volatility: everyone on the record — The Minutes https://minutesof.com/on/volatility/ Everyone on the record about volatility: 9 verbatim quotes from 5 people, April 2020 to March 2026, in one chronology, each with a timestamp and a link to… en Sun, 30 Aug 2026 22:33:20 +0000 John Williams: Williams notes productivity growth swings from minus 2 to 7 percent yearly versus 2 percent lon https://minutesof.com/q/a8d917de-05e8-4dfa-9e28-7be55b0b50eb/ https://minutesof.com/q/a8d917de-05e8-4dfa-9e28-7be55b0b50eb/ “Year-over-year productivity growth swings from minus 2 percent to 7 percent, compared to the long-run average of just over 2 percent ( Figure 1 ).” — John Williams, NY Fed speeches volatility Howard Marks: Marks quotes Buffett preferring lumpy 15% returns over smooth 12% if you can survive volatility. https://minutesof.com/q/6e047415-6c67-4fe8-9c68-c948c5d2db59/ https://minutesof.com/q/6e047415-6c67-4fe8-9c68-c948c5d2db59/ “And if you can survive long enough to enjoy the long term benefit of the lumpy 15, it beats the hell out of the smooth 12.” — Howard Marks, Pepperdine University Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:34:48 +0000 volatility Howard Marks: Marks quotes Buffett preferring a lumpy 15% return over a smooth 12%, challenging excessive focu https://minutesof.com/q/e289166f-4e1c-4214-a363-e80a1f175b0d/ https://minutesof.com/q/e289166f-4e1c-4214-a363-e80a1f175b0d/ “And I would say to people, if you'd rather have a smooth 12 than a lumpy 15, you have to ask yourself what's going on.” — Howard Marks, Brookfield Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:35:50 +0000 volatility Marc Rowan: Rowan says investors use levered lending to reduce risk compared to equities and high yield bonds. https://minutesof.com/q/63e54117-d623-41d3-87b1-ddc8abba6c2a/ https://minutesof.com/q/63e54117-d623-41d3-87b1-ddc8abba6c2a/ “We don't think anything of Nvidia or the S and P going up or down 10 or 15%, and yet one private credit loan or one broadly syndicated loan defaults and people lose their mind.” — Marc Rowan, Yahoo Finance Sun, 21 Dec 2025 16:00:06 +0000 volatility Marc Rowan: Rowan contrasts tolerance for equity volatility with outsized reaction to single private credit de https://minutesof.com/q/fecce4bc-8364-47c1-a56f-e753de61de9a/ https://minutesof.com/q/fecce4bc-8364-47c1-a56f-e753de61de9a/ “We don't think anything of Nvidia or the S and P going up or down 10 or 15%, and yet one private credit loan or one broadly syndicated loan defaults and people lose their mind.” — Marc Rowan, Yahoo Finance Wed, 10 Dec 2025 23:30:16 +0000 volatility Brad Gerstner: Gerstner notes NVIDIA dropped to $92 on tariffs but has recovered to $180. https://minutesof.com/q/b0737eda-47d6-4150-a627-fe536a0c84a8/ https://minutesof.com/q/b0737eda-47d6-4150-a627-fe536a0c84a8/ “Remember the deep sea moment? Stock stock was down 25%. And then on the tariff moment, the stock got down to $92 a share. It's at a 180 today.” — Brad Gerstner, CNBC Television Wed, 15 Oct 2025 12:48:34 +0000 volatility Howard Marks: Marks states risk cannot be quantified in advance and historical volatility is not a good risk i https://minutesof.com/q/1a96140a-13bf-4b7d-9744-5af0dde7a0be/ https://minutesof.com/q/1a96140a-13bf-4b7d-9744-5af0dde7a0be/ “risk is unquantifiable in advance. You can make reference to the historical volatility, the historical standard deviation, but number one, that's not a very good indicator of risk.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 volatility Howard Marks: I think that one of the things you're taught here is that volatility is a measure of risk. Volat https://minutesof.com/q/d357fd54-5066-4e06-8a80-9c0109dfd89a/ https://minutesof.com/q/d357fd54-5066-4e06-8a80-9c0109dfd89a/ “I think that one of the things you're taught here is that volatility is a measure of risk. Volatility is risk.” — Howard Marks, Wharton School Mon, 02 May 2022 13:42:01 +0000 volatility Gavin Baker: Baker says valuation spreads within sectors reached 4.5 standard deviations, now at 3.5 standard https://minutesof.com/q/97066165-c35e-45f0-b4eb-65d90edcb697/ https://minutesof.com/q/97066165-c35e-45f0-b4eb-65d90edcb697/ “Valuation spreads within a sector between individual stocks are at all time highs. It was a 4.5 standard deviation relative to the norm only a few days ago.” — Gavin Baker, Invest Like the Best Thu, 02 Apr 2020 09:30:00 +0000 volatility