Gurley says most VCs are so focused on AI that non-AI companies can't raise money at any valuation.
“So you really have this massive black, white, have, have not situation where the AI companies are raising money at crazy valuations and the non AI companies can't raise money at any valuation.”
Gurley warns that high valuations represent discounted future expectations, creating risk for founders.
“The other thing that founders should always realize that they unfortunately, especially young ones, don't understand. Valuations represent discounted future expectations.”
Gurley states winning companies now raise $400-500 million minimum before considering going public.
“Today, every company that is being identified as a winner is ingesting 400 or $500,000,000 minimum before they even think about going public, if they're ever gonna think about that.”
Gurley claims 98% of VCs focus only on AI and non-AI valuations were cut in half in five weeks.
“98% of venture capitalists are only looking at AI and they're AI all day long, they don't wanna see another business and and and in the past five weeks, the valuations on the non AI companies have been cut in half and so that mentality is gonna be reinforced even more and so there's just no oxygen.”
Gurley reports 98% of VCs focus solely on AI and non-AI company valuations halved in five weeks.
“98% of venture capitalists are only looking at AI and they're AI all day long, they don't wanna see another business and and and in the past five weeks, the valuations on the non AI companies have been cut in half”
Gurley states there are approximately a thousand private companies valued over a billion dollars pre-LLM.
“There's somewhere around a thousand. So these are a thousand private companies that have raised money over a billion dollars.”
Gurley identifies approximately 1,000 private companies valued over $1 billion pre-LLM era.
“So these are a thousand private companies that have raised money over a billion dollars. And Chad GBD told me it was $12.50. NBCA says 900. Let's just say it's near a thousand.”
Gurley observes tech valuations rise slowly but crash immediately, and he has now seen this pattern three times.
“it tends to go up slowly, and it tends to crash immediately. And so this is the third time I've seen valuations crash,”
Gurley tells entrepreneurs the 2020-21 boom was a fantasy, not normal, and current conditions are reality.
“Then I'm not the only one, there's other VC's getting, this is normal dude. Like that was a fantasy you were in and you need to forget it fast, but you can't.”
Gurley states most acquisitions are $20-70 million, but venture backing raises expectations to $150 million or more.
“The number one type of acquisition that the big companies like to do is twenty to seventy million dollars and the minute you take venture, they help you raise the B and all of a sudden everyone's expectation is it's got to be 150 or more or we're not saying yes.”