https://minutesof.com/on/uncertainty/ Everyone on the record about uncertainty: 17 verbatim quotes from 5 people, March 2015 to June 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a link… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:33:19 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/ad88fd72-7c25-47ae-907a-97a43cd8fb57/ https://minutesof.com/q/ad88fd72-7c25-47ae-907a-97a43cd8fb57/ “Indeed, if the uncertainty is great enough, the optimal level of reserves can exceed the cutoff for abundant reserves under no uncertainty.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/6b20022b-66ee-4d47-9b2b-8cf03ee25ee8/ https://minutesof.com/q/6b20022b-66ee-4d47-9b2b-8cf03ee25ee8/ “Absent a lending facility, the optimal supply of reserves under uncertainty is unequivocally higher than it is without uncertainty.” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/efb878ef-34a1-4337-b1ae-2fb1f4a951ba/ https://minutesof.com/q/efb878ef-34a1-4337-b1ae-2fb1f4a951ba/ “This is the hardest thing I think I've ever seen in the investment world because of this enormous degree of uncertainty.” — Howard Marks, Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/d6ea2caa-3f0e-4db8-9d73-5fe4e842e28f/ https://minutesof.com/q/d6ea2caa-3f0e-4db8-9d73-5fe4e842e28f/ “I've never heard anybody tell me exactly what AI will be able to do or when or for whom or how much profit it'll produce and for whom.” — Howard Marks, Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/7733a983-4965-4bf3-8f33-e91c6ac63172/ https://minutesof.com/q/7733a983-4965-4bf3-8f33-e91c6ac63172/ “Are some AI models smarter than others? Since they all have super IQs, computing power, and they all are trained on the same history, are some smarter than others?” — Howard Marks, Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/f3dad23e-927a-4faf-8403-8b8b1bc3cfd7/ https://minutesof.com/q/f3dad23e-927a-4faf-8403-8b8b1bc3cfd7/ “We're at the we're in the first inning of a very long unpredictable game. We don't know what the rules are or or have any idea how many innings there are in the game.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/f1c96d04-4b75-4e18-b602-59c0af6c1688/ https://minutesof.com/q/f1c96d04-4b75-4e18-b602-59c0af6c1688/ “I would say if you think you know what's gonna happen, you don't know understand what's going on.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/e0738fd2-992a-4f2f-953e-3dceeb6a4864/ https://minutesof.com/q/e0738fd2-992a-4f2f-953e-3dceeb6a4864/ “I would say if you think you know what's gonna happen, you don't know understand what's going on. We're at the we're in the first inning of a very long unpredictable game.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:25:57 +0000 uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/05a1d0f2-89c4-4ba5-a2f6-9c16c37371ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/05a1d0f2-89c4-4ba5-a2f6-9c16c37371ae/ “It's a probability distribution. It's a range of possibilities in each thing, whether it's GDP growth next year or inflation next year, or who's going to win the next election,” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/ef1891a8-885c-4b64-ac23-be7decfb8638/ https://minutesof.com/q/ef1891a8-885c-4b64-ac23-be7decfb8638/ “The future is not a set single thing that if you're smart enough, you can figure it out what it's going to be and it's going to materialize and make you right.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/d92352fb-403c-4898-93c3-57c399f3774a/ https://minutesof.com/q/d92352fb-403c-4898-93c3-57c399f3774a/ “Fog of war. I can't predict thirty five years into the future of those free cash flows, so I have to pull it in a little bit.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:47:27 +0000 uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/aa4363bf-6a39-4078-ae21-2e739a50bcbe/ https://minutesof.com/q/aa4363bf-6a39-4078-ae21-2e739a50bcbe/ “The fact is if experts looking out not all that far have no idea, we are making a fundamental bet on equity.” — Marc Rowan, Yahoo Finance Sun, 21 Dec 2025 16:00:06 +0000 uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/8eb07bfe-01aa-40a9-857d-dcf1bcbe4688/ https://minutesof.com/q/8eb07bfe-01aa-40a9-857d-dcf1bcbe4688/ “And that's important because no one on planet earth knows how or why scaling laws for pre training work. It's actually not a law.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:05:00 +0000 uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/87ff320f-836b-487e-9716-16a70df9701f/ https://minutesof.com/q/87ff320f-836b-487e-9716-16a70df9701f/ “When uncertainty goes up, discount rates go up, risk premiums go up, multiples come down, markets come down. That's that's the explanation for the last four weeks in the market.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Wed, 12 Mar 2025 13:00:04 +0000 uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/f61d9902-5463-482d-8cfa-de4dd5d7224d/ https://minutesof.com/q/f61d9902-5463-482d-8cfa-de4dd5d7224d/ “They gotta make real life decisions about what do I do with prices, what do I do with my supply chain, etcetera.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Wed, 12 Mar 2025 13:00:04 +0000 uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/42eb0c6d-a03c-40a8-bbba-8934082a4882/ https://minutesof.com/q/42eb0c6d-a03c-40a8-bbba-8934082a4882/ “Even when it's over, you can't tell. Was that a safe investment that it was sure to produce a double? Or was it a risky investment where you got lucky?” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 uncertainty https://minutesof.com/q/6e71b30e-a021-477d-b97a-c98b20dbe242/ https://minutesof.com/q/6e71b30e-a021-477d-b97a-c98b20dbe242/ “you should not act as if the things that should happen are the things that will happen. Again, in the world of the physical sciences, you can probably bet that that's true.” — Howard Marks, Talks at Google Mon, 30 Mar 2015 02:08:35 +0000 uncertainty