Patel argues doubling lithography costs only increases total chip cost by 10 percent, enabling five nanometer.
“If seven nanometer was completely economical, five nanometer, if the lithography element costs twice as much with the 1980i versus the next generation lithography tool, then that on the total chip basis doesn't cost anywhere close to that, right? Because again, the manufacturing cost of lithography is only one fourth to one fifth.”
Patel argues the unrestricted 1980i tool can reach five nanometer with only modest cost increases on total chip economics.
“And many folks including, not just myself, but many folks in the industry as well think that the 1980i could be used for five nanometer, right?”
Patel notes the unrestricted 1980i tool continues receiving upgrades through 2023, creating a regulatory loophole.
“But remember the 1980i has continued to be upgraded and there's an upgraded version in 2023, right? And that tool, sort of the line is in between those tool, right?”
Patel explains TSMC and Intel achieved seven nanometer manufacturing using older DUV lithography with multi-patterning technique.
“TSMC and Intel were able to do it with what's called multi patterning DUV, deep ultraviolet. Right? So that just means they use the DUV lithography many times, right, for simplicity's sake.”
Patel calculates doubling lithography cost only increases total chip cost 10 percent, enabling five nanometer.
“Because again, the manufacturing cost of lithography is only one fourth to one fifth. So if you double lithography costs, you're only increasing the total cost of a chip by 10%, right?”
Patel says SMIC's Shanghai fab has 45 to 50 high-end lithography tools enabling 60,000 wafers monthly at seven nanometer.
“Shanghai has anywhere from 45 to 50 high end immersion lithography tools is is what's like believed by intelligence as well as like many other folks.”
Patel says China increased lithography imports to 40% of equipment spending to stockpile before bans took effect.
“They were importing lithography at a much higher rate than that. Right? Like, 40% of their equipment imports were lithography, and they were stockpiling lithography equipment.”