https://minutesof.com/on/valuation/ Everyone on the record about valuation: 117 verbatim quotes from 8 people, June 2011 to August 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a link… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:33:19 +0000 https://minutesof.com/q/064c931f-9092-4e67-90c0-a4902bd8eba2/ https://minutesof.com/q/064c931f-9092-4e67-90c0-a4902bd8eba2/ “NVIDIA is actually, as we record this, at its lowest forward PE of the last ten years.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 04 Aug 2026 08:00:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/f0ff4ce0-8d06-42c7-872d-d7d2d0bf00f1/ https://minutesof.com/q/f0ff4ce0-8d06-42c7-872d-d7d2d0bf00f1/ “SK Hynix. Back to your point, seven times twenty twenty seven numbers, the single greatest bottleneck in the production of tokens.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:55:26 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/bdcca5ad-82aa-4024-bb64-a4a2ba8d4629/ https://minutesof.com/q/bdcca5ad-82aa-4024-bb64-a4a2ba8d4629/ “I think it was probably the next best lab in the country beyond the Frontier Labs. We thought this company could get to 10,000,000,000 in revenue on its own this year.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:55:26 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/cd7f06cf-f9c4-45ec-b964-97d8bcb5d75b/ https://minutesof.com/q/cd7f06cf-f9c4-45ec-b964-97d8bcb5d75b/ “So so to look at at the at the max seven take out Tesla, they're selling at PE ratios in the thirties.” — Howard Marks, Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/6874b109-a4f7-4bea-a5c6-b01b6017397b/ https://minutesof.com/q/6874b109-a4f7-4bea-a5c6-b01b6017397b/ “When I started in this business as a young man, 1969, in the research department at Citibank, the bank and most of the banks invested in what were called the nifty 50, which were considered to be the best and fastest growing companies in America,” — Howard Marks, Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/968df78b-59e4-49d6-88e1-b52fc92cab54/ https://minutesof.com/q/968df78b-59e4-49d6-88e1-b52fc92cab54/ “You know, the the the non Shiller PE ratio is about 23 or so today. The eighty year average is 16. So we're roughly 50% higher today. But in 2000, I think it was 32.” — Howard Marks, Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/f0d15cf7-38a0-4bd3-9ba6-3d1f55b28cfa/ https://minutesof.com/q/f0d15cf7-38a0-4bd3-9ba6-3d1f55b28cfa/ “And, you know, those things showed the the market to be, I used the expression a year ago, lofty but not nutty.” — Howard Marks, Prof G Markets Fri, 12 Jun 2026 11:00:07 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/0a0e203d-8568-41d2-93f0-c438e34d8d7d/ https://minutesof.com/q/0a0e203d-8568-41d2-93f0-c438e34d8d7d/ “So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained. I'm gonna make up a new number. URR, unconstrained revenue.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/11b9d32f-6e26-4a8c-b4ca-233ed1e5e9c1/ https://minutesof.com/q/11b9d32f-6e26-4a8c-b4ca-233ed1e5e9c1/ “I think they would be doing materially more a hundred, one hundred and fifty, maybe 200,000,000,000. So you might be buying it at more like five times unconstrained.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Wed, 20 May 2026 08:00:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/faf2901e-7c97-4bf1-962f-69b5efbd3d5c/ https://minutesof.com/q/faf2901e-7c97-4bf1-962f-69b5efbd3d5c/ “Software stocks have reverted from a decade long superior multiple to the market to a market multiple.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Fri, 15 May 2026 20:31:59 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/129e13e6-5fbe-4081-95ac-46eb801a1f02/ https://minutesof.com/q/129e13e6-5fbe-4081-95ac-46eb801a1f02/ “I've said before, I think NVIDIA will be the first $10,000,000,000,000 company. I you know, as I sit here, you know, in in May '26, I believe that to be true.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Tue, 05 May 2026 22:10:35 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/5094e131-01d9-482c-a310-2f57fd8690b0/ https://minutesof.com/q/5094e131-01d9-482c-a310-2f57fd8690b0/ “Think about memory as an industry is only trading at five times earning. In the case of NVIDIA, trading at 13 or 14, fully taxed gap earnings.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Tue, 05 May 2026 22:10:35 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/35da5df9-c184-4c63-b775-aeb64dac0cb2/ https://minutesof.com/q/35da5df9-c184-4c63-b775-aeb64dac0cb2/ “I think NVIDIA is terribly, under owned. I think it's terribly, undervalued today, and so we're happy to sit in that and to own it.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Mon, 04 May 2026 19:16:21 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/66ef6e45-a60f-423f-b1bd-1b71ff6bf27b/ https://minutesof.com/q/66ef6e45-a60f-423f-b1bd-1b71ff6bf27b/ “At a $195, Nvidia is trading lower than it was six months ago. So it's hard to say at 13 or 14 times” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Mon, 04 May 2026 19:16:21 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/295ddc25-3844-40e9-ad8b-e31f81299114/ https://minutesof.com/q/295ddc25-3844-40e9-ad8b-e31f81299114/ “They're they're trading at five x fully taxed earnings. Samsung's gonna do more in profits this year than Google.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Mon, 04 May 2026 19:16:21 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/efa4c53a-8635-4d5f-b34a-cc2c3dfb3f6e/ https://minutesof.com/q/efa4c53a-8635-4d5f-b34a-cc2c3dfb3f6e/ “So, it was a and so that was a real disaster for the people who invested in the Nifty Fifty, which was most of the money center banks.” — Howard Marks, Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/d9b7f080-7d66-4f47-a8d2-618d9a050692/ https://minutesof.com/q/d9b7f080-7d66-4f47-a8d2-618d9a050692/ “if you bought those stocks the day I got to work in September of 'sixty nine, if you held them tenaciously for five years, you lost about 95% of your money.” — Howard Marks, Nikhil Kamath Mon, 04 May 2026 14:30:01 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/b2a982f7-b729-44b0-8f81-91eec52c6a33/ https://minutesof.com/q/b2a982f7-b729-44b0-8f81-91eec52c6a33/ “When I was a kid and came into this business in '69, the Nifty Fifty were selling at PE ratios between sixty and ninety. So today's Mag seven in the thirties seem reasonable.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/02b95898-ae5b-4520-bcc9-479ea6d3fbec/ https://minutesof.com/q/02b95898-ae5b-4520-bcc9-479ea6d3fbec/ “I happen to believe that the Mag seven, most of or all of them are the best companies I've ever seen.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/61f16caf-4a11-4520-a2cf-592d3ae4c24e/ https://minutesof.com/q/61f16caf-4a11-4520-a2cf-592d3ae4c24e/ “I think it should be valued at what an intelligent, unemotional buyer would pay for it today.” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/48e6a01a-4a22-4e26-8757-fd112b3f68f2/ https://minutesof.com/q/48e6a01a-4a22-4e26-8757-fd112b3f68f2/ “Am I supposed to value these things at what they're worth? What I could sell them for? What I could sell half for?” — Howard Marks, CNBC Television Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:53:37 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/d6c97e35-a153-488e-a289-9b08b060d417/ https://minutesof.com/q/d6c97e35-a153-488e-a289-9b08b060d417/ “People wanna understand why the Nvidia multiple won't go higher. I think it's the circular deals. Like if they're not material, don't do them.” — Bill Gurley, Prof G Markets Fri, 27 Mar 2026 11:00:44 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/4416c4a2-8868-4190-8f4b-779aa2dcbce0/ https://minutesof.com/q/4416c4a2-8868-4190-8f4b-779aa2dcbce0/ “But the lesson I learned from my experience with the nifty 50 in '69 was that it's not what you buy, it's what you pay that matters.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/a0ab166c-bf59-49e3-be8d-7dc2a71d8fb1/ https://minutesof.com/q/a0ab166c-bf59-49e3-be8d-7dc2a71d8fb1/ “And if you bought the stocks the day I got to work in '69 and you held them for five years, the greatest companies in America, you lost about 95% of your money.” — Howard Marks, Oaktree Tue, 24 Mar 2026 14:08:16 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/5b4113c2-c120-4fd3-b3f4-6387d3b071ad/ https://minutesof.com/q/5b4113c2-c120-4fd3-b3f4-6387d3b071ad/ “So if you bought the stocks the day I got there, I think it was 09/22/1969, if I'm not mistaken, and if you held them tenaciously for five years, the greatest company is America, you lost about 95% of your money.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/7d35714b-4b54-432f-af75-8f9f520b0e16/ https://minutesof.com/q/7d35714b-4b54-432f-af75-8f9f520b0e16/ “These were the 50 best and fastest growing companies in America, where nothing could go wrong and there was no price too high.” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/18effe83-7b96-418d-8bdb-31a5eeb58aca/ https://minutesof.com/q/18effe83-7b96-418d-8bdb-31a5eeb58aca/ “I mean, company values haven't doubled, intrinsic values, but prices have doubled, so it's been a great time, and great times encourage the desire to put money to work and discourage analysis,” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/eaa3ce09-3f74-4e7e-ac01-9176ea607804/ https://minutesof.com/q/eaa3ce09-3f74-4e7e-ac01-9176ea607804/ “since roughly 09/30/2022, I would venture that the S and P has doubled. I mean, company values haven't doubled, intrinsic values, but prices have doubled, so it's been a great time,” — Howard Marks, Bloomberg Television Wed, 18 Mar 2026 17:49:13 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/8617f662-a82f-411e-8327-239874331e26/ https://minutesof.com/q/8617f662-a82f-411e-8327-239874331e26/ “And I think that the way the industry is structured in this would require longer conversation. There's no incentive for the operators inside of the endowments or foundations to get the paper marks right.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/2c885987-19ef-4ccb-ae15-63930428aead/ https://minutesof.com/q/2c885987-19ef-4ccb-ae15-63930428aead/ “I already knew in San Francisco that Uber was 20 x bigger than the taxi market. He didn't know that.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/8e98f130-77e9-4631-85ed-88969d27f6f7/ https://minutesof.com/q/8e98f130-77e9-4631-85ed-88969d27f6f7/ “He published this piece that said Uber would never be worth more than $4,000,000,000 And I wrote one of my favorite blog posts ever titled How to Miss by a Mile, where I took apart his analysis and tried to well, I had a little I had an unfair advantage.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Podcasts Thu, 05 Mar 2026 01:47:37 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/525c0fcc-5beb-466a-8ae5-ff2eccd45edf/ https://minutesof.com/q/525c0fcc-5beb-466a-8ae5-ff2eccd45edf/ “Their incremental profitability is enormous. When your product is virtual and you're selling one, you're making some money, you want to sell two, there's almost no cost in the second one.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/86b11b15-1235-48db-9723-c3ed41753f40/ https://minutesof.com/q/86b11b15-1235-48db-9723-c3ed41753f40/ “And I say in the memo, for example, that some woman left OpenAI, started a company called Thinking Machine Labs, went out to raise money, and she said this company is going to engage in AI, but I can't tell you what we're going to do. It's a secret. And people gave her $2,000,000,000 for a sixth of the company.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/8dc27259-e6f9-4a81-aa93-44d0b2d23ec1/ https://minutesof.com/q/8dc27259-e6f9-4a81-aa93-44d0b2d23ec1/ “it's not what you buy, it's what you pay. And good investing is not just a function of buying good things, but of buying things well.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/28ecaca1-f18f-411c-9884-1412a939497d/ https://minutesof.com/q/28ecaca1-f18f-411c-9884-1412a939497d/ “We can't forecast as well. Therefore, the terminal value must be lower. The discount rate is higher and the multiple comes down. So the stocks come down well before they start missing.” — Brad Gerstner, Fox Business Mon, 02 Mar 2026 03:00:34 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/481b12da-0839-4433-a067-c6a1fe9888fd/ https://minutesof.com/q/481b12da-0839-4433-a067-c6a1fe9888fd/ “for most of these high-tech companies, the next five years cash flow are a fraction of their actual market cap, which means all the values in the terminal value.” — Bill Gurley, Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/7339e8da-6ddc-4065-b386-8fef28d5a1bd/ https://minutesof.com/q/7339e8da-6ddc-4065-b386-8fef28d5a1bd/ “And for most of these high-tech companies, the next five years cash flow are a fraction of their actual market cap, which means all the values in the terminal value.” — Bill Gurley, Brew Markets Fri, 27 Feb 2026 20:28:10 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/6ede688f-5cb5-4f3d-8846-8e3a62417ff7/ https://minutesof.com/q/6ede688f-5cb5-4f3d-8846-8e3a62417ff7/ “You're never going to have a bubble in paper stocks or timber stocks. It's too prosaic. People can say, well, we can tell how many houses you're going to build.” — Howard Marks, The Investor’s Podcast Sat, 21 Feb 2026 22:45:03 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/d92352fb-403c-4898-93c3-57c399f3774a/ https://minutesof.com/q/d92352fb-403c-4898-93c3-57c399f3774a/ “Fog of war. I can't predict thirty five years into the future of those free cash flows, so I have to pull it in a little bit.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:47:27 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/b1727be3-768a-4412-8f88-ef2843728845/ https://minutesof.com/q/b1727be3-768a-4412-8f88-ef2843728845/ “I can't see as far into the future, so I'm gonna pay less for the terminal value. I'm gonna pay less for those future free cash flows.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:47:27 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/a868d3c3-ab1c-4b55-9cbd-71646ac2beb2/ https://minutesof.com/q/a868d3c3-ab1c-4b55-9cbd-71646ac2beb2/ “Give them 35 times free cash flow because I had that level of predictability. It was like a government bond.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Fri, 06 Feb 2026 21:47:27 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/a9ba3b83-6851-49ef-baed-4447f23000bc/ https://minutesof.com/q/a9ba3b83-6851-49ef-baed-4447f23000bc/ “Look at that peak in 2021. Right? We're almost 17 times forward revenue. Today, we're at at about 4.2 times. So we're at a generational low in terms of the the multiple for software.” — Brad Gerstner, Altimeter Capital Wed, 07 Jan 2026 22:13:03 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/3344c550-e75a-4713-842b-9dc7cc319db4/ https://minutesof.com/q/3344c550-e75a-4713-842b-9dc7cc319db4/ “The consensus estimate this year, I think, is that they're gonna grow earnings about 65%, maybe 30% in 2027. You said it's an earnings driven market, so they don't need to expand multiple.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Tue, 06 Jan 2026 18:25:41 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/6e401eb5-6c61-41ac-bac8-c4109c5148f6/ https://minutesof.com/q/6e401eb5-6c61-41ac-bac8-c4109c5148f6/ “then you've gotta earn about a trillion dollars of AI revenue for all of this CapEx to be worth it.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Tue, 23 Dec 2025 23:00:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/321829bd-6978-421e-be99-3f33e66f14c4/ https://minutesof.com/q/321829bd-6978-421e-be99-3f33e66f14c4/ “Now if they're doing a 100 to 200,000,000,000 in revenue in 2829, then now we're in the zone of responsible.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Fri, 07 Nov 2025 22:30:01 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/13d8c70e-131b-442f-abd6-68b88af7cc60/ https://minutesof.com/q/13d8c70e-131b-442f-abd6-68b88af7cc60/ “if you guys went public at 10 times 100,000,000,000 in revenue, right, which would be I think a lower multiple than Facebook went public at, a lower multiple than a lot of other big consumer companies went public at, That would put you at a trillion dollars.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Fri, 31 Oct 2025 23:11:44 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/7ba5e596-8d06-4fd7-8dfd-0b2dd71427fa/ https://minutesof.com/q/7ba5e596-8d06-4fd7-8dfd-0b2dd71427fa/ “There are over a thousand of those in Silicon Valley, over a billion dollars that are trying to raise capital right now.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Wed, 15 Oct 2025 12:48:34 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/3302a3bc-c63c-4b44-b281-26e8b2841b9f/ https://minutesof.com/q/3302a3bc-c63c-4b44-b281-26e8b2841b9f/ “So the consensus for next year is 250,000,000,000 of data center revenue. If they grow up 50%, that's gonna be closer to 300,000,000,000 or closer to $8 a share.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 28 Aug 2025 17:12:24 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/514dfc4a-c96f-43fe-9093-1cc71ada73ed/ https://minutesof.com/q/514dfc4a-c96f-43fe-9093-1cc71ada73ed/ “And it showed that historically, you bought the S and P when the PE ratio was 23, in every case, there were no exceptions.” — Howard Marks, My First Million Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:36:27 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/ef80dc2d-4fab-4c3c-8060-7f9e75eedb8a/ https://minutesof.com/q/ef80dc2d-4fab-4c3c-8060-7f9e75eedb8a/ “What has xAI actually done to deserve their prior funding rounds? They haven't released a leading edge model, and yet their evaluation's higher than Anthropic today.” — Dylan Patel, No Priors: AI, Machine Learning, Tech, & Startups Thu, 14 Aug 2025 10:01:35 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/95735eb1-3b11-4a30-999c-801d98dfe784/ https://minutesof.com/q/95735eb1-3b11-4a30-999c-801d98dfe784/ “I remember when you joined OpenAI and I asked you the question, can OpenAI get to a trillion dollars, right in total value?” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Sat, 21 Jun 2025 15:51:43 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/77311223-0022-4c88-b2ea-cbfb1b759659/ https://minutesof.com/q/77311223-0022-4c88-b2ea-cbfb1b759659/ “the largest company, Microsoft, today is like 3 and onetwo trillion. Let's say that Microsoft, I don't know, doubles in ten years. It would only be growing at 7% per year.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/2a330d71-7d66-4678-b197-11584fdbeddf/ https://minutesof.com/q/2a330d71-7d66-4678-b197-11584fdbeddf/ “we're like Bitcoin at two. And I'm like, god, so Bitcoin represents two out of 500 of the net worth of the world or 400, whatever. It moves a little bit. Could it be four?” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Fri, 20 Jun 2025 00:11:39 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/4ac7b5bb-d43b-4aa9-aa5d-338c2683c4c6/ https://minutesof.com/q/4ac7b5bb-d43b-4aa9-aa5d-338c2683c4c6/ “I talked about Henry Blodgett's 400 call on Amazon back in 2000. Right? What do you think Amazon is today relative to the $400 call that Henry Blodgett made in 2000?” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 12 Jun 2025 17:50:39 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/94e0bd25-ff4f-417c-bed8-b18d31825e65/ https://minutesof.com/q/94e0bd25-ff4f-417c-bed8-b18d31825e65/ “Amazon, if you recall, Bill, and I know you do, it peaked at $243 a share in 1998. But at the start of 2000, it's at $150 a share.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 05 Jun 2025 23:20:47 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/87ff320f-836b-487e-9716-16a70df9701f/ https://minutesof.com/q/87ff320f-836b-487e-9716-16a70df9701f/ “When uncertainty goes up, discount rates go up, risk premiums go up, multiples come down, markets come down. That's that's the explanation for the last four weeks in the market.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Wed, 12 Mar 2025 13:00:04 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/e4af539d-f8f1-4c5f-b0ca-826f690d71ec/ https://minutesof.com/q/e4af539d-f8f1-4c5f-b0ca-826f690d71ec/ “So you would have to think that there would be 70% PE compression from here or that their revenue was going to fall by 70% or that their earnings were going to fall by 70%.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Mon, 23 Dec 2024 20:12:56 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/5c48c817-77e3-4f85-bd41-b5ef717ca95b/ https://minutesof.com/q/5c48c817-77e3-4f85-bd41-b5ef717ca95b/ “average users, which we estimate is twice the amount Google had at the time of its And if you look at the multiple of the business, if you believe 10,000,000,000 next year it's about 15 times the forward revenue, which is about the multiple of Google and Meta at the time of their IPO.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Sun, 13 Oct 2024 10:30:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/1f8a7996-6ead-45e9-9649-8e8c27acd7c8/ https://minutesof.com/q/1f8a7996-6ead-45e9-9649-8e8c27acd7c8/ “If that trajectory were to continue, right, that'd give you like roughly $10,000,000,000 next year. And the round's rumored to be at $150,000,000,000 so that's about 15 times forward revenue.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Wed, 25 Sep 2024 16:21:38 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/ec7e294c-a1fa-4fb3-97ad-186c8e426eb9/ https://minutesof.com/q/ec7e294c-a1fa-4fb3-97ad-186c8e426eb9/ “He said to me, the IPO market is slow in volume terms for lack of supply, not lack of demand. And I've been making this case that the IPO window is wide open.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 18 Apr 2024 17:23:12 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/bf18b9e3-70e1-4349-8cd1-986feb0867c2/ https://minutesof.com/q/bf18b9e3-70e1-4349-8cd1-986feb0867c2/ “ARR stands for annual recurring revenue. And recurring revenue, like a monopoly cable subscription, gets a really high multiple. That's why softwares have gotten high multiples. They're very predictable.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 21 Mar 2024 21:32:49 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/e448f8c2-4b61-45ee-8832-d984d469788d/ https://minutesof.com/q/e448f8c2-4b61-45ee-8832-d984d469788d/ “Okay, so the consensus forecast that has the stock at $700 a share assumes, if you believe this TAM to be accurate, assumes that their share will go from 55% today to 26% in 2028.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 22 Feb 2024 12:20:31 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/92f29f74-0348-4086-9b6f-4803f4a5053e/ https://minutesof.com/q/92f29f74-0348-4086-9b6f-4803f4a5053e/ “Whether your rule of 40 or a multiple of revenue, those are shorthands for getting at the multiple of free cash flow.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/9125ff81-84ed-4357-b4b8-aca5992d1699/ https://minutesof.com/q/9125ff81-84ed-4357-b4b8-aca5992d1699/ “What this chart shows is that, you know, again during dessert period, right growth was a huge multiplier like that's all people cared about.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/cd3e5ff6-4c65-4083-a0a4-eb3c90fc95d4/ https://minutesof.com/q/cd3e5ff6-4c65-4083-a0a4-eb3c90fc95d4/ “I've always said that Silicon Valley has the crudest kind of least intelligent view of valuation. They always rush to price to revenue because it's easy and because quite frankly, it's easier to be optimistic.” — Bill Gurley, BG2 Pod Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:35:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/408552e2-6237-4734-ba4f-fbcec9691df0/ https://minutesof.com/q/408552e2-6237-4734-ba4f-fbcec9691df0/ “It was overvalued despite the fact it was trading at 20 times earnings, its lowest multiple in history. Now it's up 25 or 30% after opening, the year down.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:54:25 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/286e7734-0ac5-4983-b73a-09725cf6a2e0/ https://minutesof.com/q/286e7734-0ac5-4983-b73a-09725cf6a2e0/ “The market's assigning a 20 times multiple to the company. So that's effectively an implied valuation of negative $120 per share for Reality Labs.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Fri, 02 Feb 2024 18:00:57 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/e8218527-2642-44e5-b79d-58d6b8b66ee9/ https://minutesof.com/q/e8218527-2642-44e5-b79d-58d6b8b66ee9/ “Meta was trading at six times fully taxed earnings, right? And so unless you were doing the work” — Brad Gerstner, iConnections Wed, 31 Jan 2024 17:38:34 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/311c6aee-e4dc-4484-969a-fe01d2583e1e/ https://minutesof.com/q/311c6aee-e4dc-4484-969a-fe01d2583e1e/ “So if you wanna express that bet, right, which is AI leadership at 25 to 30 times earnings, which is consistent with historical averages for NVIDIA.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Mon, 29 Jan 2024 23:20:37 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/3cbafc48-1c09-438b-93f5-2057d942c6f1/ https://minutesof.com/q/3cbafc48-1c09-438b-93f5-2057d942c6f1/ “So NVIDIA ended last year at 20 times earnings. Its lowest multiple of earnings it's ever traded at, despite the fact that it's the the the purest play AI name in in the space.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Mon, 29 Jan 2024 23:20:37 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/4a9c8673-8651-4fc6-baef-6cb729227567/ https://minutesof.com/q/4a9c8673-8651-4fc6-baef-6cb729227567/ “I think the return to target in our portfolio is 20 to 30%, whereas the start of last year, Bill, it was like 80%.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:07:19 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/a99d2717-a496-436b-9205-164558f77226/ https://minutesof.com/q/a99d2717-a496-436b-9205-164558f77226/ “I do think that it is a really important thing that you're pointing out, which is at a very minimum, I think we can say that the participation of MANG, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Google, is distorting the price in the market in a way that wouldn't occur if it was all arm's length transaction with financial investors.” — Brad Gerstner, BG2 Pod Thu, 25 Jan 2024 16:07:19 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/81e44dda-ccc3-495f-add2-6334ff802d7c/ https://minutesof.com/q/81e44dda-ccc3-495f-add2-6334ff802d7c/ “I wouldn't have had to spend money like a fool. They nail it yet again. The negative reflexivity that occurs when you have a headline valuation,” — Brad Gerstner, This Week in Startups Fri, 12 Jan 2024 05:28:40 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/44792d43-c148-4c74-bbdb-1095c0017913/ https://minutesof.com/q/44792d43-c148-4c74-bbdb-1095c0017913/ “A 100% of our returns this year are from 10 stocks which constitute 35% of the S and P that traded an average PE of 50.” — Marc Rowan, Bloomberg Television Tue, 05 Dec 2023 15:03:34 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/697e5c02-faa7-4c9b-aff9-98b36ecbf1ff/ https://minutesof.com/q/697e5c02-faa7-4c9b-aff9-98b36ecbf1ff/ “I can then plot a distribution of likely outcomes. How many companies have ever in the history of Silicon Valley been worth durably more than $100,000,000,000” — Brad Gerstner, Elad Gil Thu, 09 Nov 2023 16:27:02 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/5a8074dc-e4ca-4f4c-be62-c6147d860ec3/ https://minutesof.com/q/5a8074dc-e4ca-4f4c-be62-c6147d860ec3/ “But the fact of the matter is on consensus forecast for next year, it's trading just over $20 or 20 times earnings.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:10:17 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/c652313a-93c1-4d0c-bdfb-37d58f79b57a/ https://minutesof.com/q/c652313a-93c1-4d0c-bdfb-37d58f79b57a/ “OpenAI at $90,000,000,000 may be ahead of itself just like we saw stocks get ahead of themselves in 2021, but it doesn't mean that AI itself is is not gonna be profound.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:10:17 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/e71da3f1-0b62-4edd-a895-68d3f45635ad/ https://minutesof.com/q/e71da3f1-0b62-4edd-a895-68d3f45635ad/ “But much like the Internet in 9899, where there was overpricing in the short run, we dramatically underestimated the impact it was going to have over the preceding decade.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Thu, 28 Sep 2023 19:10:17 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/38bbf970-6ee5-4084-b2ad-3d1874d22bbb/ https://minutesof.com/q/38bbf970-6ee5-4084-b2ad-3d1874d22bbb/ “these this valuation disparity that they just talked about is a real issue, and it takes a while for people to come around. Like, they've been told, you're worth this.” — Bill Gurley, CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/a676a033-c6a2-43ee-b70e-118f9147860d/ https://minutesof.com/q/a676a033-c6a2-43ee-b70e-118f9147860d/ “They can't magically wish for the valuation they want to add because it's not actually related to how they're operating.” — Bill Gurley, CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/159bc233-8525-4df2-816c-c58371cc0c0b/ https://minutesof.com/q/159bc233-8525-4df2-816c-c58371cc0c0b/ “Like, it just happened. There was massive multiple contraction writ large across the industry, and the companies have to navigate it.” — Bill Gurley, CNBC Television Mon, 11 Sep 2023 16:11:42 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/c66de8b8-e3f9-40fd-a73a-2f9f533d5c9e/ https://minutesof.com/q/c66de8b8-e3f9-40fd-a73a-2f9f533d5c9e/ “There was some you know, there's a report out this week that lots of people comment on Twitter where public markets were down 50% and private marks were down, I don't know, five to 10%.” — Brad Gerstner, All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/df3ad1d2-f935-45d5-8834-916bffcf04e9/ https://minutesof.com/q/df3ad1d2-f935-45d5-8834-916bffcf04e9/ “I just read Wiz raised more money. It's got $200,000,000 ARR raised at 10,000,000,000. So those markets are definitely” — Brad Gerstner, All-In Podcast Fri, 11 Aug 2023 06:23:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/a4504abe-8c86-4a84-904b-add0326ed627/ https://minutesof.com/q/a4504abe-8c86-4a84-904b-add0326ed627/ “Everything that was purchased prior to 2022 is today worth less. The change in cap rates, the change in interest rates has simply made the market worth less.” — Marc Rowan, Barron's Thu, 11 May 2023 15:16:29 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/a5c0968c-05ee-4ca2-baa4-d7308f8bbcc4/ https://minutesof.com/q/a5c0968c-05ee-4ca2-baa4-d7308f8bbcc4/ “I think two thirds of the companies that went public since COVID are trading at less than the cash they raised to date as public companies now.” — David Friedberg, Consumer VC with Mike Gelb Sun, 30 Apr 2023 12:51:57 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/c6c852c0-882a-4483-a6da-1c564e61d18b/ https://minutesof.com/q/c6c852c0-882a-4483-a6da-1c564e61d18b/ “what was their motivation to take such a dilutive round, know, the 10,000,000,000 at what was the valuation at 30?” — Brad Gerstner, All-In Podcast Fri, 03 Mar 2023 18:43:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/5ad1586a-d94a-4223-8d91-97a6689f9853/ https://minutesof.com/q/5ad1586a-d94a-4223-8d91-97a6689f9853/ “If it's a 16 multiple, in those days you would have said great going from twenty ten. We talked about those days. I go to twelve, sixteen, that's a 33% increase.” — David Tepper, CNBC Television Thu, 22 Dec 2022 14:39:54 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/7803d44c-a9db-43ce-8205-b01868cbc581/ https://minutesof.com/q/7803d44c-a9db-43ce-8205-b01868cbc581/ “I saw somebody else on your show the other day, they had a two twenty price to two twenty earnings estimates for the S and P.” — David Tepper, CNBC Television Thu, 22 Dec 2022 14:39:54 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/40e6f4aa-d7b0-4899-8bcf-9546b1260b89/ https://minutesof.com/q/40e6f4aa-d7b0-4899-8bcf-9546b1260b89/ “what really values companies, you know, it's typically a discounted cash flows and so now all of a sudden the buy side's asking SaaS companies about net dollar retention, about long term operating margin, about whether their free cash flow is greater or less than their net income, about SBC as a percentage of free cash flow.” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/97ef2aba-7191-44d0-8ab6-f8fa9c7a9df8/ https://minutesof.com/q/97ef2aba-7191-44d0-8ab6-f8fa9c7a9df8/ “price to revenue is like this really crude valuation tool, it's like the crudest you could possibly have.” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 05:10:20 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/39a63540-50d9-49f7-b60b-83a040ae859c/ https://minutesof.com/q/39a63540-50d9-49f7-b60b-83a040ae859c/ “Public software companies over 2,000,000,000 in revenue, we got to 21. Okay? There are only 21 that are worth more than $25,000,000,000” — Brad Gerstner, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/c0036f3a-cf91-49ec-82e1-e592fc3f1c9f/ https://minutesof.com/q/c0036f3a-cf91-49ec-82e1-e592fc3f1c9f/ “And so what really values companies, you know, it's typically a discounted cash flows. And so now all of a sudden, the buy side's asking SaaS companies about net dollar retention, about long term operating margin, about whether their free cash flow is greater or less than their net income, about SBC as a percentage of free cash” — Bill Gurley, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/4d290681-0331-4424-8f28-5f37703b0250/ https://minutesof.com/q/4d290681-0331-4424-8f28-5f37703b0250/ “the iron law of investing is interest rates. A 1% change in rates leads to a 15 or 20% change in a multiple.” — Brad Gerstner, All-In Podcast Mon, 23 May 2022 04:51:01 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/4a53d38b-1ab0-4b95-85e3-08b3a4fadbe7/ https://minutesof.com/q/4a53d38b-1ab0-4b95-85e3-08b3a4fadbe7/ “it's not what you buy, it's what you pay that determines whether your investment is risky or not. B, that good investing is not a matter of buying good things, but buying things well.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/16335ebd-315f-44ea-97e4-89912095cbac/ https://minutesof.com/q/16335ebd-315f-44ea-97e4-89912095cbac/ “And if you bought those stocks, the day I got there in '69, and you held them firmly for five years, you lost almost all your money.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/d0b451ea-1184-44f3-8d79-faf5b736092b/ https://minutesof.com/q/d0b451ea-1184-44f3-8d79-faf5b736092b/ “A high quality asset can be priced so high that it's risky. I started work at Citibank in September 1969, when I got out of Chicago Booth.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/daea9c72-cc8e-4255-bd8b-97eb4a9c65bd/ https://minutesof.com/q/daea9c72-cc8e-4255-bd8b-97eb4a9c65bd/ “And yesterday in preparing for this, I was looking at some of the stocks that are outliers on price to sales and lemonade, unity and Palantir, which have come in 60% are still at 20 times over sales.” — Bill Gurley, CNBC Television Wed, 12 May 2021 16:26:01 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/dd503956-1576-48c7-905f-de3208660ae4/ https://minutesof.com/q/dd503956-1576-48c7-905f-de3208660ae4/ “And I said, well, what does Airbnb have to accomplish to earn out this valuation that it has?” — Bill Gurley, CNBC Television Wed, 12 May 2021 16:26:01 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/2fe26062-d6e3-480c-a0c1-dc602e6cb49e/ https://minutesof.com/q/2fe26062-d6e3-480c-a0c1-dc602e6cb49e/ “You can believe the next three months that we're likely to have more multiple compression in the public markets. Right?” — Brad Gerstner, All-In Podcast Sat, 17 Apr 2021 02:12:13 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/55002a1e-d10f-4459-b878-14704edb3db8/ https://minutesof.com/q/55002a1e-d10f-4459-b878-14704edb3db8/ “If you look at the multiple expansion that's occurred, it's almost the identical mirror image of the multiple contraction that occurred in the fall of twenty eighteen. In Q4 twenty eighteen, we didn't have COVID.” — Brad Gerstner, Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/0921d69d-1510-4317-a6f7-1afd8a7e5b45/ https://minutesof.com/q/0921d69d-1510-4317-a6f7-1afd8a7e5b45/ “No growth investor would listen to that and think that there's anything unusual about a company growing well over a 100% in the most strategic location of all of software.” — Brad Gerstner, Invest Like the Best Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/729c0b3e-080d-4004-8072-b161f297cea3/ https://minutesof.com/q/729c0b3e-080d-4004-8072-b161f297cea3/ “If I reduce my discount rate on any growth software company by 150 bps over the next ten years, the multiple will go up by two to three turns, right?” — Brad Gerstner, Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/69900875-de92-41a1-8afb-4b6d524e883a/ https://minutesof.com/q/69900875-de92-41a1-8afb-4b6d524e883a/ “We were within probably a 100 or $200,000,000 of doing a meaningful pre IPO round in Zoom. The company was valued at around $5,000,000,000 compared to where it is two years later.” — Brad Gerstner, Invest Like the Best Tue, 23 Jun 2020 09:30:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/97066165-c35e-45f0-b4eb-65d90edcb697/ https://minutesof.com/q/97066165-c35e-45f0-b4eb-65d90edcb697/ “Valuation spreads within a sector between individual stocks are at all time highs. It was a 4.5 standard deviation relative to the norm only a few days ago.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/52bd55ad-4b86-41b8-8e39-7317f6fb664e/ https://minutesof.com/q/52bd55ad-4b86-41b8-8e39-7317f6fb664e/ “You could just measure search in a way you can't measure slotting fees. Anything you can measure generally gets, in some ways, may be overvalued in today's Internet world.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/6cfa5495-08e9-4aa7-82a5-14c3cb024860/ https://minutesof.com/q/6cfa5495-08e9-4aa7-82a5-14c3cb024860/ “Facebook was roughly 7% of consumers' time spent across all mediums in The United States. And it was just under 4% of advertising dollars.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/1d5c3f92-851f-462b-90f8-b51a5cade07f/ https://minutesof.com/q/1d5c3f92-851f-462b-90f8-b51a5cade07f/ “It's critical in growth investing to assume multiple compression. It doesn't always happen, but you want to be paid based on business outcomes and assume valuation is not part of the outcome.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Tue, 26 Nov 2019 10:30:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/77a223ec-202e-4ba8-8868-1f88272385ef/ https://minutesof.com/q/77a223ec-202e-4ba8-8868-1f88272385ef/ “So the first slide is about underpricing, and this is solely looking at the difference between the price that the stocks handed out to the night before and the close the next day.” — Bill Gurley, CNBC Television Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:45:20 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/1bf09541-d7e4-4d2c-8bb6-66e0072f0170/ https://minutesof.com/q/1bf09541-d7e4-4d2c-8bb6-66e0072f0170/ “I've always felt Silicon Valley has a very crude understanding of valuation. Most entrepreneurs think they all deserve 10 times revenue and also with zero regard for what the revenue is.” — Bill Gurley, Invest Like the Best Tue, 02 Jul 2019 09:30:00 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/98d0d61f-6d31-4861-8d21-ad450161b7ae/ https://minutesof.com/q/98d0d61f-6d31-4861-8d21-ad450161b7ae/ “the amount of dollars available to successful late stage private companies is unbelievable. And the behavior that you'll see for the competition in those dollars is very reminiscent of the late 90s.” — Bill Gurley, TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/e68fdfc9-4bf3-47d2-8f48-2f310315d004/ https://minutesof.com/q/e68fdfc9-4bf3-47d2-8f48-2f310315d004/ “the late stage private market continues to be the most frothy thing I've seen since the late '90s.” — Bill Gurley, TechCrunch Mon, 29 Apr 2013 15:27:35 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/cd98e610-22e8-4593-a199-5b61e58a7a4b/ https://minutesof.com/q/cd98e610-22e8-4593-a199-5b61e58a7a4b/ “I think if you look back, could say over the past two years, the most reckless investment behavior we've seen since the bubble was the late stage private market of the past two years.” — Bill Gurley, GigaOm Fri, 14 Dec 2012 18:03:42 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/fc7960a7-e0b3-4db6-85f1-768ff8ba2f19/ https://minutesof.com/q/fc7960a7-e0b3-4db6-85f1-768ff8ba2f19/ “And a very, very smart man, Yuri Milner makes a bet on Facebook at a price that seems fairly high.” — Bill Gurley, GigaOm Fri, 14 Dec 2012 18:03:42 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/618aafb5-890f-4d28-83f1-d1c2c9249819/ https://minutesof.com/q/618aafb5-890f-4d28-83f1-d1c2c9249819/ “These these might be these might be the least informed investment actions in in our history. And so I don't know that you can pay too much attention to the price because they're very uninformed.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Originals Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:15:50 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/b8da8232-6ed3-4096-995a-a207b098d14c/ https://minutesof.com/q/b8da8232-6ed3-4096-995a-a207b098d14c/ “I mean, you you could have more financial information on a thinly traded pink sheet Canadian public company than you have.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Originals Fri, 23 Mar 2012 16:15:50 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/be64aa0b-ac89-425a-98c8-c96afd8fb140/ https://minutesof.com/q/be64aa0b-ac89-425a-98c8-c96afd8fb140/ “One that one that I think people really should focus on is where, especially for these Internet businesses, is whether traffic is organic or bought.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Originals Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:20:44 +0000 valuation https://minutesof.com/q/5b9b5710-3c8a-48a0-9706-647ea75484cf/ https://minutesof.com/q/5b9b5710-3c8a-48a0-9706-647ea75484cf/ “I think another interesting characteristic of that, in my mind, the IPO market's paying much higher valuations in the m and a market right now.” — Bill Gurley, Bloomberg Originals Sat, 11 Jun 2011 01:20:44 +0000 valuation