Gerstner predicts AI companies ending the year over $100B could triple to quintuple revenue next year.
“If these guys end the year over 100,000,000,000, I think that they're on a revenue trajectory that they could three to five x again next year.”
Gerstner cites NVIDIA forecast of $200B revenue this year growing to $350B in five years, equating to specific gigawatts.
“This is the NVIDIA sell side forecast. Okay? Forecast this year is for about 200,000,000,000 in revenues, growing to about 350,000,000,000 in revenues over the next five years.”
Gerstner calculates Microsoft could reach $7 trillion market cap in ten years growing at just 7% annually.
“the largest company, Microsoft, today is like 3 and onetwo trillion. Let's say that Microsoft, I don't know, doubles in ten years. It would only be growing at 7% per year.”
Gerstner states consensus Nvidia estimate for next year is around $3.50 per share.
“the consensus estimate for next year for Nvidia, I think is around $3.50 per share.”
Gerstner's Nvidia estimate is closer to $5 per share, ahead of consensus since fall 2022.
“we're we're closer to $5 a share. We've been ahead of the consensus estimate since the fall of twenty two.”
Gerstner says professional analysts predicted NVIDIA data center revenue would decline 6 percent, highlighting how wrong forecasts were.
“The consensus estimate for NVIDIA this year was that data center growth revenue growth was gonna be negative 6%. Right? That's the pros. They got it that wrong.”