, Hidden Forces Wed, 04 Oct 2023 14:00:36 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/940850fc-7265-42d9-9733-544123ca524d/ https://minutesof.com/q/940850fc-7265-42d9-9733-544123ca524d/ “TSMC and Intel were able to do it with what's called multi patterning DUV, deep ultraviolet. Right? So that just means they use the DUV lithography many times, right, for simplicity's sake.” — Dylan Patel, Hidden Forces Wed, 04 Oct 2023 14:00:36 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/940850fc-7265-42d9-9733-544123ca524d/ https://minutesof.com/q/940850fc-7265-42d9-9733-544123ca524d/ “TSMC and Intel were able to do it with what's called multi patterning DUV, deep ultraviolet. Right? So that just means they use the DUV lithography many times, right, for simplicity's sake.” — Dylan Patel, Hidden Forces Wed, 04 Oct 2023 14:00:36 +0000 tsmc https://minutesof.com/q/15fb6ff0-cdb7-40cc-af02-8e5afd2dc17e/ https://minutesof.com/q/15fb6ff0-cdb7-40cc-af02-8e5afd2dc17e/ “Taiwan Semi got to the node before Intel, which meant that Taiwan Semi, who supplies most semiconductor companies that you can think of Yeah.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 tsmc