Gerstner notes NVIDIA dropped to $92 on tariffs but has recovered to $180.
“Remember the deep sea moment? Stock stock was down 25%. And then on the tariff moment, the stock got down to $92 a share. It's at a 180 today.”
Gerstner recalculated tariffs from original $800 billion estimate on Liberation Day to new figure.
“So remember, I came on here on liberation day, and I held up the list of tariffs that that that were on the poster board that Trump showed.”
Gerstner now forecasts $300 billion in tariffs, 4x last year's $77 billion revenue.
“Okay? I just told you that last year tariffs were 77,000,000,000. So that's still a four x increase in tariff revenue,”
Gerstner says CEO uncertainty from tariff negotiations forces real decisions on pricing and supply chains.
“They gotta make real life decisions about what do I do with prices, what do I do with my supply chain, etcetera.”
Gerstner argues White House is moving fast because delaying tariff resolution risks 2026 midterms with recession.
“But that's why I think that the speaker and the White House are moving at lightning speed. They know this can't drift into the summer or fall, or you run the risk of starting 2026.”
Gerstner suggests Trump believes America peaked during 1880s high-tariff era before income tax replaced tariff revenue.
“So prior to 1910, which is when we got the income tax, right, the vast majority,”
Gerstner cites Scott Bessent describing Trump's tariff strategy as loaded gun that will rarely be discharged.
“His nominee to be treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has said, quote, the tariff gun will be loaded but rarely discharged, end quote.”