Rowan argues the US is the freest trading market considering non-tariff barriers and questions why that should be permanent.
“The US is the second freest trading market in the world financially after Japan and is the freest trading market in the world considering non tariff barriers. Why is that written in stone?”
Rowan says he wouldn't have taken Trump's tariff gamble and cites short-term uncertainty and longer-term brand as risks.
“That's not a gamble I would have taken from the position we had. Having said that, short term uncertainty, that's the risk. Longer term brand, that's the risk,”
Rowan argues the US should reconsider being the freest trading market and could rank tenth or twentieth instead.
“The US is the second freest trading market in the world financially after Japan and is the freest trading market in the world considering non tariff barriers.”
Rowan quotes a leading Mexican family saying they accept tariffs if needed to make Mexico great again.
“One of the leading families said to me, if it takes tariffs to make Mexico great again, so be it.”
Rowan states he would not have employed this riskier tariff strategy, citing short-term uncertainty and long-term brand risks.
“It's not the strategy I would have employed. It's a riskier strategy than I personally would have employed. I think it has risks short term, uncertainty, longer term brand,”
Rowan reports Mexican business leader told him they support tariffs if needed to make Mexico great again.
“One of the leading families said to me, if it takes tariffs to make Mexico great again, so be it. Imagine an administration that stood up”
Rowan reports meeting 200 top Mexican business leaders who were unanimously pro-tariff, a shocking finding he shared with administration.
“And I came back and I reported to the administration to a person they were pro tariff, which is a shocking thing to say”
Rowan prescribes sequencing tariff deals with Mexico and Canada first, then budget, before addressing China and Europe.
“Four four big markets. Mexico, Canada, Europe, China. Get Mexico and Canada done first. Get your budget done.”
Rowan warns tariff strategy increases risk of financial accident and damages long-term US brand.
“Longer term brand, that's the risk, and the propensity for a financial accident has definitely gone up, but we just don't know yet.”
Rowan reports a Mexican industrialist told him they would accept tariffs to make Mexico great again.
“As one leading Mexican industrialist said to me, if it takes tariffs to make Mexico great again, so be it.”
Rowan predicts two quarters of negative growth if tariff uncertainty is not resolved.
“They do not hire. They do not make moves. We likely will cause two quarters of negative growth if we, in fact, don't resolve the uncertainty.”
Rowan warns the tariff approach has damaged the US brand for stability and predictability, with long-term costs.
“Longer term, the way we've done this, we have done damage to The US brand. The brand for stability, for predictability, for regularity. That will eventually have some cost to us.”
Rowan predicts two quarters of negative growth if tariff uncertainty continues without resolution.
“We likely will cause two quarters of negative growth if we, in fact, don't resolve the uncertainty. So until we have resolution of what the rules of the game are, it's gonna be slow.”
Rowan says immigration reform and tariffs are fractionalizing labor and goods flows in inflationary ways.
“We are, for maybe good and valid reasons, fractionalizing our labor supply through immigration reform. We're fractionalizing our flow of goods through the other tariff and other measures.”