Gerstner explains software stocks fell because AI uncertainty reduced visibility, lowering multiples from 35x free cash flow.
“Give them 35 times free cash flow because I had that level of predictability. It was like a government bond. It was a sure thing.”
Gerstner says software multiples fell from 17x forward revenue in 2021 to 4.2x today, a generational low.
“Look at that peak in 2021. Right? We're almost 17 times forward revenue. Today, we're at at about 4.2 times. So we're at a generational low in terms of the the multiple for software.”
Gerstner says software multiples fell from 17x forward revenue in 2021 to 4.2x today, a generational low.
“We're almost 17 times forward revenue. Today, we're at at about 4.2 times. So we're at a generational low in terms of the the multiple for software.”
Gerstner states a 1% change in interest rates causes 15-20% change in valuation multiples.
“the iron law of investing is interest rates. A 1% change in rates leads to a 15 or 20% change in a multiple.”
Gerstner reports Altimeter's software index expanded from 11x to 14.5x and internet index from 23x to 33x.
“I feel obliged to do that. We started the year in our gross software index at 11 times. Now we're at about 14 and a half times two year forward.”
Gerstner reports software multiples expanded from 11x to 14.5x and internet from 23x to 33x in 2020.
“We started the year in our gross software index at 11 times. Now we're at about 14 and a half times two year forward.”
Gerstner notes internet multiples expanded from 23x to 33x in 2020, mirroring 2018 Q4 contraction without COVID.
“If you look at the multiple expansion that's occurred, it's almost the identical mirror image of the multiple contraction that occurred in the fall of twenty eighteen. In Q4 twenty eighteen, we didn't have COVID.”
Gerstner calculates that 150 bps lower discount rates should add two to three turns to software multiples.
“If I reduce my discount rate on any growth software company by 150 bps over the next ten years, the multiple will go up by two to three turns, right?”